This page is an archive of the Tweets made by the user Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco). This archive was generated on November 18, 2022. New tweets made since then, or tweets deleted prior to that date, will not appear here.
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1590032437501124609
Date: 2022-11-08 17:24:09 GMT
Body: Much love to everyone -- I'm sure the past few days have been dark for many and I hope the road ahead is brighter.
Stats: 2207 likes, 140 retweets, 165 quote tweets, 943 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1589713459452997632
Date: 2022-11-07 20:16:38 GMT
Replying to: @bruddah369 (Tweet ID: 1589712216777191425)
Body: @bruddah369 @HsakaTrades @binance @cz_binance lol
Stats: 53 likes, 0 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 21 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1589318807566581761
Date: 2022-11-06 18:08:26 GMT
Quoted tweet: @carolinecapital: A few notes on the balance sheet info that has been circulating recently:
- that specific balance sheet is for a subset of our corporate entities, we have > $10b of assets that aren’t reflected there
Body: bonkers how people just instantly 100% believe every shitty “news” story they see https://t.co/J6VXowFgKt
Stats: 922 likes, 153 retweets, 243 quote tweets, 439 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1589003612428328960
Date: 2022-11-05 21:15:58 GMT
Body: Ironically all I’ve done since getting Twitter Blue is to make Twitter green https://t.co/gLVytvcdqM
Stats: 165 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 23 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1588597451824730112
Date: 2022-11-04 18:22:01 GMT
Replying to: @aspiring__whale (Tweet ID: 1588597005110358016)
Body: @aspiring__whale @rsalame7926 shit @rsalame7926 back to the drawing board
Stats: 45 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1588426975198072833
Date: 2022-11-04 07:04:37 GMT
Replying to: @MarcTheBulll (Tweet ID: 1588426772646862851)
Body: @MarcTheBulll @GotTalentAU your instant auto-reply to my starbucks post was a lot more not-bot-seeming, this is a let down
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1588426737393598466
Date: 2022-11-04 07:03:40 GMT
Body: Friend of mine killing it on @GotTalentAU + spreading an important message at the same time, way to go https://t.co/LqjCYl3v9p
https://t.co/sFwWtcdRSU
Stats: 46 likes, 7 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1588268823509012480
Date: 2022-11-03 20:36:10 GMT
Body: My least favorite thing about myself is that I prefer Starbucks to almost every "nice" coffee place I have ever had
Stats: 146 likes, 4 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 46 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1587852355168399360
Date: 2022-11-02 17:01:16 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1587851110886346752)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/QiHZS2Xxm4
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1587638324621377536
Date: 2022-11-02 02:50:48 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1587596472396255233)
Body: @rsalame7926 🤝
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1587254617439670273
Date: 2022-11-01 01:26:05 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1587252730829176834)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/7pNdpaoH9P
Stats: 44 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1587238030955450371
Date: 2022-11-01 00:20:10 GMT
Replying to: @vahrez273 (Tweet ID: 1587235567003209732)
Body: @vahrez273 I'm always taken aback by how long Boston - NYC is by train
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1587235636091752448
Date: 2022-11-01 00:10:39 GMT
Replying to: @cobie (Tweet ID: 1587234745586683904)
Body: @cobie Back then crypto bros weren't spending six figures on pics of rocks, new market now
Stats: 121 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 13 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1587234629236543488
Date: 2022-11-01 00:06:39 GMT
Replying to: @theemilyaccount (Tweet ID: 1587234500836265984)
Body: @theemilyaccount fuck I wrote this from my cell phone
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1587234444578066432
Date: 2022-11-01 00:05:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1587232227808710656)
Body: @aranha_paul can you fix
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1587233738919927808
Date: 2022-11-01 00:03:07 GMT
Replying to: @theemilyaccount (Tweet ID: 1587232826000293890)
Body: @theemilyaccount so true
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1587232227808710656
Date: 2022-10-31 23:57:07 GMT
Body: I can't believe 20 years ago we had commercially available supersonic flight (Concorde) and just collectively decided not to anymore.
Stats: 831 likes, 27 retweets, 14 quote tweets, 105 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1586907372282613761
Date: 2022-10-31 02:26:15 GMT
Body: Will it be possible to pay extra for a verification badge that's better than other people's
Stats: 304 likes, 7 retweets, 10 quote tweets, 46 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1586442894428102656
Date: 2022-10-29 19:40:35 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: And even recently, this influenced how we bet on DOGE. We've held a long DOGE position for *months* and it's gone great -- all based on noticing how it goes up when Elon tweets:
- likely some bullish impetuses (Elon, TikTok, ETFs, etc.)
- more upside potential from liquidations https://t.co/PChKs60xbr
Body: Throwback, nice to see that DOGE still has insane liquidation-driven momentum :P https://t.co/S44WYvJgLx
Stats: 146 likes, 10 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 23 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1586435914279964672
Date: 2022-10-29 19:12:51 GMT
Replying to: @AutismCapital (Tweet ID: 1586429265364406273)
Body: @AutismCapital I think he should get another dog
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1586032860297056257
Date: 2022-10-28 16:31:15 GMT
Replying to: @vkrussell (Tweet ID: 1585977429532676096)
Body: @vkrussell @aranha_paul they were fine
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1585767021572026368
Date: 2022-10-27 22:54:54 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1585766716893966336)
Body: @rsalame7926 nevermind that one was definitely the real ryan
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1585765413564006400
Date: 2022-10-27 22:48:31 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1585762547667701760)
Body: @rsalame7926 did the AI write this
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1585419683133538304
Date: 2022-10-26 23:54:42 GMT
Replying to: @aranha_paul (Tweet ID: 1585418999952994304)
Body: @aranha_paul I don't think it says "not investment advice" often enough to convincingly imitate me
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1585418507696877569
Date: 2022-10-26 23:50:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1585418310363271173)
Body: (https://t.co/olJS5qzKQX this one)
Stats: 232 likes, 34 retweets, 25 quote tweets, 14 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1585418310363271173
Date: 2022-10-26 23:49:15 GMT
Body: I should let the AI tweet generator run this account (not advice of literally any kind) https://t.co/iE1YRIX0WI
Stats: 234 likes, 12 retweets, 8 quote tweets, 35 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1585367953452961792
Date: 2022-10-26 20:29:09 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1585363504512761856)
Body: @cmsholdings is this cyberbullying
Stats: 63 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1584956368704110597
Date: 2022-10-25 17:13:40 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1584953215790944256)
Body: @cmsholdings has it been so long that you forgot the units
Stats: 50 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1583670081527029761
Date: 2022-10-22 04:02:25 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1583655111414677505)
Body: @rsalame7926 https://t.co/tOEFH8pxiB
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1582206746839302144
Date: 2022-10-18 03:07:39 GMT
Replying to: @theemilyaccount (Tweet ID: 1582196489673400320)
Body: @theemilyaccount @tolstoybb might unfollow
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1582194866875822080
Date: 2022-10-18 02:20:26 GMT
Replying to: @theemilyaccount (Tweet ID: 1582194298132779008)
Body: @theemilyaccount @tolstoybb the xkcd forums were really something
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1581110822390333440
Date: 2022-10-15 02:32:50 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1581100509339226112)
Body: @cmsholdings why not M!!
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1580786172392927232
Date: 2022-10-14 05:02:47 GMT
Replying to: @cobie (Tweet ID: 1580785372371746817)
Body: @cobie @unusual_whales sir
Stats: 676 likes, 4 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 19 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1580757135046025216
Date: 2022-10-14 03:07:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1580756794699579393)
Body: not *investment advice, I am out of practice
Stats: 89 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 13 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1580756794699579393
Date: 2022-10-14 03:06:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1580756793319645187)
Body: (not financial advice etc.)
Stats: 63 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1580756793319645187
Date: 2022-10-14 03:06:03 GMT
Body: Increasingly seeing crypto trading-types express delta opinions about, e.g., the S&P 500.
My advice: be *super* skeptical of virtually anyone who claims to have edge delta-trading the S&P 500, very few of the world's best traders believe they have any edge doing so.
Stats: 835 likes, 50 retweets, 13 quote tweets, 64 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1579922225091600385
Date: 2022-10-11 19:49:46 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1579885201395978241)
Body: @cmsholdings a punctuation-free tweet at that!
Stats: 40 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1579652621379731458
Date: 2022-10-11 01:58:28 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1579512840255217664)
Body: @rsalame7926 I’m sorry for your loss
Stats: 33 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1577874680626778115
Date: 2022-10-06 04:13:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1577873408729153536)
Body: Also my friends made this! How
Stats: 47 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1577873408729153536
Date: 2022-10-06 04:08:30 GMT
Body: The happiest birthday I can remember! https://t.co/SM9dzY8V5V
Stats: 524 likes, 3 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 68 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1577712827552469005
Date: 2022-10-05 17:30:25 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1577643979767746560)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/dmO2J3OiGZ
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1576709287686311936
Date: 2022-10-02 23:02:42 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1576708552885882881)
Body: @rsalame7926 you need friends to play a game
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1576677973565927425
Date: 2022-10-02 20:58:16 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1576677763100004352)
Body: (that being that she thought she had J3)
Stats: 82 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 39 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1576677763100004352
Date: 2022-10-02 20:57:26 GMT
Body: Surprised that something managed to be more cringe than the chess scandal but the poker scandal takes it for me because of how obvious what actually happened is
Stats: 161 likes, 5 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 52 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1575551238774530048
Date: 2022-09-29 18:21:02 GMT
Replying to: @shadddowfax (Tweet ID: 1575550182514601989)
Body: @shadddowfax @jackshaftoes @xNFT_Backpack dont tell me how moist he is
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1575252982886645760
Date: 2022-09-28 22:35:52 GMT
Replying to: @lsv (Tweet ID: 1575242269644374016)
Body: @lsv DMU draft is such a breath of fresh air after recent formats
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1575237132146249728
Date: 2022-09-28 21:32:53 GMT
Body: Why are journalists so excited to make my stepping down about something other than a desire to go fast over the nice water
Stats: 775 likes, 41 retweets, 48 quote tweets, 120 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1575194917919281152
Date: 2022-09-28 18:45:08 GMT
Replying to: @RRunner144 (Tweet ID: 1575194822834790400)
Body: @RRunner144 @zackvoell @MattBallen4791 @GenesisTrading ooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooh
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1575193667500855296
Date: 2022-09-28 18:40:10 GMT
Replying to: @MattBallen4791 (Tweet ID: 1575191383425441792)
Body: @MattBallen4791 @GenesisTrading https://t.co/rZyzgMGIDQ
Stats: 40 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1574893737099993088
Date: 2022-09-27 22:48:21 GMT
Replying to: @ChipotleTweets (Tweet ID: 1574813962343895040)
Body: @ChipotleTweets @cmsholdings maybe now you'll be able to afford guac
Stats: 47 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1574811452489072640
Date: 2022-09-27 17:21:23 GMT
Replying to: @cobie (Tweet ID: 1574811310096793602)
Body: @cobie @cmsholdings omw
Stats: 59 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1574809830706933761
Date: 2022-09-27 17:14:56 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1574800418701545474)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/PrYIBbNOxz
Stats: 261 likes, 5 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 16 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1572972947131990016
Date: 2022-09-22 15:35:49 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1572953294980489219)
Body: @cmsholdings who saw the first car barn and was like, what this needs is a second car barn
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1572663694403698689
Date: 2022-09-21 19:06:58 GMT
Body: Crypto is so prone to news-based moves that get immediately undone, nice to see it in equities, too
Stats: 318 likes, 17 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 48 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1572045930647457793
Date: 2022-09-20 02:12:11 GMT
Replying to: @gridsthesedays (Tweet ID: 1571531471474819072)
Body: @gridsthesedays I did put "Roxanne" on, was sad that every puzzle didn't have an "airplane bathroom" shoehorned in
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1569813271942762496
Date: 2022-09-13 22:20:24 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1569808166447157248)
Body: @cmsholdings you need a hobby
Stats: 207 likes, 3 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 17 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1567975091157504000
Date: 2022-09-08 20:36:07 GMT
Replying to: @MermaidMan420 (Tweet ID: 1567974936345714688)
Body: @MermaidMan420 @SpaceX Yeah I’m working on this
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1567974599186317312
Date: 2022-09-08 20:34:10 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1567974150051856384)
Body: Sorry for not saying an earlier, my internet was terrible because I was here https://t.co/wnWcxeJVg9
Stats: 138 likes, 5 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 24 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1567974150051856384
Date: 2022-09-08 20:32:23 GMT
Quoted tweet: @jackshaftoes: An @FTX_Official Podcast episode with my friend @AlamedaTrabucco
• A career in trading
• Framework for making decisions
• Trading crypto 2018 - 2022
• @AlamedaResearch as an org.
• Happiness
• Yield farming, forks, Doge, and more!
Full ep: https://t.co/i3DMEUZZ7f https://t.co/uohCiw8Opn
Body: Thanks for having me again @jackshaftoes! Was a fun way to close out an amazing chapter https://t.co/aTWBSvRSJm
Stats: 128 likes, 8 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1567638819402293250
Date: 2022-09-07 22:19:54 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1567615934009069568)
Body: @SBF_FTX boat
Stats: 293 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 27 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1567211346084728833
Date: 2022-09-06 18:01:16 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1567210778083708929)
Body: @cmsintern @cmsholdings https://t.co/71A4QmdXoB
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1567207954897584132
Date: 2022-09-06 17:47:48 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1567206345316728837)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/lszrh9EnHg
Stats: 164 likes, 6 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1567207424225853452
Date: 2022-09-06 17:45:41 GMT
Replying to: @michellebond111 (Tweet ID: 1567206298004905988)
Body: @michellebondny1 omg you know ryan?
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1566194468642066432
Date: 2022-09-03 22:40:34 GMT
Replying to: @blue_searcher_ (Tweet ID: 1566069514214580224)
Body: @blue_searcher_ @TealFinance @0xzuberg You think an agency is behind my spongebob gifs
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1565797189187768322
Date: 2022-09-02 20:21:55 GMT
Quoted tweet: @StorybookBrawl: The Storybook Brawl World Championship is coming up, and @Parney_ has all the info you need! Come check out the full details, including a unique prize for first, right here 😎
https://t.co/1AkEzmhUDd https://t.co/KagfzUPS1r
Body: Mark my words, this game is gonna be huge -- it's been really fun to be playing a nascent game I think has big potential, and this tournament should be awesome! https://t.co/nZnZ1RsNxb
Stats: 65 likes, 3 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 28 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1565399681785528320
Date: 2022-09-01 18:02:22 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1565343972225982466)
Body: @rsalame7926 https://t.co/ut2LxVsyT0
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1565399079101861892
Date: 2022-09-01 17:59:58 GMT
Replying to: @StorybookBrawl (Tweet ID: 1565364121465397248)
Body: @StorybookBrawl mobile is the long-requested hat/ball nerf
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1565181627231346691
Date: 2022-09-01 03:35:54 GMT
Body: Life hack: catching up with old friends who DM you asking if your impersonator who asked them for money is really you
Stats: 205 likes, 5 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 30 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1564822107023974400
Date: 2022-08-31 03:47:17 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1564783126089535491)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/nwzPzhGBuX
Stats: 61 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1564668165430419456
Date: 2022-08-30 17:35:35 GMT
Body: Can anyone think of a worse expression than “the exception that proves the rule”
Stats: 263 likes, 7 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 85 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1563237569823125504
Date: 2022-08-26 18:50:54 GMT
Replying to: @aranha_paul (Tweet ID: 1563236847299756035)
Body: @aranha_paul https://t.co/uHDmMwWYSq
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1563235362302218242
Date: 2022-08-26 18:42:08 GMT
Replying to: @aranha_paul (Tweet ID: 1563234967551094785)
Body: @aranha_paul I imagine that any plane you’re in requires near-constant cleaning, not something I’d wish on anyone
Stats: 35 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562975526616444934
Date: 2022-08-26 01:29:38 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1562947456207560705)
Body: @cmsholdings beautiful
Stats: 14 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562945329313357825
Date: 2022-08-25 23:29:39 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1562939377969348610)
Body: @cmsholdings are you doing an internship under @cmsintern
Stats: 89 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562534839907414016
Date: 2022-08-24 20:18:30 GMT
Replying to: @7omCrypto (Tweet ID: 1562534374796431361)
Body: @7omCrypto @hoizhagga Eh I see how it can be read like that but it's just not the 010010011 type stuff I'm used to writing, I assure you it was meant to sound more earnest :P
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562528085018193921
Date: 2022-08-24 19:51:40 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1562526893022146562)
Body: @cmsintern sir!
Stats: 85 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562527922098823168
Date: 2022-08-24 19:51:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1562527836002390016)
Body: @rsalame7926 @habibi_alliance just kidding <3
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562527836002390016
Date: 2022-08-24 19:50:41 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1562525854810288131)
Body: @rsalame7926 @habibi_alliance yeah ryan commit for once in your life
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562527537125015553
Date: 2022-08-24 19:49:29 GMT
Replying to: @K_L0X (Tweet ID: 1562527216592113668)
Body: @K_L0X always!
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562527419461881858
Date: 2022-08-24 19:49:01 GMT
Replying to: @amytongwu (Tweet ID: 1562525561301262339)
Body: @amytongwu yeah i mean probably!
Stats: 79 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562519132947353600
Date: 2022-08-24 19:16:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1562519131236487168)
Body: I'll miss all of it -- I genuinely will. But if I've learned anything at Alameda, it's how to make good decisions -- and this is the right one for me.
Stats: 1044 likes, 33 retweets, 67 quote tweets, 173 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562519131236487168
Date: 2022-08-24 19:16:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1562519129495846913)
Body: I guess that's about it. My time at Alameda has been the most formative of my life. I've learned how to think, I've found out how far I can push myself, and I've been gifted the incredible experience of being in the trenches with lifelong friends -- and *winning*.
Stats: 494 likes, 19 retweets, 23 quote tweets, 24 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562519129495846913
Date: 2022-08-24 19:16:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1562519127797145602)
Body: I can't 100% remove myself from crypto without going into withdrawal, so I'll probably still be around here to some extent. I don't currently have other "projects" lined up or anything, but I wouldn't rule anything out in the future once I feel more "recovered."
Stats: 361 likes, 6 retweets, 8 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562519127797145602
Date: 2022-08-24 19:16:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1562519125876154371)
Body: What other things? I'm really not sure, exactly. Lately I've been really happy, spending a lot of time traveling, visiting friends and family, working on "myself" and whatnot. Also I bought a boat, that's been cool. I needed to relax, and I'm really, really happy.
Stats: 713 likes, 14 retweets, 91 quote tweets, 65 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562519125876154371
Date: 2022-08-24 19:16:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1562519124185858056)
Body: For years, I couldn't think of anything more worthwhile to do with my time than to give it to Alameda. It's honestly been a thrill to be a part of, despite being difficult and exhausting and consuming. But I've reached a point in life where I have to prioritize other things.
Stats: 291 likes, 5 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562519124185858056
Date: 2022-08-24 19:16:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1562519122465853441)
Body: Alameda is an awesome place -- the problems we solve here remain the most interesting I am aware of, and the team remains the most impressive I've ever known. It's an environment where so much is going on that work can easily become your life -- and for a long time, I LOVED that.
Stats: 296 likes, 7 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562519120720982016
Date: 2022-08-24 19:16:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1562519118741323778)
Body: Over the past few months, I have significantly reduced my role at Alameda. This happened gradually, and has most recently involved a lot of time not really working at all -- and certainly not acting as the company's CEO.
Stats: 303 likes, 8 retweets, 12 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562519118741323778
Date: 2022-08-24 19:16:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1562519116770029568)
Body: It's with the same goal that I'm announcing today that I am stepping down as co-CEO of Alameda Research -- @carolinecapital will continue on as Alameda's CEO. I will stay on as an advisor, but otherwise will not continue to have a strong day-to-day presence at the company.
Stats: 971 likes, 136 retweets, 232 quote tweets, 128 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562519116770029568
Date: 2022-08-24 19:16:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1562519114979356673)
Body: Last year, when @SBF_FTX announced that Caroline and I were Alameda's co-CEOs, the goal for all involved was to bring titles in line with reality -- the two of us had been acting as CEOs for quite some time, and we wanted our outside image to reflect that.
Stats: 337 likes, 13 retweets, 16 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1562519114979356673
Date: 2022-08-24 19:16:01 GMT
Body: On happiness:
Stats: 1472 likes, 103 retweets, 123 quote tweets, 211 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1559351440396763136
Date: 2022-08-16 01:28:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1559350306915368960)
Body: or IDK it’s sometimes the TV auto-set to the hotel’s channel, the most recent one was a radio tho
Stats: 39 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 18 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1559350306915368960
Date: 2022-08-16 01:24:19 GMT
Body: I’m not sure I dislike anything as much as when a hotel room has audio already blaring from the radio when you walk in
Stats: 145 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 72 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1555731299318411264
Date: 2022-08-06 01:43:40 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1555730620164218880)
Body: @rsalame7926 @RRunner144 010011001010111001
Stats: 12 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1555668347911426048
Date: 2022-08-05 21:33:31 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1555657996490915841)
Body: @jackshaftoes great point
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1554324121625849856
Date: 2022-08-02 04:32:03 GMT
Replying to: @litcapital (Tweet ID: 1554274915532132353)
Body: @litcapital basically yeah
Stats: 160 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1554192710134669314
Date: 2022-08-01 19:49:52 GMT
Replying to: @SOL_Lewitt (Tweet ID: 1554169698106982400)
Body: @SOL_Lewitt @rsalame7926 he hasn’t
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1553269556855971840
Date: 2022-07-30 06:41:35 GMT
Replying to: @Galois_Capital (Tweet ID: 1553234882863693824)
Body: @Galois_Capital I even know all the words and it still doesn’t really make sense to me lol
Stats: 51 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1553140898057179136
Date: 2022-07-29 22:10:20 GMT
Replying to: @StorybookBrawl (Tweet ID: 1553048052210049026)
Body: @StorybookBrawl @lsv This format taught me so much about what I've always wanted https://t.co/pBM1Mhyl9e
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1552969646558494720
Date: 2022-07-29 10:49:51 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1552965526611271681)
Body: @cmsholdings bg
Stats: 39 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1552071878977630208
Date: 2022-07-26 23:22:26 GMT
Body: It’s crazy that we can just tap credit cards now but they’re still in the form of a credit card
Stats: 549 likes, 12 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 141 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1552018856826138624
Date: 2022-07-26 19:51:45 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1552010364925214734)
Body: @cmsholdings @rsalame7926 @ericturnr @hellspawncrypto @MessariCrypto god’s work!
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1551268847415488513
Date: 2022-07-24 18:11:29 GMT
Replying to: @backbooked (Tweet ID: 1551266701697753089)
Body: @backbooked SCOOPED
https://t.co/tgSuoyxSHS
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1551173396272099330
Date: 2022-07-24 11:52:11 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1551172793198321665)
Body: @rsalame7926 what
Stats: 13 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1549867367462604801
Date: 2022-07-20 21:22:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1549867203117195264)
Body: (fundamental reasons aren’t all that exists though, of course)
Stats: 58 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1549867203117195264
Date: 2022-07-20 21:21:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1549866943108173824)
Body: Position closing doesn’t have that latter effect so I tend to think of it as basically nothing in terms of expected move for fundamental reasons
Stats: 94 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 19 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1549866943108173824
Date: 2022-07-20 21:20:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1549866432921358336)
Body: When people hear “X bought” they tend to have thoughts like “buying means UP” (and sometimes follow-on effects exist! so it’s not all wrong) but they tend not to remember “oh and maybe they’ll sell eventually”
Stats: 179 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1549866432921358336
Date: 2022-07-20 21:18:47 GMT
Body: Reminder, “sold” and “will sell” are not the same just like “bought” and “will buy” are not the same; typical discourse around this kind of thing tends to be almost totally flipped (not investment advice etc etc)
Stats: 898 likes, 98 retweets, 59 quote tweets, 114 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1548249903402348544
Date: 2022-07-16 10:15:16 GMT
Replying to: @dg1001 (Tweet ID: 1548248480514076673)
Body: @dg1001 @mattysino they also have a chipotle
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1548248230638497792
Date: 2022-07-16 10:08:37 GMT
Replying to: @mattysino (Tweet ID: 1548238133350699009)
Body: @mattysino I worked in Bala Cynwyd for years and pronouncing it still makes me uneasy
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1547632506270232581
Date: 2022-07-14 17:21:57 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1547628389627936768)
Body: @rsalame7926 @nicklalota I guess the only American @nicklalota "puts first" is himself!!
Stats: 23 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1546749202696310785
Date: 2022-07-12 06:52:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1546749127031107584)
Body: @zackvoell The part after that was decidedly less so!!!
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1546749127031107584
Date: 2022-07-12 06:51:43 GMT
Replying to: @zackvoell (Tweet ID: 1546748381405614080)
Body: @zackvoell The part when I was briefly 8x starting stack was fun
Stats: 23 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1546747311744618496
Date: 2022-07-12 06:44:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1546625519935885312)
Body: I should stick to trading!!!
Stats: 271 likes, 6 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 55 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1546625519935885312
Date: 2022-07-11 22:40:33 GMT
Body: Always wanted to do this! https://t.co/bXI8MgxB9d
Stats: 703 likes, 9 retweets, 15 quote tweets, 117 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1546584304200794112
Date: 2022-07-11 19:56:46 GMT
Body: I love Vegas https://t.co/uRRdkg1W1S
Stats: 117 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 43 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1545246980296740864
Date: 2022-07-08 03:22:44 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaResearch: happy to return the Voyager loan and get our collateral back whenever works for voyager
Body: Have been seeing a lot of chatter about this, here’s our stance https://t.co/MeMs0Tr6Wd
Stats: 511 likes, 26 retweets, 10 quote tweets, 68 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1544404875215118336
Date: 2022-07-05 19:36:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1544402756693155841)
Body: @StorybookBrawl @FTX_Official when charity tournament
Stats: 28 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1544404637473574912
Date: 2022-07-05 19:35:33 GMT
Replying to: @Croaker917 (Tweet ID: 1544404340810686465)
Body: @Croaker917 to be clear this was mostly tongue in cheek / i figured some reasons existed, appreciate this info tho and i probably will check that book out :) super interesting field
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1544403020858871808
Date: 2022-07-05 19:29:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1544402847063691264)
Body: i couldn't actually tell you though because i can never remember which it's called in a given game
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1544402847063691264
Date: 2022-07-05 19:28:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1544402756693155841)
Body: creature / attack / health is definite the best combo but i'm not sure any game uses all 3 of them
Stats: 21 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1544402756693155841
Date: 2022-07-05 19:28:05 GMT
Body: why can't every game that has:
- creatures / minions / characters / etc.
- health / toughness / etc.
- power / attack / etc.
just pick one of those terms to use industry-wide?
@StorybookBrawl has joined the ranks of games which plague me in this specific way
Stats: 57 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 30 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1544063348504875008
Date: 2022-07-04 20:59:24 GMT
Replying to: @elonmusk (Tweet ID: 1544059562864640011)
Body: @elonmusk @elonmusk would you like to co-author a crossword with me
Stats: 204 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 81 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1543897790992060424
Date: 2022-07-04 10:01:32 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1543798977266589696)
Body: @rsalame7926 don't subtweet me
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1543326742605025280
Date: 2022-07-02 20:12:23 GMT
Replying to: @gakonst (Tweet ID: 1543317778618146817)
Body: @gakonst who told you that
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1543311241912786944
Date: 2022-07-02 19:10:48 GMT
Replying to: @aranha_paul (Tweet ID: 1543307902760341504)
Body: @aranha_paul @RyanSAdams https://t.co/EnM138gHEK
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1543310940145213441
Date: 2022-07-02 19:09:36 GMT
Replying to: @BigCryptoAlert (Tweet ID: 1543287144281776129)
Body: @BigCryptoAlert @StorybookBrawl I did re-download it the other day, it’s a good game
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1541924742265012228
Date: 2022-06-28 23:21:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1541919094487883776)
Body: @0xSantasLilHlpr the prophecy https://t.co/a7ex3Qm2aM
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1541919364286500866
Date: 2022-06-28 22:59:58 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1541918067319611393)
Body: @cmsholdings sir
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1541919094487883776
Date: 2022-06-28 22:58:54 GMT
Replying to: @SantasLttlHlpr (Tweet ID: 1541915507087052800)
Body: @0xSantasLilHlpr keeping an eye out for this
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1541916757400514560
Date: 2022-06-28 22:49:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1541914316659736577)
Body: The mascot has begun doing choreography to “Apple Bottom Jeans” while wearing jeans, I’m pretty invested https://t.co/D3ymt3akWh
Stats: 56 likes, 1 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 26 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1541914316659736577
Date: 2022-06-28 22:39:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1541910624623632388)
Body: this, like all my other posts, is not:
- an allegory
- a code
- investment advice
Stats: 112 likes, 1 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 32 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1541910624623632388
Date: 2022-06-28 22:25:14 GMT
Body: There’s nothing like the chaos of minor league baseball, thousands of people pay to come here and every half inning everyone watches four children race “bouncy horses” to win tickets to a water park. https://t.co/W4yGiJdjAU
Stats: 137 likes, 2 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 47 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1541847588210724866
Date: 2022-06-28 18:14:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1541846696249917440)
Body: @cmsholdings @cryptokonata sorry I didn’t accept the speaker request I wasn’t somewhere I could talk
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1541846696249917440
Date: 2022-06-28 18:11:13 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1541846007490777089)
Body: @cmsholdings @cryptokonata it added some much needed interest to my day
Stats: 72 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1541503135801393155
Date: 2022-06-27 19:26:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1541502980805066755)
Body: it’s a joke!!!!! and it’s assuredly not financial advice
Stats: 144 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 19 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1541502980805066755
Date: 2022-06-27 19:25:25 GMT
Quoted tweet: @zerohedge: Russia 'Defaults On Foreign Debt' For First Time Since Bolshevik Revolution Amid Western Sanctions https://t.co/ry0vz7ZEfW
Body: have you ever seen su zhu and putin in the same room https://t.co/TzftOn4WdV
Stats: 631 likes, 43 retweets, 16 quote tweets, 84 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1540832747945689090
Date: 2022-06-25 23:02:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1540832139301855232)
Body: I just saw one for a car dealership which was basically "hey I know gas prices are high, try saving money by buying a new car"
Stats: 104 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 17 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1540832139301855232
Date: 2022-06-25 22:59:43 GMT
Body: I love small-town commercials where you can tell the "actors" are the business owner's teenage children and they did at most two takes.
Stats: 240 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 27 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1539048510401744896
Date: 2022-06-21 00:52:13 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1539048179810848768)
Body: @rsalame7926 was a magic time
Stats: 38 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1538193052245938177
Date: 2022-06-18 16:12:56 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1537954877845803008)
Body: @OrangePaulp https://t.co/3sSUMhuNzT
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1537583266873544704
Date: 2022-06-16 23:49:52 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1537583118403903488)
Body: @cmsholdings no one makes you do this dan
Stats: 146 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 25 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1537462949232746500
Date: 2022-06-16 15:51:46 GMT
Quoted tweet: @michellebond111: My name is Michelle Bond, and I'm running for Congress in NY's 1st District!
I'm hitting the campaign trail to make sure Suffolk County is represented by a conservative businesswoman, not a career politician. #NY01
https://t.co/jCmHRCyN6q
To support: https://t.co/AH4UmetrtX https://t.co/MtpfHP8zI2
Body: IMO the most exciting of the recent pro-crypto candidates, worth watching! https://t.co/WQgFiO7yyh
Stats: 90 likes, 3 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 52 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1536798613015351299
Date: 2022-06-14 19:51:56 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1536795349288886273)
Body: @jackshaftoes an xnft
Stats: 28 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1536764822104285184
Date: 2022-06-14 17:37:39 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1536760720808939520)
Body: @cmsholdings so many shake-ups today
Stats: 56 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1535110193465462802
Date: 2022-06-10 04:02:45 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1535104092644720640)
Body: @rsalame7926 if there are clones of you i'm out
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1533575502807564288
Date: 2022-06-05 22:24:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1533573659016691716)
Body: I’m settling an argument
Stats: 45 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 29 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1533573659016691716
Date: 2022-06-05 22:17:07 GMT
Body: What fraction of the time when you’re taking a shower are your eyes closed?
Stats: 56 likes, 2 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 66 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1533249505755287554
Date: 2022-06-05 00:49:03 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1533246833639710724)
Body: @rsalame7926 @HP @Microsoft @Google feel like you’d be a macbook guy
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1533154707044188166
Date: 2022-06-04 18:32:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1532782317307060225)
Body: See also: "bear market"
Stats: 110 likes, 4 retweets, 7 quote tweets, 23 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1532849723035508738
Date: 2022-06-03 22:20:27 GMT
Replying to: @aranha_paul (Tweet ID: 1532843360771313665)
Body: @aranha_paul @rsalame7926 not everyone is allowed to
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1532848657187340289
Date: 2022-06-03 22:16:13 GMT
Body: he said she said https://t.co/loOU114M60
Stats: 107 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 24 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1532782317307060225
Date: 2022-06-03 17:52:36 GMT
Body: I like how no one really knows what the word "recession" means.
Stats: 730 likes, 39 retweets, 17 quote tweets, 189 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1532502779436187648
Date: 2022-06-02 23:21:49 GMT
Replying to: @Kasperbit (Tweet ID: 1532446803047632896)
Body: @Kasperbit Thank you for the suggestions here! Will take a look and report back, though I actually have been thinking lately about picking one up with a leather strap if you have any ideas there.
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1532502498757443616
Date: 2022-06-02 23:20:42 GMT
Replying to: @Kasperbit (Tweet ID: 1532446763868643329)
Body: @Kasperbit I wear a lot of green for sure
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1532502363562463232
Date: 2022-06-02 23:20:10 GMT
Replying to: @Kasperbit (Tweet ID: 1532446755270365184)
Body: @Kasperbit well reasoned!
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1531999370777853963
Date: 2022-06-01 14:01:27 GMT
Replying to: @aranha_paul (Tweet ID: 1531998768907919371)
Body: @aranha_paul @rsalame7926 let's hope so
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1531999183317647360
Date: 2022-06-01 14:00:43 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1531998605501943819)
Body: @rsalame7926 https://t.co/EZZuZTKREC
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1531998136763584512
Date: 2022-06-01 13:56:33 GMT
Replying to: @Kasperbit (Tweet ID: 1531997455209975808)
Body: @Kasperbit @rsalame7926 thank you
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1531997805321105410
Date: 2022-06-01 13:55:14 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1531996983954755584)
Body: @rsalame7926 ryan correct me if I'm wrong but I believe my most expensive pen was stolen from me by you
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1531996141956567040
Date: 2022-06-01 13:48:38 GMT
Replying to: @Kasperbit (Tweet ID: 1531976164167786499)
Body: @Kasperbit @packssmacks Let's hear it!
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1529319710227062785
Date: 2022-05-25 04:33:26 GMT
Replying to: @cobie (Tweet ID: 1529319247092109314)
Body: @cobie @conzimp @hentaiavenger66 @0xsillyrice lol
Stats: 45 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1529318719167528961
Date: 2022-05-25 04:29:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1529302503736631299)
Body: @cobie @conzimp @hentaiavenger66 @0xsillyrice Sorry, I am exhausted / already in a bad mood, I don't think Cobie is homophobic etc., mostly didn't like this tweet but regret saying anything
Stats: 237 likes, 0 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 46 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1529302503736631299
Date: 2022-05-25 03:25:04 GMT
Replying to: @cobie (Tweet ID: 1529250266540908550)
Body: @cobie @conzimp @hentaiavenger66 @0xsillyrice hahaha being gay is hilarious
Stats: 309 likes, 21 retweets, 53 quote tweets, 88 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1527769053342867456
Date: 2022-05-20 21:51:41 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1527768166889410560)
Body: @cmsholdings maybe he’s a trillionaire
Stats: 126 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1527767998060060672
Date: 2022-05-20 21:47:29 GMT
Replying to: @nlw (Tweet ID: 1527701932667817984)
Body: @nlw maybe massachusetts is just all dryers all the time
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1527516937047003142
Date: 2022-05-20 05:09:52 GMT
Replying to: @TradePod (Tweet ID: 1527512315637243921)
Body: @TradePod wow i went to this class like 2-3 times, nice find
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1527359438272679944
Date: 2022-05-19 18:44:01 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoCred (Tweet ID: 1527358846951469056)
Body: @CryptoCred @ledgerstatus @gainzxbt @GoingParabolic @IamNomad feeling attacked
Stats: 115 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1526727303245406208
Date: 2022-05-18 00:52:08 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1526716836045377536)
Body: @rsalame7926 fat
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1526688231546269697
Date: 2022-05-17 22:16:53 GMT
Replying to: @vkrussell (Tweet ID: 1525888060281479168)
Body: @vkrussell nice boat!
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1525642640594612224
Date: 2022-05-15 01:02:05 GMT
Quoted tweet: @WatcherGuru: JUST IN: 🇺🇸 US SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce says stablecoins are likely to be regulated in light of Terra's $UST crash.
Body: This is:
- barely news insofar as it was clearly going to happen eventually; especially so in the wake of UST
- probably net good? (though again not like a “good update” because I think it barely represents an update) https://t.co/SG97ELuJn7
Stats: 149 likes, 6 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 70 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1525561380815835137
Date: 2022-05-14 19:39:11 GMT
Replying to: @dukeofdolma (Tweet ID: 1525556558779797505)
Body: @dukeofdolma @cmsholdings https://t.co/MjhAM5XOSX
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1524880463285800961
Date: 2022-05-12 22:33:28 GMT
Replying to: @aranha_paul (Tweet ID: 1524874768800964621)
Body: @aranha_paul @dzrgreg @gaborgurbacs @paoloardoino @rsalame7926 https://t.co/tiJEzMT9x7
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1524802812344819722
Date: 2022-05-12 17:24:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1524802810029563914)
Body: Kidding, of course, but it has been nice to once again confirm the existence and efficacy of USDT's redemption mechanism! Alameda did a ton of 'em today.
Stats: 1219 likes, 55 retweets, 61 quote tweets, 78 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1524802810029563914
Date: 2022-05-12 17:24:54 GMT
Body: I have an idea for a stablecoin algorithm:
- When you wanna create it, you send in dollars
- When you wanna redeem it, you are sent dollars https://t.co/XPr4htW86g
Stats: 2498 likes, 144 retweets, 56 quote tweets, 200 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1524674243996180480
Date: 2022-05-12 08:54:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1524673699281920000)
Body: @tackettzane (not investment advice!!!!!!)
Stats: 44 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1524673699281920000
Date: 2022-05-12 08:51:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1524673456574500866)
Body: @tackettzane (the .93 sales were insane FWIW and not something i ever expected to see again in this life :P)
Stats: 136 likes, 13 retweets, 12 quote tweets, 27 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1524673456574500866
Date: 2022-05-12 08:50:53 GMT
Replying to: @tackettzane (Tweet ID: 1524672601053749248)
Body: @tackettzane why would someone make this bet at odds substantially worse for them than every market in the world implies tho
Stats: 94 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1524205442909364225
Date: 2022-05-11 01:51:10 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1524193481853485056)
Body: @rsalame7926 @PerdueChicken ryan
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1523381953239523328
Date: 2022-05-08 19:18:55 GMT
Body: Starting to see a little chatter about this, so just to quell it before it gets worse, Alameda hasn't been selling UST and doesn't have any particular plans to.
Not investment advice, etc. etc.
Stats: 1059 likes, 64 retweets, 53 quote tweets, 143 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1521876074375925767
Date: 2022-05-04 15:35:05 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1521866880671174656)
Body: @OrangePaulp basically yeah
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1518770822751608834
Date: 2022-04-26 01:55:56 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1518768091878023172)
Body: @cmsholdings @CL207 @KyleLDavies yes
Stats: 29 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1518685997197934592
Date: 2022-04-25 20:18:52 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1518665385284968450)
Body: @cmsholdings did julien get COVID too??
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1518090793562615808
Date: 2022-04-24 04:53:44 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1518087571498147840)
Body: @rsalame7926 awww, hate you too
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1518013560688889862
Date: 2022-04-23 23:46:50 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1518012948882628609)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/UM6riObZUQ
Stats: 34 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1517975970384330752
Date: 2022-04-23 21:17:28 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1517972053219057665)
Body: @rsalame7926 @CryptoBahamas https://t.co/4sWZw06Ipk
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1517975433521864704
Date: 2022-04-23 21:15:20 GMT
Replying to: @aranha_paul (Tweet ID: 1517972275064033280)
Body: @aranha_paul @michellebond111 @CryptoBahamas @FTX_Official @SALTConference is this what they mean by “jet stream”
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1517971093532913666
Date: 2022-04-23 20:58:05 GMT
Replying to: @aranha_paul (Tweet ID: 1517941809267326976)
Body: @aranha_paul @michellebond111 @CryptoBahamas @FTX_Official @SALTConference on the ground paul, you wouldn’t be interested
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1517652990949306368
Date: 2022-04-22 23:54:04 GMT
Replying to: @aranha_paul (Tweet ID: 1517645684798681089)
Body: @aranha_paul @rsalame7926 you wouldn’t have heard of this paul it didn’t fly
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1517598264857702401
Date: 2022-04-22 20:16:36 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1517571676933918721)
Body: @rsalame7926 i think recent findings suggest that velociraptors actually didn't hunt in packs
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1517583442871046144
Date: 2022-04-22 19:17:42 GMT
Replying to: @shehzadhassam (Tweet ID: 1517580306060316673)
Body: @shehzadhassam @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings please don't tell him this
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1513643311239675908
Date: 2022-04-11 22:21:02 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1513640010758635523)
Body: @rsalame7926 are we still using will smith gifs
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1513143106824290305
Date: 2022-04-10 13:13:24 GMT
Replying to: @aranha_paul (Tweet ID: 1513142563280150529)
Body: @aranha_paul @elonmusk @rsalame7926 let the record show i got mine the old fashioned way
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1511841872485957639
Date: 2022-04-06 23:02:45 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1511839442775990275)
Body: @OrangePaulp “what if you paid me a salary to do nothing 🥹”
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1511838982212136962
Date: 2022-04-06 22:51:16 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1511790199046615049)
Body: @OrangePaulp what if!!
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1511450373701132296
Date: 2022-04-05 21:07:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1511450302993645569)
Body: @cmsintern @FTX_Access atrocious read TBH
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1511450302993645569
Date: 2022-04-05 21:06:48 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1511424934836326412)
Body: @cmsintern @FTX_Access if I were a messiah I’d absolutely not deny it
Stats: 32 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1510612424839286790
Date: 2022-04-03 13:37:22 GMT
Replying to: @lawmaster (Tweet ID: 1510598309085335557)
Body: @lawmaster @sasha35625 @AlamedaResearch People should really look at funding rates for WAVES right now :P
Stats: 254 likes, 4 retweets, 16 quote tweets, 25 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1510444422256902150
Date: 2022-04-03 02:29:47 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1510408077626982400)
Body: @rsalame7926 @FTX_Official well WHICH IS IT
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1510032243988836352
Date: 2022-04-01 23:11:56 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1509999404199325696)
Body: @FTX_Official @SBF_FTX but then he’d only have 15 left
Stats: 56 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1510030576593645576
Date: 2022-04-01 23:05:19 GMT
Replying to: @BrettHarrison88 (Tweet ID: 1509924792962588687)
Body: @Brett_FTXUS my JS interview was in the NJ building, it was rough lol
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1510030258162085897
Date: 2022-04-01 23:04:03 GMT
Replying to: @BrettHarrison88 (Tweet ID: 1509924817968971779)
Body: @Brett_FTXUS what a twist
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1509213749730816001
Date: 2022-03-30 16:59:32 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1509166457199939589)
Body: @FTX_Official great point
Stats: 33 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1508523755710132225
Date: 2022-03-28 19:17:45 GMT
Replying to: @Forculus (Tweet ID: 1508252120734003202)
Body: @Forculus @cmsholdings milk, yogurt, butter, cream, ...
can't think of any others!
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1508406395086987267
Date: 2022-03-28 11:31:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1508404947217526793)
Body: @cmsholdings I’m way too busy getting irresponsibly sunburned for this
Stats: 29 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1508404947217526793
Date: 2022-03-28 11:25:38 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1508251123601354755)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/G4q101A22G
Stats: 65 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507717778240851974
Date: 2022-03-26 13:55:05 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1507520787527487495)
Body: @SBF_FTX why was the first example Bob and the second example Alice
Stats: 71 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507092176404164614
Date: 2022-03-24 20:29:09 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1507088079802474497)
Body: @FTX_Official @rsalame7926 dont you have teslas to ship
Stats: 51 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507081839986585603
Date: 2022-03-24 19:48:05 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1507081108248477696)
Body: @FTX_Official does bitcoin solve this
Stats: 127 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 17 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507076958257094659
Date: 2022-03-24 19:28:41 GMT
Replying to: @KPHouston24 (Tweet ID: 1507076668128641038)
Body: @KPHouston24 @theemilyaccount https://t.co/GHLzm4DjTf
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507076180347863046
Date: 2022-03-24 19:25:36 GMT
Replying to: @theemilyaccount (Tweet ID: 1507076095555866626)
Body: @theemilyaccount happens to the best of us!
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507075820996730881
Date: 2022-03-24 19:24:10 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1507075663001526277)
Body: @rsalame7926 us https://t.co/AKYBhSZyFH
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507075227649519616
Date: 2022-03-24 19:21:49 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1507074976914022406)
Body: @rsalame7926 ty sir
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507074885205561353
Date: 2022-03-24 19:20:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1507074801021693960)
Body: (do you get it)
Stats: 42 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 34 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507074801021693960
Date: 2022-03-24 19:20:07 GMT
Quoted tweet: @rsalame7926: Please observe how @AlamedaTrabucco does not have one.
Body: You should double check this Ryan! https://t.co/4JZ4GpySO1
Stats: 105 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 73 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507058167758340106
Date: 2022-03-24 18:14:01 GMT
Replying to: @aranha_paul (Tweet ID: 1507058003228327937)
Body: @aranha_paul @rsalame7926 talk to me when you hit 100 followers
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507052041927114757
Date: 2022-03-24 17:49:41 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1507051796069507081)
Body: @rsalame7926 https://t.co/tQjQcl9tH0
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507051626967842821
Date: 2022-03-24 17:48:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1507051525419454470)
Body: @rsalame7926 the montblanc pen of twitter
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507051525419454470
Date: 2022-03-24 17:47:37 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1507051352828092423)
Body: @rsalame7926 checkmarks are for boomers
Stats: 61 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507030032836960262
Date: 2022-03-24 16:22:13 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoKaleo (Tweet ID: 1507002938933198848)
Body: @CryptoKaleo gm
Stats: 32 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1507028992142061586
Date: 2022-03-24 16:18:05 GMT
Replying to: @lightcrypto (Tweet ID: 1507023633348427777)
Body: @lightcrypto @cmsholdings I struggle to imagine Dan doing anything else
Stats: 39 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1506723127476248593
Date: 2022-03-23 20:02:41 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1506653423940390913)
Body: @cmsintern this should be on @VH1
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1506311075419103232
Date: 2022-03-22 16:45:20 GMT
Replying to: @lsv (Tweet ID: 1506310272830500871)
Body: @lsv @amytongwu @StorybookBrawl @SBF_FTX To be fair I do re-download it a few times per week, but yeah I agree
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1506309102263316488
Date: 2022-03-22 16:37:30 GMT
Replying to: @amytongwu (Tweet ID: 1506308329366175748)
Body: @amytongwu @StorybookBrawl @SBF_FTX @lsv I keep uninstalling it because it’s too addictive
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1506307166889725957
Date: 2022-03-22 16:29:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1506306851142615044)
Body: @StargateFinance (not investment advice)
Stats: 93 likes, 5 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 45 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1506306857358532611
Date: 2022-03-22 16:28:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1506306856062529547)
Body: We're always excited to put our money where our mouths are, and we look forward to seeing what the @StargateFinance team does moving forward.
Stats: 229 likes, 9 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 30 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1506306856062529547
Date: 2022-03-22 16:28:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1506306854825119748)
Body: Further, we're going to cede our aSTG voting rights so that voting power is more equally distributed amongst early-stage community members. We're not trying to change the direction of the project, and we want our voting power to reflect that.
Stats: 256 likes, 10 retweets, 11 quote tweets, 18 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1506306853571026957
Date: 2022-03-22 16:28:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1506306852396617732)
Body: The cross-chain asset management opens up a wide array of possible DeFi use cases, makes capital allocation for firms like Alameda more seamless, and aids in making the crypto markets more efficient -- among many other benefits @StargateFinance is creating.
Stats: 177 likes, 10 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1506306852396617732
Date: 2022-03-22 16:28:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1506306851142615044)
Body: First off: we did indeed buy all the tokens. We love the team and what they're doing, and we believe this space and the technology they're building is really important.
Stats: 610 likes, 97 retweets, 172 quote tweets, 39 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1506306851142615044
Date: 2022-03-22 16:28:33 GMT
Body: There's been some chatter about the recent @StargateFinance auction, and I wanted to clarify a few things about Alameda's involvement.
Stats: 832 likes, 154 retweets, 102 quote tweets, 78 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1506299400984965133
Date: 2022-03-22 15:58:57 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1506298804533927945)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/4gJnTAhgSC
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1506083082130104324
Date: 2022-03-22 01:39:23 GMT
Replying to: @aranha_paul (Tweet ID: 1506070497519620097)
Body: @aranha_paul @bodhizaf @rsalame7926 @CryptoBahamas I didn't know you were captaining ships now!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1505955784328454145
Date: 2022-03-21 17:13:32 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1505944448395481088)
Body: @rsalame7926 @CryptoBahamas I think I got a free speaker ticket but can I pay for it anyway to demonstrate that I didn't need it
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1504551908878565384
Date: 2022-03-17 20:15:02 GMT
Replying to: @Melt_Dem (Tweet ID: 1504548587853783050)
Body: @Melt_Dem @AarikaRhodes @BradSherman Same conclusion but I’m interested in hearing a lot more about Mongoose Coin.
Stats: 50 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1503810902633689090
Date: 2022-03-15 19:10:33 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SenateCloakroom: Passed by Unanimous Consent, S.623: Sunshine Protection Act, as amended (to make Daylight Saving Time permanent) @SenRubioPress / @SenWhitehouse / others
Body: how is it possible this happened unanimously in 2022 and could never get passed in any of the past 50 years https://t.co/dpxK7XTJk8
Stats: 127 likes, 6 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 30 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1503740649052512256
Date: 2022-03-15 14:31:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1503740606857850882)
Body: @TeddyRoosevalt @FTX_Access @illigmid I barely want people to be allowed to tag me.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1503740606857850882
Date: 2022-03-15 14:31:13 GMT
Replying to: @TeddyRoosevalt (Tweet ID: 1503737337284542467)
Body: @TeddyRoosevalt @FTX_Access @illigmid I don't want notifications for any versions of my name :P
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1503737070686154758
Date: 2022-03-15 14:17:10 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Access (Tweet ID: 1503736545479696395)
Body: @FTX_Access @illigmid https://t.co/s2l2UVUQO7
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1502040334125219844
Date: 2022-03-10 21:54:56 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1502036325536567298)
Body: @rsalame7926 @SBF_FTX cute
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647711048810498
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647703612211201)
Body: Crypto markets have *always* been inefficient in reacting to things like this, and I bet that's not going away in the near future -- be on the lookout for spots where you think you've read the narrative better than the rest of the world! https://t.co/9vQLGIWQ1q
Stats: 96 likes, 9 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 33 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647703612211201
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647696230109187)
Body: If you understand all this in real time, it creates a great opportunity! The market, I think, was definitely down too much from the EO announcement -- again, it just really didn't make sense, and it was super likely to rebound when the EO happened and was "fine." https://t.co/cgkl7CjVLB
Stats: 33 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647696230109187
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647694191804419)
Body: The most baffling thing here was the -5% dip, to be fair -- there shouldn't even have been any update since it was obvious the EO was coming -- but when by far the most likely event (the EO being "fine") occurs and there's a +10% rally? That seems very inefficient to me.
Stats: 20 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647694191804419
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647693214535681)
Body: And what about the 10% rally? Well, for *that* to make sense, the market REALLY needed to have been expecting a much worse EO -- again, based on, IMO, basically nothing -- to the point where the NET impact was +5% (-5% then +10%). That's from pre-announcement!
Stats: 26 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647693214535681
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647692132405255)
Body: The timing definitely makes it a little possible that the EO was going to be "bad" -- but, enough to justify a 5% drop? It's hard for me to believe that, especially since that's 5% just on the *possibility* of bad news.
So, the announcement being such a big update seems wrong.
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647692132405255
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647690870009859)
Body: It's been pretty well-known that an EO was coming, and chatter in the days leading up to this announcement made this really clear -- with lots of politicians calling for it (especially the Ds Biden is likely to be similar to), how could it not have happened?
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647690870009859
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647688928043011)
Body: For there to be a drop on the announcement of the EO, the market needed to think:
- before the announcement, the EO was unlikely
- the EO happening around Russia/Ukraine meant it would probably be *bad*
... but, why would we think either of those things?
Stats: 19 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647688928043011
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647684863729673)
Body: And here's last night when info about the EO leaked -- crypto rallied around 10% during a period when equities were barely moving (though it's worth noting equities rallied afterward).
So, what was happening here? https://t.co/nwFbNcReos
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647684863729673
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647681055244292)
Body: First, here's the announcement that Biden's EO was coming imminently -- crypto fell around 5% on the news during a period when equities barely moved. https://t.co/1H0RdgmcnD
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647681055244292
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647673102938116)
Body: This is a bit of a tangent, though -- I bring it all up to address a few points recently where crypto moved independently of equities. https://t.co/xugDtcCGWf
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647673102938116
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647671932727303)
Body: Medium-term or something I do expect that there are classes of macro moves which crypto *shouldn't* follow (monetary policy, for instance) -- but, for now, the market is just treating it like a risk asset, and it has been for some time.
Stats: 36 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647671932727303
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647668933705734)
Body: There have been some isolated spots over the past few weeks when BTC "decoupled" for a few hours, sometimes not moving when equities did, sometimes the opposite. I don't have a compelling explanation for all of those, to be honest!
Stats: 38 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647668933705734
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647663867076610)
Body: Mostly, BTC is following SPY -- the market decided in 2020 that BTC was a risk asset, and ever since, whenever there's been a macro-driven move in equities, crypto has basically followed suit.
... except when it hasn't. https://t.co/CoEyYBTNvM
Stats: 42 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647663867076610
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647662759563265)
Body: So any price impact from Biden's executive order does need to be considered in context:
- it's important to separate out price impact from e.g. crypto's SPY beta
- it's important to consider how Russia/Ukraine might have influenced the EO (and opinion of it)
Stats: 32 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647662759563265
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1501647660268335116)
Body: Obviously, the big story lately has been Russia/Ukraine -- I don't have anything new to say about the conflict itself, but global markets, including crypto, have mostly revolved around this for the past few weeks.
Stats: 32 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501647660268335116
Date: 2022-03-09 19:54:36 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Crypto markets have evolved quite a bit, but I think it'll still be some time before they start reacting efficiently to news. https://t.co/oXsVkvKD04
Body: Let's dig a bit deeper into this -- why did the market react the way it did, and what makes it "inefficient" exactly?
A thread about news. https://t.co/U5FlEWfzxK
Stats: 242 likes, 38 retweets, 20 quote tweets, 28 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1501582028323577860
Date: 2022-03-09 15:33:48 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: ok so one thing that confuses me--
this was *always* going to be what the EO said; every sign pointed to it
why did markets go down when it was formally announced that it would come out this week (it was already going to come out?), and why did they go up when it did come out?
Body: Crypto markets have evolved quite a bit, but I think it'll still be some time before they start reacting efficiently to news. https://t.co/oXsVkvKD04
Stats: 104 likes, 7 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1500858818133204992
Date: 2022-03-07 15:40:01 GMT
Quoted tweet: @elonmusk: You are my favorite hello,
And my hardest goodbye.
Body: It's been so long since he tweeted about DOGE! https://t.co/2L7yuDI0V2
Stats: 275 likes, 3 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 32 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1498763817140035585
Date: 2022-03-01 20:55:14 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1498762996381802498)
Body: @rsalame7926 https://t.co/qZCKfs1y0y
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1498762730454585354
Date: 2022-03-01 20:50:55 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1498761352101388297)
Body: @rsalame7926 why did i think it was acceptable not to do anything to my hair
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1498760808150482945
Date: 2022-03-01 20:43:16 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1498751707987443712)
Body: @rsalame7926 ryan can you urgently find your second eyebrow, it seems to have gone missing
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1498683854420430852
Date: 2022-03-01 15:37:29 GMT
Replying to: @laurenremington (Tweet ID: 1498681112381566983)
Body: @laurenremington @SBF_FTX @Nishad__Singh @FTX_Official @carolinecapital
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1498671754822234117
Date: 2022-03-01 14:49:24 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1498666863785648134)
Body: @cmsholdings do you think he'll play scrabble against me for it
Stats: 44 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1498430637434408966
Date: 2022-02-28 22:51:18 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1498427169638428676)
Body: @cmsholdings WHICH NATION'S DOLLARS DAN
Stats: 85 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1496547429218496518
Date: 2022-02-23 18:08:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1496547313195618310)
Body: Also they needed to both text and call the number, and when they called they hung up on me.
Stats: 94 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1496547313195618310
Date: 2022-02-23 18:07:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1496536928388321282)
Body: Part of their identify verification process was me giving them a phone number and then them sending a code to the number I just told them? What?
Stats: 161 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1496536928388321282
Date: 2022-02-23 17:26:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1496515071115243529)
Body: Update: they called me back after 80 minutes, immediately transferred me to a 20 minute-long hold, and when someone answered they immediately hung up.
Stats: 325 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 34 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1496515071115243529
Date: 2022-02-23 15:59:31 GMT
Body: I initiated a wire and @Chase canceled it and locked my account due to suspicious activity until I call them, and the wait time is 90 minutes! I'm so happy my funds are protected.
Stats: 1397 likes, 50 retweets, 13 quote tweets, 85 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1496262877514244096
Date: 2022-02-22 23:17:23 GMT
Replying to: @unusual_whales (Tweet ID: 1496262103086284801)
Body: @unusual_whales @SBF_FTX @laurashin @bitfinex @chainalysis I wouldn't get used to this
Stats: 44 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1496131089366138882
Date: 2022-02-22 14:33:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1496130971573362689)
Body: @cmsholdings @mkomaransky Please write a palindrome about the Bitfinex whale
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1496130971573362689
Date: 2022-02-22 14:33:15 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1495937330351427591)
Body: @cmsholdings @mkomaransky
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1495806077648183305
Date: 2022-02-21 17:02:14 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1495805806549348371)
Body: @OrangePaulp !! I thought that was a print campaign, gonna need to see it
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1495465549895188489
Date: 2022-02-20 18:29:06 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1495462252203458561)
Body: @cmsholdings @Pentosh1 @mattomattik @needacoin The only thing I’ve ever traded with you is furtive glances
Stats: 64 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1494203451311542273
Date: 2022-02-17 06:53:58 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1494086487150718976)
Body: @rsalame7926 stop subtweeting me
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1492005318531952671
Date: 2022-02-11 05:19:22 GMT
Replying to: @backbooked (Tweet ID: 1491939462552559624)
Body: @backbooked are they tired of being paid
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1491438411496198144
Date: 2022-02-09 15:46:41 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1491438194021527553)
Body: @cmsintern which one is this
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1491430472769241092
Date: 2022-02-09 15:15:08 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1491428843760263171)
Body: @SBF_FTX to be honest this is offensive
Stats: 582 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1491240791045709835
Date: 2022-02-09 02:41:25 GMT
Replying to: @ledgerstatus (Tweet ID: 1491240087161819136)
Body: @ledgerstatus if this is the next red eyes I'm out
Stats: 103 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1491174947309645824
Date: 2022-02-08 22:19:46 GMT
Replying to: @moreproteinbars (Tweet ID: 1491172191412813825)
Body: @moreproteinbars @bennpeifert Great place for new grads! Their trading internship is awesome.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1490885585950900225
Date: 2022-02-08 03:09:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1490884702731108355)
Body: Like folks, I’m gay and think he’s dumb but also, half the world agrees with him and I don’t have time to think about him
Stats: 503 likes, 9 retweets, 8 quote tweets, 28 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1490884702731108355
Date: 2022-02-08 03:06:27 GMT
Body: So the dude who got fired for being a homophobe etc was bad ... but crypto rallies a ton despite equities for the first time in weeks and the homophobe dominates my timeline??? https://t.co/celvwGsnld
Stats: 599 likes, 11 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 40 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1489710123064995848
Date: 2022-02-04 21:19:05 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1489707343122255879)
Body: @cmsholdings absolutely
Stats: 45 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1489312194500214790
Date: 2022-02-03 18:57:51 GMT
Replying to: @mattysino (Tweet ID: 1489248774849691649)
Body: @mattysino @cmsholdings @cmsholdings are you cheating on tungsten??
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1488630032264216578
Date: 2022-02-01 21:47:11 GMT
Replying to: @roshunpatel (Tweet ID: 1488599609542946820)
Body: @roshunpatel I hear the NYT word game team is killer
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1488323934936190976
Date: 2022-02-01 01:30:52 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1488310366279020549)
Body: @rsalame7926 @FTX_Official where are the cubes on this map
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1488279532867964941
Date: 2022-01-31 22:34:26 GMT
Replying to: @ethperp (Tweet ID: 1488278174714982400)
Body: @ethperp @cmsintern @AnnieDuke oh I mean this is a good book
Stats: 2 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1488277915351457792
Date: 2022-01-31 22:28:00 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1488277308607975425)
Body: @cmsintern @AnnieDuke predictable
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1488277163514032131
Date: 2022-01-31 22:25:01 GMT
Replying to: @0x4C756B65 (Tweet ID: 1488276666858319875)
Body: @0x4C756B65 @cmsintern @AnnieDuke It's pretty poker-forward IIRC
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1488275692269703169
Date: 2022-01-31 22:19:10 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1488275516444446721)
Body: @cmsintern @AnnieDuke If your next post is notes on the book "Predictably Irrational" I swear
Stats: 19 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1488275516444446721
Date: 2022-01-31 22:18:28 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1488272571930128385)
Body: @cmsintern @AnnieDuke Is CMS parroting SIG's assigned internship reading???
Stats: 22 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1487183763385700352
Date: 2022-01-28 22:00:14 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1487091793170780167)
Body: @cmsholdings insane take
Stats: 38 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1486546258575589377
Date: 2022-01-27 03:47:01 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1486534894998069248)
Body: @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings Only so much you can do without leaving the house.
Stats: 22 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1486512495309168643
Date: 2022-01-27 01:32:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1486504509031403521)
Body: @CryptoCred I figured out to join a spaces!
Stats: 31 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1486504509031403521
Date: 2022-01-27 01:01:07 GMT
Quoted tweet: @01_exchange: Spaces crashed, new link https://t.co/rszxiKL19F
Body: Going live momentarily! https://t.co/stnsVVWmbx
Stats: 54 likes, 7 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 24 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1486067217930149891
Date: 2022-01-25 20:03:29 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1485960981671034883)
Body: @cmsintern @jon_ftx @backbooked @cmsholdings reveal the gif
Stats: 35 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1485421110413840384
Date: 2022-01-24 01:16:05 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1485418572889395202)
Body: @cmsholdings I can’t say that I felt human from March 2020 - Feb 2021 or so
Stats: 45 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1485418288653897728
Date: 2022-01-24 01:04:52 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1485417258260353028)
Body: @cmsholdings That months-long period feels like a fever dream.
Stats: 44 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1484446091814653955
Date: 2022-01-21 08:41:42 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1484414262520995840)
Body: @OrangePaulp r u me
Stats: 10 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1484337029429153796
Date: 2022-01-21 01:28:20 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1484334746066767879)
Body: @cmsholdings earlier dan sold @cmsintern to me
Stats: 83 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1483217382696914950
Date: 2022-01-17 23:19:15 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1483209453335982084)
Body: @cmsholdings interns's
Stats: 62 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1483172697005715457
Date: 2022-01-17 20:21:41 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1483156080037449734)
Body: @rsalame7926 https://t.co/1Sfuxea2dV
Stats: 35 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1482885606615044097
Date: 2022-01-17 01:20:53 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1482878339102789632)
Body: @rsalame7926 https://t.co/DLcFqTlDVl
Stats: 47 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1482104074526879744
Date: 2022-01-14 21:35:22 GMT
Replying to: @twobitidiot (Tweet ID: 1481669429243138052)
Body: @twobitidiot @cmsholdings it was volunteered to someone else who betrayed me
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1481727352270835713
Date: 2022-01-13 20:38:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1481727177909436416)
Body: Also @cmsholdings please stop cyberbullying me.
Stats: 99 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 25 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1481727177909436416
Date: 2022-01-13 20:37:43 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsholdings: https://t.co/NJbwKVgQXG
Body: Fun fact: a fourth line, "Cheetah is in your pants," was censored. https://t.co/AZbh33BlyE
Stats: 234 likes, 5 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 49 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1480000703590383616
Date: 2022-01-09 02:17:19 GMT
Replying to: @lsv (Tweet ID: 1479978362810482689)
Body: @lsv @Marshall_LR @NumotTheNummy @abaeckst @FTX_Official ty for t4 killing @SBF_FTX within 30s of me remembering to turn this stream on
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1478854061050847232
Date: 2022-01-05 22:20:58 GMT
Body: folks I’ve been on vacation for weeks, your aggression is mis-targeted (though the market’s dark cloud has also overtaken this vineyard) https://t.co/JNJtdwmDgb
Stats: 1485 likes, 35 retweets, 55 quote tweets, 274 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1477902964782092288
Date: 2022-01-03 07:21:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1477902802483441664)
Body: @cmsholdings In 2022 I’m mean
Stats: 34 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1477902802483441664
Date: 2022-01-03 07:21:00 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1477815661049098243)
Body: @cmsholdings I’m surprised you can spell either
Stats: 40 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1477191973832249346
Date: 2022-01-01 08:16:26 GMT
Quoted tweet: @OrangePaulp: 2022 is all about endangering your own life by holding 46 pound tungsten cubes above your head while wearing Marine Serre https://t.co/JmrvDDExGP
Body: Cubes are the only way to ring in the new year
Happy 2022!! https://t.co/0hLFHbCasL
Stats: 45 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 26 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1476809804798574600
Date: 2021-12-31 06:57:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1476809499105116160)
Body: @BrTarolg Working to increase bankroll when it’s good to is often the most important thing — 100x’ing a great opportunity for yourself is as good as finding 100 great opportunities and is usually less than 100x as hard.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1476809499105116160
Date: 2021-12-31 06:56:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1476809285870915584)
Body: @BrTarolg Infinite bankroll (or “high vs total capital you could deploy on the opportunities” or something) makes it break down as you described, but infinite bankroll also means you wouldn’t run into sizing issues in the first place.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1476809285870915584
Date: 2021-12-31 06:55:46 GMT
Replying to: @BrTarolg (Tweet ID: 1476793896818651140)
Body: @BrTarolg Assuming finite bankroll, it can totally be possible to:
- want to maximize bet size at point A and point B even though the EV of A >>> EV at B
- for whatever reason (such as made a bunch from A), you have more capital at point B
- therefore you bet more on B
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1476634322434093070
Date: 2021-12-30 19:20:31 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1476615785309257735)
Body: @SBF_FTX Sam BankPan-Fried
there's something here
Stats: 637 likes, 12 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 21 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1476627583517134875
Date: 2021-12-30 18:53:44 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1476615785309257735)
Body: @SBF_FTX sam
Stats: 128 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 13 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1476372667213119491
Date: 2021-12-30 02:00:48 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1476371195541045251)
Body: @cmsholdings have beanie babies been NFTed yet
Stats: 52 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1475639401250238466
Date: 2021-12-28 01:27:03 GMT
Replying to: @loggyrhythm (Tweet ID: 1475638969119301639)
Body: @loggyrhythm If you would pay back your student loans, just leave them open and yield farm -> profit
Stats: 14 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1475638758649307144
Date: 2021-12-28 01:24:30 GMT
Body: The least rational opinion I’m allowing myself is that it’s not fair I had to isolate for ten days and now it’s only five.
Stats: 191 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 28 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1474925775140769793
Date: 2021-12-26 02:11:22 GMT
Body: my family is so weird https://t.co/isNBJgbDCr
Stats: 788 likes, 6 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 40 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1474803935160541187
Date: 2021-12-25 18:07:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1474803688585707532)
Body: @rsalame7926 (merry cubemas)
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1474803688585707532
Date: 2021-12-25 18:06:14 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1474774129597419525)
Body: @rsalame7926 mc
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1474489129601839113
Date: 2021-12-24 21:16:17 GMT
Body: 'Twas the night before Christmas and all through web3
Not an exec was selling, not even Dorsey
^ my heart wasn't in it this year so this is as far as I got -- merry Christmas!
Stats: 323 likes, 10 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 24 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1473748553495465987
Date: 2021-12-22 20:13:30 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1473735086126379020)
Body: @cmsholdings chicago’s robots are so weak
Stats: 34 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1473412917605380097
Date: 2021-12-21 21:59:48 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1473412253475086345)
Body: @rsalame7926 amazing that they caught this on camera
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1472304094471725058
Date: 2021-12-18 20:33:44 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1472303454081228806)
Body: @rsalame7926 @CeriGBahamas fun fact it's by the guy who does the obituaries for the NYT
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1472303070440837128
Date: 2021-12-18 20:29:40 GMT
Replying to: @CeriGBahamas (Tweet ID: 1472293592748154881)
Body: @CeriGBahamas @rsalame7926 aw someone found a decent photo of ryan
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1471936051883167753
Date: 2021-12-17 20:11:16 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1471932987424088072)
Body: @rsalame7926 @udiWertheimer @FTX_Official let the man say what he wants ryan
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1471176422949535745
Date: 2021-12-15 17:52:47 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1471173891754184706)
Body: @cmsholdings a christmas miracle!!!
Stats: 30 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1469351772690944004
Date: 2021-12-10 17:02:16 GMT
Replying to: @cryptobelix (Tweet ID: 1469350756406935556)
Body: @cryptobelix @tonyresearch It's like drinking Franzia in college vs. drinking expensive wine at a nice restaurant, most were entertained more by the Franzia but 4 years is enough.
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1469350324238536714
Date: 2021-12-10 16:56:31 GMT
Replying to: @tonyresearch (Tweet ID: 1469348736329560070)
Body: @tonyresearch honestly XBT sounds cooler, fight me
Stats: 62 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1469091822215516163
Date: 2021-12-09 23:49:19 GMT
Body: this is an aggressively bad attempt at impersonating me https://t.co/vD86RLnoeE
Stats: 228 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 36 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1469066345211994117
Date: 2021-12-09 22:08:05 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsholdings: CMS holiday party is no longer at the Celtics box and will be held at https://t.co/GPSGjaHqVO
Body: Alameda holiday party to be held as planned, at our office, at our computers, trading. https://t.co/ozbTRrWHeK
Stats: 380 likes, 7 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 32 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468980309056278531
Date: 2021-12-09 16:26:12 GMT
Replying to: @roshunpatel (Tweet ID: 1468969233933504514)
Body: @roshunpatel sounds academic, did you write this in pencil, or pen?
Stats: 51 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468771594755575817
Date: 2021-12-09 02:36:51 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1468770429712089094)
Body: @cmsintern hard to get away with “no” at this point
Stats: 45 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468771413427372035
Date: 2021-12-09 02:36:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468771270523297794)
Body: @SBF_FTX also I have a great anecdote about how our beaver is MIT’s first openly gay beaver
Stats: 59 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468771270523297794
Date: 2021-12-09 02:35:34 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1468770386091388931)
Body: @SBF_FTX my brass rat is such a consistent conversation piece, it’s most of why I wear it
Stats: 79 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468768682780381185
Date: 2021-12-09 02:25:17 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1468725404815011840)
Body: @cmsintern sir no
Stats: 80 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468692851555028992
Date: 2021-12-08 21:23:57 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1468688160460877836)
Body: @SBF_FTX amazing if you walk into congress wearing velcro
Stats: 184 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468669975581925378
Date: 2021-12-08 19:53:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468669974512291841)
Body: The committee has been admirably open to change, and the panelists have done an awesome job at serving as the voice of their industry.
U.S. crypto regulation is fascinating and important, and after listening to this I'm optimistic it's in solid hands.
Stats: 356 likes, 19 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 25 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468669974512291841
Date: 2021-12-08 19:53:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468669973405048837)
Body: (This is ignoring things like Mongoose Coin-gate and whatnot, which to be honest I did not really follow -- but innovation is never without its critics.)
Stats: 123 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468669973405048837
Date: 2021-12-08 19:53:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468669972016775169)
Body: There are many uncertainties -- this is just an initial hearing, this is not the only relevant governing body, etc. And there are many directions regulation in the U.S. (not to mention elsewhere) could go! But, if nothing else, it's so cool to me that it's being taken seriously.
Stats: 113 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468669972016775169
Date: 2021-12-08 19:53:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468669970930450432)
Body: And there have been some really insightful questions about things like security in the rapidly-evolving tech landscape, what the future of payment might look like, and how different blockchain technologies differently impact the environment.
Stats: 76 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468669970930450432
Date: 2021-12-08 19:53:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468669969948889088)
Body: The more rudimentary questions have come from a place of knowledge seeking and not one of derision -- things like explanation of how the technology works toward the (really cool) use cases the panelists have been talking about, and not "
Stats: 102 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468669969948889088
Date: 2021-12-08 19:53:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468669968787062788)
Body: And that's understandable, too. Over the past years (especially 2021), there's been a TON of institutional adoption and mainstream acceptance / awareness of crypto -- it's really exciting that congress is following a similar trajectory.
Stats: 113 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468669968787062788
Date: 2021-12-08 19:53:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468669967683964934)
Body: This hearing, though, has felt different. Almost every member of this committee has been between hesitant -- but inquisitive / open to the idea that their concerns can be addressed -- and outright enthusiastic about figuring out a way to make crypto a part of the U.S. landscape.
Stats: 198 likes, 10 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468669967683964934
Date: 2021-12-08 19:53:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468669966694207489)
Body: This is super understandable! Most people had barely heard of crypto, and a lot of the context in which people *had* heard of it was government seizure of criminals' coins. There were outliers, for sure, but many people involved were in a similar spot to the typical American.
Stats: 96 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468669966694207489
Date: 2021-12-08 19:53:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468669965733707781)
Body: Back in 2018, there were congressional hearings about crypto, too. Congresspeople had a lot of rudimentary questions. A lot of the questions were basically antagonistic, clearly coming from the perspective of "this is probably a scam, my goal is probably nixing it."
Stats: 122 likes, 2 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468669965733707781
Date: 2021-12-08 19:53:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468669964781563904)
Body: Not investment advice.
Stats: 84 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468669964781563904
Date: 2021-12-08 19:53:00 GMT
Body: Quick thoughts on the congressional hearing that's wrapping up.
A thread about the "future of finance."
Stats: 754 likes, 155 retweets, 18 quote tweets, 30 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468642445244129284
Date: 2021-12-08 18:03:39 GMT
Body: he loves me, he loves me not https://t.co/TBr451PC03
Stats: 186 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468642329271713794
Date: 2021-12-08 18:03:12 GMT
Body: Someone create Mongoose Coin ASAP
Stats: 1023 likes, 59 retweets, 10 quote tweets, 91 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468623987987173379
Date: 2021-12-08 16:50:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468614369357484039)
Body: (not investment advice, not public speaking advice, also not serious, I think everyone involved has been forthcoming and collaborative)
Stats: 127 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468621272330420224
Date: 2021-12-08 16:39:31 GMT
Body: Joking aside -- I think this has felt pretty productive and not at all antagonistic (on either side) so far.
Stats: 603 likes, 16 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 33 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468614369357484039
Date: 2021-12-08 16:12:05 GMT
Body: They're not asking @SBF_FTX anything because they don't wanna get dunked on.
Stats: 2127 likes, 93 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 74 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468612990941507590
Date: 2021-12-08 16:06:37 GMT
Body: let @cmsintern testify about memes
Stats: 212 likes, 6 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468610604982312967
Date: 2021-12-08 15:57:08 GMT
Body: ok say what you want but opening a speech with "I'm concerned about your company" is great https://t.co/HoRcSBNIEh
Stats: 326 likes, 5 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 33 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468604886459863048
Date: 2021-12-08 15:34:24 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1468604541935538176)
Body: @cmsholdings @cmsintern to be fair this is a good idea
Stats: 58 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468604318723063821
Date: 2021-12-08 15:32:09 GMT
Body: Believe it not he's also playing League here. https://t.co/S6LHfieIU5
Stats: 1346 likes, 55 retweets, 11 quote tweets, 47 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468601881056399367
Date: 2021-12-08 15:22:28 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1468601661815988229)
Body: @cmsholdings jeremy astaire
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468600038649704454
Date: 2021-12-08 15:15:09 GMT
Body: I've never understood why they always say "rules of the road" when "rules" would suffice
Stats: 73 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468598423721025538
Date: 2021-12-08 15:08:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468598393245163523)
Body: alpha tbh
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468598393245163523
Date: 2021-12-08 15:08:36 GMT
Body: did she say "I now recognize myself"
Stats: 65 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468594264171028480
Date: 2021-12-08 14:52:12 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1468588122468499462)
Body: @SBF_FTX ask if they have cubes
Stats: 405 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 18 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468321914359844869
Date: 2021-12-07 20:49:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468321467431596036)
Quoted tweet: @coinmamba: @SBF_Alameda You don't force someone to use your exchange for making a bet. That's not how we do it..
Body: @cmsholdings same energy
https://t.co/STqJcPc6sg
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468321467431596036
Date: 2021-12-07 20:48:12 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1468320440699568131)
Body: @cmsholdings you want me to go to a CASINO to make a BET?
Stats: 43 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468299585709912070
Date: 2021-12-07 19:21:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1468294440758517764)
Body: OOOH is this "TA"
Stats: 56 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468294440758517764
Date: 2021-12-07 19:00:48 GMT
Body: does BTC have an AWS beta https://t.co/RHhYdZXsMK
Stats: 177 likes, 5 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 24 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468245482820542479
Date: 2021-12-07 15:46:16 GMT
Replying to: @MTS_Store (Tweet ID: 1468241573477597194)
Body: @MTS_Store @rsalame7926
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1468061241792991235
Date: 2021-12-07 03:34:09 GMT
Replying to: @ledgerstatus (Tweet ID: 1468046322859134980)
Body: @ledgerstatus podcasting
Stats: 128 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467997907949395968
Date: 2021-12-06 23:22:29 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1467997676646055941)
Body: @OrangePaulp preheating is a time wasting scam invented by Big Electricity
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467997353617629193
Date: 2021-12-06 23:20:17 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1467997109232275466)
Body: @OrangePaulp my time to shine
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467977476391460866
Date: 2021-12-06 22:01:18 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1467977354194526208)
Body: @jackshaftoes @cmsholdings i'd like you to be removed from this chat
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467977234753507336
Date: 2021-12-06 22:00:21 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1467975694428819457)
Body: @cmsholdings how many certified grade a greenbacks is that
Stats: 32 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467584580236587009
Date: 2021-12-05 20:00:04 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1467380801268588544)
Body: @OrangePaulp @mfbenji a beautiful soul ❤️
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467275638709145601
Date: 2021-12-04 23:32:27 GMT
Replying to: @RonnayoPA (Tweet ID: 1467233206684557314)
Body: @RonnayoPA #2/#3 obviously don't merit interaction from me, but:
- I did not say #1 -- I said there are futures which we were short at a premium and then closed at a discount, all of which were part of delta-neutral spreads
- #1 is certainly false
Stats: 33 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467266714006077440
Date: 2021-12-04 22:56:59 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1467265958859399173)
Body: @SBF_FTX you did "upgrades" but still no TRUMP_JAN_2022 https://t.co/FyYVYvE8PS
Stats: 67 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467262409689767941
Date: 2021-12-04 22:39:53 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoCred (Tweet ID: 1467123553044684809)
Body: @CryptoCred happens
Stats: 42 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467255560353497089
Date: 2021-12-04 22:12:40 GMT
Body: I'm gathering from twitter that I can feel vindicated for never looking up what "stock to flow" means
Stats: 716 likes, 23 retweets, 8 quote tweets, 52 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467226924736991241
Date: 2021-12-04 20:18:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219750489141250)
Body: (note that at literally every point of Alameda's existence we have been long many products and short many others, aiming to lock in spreads)
Stats: 58 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219768885272579
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219761197113362)
Body: For now, though, I'll suck it up and keep sacrificing a weekend here and there to take advantage of the inefficiency. Hard to find better trading than on a day like yesterday! https://t.co/yHj4qooVzT
Stats: 299 likes, 4 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219761197113362
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219753769082880)
Body: ... or, for a few minutes, the entire market can be "way off" where it should be as a result of forced selling. This stuff *should* get eroded away over time, and likely will if big firms are incentivized to keep entering the space. https://t.co/ynyxksZI9N
Stats: 162 likes, 7 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219753769082880
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219752313667586)
Body: Ultimately, while I do stand by my claims that the market has gotten *more* efficient over time and will continue to, this past day has demonstrated that it's certainly not *efficient* just yet -- circumstances can definitely line up to lead to specific products are way off ...
Stats: 151 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219752313667586
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219750489141250)
Body: Which isn't even to go into how awesome it was to buy deltas right when the selling liquidations stopped -- but that's old news by now, the *second* a bunch of forced selling no one wanted to do ends, it's been pretty predictably good to get the other side for years now.
Stats: 172 likes, 6 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219750489141250
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219743690141698)
Body: ... and firms like us who were short futures which had previously been at positive premia were able to close at a large profit (further contributing to the OI wipe-out we noted before). https://t.co/INyhK0LWSB
Stats: 239 likes, 17 retweets, 33 quote tweets, 18 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219743690141698
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219740716421121)
Body: Another factor was that futures got to GIANT discounts to spot in some cases -- here's a snippet of Alameda's tool we use to track that type of data. That's chiefly because people were forced to sell into low liquidity ... https://t.co/TNNgbaeGUP
Stats: 145 likes, 8 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219740716421121
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219739248320513)
Quoted tweet: @lawmaster: Total open interest has gone down from $21.6 billion to $16.7 billion in about 30 minutes. This would mean that almost $5 billion of open interest evaporated. This tends to be a much better proxy for liquidations because exchanges now massively limiting liquidations data
Body: All of this ended up meaning that open interest got REALLY wiped out across the board. Much of this was from liquidations (even though, as Larry notes, some of the exchanges aren't fully reporting these anymore).
https://t.co/Ht8yEP4eVX
Stats: 172 likes, 11 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219739248320513
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219737902043140)
Body: ... but the bids they were getting market-ordered into were thinner, causing:
- more price impact
- and more liquidations, since the prices got REALLY low in many cases (these two effects feed off of each other)
Stats: 131 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219737902043140
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219735746121733)
Body: Part of the reason it was still substantial WAS the low liquidity -- on various exchanges, BTC got sub-$30k for a moment! And that was because of how little liquidity sits on the book during super-off-hours. The initial liquidations were the same size as usual ...
Stats: 164 likes, 6 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219735746121733
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219723905556491)
Body: These line up for our favorite effect -- liquidations cascades. Tons of levered longs have been opened in the past month -- nothing special, just what always happened in crypto. In fact, the insane leverage IS lower than it used to be -- but the effect was still substantial. https://t.co/SUIuyNKTwH
Stats: 190 likes, 8 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219723905556491
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:16 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219719589703682)
Body: A few features of this move were important:
- the price of BTC, for instance, was nearing in on a longtime local minimum -- sub-$53k hadn't happened since early October, the same day it crossed $50k
- it was late Friday U.S. / early weekend Asia, among the lowest-liquidity times https://t.co/UaGTDqHdC1
Stats: 135 likes, 7 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219719589703682
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219715986759683)
Body: A version of this happened on Friday, too -- equities ended up net down a bit yet again (though, IMO, there wasn't an *obvious* COVID-related impetus this time -- general sentiment has been bad, though), and crypto followed suit yet again. https://t.co/WRvgPSkwL3
Stats: 89 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219715986759683
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219714309033987)
Body: All week since news of the Omicron variant got out, both the equities markets and the crypto markets have been up-and-down -- or, rather, down-and-up, as various "bad" pieces of info about the variant tank the markets, and then they recover in the days/hours afterward.
Stats: 109 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219714309033987
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467219711830151178)
Body: Not investment advice.
Stats: 72 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467219711830151178
Date: 2021-12-04 19:50:13 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: It's been a weird few days in the markets -- both crypto and non-crypto alike. But honestly, it's all starting to feel a little familiar ...
A thread about efficiency. https://t.co/KJ9B7EMnMO
Body: The insane price swings of the past day merit a follow-up to this thread -- as well as an updated interpretation of what's been going on in the markets more generally.
A thread about inefficiency. https://t.co/ObpEgFqrQS https://t.co/lItm6fxamM
Stats: 1124 likes, 276 retweets, 69 quote tweets, 109 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467019092376883202
Date: 2021-12-04 06:33:02 GMT
Replying to: @lawmaster (Tweet ID: 1467018588028604416)
Body: @lawmaster @SBF_FTX premium moved a TON, would bet that triggered some big short positions to buy back as perps got super cheap
Stats: 68 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467018491245047813
Date: 2021-12-04 06:30:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1467018448395980803)
Body: (NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE)
Stats: 144 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 13 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1467018448395980803
Date: 2021-12-04 06:30:28 GMT
Body: hey bitcoin, counterpoint, it's the weekend and I was having fun
Stats: 968 likes, 36 retweets, 14 quote tweets, 55 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1466872168520761353
Date: 2021-12-03 20:49:12 GMT
Replying to: @nlw (Tweet ID: 1466869285448474635)
Body: @nlw sir how would you know it went back up without looking at the price
Stats: 143 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 17 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1466531852454350852
Date: 2021-12-02 22:16:55 GMT
Replying to: @0xmaybach (Tweet ID: 1466454909755265028)
Body: @0xmaybach @UpOnlyTV @carolinecapital ooh we can do the wedding live on air!
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1466508585882599439
Date: 2021-12-02 20:44:27 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1466504994132316165)
Body: @cmsholdings @cmsintern are they giving you severance?
Stats: 44 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1466455479350083585
Date: 2021-12-02 17:13:26 GMT
Replying to: @cobie (Tweet ID: 1466421608101339139)
Body: @CryptoCobain @SBF_FTX @carolinecapital We're registered at Porsche.
Stats: 120 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1466183473111175175
Date: 2021-12-01 23:12:35 GMT
Replying to: @samofamohk (Tweet ID: 1466183319482089473)
Body: @samofamohk @AlamedaResearch @tonyresearch is doing his best with the resources he has
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1466137826043514883
Date: 2021-12-01 20:11:11 GMT
Replying to: @tonyresearch (Tweet ID: 1466137695919378433)
Body: @tonyresearch we counted the rings and everything
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1466136790612557825
Date: 2021-12-01 20:07:05 GMT
Body: @o2sf3 i'm pretty surprised they went with that instead of "current NYT crossword writer" which seems to hit at the same thing but i think is cooler
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1466134656793853953
Date: 2021-12-01 19:58:36 GMT
Quoted tweet: @Forbes: Meet the #ForbesUnder30 Class of 2022: https://t.co/VFjCmCOiEA https://t.co/LqqHhMuM9v
Body: this is kinda fun
https://t.co/TOJofAnODf https://t.co/c4bYkfwEfP
Stats: 154 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 26 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1466113024427802634
Date: 2021-12-01 18:32:38 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1466112768440946689)
Body: @cmsholdings should replace them with the CTO
Stats: 41 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465830664595456003
Date: 2021-11-30 23:50:38 GMT
Replying to: @cewh1te (Tweet ID: 1465830447305437185)
Body: @cewh1te https://t.co/b1sAPojATt
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465830403449761794
Date: 2021-11-30 23:49:36 GMT
Replying to: @cewh1te (Tweet ID: 1465829399509536773)
Body: @cewh1te sir what
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806119536836609
Date: 2021-11-30 22:13:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806112507240455)
Body: It's hard enough to be a great "level one" trader -- figuring out what's happening and reacting. The next level up is even harder as it requires figuring out how others will react to what's happening and reacting to *that*.
But it's where the $ is, so it's where we'll be, too. https://t.co/rzKkB41WAv
Stats: 608 likes, 42 retweets, 7 quote tweets, 48 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806112507240455
Date: 2021-11-30 22:13:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806110581997571)
Body: That's what Alameda is always trying to do. We figured that the timescale for today's COVID price cycle would be quicker than last time -- but hours wasn't what we were thinking :P
We'll need to update for the (probably inevitable) next bit of COVID news that rocks the market.
Stats: 242 likes, 1 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806110581997571
Date: 2021-11-30 22:13:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806103015575562)
Body: Over time as more traders understand these kinds of effects, the market will, as a natural consequence, get more and more efficient. We've seen that as recently as today!
It means that figuring these kinds of trades out *early* matters a lot more than it used to. https://t.co/e0jYF74HSI
Stats: 200 likes, 6 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806103015575562
Date: 2021-11-30 22:13:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806095893598215)
Body: A market where moves like this don't happen is called "efficient" -- on some level, if the reversion over the weekend was 100% predictable, any time BTC spent e.g. under $56k didn't "make sense" -- it was always gonna go back up. That makes the market "inefficient." https://t.co/0x4xwklL4J
Stats: 176 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806095893598215
Date: 2021-11-30 22:13:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806093997727745)
Body: This can't keep happening. Eventually the effect-to-reversion time just keeps getting shorter and shorter until it's just instant -- but that's the same as no effect at all!
Put a different way -- eventually the market learns the net effect is ca. 0, so no one ever sells.
Stats: 258 likes, 5 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806093997727745
Date: 2021-11-30 22:13:00 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806089992159241)
Body: ... it looks awfully familiar, but this time it only took a few hours. https://t.co/owiv4NBjBZ
Stats: 147 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806089992159241
Date: 2021-11-30 22:12:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806087773425664)
Quoted tweet: @FinTaxBot: Moderna chief predicts existing vaccines will struggle with Omicron - Stéphane Bancel foresees ‘material drop’ in effectiveness of current jabs against new variant... #financenews Read more on https://t.co/XndNgwt3lK https://t.co/yRsKcJjQxY
Body: And what about this bit of news about the vaccines not being that effective against Omicron?
https://t.co/hcBtWTxSXK
I shouldn't have to tell you this, but ...
Stats: 107 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806087773425664
Date: 2021-11-30 22:12:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806083692408838)
Body: And, in particular, each time, it has recovered more quickly than the last.
So over the weekend when Omicron started looking not cataclysmic after all ... well, BTC recovered. All the way! Not even 4 days this time. https://t.co/94LaPrEV8V
Stats: 209 likes, 5 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806083692408838
Date: 2021-11-30 22:12:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806075580624900)
Body: What's the other thing that has always happened, though?
COVID: took 6 months to recover
Delta: took 2 weeks/months to recover
It always recovers! (Assuming nothing, like, cataclysmic happens I guess). https://t.co/f63TfHZY7Q
Stats: 162 likes, 2 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806075580624900
Date: 2021-11-30 22:12:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806068022489104)
Body: ... but also, at this point, because it's what people expect. It happened in March 2020, it happened for Delta (and Alpha, though I skipped that because it was less intense), so why wouldn't it happen for Omicron? The market is learning! https://t.co/clrwKTNxu7
Stats: 182 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806068022489104
Date: 2021-11-30 22:12:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806065195487236)
Body: This should be familiar -- BTC acts like a risk-on asset for these things and as such has a negative response to bad COVID news. As has happened every time! And it moves with a >1 beta, as has always happened -- both because of some liquidations ...
Stats: 167 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806065195487236
Date: 2021-11-30 22:12:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806061659635717)
Quoted tweet: @DrEricDing: ⚠️“DOMINANT”… a new variant is worrying epidemiologists—called #B11529–it has just “becoming dominant” in South Africa, displacing even #DeltaVariant (HT @MoshabelaMosa). And our other variant #C12 also growing. B11529 has an “awful spike profile” says @PeacockFlu. 🧵 #COVID19 https://t.co/3c9VXXp1q6
Body: That brings us to Omicron. News started spreading about 5 days ago that a new, potentially faster-spreading, potentially-who-knows-maybe more virulent than the others.
https://t.co/DEPP8RlHKz
The market spoke quickly, with equities falling a few % and BTC even more. https://t.co/r3ZznFv6jt
Stats: 122 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806061659635717
Date: 2021-11-30 22:12:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806059445141504)
Body: (FWIW I am not making any claims here about how bad these things were for the world or whatever -- only talking about market impact, I understand that Delta caused a lot of problems.)
Stats: 122 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806059445141504
Date: 2021-11-30 22:12:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806054630076420)
Body: BTC's response to that Delta-led equities move was a little more complicated since it triggered the massive sell-off because of liquidation-based momentum, the one down to $30k. BTC still recovered! But it took 2ish months instead of 2ish weeks. https://t.co/l4uoumEGyh
Stats: 141 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806054630076420
Date: 2021-11-30 22:12:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806050649681921)
Body: Cool -- but COVID, obviously, is not over, and new COVID-related news has continued to impact the markets in both directions since mid-2020.
Remember when the Delta variant caused a 5% SPX crash in May 2021? That was undone too, but this time over weeks instead of months. https://t.co/ti3RAR5EOg
Stats: 149 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806050649681921
Date: 2021-11-30 22:12:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806043078746114)
Body: Separately, I think crypto was the beneficiary of some follow-on "we're bored in lockdown so we're buying all the DOGE"-type effects over the next months, but the thing I'm establishing right now is the market's propensity to recover from COVID-driven moves. https://t.co/VHelQwxOff
Stats: 165 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806043078746114
Date: 2021-11-30 22:12:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806038301659143)
Body: What followed, though, was a *complete* recovery for equities -- which were still leading the crypto markets, and therefore led to a complete recovery for crypto!
This makes sense, on some level -- the world figured out a way for its economic prospects to grow despite COVID. https://t.co/R47JswrIQc
Stats: 152 likes, 1 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806038301659143
Date: 2021-11-30 22:12:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806034975576076)
Body: Let's flash back for a moment to my favorite day to bring up on Twitter: March 12, 2020. At this point, we all know roughly what happened there:
- the world decided COVID was bad
- equity markets crashed
- crypto markets crashed even more (liquidations, etc. -> big momentum) https://t.co/vl5wGS5QVV
Stats: 161 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806034975576076
Date: 2021-11-30 22:12:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1465806032886767622)
Body: (not investment advice!)
Stats: 98 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465806032886767622
Date: 2021-11-30 22:12:46 GMT
Body: It's been a weird few days in the markets -- both crypto and non-crypto alike. But honestly, it's all starting to feel a little familiar ...
A thread about efficiency. https://t.co/KJ9B7EMnMO
Stats: 1936 likes, 392 retweets, 87 quote tweets, 94 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465771021487771651
Date: 2021-11-30 19:53:38 GMT
Replying to: @Equipoise69 (Tweet ID: 1465759118346567683)
Body: @Equipoise69 @jackshaftoes @SBF_FTX @jackshaftoes the people have spoken
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465758509803446276
Date: 2021-11-30 19:03:55 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1465707042211971091)
Body: @jackshaftoes @SBF_FTX who?
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465413257699766280
Date: 2021-11-29 20:12:01 GMT
Body: Not sure which of them should be more offended, the outgoing CEO whose resignation caused a 10% rally or the incoming CEO whose appointment undid it https://t.co/KBQOEb9Uih
Stats: 1882 likes, 110 retweets, 20 quote tweets, 80 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1465396623568248839
Date: 2021-11-29 19:05:55 GMT
Quoted tweet: @BarrySilbert: You're going to start hearing a lot more about Stamford, Connecticut
Body: It’s where the American Crossword Puzzle Tournament is held every year — I’m sure this is what he meant right https://t.co/yNjGDqXYPp
Stats: 102 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 13 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1464275117941342214
Date: 2021-11-26 16:49:27 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1464274627736309763)
Body: @cmsholdings maybe you could hook me up with a little stimmy
Stats: 43 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1464270622100492295
Date: 2021-11-26 16:31:35 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1463975322446143497)
Body: @cmsholdings ugh same I've never felt like such a normie
Stats: 44 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1464104809666076673
Date: 2021-11-26 05:32:43 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1464023564538023943)
Body: @SBF_FTX wen GOPHER listing
Stats: 69 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463999708825849857
Date: 2021-11-25 22:35:05 GMT
Replying to: @DanSmithHolla (Tweet ID: 1463999297221840896)
Body: @DanSmithHolla dude he inspires everything i do
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463996789795733509
Date: 2021-11-25 22:23:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1463996785354055680)
Body: And I'm thankful that I've been in the right place at the right time more times than I could possibly list. I think back on my life and how different it would be if I hadn't gotten super lucky like thirty different times -- and I can't help but be grateful.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Stats: 123 likes, 8 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 20 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463996785354055680
Date: 2021-11-25 22:23:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1463996779427471364)
Body: I'm thankful for tungsten, cubes, and, especially, Tungsten Cubes. Even though mine ruined my floor. https://t.co/WV2hchABov
Stats: 39 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463996779427471364
Date: 2021-11-25 22:23:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1463996778013986823)
Body: Seriously though, I'm thankful for understanding math and expected value and variance and whatnot! I did that stuff in middle school because it was all I was great at, let's just say that using it to justify a large DOGE trade last January was not on my mind at the time.
Stats: 45 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463996778013986823
Date: 2021-11-25 22:23:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1463996776713703424)
Body: I'm thankful for Thomas Bayes, everyone give it up for Thomas Bayes.
https://t.co/zTAxxGQ14A
Stats: 64 likes, 4 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463996776713703424
Date: 2021-11-25 22:23:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1463996775505842176)
Body: And I'm thankful that volumes, market caps, diversity of products, and diversity of platforms are all up so much this year! Crypto continues morphing closer to its "potential" as the future of finance, and all of those things are important pieces.
Stats: 21 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463996773710577666
Date: 2021-11-25 22:23:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1463996769709211648)
Body: I'm thankful that, despite any challenges, the world is (slowly, at times) catching up to the understanding that crypto is likely going to be a part of our lives moving forward. Institutional adoption is obvious, and, well, this is BTC over the past year: https://t.co/ExLalUlvMK
Stats: 38 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463996769709211648
Date: 2021-11-25 22:23:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1463996757428293637)
Body: I'm thankful for caffeine, everyone give it up for caffeine. https://t.co/RgDUY1aMQk
Stats: 139 likes, 11 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463996757428293637
Date: 2021-11-25 22:23:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1463996756035837959)
Body: I'm thankful for my friends and family who still like me even though I cancel plans when the market crashes, or move across the world without notice, or talk too much about NFTs.
Sorry I'm missing Thanksgiving again!
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463996756035837959
Date: 2021-11-25 22:23:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1463996754207125509)
Body: ... and I'm especially thankful that I can sleep now since we've been able to grow so much this year without lowering our (extremely high) bar! This page used to be a lot emptier (and is still only a fraction of the great people we have now): https://t.co/19U4HSwZsA
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463996754207125509
Date: 2021-11-25 22:23:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1463996752973946882)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What Alameda is trying to do still astounds me, to some degree. A tiny team -- ten people, at some points, not even triple that now -- trying to build the world's best crypto quant trading firm, and OTC desk, and MM service, all 24/7. It sounds impossible. https://t.co/WN4bi7rEYX
Body: I'm thankful for the wonderful team I get to be a part of -- there's very little I'd be willing to commit myself to like I have to this, and the people I'm around are so much of that.
https://t.co/5s9WfWVkV4
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463996752973946882
Date: 2021-11-25 22:23:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1463996751212429315)
Body: Today and every day, I'm thankful to be doing the most interesting work in the world. Full stop, there's just no problem more interesting than the ones we're solving at Alameda, no game more fun than crypto trading -- it's always evolving but never any less of a thrill.
Stats: 36 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463996751212429315
Date: 2021-11-25 22:23:19 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What happened on Thanksgiving 2020?
(Market color edition -- a thread about why liquidity matters) https://t.co/jAAeUi8GA7
Body: Can't believe this was a year ago! So much has changed -- for me, for Alameda, and for the market more generally.
A thread about what I am thankful for.
https://t.co/POuO8KuclH
Stats: 277 likes, 22 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 19 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463994246118191106
Date: 2021-11-25 22:13:22 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1463975478977609729)
Body: @rsalame7926 @ScottySalame gm (good meal)
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463583744862867467
Date: 2021-11-24 19:02:11 GMT
Replying to: @MTS_Store (Tweet ID: 1463561816848715778)
Body: @MTS_Store @yuvadm cubes were harmed in the making of this product!
Stats: 50 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1463238613567782912
Date: 2021-11-23 20:10:45 GMT
Quoted tweet: @coinglass_com: Bybit has followed suit with Binance and restricted their liquidation data. A very unfortunate trend. It goes against the spirit of the blockchain, and users don’t have the right to obtain public data.
Body: please sir stop harshing my mellow https://t.co/wLB62O4H9h
Stats: 101 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1462874498617774092
Date: 2021-11-22 20:03:54 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1462872838969466880)
Body: @rsalame7926 what's the blue stuff in the front for
Stats: 32 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1462864385945264133
Date: 2021-11-22 19:23:42 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1462846553371123714)
Body: @cmsholdings bolster
Stats: 89 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1462861346329006086
Date: 2021-11-22 19:11:38 GMT
Replying to: @AutismCapital (Tweet ID: 1462860921231970314)
Body: @AutismCapital there's not that much broken glass
Stats: 29 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1462528718304329733
Date: 2021-11-21 21:09:53 GMT
Body: “My dad likes traditional tokens and my mom likes dog coins ... if you dig deep enough it’s why they got divorced” — alameda employee
Stats: 766 likes, 30 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 51 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1461733524793438214
Date: 2021-11-19 16:30:04 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1461705350239985667)
Body: @SBF_FTX should've shown up later
Stats: 47 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1461459349847609348
Date: 2021-11-18 22:20:36 GMT
Replying to: @tonyresearch (Tweet ID: 1461458996888436736)
Body: @tonyresearch great work today tony
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1461160119815782406
Date: 2021-11-18 02:31:34 GMT
Replying to: @0xArchie (Tweet ID: 1461147550979739650)
Body: @0xArchie weird tweet
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1461131658111893507
Date: 2021-11-18 00:38:28 GMT
Replying to: @NeerajKA (Tweet ID: 1461077436909727751)
Body: @NeerajKA happiness
Stats: 66 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1461008505633226755
Date: 2021-11-17 16:29:06 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1461005186491723787)
Body: @cmsholdings what’s “america”
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1460442208939560961
Date: 2021-11-16 02:58:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1460442165524381696)
Body: @cmsholdings not investment advice
Stats: 45 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1460442165524381696
Date: 2021-11-16 02:58:40 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1460440072659120132)
Body: @cmsholdings give me your wallet
Stats: 57 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1460440078057033728
Date: 2021-11-16 02:50:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1460439966471770115)
Body: @cmsholdings - marilyn monroe
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1460439966471770115
Date: 2021-11-16 02:49:56 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1460437540792586240)
Body: @cmsholdings it takes money to make money
Stats: 103 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 14 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1460428671546650629
Date: 2021-11-16 02:05:03 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1460392104455290887)
Body: @cmsholdings honestly this is a great idea
Stats: 47 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1460428503258566656
Date: 2021-11-16 02:04:23 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1460416237326979072)
Body: @OrangePaulp is this "being alive"
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1459996651985125377
Date: 2021-11-14 21:28:21 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1459985710442819586)
Body: @cmsholdings @JimboSamso @jchervinsky @gladstein they’re surprisingly liquid yeah
Stats: 72 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1459750091061805059
Date: 2021-11-14 05:08:37 GMT
Body: cube safety needs to be taught in schools https://t.co/5TiGDATl94
Stats: 407 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 46 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1459647838837608448
Date: 2021-11-13 22:22:18 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1459379566716334081)
Body: @OrangePaulp better early than never
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1459064166384238595
Date: 2021-11-12 07:43:00 GMT
Replying to: @DeFi_Rugpull (Tweet ID: 1459064057395355649)
Body: @DeFi_Rugpull @SBF_FTX sir
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1459063693069590545
Date: 2021-11-12 07:41:07 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1458977775013011462)
Body: @SBF_FTX burgers are pretty boring, but idk how anyone advertises those..............
Stats: 57 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 22 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1458664989653303297
Date: 2021-11-11 05:16:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1458663217425649668)
Body: "will shortz" is a person you guys
Stats: 98 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 16 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1458663217425649668
Date: 2021-11-11 05:09:46 GMT
Body: will shortz leave me alone https://t.co/yh4RnAs74b
Stats: 142 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 26 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1458567231038640138
Date: 2021-11-10 22:48:21 GMT
Replying to: @MartiniGuyYTi (Tweet ID: 1458563411692998659)
Body: @Alamedatrabuco0 @Cringelifemuch ^please report this loser lol
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1458559359902912515
Date: 2021-11-10 22:17:04 GMT
Replying to: @tylerlinklevoss (Tweet ID: 1458551002160930817)
Body: @tylerlinklevoss @cmsholdings This was my assistant, Jacob. https://t.co/3DSAdczFYD
Stats: 29 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1458554896140025856
Date: 2021-11-10 21:59:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1458554649695244288)
Body: Also I'll write up some thoughts on what happened later but I'm not exactly sure what triggered the sell-off, TBH
Stats: 427 likes, 9 retweets, 10 quote tweets, 59 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1458554649695244288
Date: 2021-11-10 21:58:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1458554203920474115)
Body: (not investment or nutrition advice)
Stats: 241 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1458554203920474115
Date: 2021-11-10 21:56:35 GMT
Body: Went to the store, did I miss anything? https://t.co/qYzw2Td5xL
Stats: 2483 likes, 156 retweets, 55 quote tweets, 131 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1458259583936253962
Date: 2021-11-10 02:25:52 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1458251107839393792)
Body: @cmsholdings how many cubes on board
Stats: 48 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1457850106519048198
Date: 2021-11-08 23:18:45 GMT
Body: gm (growing market) https://t.co/vOFM9rf3wn
Stats: 583 likes, 23 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 44 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1457822489170485250
Date: 2021-11-08 21:29:01 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Getting more of these DMs than usual today so: I obviously do not have and never will have a paid telegram group :P
Body: Ooh I think they maybe rug-pulled today, the DMs have doubled again. https://t.co/DheqEqIfSp
Stats: 84 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1457817685727735813
Date: 2021-11-08 21:09:55 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1457800550376828938)
Body: @rsalame7926 gm king
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1457181589406769155
Date: 2021-11-07 03:02:18 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1457162949500473347)
Body: @OrangePaulp they'll be there when you need them, follow your heart
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1457086605244583936
Date: 2021-11-06 20:44:52 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1457086099646472192)
Body: @cmsholdings omg we need to get you to 100k ASAP
Stats: 83 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1457068764285964291
Date: 2021-11-06 19:33:59 GMT
Replying to: @RGPassif (Tweet ID: 1456779053818654722)
Body: @RmiGarcia5 it is obviously not real lol
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1456711729761505280
Date: 2021-11-05 19:55:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1456710094813491205)
Body: Like what’s even happening here? It looks like they translated my Twitter bio into Russian and then back? Why??? https://t.co/S9OgOhh78K
Stats: 57 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 20 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1456710094813491205
Date: 2021-11-05 19:48:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1456709723567235073)
Body: (and if you’re in one then tbh that’s on you but you should consider exiting)
Stats: 36 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 13 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1456709723567235073
Date: 2021-11-05 19:47:17 GMT
Body: Getting more of these DMs than usual today so: I obviously do not have and never will have a paid telegram group :P
Stats: 139 likes, 1 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 35 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1456654164709163008
Date: 2021-11-05 16:06:30 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1456623257784827914)
Body: @rsalame7926 gm ryan
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1456413982269399042
Date: 2021-11-05 00:12:06 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1456407186268114946)
Body: @cmsholdings Honestly I bet $80/gallon oat milk is bomb
Stats: 38 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1456345384872144903
Date: 2021-11-04 19:39:31 GMT
Replying to: @adamscochran (Tweet ID: 1456344438863761415)
Body: @adamscochran @delphiintern could be a "defense against the dark arts" situation
Stats: 59 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1456343202080854016
Date: 2021-11-04 19:30:51 GMT
Replying to: @delphiintern (Tweet ID: 1456341634178863104)
Body: @delphiintern what class is that
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1456335962242383872
Date: 2021-11-04 19:02:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1456335131111657479)
Body: there’s an easter egg in my background, iykyk
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 16 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1456335131111657479
Date: 2021-11-04 18:58:47 GMT
Body: going live on https://t.co/aCVgxlbZNY in a bit!
Stats: 52 likes, 1 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 17 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1456086000464130052
Date: 2021-11-04 02:28:49 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1456073616211251200)
Body: @OrangePaulp @Dat_Aspinall johnny's diner ERASURE
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1455731687250280450
Date: 2021-11-03 03:00:55 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1455697152269864960)
Body: @cmsholdings I lost once and no one was allowed to speak in the office for fourteen moons.
Stats: 122 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1455731256763699202
Date: 2021-11-03 02:59:12 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1455730866022457347)
Body: @rsalame7926 @FTX_Official @cmsholdings i'll always be grateful that you taught me gifs https://t.co/Eo5JPaAkSK
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1455730630340202510
Date: 2021-11-03 02:56:43 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1455721642613637124)
Body: @FTX_Official @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings ryan we think you're a different caliber of human too
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1455346405443194884
Date: 2021-11-02 01:29:56 GMT
Replying to: @maritobtc (Tweet ID: 1455344147330568193)
Body: @maritobtc @cmsholdings ooh so miami
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1455343827846242310
Date: 2021-11-02 01:19:42 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1455343392066519041)
Body: @cmsholdings sir what if my computer dies do i lose my coins
Stats: 138 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1454993706801500160
Date: 2021-11-01 02:08:26 GMT
Replying to: @cmspeary (Tweet ID: 1451182193414492169)
Body: @cmspeary @MidwestTungsten we talking elephant
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1454964929300033540
Date: 2021-11-01 00:14:05 GMT
Replying to: @zackvoell (Tweet ID: 1454962582197084163)
Body: @zackvoell good
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1454964879689846784
Date: 2021-11-01 00:13:53 GMT
Replying to: @theemilyaccount (Tweet ID: 1454962534621093892)
Body: @theemilyaccount iykyk
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1454961349004464135
Date: 2021-10-31 23:59:52 GMT
Body: This is a little cliché but I finally feel like I understand what love songs are singing about. https://t.co/Y6JZQEgoY9
Stats: 551 likes, 9 retweets, 7 quote tweets, 45 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1454137747506094088
Date: 2021-10-29 17:27:10 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1454135379116929027)
Body: @rsalame7926 @pythianism gm stands for greatest minds
Stats: 34 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1453808710246096896
Date: 2021-10-28 19:39:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1453808217948033024)
Body: Intent is never obvious of course, and it's hard to know whether it was someone making a typo or someone who doesn't understand how to get good execution. That's some BAD execution, though :P
Stats: 220 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 22 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1453808217948033024
Date: 2021-10-28 19:37:44 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsholdings: This the biggest fat finger ever
Body: It's the biggest I have ever seen by volume (not by price move or whatever but liquidity is up so much since the last one like it). https://t.co/MX9JqQyMvh
Stats: 508 likes, 25 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 33 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1452858763497594883
Date: 2021-10-26 04:44:56 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1452858543921565699)
Body: @cmsholdings @maritobtc @rsalame7926 @binance @coinbase @FTX_Official PuT It IN caPs
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1452858268884348929
Date: 2021-10-26 04:42:58 GMT
Replying to: @maritobtc (Tweet ID: 1452858181068148742)
Body: @maritobtc @rsalame7926 @binance @coinbase @FTX_Official do you have a source
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1452857139953811460
Date: 2021-10-26 04:38:29 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1452856968117424128)
Body: @rsalame7926 @binance @coinbase @FTX_Official are you not serious about cubes
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1452856812701618176
Date: 2021-10-26 04:37:11 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1452855958783283202)
Body: @rsalame7926 @binance @coinbase @FTX_Official what fraction of delays are cube-related
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1452741866277982215
Date: 2021-10-25 21:00:26 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: Right now, most crypto quarterly futures expire on different days than traditional futures.
E.g. crypto expires 12/31 but CME expires 12/21.
Which should we line FTX expirations up with?
Body: IMO Christmas causes the most chaos. https://t.co/EREzO6rFbq
Stats: 105 likes, 2 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 20 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1452653059667005440
Date: 2021-10-25 15:07:33 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1452652686638211073)
Body: @cmsholdings @rsalame7926 sir
Stats: 32 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451729472873451522
Date: 2021-10-23 01:57:32 GMT
Replying to: @dgreenstein1 (Tweet ID: 1451729071197597702)
Body: @dgreenstein1 @Forculus @cmsholdings @roshunpatel @tungstencubenft everyone, cubes are a human right
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451729086137647107
Date: 2021-10-23 01:56:00 GMT
Replying to: @ChiefNoOfficer (Tweet ID: 1451728519180931073)
Body: @ChiefNoOfficer @BTCBullALTBear @cmsholdings omg there's iron in these cubes fuck that
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451727282695966723
Date: 2021-10-23 01:48:50 GMT
Replying to: @Forculus (Tweet ID: 1451727028818903046)
Body: @Forculus @dgreenstein1 @cmsholdings @roshunpatel @tungstencubenft obviously
Stats: 21 likes, 4 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451724165493374978
Date: 2021-10-23 01:36:27 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1451724051160997897)
Body: @cmsholdings @roshunpatel sounds dense
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451723996660178951
Date: 2021-10-23 01:35:47 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1451723773653225474)
Body: @cmsholdings @roshunpatel *spitcubing
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451723638869221377
Date: 2021-10-23 01:34:21 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1451723409600176133)
Body: @cmsholdings @roshunpatel hear me out: cubes
Stats: 20 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451720061627031552
Date: 2021-10-23 01:20:09 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1451717948998131713)
Body: @cmsholdings @roshunpatel walk me through what this would be
Stats: 16 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451686139954352129
Date: 2021-10-22 23:05:21 GMT
Replying to: @FortuneFinance_ (Tweet ID: 1451682593276112898)
Body: @FortuneFinance_ OK it took me a minute to understand what was happening here but I'm into it
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451333606425694210
Date: 2021-10-21 23:44:30 GMT
Replying to: @lowstrife (Tweet ID: 1451326079218638851)
Body: @lowstrife Great point! I tend to bake this into my general EV calculation (my capital is tied up trading, that has some + EV from my trades, some - EV from risks like this), and then leverage is a multiplier on that. But making the risk explicit is important.
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451281820922884105
Date: 2021-10-21 20:18:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1451281813989646340)
Body: There are many considerations here! And probably the ideal is a happy medium where exchanges offer >1x but <<100x leverage (which is a model many exchanges have moved to / are moving to). It's been nice to see that evolution. https://t.co/OprSI34rsJ
Stats: 78 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 13 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451281813989646340
Date: 2021-10-21 20:18:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1451281812882350080)
Body: CON: great responsibility
... but, as we've seen from crypto's rampant liquidations, being allowed to use, for instance, 100x leverage is mostly bad for users who don't fully understand the risks they're taking. And exchanges lose customers who lose too many times.
Stats: 55 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451281812882350080
Date: 2021-10-21 20:18:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1451281811586359301)
Body: PRO: great power
To the extent people are careful with their money and exchanges have reasonable margin rules, leverage really can represent a win-win. Users get to (hopefully!) make more $, exchanges get more volume -> revenue. Everyone wins!
Stats: 51 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451281811586359301
Date: 2021-10-21 20:18:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1451281810424467456)
Body: CON: getting rekt
The price to pay for increased position sizing is that the exchange needs to liquidate you *before* you go bankrupt, which means that there's asymmetry introduced and people end up going bankrupt more often.
Stats: 49 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451281810424467456
Date: 2021-10-21 20:18:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1451281809325629443)
Body: PRO: scaling up
If a great trader is suddenly allowed to put their trades on 2x as big, that's great for them! And really good risk managers can often afford to lever up even more, which is especially nice in a world with so many uses for capital (trading, yield, NFTs, etc.).
Stats: 53 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451281809325629443
Date: 2021-10-21 20:18:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1451281808214142977)
Body: CON: price volatility
That said, vs. a world with 0 leverage, there can be more volume in the real world (esp. vs. liquidity) which can lead to increased short-term volatility (not to mention the volatility introduced by liquidations, see below).
Stats: 42 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451281808214142977
Date: 2021-10-21 20:18:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1451281807002030087)
Body: PRO: price discovery
When people can put on larger positions, there's some extent to which people who feel stronger about prices have more impact on prices, which should lead prices to be more "correct" in certain senses, at least faster than otherwise.
Stats: 60 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451281807002030087
Date: 2021-10-21 20:18:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1451281805584310273)
Body: (not investment advice)
Stats: 29 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1451281805584310273
Date: 2021-10-21 20:18:40 GMT
Quoted tweet: @CryptoCred: Lots of discussion as to whether leverage is a net positive in crypto.
Let’s be objective about this.
Leverage is good if I make money when I’m gambling.
Leverage is bad if I lose money when I’m gambling.
Body: Leverage in trading (specifically in crypto trading): pros and cons. https://t.co/bBjjUNT9Sz
Stats: 379 likes, 45 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 24 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450987622554378242
Date: 2021-10-21 00:49:41 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1450985449862926336)
Body: @cmsholdings @mhdempsey do you think goldman is interested in density
Stats: 61 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450959872703488007
Date: 2021-10-20 22:59:25 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1450851219237396480)
Body: @OrangePaulp that’s the natick collection to you
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450958431087648779
Date: 2021-10-20 22:53:42 GMT
Replying to: @Gold_Mansack (Tweet ID: 1450958271360159745)
Body: @Gold_Mansack Yeah not sure what's happening there :P it is a very very small part of the graph.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450957976446058496
Date: 2021-10-20 22:51:53 GMT
Replying to: @ThinkingUSD (Tweet ID: 1450957689752887296)
Body: @ThinkingUSD Sorry for the delay, crypto is sort of my side thing now, the cubes are my life.
Stats: 74 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450957069360709638
Date: 2021-10-20 22:48:17 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1450956825084506118)
Body: @cmsholdings @rsalame7926 told me he wants a tungsten octahedron
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450956770638278662
Date: 2021-10-20 22:47:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450956693324673024)
Body: @cmsholdings asking for a friend, not investment advice
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450956693324673024
Date: 2021-10-20 22:46:47 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1450953799921717248)
Body: @cmsholdings are there spheres?
Stats: 11 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955973561040901
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955967168925696)
Body: Learning how to trade these markets as they've evolved has been a lot of fun (being long during it has been pretty good too :P), and I'm excited to keep at it. The world is, increasingly, watching and trading with all of us, and it's a thrill to be a part of. https://t.co/EFWlGyQKe3
Stats: 363 likes, 7 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 29 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955967168925696
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955965726081037)
Body: Not *un*important, mind you -- but less. And that's exactly what you expect of a more mature market where exchanges have been cracking down on super high leverage and more volume is driven by conservative institutions.
Stats: 163 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955965726081037
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955959258554369)
Body: So ... I really do feel like I don't know which direction things will go (I could believe more good news, I could believe some bad news, I could believe the market decides this was too much of a rally, etc.). But I do think liquidations are FINALLY starting to be less important. https://t.co/XDuhlGvX6N
Stats: 191 likes, 7 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955959258554369
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955957878632452)
Body: And the same is true for an upside move, roughly. Near a local max, there's always some chance for really old shorts to get wiped out since we're at prices they've never had to fend off -- but SO many of those have been liquidated on the way up already.
Stats: 104 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955957878632452
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955956343480322)
Body: And, in fact, a lot less of the inflows were driven by the types of perps super prone to liquidations. So, while I have no idea whether the market will go up or down from here, I think there is less (but still not zero) chance that a downside move is really outsized.
Stats: 128 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955956343480322
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955953424289800)
Body: Check this graph out -- it's showing BTC futures open interest on the major platforms. Compared to April (when BTC was at the same price!), OIs are ca. 20% lower -- that means the potential for a huge liquidation-driven draw-down is WAY lower. https://t.co/Bhm4n8bOzC
Stats: 241 likes, 25 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955953424289800
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955951641616385)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Today was the first time I've been woken up because the market was moving in a while -- it's the biggest move we've seen in months! What happened?
A thread about history. https://t.co/o0ojE0kVLJ
Body: We *could* return to something like this pretty quickly:
https://t.co/qYQpkxB6bA
I'd definitely believe that at least a muted version of that could happen if there's bad news soon.
But I'd also believe we won't!
Stats: 91 likes, 3 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955951641616385
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955940560351239)
Body: So that's where we are. The natural question, of course: where are we going?
There's a real extent to which I think it's hard to say because this feels sorta unprecedented. https://t.co/GrlEr2ssnK
Stats: 101 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955940560351239
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955938983301120)
Body: (Note that it happened right around Eastern open -- this is a reasonable expectation, that there'd be momentum around that time, since it was quite likely a priori that the market was all watching BITO activity and planning to make the same basic directional bets around it.)
Stats: 98 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955938983301120
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955935556554756)
Body: And so, today, BTC achieved a new ATH (if you didn't hear) -- and that makes a lot of sense! The rumors pointed this direction, and, for once, the event kinda went as well as the rumors said -- so of course it kept out-performing expectations. https://t.co/BrlEX77PoW
Stats: 116 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955935556554756
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955933966913536)
Body: And the ETF has been going great! By all rights it's out-performing most anyone's expectations, and it's continued to fuel inflows (CME futures premia have been HIGH, and that's what makes up the BTC exposure from BITO).
https://t.co/6Geilj21KU
Stats: 125 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955933966913536
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955930645012490)
Body: A Bitcoin ETF has been discussed FOREVER, and rumors have been swirling, of late, about one (or more) finally getting U.S. approval. I think these rumors (-turned-confirmed-news) + people deciding they over-reacted to the 40th version of China banning BTC fueled most of this: https://t.co/1zzpYLMpYO
Stats: 121 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955930645012490
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955924085121029)
Body: And undo itself it did! Granted, plenty of new good news has happened, too:
- more institutions getting involved
- regulation has looked more and more plausibly good outside of e.g. China
- ... and, of course, the ETFs https://t.co/pTjuyibip8
Stats: 90 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955924085121029
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955922508029958)
Body: Flirting back down around $30k, it became unclear whether the (futures-driven, the first time) rally would ever happen again -- but given crypto's propensity for over-reacting to news, it seemed pretty reasonable to expect some of the news-driven downturn to undo itself, too.
Stats: 94 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955922508029958
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955920842887176)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Well. Crypto's crashed quite a bit in the past few days, leading up to a GIANT crash (BTC touched sub-$30k!) a few hours ago. It's ticked back up somewhat since, and started bouncing around a bit. What happened?
A thread about lemons and lemonade. https://t.co/LY8bXblDaH
Body: And so when the COIN listing didn't go as well as everyone was expecting, a small reversion turned into a HUGE one when a ton of the new levered longs got liquidated -- my old mantra!
Much of the rally got wiped out.
https://t.co/uDmTTq4mCu
Stats: 94 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955920842887176
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955919530119170)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: All throughout this big rally, there were a few weird things going on. Almost all the inflows were happening on futures platforms, and in particular on futures platforms with HUGE leverage, and where that huge leverage has historically led to big liquidiations ... https://t.co/90IaxLxBxL
Body: Despite a persistent narrative that the inflows were "organic this time, we swear!" and spot-driven, the data always told a different story.
https://t.co/I43fzn7rI9
Stats: 87 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955919530119170
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955918389260288)
Body: The last time BTC was this high, a few factors were (apparently) motivating it:
- institutions were buying in still
- regulation was going well, China hadn't canceled crypto recently
- the COIN IPO was fueling a lot of inflows
Stats: 129 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955918389260288
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450955916745003014)
Body: As usual, not investment advice.
Stats: 89 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450955916745003014
Date: 2021-10-20 22:43:42 GMT
Body: Well, we're back (and then some, as of writing). What happened?
A thread about where we've been, where we are, and what's different about them. https://t.co/q3vJb5s55W
Stats: 1373 likes, 248 retweets, 40 quote tweets, 47 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450917936001081344
Date: 2021-10-20 20:12:47 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: I'm working on a longer thread about the recent market moves, but a quick interlude about "company X bought/sold BTC" news: https://t.co/pwgunFZ48Z
Body: As an example, I do not consider this to be important at all but I bet you'll hear about it: https://t.co/PDftcKM0iQ https://t.co/qSLuHYycDD
Stats: 49 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450899200653340675
Date: 2021-10-20 18:58:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450899199499948034)
Body: Always remember to parse through the exact meaning when news like this pops up -- the words "BTC," "buy," and a big company name popping up together can look great (and often should!) -- but nothing is ever as simple as it looks.
(Except the cubes)
Stats: 94 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450899199499948034
Date: 2021-10-20 18:58:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450899198212247555)
Body: ... which is easiest to explain by the market over-estimating the extent to which these companies putting crypto on their balance sheets are intending to HODL and never sell anything. In other words, buys are leading to over-updates, and so, so are sales.
Stats: 34 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450899198212247555
Date: 2021-10-20 18:58:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450899196886794241)
Body: Was it a company who clearly would take profits at ATH? That shouldn't be any update at all! But a lot of discourse about this sort of thing happening is pretty negative, which suggests to me it's representing TOO MUCH of an update to most people.
Stats: 29 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450899196886794241
Date: 2021-10-20 18:58:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450899195775393797)
Body: Well it depends on what sort of update it represents. Was it a company who the world thought would HODL forever? Probably very few such companies exist :P but if the market truly thought so beforehand, then it can be an update that soon they'll sell the rest.
Stats: 27 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450899195775393797
Date: 2021-10-20 18:58:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450899194735169538)
Body: Category 3 is trickier -- often the reading of things like this is pretty negative. But ... should it be?
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450899194735169538
Date: 2021-10-20 18:58:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450899193510440972)
Body: Category 2 -- company X bought even more BTC -- is similar to company 40 doing it. MicroStrategy buying its 1st BTC was a BIG update. Them doing it for the 9th time? Not really any update at all! I would expect basically nothing about the price of BTC in the aftermath of that.
Stats: 33 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450899193510440972
Date: 2021-10-20 18:58:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450899192310808576)
Body: But if they're the 40th company to announce it ... was that really unexpected based on the first 39? And they're not saying we're GONNA buy it -- they usually say they BOUGHT it. So this category *can* mean very little, depending on how unexpected a priori it should have been.
Stats: 40 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450899192310808576
Date: 2021-10-20 18:58:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450899190943469570)
Body: Like, before Elon started buying BTC, who knew if any non-finance firms would? But him doing it told the world:
- maybe lots of others will follow
- maybe Elon will do this many more times!
And so that *can* represent big news.
Stats: 37 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450899190943469570
Date: 2021-10-20 18:58:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450899189760729094)
Body: The first of these -- company X bought its first BTC -- *can* be bullish, but not always. If, e.g., they're the first big fund (MicroStrategy) or non-finance company (Tesla) or something to do it, that tends to be a legit update.
Stats: 41 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450899189760729094
Date: 2021-10-20 18:58:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450899188485656583)
Body: These kinds of announcements can take a few forms; a few categories are:
- company X just bought BTC for the first time!
- company X bought even more BTC
- company X sold some of its BTC
Stats: 38 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450899188485656583
Date: 2021-10-20 18:58:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450899186841530375)
Body: (Not investment avdice)
Stats: 35 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450899186841530375
Date: 2021-10-20 18:58:17 GMT
Body: I'm working on a longer thread about the recent market moves, but a quick interlude about "company X bought/sold BTC" news: https://t.co/pwgunFZ48Z
Stats: 292 likes, 33 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450876023994781704
Date: 2021-10-20 17:26:14 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1450872269647978506)
Body: @rsalame7926 There's room for both.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450834599353987074
Date: 2021-10-20 14:41:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1450827388724686853)
Body: I hope I don't get canceled over this.
Stats: 79 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450827388724686853
Date: 2021-10-20 14:12:59 GMT
Body: osmium is denser than tungsten, discuss
Stats: 230 likes, 5 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 56 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450656785589800961
Date: 2021-10-20 02:55:04 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1450647333641744390)
Body: @rsalame7926 I need 10 mini cubes
Stats: 8 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450581701118369796
Date: 2021-10-19 21:56:42 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1450573502160023555)
Body: @cmsholdings ok but do they have cubes
Stats: 46 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450555701684801537
Date: 2021-10-19 20:13:23 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1450549308659585030)
Body: @rsalame7926 @SBF_FTX what
Stats: 63 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450531462126637058
Date: 2021-10-19 18:37:04 GMT
Replying to: @0xjres (Tweet ID: 1450518126580350983)
Body: @0x_jres @backbooked @cmsholdings @MidwestTungsten now he is
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450297111396982787
Date: 2021-10-19 03:05:51 GMT
Replying to: @depression2019 (Tweet ID: 1450296525167362053)
Body: @depression2019 I mean i tried
Stats: 43 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450296417394778112
Date: 2021-10-19 03:03:05 GMT
Body: https://t.co/JbqYbZsbjm
Stats: 342 likes, 7 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 42 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450251376576114689
Date: 2021-10-19 00:04:07 GMT
Replying to: @BrettHarrison88 (Tweet ID: 1450193424712413187)
Body: @Brett_FTXUS @SBF_FTX I believe they’re going with $BTFD :P
Stats: 91 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1450145134629343232
Date: 2021-10-18 17:01:57 GMT
Replying to: @zackvoell (Tweet ID: 1450132469588635648)
Body: @zackvoell The emergency number is 9-1-1.
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1449159583633747969
Date: 2021-10-15 23:45:43 GMT
Replying to: @tonipnd (Tweet ID: 1449158988008984579)
Body: @tonipnd @rsalame7926 @Timccopeland @nic__carter @NeerajKA @TheStalwart @CryptoCobain @Melt_Dem @nikhileshde @realDannyNelson sir what
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1449157111263506434
Date: 2021-10-15 23:35:54 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1449156983920209925)
Body: @rsalame7926 @Timccopeland @nic__carter @NeerajKA @TheStalwart @CryptoCobain @Melt_Dem @nikhileshde @realDannyNelson not getting something and not owning it are very different I’d expect you of all people to know that
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1449118637206515712
Date: 2021-10-15 21:03:01 GMT
Quoted tweet: @CoinDesk: BREAKING: @SECgov has greenlit the first US #bitcoin futures ETF, for ProShares.
@nikhileshde @realDannyNelson report
https://t.co/jE3w7GsZDQ
Body: https://t.co/CbwknNQ9if https://t.co/2SFJDYkMXx
Stats: 183 likes, 5 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1449040676851699717
Date: 2021-10-15 15:53:13 GMT
Replying to: @tonyresearch (Tweet ID: 1449034153471606785)
Body: @tonyresearch in experience
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1449028692454387714
Date: 2021-10-15 15:05:36 GMT
Replying to: @Timccopeland (Tweet ID: 1449028594945167406)
Body: @Timccopeland I ordered a cube and already self-identify as having one yes
Stats: 43 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1449026472920944650
Date: 2021-10-15 14:56:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1449025804210475030)
Body: @tonyresearch you'll be paid in cubes moving forward congratulations
Stats: 92 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1449025804210475030
Date: 2021-10-15 14:54:07 GMT
Body: BTC hit $60k again and my entire feed is cubes, PROBABLY NOTHING
Stats: 1697 likes, 59 retweets, 7 quote tweets, 53 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1448688409740984328
Date: 2021-10-14 16:33:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1448688210335436808)
Body: @cmsholdings @NeerajKA I'd like:
- cube jpegs
- printed out
- folded into cubes
Stats: 37 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1448688210335436808
Date: 2021-10-14 16:32:39 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1448685495928729611)
Body: @cmsholdings @NeerajKA cube jpegs
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1448437288262901763
Date: 2021-10-13 23:55:34 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1448436574090321921)
Body: @cmsholdings @ohmigo33 @TheStalwart Race you
Stats: 36 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1448436440929603587
Date: 2021-10-13 23:52:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1448436398260985865)
Body: @cmsholdings @ohmigo33 @TheStalwart I'd like my cube to be bigger than yours
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1448436398260985865
Date: 2021-10-13 23:52:02 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1448431938512039936)
Body: @cmsholdings @ohmigo33 @TheStalwart I can't find a bigger cube than this but if I get 8 do you think I can find someone to weld them together
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1448355416572891138
Date: 2021-10-13 18:30:15 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1448355132853325829)
Body: @cmsholdings @TensaiCapital what
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1448355262973284353
Date: 2021-10-13 18:29:38 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1448354622494674948)
Body: @cmsholdings @TensaiCapital is there a platform yet where I can leave these and generate different yield based on what shape they are
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1448351145391443970
Date: 2021-10-13 18:13:16 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1448300455042457615)
Body: @cmsholdings give me a cube I don't have a cube
Stats: 47 likes, 2 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1446003344191881216
Date: 2021-10-07 06:43:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1446003105208799237)
Body: @SBF_FTX Also, always good to see these thoughts leak onto Twitter
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1446003105208799237
Date: 2021-10-07 06:43:00 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1445993612857286656)
Body: @SBF_FTX What about
c) gay/bi women are more likely than gay/bi men to be in committed relationships
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1445569477211406336
Date: 2021-10-06 01:59:55 GMT
Replying to: @lsv (Tweet ID: 1445563068851818496)
Body: @lsv I had to do some work but will try later
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1445565225588060173
Date: 2021-10-06 01:43:01 GMT
Replying to: @ftx_app (Tweet ID: 1445562112940515340)
Body: @ftx_app https://t.co/95t6ThwYKv
Stats: 36 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1445539209570250756
Date: 2021-10-05 23:59:39 GMT
Replying to: @BitcoinLifeboat (Tweet ID: 1445535834086653954)
Body: @SeanKin04290862 @lsv Rx spells in the 1/3 or so of drafts where it's wide-open, UW, UG, GW, my drafts have been surprisingly open since UB-fest except that B has been consistently cut, I'm mostly hard avoiding B unless I have no choice
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1445534680661389327
Date: 2021-10-05 23:41:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1440523444651638789)
Body: @lsv dammit I'm close enough that I'm so tempted to make this the only thing I focus any energy on https://t.co/8XbAEWR5bQ
Stats: 75 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 27 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1445508587455848461
Date: 2021-10-05 21:57:58 GMT
Replying to: @motowngenelives (Tweet ID: 1445508496384880645)
Body: @motowngenelives @FTX_Official ahem
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1445507579489107970
Date: 2021-10-05 21:53:57 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1445500818849816576)
Body: @FTX_Official I like the "they'll never find a MM to do this!!!" comments
Stats: 116 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1444074299174776835
Date: 2021-10-01 22:58:37 GMT
Replying to: @Melt_Dem (Tweet ID: 1444073973289992195)
Body: @Melt_Dem @Achraf_yhy @mjpldn @aeyakovenko @SBF_FTX @KyleSamani @cz_binance @KariyaKanav I loved stratego and chess as a kid — I was also too into Scrqbble
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1444044818225647619
Date: 2021-10-01 21:01:28 GMT
Replying to: @Achraf_yhy (Tweet ID: 1443882230984679424)
Body: @Achraf_yhy @aeyakovenko @SBF_FTX @KyleSamani @Melt_Dem @cz_binance @KariyaKanav I mostly did math and played games
Stats: 41 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1443736964449013761
Date: 2021-10-01 00:38:10 GMT
Replying to: @theemilyaccount (Tweet ID: 1443733818855280643)
Body: @theemilyaccount finally someone says it
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1443725709654978561
Date: 2021-09-30 23:53:26 GMT
Replying to: @cited (Tweet ID: 1443725186948374529)
Body: @cited @cmsholdings (I understand what happened, this was a joke lol)
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1443724619580510208
Date: 2021-09-30 23:49:07 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1443687959702683650)
Body: @cmsintern @UpOnlyTV @CryptoCobain @ledgerstatus @rleshner @rleshner hmu
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1443724282740162560
Date: 2021-09-30 23:47:46 GMT
Replying to: @cited (Tweet ID: 1443723954968055808)
Body: @cited @cmsholdings I would have virtually 0 problem with this but also it's not really something that comes up
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1443724035733405712
Date: 2021-09-30 23:46:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1443723862957441035)
Body: @cmsholdings they received emojis aren't those NFTs
Stats: 19 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1443723862957441035
Date: 2021-09-30 23:46:06 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1443723258076057601)
Body: @cmsholdings honestly what is a "fake" NFT
Stats: 56 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1442592753569828869
Date: 2021-09-27 20:51:29 GMT
Replying to: @0xshortcake (Tweet ID: 1442592577652346892)
Body: @supreme_coin @ETH_Kamikaze @CryptoCred Same.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1442571330231029764
Date: 2021-09-27 19:26:21 GMT
Quoted tweet: @CryptoCred: Unfortunately @AlamedaTrabucco can’t make it — gonna banter with friends instead!
Body: I'm sorry this is because I apparently don't understand how Twitter works, I guess I'm a boomer :(
Will resched! https://t.co/6E9CjizA5Q
Stats: 217 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 24 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1442270375736340483
Date: 2021-09-26 23:30:28 GMT
Replying to: @BoxersPandoras (Tweet ID: 1442269259795554307)
Body: @BoxersPandoras @Virtue_Poker @MrBeast @philivey @ethereumJoseph @iamnickrose @paulpierce34 Now it is!
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1442263006604234755
Date: 2021-09-26 23:01:11 GMT
Quoted tweet: @Virtue_Poker: ♠️ Who do you think will win?
😎 Our money is on @philivey
https://t.co/pW7Qfja2df
Body: Starting in a few minutes! https://t.co/37FKhhlzQC
Stats: 42 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 16 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1442250389621854211
Date: 2021-09-26 22:11:03 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1442129250186838016)
Body: @cmsholdings 00101011100100101011010111001001
Stats: 41 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1441529845674954754
Date: 2021-09-24 22:27:52 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1441448687507582977)
Body: @cmsholdings probably nothing
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1441486521673023490
Date: 2021-09-24 19:35:42 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1441486333009035266)
Body: @cmsintern fuck
Stats: 36 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1441483733144522755
Date: 2021-09-24 19:24:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1441483618325438465)
Body: NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
Stats: 156 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1441483618325438465
Date: 2021-09-24 19:24:10 GMT
Quoted tweet: @DeItaone: Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Grimes break up after three years together: NYP
Body: A thread about why THIS caused today's sell-off and not China. https://t.co/6pjfTzEfRY
Stats: 653 likes, 29 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 30 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1441211578833989640
Date: 2021-09-24 01:23:11 GMT
Quoted tweet: @philivey: Look forward to seeing all of you on Sunday at the Table! @MrBeast @ethereumJoseph Vince Vaughn @paulpierce34 @sandeepnailwal @justinsuntron @elliotrades @iamnickrose @cryptomanran @wolfcryptogroup @AlamedaTrabucco @TheBinanceNFT https://t.co/ZvsOW9lwny
Body: I'm a celebrity now🤡
Should be a fun time! https://t.co/K2xNY51mxH
Stats: 153 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 21 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1440529934808608770
Date: 2021-09-22 04:14:34 GMT
Replying to: @fatoverloadin (Tweet ID: 1440527763446788104)
Body: @kingthekumar @lsv That's one of the strangest opinions I have ever heard.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1440527463969296392
Date: 2021-09-22 04:04:45 GMT
Replying to: @fatoverloadin (Tweet ID: 1440527141200748547)
Body: @kingthekumar @lsv Wow is this Drake and Josh, what a deep cut
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1440523444651638789
Date: 2021-09-22 03:48:47 GMT
Body: I know everyone wants me to talk about the crypto market but I've been busy sorry.
(My rank isn't higher because I don't force UB often enough, my bad @lsv) https://t.co/AY9HcA2Vbe
Stats: 280 likes, 4 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 49 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1440440899268333571
Date: 2021-09-21 22:20:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1440440849536483329)
Body: @cmsholdings NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
Stats: 35 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1440440849536483329
Date: 2021-09-21 22:20:35 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1440439255155679237)
Body: @cmsholdings NGL I miss $1 = 1bp
Stats: 47 likes, 1 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1440222896819826689
Date: 2021-09-21 07:54:31 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: I thought we got Evergrande out of that canal months ago
Body: For more content like this please follow @tonyresearch https://t.co/xcgiKuaGf1
Stats: 73 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1440138694292226054
Date: 2021-09-21 02:19:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1440138287176290305)
Body: @theemilyaccount Harry become an auror? Why isn’t he just rich forever?
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1440138287176290305
Date: 2021-09-21 02:18:18 GMT
Replying to: @theemilyaccount (Tweet ID: 1439986683458490368)
Body: @theemilyaccount Everyone’s mad at the epilogue for the wrong reasons IMO, I’m mad because any of those people got a normal job
Stats: 12 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1440132542129074180
Date: 2021-09-21 01:55:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1440132259894288384)
Body: @CryptoCred @udiWertheimer Needs gifs tho
Stats: 48 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1440132259894288384
Date: 2021-09-21 01:54:21 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoCred (Tweet ID: 1440130903653617667)
Body: @CryptoCred @udiWertheimer OK this is pretty close to what I would write if I weren't exhausted except for the end, I always end on some platitude about what I learned not with PNL claims.
Stats: 260 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1440121764848148480
Date: 2021-09-21 01:12:39 GMT
Body: I thought we got Evergrande out of that canal months ago
Stats: 3169 likes, 215 retweets, 32 quote tweets, 103 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1439954518347632640
Date: 2021-09-20 14:08:04 GMT
Quoted tweet: @yamashi0784: 入札していただいて感謝。
24時間切っているものもありますのでコアなファンの方がいらっしゃれば是非よろしくおねがいします。
https://t.co/cS02UcDvp4
#NFT #nftcollector #solpunks #FTX #FTXpunks #alameda
@SBF_FTX @FTX_Official @AlamedaTrabucco https://t.co/UX1YdsrUHk
Body: Why aren't more people making NFTs of me? https://t.co/2kAikgHbez
Stats: 144 likes, 5 retweets, 8 quote tweets, 55 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1438349916477091844
Date: 2021-09-16 03:51:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1438349684343410689)
Body: @camelcharlie And nothing is ever guaranteed, and as usual "not investment advice." But if you run a study to check how good that trade was on average over the past year, it would tell you "pretty good"
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1438349684343410689
Date: 2021-09-16 03:51:02 GMT
Replying to: @king__kendrick (Tweet ID: 1438325342511538176)
Body: @camelcharlie I don't exactly follow this but note that I specifically meant "buy the 10% dip in the 30 seconds after a ton of liquidations happened"
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1437613482061352965
Date: 2021-09-14 03:05:38 GMT
Replying to: @theemilyaccount (Tweet ID: 1437609906287386624)
Body: @theemilyaccount TBH id automate all of this except the thing where 2% of the time the pitcher throws it to 1st with a runner on to keep him honest
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1437610515585396746
Date: 2021-09-14 02:53:51 GMT
Replying to: @adamf1111 (Tweet ID: 1437610015372742657)
Body: @adamf1111 awesome
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1437603206427594758
Date: 2021-09-14 02:24:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1437603048772096002)
Body: Neither financial advice nor baseball advice!!!
Stats: 52 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1437603048772096002
Date: 2021-09-14 02:24:10 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1437602613726363649)
Body: ZERO indication that Solana is the future or finance in this stadium
Stats: 163 likes, 7 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1437602613726363649
Date: 2021-09-14 02:22:27 GMT
Body: Feeling alienated @ Oracle Park, hardly any of the billboards are about crypto
Stats: 124 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 16 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1436485361073410048
Date: 2021-09-11 00:22:53 GMT
Replying to: @lsv (Tweet ID: 1436484931429883908)
Body: @lsv @FTX_Official @Marshall_LR It’s been my motivation for going to my desktop (ostensibly exists only for work) more times than I should admit.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1436484235959832582
Date: 2021-09-11 00:18:25 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1436474582677004290)
Body: @FTX_Official @Marshall_LR @lsv Also can you please buy Storybook Brawl?
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1436481808590196739
Date: 2021-09-11 00:08:46 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1436474343966625794)
Body: @FTX_Official TBH they're pretty iconic.
Stats: 28 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1436441918116806660
Date: 2021-09-10 21:30:15 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1436441612666773523)
Body: @austerity_sucks @gutsareon @IE_Capital I often abstract liquidation behavior away as market orders because they’re generally all either market orders or quite aggressive limit orders which step down every few seconds in the rare event they’re not insta-filled
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1436414033679110146
Date: 2021-09-10 19:39:27 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1436406648675917824)
Body: @austerity_sucks @gutsareon @IE_Capital That's correct, also note that FTX liquidations aren't even a good signal for anything because there are so few of them -- the exchanges with a lot of liquidations are all that matter.
Stats: 14 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1436128933821366278
Date: 2021-09-10 00:46:34 GMT
Replying to: @mattysino (Tweet ID: 1436028103155851297)
Body: @mattysino I’d listen to this podcast
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435718965863469058
Date: 2021-09-08 21:37:30 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1435688335863947267)
Body: @cmsholdings Looks rare.
Stats: 26 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423626983972865
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423620256260096)
Body: And the biggest takeaway for me was just how familiar today's move still feels -- it's been a few months, but it was really just the same thing with a slightly different spin.
History repeats again, and I've got a feeling we've not seen the last of it. https://t.co/L7z5kCDUPY
Stats: 910 likes, 33 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 51 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423620256260096
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423618716954626)
Body: There was other stuff like this -- quarterlies were way out of line with each other, spot exchanges had arbs, USDT got to like 20bp over $1 setting up a big arb opportunity there. Big moves always have big dislocations because platforms are so segregated.
Stats: 280 likes, 6 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423618716954626
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423616082976769)
Body: Different products also got super out of line earlier. Perps, which have mostly been at huge premia lately, got to giant discounts, and closing short perp / long spot spreads that have been quite good for weeks was an AWESOME trade for hours. https://t.co/0MUBMCkT5A
Stats: 257 likes, 6 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423616082976769
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423614514319360)
Body: (Reason, as usual, being that no one actually wanted to sell down to $42k in this case -- longs got liquidated down to that level, but they were forced to sell.)
Stats: 329 likes, 10 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423614514319360
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423611607662592)
Body: If you *are* expecting it, the best move is to sell beforehand (we weren't so we couldn't). Barring that, though, there's still plenty you can do -- the best and most predictably great thing is to buy the HUGE dip -- buying right here has just never not been awesome. https://t.co/8suSJmWWdH
Stats: 451 likes, 30 retweets, 7 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423611607662592
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423609766354947)
Body: Also, there's a very real chance that when you're at a local max (like we were yesterday -- it had been a while since >$50k by more than a bit!), the chance for old *shorts* getting liquidated makes *buying* the +EV side. So I didn't think a crash like today's was *too* likely.
Stats: 292 likes, 11 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423609766354947
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423603000963073)
Body: And honestly? I was caught a *bit* off-guard this time. I didn't think the rally had lasted long enough, and in particular I didn't think the initial draw-down was significant enough (yet) vs. the peak to cause a lot of liquidations. https://t.co/wqI6Wzl1Qo
Stats: 339 likes, 9 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423603000963073
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423599691636740)
Body: ... until it wasn't slow anymore. Liquidations of course took over on the quick descent, like they always do -- as we said, just like clockwork.
Billions got liquidated earlier! https://t.co/e2zv5uNcR0
Stats: 314 likes, 7 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423599691636740
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423597212758019)
Body: And last night, number started going down. Not sure why -- probably something like "someone sold" or "BTC = $50k?" and then during Eastern morning the stock market was also falling, and crypto sometimes follows those things.
Regardless, the market started to slowly fall ... https://t.co/dvTCjG888o
Stats: 260 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423597212758019
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423595539275778)
Body: The past week looked a lot like this!
- high premia, all across the board
- OIs of big perps (especially Binance) growing quickly
- all while the market rallies
Stats: 342 likes, 14 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423595539275778
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423589277179909)
Body: And as prices crashed, some of those aggressive net buyers who bought near the top get liquidated, and then more of them get liquidated, and then -- well, you know, BTC crashed an extra 10% over the course of a few minutes.
Like clockwork. https://t.co/L5RhhDeMEs
Stats: 367 likes, 15 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423589277179909
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423587180052480)
Body: Each time it's happened, it's been for a different reason -- maybe bad news from China, maybe bad news from Elon, maybe nothing that's easy to point to. But in each case, it happened -- and it was slow at first.
Stats: 292 likes, 8 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423587180052480
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423580372627460)
Body: And "number go up" important sets up the opportunity for people to buy at "high" prices -- this matters because of the next stage of the set-up:
- number go down https://t.co/eOtxu9SkZl
Stats: 396 likes, 7 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423580372627460
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423577889595392)
Body: The set-up is the same every time:
- futures are at really high premia -> this suggests aggressive buying
- OIs going up -> this suggests the buyers are opening positions
- number go up -> this means there's *net* buying
Stats: 736 likes, 87 retweets, 7 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423577889595392
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423574450339841)
Body: And what about May? When crypto had recovered some to $50k or so -- again with high premia and OI -- but then it dipped a bit?
Right. https://t.co/tTyURbAWAt
Stats: 283 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423574450339841
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435423571531108355)
Body: They say that those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
Who remembers what earlier this year? When crypto rallied a ton to $65k pretty quickly, futures were at high premia, and open interest of all the important contracts was up?
Here it is: https://t.co/sS5nprASu7
Stats: 371 likes, 14 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435423571531108355
Date: 2021-09-08 02:03:42 GMT
Body: Today was the first time I've been woken up because the market was moving in a while -- it's the biggest move we've seen in months! What happened?
A thread about history. https://t.co/o0ojE0kVLJ
Stats: 4238 likes, 916 retweets, 133 quote tweets, 195 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435403248056238082
Date: 2021-09-08 00:42:57 GMT
Replying to: @AWice (Tweet ID: 1435402432171823104)
Body: @AWice ty
Stats: 45 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435401783120056322
Date: 2021-09-08 00:37:08 GMT
Replying to: @AWice (Tweet ID: 1435386795143745538)
Body: @AWice I took a nap instead of finishing this, working on it now.
Stats: 201 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435354868898697219
Date: 2021-09-07 21:30:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435354302466314244)
Body: @delphiintern Exception being that taking 7.012 senior year had a gravely negative impact on my life.
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435354302466314244
Date: 2021-09-07 21:28:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435353550406647810)
Body: @delphiintern I don't think any classes I took had a lasting impact on my life, but various student groups I was in definitely did -- that's pretty common, I think.
Also at MIT specifically making sure you live somewhere you like is really important, social life revolves around that.
Stats: 34 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435353550406647810
Date: 2021-09-07 21:25:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435353312069517314)
Body: @delphiintern Networking is also likely the biggest draw of a place like MIT, which I think people are becoming more aware of over time but it's easy to lose track of it -- it's also more fun to focus on that since it tends to coincide with "making friends / partying" etc.
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435353312069517314
Date: 2021-09-07 21:24:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435353167785455619)
Body: @delphiintern Domain knowledge is easy to pick up -- developing skills like coding, quantitative thinking, etc. which are broadly useful is more important.
Stats: 53 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435353167785455619
Date: 2021-09-07 21:23:57 GMT
Replying to: @delphiintern (Tweet ID: 1435350096233877505)
Body: @delphiintern For real though: undergrads tend to over-estimate the probability that they understand their post-grad plans to a specific degree. Optimizing for something really specific is therefore generally a mistake, which I didn't realize at the time.
Stats: 75 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435352252760264705
Date: 2021-09-07 21:20:19 GMT
Replying to: @delphiintern (Tweet ID: 1435351923754995712)
Body: @delphiintern In my day they were stuffing people into 10-250 for this, I guess COVID has changed everything.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435350992829042688
Date: 2021-09-07 21:15:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1435350520936349698)
Body: @delphiintern Also never eat at Anna's it's at best begrudgingly edible, most over-rated food I've ever encountered.
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435350520936349698
Date: 2021-09-07 21:13:26 GMT
Replying to: @delphiintern (Tweet ID: 1435350096233877505)
Body: @delphiintern Don't leave 7.012 until senior year.
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435336999704010754
Date: 2021-09-07 20:19:42 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1435192652815867905)
Body: @cmsholdings sir
Stats: 258 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 14 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435291115196862468
Date: 2021-09-07 17:17:22 GMT
Body: TBH I'm so happy that I get to think about coins instead of pictures today.
Stats: 1061 likes, 25 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 48 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1435112653928554496
Date: 2021-09-07 05:28:14 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1434967371903553537)
Body: @cmsholdings I'll go in on this with you, it's the only way I'll ever make my dad proud
Stats: 66 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1434987344642260992
Date: 2021-09-06 21:10:18 GMT
Replying to: @tonyresearch (Tweet ID: 1434987002391265280)
Body: @tonyresearch Tony
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1434975489253281798
Date: 2021-09-06 20:23:11 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1434975446534266880)
Body: ^$100M idea honestly
Stats: 70 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1434975446534266880
Date: 2021-09-06 20:23:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1434975405203595264)
Body: SolSoles
Stats: 80 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 14 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1434783764681347073
Date: 2021-09-06 07:41:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1434783578055864320)
Body: Ooh can I donate degen apes to the FTX foundation? How will they be marked?
Stats: 64 likes, 7 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 13 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1434783578055864320
Date: 2021-09-06 07:40:36 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: 1/1 "test" NFT by artist SBF currently has 23 hours left.
https://t.co/R35DbNBEQa https://t.co/R6jwvKndea
Body: I wanna donate this to the FTX Foundation. https://t.co/o7QKyzlcuk
Stats: 148 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 13 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1434445384454004743
Date: 2021-09-05 09:16:45 GMT
Replying to: @Atreus_Fi (Tweet ID: 1434442083893342208)
Body: @Atreus_Fi @SBF_Alameda Fair is floor(log_2(1B)) or something
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1434437600564047879
Date: 2021-09-05 08:45:49 GMT
Replying to: @Atreus_Fi (Tweet ID: 1434419363700903937)
Body: @Atreus_Fi @SBF_Alameda Well the reason it's absurd is because there is only a finite amount of $ in the world, and a much smaller finite amount that a counterparty can reasonably pay you. So the EV in fact is not uncapped and the reason the fair price is a finite number has 0 to do with ignoring EV.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1433838560147243012
Date: 2021-09-03 17:05:26 GMT
Quoted tweet: @compass_mining: Tomorrow we're talking all about mining news and data and what it's useful for.
Guests:
@karimhelpme
@alamedatrabucco
@joshua_frank_
📺 Twitch: https://t.co/H6pOcyGcRI
📺 YouTube: https://t.co/xUFB0G6LlO https://t.co/sSym2OFBeJ
Body: This is happening now! https://t.co/Bexg0izclI
Stats: 61 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1433613926864883727
Date: 2021-09-03 02:12:50 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: Spending $30B now to be prepared
vs
Losing $3T in economic activity and restricting freedom later
https://t.co/Ut4ld95Xmx
Body: Using lower leverage and making a little less $ most of the time
vs
Getting your giant position liquidated on a 20% move https://t.co/YJW888g9zf
Stats: 306 likes, 11 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 23 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1433588343548243969
Date: 2021-09-03 00:31:10 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 1) Really excited to have @rsalame7926 as CEO of FTX: Bahamas!
https://t.co/NWs8G7woRu
Body: I've always joked around with @rsalame7926 on here but that's because in reality I like and respect him so much. I've missed working with him at Alameda but what he's doing now is important and exciting!
P.S. buy a boat and let me use it. https://t.co/WsDM5uTcIV
Stats: 76 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1433510650374852613
Date: 2021-09-02 19:22:27 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1433509646267035651)
Body: @cmsintern @UpOnlyTV sir what was the deleted tweet
Stats: 14 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1433323256841261059
Date: 2021-09-02 06:57:48 GMT
Replying to: @Kasperbit (Tweet ID: 1433322941115162630)
Body: @Kasperbit Man I keep forgetting about them and then I have to re-remember them all over again
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1433198169416892416
Date: 2021-09-01 22:40:45 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1433193964308422656)
Body: @cmsholdings Turns out beaches have wifi these days
Stats: 47 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1433160331220566024
Date: 2021-09-01 20:10:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1433160304746131461)
Body: @FTX_Official
Stats: 33 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1433129315860828164
Date: 2021-09-01 18:07:09 GMT
Replying to: @duckdarryl (Tweet ID: 1433129176224043011)
Body: @duckdarryl @George_harrap Oh I mean sure good point
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1433129090882564098
Date: 2021-09-01 18:06:16 GMT
Replying to: @George_harrap (Tweet ID: 1433128731279872004)
Body: @George_harrap I think I tweeted something like that at $25 or so
Stats: 66 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1433127990632738818
Date: 2021-09-01 18:01:53 GMT
Body: Fuck does this mean no more buying under $50? https://t.co/0rfqELubeL
Stats: 693 likes, 23 retweets, 13 quote tweets, 59 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432874211236728834
Date: 2021-09-01 01:13:28 GMT
Replying to: @BeardedKsum (Tweet ID: 1432873278444609542)
Body: @BeardedKsum @CryptoCobain @UpOnlyTV (to be clear I have never charged an appearance fee to anyone :P)
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432873032498831363
Date: 2021-09-01 01:08:47 GMT
Replying to: @cobie (Tweet ID: 1432867634501099522)
Body: @CryptoCobain @UpOnlyTV I've yet to charge you my typical appearance fee, consider yourselves lucky
Stats: 161 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432865849681977353
Date: 2021-09-01 00:40:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816478902886400)
Body: Also the episode of @UpOnlyTV contributed a decent amount to my desire to look into this, thanks guys!
Stats: 201 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432838815522037762
Date: 2021-08-31 22:52:49 GMT
Replying to: @rulerofbronze5 (Tweet ID: 1432838391511412737)
Body: @rulerofbronze5 Isn't that from "Friends"
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432819502945746945
Date: 2021-08-31 21:36:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816546334658565)
Body: Please note this is not an invitation to DM me with NFT suggestions!!!!!!!
Stats: 226 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 40 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432816546334658565
Date: 2021-08-31 21:24:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816538776600584)
Body: Taking a flyer on new trends is probably just right a lot more than I give it credit for being true. After all, that's exactly what my decision to pivot to crypto was.
I'll be on the lookout for more spots like this moving forward -- nothing like a cheap lottery ticket. https://t.co/uJYFNOzkvC
Stats: 215 likes, 6 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432816538776600584
Date: 2021-08-31 21:24:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816531197489161)
Body: A big lesson for us (especially for me) is not to trust my instincts about things I've learned I'm sort of naturally biased against. I ignored a lot of signs that NFTs would blow up, and lost out on a lot of initial upside.
(I'll never ignore @ParisHilton again) https://t.co/SZ2SGbWIyF
Stats: 301 likes, 18 retweets, 7 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432816531197489161
Date: 2021-08-31 21:24:16 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816529586868224)
Body: We'll be trying very hard to predict whether this momentum will keep up and, if so, to follow it where it goes -- it's exciting to be living through what could end up being a huge paradigm shift for the media landscape, in any case.
Stats: 140 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432816529586868224
Date: 2021-08-31 21:24:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816527762345984)
Body: Will this be true going forward? Genuinely not sure. I thought yield farming would be more faddish than it ended up being, and I've learned to update against trusting my instincts on these things.
Stats: 126 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432816527762345984
Date: 2021-08-31 21:24:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816525983944705)
Body: (You can of course do better by, like, having your nose the ground and knowing which are the most popular, or having good instinct -- I am operating from the perspective of someone who "doesn't get" all that, though I do like a lot of the art!)
Stats: 120 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432816525983944705
Date: 2021-08-31 21:24:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816517482090500)
Body: ... and some have definitely flopped. But the average one has just done CRAZY well, because a few have gone to the moon. That means if you don't know which are good? You should just buy 'em all, and each of those trades would have been good. https://t.co/SvdHvK8p0A
Stats: 140 likes, 5 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432816515762376707
Date: 2021-08-31 21:24:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816513598177284)
Body: Am I especially good at recognizing which project will be the biggest, or which ultra-rare Ape attribute is gonna be the most valued a priori? Not really.
But it turns out, at least lately, NFT projects have just been January 2021-era DOGE again:
Stats: 150 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432816513598177284
Date: 2021-08-31 21:24:11 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816501359185923)
Body: When NFTs started getting big, I will admit: I scoffed. "So they're just like, pictures? Why should I care? Even if there's $, how would I have any advantage?"
But man -- this opportunity has turned out to be BIG. https://t.co/mT2eRXLkTn
Stats: 177 likes, 10 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432816501359185923
Date: 2021-08-31 21:24:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816499857575937)
Body: Recognizing spots where the investment is good is critical:
- the election trading just required a few days of modeling to transform it into something v. similar to our usual trading
- DeFi was a lot of work, but the opportunity was HUGE -- and it's still going on / paying off
Stats: 140 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432816499857575937
Date: 2021-08-31 21:24:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816497903091714)
Body: It's easy to scoff at something like that. "There's $ there, but we don't really have edge in it, shouldn't we just focus on what we're good at?"
And often that logic is right! The initial investment in getting good might be too high, maybe we're really NOT suited for it, etc.
Stats: 124 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432816497903091714
Date: 2021-08-31 21:24:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816490261090312)
Body: Each of those things represented an opportunity which:
- could make us a lot of $
- could leverage our skills and resources, albeit in a new way
- required us to spend time not focusing on our bread and butter https://t.co/4xXNbudqsW
Stats: 115 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432816490261090312
Date: 2021-08-31 21:24:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816482782613508)
Body: Occasionally, a big opportunity pops up which is nothing like that, though. A few examples:
- 2020 election trading (relevant because it was on some crypto exchanges)
- DeFi becoming huge https://t.co/UGGJmGeWBF
Stats: 134 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432816482782613508
Date: 2021-08-31 21:24:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816481104842755)
Body: "Crypto" is not monolithic, of course. Our edge has historically come from a few places -- having infrastructure in place to execute short-timescale arbs and spreads and having good intuition about market structure -> make good delta bets have been two of the bigger sources.
Stats: 164 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432816481104842755
Date: 2021-08-31 21:24:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1432816478902886400)
Body: I've talked before about how Alameda really only has one goal: make money trading. We trade crypto because we have edge doing so and believe it to be the best use of our resources, but if e.g. sports betting became big enough we'd probably focus 1/3 of our time on it or whatever.
Stats: 222 likes, 3 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432734068928442371
Date: 2021-08-31 15:56:35 GMT
Quoted tweet: @Blockworks_: Investors wanting to increase their capital allocation efficiency should watch this webinar.
Speakers:
- @AlamedaTrabucco from Alameda Research
- @_asenkostadinov from Copper
By @CopperHQ
https://t.co/RnqLl1o2aj
Body: Will be live momentarily! https://t.co/KZR9HUyrhu
Stats: 44 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432520532251926532
Date: 2021-08-31 01:48:04 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1432515926348402691)
Body: @cmsholdings sir my understanding is jpegs are all that matters right now
Stats: 156 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432467297348714500
Date: 2021-08-30 22:16:32 GMT
Body: Fine. https://t.co/x0GAwgXHja
Stats: 1318 likes, 105 retweets, 40 quote tweets, 169 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432462756851040261
Date: 2021-08-30 21:58:29 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1432462517725507588)
Body: @cmsintern @alamedaintern sir
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1432461935593754624
Date: 2021-08-30 21:55:13 GMT
Replying to: @alamedaintern (Tweet ID: 1432449957987037194)
Body: @alamedaintern @cmsintern ^ is this an NFT
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1431874364589297664
Date: 2021-08-29 07:00:26 GMT
Replying to: @bitcoin4bernie (Tweet ID: 1431855935522172935)
Body: @bitcoin4bernie @CryptoJeffS HK has quarantine for vaccinated eg, many advocate for this policy more broadly
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1431845219926884356
Date: 2021-08-29 05:04:37 GMT
Body: “Even with vaccines we should quarantine” people give me ETH maxi vibes
Stats: 697 likes, 31 retweets, 8 quote tweets, 64 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1431813714093641740
Date: 2021-08-29 02:59:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1431812904257343492)
Body: The reality is people doing this are risk-averse, which is not a trait that suits you well when managing a lot of $ trying to maximize it, in my experience.
(I used to be really risk-averse FWIW; I started doing a lot better in trading and in life when I stopped)
Stats: 76 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1431812904257343492
Date: 2021-08-29 02:56:12 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsholdings: I would almost universally say not start a fund or more specifically don’t take external capital. Sell a small chunk of equity in a Corp if you must or just grind a super tiny base up. It’s bonkers to me@people give 80% of the upside away in this industry and pick up compliance https://t.co/Q4RLeZcvkg
Body: 100%. I increasingly think things like:
- the best funds mostly are incentivized to not give 80% of profit away in exchange for 2% guarantee (guaranteed* yield in this business is, uh, higher)
- the rest ... well, they might be, but what does that say about their expected profit? https://t.co/zu96FCd4tE
Stats: 106 likes, 10 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1431709564760576003
Date: 2021-08-28 20:05:34 GMT
Replying to: @choffstein (Tweet ID: 1431706550595371013)
Body: @choffstein Everyone talks about this tweet bur my fav in the thread is the one where the other guy is like "you want me to use an EXCHANGE to make a BET????"
Stats: 49 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1431367908337205249
Date: 2021-08-27 21:27:57 GMT
Replying to: @Chubbicorn230 (Tweet ID: 1431367671921012736)
Body: @BanhbaoCrypto Literal MTG on the blockchain I could get behind :P
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1431367794189213698
Date: 2021-08-27 21:27:30 GMT
Replying to: @0xRacer (Tweet ID: 1431367482883837959)
Body: @0xRacer I mostly draft these days but yeah dimir/esper/etc. control is my style bias to the extent I have one.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1431366810796838916
Date: 2021-08-27 21:23:35 GMT
Quoted tweet: @nlw: Salute @AlamedaTrabucco 🤝 https://t.co/BGM0R5DIZL
Body: No offense to all the people shilling me blockchain-based Magic-like games but MTG is IMO the best-designed game ever and the reason I like it is not just “card game” https://t.co/aeLVFCq2ep
Stats: 268 likes, 4 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 48 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1431017808532447234
Date: 2021-08-26 22:16:47 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsintern: Intern notes on today’s @UpOnlyTV with Sam Trabucco (Alameda Reasearch co-CEO) on:
- How Sam thinks through trades 🧠
- The NFT craze 👾
- How anyone can find +EV 🚀
And statistically more!
@CryptoCobain <> @ledgerstatus <> @AlamedaTrabucco https://t.co/NIQMZRXhTE
Body: For the record this isn't the kind of intern I meant when I said we don't really hire people for temporary internships https://t.co/7Hibt4UFIz
Stats: 225 likes, 7 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 17 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1430984988409819137
Date: 2021-08-26 20:06:22 GMT
Quoted tweet: @ledgerstatus: Going live with @AlamedaTrabucco as soon as @CryptoCobain shows up.
https://t.co/evm59gmgsI
Body: Cobie asked me to do this this and then arrived late!
(going live momentarily) https://t.co/ckGVu63QDL
Stats: 144 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1430984824051814401
Date: 2021-08-26 20:05:43 GMT
Replying to: @ftx_app (Tweet ID: 1430896507570442253)
Body: @ftx_app Bitcoin : banking :: football : cavemen attacking each other for meat
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1430960338376167426
Date: 2021-08-26 18:28:25 GMT
Quoted tweet: @UpOnlyTV: Up Only today will be an hour later than usual because Ledger has a pedicure appointment that he can't move at usual time
Our guest today is @AlamedaTrabucco
See you in a bit
Body: Pedicures as NFTs, someone run with this https://t.co/xjkYzgxiEP
Stats: 119 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1430702146341666822
Date: 2021-08-26 01:22:27 GMT
Replying to: @stockmart_ (Tweet ID: 1430699797799911425)
Body: @stockmart_ @backbooked Any time.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1430698883500232704
Date: 2021-08-26 01:09:29 GMT
Replying to: @backbooked (Tweet ID: 1430698480356429824)
Body: @backbooked ETH's gas fees are the overpriced food.
Stats: 54 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428777383348236288
Date: 2021-08-20 17:54:08 GMT
Quoted tweet: @scottmelker: Are you bullish on Bitcoin?
I have two guests who are going to discuss the asset and market today at 2PM EST - @ToneVays and @AlamedaTrabucco.
I think you're going to want to tune in in 20 minutes to this one.
https://t.co/BbynmjTuSd
Body: I'll be on with @scottmelker in a few minutes! https://t.co/GB9ltPLLUX
Stats: 119 likes, 5 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 39 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428606300611506177
Date: 2021-08-20 06:34:18 GMT
Replying to: @Atreus_Fi (Tweet ID: 1428588076016697348)
Body: @Atreus_Fi You left 100% off
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428512119020933126
Date: 2021-08-20 00:20:04 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1428511826434826240)
Body: @cmsintern @cmsholdings @PARADIGMintern @mevintern @redhookandbook @hudsonjameson Wait did you spawn an entire genre of CT parody accounts.
👏
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428511786060324866
Date: 2021-08-20 00:18:44 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1428511432157581313)
Body: @cmsintern @sinointern Mostly games -- poker, Magic, etc., anything is fine so long as it's probabilistic and involves making a bunch of decisions.
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428463431300960257
Date: 2021-08-19 21:06:36 GMT
Replying to: @KemonomichiNL (Tweet ID: 1428462837710479361)
Body: @KemonomichiNL This should be on the blockchain
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428462697201291269
Date: 2021-08-19 21:03:41 GMT
Replying to: @MikeMcDonald89 (Tweet ID: 1428462383169683463)
Body: @MikeMcDonald89 I've heard of payment for order flow but this is ridiculous
Stats: 48 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428461631684562948
Date: 2021-08-19 20:59:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1428461024504545284)
Body: I'd really like to just post up outside the "Deal or No Deal" studio and tell contestants I'm willing to outbid the banker.
Stats: 198 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 13 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428461024504545284
Date: 2021-08-19 20:57:02 GMT
Quoted tweet: @MrBeast: Would you rather have $10,000 guaranteed or a coin flip chance of $100,000?
Body: If anyone ever faces this choice I will pay you $20k for your winnings from the coin flip. https://t.co/M2PPuJPNXW
Stats: 588 likes, 18 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 93 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428449480047693826
Date: 2021-08-19 20:11:10 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1428443566586671107)
Body: @cmsholdings Looks liquidation-driven
Stats: 102 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428442101964886020
Date: 2021-08-19 19:41:50 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1428441885727670279)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/2mqjNNcLCT
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428441788075757568
Date: 2021-08-19 19:40:36 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1428437959221600258)
Body: @cmsholdings dan no
Stats: 53 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428441486618632200
Date: 2021-08-19 19:39:24 GMT
Body: Fiat doesn't buy happiness.
Stats: 552 likes, 44 retweets, 11 quote tweets, 76 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428436666558029827
Date: 2021-08-19 19:20:15 GMT
Replying to: @mattysino (Tweet ID: 1428395399606243329)
Body: @mattysino ++
Maintaining a (super profitable) character for like 20 years so convincingly that people refuse to believe she could have a good idea is astounding.
Stats: 55 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428177819222245378
Date: 2021-08-19 02:11:41 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1428176842293399565)
Body: @cmsholdings @imBagsy @rsalame7926 Makes you think
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1428176680397406209
Date: 2021-08-19 02:07:09 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1428173548280029188)
Body: @cmsholdings @imBagsy @rsalame7926 He can’t even be trusted with a coffee order
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1427786735136612352
Date: 2021-08-18 00:17:39 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: Live now!
https://t.co/z9wXLO98lX https://t.co/4tj8lurjI7
Body: Did Sam just get nerd-sniped explaining what "nerd sniping" is https://t.co/qweVXFs2oD
Stats: 100 likes, 9 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1427718172388458497
Date: 2021-08-17 19:45:12 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1427705566512787464)
Body: @cmsholdings I can't explain this but Benjamin Franklin was a SOL maxi.
Stats: 232 likes, 12 retweets, 7 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1427471961429463041
Date: 2021-08-17 03:26:51 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Look at these two images -- one is my comment on Slack at 4:05am (Asia time), and one is BTC's price graph at 4:06am. Am I the best trader in the world?
A thread about decisions and results. https://t.co/lXPvE9ERm5
Body: On the other hand, sometimes 4 is a big enough sample size. https://t.co/lELG1DBrzT
Stats: 74 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1427446306184650753
Date: 2021-08-17 01:44:54 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1427443638762708992)
Body: @cmsholdings Same but about weed
Stats: 67 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1427353717091684372
Date: 2021-08-16 19:36:59 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1427319916160507914)
Body: @cmsholdings fuck
Stats: 149 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1427146051840987138
Date: 2021-08-16 05:51:48 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1427145658448838656)
Body: @FTX_Official @glenbartlett no
Stats: 45 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1427030851645153280
Date: 2021-08-15 22:14:02 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1427030282117554179)
Body: @cmsintern @alamedaintern The prof pic photoshop work is also stronger than I'm capable of.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1427026897725124608
Date: 2021-08-15 21:58:19 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1427025759286214657)
Body: @cmsintern @alamedaintern Your claim is maybe this is the best use of my time I could come up with?
Stats: 23 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426961895836114946
Date: 2021-08-15 17:40:02 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1426917895376883748)
Body: @cmsholdings @rsalame7926
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426659693334695939
Date: 2021-08-14 21:39:11 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1426655751938969603)
Body: @cmsintern @cmsholdings SIR
Stats: 43 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426646633438060544
Date: 2021-08-14 20:47:17 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1426646501636386816)
Body: @cmsholdings sir
Stats: 98 likes, 1 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426631466771902466
Date: 2021-08-14 19:47:01 GMT
Quoted tweet: @KenzieSigalos: In 2014, @JeremyRubin gave $100 of free #bitcoin to every MIT undergrad who wanted it, back when $BTC was ~$336.
Had everyone kept it, they'd collectively be $44.1 million richer today.
Here's what actually happened: https://t.co/t3xaR9rTDU @AlamedaTrabucco @ccatalini
Body: @JeremyRubin you should have made me buy more BTC in 2014 https://t.co/sVj4f8f81p
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426339429963075584
Date: 2021-08-14 00:26:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338674732503044)
Body: To be clear, the answer was "no" to my initial question, also in this case we didn't really buy anything before the spike because I thought of it too late :(
Stats: 124 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 23 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338674732503044
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338662862573570)
Body: I recommend thinking hard about whether you're updating too hard in response to your own wins and losses -- getting better at this was a huge key for me to improving at trading, which is about making thousands of good calls, not just one. https://t.co/cBYJennhQD
Stats: 83 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338662862573570
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338661096845312)
Body: So I basically never update about someone's skill because they did one thing right -- or about my own! It's the same reason crypto exchange leaderboards don't tell you much, and people who just post delta calls are rarely worth listening to without running lots of analysis.
Stats: 60 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338661096845312
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338653257666560)
Body: ... if they just got lucky on a coin flip, or if they've been 60-40 on all the coin flips they've EVER called because they've got some edge.
(Note: I am often personally given WAY too much credit for calls I've made :P) https://t.co/wJpLRsYxsw
Stats: 47 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338653257666560
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338651504451584)
Body: But one correct delta call -- or even, like, 4 correct delta calls -- isn't enough to label someone a strong trader. People on Twitter are very quick to call out traders who made well-timed predictions -- but if you're not tracking EVERY decision they've made, you don't know ...
Stats: 73 likes, 7 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338651504451584
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338643027718144)
Body: Note that this is hard to balance vs. the times when it IS important to update -- this is where Bayesian statistics come in. In general, I'm talking about single decisions where one result mostly isn't enough to update priors strongly -- different ballgame if priors are weak. https://t.co/MXrZyBp8kk
Stats: 54 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338643027718144
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338641165524996)
Body: When trading, I try to totally divorce myself from results. If someone asks for feedback on a decision, I try to not even ask how it went, and I work really hard not to over-update my own future behavior based on one trade of mine going especially well or badly vs. expectation.
Stats: 100 likes, 6 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338641165524996
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338633808695298)
Body: Every time someone has folded a hand and asked to see the river "so they know," or sworn off of drinking tequila because of one bad night when they drank too much -- they've acted in a results-oriented way instead of a statistically sound one. https://t.co/ZWWZaxblil
Stats: 55 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338633808695298
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338632407732224)
Body: You see people assess decisions all the time which are based more on results than anything. And that's natural! When evaluating a tough decision, often the results are the only "hard info" many people have in practice (since math about interception % isn't practical).
Stats: 47 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338632407732224
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338630658781189)
Body: (Some more detailed analysis which doesn't gloss over the details that I did can be found here: https://t.co/vYa8R9o09C)
Stats: 36 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338630658781189
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338623079682049)
Body: I'm glossing over some details, but the REAL decision here was basically a trade-off between giving the Patriots time to score (a 5% or so event pending how long it was) vs. the % of an interception (1-2% or so per attempt) ... doesn't look so bad after all. https://t.co/iUCe4NkLq6
Stats: 35 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338623079682049
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338621347405824)
Body: It was 2nd down, and ideally they'd run the clock down as much as possible before scoring -- the Patriots had some chance to come back if they didn't. 3 running plays wouldn't fit into 26 seconds -- but a pass and 2 running plays (or 2 passes + a running play) could.
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338621347405824
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338614053462017)
Body: The pass got intercepted and the Seahawks lost the game -- fans immediately started calling the decision crazy, Pete Carroll the worst coach in NFL history.
But ... it's obviously not that simple. https://t.co/10HKBtCpS1
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338611528560641
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338599465754624)
Body: Look at this list of the worst coaching decisions ever made in the NFL: https://t.co/zbyGH6ZlHN
In particular, look at #2 on the list -- it's Pete Carroll's (in)famous call during Superbowl XLIX. https://t.co/e4r3BKYPVT
Stats: 29 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338599465754624
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:16 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338592364765185)
Body: Alas -- Russell was working with the women (he was sort of in charge). At 10, he used J.T.'s idol to eliminate J.T., and his team followed.
Many call J.T.'s move the WORST ever made -- but that's completely clouded by the results, and the move would usually have worked great. https://t.co/Fo49IJSZxU
Stats: 37 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338592364765185
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338591051898886)
Body: J.T. had the (IMO) genius idea to give his idol to Russell, the last man on the other team -- he figured the women had teamed up (which one woman on the team, Parvati, had done before), so Russell was next. Then at 10 left, they'd merge and J.T.'s team + Russell would be up 6-4.
Stats: 32 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338591051898886
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338589160341505)
Body: On season 20, a guy named J.T. had a "hidden immunity idol," which grants safety for one vote. J.T.'s team had 5 people, the other team had 6 -- notably, the other team was down to 5 women and 1 man. That's SUPER weird for "Survivor" since physical strength matters a lot early.
Stats: 33 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338589160341505
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338581929357313)
Body: The TV show "Survivor" features two teams competing in mostly physical competitions, with the losing team voting someone out. At ca. 10 people left the teams combine, and the vote-outs continue til a few people remain. The jury (last few eliminated) then vote for a winner. https://t.co/f0ziQa1hwd
Stats: 34 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338581929357313
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338580113158144)
Body: But when the decision is one that most people have more trouble evaluating than "what's the probability of a die roll coming up 6," people DO assume that results carry too much information.
Let's look at some examples from "real life" (I'll get back to trading in a bit):
Stats: 44 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338571795894278
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:10 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338570315259908)
Body: A key feature of those decisions is that most people -- non-experts in their fields -- would sometimes get them wrong, or at least not have a great framework for evaluating them. And that can lead to over-reliance on results when evaluating the decision itself.
Stats: 54 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338570315259908
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1426338568323039234)
Body: Many disciplines revolve around decision making. Often, the decisions are pretty easy -- especially for someone who's experienced in the discipline. The difference between top performers and everyone else tends to be how they do on average at the few % of the hardest decisions.
Stats: 85 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426338568323039234
Date: 2021-08-14 00:23:09 GMT
Body: Look at these two images -- one is my comment on Slack at 4:05am (Asia time), and one is BTC's price graph at 4:06am. Am I the best trader in the world?
A thread about decisions and results. https://t.co/lXPvE9ERm5
Stats: 573 likes, 73 retweets, 23 quote tweets, 38 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1426242357997891587
Date: 2021-08-13 18:00:51 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1426130603800514560)
Body: @cmsholdings Digital white claws
Stats: 62 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1425904671751761923
Date: 2021-08-12 19:39:00 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1425903309806870528)
Body: @cmsholdings Sir what if it’s hedged on another exchange
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1425875244313583622
Date: 2021-08-12 17:42:04 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1425861568659476486)
Body: @SBF_FTX Sam what happened here
Stats: 464 likes, 18 retweets, 8 quote tweets, 27 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1425671081738706952
Date: 2021-08-12 04:10:48 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1425533053716287493)
Body: @cmsintern For real what up w the penguins lately I legit thought it was a reference to you at first
Stats: 140 likes, 2 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 38 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1425549627760078850
Date: 2021-08-11 20:08:11 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1425542565617672196)
Body: @cmsholdings If the price of what you eat doesn't have a BTC beta you're not long enough.
Stats: 64 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1425518239828692993
Date: 2021-08-11 18:03:27 GMT
Quoted tweet: @PeterMcCormack: Sam Trabucco @AlamedaTrabucco is a gem. Loved talking to him about the #bitcoin market and trading. https://t.co/uvIZTQ8IdU
Body: What Bitcoin Did: 📈 https://t.co/l9WGukIr04
Stats: 117 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1425158603762061314
Date: 2021-08-10 18:14:23 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AuroryProject: Here is Tarbucco, the grumpy cat trader you will be able to meet in game! He will give you quests, advice, and information about this mystical world
Do not mind his temper, he was born with it.. 😾🧐 https://t.co/ybkHhANIfW
Body: The likeness is uncanny. https://t.co/vM8c4ZDxDb
Stats: 175 likes, 13 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424888123171905565
Date: 2021-08-10 00:19:36 GMT
Replying to: @AltcoinPsycho (Tweet ID: 1424887047915937794)
Body: @AltcoinPsycho We basically would never send a market order like this :P
In general, check the premium at which a trade like this happened -- if it's buying super rich to other platforms or vice-versa, it wasn't us.
Stats: 158 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424880268586885128
Date: 2021-08-09 23:48:23 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1424877190752227332)
Body: @cmsholdings Would require going outside
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424852394202984464
Date: 2021-08-09 21:57:37 GMT
Quoted tweet: @backbooked: my son has made another scratch game
"The Fortune Fighters" featuring:
@CL207 @loomdart @bantg @inversebrah and @mewn21
guest appearances by @cmsintern @cmsholdings and @AlamedaTrabucco (if you can find em)
https://t.co/J3bIAFrTnC
Body: sir https://t.co/4JUbILgCwH
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850406039973902
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850404584550427)
Body: I think THAT is what the market is reacting to -- the idea that we've "made it" -- and if crypto stays as relevant as it has been (critically, in ways which are not *really bad* regulatorily, but "neutral" is seeming sufficient to me), I suspect the market will continue to do so.
Stats: 379 likes, 31 retweets, 8 quote tweets, 26 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850404584550427
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850398142099472)
Body: A crypto-centric amendment has been the biggest thing going on, and it's front-page news of, like, real newspapers and websites. The Senate is taking this seriously, and now they're going to KEEP taking it seriously -- and not in an overly negative way. https://t.co/D1Gbs2McAl
Stats: 141 likes, 10 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850398142099472
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850396548263953)
Body: I'm in tune with crypto news because I have to be, and sometimes it's hard to keep perspective about what the "real world" cares about. This week? The real world cared about crypto, too.
Stats: 98 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850396548263953
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850393528365079)
Body: But let's zoom out again. If that was all that was happening ... why are we still >$45k?
I think the specifics of this amendment (which might still pass later!) matter, but not THAT much. https://t.co/CbPLoeYn11
Stats: 99 likes, 1 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850393528365079
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850391011782670)
Body: And I think that was borne out today when the "good version" of the amendment did not go through (unanimous consent was required here, which, BTW, is insane). We saw a SHARP drop right away, which suggests this is part of what the rally was pinned on. https://t.co/oMpPa2n5Hp
Stats: 61 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850391011782670
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850389594107925)
Body: Why? Partly the whole crypto market was reacting to the possibility of better terms in the amendment. If the newly proposed versions could get approved, that would be an awesome step toward U.S. regulatory bodies working "with us" instead of the opposite, and that's a big update.
Stats: 58 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850386054115334
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850382803529752)
Body: As things were getting hammered out -- different versions of the amendment were floated (generally aiming to remove the broad definitions of the word "broker" etc. -- I won't go into details here) -- and BTC sort of ... kept going up. https://t.co/zEhqACb8bv
Stats: 47 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850382803529752
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850380207255580)
Body: A revised version of the amendment would "target" non-PoW chains -- and take a look at the ETH/BTC chart as that was evolving. Worth noting, of course, ETH was up a LOT after its fork, but still, this is pretty extreme under-performance. https://t.co/aa206OtBw9
Stats: 56 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850380207255580
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850379301285888)
Body: So, anyway, the market recovered because we collectively decided Gensler / Yellen / whoever had had too much impact. But that's not all that was going on. Different variations of the amendment were getting tossed around, some good / bad for different segments of the space.
Stats: 55 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850379301285888
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850378055557120)
Body: (It's the same effect that lets, e.g., buying before the ETH fork be correct -- somehow, "buy right before a big event" is STILL correct, even though everyone knows about it and it "should" be arbed out.)
Stats: 126 likes, 4 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850378055557120
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850371613126692)
Body: But we also see it, I think, because the crypto trading markets are immature and just not efficient. The big firms which would arb this stuff away in traditional finance aren't yet, and so we're able to stay in these paradigms where news is CONSISTENTLY over-bought or -sold. https://t.co/3dbOt0fPbK
Stats: 112 likes, 9 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850371613126692
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850370241589267)
Body: We see this every time, partially because of our usual friend liquidations. When organic price action occurs, it triggers *some* liquidations in the same direction, amounting to (in this case) more net selling than anyone "wanted" to do, and so there's some reversion.
Stats: 88 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850370241589267
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850367280410638)
Body: And then, just like we always do, we saw the markets recover some right away. Prices just ALWAYS over-react to news, regardless of what it is -- we saw it with Elon, we saw it with China, we've seen it before from U.S. news, and we saw it here. https://t.co/cbfM16AAoZ
Stats: 116 likes, 6 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850367280410638
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850364356980741)
Body: And BTC got hit by his comments, too. There were very plausibly other things going on, of course, but these comments -- in addition to the first the market heard of the infrastructure bill amendments -- drove the market down last week. https://t.co/xEfqZQylqk
Stats: 58 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850364356980741
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1424850361320304677)
Body: U.S. government has cared about crypto on and off, but last week felt like a bit of a boiling point. Gensler (SEC chair) started talking about it last week -- one of the topics he addressed was Bitcoin ETFs, and look at the GBTC premium -- hit from -6% to -12% or so on 8/3. https://t.co/5DgKdcpR24
Stats: 69 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424850361320304677
Date: 2021-08-09 21:49:33 GMT
Body: The crypto market has been very active this week -- and that makes sense, considering all that's been going on in the U.S. What's actually happening though -- and why?
A thread about efficient markets. https://t.co/dMmBGTqf9N
Stats: 677 likes, 134 retweets, 19 quote tweets, 20 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424618407001919500
Date: 2021-08-09 06:27:51 GMT
Quoted tweet: @Evan_ss6: Gold just announced a deal with Alameda with no vesting
Body: We would never. https://t.co/9ymNdWkaAU
Stats: 164 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424163706171105281
Date: 2021-08-08 00:21:01 GMT
Replying to: @backbooked (Tweet ID: 1424163333037568001)
Body: @backbooked I hear $20k and assume people mean DOGE.
Stats: 40 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424161383436853254
Date: 2021-08-08 00:11:48 GMT
Quoted tweet: @JoePompliano: "While they was sleeping, I was grinding."
From high school to the Pro Football Hall of Fame, Edgerrin James kept that same work ethic.
(h/t @PlayersTribune) https://t.co/JS21aG6SVN
Body: I think this is the gist of most incredible success stories I know of. https://t.co/m083nRICyW
Stats: 157 likes, 8 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424120017017212930
Date: 2021-08-07 21:27:25 GMT
Replying to: @Shishir42069 (Tweet ID: 1424119783146987525)
Body: @Aidonaks https://t.co/OVMGic3v01
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1424117561701003264
Date: 2021-08-07 21:17:40 GMT
Body: I like how many people are apparently learning for the first time how insane U.S. government is.
Stats: 2930 likes, 210 retweets, 15 quote tweets, 99 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1423398484162465792
Date: 2021-08-05 21:40:18 GMT
Replying to: @fsadadj23 (Tweet ID: 1423398033757151232)
Body: @fsadadj23 @tonyresearch I've never been tagged on a question I felt less equipped to answer.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1423365887449460737
Date: 2021-08-05 19:30:47 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1423364122155098121)
Body: @cmsholdings Thank you for bringing this to my attention
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1423356752532181002
Date: 2021-08-05 18:54:29 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1423354921273995264)
Body: @cmsholdings Aren’t you tired
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1423131872557633539
Date: 2021-08-05 04:00:53 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1423129667800760323)
Body: @rsalame7926 I asked you for coffee fifteen minutes ago.
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1423096619877093379
Date: 2021-08-05 01:40:48 GMT
Body: Stablecoin https://t.co/6WWZJokj8n
Stats: 122 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 16 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1423077844540739586
Date: 2021-08-05 00:26:12 GMT
Replying to: @backbooked (Tweet ID: 1423077689372647426)
Body: @backbooked @cmsholdings https://t.co/EE4trNn7kz
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1423050243667468289
Date: 2021-08-04 22:36:31 GMT
Replying to: @RRunner144 (Tweet ID: 1423049588844474373)
Body: @RRunner144 More of a website change-up than a team change-up :D
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1423011527855022083
Date: 2021-08-04 20:02:41 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1423006288661913605)
Body: @cmsholdings Dan you know NFTs aren't on Excel right
Stats: 69 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422941637592764426
Date: 2021-08-04 15:24:58 GMT
Replying to: @lvlewitinn (Tweet ID: 1422928739747475466)
Body: @lvlewitinn Right, so if they’d asked me to I’d gladly have done so. They asked me to come discuss other topics and then asked a nonsense question no trading firm would ever answer before cutting the interview.
Stats: 8 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422914193863299072
Date: 2021-08-04 13:35:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1422903928602054658)
Body: Sorry for the rec -- I was expecting them to ask me about why the market was currently rallying so much (which I could have told them :P) but they instead interrogated me about what banks Alameda uses.
Stats: 84 likes, 2 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 34 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422903928602054658
Date: 2021-08-04 12:55:07 GMT
Quoted tweet: @CoinDesk: Coming up on "First Mover":
• @EY_US' @pbrody on SEC Chairman's crypto remarks
• @LexSokolin on the impact of Ethereum's London Hard Fork expected Thursday
• @AlamedaTrabucco with a crypto markets update
Tune in at 9 a.m. ET on https://t.co/yHMYaDyzNy: https://t.co/WM4kgRqNw0
Body: Going live on here momentarily! https://t.co/tu6WLyiQ86
Stats: 65 likes, 4 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422661050562797568
Date: 2021-08-03 20:50:00 GMT
Replying to: @J_Nordstrom (Tweet ID: 1422660510638612495)
Body: @J_Nordstrom @CasPiancey @realPaulSantos @AriDavidPaul @RaoulGMI @Tr0llyTr0llFace @ChainAgnostic @Bitfinexed Yes.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422659260870139906
Date: 2021-08-03 20:42:54 GMT
Replying to: @J_Nordstrom (Tweet ID: 1422601764021358597)
Body: @J_Nordstrom @CasPiancey @realPaulSantos @AriDavidPaul @RaoulGMI @Tr0llyTr0llFace @ChainAgnostic @Bitfinexed It's a valid way to generate 2bp/day or so (* leverage) but I don't think USDT shorting is +EV per se and there are higher low-risk yields out there.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422479826565300226
Date: 2021-08-03 08:49:53 GMT
Replying to: @sxcpconan (Tweet ID: 1422474136073293824)
Body: @sxcpconan @inversebrah This is great
Stats: 24 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422438452029652997
Date: 2021-08-03 06:05:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1422438444622483461)
Body: They're some of the best people I've been lucky enough to know, we're working hard on the coolest problems I've ever seen, and this space is the most dynamic and interesting in the world. Every day feels like a dream, and I'm so proud to be a part of it. https://t.co/nrLBkQ4ci0
Stats: 144 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 19 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422438444622483461
Date: 2021-08-03 06:05:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1422438443469053952)
Body: This is all grueling and it's only possible for me because I genuinely love being around Alameda.
Our main trading slack channel is called #trading-floor. Our shitposting channel is called #trading-ceiling, and it's easily my favorite social media platform.
Stats: 72 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422438443469053952
Date: 2021-08-03 06:05:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1422438442625994755)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: The gist of all of our activities? Follow the money. If there’s money somewhere, we want to be there. And so we devote a lot of time and energy to 1) figuring out where the money is 2) getting there.
Body: United by the common goal of following the money, we put in the work and tail it wherever it goes -- no matter if that means not sleeping, canceling occasional plans, or consuming a lot of coffee*.
https://t.co/693j6rnwm0
Stats: 42 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422438442625994755
Date: 2021-08-03 06:05:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1422438441749413892)
Body: We made something like the world's third best 2020 election models. We launched one of the biggest yield farming operations in the world -- overnight, if I recall correctly. We've learned to navigate news regardless of language and regardless of which billionaire said it.
Stats: 43 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422438441749413892
Date: 2021-08-03 06:05:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1422438440881168384)
Body: Rather than make our lives easier as we've grown, we've taken on more -- spent countless hours optimizing models and latency, put in the hard, thankless work earning OTC business, figured out how to actually do accounting for the world's most complex balance sheet.
Stats: 47 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422438440881168384
Date: 2021-08-03 06:05:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1422438440033931265)
Body: We've had months with 3 (sometimes 2) traders handling 24/7 coverage -- all on the same time zone, including weekends and Christmas. The term "10x engineer" no longer means anything to me, @nateparke was doing 10 engineers' jobs alone for a while because, hey, it had to get done.
Stats: 51 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422438440033931265
Date: 2021-08-03 06:05:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1422438439132155908)
Body: I was mostly expecting the team to be impressive in the typical ways -- everyone who pre-dated me and everyone we've hired since has been super smart, clearly talented, etc.
I'm blown away by how far we've pushed ourselves.
Stats: 42 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422438439132155908
Date: 2021-08-03 06:05:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1422438437521563653)
Body: Even more astounding is that we actually do it. Day in, day out, our models are still (almost) always fantastic, our quotes (almost) always live, our trades (almost???) always good. I've never seen a team as talented and dedicated as ours -- I'm not sure I've heard of one.
Stats: 70 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422438437521563653
Date: 2021-08-03 06:05:25 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 1) Long overdue, and bringing titles in line with what reality has been for a while:
Congratulations to some of the most impressive people I know,
@AlamedaTrabucco and @carolinecapital, the CEOs of @AlamedaResearch
And @nateparke, its CTO
Body: What Alameda is trying to do still astounds me, to some degree. A tiny team -- ten people, at some points, not even triple that now -- trying to build the world's best crypto quant trading firm, and OTC desk, and MM service, all 24/7. It sounds impossible. https://t.co/WN4bi7rEYX
Stats: 553 likes, 24 retweets, 7 quote tweets, 32 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422286694095724557
Date: 2021-08-02 20:02:27 GMT
Replying to: @ACthecollector (Tweet ID: 1422273057771622402)
Body: @ac_collecting I logged into LinkedIn yesterday and was met with like 200 messages from March.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1422013557739192323
Date: 2021-08-02 01:57:06 GMT
Replying to: @IamNomad (Tweet ID: 1422013318865248258)
Body: @IamNomad @CryptoCobain @jespow plz
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1421262077025423362
Date: 2021-07-31 00:10:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1421261082912378882)
Body: @cmsholdings I've promised my friends I won't leave parties anymore to tend to market moves so I need for this to wait.
Stats: 88 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1421261082912378882
Date: 2021-07-31 00:07:02 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1421257852849737728)
Body: @cmsholdings I have plans this weekend
Stats: 106 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1421186714572230658
Date: 2021-07-30 19:11:31 GMT
Quoted tweet: @CryptoCred: 👀
https://t.co/M02s6DcDuw
Body: 👀 https://t.co/RtcnR7UYVO
Stats: 67 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 14 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420908260756914176
Date: 2021-07-30 00:45:03 GMT
Quoted tweet: @Darrenlautf: Rip just got @MoetFi 's new deck - they're raising vals now, look what you did @mgnr_io 😤 https://t.co/bZ1Lp18Lqg
Body: Alpha https://t.co/0PurVs5V3d
Stats: 31 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420904395043053569
Date: 2021-07-30 00:29:41 GMT
Replying to: @SalsaTekila (Tweet ID: 1420900016793825283)
Body: @SalsaTekila Yeah TBH I just wanted to sound nice for once.
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420899223713710085
Date: 2021-07-30 00:09:08 GMT
Quoted tweet: @zhusu: Edgy take of the week but it's a good thing if IPOs nuke on listing vs if they pop up on listing. Means no value was leaked to middlemen + bankers, and investors also need to do more research instead of aping every new thing.
Body: I agree with this if the only alternative is IPOs pumping, but I dream of a world where markets are efficient and IPOs on average start at their fair price. https://t.co/1ojveevc1u https://t.co/H1GpNptZb8
Stats: 82 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420850811567960064
Date: 2021-07-29 20:56:46 GMT
Replying to: @roshunpatel (Tweet ID: 1420846437533954060)
Body: @roshunpatel I think this tweet was in response to the 4th "10bb stack limp" I saw
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420773507344965633
Date: 2021-07-29 15:49:35 GMT
Body: OK watching the last two tables I rescind my comments that I suck at poker
Stats: 129 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420752620466016258
Date: 2021-07-29 14:26:35 GMT
Replying to: @zacharylau (Tweet ID: 1420742504421330952)
Body: @zacharylau gg
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420750848083206144
Date: 2021-07-29 14:19:33 GMT
Replying to: @Kasperbit (Tweet ID: 1420733963845390339)
Body: @Kasperbit I'm allergic to most of them, golden doodles are my fav that I can get near.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420750303549218831
Date: 2021-07-29 14:17:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420749935473946635)
Body: Like I did TRY that for a while and it didn't go great.
Stats: 58 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420749935473946635
Date: 2021-07-29 14:15:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420744521814396928)
Body: It's like, OK you're not wrong but IDK what you're expecting here https://t.co/F90lFPxhMa
Stats: 58 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420746773035819012
Date: 2021-07-29 14:03:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420249639144488960)
Body: @cmsholdings Good call not responding to this I'd have won.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420745315053756416
Date: 2021-07-29 13:57:33 GMT
Replying to: @UntweetThis (Tweet ID: 1420745070429437963)
Body: @UntweetThis Yeah TBH figured out how to use it during and didn't realize I'd need that, v naive.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420744521814396928
Date: 2021-07-29 13:54:24 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Sorry folks I'm bad but figured this out at last
https://t.co/btcaRJt3PQ
Body: Lost oops!
Also jesus christ I've heard complaints about twitch chat but I now feel that I get it. https://t.co/NoIOx3cdrX
Stats: 57 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420732757836144641
Date: 2021-07-29 13:07:40 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1420727734305660935)
Body: @rsalame7926 TBH if you’re watching this stream you will question whether I can talk the talk.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420727599517470725
Date: 2021-07-29 12:47:10 GMT
Body: Sorry folks I'm bad but figured this out at last
https://t.co/btcaRJt3PQ
Stats: 46 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420714757414264837
Date: 2021-07-29 11:56:08 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsholdings: Gm to everyone except Tabasco who we go to war with in the fine art of cards this morning
Body: All things considered my best case here is getting sucked out on early so no one figures out I suck at poker. https://t.co/vLyJXBWwNh
Stats: 106 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420555030059393026
Date: 2021-07-29 01:21:26 GMT
Replying to: @cewh1te (Tweet ID: 1420553456440553472)
Body: @cewh1te @cmsholdings @cmsintern He sent me a pic earlier of a box of white claws he bought, is that what you mean
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420552521077067777
Date: 2021-07-29 01:11:28 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1420547710181064708)
Body: @cmsholdings @cmsintern https://t.co/xHZq4JcpHO
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420552018469408768
Date: 2021-07-29 01:09:28 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1420550079786754054)
Body: @cmsholdings @Sicarious_ The idea of you losing money?
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420532727988719623
Date: 2021-07-28 23:52:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420532640269037573)
Body: @mattysino (In a fundamental way anyway, it makes some like strategic sense I think)
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420532640269037573
Date: 2021-07-28 23:52:28 GMT
Replying to: @mattysino (Tweet ID: 1420297752391544838)
Body: @mattysino I have vague hope for this too mostly because it legit just feels like such a weird thing for her to be against.
Stats: 20 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420522210788200449
Date: 2021-07-28 23:11:01 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsintern: Real footage of the OG’s battling to secure their spots to the CryptOG Charity Poker tourney tomorrow
Streaming on @UpOnlyTV https://t.co/ZxzLMUUh5M
Body: “I’ve got million dollar deals in my DMs” https://t.co/oGnOFNdFYE
Stats: 88 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420514866800914438
Date: 2021-07-28 22:41:50 GMT
Replying to: @TheReal_Crypto (Tweet ID: 1420514122035343366)
Body: @TheReal_Crypto Usually is :P
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420513825900535810
Date: 2021-07-28 22:37:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420513825229398016)
Body: People should look more at signals which have actual, consistent directional narratives — these types of signals are much more likely to help trading.
Stats: 158 likes, 10 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 14 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420513825229398016
Date: 2021-07-28 22:37:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420513824671600641)
Body: Without any of that, this is probably just a wallet shuffle, or someone moving active capital from one place to another, or a combo.
(Caveat I have not checked this case in particular)
Stats: 57 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420513824671600641
Date: 2021-07-28 22:37:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420513824004722690)
Body: But the information in that pet example is ACTUALLY the rich bid — the transfer is sort of just confirmation of the info you already had.
Stats: 49 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420513824004722690
Date: 2021-07-28 22:37:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420513823081914368)
Body: If, for instance, we know that Coinbase had demonstrable, massive inflows for a few days (maybe: it was at a large premium), AND this withdrawal went somewhere known as a HODL wallet, sure.
Stats: 45 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420513823081914368
Date: 2021-07-28 22:37:41 GMT
Quoted tweet: @iamjosephyoung: $1.3 billion Bitcoin outflow from Coinbase.
$1,300,000,000.
Body: One of my biggest pet peeves is the idea that these transfers mean anything in a vacuum. https://t.co/yLA8NyBx3R
Stats: 438 likes, 24 retweets, 10 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420509064518270979
Date: 2021-07-28 22:18:47 GMT
Replying to: @VentureCoinist (Tweet ID: 1420505742323372035)
Body: @VentureCoinist @CryptoCobain These odds are pretty baffling :P
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420470219676405761
Date: 2021-07-28 19:44:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420470087253856257)
Body: @cmsholdings I finally know why I was told not to say the "s word"
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420470087253856257
Date: 2021-07-28 19:43:54 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1420465482625396746)
Body: @cmsholdings Pass https://t.co/HWgIqNe5l3
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420250931694739458
Date: 2021-07-28 05:13:03 GMT
Replying to: @pools_0x (Tweet ID: 1420250572792369159)
Body: @pools_0x @3L3C70 @cmsholdings If someone tells me how to do this on a delay I will.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420249639144488960
Date: 2021-07-28 05:07:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420169965429133314)
Body: @cmsholdings We need something for last man standing among the 6 of us.
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243510133809152
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420243503020339208)
Body: But $40k is a local max, so there's also LOTS of potential for shorts put on much lower to get liquidated if we rally even a little more. We'll see! It should be an interesting next few days, and I'm sure glad I caught up on sleep. https://t.co/qUpsWwl1G3
Stats: 385 likes, 13 retweets, 26 quote tweets, 22 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243503020339208
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420243501690679302)
Body: So! That leaves us here, hanging out just under $40k. A lot can happen from here -- BTC has had a stock beta, so there's potential for it to remain sorta beholden to that, and there has historically been "round number resistance" maybe causing it to struggle staying >$40k.
Stats: 132 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243501690679302
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420243499497127942)
Body: And -- on FTX and elsewhere -- spot margin systems are getting SUPER popular. And they generally allow less leverage than derivatives platforms do, again leading -- I think -- the market to see this as a huge deal.
Stats: 106 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243499497127942
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420243496187809793)
Body: FTX -- a platform known for its lack of liquidations relative to peers -- had the richest bids by a LOT during this run-up, as you can see by looking at its elevated funding. If their users are less levered, somehow this seems less likely to undo itself when someone gets rekt. https://t.co/A3SatPwBwY
Stats: 117 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243496187809793
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420243494623318016)
Body: ... and, maybe the biggest reason -- this time, I legitimately *do* think people are coming around to the idea that the market's current recovery is WAY less leverage-driven than in the past. Where we once saw rallies driven by Binance perps, now we see them led elsewhere.
Stats: 136 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243494623318016
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420243491720888325)
Body: And I think the market recovered faster this time for a few reasons:
- Faster life cycle: in March 2020 crypto was hit off COVID and took months to recover; this time, we expected it to, so the market acted *quickly*
- The China stock news seems to have more legs than average? https://t.co/eDLBBXwaPI
Stats: 99 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243491720888325
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420243484657676289)
Body: ... and third, this time, was an even sharper crash (abetted by the U.S. stock market getting hit a bit, too, and when the U.S. market gets significantly hit, especially amidst renewed COVID fears, crypto does often follow -- but a TON of this was liquidation reversion). https://t.co/occNfhFPpd
Stats: 93 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243484657676289
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420243482942218245)
Body: BTC ping-ponged around a bit before, ultimately, something REALLY similar happened the next day. First:
- Chinese market crashed a lot -> China gonna buy?
- Etc., more of the same kinds of good news for the market.
Second, liquidations.
Stats: 98 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243482942218245
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420243478064205824)
Body: Combined with the low liquidity at the time, these liquidations were a TON of what drove the market first to $38k and then to $40k and beyond. And as we've seen so many times, this quick liquidation-driven follow-on to a rally was an obviously great short-term sale. https://t.co/GD75GQ9Urn
Stats: 110 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243478064205824
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420243474188705793)
Body: Third -- and, I'll be brief since this is a classic -- yes, buying liquidations did happen on Sunday night, especially during the quick rally to $40k (and WAY beyond, on some platforms where 100x leverage runs rampant). https://t.co/qiiOMwVqo6
Stats: 122 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243474188705793
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420243461685485569)
Body: ... and low liquidity + some directional impetus tends to trigger much bigger moves than would happen during a period of "regular liquidity," more sellers that the net buyers need to work their way through to have the same impact. https://t.co/O5NN1JCa0F
Stats: 113 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243461685485569
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420243453657501696)
Body: Second, the run-up happened on Sunday night U.S. time, very early morning Asia time. As we've seen before, this is the type of period when liquidity can be at its lowest because it's not really part of anyone's "normal working hours" (it's not zero because it's still crypto) ... https://t.co/ZmLbj566rZ
Stats: 122 likes, 1 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243453657501696
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420243445973610503)
Body: I think a few small effects combined here. First, there was some vague positive sentiment:
- Elon is in a "he loves us" phase
- Now maybe Amazon is in too? Maybe not but, like, maybe?
- China FUD in general, maybe they'll buy BTC instead? https://t.co/7JDDbZzJe1
Stats: 113 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243445973610503
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420243442311995396)
Body: On Sunday night, BTC bounded up quite fast -- it rallied steadily from $34k to $36k or so, and then shot RIGHT up to $40k all at once. What's the story there? https://t.co/nAIeDz0Ec8
Stats: 118 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420243442311995396
Date: 2021-07-28 04:43:18 GMT
Body: For a few weeks, BTC was boring -- it only moved like 10% over the course of (plural) days. I hope you all caught up on sleep, because crypto is now fun again! What exactly has been going on?
A thread about the calm and the storm. https://t.co/1VkN324o7h
Stats: 1043 likes, 174 retweets, 30 quote tweets, 47 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420179153349791749
Date: 2021-07-28 00:27:50 GMT
Replying to: @adamscochran (Tweet ID: 1420178760796622854)
Body: @adamscochran @cmsholdings I loved the SAT writing section:
- Essay: practice lying
- Multiple choice: socially acceptable way to correct people's grammar
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420177185562714112
Date: 2021-07-28 00:20:01 GMT
Replying to: @AviFelman (Tweet ID: 1420176135074222089)
Body: @AviFelman @HsakaTrades @cmsholdings 0101001100
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420175573259673602
Date: 2021-07-28 00:13:36 GMT
Replying to: @HsakaTrades (Tweet ID: 1420175483434536961)
Body: @HsakaTrades @cmsholdings It was a second 2390 :( fucking reading
Stats: 29 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420175340706533378
Date: 2021-07-28 00:12:41 GMT
Replying to: @defiXBT (Tweet ID: 1420175042768347137)
Body: @defiXBT @cmsholdings I got a second 2390.
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420175207763890176
Date: 2021-07-28 00:12:09 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1420173006601588741)
Body: @cmsholdings #trade
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420174962300649481
Date: 2021-07-28 00:11:11 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1420105055206789122)
Body: @cmsholdings Fun fact, I got a 2390 on the SAT and retook it.
Stats: 76 likes, 2 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 19 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420173827221250053
Date: 2021-07-28 00:06:40 GMT
Replying to: @daarfield (Tweet ID: 1420173575437307912)
Body: @daarfield @cmsholdings Not sure I can commit to this.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420170372071059457
Date: 2021-07-27 23:52:56 GMT
Replying to: @QueerBTC (Tweet ID: 1420170092390895617)
Body: @Raydiumbaby @cmsholdings I don't want this to be winning the FTX Foundation that seems rude. https://t.co/rT6LjRCrVx
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420169965429133314
Date: 2021-07-27 23:51:19 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1420169276875546626)
Body: @cmsholdings Done.
Stats: 67 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420169826551484416
Date: 2021-07-27 23:50:46 GMT
Replying to: @cobie (Tweet ID: 1420169586662649859)
Body: @CryptoCobain @Milkman2228 @cmsholdings https://t.co/1qXSOp88Z9
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420169197179445248
Date: 2021-07-27 23:48:16 GMT
Replying to: @Milkman2228 (Tweet ID: 1420168781398171649)
Body: @Milkman2228 @cmsholdings Let me know when you've delivered $136B into escrow.
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420168566108688390
Date: 2021-07-27 23:45:46 GMT
Replying to: @Milkman2228 (Tweet ID: 1420167981934448643)
Body: @Milkman2228 @cmsholdings I don't exactly understand what we're saying here but I think Anheuser Busch has like 40x the market cap of White Claw's manufacturer so deal.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420167751302148097
Date: 2021-07-27 23:42:32 GMT
Replying to: @Milkman2228 (Tweet ID: 1420167358652559361)
Body: @Milkman2228 @cmsholdings At what odds
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420167316352864260
Date: 2021-07-27 23:40:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1420167113763745797)
Body: @cmsholdings BTW AlamedaElwin is the one to watch in this tournament.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420167113763745797
Date: 2021-07-27 23:40:00 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1420162686013353992)
Body: @cmsholdings How many white claws are you willing to risk
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420160774190735360
Date: 2021-07-27 23:14:48 GMT
Replying to: @CL207 (Tweet ID: 1420160104230309890)
Body: @CL207 bad question when is this
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420132105497939969
Date: 2021-07-27 21:20:53 GMT
Replying to: @CoinDesk (Tweet ID: 1420131469154996232)
Body: @CoinDesk @Frances_Coppola @Grayscale @CoinDesk @Grayscale I would love to discuss this some time if you're looking for a perspective informed by actually having used Tether.
Stats: 120 likes, 6 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1420102784418861060
Date: 2021-07-27 19:24:22 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1420095250362781698)
Body: @cmsholdings Robinhood's protection : crypto volatility :: forcing people who got the vaccine not to go to restaurants : COVID
Did I do that right
Stats: 49 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419837512688623617
Date: 2021-07-27 01:50:16 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1419828593253920799)
Body: @jackshaftoes @choffstein Start?
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419820509210898436
Date: 2021-07-27 00:42:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1419820437429575683)
Body: @jackshaftoes @choffstein Thicc Pokemon on the other hand
Stats: 32 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419820437429575683
Date: 2021-07-27 00:42:25 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1419818555189649417)
Body: @jackshaftoes @choffstein Crypto punks are not a "luxury good"
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419809296477343748
Date: 2021-07-26 23:58:09 GMT
Replying to: @choffstein (Tweet ID: 1419808662579781639)
Body: @choffstein Yeah this would work
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419798156703797259
Date: 2021-07-26 23:13:53 GMT
Replying to: @Hey_MrCrypto (Tweet ID: 1419780203467902988)
Body: @Hey_MrCrypto @CryptoCobain Days off?
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419786479874633731
Date: 2021-07-26 22:27:29 GMT
Replying to: @backbooked (Tweet ID: 1419785494892892160)
Body: @backbooked This gets me into all kinds of trouble.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419784763649396751
Date: 2021-07-26 22:20:40 GMT
Replying to: @unsound_advice (Tweet ID: 1419780247763832832)
Body: @unsound_advice @coingecko It won't, everywhere it trades it's trading $1.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419779114156781568
Date: 2021-07-26 21:58:13 GMT
Body: @coingecko I think something might be off here :P https://t.co/BsjzhJTG6T
Stats: 33 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419776727853658119
Date: 2021-07-26 21:48:44 GMT
Replying to: @cobie (Tweet ID: 1419776583531892737)
Body: @CryptoCobain Please ask Jeff to change his mind for us.
Stats: 130 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419754506380709909
Date: 2021-07-26 20:20:26 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1419749610873139203)
Body: @FTX_Official @MLB Sir, I believe they're called FTX: Moon Blasts now.
Stats: 37 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419731603358568450
Date: 2021-07-26 18:49:26 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1419727065486532609)
Body: @rsalame7926 Interesting how little you do then!!!!!!!!!
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419726982816751617
Date: 2021-07-26 18:31:04 GMT
Body: This now tags me on slack, everyone involved sucks.
@tonyresearch https://t.co/6QPk66DstB
Stats: 130 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 17 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419528162342424579
Date: 2021-07-26 05:21:02 GMT
Quoted tweet: @ZetaMarkets: 1. Introducing our 1st #Zetaverse celebrity trader @AlamedaTrabucco representing @AlamedaResearch 🔥Go head to head with Sam in the #Zetaverse trading competition💪Those who generate more profit than him win a limited edition Sam Trabucco #NFT Trading Card! https://t.co/dojHUyarT5
Body: Petition to add buying the dip to the Olympics. https://t.co/EyESdxC6u9
Stats: 214 likes, 8 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419376455956393985
Date: 2021-07-25 19:18:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1419375691187904512)
Body: @CL207 @SBF_Alameda TO BE CLEAR this is a 100x leverage joke
Stats: 61 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419375691187904512
Date: 2021-07-25 19:15:10 GMT
Replying to: @CL207 (Tweet ID: 1419375574913470464)
Body: @CL207 @SBF_Alameda Sam canceled liquidations earlier.
Stats: 52 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419374722890952709
Date: 2021-07-25 19:11:19 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1419315219742949378)
Body: @SBF_Alameda Sam what would you do with that machine
Stats: 239 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 18 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419373027419070467
Date: 2021-07-25 19:04:35 GMT
Replying to: @Milkman2228 (Tweet ID: 1419329703639494661)
Body: @Milkman2228 sir
Stats: 47 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419121877545414666
Date: 2021-07-25 02:26:36 GMT
Replying to: @jebus911 (Tweet ID: 1419118933739724807)
Body: @jebus911 Green candles.
Stats: 70 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419117897591320580
Date: 2021-07-25 02:10:47 GMT
Body: Are there any high-level topics people want me to write a thread about?
Stats: 418 likes, 19 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 192 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419028267969835009
Date: 2021-07-24 20:14:38 GMT
Replying to: @ftx_app (Tweet ID: 1419025214944464905)
Body: @blockfolio Hide it on Cardano and Harry would still be looking.
Stats: 67 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1419022066007740416
Date: 2021-07-24 19:49:59 GMT
Replying to: @jp_JellyRoll (Tweet ID: 1418822010998857729)
Body: @jp04636669 I should have fact-checked this before publishing my research!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418814914592796672
Date: 2021-07-24 06:06:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1418814836218097664)
Body: Twitter needs a breathalyzer.
Stats: 90 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418814836218097664
Date: 2021-07-24 06:06:31 GMT
Body: Olympic medals are the original cryptocurrency, they're shaped like coins and their value isn't tied to any one government.
Stats: 226 likes, 7 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 16 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418810768737275904
Date: 2021-07-24 05:50:22 GMT
Body: Expecting every Olympic medal to say FTX on it and be redeemable for an NFT and 40 FTT, please do not correct me about this.
Stats: 302 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 17 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418647495710633987
Date: 2021-07-23 19:01:34 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1418647042201640960)
Body: @cmsholdings @backbooked I'm in the process of getting prints of some of the funnier death threats made for my new condo.
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418646314544295937
Date: 2021-07-23 18:56:53 GMT
Replying to: @backbooked (Tweet ID: 1418644782197379073)
Body: @backbooked @cmsholdings Name a round I've lost.
Stats: 9 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418611535623032836
Date: 2021-07-23 16:38:41 GMT
Replying to: @Wahndo_ (Tweet ID: 1418609968891244549)
Body: @DeFiConsigliere @SBF_Alameda @fishxbt You can’t just ask someone that
Stats: 34 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418610375180775426
Date: 2021-07-23 16:34:04 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1418397497643487235)
Body: @cmsholdings Tell us more about being old
Stats: 77 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418609651734568963
Date: 2021-07-23 16:31:12 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1418590028725329920)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @fishxbt My beaver ring is better than Sam’s.
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418343213878767618
Date: 2021-07-22 22:52:28 GMT
Quoted tweet: @ZetaMarkets: 1. With our Alpha release in full flow... it is now time to put your binary options skills to the test! We are incredibly excited to announce the #Zetaverse trading competition starting on 31st July 10:00 UTC 🔥 https://t.co/NMYI0hd98e
Body: I wonder who the celebrity traders are. https://t.co/Hgi74gj0tT
Stats: 45 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418329884854608096
Date: 2021-07-22 21:59:30 GMT
Replying to: @NewChoppa1 (Tweet ID: 1418203853862830081)
Body: @NewChoppa1 @MiltonBurchill @SBF_Alameda @Nishad__Singh @FTX_Official @AlamedaResearch OK obviously not gonna interact with the billionaire thing but I agree I should get a checkmark I've never tried.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418270798293311488
Date: 2021-07-22 18:04:43 GMT
Replying to: @JeremyRubin (Tweet ID: 1418265144107290624)
Body: @JeremyRubin @acityinohio @zackvoell @samtabasco @AlabamaTabasco @AppleTV DO IT @AppleTV, everyone thinks you won’t.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418251832220999680
Date: 2021-07-22 16:49:21 GMT
Replying to: @0x4C756B65 (Tweet ID: 1418251554558300164)
Body: @0x4C756B65 @cmsholdings It’s true I do intend to look at w graph or two
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418251323066093570
Date: 2021-07-22 16:47:19 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1418251099748843532)
Body: @cmsholdings I’m not even at the office and have not checked the price of BTC yet so everyone chill
Stats: 32 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 13 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418250913915957250
Date: 2021-07-22 16:45:42 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1418250826708094979)
Body: @cmsholdings sorry sir
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418250642431217664
Date: 2021-07-22 16:44:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1418250257884868608)
Body: @cmsholdings sir random walks sometimes go down even if they’re biased upward
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418250257884868608
Date: 2021-07-22 16:43:05 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1418249811921358871)
Body: @cmsholdings sir
Stats: 33 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418086175076589571
Date: 2021-07-22 05:51:05 GMT
Replying to: @Crypt0xG (Tweet ID: 1418083642488750083)
Body: @Crypt0xG No one's ever called me Tabasco before today lol.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418083024982269952
Date: 2021-07-22 05:38:34 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AWice: "Sam Tabasco at Alabama Research" is the current leader for best meme of 2021.
Body: The market: https://t.co/fCManDEubP https://t.co/5U9oPs4IBv
Stats: 289 likes, 6 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 16 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418055159087722501
Date: 2021-07-22 03:47:50 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1418021386040266753)
Body: @cmsholdings I find it glorious.
Stats: 60 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418041450197966849
Date: 2021-07-22 02:53:22 GMT
Replying to: @Iam_JohnCho (Tweet ID: 1418039634932633605)
Body: @JohnCho__ @MiltonBurchill @SBF_Alameda @Nishad__Singh @FTX_Official @AlamedaResearch Nate is always ordering so many bagels when I tell him to stop because if I'm near bagels I just eat them.
Stats: 11 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1418037112050360320
Date: 2021-07-22 02:36:08 GMT
Replying to: @MiltonBurchill (Tweet ID: 1418021886953357315)
Body: @MiltonBurchill @SBF_Alameda @Nishad__Singh @FTX_Official @AlamedaResearch We don't measure wealth in fiat.
Stats: 198 likes, 4 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417967322082385923
Date: 2021-07-21 21:58:48 GMT
Replying to: @JeffRossiter (Tweet ID: 1417889395399544841)
Body: @JeffRossiter sir
Stats: 33 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417916497855324161
Date: 2021-07-21 18:36:51 GMT
Body: why am I not on this call
Stats: 509 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 34 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417692797243564034
Date: 2021-07-21 03:47:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417692400017756167)
Body: LOL I meant to change "X" to something after I wrote the thread but forgot.
Stats: 229 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417692709117071362
Date: 2021-07-21 03:47:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417692437070286851)
Body: We'll see if we're right! For a quant team we do put on fairly big delta positions longish-term, and I've been glad that it's been this direction so frequently -- bull markets are way more fun. https://t.co/pPtEuxr9Z0
Stats: 536 likes, 19 retweets, 14 quote tweets, 24 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417692437070286851
Date: 2021-07-21 03:46:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417692430925647881)
Body: And all these led to Alameda doing what we do best -- buying a LOT more over the past day or so. This isn't quite "sell us all you want below $30k and fuck off" territory, but we're continuing to buy down here, because it really just seems like too much points that way. https://t.co/8l01jJAnhZ
Stats: 659 likes, 79 retweets, 75 quote tweets, 19 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417692430925647881
Date: 2021-07-21 03:46:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417692429977673736)
Body: So everything is pointing (weakly!) in the direction of wanting to get longer here. Futures premia are low, too, and OIs have shifted in a way where, if there IS a recovery, it could definitely trigger liquidation-driven momentum (admittedly, we're not *that* close to this).
Stats: 168 likes, 8 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417692429977673736
Date: 2021-07-21 03:46:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417692428685832196)
Body: In my view, all these point a similar (if vague) direction. News impact tends to revert? I'd expect crypto to rally more. Stock market *did* revert? I'd expect crypto to have reverted more, too. Liquidation moves usually revert? Same story.
Stats: 102 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417692428685832196
Date: 2021-07-21 03:46:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417692422432165889)
Body: LIQUIDATIONS
Won't bore you all here -- yesterday was *partially* driven by liquidations, but not a TON. Way less than I'd have guessed, really -- and the moves from those liquidations didn't really revert all the way, like I'd have thought. https://t.co/zCZOOZXcOM
Stats: 102 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417692422432165889
Date: 2021-07-21 03:46:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417692421068967937)
Body: ... But the stock market partially recovered today, why didn't crypto recover too? Either this wasn't a big effect, or it's still going to, or, IDK, crypto is weird or something.
Stats: 101 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417692421068967937
Date: 2021-07-21 03:46:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417692414731423755)
Body: STONKS
This is kinda a sub-category of news -- the stock market did react negatively yesterday to various pieces of news about the new Delta variant of COVID. And as we learned last year, when the stock market moves off of big (esp. COVID) news, crypto follows. https://t.co/BU15GbA3CI
Stats: 111 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417692414731423755
Date: 2021-07-21 03:46:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417692413821214721)
Body: But it's definitely true that there have been fewer buyers for the past few days (duh), and maybe that's partially a reflection of the people who *are* reacting to news (at least short-term!) finally out-numbering those who are not, or who are betting on reversion.
Stats: 98 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417692413821214721
Date: 2021-07-21 03:46:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417692412084772868)
Body: The market *definitely* reacted to all this in aggregate -- I think typically the market *does* over-react and tend to revert, on both short and long timescales, but it's net gone down, so possibly there's still more impact to revert? Possibly the paradigm has shifted? IDK.
Stats: 117 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417692412084772868
Date: 2021-07-21 03:46:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417692401427042305)
Body: NEWS
There's been a decent build-up of negative news, I guess -> Elon chilled on BTC, China cracked down for the nth time, GBTC unlock is maybe negative to many? And then a few other things. https://t.co/bbEpRJwgdx
Stats: 95 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417692401427042305
Date: 2021-07-21 03:46:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417692400017756167)
Body: Why did the market fall yesterday? I don't have the most compelling answer for you, but I can tell you how Alameda is thinking about things.
Stats: 115 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417692400017756167
Date: 2021-07-21 03:46:22 GMT
Body: Up until the last day or so, the market has been stuck in a fairly consistent "zone" for a bit now. It's honestly been sorta ... boring?
A thread about X. https://t.co/RJxIuQQbSH
Stats: 1003 likes, 147 retweets, 49 quote tweets, 44 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417629570837016576
Date: 2021-07-20 23:36:42 GMT
Replying to: @Frances_Coppola (Tweet ID: 1417627640316506116)
Body: @Frances_Coppola @rsalame7926 @NotoriousPtG @buchmanster @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin @cmsholdings There's more than one address, we have no interest in demonstrating all of our activity to you.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417626558374694914
Date: 2021-07-20 23:24:44 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1417626347602518017)
Body: @rsalame7926 @Frances_Coppola @NotoriousPtG @buchmanster @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin @cmsholdings Is this what it was like to be gay in the 60s
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417626381878398982
Date: 2021-07-20 23:24:02 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1417625659526946816)
Body: @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings @Frances_Coppola @NotoriousPtG @buchmanster @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin If a tether truther shrieks into the void on twitter and no one was left who hadn't muted them, did it ever really happen
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417624496396062721
Date: 2021-07-20 23:16:32 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1417624279030681604)
Body: @cmsholdings @gulovsen @Frances_Coppola @heliben2 @NotoriousPtG @buchmanster @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin Important pivot for sure
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417622057257377792
Date: 2021-07-20 23:06:51 GMT
Body: Muting the next person who mentions USDT to me for sport.
Stats: 221 likes, 1 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 34 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417621441890062339
Date: 2021-07-20 23:04:24 GMT
Replying to: @buchmanster (Tweet ID: 1417620296379535368)
Body: @buchmanster @Frances_Coppola @adamscochran @cmsholdings @heliben2 @NotoriousPtG @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin Market cap by time is available and so are tx times.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417619647197696001
Date: 2021-07-20 22:57:16 GMT
Replying to: @Frances_Coppola (Tweet ID: 1417618253829001220)
Body: @Frances_Coppola @adamscochran @buchmanster @cmsholdings @heliben2 @NotoriousPtG @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin IDK what else to tell you really, lining everything we've said up with e.g. https://t.co/QvccmacoQq might paint a compelling picture.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417613455876452353
Date: 2021-07-20 22:32:40 GMT
Replying to: @GeorgeSelgin (Tweet ID: 1417606599556927491)
Body: @GeorgeSelgin @NotoriousPtG @Frances_Coppola @buchmanster @izakaminska @cmsholdings Alameda typically sells because USDT almost always trades above $1, the preference for smart firms to sell instead of redeeming has 0 to do with AML.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417611968161087493
Date: 2021-07-20 22:26:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417611896325238789)
Body: @Frances_Coppola @muzkmuzkmuzk @NotoriousPtG @buchmanster @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin @cmsholdings I invite you to find them, as I have now noted three times.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417611896325238789
Date: 2021-07-20 22:26:28 GMT
Replying to: @Frances_Coppola (Tweet ID: 1417611622676320257)
Body: @Frances_Coppola @muzkmuzkmuzk @NotoriousPtG @buchmanster @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin @cmsholdings We did!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417611529067778049
Date: 2021-07-20 22:25:01 GMT
Replying to: @buchmanster (Tweet ID: 1417611173025959938)
Body: @buchmanster @Frances_Coppola @muzkmuzkmuzk @NotoriousPtG @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin @cmsholdings I have no idea where our redemptions go -- we follow redemption instructions and are wired dollars.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417610917043314690
Date: 2021-07-20 22:22:35 GMT
Replying to: @Frances_Coppola (Tweet ID: 1417608739239104513)
Body: @Frances_Coppola @muzkmuzkmuzk @NotoriousPtG @buchmanster @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin @cmsholdings Exchange trades do not appear on blockchains.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417608526495580160
Date: 2021-07-20 22:13:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417608250078294019)
Body: @Frances_Coppola @muzkmuzkmuzk @NotoriousPtG @buchmanster @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin @cmsholdings USDT is usually above $1 and Alameda is a trading desk trying to make money, so when this occurs we do not redeem.
It has been <$1 and we have redeemed, Ryan and I have both posted examples of our desk doing this in the past, I invite you to find them.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417608250078294019
Date: 2021-07-20 22:11:59 GMT
Replying to: @Frances_Coppola (Tweet ID: 1417607321547587589)
Quoted tweet: @Frances_Coppola: @AlamedaTrabucco @NotoriousPtG @buchmanster @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin @cmsholdings It would be good to see an example of actual redemption at Tether. I've seen your previous examples of "redemption", and they were all exchange trades.
Body: @Frances_Coppola @muzkmuzkmuzk @NotoriousPtG @buchmanster @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin @cmsholdings This is an error, as I have literally never done what you claim here: https://t.co/Kuwc3ZR3bX
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417602125002117129
Date: 2021-07-20 21:47:39 GMT
Replying to: @Frances_Coppola (Tweet ID: 1417601721245835265)
Body: @Frances_Coppola @NotoriousPtG @buchmanster @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin @cmsholdings This is not true lol
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417601100526493699
Date: 2021-07-20 21:43:34 GMT
Replying to: @Frances_Coppola (Tweet ID: 1417599983554027522)
Body: @Frances_Coppola @NotoriousPtG @buchmanster @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin @cmsholdings When I said "we've done this many times" I meant provide examples, I will leave finding the many other threads about this to you.
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417593155738738691
Date: 2021-07-20 21:12:00 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1417591412653129728)
Body: @cmsholdings Ooh we should start offering a redemption-like service, maybe our OTC desk could bid people's USDT against whatever they want? And then we'll either sell if it's >$1 (usually is, wonder why) or redeem if not. Just spitballing.
Stats: 99 likes, 7 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417592662454984709
Date: 2021-07-20 21:10:02 GMT
Replying to: @Frances_Coppola (Tweet ID: 1417591139360772099)
Body: @Frances_Coppola @NotoriousPtG @buchmanster @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin @cmsholdings We've done this many times!
Stats: 34 likes, 2 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417590795964616705
Date: 2021-07-20 21:02:37 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1417499449241255956)
Body: @cmsholdings Every action someone takes is a tool to take them down.
Stats: 9 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417590700716167170
Date: 2021-07-20 21:02:15 GMT
Replying to: @NotoriousPtG (Tweet ID: 1417495993545801731)
Body: @NotoriousPtG @Frances_Coppola @buchmanster @izakaminska @GeorgeSelgin @cmsholdings Yup redemption exists!
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417590412886167552
Date: 2021-07-20 21:01:06 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1417588163795578880)
Body: @FTX_Official @TheBlock__ TBH I don't want to see the world's fanciest beanbag. That's like the world's smartest horse.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417378357365272576
Date: 2021-07-20 06:58:28 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1417370865323241475)
Body: @SBF_Alameda I think it has a high ceiling but low EV in draft.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417376375007186944
Date: 2021-07-20 06:50:36 GMT
Replying to: @mattysino (Tweet ID: 1417375241530081281)
Body: @mattysino Alameda vs. Sino team draft when
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417373695815811074
Date: 2021-07-20 06:39:57 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1417366050677555200)
Body: @FTX_Official Also you overuse 👀
Stats: 56 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417363757764730880
Date: 2021-07-20 06:00:27 GMT
Replying to: @CWidgidea1 (Tweet ID: 1417363052463337473)
Body: @CWidgidea1 I am controlling the better account.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417362487456923651
Date: 2021-07-20 05:55:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1417362334721273860)
Body: @FTX_Official You come at the king, you'd best not miss.
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417362334721273860
Date: 2021-07-20 05:54:48 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1417357440169906177)
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: 👀FTT
Body: @FTX_Official https://t.co/P1h9WMsyYt
Stats: 29 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417354178310021132
Date: 2021-07-20 05:22:23 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1417339258973560833)
Body: @FTX_Official Are you claiming to have never tweeted something true in all caps
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417334894099718148
Date: 2021-07-20 04:05:46 GMT
Replying to: @JutXBT (Tweet ID: 1417334443031814146)
Body: @lhsotaS are you new
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417334246373412864
Date: 2021-07-20 04:03:11 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: so I have no idea what's going on here but this is not at all true, there's literally nothing true about it, the deal is still 🔥 https://t.co/fWXuQ3z9PH
Body: quick buy the dip https://t.co/jiSC4SLGDN
Stats: 154 likes, 7 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 16 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417244508933156896
Date: 2021-07-19 22:06:36 GMT
Replying to: @lightspringfox (Tweet ID: 1417225268410781698)
Body: @lightspringfox My definition of “the good old days” is when staring at the BTC perp book on mex was the most profitable thing I could do.
Stats: 13 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417241629371469841
Date: 2021-07-19 21:55:10 GMT
Replying to: @JitsuBit (Tweet ID: 1417240813931794436)
Body: @JitsuBit I grew up in suburban Massachusetts.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1417223783371313158
Date: 2021-07-19 20:44:15 GMT
Quoted tweet: @BitMEX: New products hint - What do you think these have in common? 🧠 https://t.co/Q8wj125a4r
Body: They were done by FTX 2 years ago? https://t.co/w8dkb2obdF
Stats: 201 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 21 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416988767995371525
Date: 2021-07-19 05:10:23 GMT
Replying to: @calchulus (Tweet ID: 1416988445914796032)
Body: @calchulus @FTX_Official @jackshaftoes Please don't involve Tristan in any of my affairs.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416951351922151427
Date: 2021-07-19 02:41:42 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1416951081498681346)
Body: @rsalame7926 @CryptoCobain @mgnr_io @DougPolkVids @UpOnlyTV @cmsintern Ryan when I said "clean off your desk" that included trash.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416950206529118214
Date: 2021-07-19 02:37:09 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1416949380897120260)
Body: @rsalame7926 @CryptoCobain @mgnr_io @DougPolkVids @UpOnlyTV @cmsintern if you're looking for a new internship Ryan was just fired, hopefully you're better at remembering coffee orders than he is.
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416948366324367362
Date: 2021-07-19 02:29:50 GMT
Replying to: @cobie (Tweet ID: 1416919556602355717)
Body: @CryptoCobain @mgnr_io @DougPolkVids @UpOnlyTV I hate when my assistant (@rsalame7926) doesn't capitalize my name correctly.
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416943032146956290
Date: 2021-07-19 02:08:39 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsintern: @CryptoCobain @mgnr_io @DougPolkVids @UpOnlyTV FTX prediction market for ‘the s in cms’ vs @AlamedaTrabucco pls
Body: @FTX_Official https://t.co/ghtFDYqgMq
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416882272288997376
Date: 2021-07-18 22:07:12 GMT
Body: @SamuelShadrach4 @mattysino Yeah I guess this is maybe a disagreement about the value of most VC :P
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416824029747417090
Date: 2021-07-18 18:15:46 GMT
Replying to: @mattysino (Tweet ID: 1416822515129782276)
Body: @mattysino @0x4C756B65 My instinct is that
- a model where VCs never invest in competitors is seen as serving companies and being a requirement put on VCs by expectation
- in fact this doesn’t actually help the companies in important ways and therefore makes $ distribution inefficient, hurting everyone
Stats: 8 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416821153142697984
Date: 2021-07-18 18:04:20 GMT
Replying to: @0x4C756B65 (Tweet ID: 1416819462620291079)
Body: @0x4C756B65 @mattysino Right I do think that it’s likely things evolve that way, I just also think that evolution doesn’t actually serve anyone (even those who think it does in many cases).
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416820828553940994
Date: 2021-07-18 18:03:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1416820513314263040)
Body: @mattysino Like, potentially it’s a Nash equilibrium of some repeated game where we accept that all new companies care about this element of a VC’s reputation or something, but I feel like that doesn’t actually optimize locally for those companies in general? Not sure.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416820513314263040
Date: 2021-07-18 18:01:48 GMT
Replying to: @mattysino (Tweet ID: 1416819362539900935)
Body: @mattysino I suppose I don’t find the system you’re describing to compellingly be a Nash equilibrium (and FWIW I agree that crypto VC will tend to move more toward that system as it “matures” so on that level I just agree with you).
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416818811609640961
Date: 2021-07-18 17:55:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1416818691652476928)
Body: @0x4C756B65 @mattysino (by “this” I mean VCs investing in competing projects)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416818691652476928
Date: 2021-07-18 17:54:33 GMT
Replying to: @0x4C756B65 (Tweet ID: 1416818413968805889)
Body: @0x4C756B65 @mattysino What’s bad about this though? From whose perspective?
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416818087521775616
Date: 2021-07-18 17:52:09 GMT
Replying to: @mattysino (Tweet ID: 1416810910518239236)
Body: @mattysino Hm just wondering, are you positing this as bad?
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416257372704620544
Date: 2021-07-17 04:44:05 GMT
Replying to: @b420oka (Tweet ID: 1416257091749126146)
Body: @this_is_bullish Yeah sorry I didn't know this I agree this is a good change.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416257240835756038
Date: 2021-07-17 04:43:33 GMT
Replying to: @bitvibes (Tweet ID: 1416255336399482882)
Body: @bitvibes Wait OK almost anything is better:
- Home run derby
- Dodgeball with baseballs
- Race around the bases
- IDK what's wrong with a tie?
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416255848507138049
Date: 2021-07-17 04:38:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1416255774427389958)
Body: @FTX_Official If there's a sudoku anywhere near my seat I quit.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416255774427389958
Date: 2021-07-17 04:37:44 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1416253736222003202)
Body: @FTX_Official Sudoku is for sellouts.
Stats: 5 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416253600360280070
Date: 2021-07-17 04:29:05 GMT
Replying to: @malcolmda85 (Tweet ID: 1416253365470863362)
Body: @malcolmda85 Oh wow that's amazing
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416253167776542720
Date: 2021-07-17 04:27:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1416253086780297218)
Body: Like why isn't there a better tiebreaker than "maybe play another entire game"
Stats: 35 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416253086780297218
Date: 2021-07-17 04:27:03 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: The beginning of an era.
FTX is now a part of every MLB play.
This is going to be different. https://t.co/dObXYgfuR7
Body: Also can you do something about the possibility of a game lasting like 22 innings https://t.co/n2Ci8NQswo
Stats: 101 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416249047241961472
Date: 2021-07-17 04:11:00 GMT
Replying to: @earlyishadopter (Tweet ID: 1416246140341669888)
Body: @earlyishadopter I’ve never made a mistake
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416098107029278721
Date: 2021-07-16 18:11:13 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1416097036622045185)
Body: @cmsholdings Sir please dont force your bags into the closet
Stats: 37 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416097023388909571
Date: 2021-07-16 18:06:54 GMT
Replying to: @HsakaTrades (Tweet ID: 1416096335019667458)
Body: @HsakaTrades No.
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416094568458579975
Date: 2021-07-16 17:57:09 GMT
Body: To address a lot of tags I’m getting:
- Alameda is obviously buying FTT right now, I never thought we’d see a dip like this vs. the market again, best trade I know of.
- If Alameda *were* to be intentionally putting on an aggro FTT position, Binance isn’t where we’d do it. https://t.co/EkvxLeDPIT
Stats: 609 likes, 66 retweets, 94 quote tweets, 79 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416058377344487428
Date: 2021-07-16 15:33:20 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1415968063854284801)
Body: @rsalame7926 @CL207 @penisXBT agree to disagree
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1416058193935966208
Date: 2021-07-16 15:32:37 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1416057018129997824)
Body: @jackshaftoes @erikson_steven I’ll just assume you elided a “besides Trabucco’s twitter” there
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1415933582627926017
Date: 2021-07-16 07:17:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1415933389517901828)
Body: @jackshaftoes (And yes I know this is Greek but I also took Greek there, also an unfortunate amount of art history and whatnot)
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1415933389517901828
Date: 2021-07-16 07:16:41 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1415932445262852101)
Body: @jackshaftoes Yes but I only readily remembered frieze and then given context remembered the others.
Going to a high school with "Latin" in the name pays off sometimes.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1415904592622022656
Date: 2021-07-16 05:22:15 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1415901944971890689)
Body: @FTX_Official Gin then.
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1415901065606615040
Date: 2021-07-16 05:08:14 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1415892355501023232)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @FTX_Official TBH the main problem is the cushions are gone so half chairs aren’t terrible for me. https://t.co/yYnA5IQkCW
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1415890195551977473
Date: 2021-07-16 04:25:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1415890075343155205)
Body: Also I'm out of gin.
Stats: 104 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1415890075343155205
Date: 2021-07-16 04:24:34 GMT
Quoted tweet: @greg16676935420: How it started: How it’s going: https://t.co/N9eLXIZjvV
Body: Hello @FTX_Official I need some new patio furniture can you please send me some? https://t.co/7dnhlYUmHJ
Stats: 503 likes, 6 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1415850251819225090
Date: 2021-07-16 01:46:19 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1415836364088791043)
Body: @cmsholdings If you've never spent 6 months living on a mattress in someone else's zero-door dining room are you really a trader?
Stats: 45 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1415821501555625984
Date: 2021-07-15 23:52:05 GMT
Replying to: @juzybits (Tweet ID: 1415810172212109316)
Body: @BeyondMimesis @0xtuba Simping for SBF is a little passé.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1415021224695013377
Date: 2021-07-13 18:52:04 GMT
Replying to: @AltcoinPsycho (Tweet ID: 1415020946088292352)
Body: @AltcoinPsycho What did I do
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1414769445256327176
Date: 2021-07-13 02:11:35 GMT
Body: @eight8its @FTX_Official I think I'd like it more if it synergized with a few more cards but esp. in later expansions there just isn't that much trash for benefit.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1414769075306209281
Date: 2021-07-13 02:10:07 GMT
Body: @eight8its @FTX_Official That's inexplicably DXV's favorite card.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1414768152513114114
Date: 2021-07-13 02:06:27 GMT
Body: @eight8its @FTX_Official It's fun! But I've not played hundreds of hours of it like I have Dominion, and I'm only interested in tournaments I am favored in.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1414765378102722562
Date: 2021-07-13 01:55:25 GMT
Quoted tweet: @spectatorindex: JUST IN: Team USA has lost to Australia, 91-83, just days after losing to Nigeria.
Body: Quick @FTX_Official they need your sponsorship! https://t.co/FW7zghRYgr
Stats: 38 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1414764732649594883
Date: 2021-07-13 01:52:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1414764688013885440)
Body: @FTX_Official That is a complete list of my skills.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1414764688013885440
Date: 2021-07-13 01:52:41 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1414760386583142405)
Body: @FTX_Official Also please sponsor:
- Scrabble tournaments
- Crossword puzzle tournaments
- Magic: the Gathering tournaments
- Dominion tournaments
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1414764472493699074
Date: 2021-07-13 01:51:49 GMT
Replying to: @g_swedberg (Tweet ID: 1414763993957339137)
Body: @g_swedberg Every 3rd game.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1414760386092359687
Date: 2021-07-13 01:35:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1414759981077860357)
Body: Also can you get them to change it to 3 9-out innings?
Stats: 57 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1414743176108142609
Date: 2021-07-13 00:27:12 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1414730396663615489)
Body: @FTX_Official @zackvoell @SBF_Alameda I'd buy here.
Stats: 75 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1414720319382687747
Date: 2021-07-12 22:56:23 GMT
Replying to: @zackvoell (Tweet ID: 1414711688876773376)
Body: @zackvoell @SBF_Alameda It's been a while since FTX listed a contract only because of a petty Twitter argument @SBF_Alameda was having, feel like they could do more of that.
Stats: 63 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1414719758428106752
Date: 2021-07-12 22:54:09 GMT
Replying to: @bars_kind (Tweet ID: 1414718531363500044)
Body: @bars_kind @cmsholdings It's not the size of the long that counts, it's what you do with it.
Stats: 31 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1414662553255378945
Date: 2021-07-12 19:06:50 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1414661256636735488)
Body: @cmsholdings We still need you to take her down Dan.
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413958200018096129
Date: 2021-07-10 20:27:59 GMT
Replying to: @daarfield (Tweet ID: 1413941575294590976)
Body: @daarfield @austerity_sucks I don't exactly follow that accusation but I am pretty sure it is also not true xD
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413918609743638529
Date: 2021-07-10 17:50:40 GMT
Replying to: @daarfield (Tweet ID: 1413912672815534082)
Body: @daarfield @austerity_sucks We’ve denied all the claims he made many times.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413909045145075712
Date: 2021-07-10 17:12:40 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1413875890866507778)
Body: @austerity_sucks why did he go to my linkedin lol
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413689001454686211
Date: 2021-07-10 02:38:17 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1413673785463480320)
Body: @FTX_Official For a new $250k donation I will write a custom crossword with any theme.
Stats: 44 likes, 6 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413665496965074945
Date: 2021-07-10 01:04:53 GMT
Replying to: @Milkman2228 (Tweet ID: 1413661967189901314)
Body: @Milkman2228 @dsphoto1985 @art_is_found (The !!!!!!! was meant to be "rhetorical" I have done similar :P)
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413661857693401089
Date: 2021-07-10 00:50:26 GMT
Replying to: @Milkman2228 (Tweet ID: 1413646057699823619)
Body: @Milkman2228 @dsphoto1985 @art_is_found Spending $10k on a joke? I would never!!!!!!
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413622854759837697
Date: 2021-07-09 22:15:27 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1413622408586698759)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/rIL9LVWblC
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413621199209328640
Date: 2021-07-09 22:08:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1413621011124154370)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/6dSUuDS7rO
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413621011124154370
Date: 2021-07-09 22:08:07 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1413619437647896578)
Body: @cmsholdings But what if you then wanna buy when you would have wanted to sell, are you then supposed to sell
Stats: 52 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413555978318929921
Date: 2021-07-09 17:49:42 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1413549543346491392)
Body: @FTX_Official why is my poker $ still in the top ten
Stats: 30 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413323587721650178
Date: 2021-07-09 02:26:16 GMT
Replying to: @zackvoell (Tweet ID: 1413322834617712641)
Body: @zackvoell @cmsholdings Over time my answer to "is the price gonna go up or down" is gonna get more and more tautological, this answer was mere child's play.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413322407624859654
Date: 2021-07-09 02:21:34 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1413309003292188673)
Body: @cmsholdings I know this + Bayes theorem + the time series math, feel like I've never needed anything else.
Stats: 54 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413257279231586306
Date: 2021-07-08 22:02:47 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1413256110463545346)
Body: @FTX_Official @cmsholdings I don't think there are any games in Dan's house so he's not interested.
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413253598578806789
Date: 2021-07-08 21:48:09 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsholdings: Thought this was only an hour!
NOTES https://t.co/JjiL13jokl https://t.co/VyxTCfKjVb
Body: Dan I'd like to extend you an Alameda internship offer, great intern work. https://t.co/H622r1mV0x
Stats: 244 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413225132340834306
Date: 2021-07-08 19:55:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1413223581874458625)
Body: @FTX_Official @backbooked @cmsintern @UpOnlyTV If you fail at this goal you are fired.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413223581874458625
Date: 2021-07-08 19:48:53 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1413223417482862593)
Body: @FTX_Official @backbooked @cmsintern @UpOnlyTV @cmsintern plz hijack the episode and have everyone rank white claw flavors
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413223301267087360
Date: 2021-07-08 19:47:46 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1413222162752671747)
Body: @FTX_Official @backbooked @cmsintern @UpOnlyTV TBH I’m a lime diehard.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1413204754902093825
Date: 2021-07-08 18:34:04 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1413204470067040257)
Body: @jackshaftoes @rsalame7926 Ryan's a solid group 2 IMO.
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412992639910047748
Date: 2021-07-08 04:31:12 GMT
Replying to: @RampCapitalLLC (Tweet ID: 1412887603540549639)
Body: @RampCapitalLLC Ooh or map the tennis scores to actual fucking numbers
Stats: 68 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412992460725227521
Date: 2021-07-08 04:30:29 GMT
Replying to: @backbooked (Tweet ID: 1412990544557531136)
Body: @backbooked @RampCapitalLLC Feel like this weakens the field
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412988216051781635
Date: 2021-07-08 04:13:37 GMT
Replying to: @RampCapitalLLC (Tweet ID: 1412887603540549639)
Body: @RampCapitalLLC If a pitcher hits a batter instead of going to 1st he’s out.
Stats: 37 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412828245351800832
Date: 2021-07-07 17:37:57 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: The sleeping pill I took 3 hours ago is proving to be a misstep.
Body: For the curious this is where I passed out, I guess the flight took off at some point, both airplane and sleep inducing technologies are wild. https://t.co/zxQls4med2
Stats: 55 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412561282285383680
Date: 2021-07-06 23:57:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1412556749350092801)
Body: The sleeping pill I took 3 hours ago is proving to be a misstep.
Stats: 77 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412557390428389377
Date: 2021-07-06 23:41:40 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1412557049754312706)
Body: @FTX_Official sir
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412556749350092801
Date: 2021-07-06 23:39:07 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1412556352266833922)
Body: OMG they’re taking dinner orders on the runway buckle up.
Stats: 33 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412556352266833922
Date: 2021-07-06 23:37:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1412556182976348170)
Body: Can someone please revoke my access to twitter soon I can sense I’m gonna get insane.
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412556182976348170
Date: 2021-07-06 23:36:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1412554040030998529)
Body: Observation: over time people are following the insane mask rules less and less. We’ve entered “everyone I can see has it below their nose at best” territory.
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412554040030998529
Date: 2021-07-06 23:28:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1412552818716708870)
Body: People are replying with too many realistic explanations I’m worried my intent here wasn’t conveyed well
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412553176327327754
Date: 2021-07-06 23:24:55 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1412552956575158278)
Body: @cmsholdings bro
Stats: 22 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412552818716708870
Date: 2021-07-06 23:23:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1412551850088448007)
Body: I’m like 60% sure the pilot is gonna have worked long enough that they force us to deplane and get a new pilot in another hour or two and I’m currently arranging a bloc to charter private if that happens AMA
Stats: 51 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412552204461002753
Date: 2021-07-06 23:21:04 GMT
Replying to: @bjjwarlock (Tweet ID: 1412552021186531328)
Body: @bjjwarlock Big fuck up agreed
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412551850088448007
Date: 2021-07-06 23:19:39 GMT
Body: How is it possible that it was correct for this plane to board 2 hours ago and then sit on the runway because of rain they already knew about
Stats: 227 likes, 3 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 36 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412236905014611973
Date: 2021-07-06 02:28:10 GMT
Replying to: @theemilyaccount (Tweet ID: 1412231541380558849)
Body: @theemilyaccount ok i like onions now
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412236668279656451
Date: 2021-07-06 02:27:14 GMT
Replying to: @theemilyaccount (Tweet ID: 1412234232890544128)
Body: @theemilyaccount that’s more of an @SBF_Alameda complaint but note taken
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412234066057961475
Date: 2021-07-06 02:16:54 GMT
Replying to: @theemilyaccount (Tweet ID: 1412233647923646467)
Body: @theemilyaccount it would make me less likely to follow your food recs
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412233485138415626
Date: 2021-07-06 02:14:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1412233374249459717)
Body: @theemilyaccount jesus I should not be allowed on twitter rn
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1412233374249459717
Date: 2021-07-06 02:14:09 GMT
Replying to: @theemilyaccount (Tweet ID: 1412151707337961478)
Body: @theemilyaccount I have no horse in this race but would short onions they’re the worst vegetable
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1411325556197675009
Date: 2021-07-03 14:06:48 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1411311941801451520)
Body: @OrangePaulp I can confirm he did this.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1411288406261481474
Date: 2021-07-03 11:39:11 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1411178216128086020)
Body: @rsalame7926 adorable
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1411142341822500864
Date: 2021-07-03 01:58:46 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1411105600793088002)
Body: @cmsholdings ty sir
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1411103878930743298
Date: 2021-07-02 23:25:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1411102118795255810)
Body: It’s raining here but it’s still better than where I ever am. https://t.co/VacQPzVY2l
Stats: 55 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1411102118795255810
Date: 2021-07-02 23:18:56 GMT
Body: Maximizing EV sometimes involves taking short-term hits to improve upside and long-term average output.
A thread about why me being drunk on white claws during a 3% BTC move makes sense. https://t.co/3Glgt9MD1A
Stats: 236 likes, 11 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 30 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1410035033386090500
Date: 2021-06-30 00:38:43 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1410029381653864454)
Body: @cmsintern math camp is weirdly fun and involves weirdly little math
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409965328948367367
Date: 2021-06-29 20:01:44 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1409964980418486274)
Body: @SBF_Alameda Weird thing to wear “devoutly” IMO
Stats: 40 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409961359761018881
Date: 2021-06-29 19:45:58 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1409960368265478147)
Body: @cmsholdings Rename the Red Sox and you def get murdered
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409937578787106816
Date: 2021-06-29 18:11:28 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsholdings: Some thoughts on GBTC a thread
Body: But if you do the selling side of a delta-neutral trade doesn't that make you evil? https://t.co/DxJIjEQxTw
Stats: 49 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409919550355689486
Date: 2021-06-29 16:59:50 GMT
Replying to: @RetailMoney1 (Tweet ID: 1409919374480351233)
Body: @RetailMoney1 @JackFinesse Is that gif from the most popular girls in school
@Handi50419506
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409917898735321095
Date: 2021-06-29 16:53:16 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 🤝
https://t.co/BcOXRczr9F
@TomBrady @giseleofficial
Body: Are they available to meet my father, I think that would finally make up for all the sports I quit as a child https://t.co/QnOwwDyWbF
Stats: 301 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409795066537807874
Date: 2021-06-29 08:45:11 GMT
Body: My most controversial opinion is that I would be great on “Survivor”
Stats: 162 likes, 5 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 21 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409742767706710016
Date: 2021-06-29 05:17:22 GMT
Replying to: @0xElm0 (Tweet ID: 1409692343695933449)
Body: @0xElm0 @SBF_Alameda lives with a dog he loves!
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409624899899912195
Date: 2021-06-28 21:29:00 GMT
Replying to: @_jerrysun (Tweet ID: 1409624071487168516)
Body: @_jerrysun I feel like I have in spirit.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409622009181478912
Date: 2021-06-28 21:17:31 GMT
Replying to: @_jerrysun (Tweet ID: 1409619175899811847)
Body: @_jerrysun jerry no
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409617802755854336
Date: 2021-06-28 21:00:48 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1409617362408591363)
Body: @cmsholdings -30000-3-3-3-300-3-30
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409617259195101188
Date: 2021-06-28 20:58:38 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1409616084831981572)
Body: @cmsholdings Are there other ETFs you will launch? Asking for a friend.
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409234886213341186
Date: 2021-06-27 19:39:13 GMT
Replying to: @aidansparkes (Tweet ID: 1408933890564268035)
Body: @aidansparkes Yeah you can do a ton of size over a few hours, the orders come back.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409231559354318850
Date: 2021-06-27 19:26:00 GMT
Replying to: @objectivization (Tweet ID: 1409230833014218757)
Body: @objectivization Same!
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409229279032799232
Date: 2021-06-27 19:16:56 GMT
Quoted tweet: @elonmusk: https://t.co/HStnXM0zmn
Body: Freshman year the math majors I knew were all going into academia and wouldn’t dream of “selling out.”
Maybe 1/6 of them are in academia now? Half or so in finance. https://t.co/hHrkfSLQIy
Stats: 302 likes, 18 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 14 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409026597768679427
Date: 2021-06-27 05:51:34 GMT
Body: @jon_ftx When this happens (USDT > 1 because of selling which happened as recently as a few days ago), the premium only keeps up because of continued selling. In general it is true that it’s not predictive medium-term (but can be short-term).
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409024729437016069
Date: 2021-06-27 05:44:08 GMT
Body: @jon_ftx Err which one? The thing really going on is an exchange moved some coins around. I was just explaining why stablecoin inflows can be bearish — in particular, the thing I described happens all the time.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1409024303773806594
Date: 2021-06-27 05:42:27 GMT
Quoted tweet: @austerity_sucks: genuinely think the UX of sports betting is garbage
so much easier to trade continuous % like a futures contract.
its been so obvious to me for a while, and I have a feeling I know who will capitalise on this gap in the future https://t.co/H3LUgbKHra
Body: I legit hate this, it’s confusing and unnatural, I was thinking about sports betting a ton for a few months and NEVER got used to it. https://t.co/aOwrGv5jhy
Stats: 141 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 16 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1408931546711564289
Date: 2021-06-26 23:33:52 GMT
Replying to: @aidansparkes (Tweet ID: 1408922541234733059)
Body: @aidansparkes You’d think so.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1408912028824064000
Date: 2021-06-26 22:16:18 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1408911757846925317)
Body: @austerity_sucks Depends! Note that (often) USDT borrows can be pretty instant and shore up some of the timing weaknesses.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1408911553944907778
Date: 2021-06-26 22:14:25 GMT
Replying to: @__D_I_S_C_O__ (Tweet ID: 1408911138880835584)
Body: @CatholicMater Yep this too, that's just "neutral" though since strictly speaking you can also use them as collateral to leverage long.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1408911440438730754
Date: 2021-06-26 22:13:58 GMT
Replying to: @juaniisuar (Tweet ID: 1408911023638257671)
Body: @juaniisuar Yeah I mean this is usually what's actually happening every time someone notices a giant transfer :P no one wants to hear that though.
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1408867387118522368
Date: 2021-06-26 19:18:55 GMT
Replying to: @tmnxeq (Tweet ID: 1408859616864243716)
Body: @tmnxeq @austerity_sucks -EV hedges have never been my speed.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1408662666571251722
Date: 2021-06-26 05:45:26 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1408597533467762691)
Body: @cmsholdings What is ZEC backed by?
Stats: 34 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1408510200160559108
Date: 2021-06-25 19:39:35 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1408509787042578435)
Body: @FTX_Official He would be so mad.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1408507451620552714
Date: 2021-06-25 19:28:39 GMT
Replying to: @CheesyCapital (Tweet ID: 1408505984818069510)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: @FTX_Official Can FTX please sponsor the NYT crossword puzzle
Body: @CheesyCapital @FTX_Official https://t.co/ZeXgpiIjTM
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1408491159379271680
Date: 2021-06-25 18:23:55 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsintern: Don’t lose sight, #Bitcoin bears will receive FTX: Trial by Fire https://t.co/SNBrZxkpQp
Body: FTX will never be able to afford my naming rights but I implore them to try. https://t.co/A284oI6KVF
Stats: 232 likes, 9 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1408484646896095235
Date: 2021-06-25 17:58:02 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1408472934243614729)
Body: @austerity_sucks @SBF_Alameda I sold some DOGE once AMA.
(I think not collateralizing our giant futures positions more into the September 2019 crash was my worst trading decision)
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1408187548514459650
Date: 2021-06-24 22:17:29 GMT
Replying to: @degenape_club (Tweet ID: 1408186483320688640)
Body: @KeifCoin @SBF_Alameda @solana @aeyakovenko Middle name Summer.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407825373056823296
Date: 2021-06-23 22:18:19 GMT
Body: @coingecko heads up, I think something is wrong with your scrapers for Huobi's USDT-margined perp OIs, might have to do with underlying vs. "contracts" that they report OI in terms of for the two products
https://t.co/H3fhhsNQYE https://t.co/h7y6fFDnin
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407791557994893312
Date: 2021-06-23 20:03:57 GMT
Quoted tweet: @officialmcafee: I have a million followers but I'd be surprised if even 1% bother to read my tweets.
Ramblings of an old man lost in a near infinite Twitter verse - like tears in rain.
As you may guess I'm having a down day.
Body: One of my first crypto trades was setting up a bot to scrape his twitter and buy his weekly promoted coin, easy to forget how much real influence he had.
RIP. https://t.co/X0o7bvmDdo
Stats: 576 likes, 25 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 21 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407790578113290240
Date: 2021-06-23 20:00:03 GMT
Replying to: @tiotomyy (Tweet ID: 1407790450971484164)
Body: @tiotomyy @SBF_Alameda @zackvoell @NeerajKA Alameda tried that once and it didn't go great.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407788323049918464
Date: 2021-06-23 19:51:06 GMT
Replying to: @tiotomyy (Tweet ID: 1407787436512579589)
Body: @tiotomyy @SBF_Alameda @zackvoell @NeerajKA FTX: WSOP
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407782123742715908
Date: 2021-06-23 19:26:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407781865629446147)
Body: @FTX_Official REEF TXID
😈
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407781865629446147
Date: 2021-06-23 19:25:26 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1407781255207260161)
Body: @FTX_Official This is a tangent but here are the most “in-the-language” phrases containing FTX as a substring:
SOFT X-RAY
LYFT XL
Slim pickings.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407781278733135877
Date: 2021-06-23 19:23:06 GMT
Replying to: @pika0x (Tweet ID: 1407781059895259138)
Body: @pika0x @HsakaTrades I’d love this yeah
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407780828734656515
Date: 2021-06-23 19:21:19 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1407765143279202307)
Body: @FTX_Official Can FTX please sponsor the NYT crossword puzzle
Stats: 34 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407773532344381442
Date: 2021-06-23 18:52:19 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1407690523100418048)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @Adouble212 Jeopardy! doesn’t study for itself after all.
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407773240475283460
Date: 2021-06-23 18:51:10 GMT
Replying to: @Ri96077357 (Tweet ID: 1407770529629622272)
Body: @Ri96077357 People massively overstate how much options have any real role here IMO.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407772921259446282
Date: 2021-06-23 18:49:54 GMT
Replying to: @AWice (Tweet ID: 1407768639730688003)
Body: @AWice @usgoose @zackvoell @SBF_Alameda @NeerajKA *Fries: FTX
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407596560431534082
Date: 2021-06-23 07:09:06 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1407593998705901571)
Body: @rsalame7926 ryan
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407584464994127873
Date: 2021-06-23 06:21:02 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1407581635076370433)
Body: @rsalame7926 What do you consider yourself?
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500234037501952
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500222452813824)
Body: In fact, trading at the END of any of these periods is a predictably awesome trade -- the goal is finding it.
It seems like MAYBE today marks yet another paradigm switch? We'll have to wait and see -- Alameda's new long positions are sure hoping so. https://t.co/tHbbhjbcj7
Stats: 681 likes, 50 retweets, 36 quote tweets, 37 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500222452813824
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500220045217793)
Body: Also, yesterday/today had the most net liquidations of any days recently -- and a spike in liquidations has tended to help fuel reversion, as we discussed, because no one WANTED to sell down to $30k, really. Buying there is a predictably great trade, just like it always is. https://t.co/6fxkMozKPu
Stats: 299 likes, 27 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500218950582272
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:16 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500216622665728)
Body: FTX was similar -- more funding -> longs as OI net went way down. Bybit, OKEx, etc., all the important perps had similar patterns, and those patterns suggested the same thing -- people were closing for whatever reason, and aggressively selling to do so. https://t.co/3VAj1C4295
Stats: 95 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500216622665728
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:16 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500215586680833)
Body: This suggests that longs were closing one way or another -- some liquidations, yes, but also some people just ... choosing to close (also the effect is smaller than it looks cuz BTC went down, but it's still real).
Stats: 89 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500215586680833
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:16 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500213174951940)
Body: Binance's BTC perps often matter a ton, and as we can see, for a ton of this period funding was paying *longs* which we don't typically see -- and this was a period when OI was *shrinking*, and not *all* from liquidations. https://t.co/3Mu6x1WnE8
Stats: 105 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500213174951940
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500210926886915)
Body: The week-long crash we've just witnessed (culminating in the dip below $30k earlier today) is worth highlighting specifically, because it saw some weird behavior.
Specifically, let's look at some BTC perps -- here's Binance's average funding. https://t.co/poMzpKy6qI
Stats: 113 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500210926886915
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500210088013824)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Well. Crypto's crashed quite a bit in the past few days, leading up to a GIANT crash (BTC touched sub-$30k!) a few hours ago. It's ticked back up somewhat since, and started bouncing around a bit. What happened?
A thread about lemons and lemonade. https://t.co/LY8bXblDaH
Body: So really what's going on: people are over-reacting to news, liquidations are exacerbating that over-reaction, and then people are trading the other way when they realize that (and when another piece of news tells them to).
Tale as old as time!
https://t.co/uDmTTpMLdU
Stats: 154 likes, 14 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500210088013824
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500208888422403)
Body: ... and, because so much of the new buying from good news and selling from bad news was from liquidations (and therefore not organic), that means there was even MORE propensity for reversion -- no one (or, not everyone who did :P) wanted to buy $41k on June 15, so people sold.
Stats: 118 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500208888422403
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500206069805057)
Body: Furthermore, check this graph out -- it shows the net BTC buying and selling liquidations across platforms per day. The days with inflows had $100s of millions in net buying liquidations, and vice-versa -- which creates momentum (one piece of news -> days of price movement) ... https://t.co/2PQVA1aTKB
Stats: 116 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500206069805057
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500202462695428)
Body: That shit KEEPS happening -- remember all the times Elon would tweet, BTC would rally 10%, and then BTC would fall 9% over a few hours? I think the days of ping-ponging are just a drawn out version of that (see: right before the other graph when Elon caused a reverted dump). https://t.co/gosh1nOn0X
Stats: 116 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500202462695428
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500191188414468)
Body: - Can you tell me where El Salvador is on a map?
- The China FUD is new-ish, but China has always had FUD and we knew China would do *something*.
- Warren is FAR from regulating crypto away.
- We *know* instos are *in*, this TWAP doesn't move that needle.
- Saylor isn't fucked. https://t.co/gYJDlsnYn6
Stats: 138 likes, 9 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500191188414468
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:10 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500184930508800)
Body: Each of these, I think, constituted an over-reaction -- that's why I included "reversion" as an effect for all of them, because I think probably none of them *really* mattered in the first place for BTC's "value," or where people should be pricing it medium-term. https://t.co/Y9bDtu4AL6
Stats: 127 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500184930508800
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500183496118278)
Body: I think different kinds of news were dominating price action for each period.
June 9 - 11: El Salvador / reversion from Elon dump
June 11 -13: China/U.S. FUD / reversion
June 13 - 15: Saylor or something / reversion
June 15 - 23: China FUD / "Is Saylor fucked?" / reversion
Stats: 135 likes, 4 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500183496118278
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500176348958723)
Body: Stuff like this is why I make the big bucks.
No, obviously I'm being a little tongue-in-cheek, but this *is* worth highlighting -- BTC's price has been very momentum-driven on a days-long timescale. Why? https://t.co/hIDbvO3b0F
Stats: 115 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500176348958723
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500173052239878)
Body: I'll start by saying something that sounds dumb (and is :P), but hear me out. The price graph I posted is from a two week-long period, but can actually be divided into four distinct sections, as follows: https://t.co/z9z6bPYr25
Stats: 112 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500173052239878
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500166152683523)
Body: None of that is concrete, though, and people vacillate between over-stating the pieces of news they want to hear and under-stating the ones they don't. So let's break it down a little, and look at some stuff which *is* concrete. https://t.co/3aSMbdT7Sy
Stats: 126 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407500166152683523
Date: 2021-06-23 00:46:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1407500164873342981)
Body: There have been a few prevailing narratives lately:
- China FUD driving prices down, U.S. maybe to follow?
- Bitcoin is bad for the environment, or at least Elon thinks so
- Maybe with this dip, some of the institutions who bought are under water and need to sell? (Saylor, etc.)
Stats: 154 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407436947539185664
Date: 2021-06-22 20:34:51 GMT
Body: My secret plan to turn Alameda into a long-only fund gets so much easier when it's "+EV" to buy the dip so often.
Stats: 629 likes, 41 retweets, 23 quote tweets, 43 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407203145617350663
Date: 2021-06-22 05:05:49 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoKaleo (Tweet ID: 1407202209465524227)
Body: @CryptoKaleo I know :(
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407201183417049090
Date: 2021-06-22 04:58:01 GMT
Replying to: @IamNomad (Tweet ID: 1407201000759439363)
Body: @IamNomad @cubantobacco @FTX_Official But that begs the question of who the exchange is BY
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407197143618576391
Date: 2021-06-22 04:41:58 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1407193760912449547)
Body: @FTX_Official @cubantobacco Top signal.
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407193025055391746
Date: 2021-06-22 04:25:36 GMT
Replying to: @cubantobacco (Tweet ID: 1407192931757301764)
Body: @cubantobacco @FTX_Official claims it's FuTures eXchange which is BONKERS
Stats: 55 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407192568622850052
Date: 2021-06-22 04:23:47 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: Hi @elonmusk, we'll lend you our T anytime. https://t.co/uH83GBS6WN
Body: Honestly the name would make more sense if FTX lost the T, then it could actually stand for Futures Xchange. https://t.co/9mSwJXaNdM
Stats: 104 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407115027039997953
Date: 2021-06-21 23:15:40 GMT
Replying to: @ThetaMentality (Tweet ID: 1407058680479092736)
Body: @ThetaMentality @SBF_Alameda I was doing my shitposting internally, don't worry I'm never quiet.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1407099061509890049
Date: 2021-06-21 22:12:13 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1407097508539555850)
Body: @cmsintern Shooting your shot, gotta respect it.
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1406802781575385092
Date: 2021-06-21 02:34:54 GMT
Quoted tweet: @choffstein: 🎧 S4E8 with @AlamedaTrabucco
- The importance of the ↔️perpetual swap
- The BTC-YEN-USD ♻️triangle trade
- @elonmusk and 🐶meme tweets
- 📦Block time vs ⏱clock time
- Evolution 🦠→🐒 risk
- 🧾Making markets on FTX
- Navigating 🏦regulatory risk
https://t.co/BTAE9KsKt7 https://t.co/OXHEplqVEz
Body: Really fun podcast to record, @choffstein is a great host. https://t.co/dGXUbHZp2T
Stats: 127 likes, 14 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1406334760591314945
Date: 2021-06-19 19:35:10 GMT
Replying to: @paoloardoino (Tweet ID: 1406334163742085123)
Body: @paoloardoino Weird, Alameda makes money doing the opposite.
Stats: 72 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1406105343487184900
Date: 2021-06-19 04:23:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1406104859842019335)
Body: Just depends where you mark to.
Stats: 38 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1406104859842019335
Date: 2021-06-19 04:21:37 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: uh 9 trillion dollar trades will be a bit harder but if we can spread it out over a few days I'm sure https://t.co/O0ovAqbqtF can handle it https://t.co/9DpczThHM2
Body: We can do this in one day if it comes to that. https://t.co/9YOfi0S00V
Stats: 92 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405647854484344835
Date: 2021-06-17 22:05:38 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoNormanu (Tweet ID: 1405641347869155329)
Body: @CryptoNormanu You're exposing my dark secret.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405640344750886919
Date: 2021-06-17 21:35:48 GMT
Replying to: @tonyresearch (Tweet ID: 1405640209279057924)
Body: @tonyresearch tony
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405638375256723456
Date: 2021-06-17 21:27:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1405636941144489987)
Body: Yep turning notifs right off for this one.
Stats: 125 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405636941144489987
Date: 2021-06-17 21:22:16 GMT
Body: Q: Why do gay men make good traders?
A: They can always tell the top from the bottom.
Stats: 602 likes, 25 retweets, 12 quote tweets, 65 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405635966207873030
Date: 2021-06-17 21:18:24 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1405600494840553475)
Body: @jackshaftoes @carolinecapital Does this count as cyberbullying?
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405633404985430018
Date: 2021-06-17 21:08:13 GMT
Replying to: @luxetveritas18 (Tweet ID: 1405633070527561737)
Body: @luxetveritas_il @liqmex None of whom were bidding above $40k :P
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405630559691239425
Date: 2021-06-17 20:56:55 GMT
Replying to: @lightspringfox (Tweet ID: 1405628497838567425)
Body: @lightspringfox @cmsholdings @Fiskantes @mgnr_io @MichaelJBurryMD It would need to be enough to justify our time (trader time, legal time, settlement, bookkeeping, etc.) which would require either a large amortized premium or more size than I'm guessing is realistic.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405630035654971393
Date: 2021-06-17 20:54:50 GMT
Body: @liqmex People sold.
Stats: 52 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405565699955650567
Date: 2021-06-17 16:39:11 GMT
Replying to: @RRunner144 (Tweet ID: 1405549441902317569)
Body: @RRunner144 @StackedCrypto @SizeChad I’m fun.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405441173326426118
Date: 2021-06-17 08:24:22 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1405440548681379840)
Body: @FTX_Official @carolinecapital @jackshaftoes She’s charting nonstop yeah.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405409493538590720
Date: 2021-06-17 06:18:29 GMT
Replying to: @Fiskantes (Tweet ID: 1405408920747888643)
Body: @Fiskantes @mgnr_io @MichaelJBurryMD @cmsholdings If there’s enough size please contact our OTC desk!
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405408265131892741
Date: 2021-06-17 06:13:36 GMT
Replying to: @Fiskantes (Tweet ID: 1405406591160029186)
Body: @Fiskantes @mgnr_io @MichaelJBurryMD @cmsholdings Can someone who thinks an asset will always be the same price be called its “maxi”
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405061711296483328
Date: 2021-06-16 07:16:31 GMT
Replying to: @crosscoins (Tweet ID: 1405059716296839169)
Body: @crosscoins I agree it's getting more important over time, and is worth sometimes monitoring. I think that timescale matters a lot, and the short timescales are most of what I am talking about.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405058656656236548
Date: 2021-06-16 07:04:23 GMT
Replying to: @alex_bcg (Tweet ID: 1405058387134582784)
Body: @alex_bcg There's no private info being used here.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405058370663374851
Date: 2021-06-16 07:03:14 GMT
Body: deleting dating apps to meet someone the old-fashioned way (buying the BTC he forgot he mined in 2014 at a 2% discount so he doesn't need to make a Coinbase account)
Stats: 219 likes, 7 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405056549970579458
Date: 2021-06-16 06:56:00 GMT
Replying to: @alex_bcg (Tweet ID: 1405056267480076288)
Body: @alex_bcg Yeah I guess I'm taking issue with your use of the "f" word, I think it's pretty squarely not correct here.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405056330017107968
Date: 2021-06-16 06:55:08 GMT
Replying to: @AsiaEconInfo (Tweet ID: 1405055787718766599)
Body: @AsiaEconInfo I think the idea that a risk-on asset like BTC was gonna be a store of value / flight to safety asset was POSSIBLE to have before March 12, 2020, but the market spoke that day.
Which isn't bad! Many productive assets are very reasonably seen as risky but are still "useful."
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405055971169234945
Date: 2021-06-16 06:53:42 GMT
Replying to: @alex_bcg (Tweet ID: 1405055565454262272)
Body: @alex_bcg This is sort of a weird framing to me? Running a study to determine trades which are good to do on average and then doing them until they're not good anymore is just like ... what quant trading is?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405055632047165441
Date: 2021-06-16 06:52:22 GMT
Replying to: @burner65559266 (Tweet ID: 1405055417760223233)
Body: @burner65559266 I think I do from my last job but I'm not gonna lie I have no idea how to check.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405055165489500161
Date: 2021-06-16 06:50:30 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Honestly? Crypto traders don’t give a shit about what happens when the traditional markets aren’t going crazy. I literally couldn’t tell you which direction SPY moved .3% in (or whatever) yesterday.
Body: I guess it was down, my 401K is quaking. https://t.co/8FNs9qBgqB https://t.co/PFTEZwSmYL
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405054105865711618
Date: 2021-06-16 06:46:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1405053793968922625)
Body: There's a TON to be made by watching for this stuff -- often the monitoring is most of the battle because it's critical to be ready to do these trades, and you've only got a few hours or something until the market catches on and the relationship is too fast, or arbed out.
Stats: 36 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405053793968922625
Date: 2021-06-16 06:45:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1405053562946605060)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: BTW, while SPY correlation got pretty shit on the vaccine news, a new contender arose -- gold! For some reason, the world decided today that BTC was gonna follow gold instead of SPY. I was gonna write a thread about it, but I honestly have no idea why this happened -- any ideas? https://t.co/wlhUeU1lrr
Body: And here's the day (and really it was kinda just one day, super weird) when gold took up the mantle.
https://t.co/7Hc7UPHVZl
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405053562946605060
Date: 2021-06-16 06:44:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1405052433978429443)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: You can line the downturn in BTC from last night up with the one in SPY from yesterday’s trading day (note that the graph skips over periods when the U.S. markets are closed). But one thing does not line up -- BTC was down WAY more than SPY. What gives? https://t.co/VqvaEj3fvA
Body: Here's an instance from September where SPY mattered -- for the past year+ BTC developed a real SPY beta basically every time there was big COVID news which had market-wide impact.
https://t.co/AkvxVvqW7x
Stats: 13 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405052433978429443
Date: 2021-06-16 06:39:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1405052433089273858)
Body: So in calm macro environments like we’re in now? Little correlation. But the next time there’s a big move (in SPY, in oil, in whatever the market ALL cares about) — watch for this, it’ll come back.
Stats: 47 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405052433089273858
Date: 2021-06-16 06:39:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1405052432111992838)
Body: (And this coincides with high liquidation environments which means crypto will actually have a >>1 beta, see March 12.)
Stats: 24 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405052432111992838
Date: 2021-06-16 06:39:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1405052431147274241)
Body: But when SPY crashes 20%? Yeah, we’ve gotta follow it. And because we’re following it, our trades will follow it — not all the time, but enough for a correlation to exist.
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405052431147274241
Date: 2021-06-16 06:39:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1405052429553467395)
Body: Honestly? Crypto traders don’t give a shit about what happens when the traditional markets aren’t going crazy. I literally couldn’t tell you which direction SPY moved .3% in (or whatever) yesterday.
Stats: 33 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1405035653000142855
Date: 2021-06-16 05:32:58 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1405013732778987520)
Body: @OrangePaulp euclid was ROBBED
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1404682769939107840
Date: 2021-06-15 06:10:44 GMT
Replying to: @Dat_Aspinall (Tweet ID: 1404681139424350210)
Body: @Dat_Aspinall @OrangePaulp this doesn't sound great
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1404679907934838784
Date: 2021-06-15 05:59:22 GMT
Replying to: @OrangePaulp (Tweet ID: 1404676870600376321)
Body: @OrangePaulp are you ok
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1404192901832183811
Date: 2021-06-13 21:44:11 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1404180732914847748)
Body: @cmsholdings Do you have bearish friends, that's like if I were friends with an Evangelical.
Stats: 44 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1403814589200961540
Date: 2021-06-12 20:40:54 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1403813654362038272)
Body: @rsalame7926 I'm happy you started using it again, was a rough few months for us!
Stats: 40 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1403094647321231360
Date: 2021-06-10 21:00:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1403094089239654400)
Body: @cmsholdings can our moms hang out
Stats: 46 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1403094089239654400
Date: 2021-06-10 20:57:53 GMT
Body: https://t.co/X6cMy0j2Ge
Stats: 301 likes, 9 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 20 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1403073217066008577
Date: 2021-06-10 19:34:57 GMT
Replying to: @tonyresearch (Tweet ID: 1403073134119448577)
Body: @tonyresearch They’re frugal.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402816440357425157
Date: 2021-06-10 02:34:37 GMT
Replying to: @BobbyMcGibbs (Tweet ID: 1402815501814861826)
Body: @BobbyMcGibbs @JaySinh68681549 TBH I used this number because it allowed me to mention she became a billionaire in one of the scenarios and that sounded flashy :P I agree in principle, apologies.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402798422856331268
Date: 2021-06-10 01:23:01 GMT
Replying to: @nope_its_lily (Tweet ID: 1402797963143905288)
Body: @nope_its_lily Not really, just meant to illustrate the difference between someone who makes generally risky investments with higher EV (per some "edge" they have) and someone who does not.
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402798145973592069
Date: 2021-06-10 01:21:55 GMT
Replying to: @saah1lk (Tweet ID: 1402797623980048391)
Body: @saah1lk Yeah of course, I am only arguing against "volatile = bad," volatile and EV = X compared to stable and EV = X clearly you want the latter. There are always trade-offs but disregarding an investment because it's volatile is really bad.
Stats: 3 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402795748501037056
Date: 2021-06-10 01:12:23 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1402795536558735364)
Body: @cmsholdings @masspirates I'll tell my family to vote for you if you promise free guac on all MA burritos.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402795293901430786
Date: 2021-06-10 01:10:35 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1402794900370952195)
Body: @cmsholdings What party are you running for
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402793840025608192
Date: 2021-06-10 01:04:48 GMT
Replying to: @BobbyMcGibbs (Tweet ID: 1402792400964177920)
Body: @BobbyMcGibbs FWIW it's identical regardless of the annual income used, just scale down.
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402789726596132864
Date: 2021-06-10 00:48:28 GMT
Replying to: @gianni_renzi_ (Tweet ID: 1402789474405396482)
Body: @dexxon6 LOL yeah sorry I'm on my (mac) laptop and had to do this in Google sheets, many apologies.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402786857302183940
Date: 2021-06-10 00:37:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1402786843280637954)
Body: "BTC is risky -> no one should hold BTC until we somehow regulate it and ... make it less risky" is an infuriating narrative to me not because it's anti-BTC but because it ignores what makes an investment good.
Everyone, please: make your investments good! https://t.co/IIRKkGd5Ss
Stats: 295 likes, 18 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402786843280637954
Date: 2021-06-10 00:37:00 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1402786840684335110)
Body: Overall, I think it's easy to write off a risky bet because sometimes you lose a lot of money and people are naturally loss-averse. But you get to make more than one bet in your life, and if your bets are good on average, even if just barely, you'll *usually* win long-term.
Stats: 145 likes, 10 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402786840684335110
Date: 2021-06-10 00:36:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1402786831855341568)
Body: And I think it's hard to argue that she should not do it for at least a lot of her life. Til 60 is maybe extreme, but note she can always just allocate 1/10 of her portfolio to it, or find 10 unrelated things like it and do them all.
(Or she can spin up a 2/20 fund to do it :P) https://t.co/K5ELUbfmrM
Stats: 60 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402786831855341568
Date: 2021-06-10 00:36:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1402786827870687232)
Body: Let's look at something more extreme -- each year Beth has a 50/50 chance to double up or lose 50%.
Now she's a multi-billionaire a lot of the time, but also ends up with less money than Adam more than half the time! In EV, this is great. https://t.co/XxThjBSBYh
Stats: 71 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402786827870687232
Date: 2021-06-10 00:36:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1402786825664557057)
Body: (Note this all assumes non-adapting strategy and non-diversification, both of which Beth can and probably will do -- adapting lets her do better stuff as it comes up, diversifying makes risk of ruin way lower).
Stats: 51 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402786825664557057
Date: 2021-06-10 00:36:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1402786817011683328)
Body: So trading off a decent chance per year at loss for 2x the annual EV will be worse 1/6 of the time, but WAY better a ton of the time, too. Seems like a pretty good investment to me! And her probability to end with less than $10m is just 3%. https://t.co/IKEcCo4wLV
Stats: 117 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402786817011683328
Date: 2021-06-10 00:36:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1402786813350060035)
Body: I ran a simulation to answer that (screenshot attached). She has more money than him 83% of the time -- but look at that EV! Nearly 3 times as high as Adam's (that's actually possible to get without the simulation because of linearity of expectation, but 100k runs is enough). https://t.co/Z34WNhVSHx
Stats: 100 likes, 6 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402786813350060035
Date: 2021-06-10 00:36:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1402786811022221312)
Body: What about Beth? Her EV on earnings each year is higher than Adam's, of course, but let's dig deeper. Let's look at her distribution of outcomes by age 60.
One natural question: what are the chances she has more money than Adam does?
Stats: 52 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402786811022221312
Date: 2021-06-10 00:36:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1402786806819553282)
Body: By age 60, Adam will always have around $20m put away (ignoring taxes and expenses or whatever, but this is just a comparative exercise so it's OK to ignore thise) -- there's no uncertainty here. https://t.co/4p4FjV4Klg
Stats: 45 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402786806819553282
Date: 2021-06-10 00:36:51 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Volatile asset = not a good investment is a common fallacy — likely not a great idea for retirees to put all their $ in, but high risk high reward is the prototypically best thing for young people to invest in. https://t.co/DFLw29nBjJ
Body: Let's look at two investors, Adam and Beth. Both are 25 years old, both make $200k/year (lump sum) and expect to keep doing so for their careers (not realistic, but let's just use that for now). Adam invests it all in a 5%/year fund, Beth's fund is 50/50 to make +30% and -10%. https://t.co/nATd4PxWGI
Stats: 1009 likes, 225 retweets, 53 quote tweets, 52 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402777890568114178
Date: 2021-06-10 00:01:26 GMT
Quoted tweet: @CL207: thx to giga chad otc service at FTX i was able to fomo into a levered position without even having a computer lmao https://t.co/DqlyPG4IFJ https://t.co/bdx0RSWMMH
Body: Best OTC team around! https://t.co/a8t49wczlX
Stats: 97 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402755585175539712
Date: 2021-06-09 22:32:48 GMT
Quoted tweet: @BloombergTV: Sen. Elizabeth Warren says cryptocurrencies need more regulation.
“What’s happening right now…it’s a Wild West out there," she tells @TheStalwart https://t.co/hytD79iSTX https://t.co/umEmcQ7la9
Body: Volatile asset = not a good investment is a common fallacy — likely not a great idea for retirees to put all their $ in, but high risk high reward is the prototypically best thing for young people to invest in. https://t.co/DFLw29nBjJ
Stats: 899 likes, 113 retweets, 15 quote tweets, 45 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402423552591106051
Date: 2021-06-09 00:33:25 GMT
Replying to: @JoeyWong_t3ch (Tweet ID: 1402145411289079809)
Body: @JoeyWong_t3ch *boy
And no.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402423045818437637
Date: 2021-06-09 00:31:24 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1402420948096229387)
Body: @cmsholdings @hxrobtc TBH I'd marry Roomba.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402406022132617217
Date: 2021-06-08 23:23:45 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1402402346538311681)
Body: @cmsintern @0xtuba @rsalame7926 Calling Dan.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402400725326458881
Date: 2021-06-08 23:02:42 GMT
Quoted tweet: @BrettHarrison88: 1/ Now that I’ve been President of @ftx_us, and a member of the crypto industry for ::checks notes:: almost a month, I’m taking account of my experiences thus far, and I have many reasons to be grateful and optimistic.
Body: The kinds of work in crypto and tradfi are similar, but they really do just feel night and day in the moment (and results-wise, too). https://t.co/FQKzvXlQtF
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402361482327695362
Date: 2021-06-08 20:26:46 GMT
Quoted tweet: @rsalame7926: I can feel that soon I will not need a bank account and I'm so ready for that day
Body: Was told — standing inside a Chase bank — that none of my three (3) valid forms of ID would suffice to withdraw $5k cash and I had to wait a week.
The Bitcoin ATM next door took 5 minutes. https://t.co/nzAzPhaXKB
Stats: 504 likes, 39 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 39 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402323879750619138
Date: 2021-06-08 17:57:21 GMT
Replying to: @vibes8760 (Tweet ID: 1402281484824682497)
Quoted tweet: @zackvoell: “If there are way more buyers than sellers, that will dictate that the price will go up over the long term.” - @AlamedaTrabucco on stage
Body: @Aurelius8760 https://t.co/GKhLGS3I5X
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1402070511346200576
Date: 2021-06-08 01:10:33 GMT
Replying to: @ACthecollector (Tweet ID: 1401935524626145282)
Body: @ac_advanced @rsalame7926 Ryan for sure fuming you called me fun and approachable in the same sentence as him.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401951485496283142
Date: 2021-06-07 17:17:35 GMT
Replying to: @nojob_capital (Tweet ID: 1401951291576754192)
Body: @nojob_capital @SBF_Alameda aggro
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401947423866605581
Date: 2021-06-07 17:01:27 GMT
Replying to: @FractalKaleido1 (Tweet ID: 1401946703675203587)
Body: @FractalKaleido1 That is not what I was referring to at all LOL, I was referring to losing $ for the data and model reasons I mentioned in the same thread.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401941039439613952
Date: 2021-06-07 16:36:05 GMT
Body: Thanks airport Pizza Hut I did need to be knocked down a peg. https://t.co/G1c5unu9wK
Stats: 261 likes, 4 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401932102535417864
Date: 2021-06-07 16:00:34 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1401763401064349700)
Body: @rsalame7926 It wasn't the most intense fight I saw in Miami yesterday and the other one was free.
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927795006132228
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927792850255873)
Body: Overall I was just having fun the entire time and also achieving a lot (work- and catharsis-wise), which is something I was worried wouldn't happen. And I feel like if I enjoyed this, probably many other people will enjoy stuff like it in the future.
Hope to see you there!
Stats: 46 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927792850255873
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927781647368195)
Body: Also, yesterday @ledgerstatus (who I had just met) gave me a pair of pants from his suitcase because I was wearing shorts and needed pants. https://t.co/UzqYrMofNj
Stats: 129 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 14 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927781647368195
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927766493253633)
Body: I literally missed two flights (one intentionally, one less so) out of here to extend hanging out with some people, and ended up having a weirdly great night as a result. Sitting in the airport right now writing this on no sleep isn't awesome but that's the price you pay. https://t.co/cFmLV7bS9H
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927766493253633
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927765385957381)
Body: (Which isn't to say elements of this culture aren't toxic for some people, just that an axis along which I guessed there would be toxicity pleasantly surprised me.)
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927765385957381
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927764370993153)
Body: This is specific to me, but crypto's bro-y culture can feel alienating -- or at least feel like it's going to be, which sort of pre-alienates. That barely happened, I've actually never felt more like "one of the guys" than I did at points this weekend (with a few sets of people).
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927764370993153
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927762810654726)
Body: Tons of parties, spending time outside, witnessing a historic boxing anti-climax live, and chilling with lots of awesome people for 4 days straight is always gonna be great -- that they were also generally people sharing in the same sort of euphoria I was made it even better.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927762810654726
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927754807980036)
Body: PLAY
Mostly, the whole trip was just really fun. Getting to meet great people I'd never met + see lots of friends I'd not seen in ages (+ @rsalame7926 which was decidedly meh) was a blast, and the nonstop action (outside the conference itself) has been much-needed lately. https://t.co/KWj1FlbfYi
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927754807980036
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927753725845516)
Body: And being around so many people who were feeling similar things has a magnifying effect -- and also highlighted just impactful this might actually be.
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927753725845516
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927751888744449)
Body: (Which isn't an especially useful thought honestly :P given that it's true for everything ever, the magnitude of late have just made it feel weighty or something.)
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927751888744449
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927744712327168)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: I’m just a kid who liked math and playing games and got lucky that combining the two with a once in 1000 lifetimes opportunity led me here. https://t.co/skPqwwDdsF
Body: More generally I kept having opportunities to reflect on how much my life has changed since I started trading crypto, and the ways in which all of this stuff can be directly tied to like, a few important decisions and pieces of great luck.
https://t.co/DZvoBo3Rhx https://t.co/o5cr8fT0YW
Stats: 22 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927743143546883
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927735430221828)
Body: These efforts have led to incredible results -- Alameda has managed to be WAY more profitable than we ever were pre-FTX on a substantially larger capital base all while no longer really having bad problems with MMing, and I don't need to explain FTX's success. https://t.co/WHGiHpIVOG
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927735430221828
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927734264307725)
Body: It took Alameda a lot of work to both do this and fill in the gaps left by our team shrinking so much -- we're still playing catch-up, in some ways. And of course the FTX team has worked extraordinarily hard for the past few years, as well.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927734264307725
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927732636889094)
Body: This was WAY more intense than any of our other market making obligations -- we wanted to provide amazing liquidity from day one, and it turns out that doing that without knowing you have the fastest data and best models for EVERYTHING is a recipe for disaster.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927732636889094
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927719252803590)
Body: FEELINGS
When @SBF_Alameda and co. started working basically full-time on FTX a few years ago, it was honestly rough going for a while for Alameda. Our trading team was small, our dev team was smaller, and we had the new giant challenge of market making on FTX. https://t.co/mPVfker6sF
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927719252803590
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927717944188932)
Body: There's nothing like seeing capable and hard-working people working hard at what they care about, and it inspires me to keep trying to do the same thing.
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927717944188932
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927716660813837)
Quoted tweet: @BrettHarrison88: 1/ Farewell Miami, thank you for an awesome #Bitcoin2021 ! So grateful for the opportunity to spend time face-to-face with @FTX_Official and @ftx_us teams, and of course @SBF_Alameda .
Body: To single out just one such interaction, Brett (FTX US's new-ish president) posted some thoughts on the conference here, too -- meeting and learning about his plans for the future was a definite highlight, he's super smart and has great ideas.
https://t.co/WsEmBPD7rd
Stats: 17 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927716660813837
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927715247251458)
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 7) and I met some members of our own team in person for the first time.
I watched @bringmedabir watch the fruits of his labor swirl in confetti and flames at FTX Arena, and hung out with @TSMReginald on a boat.
I strategized with Dan and Alfarida and @Brett_FTXUS.
Body: This was true for people outside of Alameda and FTX and BlockFolio and Solana and the other projects/teams I already cared a ton about, but I found meeting the people from those teams the most fun.
https://t.co/15Z05TSCWm
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927715247251458
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927708343508992)
Body: VIGOR
It's a little hard to explain this, but I'm more excited about crypto than I have been in a long time. Seeing so many people working on things:
- passionately
- skillfully
- which I'm also passionate about
Had a stronger effect on me than I expected. https://t.co/vQFSUBApF3
Stats: 53 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927708343508992
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927707294896135)
Body: And our panel went well! And spurred a bunch of people to come up to me throughout the rest of the weekend to ask stuff, which I always enjoy.
Stats: 29 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927707294896135
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927705357164550)
Body: The counterparties we have strong relationships with tend to
- make both sides more $
- involve way less of a settlement headache
- be more fun to participate in
So strengthening those relationships is really great, and I'm not *totally* useless at this.
Stats: 32 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927705357164550
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927698402906118)
Body: WORK
Honestly, I didn't do that much work. @rsalame7926 asked me to sound like a nerd to some people a few times to lend credibility, but mostly I tried to meet a bunch of our OTC/etc. counterparties without a specific agenda.
And this still felt productive to me! https://t.co/kVmmo3M1A7
Stats: 36 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927698402906118
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927697455013890)
Body: I was pretty sure the perfect timing + chance to speak meant this was the only conference I'd ever attend, but now I doubt it.
A thread about being wrong and not really making money but "generating personal value" or something.
Stats: 44 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927697455013890
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401927695290806272)
Body: How wrong I was! I enjoyed basically the entire trip -- it managed to be productive, invigorating, sentimental, and super fun all at once.
Stats: 64 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401927695290806272
Date: 2021-06-07 15:43:03 GMT
Body: I'll be honest -- I was dreading this conference. I'm not great at meeting strangers, I dislike much of networking, I was vaguely concerned that crypto culture might be toxic in person, and I'm not wild about public speaking. Also, Miami is so hot. https://t.co/BVBF5WZJqN
Stats: 169 likes, 5 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401911414596456449
Date: 2021-06-07 14:38:22 GMT
Body: @SBF_Alameda how many flights do you think it was correct for me to miss leaving Miami, and why is the answer "2"
Stats: 58 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401862986906677249
Date: 2021-06-07 11:25:56 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1401677697760194568)
Body: @FTX_Official @SBF_Alameda @cmsintern
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401859744948789255
Date: 2021-06-07 11:13:03 GMT
Replying to: @RichartRuddie (Tweet ID: 1401825208575664132)
Body: @RichartRuddie Yeah probably!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401821204932186114
Date: 2021-06-07 08:39:54 GMT
Body: Am I this fight’s target audience https://t.co/IiNPQhLo1w
Stats: 91 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401706138379431938
Date: 2021-06-07 01:02:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1401706090266599429)
Body: who was this for
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401706090266599429
Date: 2021-06-07 01:02:29 GMT
Body: Mayweather? More like Aprilweather!!!
Stats: 133 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401594883513651203
Date: 2021-06-06 17:40:35 GMT
Body: Am I being punked https://t.co/bloCFKF8Yc
Stats: 678 likes, 4 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 24 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401564299772973058
Date: 2021-06-06 15:39:03 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1401553653333438464)
Body: @cmsintern @SBF_Alameda @cmsholdings @cmsholdings heads up @cmsintern bought 5000 BTC from me for $60k because you told him “selling isn’t allowed,” said we’d settle Monday.
Stats: 51 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401325500509966343
Date: 2021-06-05 23:50:09 GMT
Quoted tweet: @fintechfrank: @lawmaster and I remember people in 2019 were spreading this rumor that alameda/ftx were on the verge of collapsing because of a trade that went wrong - there were other weird rumors as well.
Body: I love these, the logic is always we lost money per some leaderboard on an exchange which hosted half of a hedged spread we put on. https://t.co/k60kXI6gAC
Stats: 68 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401297697303302147
Date: 2021-06-05 21:59:40 GMT
Replying to: @Brautser (Tweet ID: 1401295992847282187)
Body: @braut_david @CaitlinLong_ @FTX_Official @SBF_Alameda Leverage generally, totally agreed.
100x+ leverage is really rarely good (not never! just pretty rarely).
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401288335751057416
Date: 2021-06-05 21:22:28 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1401287958120992770)
Body: @FTX_Official FTX twitter never doubles down on its 🔥
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401263294971797507
Date: 2021-06-05 19:42:58 GMT
Quoted tweet: @BitcoinBirch: I’m just a kid from the neighborhood building products I love, on stage with absolute galaxy brains
LFG 🔥 https://t.co/B5L4kHm0ty
Body: I’m just a kid who liked math and playing games and got lucky that combining the two with a once in 1000 lifetimes opportunity led me here. https://t.co/skPqwwDdsF
Stats: 487 likes, 9 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 18 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401233072377499648
Date: 2021-06-05 17:42:52 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1401232800553000963)
Body: @austerity_sucks Yeah, was just aiming for the “IDK it’s a function of net buying demand” line.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401231229266112518
Date: 2021-06-05 17:35:33 GMT
Quoted tweet: @zackvoell: “If there are way more buyers than sellers, that will dictate that the price will go up over the long term.” - @AlamedaTrabucco on stage
Body: I never know how to dance around BTC isn’t definitely going up” in front of a crowd of the world’s biggest bulls. https://t.co/irFk0iLpHl
Stats: 152 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401230942316937222
Date: 2021-06-05 17:34:24 GMT
Quoted tweet: @Statik_Kill: @BitcoinBirch @AlamedaTrabucco @yanosov LFG https://t.co/zH7f4ma6Zo
Body: This stage was so hot I didn’t stop sweating. https://t.co/dHbzN3DW5I
Stats: 43 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401204114583953420
Date: 2021-06-05 15:47:48 GMT
Replying to: @BitcoinBirch (Tweet ID: 1401198081979342856)
Body: @BitcoinBirch I wonder if one stage can handle that much alpha.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1401194324172419076
Date: 2021-06-05 15:08:54 GMT
Quoted tweet: @BitcoinBirch: Today at noon I’ll be speaking on the Stacking Sats stage alongside legends like @AlamedaTrabucco & @yanosov
Come by if you’re at the conference🙏
Body: Excited for this! https://t.co/XeVByecDC4
Stats: 53 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400962430797332481
Date: 2021-06-04 23:47:26 GMT
Replying to: @CariniBlock (Tweet ID: 1400962308566835201)
Body: @CariniBlock I admit that freely!
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400959589655457793
Date: 2021-06-04 23:36:09 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Surreal https://t.co/gfotyeAWiw
Body: At least 3 people who’ve been around Alameda forever cried at this. https://t.co/OxdMBKHdsI
Stats: 580 likes, 14 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 23 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400950261305249805
Date: 2021-06-04 22:59:05 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1400867068753367041)
Body: @cmsholdings put @cmsintern on the boat and set it to sea
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400931592625926149
Date: 2021-06-04 21:44:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400929665552994315)
Body: Surreal https://t.co/gfotyeAWiw
Stats: 236 likes, 5 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400929665552994315
Date: 2021-06-04 21:37:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400929129357352961)
Body: I love beating witness to all this and to sharing in it to whatever extent I do, but more than that I love watching my friend @SBF_Alameda fucking kill it every time:
Stats: 225 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400929129357352961
Date: 2021-06-04 21:35:07 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400927914686885892)
Body: “Being able to get here is synonymous with being able to get where we’re going” https://t.co/bilw06n0tR
Stats: 162 likes, 5 retweets, 12 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400927914686885892
Date: 2021-06-04 21:30:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400926390074159110)
Body: “I may be the shortest one here” https://t.co/aq5qozxn7c
Stats: 74 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400926390074159110
Date: 2021-06-04 21:24:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400925664677670917)
Body: “We host the world’s best athletes and the world’s best entertainers, and we’re thrilled to welcome FTX” https://t.co/ttVDkaW9fd
Stats: 79 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400925664677670917
Date: 2021-06-04 21:21:21 GMT
Body: Let’s just say @SBF_Alameda was lied to about what “Tradjng Day” was gonna be https://t.co/D6P3R1CYOD
Stats: 363 likes, 12 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400559849616953344
Date: 2021-06-03 21:07:43 GMT
Quoted tweet: @megstalter: Corporations this month: https://t.co/s2zFizLuqe
Body: @FTX_Official please lower my fees https://t.co/HM1uWZqwEM
Stats: 17 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400545531852734465
Date: 2021-06-03 20:10:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400545467944013824)
Body: Is this good content?
Stats: 81 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 14 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400545467944013824
Date: 2021-06-03 20:10:35 GMT
Body: stacking SATs https://t.co/rhYBAydMEE
Stats: 235 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400541310336094208
Date: 2021-06-03 19:54:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400541303222509575)
Body: I pride myself now on updating quickly as new information comes up — I think it’s maybe even my primary value-add, or at least adjacent to it — and that involves abandoning priors much more quickly than I used to. Which is hard and unnatural, but important.
Stats: 71 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400541303222509575
Date: 2021-06-03 19:54:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400541283521896448)
Body: A profitable lesson, too! It’s let me make great trades around futures expirations, more recent big events, Elon Musk’s tweets, bad news from governments, other exchange listings, USDT, etc. etc. Things DO evolve, just most slowly than I wanted them to. https://t.co/BXt9gcrOa3
Stats: 57 likes, 2 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400541283521896448
Date: 2021-06-03 19:53:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400541280124407817)
Body: Eventually I connected the dots — this market worked differently, lots of the sophisticated firms aren’t in the game yet, more $ in the system than I’m used to ISN’T quantitative, etc. But it took me too long, and that was a huge lesson for me.
Stats: 64 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400541280124407817
Date: 2021-06-03 19:53:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400541270603440134)
Body: This was a really dangerous instance of me leveling myself and deciding that the obvious play is TOO obvious and couldn’t be right. It’s also an example of being way too clingy to one’s priors in the face of lots of evidence.
And it cost me and Alameda a bunch of money.
Stats: 70 likes, 1 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400541270603440134
Date: 2021-06-03 19:53:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400541250609156100)
Body: I used to fuck this up all the time! I ignored a study that said coins rally between Coinbase announcing a listing and the listing itself — surely the world will know that arb it out. BTC rallies into a specific holiday every year? We’re not the only ones who know that, duh. https://t.co/7fpfp5OPMZ
Stats: 52 likes, 0 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400541250609156100
Date: 2021-06-03 19:53:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400541245236203526)
Body: Turns out this in fact DID always used to happen — hence the common “buy the news, sell the event” advice. And honestly, it still does USUALLY happen! For all kinds of events: forks, halvings, major exchange listings, etc. all have (decreasingly, in some cases) predictable moves.
Stats: 51 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400541245236203526
Date: 2021-06-03 19:53:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400541230140997634)
Body: I remember laughing at the idea that major coins always rally into big events. Surely if that’s true, I thought, someone should just be buying earlier than the rally usually happens ... right?
I said that right before BCH’s 2018 fork on 11/15 ... check out BCH/BTC from then. https://t.co/4ACVCCmvj8
Stats: 34 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400541230140997634
Date: 2021-06-03 19:53:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400541224910589955)
Body: This is the typical pattern — big effects DO arise, but if they’re predictable and consistent, they start happening sooner once everyone’s trading them, until they’re just totally arbed out.
This is the paradigm I was used to when I started trading crypto.
Stats: 50 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400541224910589955
Date: 2021-06-03 19:53:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400541211493027841)
Body: Once a few firms figure it out, they’ll put the reversion trade for HUGE size first thing in the morning. This will have impact and now the reverting move happens all in the morning ...
until it’s pushed even earlier and now the earnings move is just 50% of its original size.
Stats: 36 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400541211493027841
Date: 2021-06-03 19:53:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400541190450253830)
Body: What do I mean? Let’s say that tech stocks consistently revert 50% of their post-earnings moves, always over the course of the following day. What would happen over time as the world figured this out? https://t.co/JLCoTdzBTl
Stats: 28 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400541190450253830
Date: 2021-06-03 19:53:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400541180299972611)
Body: In these markets, it’s really hard for there to be large, fairly obvious, predictable moves — if those existed, these big quant firms would have figured them out too and arbed them out (or similar).
Stats: 40 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400541180299972611
Date: 2021-06-03 19:53:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400541154811199490)
Body: My initial training in quant trading came at SIG, trading more traditional assets than crypto (let’s hear it for fixed income ETFs). These are markets that have existed forever, and many large, skilled firms have traded them forever. https://t.co/RQQr4dqlWy
Stats: 48 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400541154811199490
Date: 2021-06-03 19:53:26 GMT
Body: On a plane to Miami, thinking about the topic of the panel i’m on: Is it possible to time the market? It’s a great question, and one my priors were REALLY wrong about.
A thread about being wrong and making money.
Stats: 567 likes, 86 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 24 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400474724262678536
Date: 2021-06-03 15:29:28 GMT
Replying to: @tonyresearch (Tweet ID: 1400434282342981632)
Body: @tonyresearch @cmsholdings anger is an emotion, checkmate
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400347593432043525
Date: 2021-06-03 07:04:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1400347367241625603)
Body: @carolinecapital @drewg__ "I take issue with the 'him' pronoun choice" would be a decent thing to quote from me out of context.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400159858809356294
Date: 2021-06-02 18:38:18 GMT
Replying to: @Collybear1990 (Tweet ID: 1400131981619441665)
Body: @Collybear1990 @alee @FTX_Official @SBF_Alameda @TomDwan @philivey @RealKidPoker @phil_hellmuth @AnnieDuke @VanessaSelbst @Liv_Boeree @TexDolly Yeah LOL figured that’d happen I stopped knowing anything about pro poker around then.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1400116209908170752
Date: 2021-06-02 15:44:52 GMT
Replying to: @tonyresearch (Tweet ID: 1399989321877258243)
Body: @tonyresearch “most”
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399960699355516929
Date: 2021-06-02 05:26:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1399959444964917248)
Body: @alee @FTX_Official @SBF_Alameda @TomDwan @FTX_Official can you plz organize the world's largest crypto poker tournament
@TomDwan @philivey @RealKidPoker @phil_hellmuth @AnnieDuke @VanessaSelbst @Liv_Boeree @TexDolly
Stats: 69 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 14 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399959444964917248
Date: 2021-06-02 05:21:56 GMT
Replying to: @alee (Tweet ID: 1399958573891821573)
Body: @alee @FTX_Official @SBF_Alameda @TomDwan Would LOVE that.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399952825698897921
Date: 2021-06-02 04:55:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1399952643179651076)
Body: @FTX_Official @SBF_Alameda Also it's gonna be higher, some stragglers haven't settled yet.
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399952643179651076
Date: 2021-06-02 04:54:54 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1399951800338317316)
Body: @FTX_Official I try to get @SBF_Alameda to play but he refuses.
Which is weird -- donating $ is supposed to be his whole deal!!!!
Stats: 54 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399950085228843008
Date: 2021-06-02 04:44:44 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoScipio (Tweet ID: 1399945177054261249)
Body: @CryptoScipio @VentureCoinist Until everyone stops drinking and gets all serious.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399949662908567552
Date: 2021-06-02 04:43:04 GMT
Replying to: @nat9crypto (Tweet ID: 1399945309728370692)
Body: @ImagineKing_ I assure you Elwin did not have a family at any point.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399944895159283712
Date: 2021-06-02 04:24:07 GMT
Replying to: @VentureCoinist (Tweet ID: 1399941156448972804)
Body: @VentureCoinist We usually do about an hour "friendly" and then double the blinds every orbit for a while.
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399941727549526018
Date: 2021-06-02 04:11:32 GMT
Quoted tweet: @levin_agnostic: @AlamedaTrabucco No problem, Sam! https://t.co/th12QJpWNi
Body: This happened within 5min (as well as someone else doing similar it looks like), crypto is the best. https://t.co/BlDTvhfAYY
Stats: 50 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399940567027568640
Date: 2021-06-02 04:06:55 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_Burner (Tweet ID: 1399940400790478849)
Body: @SBF_Burner The stakes we played for have a decent BTC beta.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399939895129432065
Date: 2021-06-02 04:04:15 GMT
Body: Dear Crypto Twitter:
I donate all the $ I win playing poker at our office poker game to the FTX Foundation. PLEASE do not allow that $ stream to remain in the top 10.
https://t.co/iKxlok0XeX https://t.co/41n1NtU9fy
Stats: 399 likes, 16 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 39 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399921954694516749
Date: 2021-06-02 02:52:57 GMT
Quoted tweet: @therobotjames: Quant Research https://t.co/lLyohC9hxI
Body: I *insisted* on writing the actual report here because I heard the alternative involved something other than LaTeX.
https://t.co/LpDV1pxblp https://t.co/O3hk3wIshd
Stats: 42 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399870435521597443
Date: 2021-06-01 23:28:14 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1399869396135428103)
Body: @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings ^footage of you when you realized you misread $35000 as $35000000
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399867800102002689
Date: 2021-06-01 23:17:46 GMT
Replying to: @cobie (Tweet ID: 1399866945533526028)
Body: @CryptoCobain Pride is for buying FTT. https://t.co/wdDwT4BO95
Stats: 65 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399863688107016196
Date: 2021-06-01 23:01:26 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1399833436429369351)
Body: @cmsholdings @rsalame7926 is this what happened to yours?
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399632328926842883
Date: 2021-06-01 07:42:05 GMT
Replying to: @WhoTheFukIsPepe (Tweet ID: 1399623676299972614)
Body: @WhoTheFukIsPepe Both?
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399621747834507265
Date: 2021-06-01 07:00:03 GMT
Body: IMO being named "Magnus" is a dead giveaway you're gonna be the best at something, you've just gotta figure out what it is.
Stats: 521 likes, 10 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 34 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399569788377124867
Date: 2021-06-01 03:33:34 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1399565623529779203)
Body: @cmsintern @JonErlichman Stop pandering.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399442466999357455
Date: 2021-05-31 19:07:39 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1399440806663143435)
Body: @cmsholdings @FTX_Official @ChampChessTour I assume it’s similar to how some computers use one charger and others use another charger.
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399208625709649921
Date: 2021-05-31 03:38:27 GMT
Replying to: @SpacexRocketman (Tweet ID: 1399207616031625217)
Body: @SpacexRocketman @hasufl I used to organize a Mean Girls every semester at MIT, tended to be the Math Association’s most attended event.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399199867243802628
Date: 2021-05-31 03:03:38 GMT
Replying to: @hasufl (Tweet ID: 1399065298045652994)
Body: @hasufl Best in Show
Mean Girls
Oceans 11
Stats: 29 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1399063224394338307
Date: 2021-05-30 18:00:40 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1399061658799009793)
Body: @FTX_Official I quit chess when I started doing math competitions in sixth grade and never looked back.
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1398906172565041158
Date: 2021-05-30 07:36:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1398905731236179970)
Body: @jon_ftx @alltejuupptaget Which seems to be a combo of like:
- statement about exchange activity
- the result of a bunch of new long term holders who bought and held 6 months before the local increase in this metric
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1398905731236179970
Date: 2021-05-30 07:34:51 GMT
Body: @jon_ftx @alltejuupptaget Hmm I might be misunderstanding but isn’t this all of it? It looks like the definition is just all BTCs that haven’t moved in 155 days, so the only way for the number to change is just more new 155 day streaks than existing broken ones.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1398903868495478785
Date: 2021-05-30 07:27:27 GMT
Body: @jon_ftx Does this do anything to account for exchange wallets? My (quick) reading is no which would make me think this is mostly a statement about what people have on exchanges?
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1398902889310007300
Date: 2021-05-30 07:23:33 GMT
Body: @jon_ftx What is this measuring?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1398492534540845065
Date: 2021-05-29 04:12:57 GMT
Quoted tweet: @CL207: crypto b like:
- yo whats ur time zone lets schedule a call
- im in asia
- im in us
- oh perfect, i go to sleep at like 6am so ill be awake during US time
- ah man, i actually go to sleep at like 6am US time so its actually day time in asia so you'd be asleep
Body: This is the worst part of job interviews, candidates go out of their way to schedule for Asia and I have to be like uhh yeah this job’s hours mean that 4am my time is perfect. https://t.co/npQwJ7161v
Stats: 118 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1398119820315484161
Date: 2021-05-28 03:31:55 GMT
Replying to: @azeroz (Tweet ID: 1398119612454256640)
Body: @azeroz @SBF_Alameda 1/3 ain't bad.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1398119724903452673
Date: 2021-05-28 03:31:32 GMT
Replying to: @DJclicker77 (Tweet ID: 1398109629196943361)
Body: @DJclicker77 If they're rich.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1398119372456091649
Date: 2021-05-28 03:30:08 GMT
Replying to: @azeroz (Tweet ID: 1398118655251079177)
Body: @azeroz @SBF_Alameda I believe all involved would hate this.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1398118516692238340
Date: 2021-05-28 03:26:44 GMT
Replying to: @tyliu66 (Tweet ID: 1398118318331109376)
Body: @TyLiu12 @neon___glow @SBF_Alameda Yeah too late I guess.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1398118358155997185
Date: 2021-05-28 03:26:07 GMT
Replying to: @avgcr (Tweet ID: 1398118246277025792)
Body: @avgcr @SBF_Alameda Of all the valid criticisms one could level at me I genuinely think "simp"is not one.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1398118179055013889
Date: 2021-05-28 03:25:24 GMT
Replying to: @neon___glow (Tweet ID: 1398118128316338176)
Body: @neon___glow @SBF_Alameda One comes out.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1398118022498357251
Date: 2021-05-28 03:24:46 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1398111947170615296)
Body: @SBF_Alameda We can chat if you're lonely.
Stats: 150 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1398057542190829570
Date: 2021-05-27 23:24:27 GMT
Body: https://t.co/dh6pa3pcTW
Stats: 457 likes, 15 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1397679035082289159
Date: 2021-05-26 22:20:24 GMT
Replying to: @moreproteinbars (Tweet ID: 1397674601182896130)
Body: @moreproteinbars @drunkengrass @JStein_WaPo @TheStalwart @SBF_Alameda @rsalame7926 @tonyresearch will tell you this thread was the last thing my ego needed https://t.co/jc6FUi5Uxq
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1397678678574829575
Date: 2021-05-26 22:18:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1397678573180358657)
Body: @austerity_sucks literally feels like a different life time but was like 3 years ago lol
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1397640336940351494
Date: 2021-05-26 19:46:37 GMT
Replying to: @tonyresearch (Tweet ID: 1397640155956080648)
Body: @tonyresearch I thrive as an underdog.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1397625450801864712
Date: 2021-05-26 18:47:28 GMT
Replying to: @jernejdrinovec (Tweet ID: 1397625265090613252)
Body: @jernejdrinovec Not sure TBH, would ask the conference ppl.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1397624475533910020
Date: 2021-05-26 18:43:36 GMT
Quoted tweet: @TheBitcoinConf: The Bitcoin 2021 lineup now updated with even more terrific speakers!
😎👕 https://t.co/3zc5ez7iHd
Body: Plz come hear me talk about liquidations in person instead of just on the internet. https://t.co/MV4acCjybd
Stats: 186 likes, 7 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 18 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1397587282492788738
Date: 2021-05-26 16:15:48 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsintern: Intern notes on a great @ProfitMaxmalist podcast with Sam Trabucco (Alameda) on last week’s market nuke, sidelining money, future outlook and more
@VentureCoinist <> @AlamedaTrabucco https://t.co/PxRb5umS2M
Body: Thank you as always for your service. https://t.co/dTaBBSgv2o
Stats: 179 likes, 14 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1397272593124712449
Date: 2021-05-25 19:25:20 GMT
Quoted tweet: @VentureCoinist: New podcast w/ @AlamedaTrabucco covering:
•Trading after massive liquidations
•Deciding how much money to save for dips
•Myths about the bull market
•Humans vs bots
Listening to Sam will boost your IQ by 100.
Watch: https://t.co/oUQO1kkpEc
Listen: https://t.co/2wFL5p16Cw
Body: Ironically, "boosting your IQ" is one of the things my Twitter impersonators frequently advertize. https://t.co/57FlF1t41A
Stats: 67 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1397039147110572032
Date: 2021-05-25 03:57:43 GMT
Replying to: @CL207 (Tweet ID: 1397038979376103424)
Body: @CL207 @VentureCoinist It's from the New York Times!
https://t.co/LFxlgAhdrU
Stats: 39 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1397038753479229443
Date: 2021-05-25 03:56:09 GMT
Quoted tweet: @superhotmaki: Just listened to @VentureCoinist & @AlamedaTrabucco for some reasonable voices during this crash.
https://t.co/l2d9I5kFGh
Though Elon & China FUD might have nudged the market, the main reason for the sharp move down was liquidation from 40k downwards, why?
My notes in a 🧵👇
Body: Quick convo about the crash last week. Always fun talking to @VentureCoinist! https://t.co/OqJlnReAKF
Stats: 119 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396989404435161088
Date: 2021-05-25 00:40:03 GMT
Body: @ant_highpoint @ProfitMaxmalist It's all based on publicly available info -- I've explained it a bunch!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396982120539697153
Date: 2021-05-25 00:11:06 GMT
Body: @ant_highpoint @ProfitMaxmalist Disregarding the accusation I’ve denied many times before, note that the vast majority (99%?) of liquidations occurred not on FTX.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396951458059272202
Date: 2021-05-24 22:09:16 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoMtnDrew (Tweet ID: 1396949809035190272)
Body: @CryptoMtnDrew The BTC tweets aren't all +++ though like DOGE, I don't think they're as easy to game.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396918950836019200
Date: 2021-05-24 20:00:06 GMT
Quoted tweet: @elonmusk: Spoke with North American Bitcoin miners. They committed to publish current & planned renewable usage & to ask miners WW to do so. Potentially promising.
Body: https://t.co/EUBgV4JLWP https://t.co/hoX61bOgPo
Stats: 1008 likes, 71 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 25 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396723971740127232
Date: 2021-05-24 07:05:19 GMT
Replying to: @burglol (Tweet ID: 1396721923569061889)
Body: @burglol Yes.
Stats: 68 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396614928153337867
Date: 2021-05-23 23:52:01 GMT
Replying to: @fintechfrank (Tweet ID: 1396614734997295104)
Body: @fintechfrank FWIW Alameda created a bunch and it's certainly not being used bearishly. Just not *purely* bullishly either ;)
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396614277017096193
Date: 2021-05-23 23:49:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396614263087767552)
Body: To be clear: I don't know where every new stablecoin ended up, and I don't *know* which of these narratives is right. I'm just contesting the idea that it's definitely bullish.
Don't shoot the messenger! https://t.co/Y1GgtJcfrH
Stats: 48 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396614262106304514
Date: 2021-05-23 23:49:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396614261124784129)
Body: The direction which can cause USDT to get rich is lots of BTC *selling* -- specifically in the USDT markets, yes, but still, lots of net selling vs. USDT can cause this trade, which is a big reason for stablecoins to get created.
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396614261124784129
Date: 2021-05-23 23:49:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396614260164268032)
Body: Why does USDT (or any stablecoin) get rich? Various reasons -- maybe people really need something USD-like and so bid it up (because they're not creating for whatever reason). But maybe the BTC/USDT market has significant activity.
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396614260164268032
Date: 2021-05-23 23:49:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396614258914385928)
Body: ... but, it could also be used to be parked in a yield farm, or as collateral for someone trying to get super short, or whatever.
Also, consider a common trade -- USDT gets really rich, MMs (such as Alameda) create USDT to sell it >1. This increases stablecoin supply!
Stats: 43 likes, 1 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396614258914385928
Date: 2021-05-23 23:49:21 GMT
Quoted tweet: @fintechfrank: My crypto market wrap for this weekend
Here's what's wrong:
Bearish activity in derivatives, China anxieties, low liquidity
How things can get worse:
Balance sheet blow-ups, large corporates backing out, Chinese miner capitulation
What's good:
Stablecoin supply
VC $$$
Body: BTW not to be a downer but the stablecoin supply being up is less obviously +++ than a lot of people have claimed.
There are plenty of reasons why it could be good -- more USD flowing into the ecosystem could of course be used for buying crypto ...
https://t.co/AtlU3ovLIp
Stats: 121 likes, 16 retweets, 7 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396604102277320706
Date: 2021-05-23 23:09:00 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603798043480069)
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: Thinks are down a lot today on surprisingly little volume/liquidations/etc.
Probably low-liquidity from the weekend.
What usually happens when the week starts after that? I honestly haven't looked into it much. Momentum or mean reversion? https://t.co/ERfGbz8K91
Body: Oh oops I meant to post this as a RT of this, IDK what happened.
https://t.co/BBPX0McrdZ
Stats: 43 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603871145910275
Date: 2021-05-23 23:08:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603857229295617)
Body: ... which is sorta a vague and not especially groundbreaking prediction, but that's what happens when all I get to rely on is intuition.
Looking forward to seeing how it plays out! https://t.co/V1s9XW2DGl
Stats: 102 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603857229295617
Date: 2021-05-23 23:08:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603855299821582)
Body: So, in combination, I think there's a strong chance for markets to move once the rest of the liquidity comes back (no strong opinion about direction), but the fact that we're not in a liquidation zone means that I'd expect the magnitude of the move to be smaller than recent ones.
Stats: 78 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603855299821582
Date: 2021-05-23 23:08:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603848375083010)
Body: So! I think this means the magnitude of moves we see -- especially as liquidity picks up and it takes more net buying/selling to move the market again -- should be *smaller* than we're used to, since the giant moves largely happen off the back of liquidations. https://t.co/pRapfuGQMg
Stats: 54 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603848375083010
Date: 2021-05-23 23:07:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603846990999554)
Body: This inherently removes a LOT of the momentum the market has been exhibiting -- there won't be a lot of forced selling on the way down or forced buying on the way up until we get out of this zone, or until time passes and OI goes up again.
Stats: 64 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603846990999554
Date: 2021-05-23 23:07:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603839982317573)
Body: Over time more new contracts will get opened, but this *just happened* -- it would be hard for a ton of liquidations to happen from a second drop to near 30k. This means that, unless things REALLY nosedive, we won't see these cascades for a bit. https://t.co/EiVD5A8JlF
Stats: 52 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603839982317573
Date: 2021-05-23 23:07:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603838967296002)
Body: It's predictable that we're in a low-liquidation zone of sorts. Tons of liquidations happened the other day from 40k -> 30k, and you'd basically think that anything that will get liquidated around here already did. OI stabilizing supports this!
Stats: 53 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603838967296002
Date: 2021-05-23 23:07:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603837461499904)
Body: Another big difference: low liquidations.
Note: back when BTC was kinda bouncing around between 3k and 15k for a while in 2019 or something, this was closer to how most moves looked. Liquidations mattered, just more rarely.
Stats: 46 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603837461499904
Date: 2021-05-23 23:07:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603824123559951)
Body: So, I think low liquidity/volume combine to mean: this dip is not really what "the market" thinks is right, and is really just what a smallish fraction thinks is right. The broader market might wanna sell more or buy it back, who knows! All I specifically expect is elevated vol. https://t.co/esC4lE84Yn
Stats: 59 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603824123559951
Date: 2021-05-23 23:07:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603817026859013)
Body: It's impossible to say a priori how different -- they might even wanna sell even lower! -- but I think it's pretty predictable that it has more propensity to be unrepresentative than if there were 3x as much volume this weekend. https://t.co/h4ImF8GQQj
Stats: 40 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603817026859013
Date: 2021-05-23 23:07:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603816057966599)
Body: If you imagine that, on Monday, 3x as much volume will trade as did during this little crash, it's clear that there's a TON of room for that volume / those MIA market players to have a really different opinion than "this is rich here, let's sell."
Stats: 59 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603816057966599
Date: 2021-05-23 23:07:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603814816489475)
Body: And the fact that there's low volume means that it's *possible* that the transactions which have actually occurred during this weekend have very little to do with the market's average opinion!
Stats: 73 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603814816489475
Date: 2021-05-23 23:07:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603807950376960)
Body: The fact that there's low liquidity means that the amount of net buying or selling pressure to move the market is lower than usual -- in this case, we've needed less net selling than usual to move the market down. https://t.co/5vbA1lyBBG
Stats: 55 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603807950376960
Date: 2021-05-23 23:07:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603806595657729)
Body: Let's think about the features which distinguish this move / set of market conditions from other ones.
First: low liquidity and low volume.
Stats: 51 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603806595657729
Date: 2021-05-23 23:07:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1396603798043480069)
Body: So I think looking to data for the answer about what to expect as the weekend wraps up and liquidity increases is misguided -- intuition is likely gonna beat it.
What does intuition say? https://t.co/AuTd7xIhCF
Stats: 45 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396603798043480069
Date: 2021-05-23 23:07:47 GMT
Body: FWIW this is the sort of move which hasn't happened in quite some time:
- big moves have basically all been driven by liquidations lately
- ESPECIALLY "low-liquidity" ones such as on weekends
Stats: 472 likes, 73 retweets, 12 quote tweets, 18 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396211453296889863
Date: 2021-05-22 21:08:45 GMT
Replying to: @Daisyprinciple (Tweet ID: 1396211341715668994)
Body: @Daisyprinciple Key thing to realize, yeah.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1396207802239045633
Date: 2021-05-22 20:54:14 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: 'Twas the night before Christmas, and try though they may
Not a token was mooning, not even AAVE
Market buys getting sent by the apes without care
In hopes that new all-time highs soon would be there https://t.co/tFcHfnKIS6
Body: I just re-read this and maintain that it's my all-time best content in a way I'll never top. https://t.co/8QqKDrlv8m
Stats: 365 likes, 17 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 33 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395845405150228483
Date: 2021-05-21 20:54:12 GMT
Replying to: @AutismCapital (Tweet ID: 1395845064899719169)
Body: @AutismCapital A thread about turning CO2 into diamonds.
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395778234298609666
Date: 2021-05-21 16:27:18 GMT
Replying to: @0xArchie (Tweet ID: 1395776475593203713)
Body: @YangArChee And I'll do it again.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395598185440202754
Date: 2021-05-21 04:31:51 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1395593736067878919)
Body: @cmsintern @rsalame7926 Thank you for defending my honor sir.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395595883354411009
Date: 2021-05-21 04:22:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395595622187687938)
Body: @rsalame7926 Also though I do def agree that the immediate price recovery indicates the general "weak hands -> stronger hands" narrative (via liquidated longs -> the people who bought on the other side on net), just not sure the spot/derivatives distinction matters a ton for it.
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395595622187687938
Date: 2021-05-21 04:21:39 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1395593451421437956)
Body: @rsalame7926 Hmm I think not all MMs sold spot :P
(I agree they largely closed short futures sides of spreads because the futures went to discounts / much lower premia)
Also by-volume I sorta question the idea that spot buyers are less likely to eventually sell.
Stats: 29 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395553685820805121
Date: 2021-05-21 01:35:01 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1395553040833339392)
Body: @cmsholdings @comrad_pete @rsalame7926 001001010101001
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395552733973860354
Date: 2021-05-21 01:31:14 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1395552312295235584)
Body: @rsalame7926 @comrad_pete @cmsholdings I find you unrelatable.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395549563948310530
Date: 2021-05-21 01:18:38 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1395542165305106439)
Body: @cmsholdings It’s 2021, I thought we’d established robots have feelings.
Example: ask @rsalame7926 how exhausting I got when I didn’t leave the office in December.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395505695827628037
Date: 2021-05-20 22:24:19 GMT
Replying to: @adamscochran (Tweet ID: 1395504079791611909)
Body: @adamscochran @bigmac375 @TusharJain_ @CryptoCobain @VCBrags Mostly agree but putting 25% of the $ into the best opportunity you’ve ever seen is often needed to truly maximize.
Stats: 30 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395496788472254467
Date: 2021-05-20 21:48:56 GMT
Replying to: @Yodaskk (Tweet ID: 1395496342181589001)
Body: @Yodaskk @cmsintern @CryptoCobain @UpOnlyTV @SBF_Alameda @ledgerstatus @CryptoCred @Cryptopathic @tradinglord @cmsholdings I’ve made him an offer of 2x whatever CMS pays him but he’s loyal.
Stats: 61 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395493795089768455
Date: 2021-05-20 21:37:02 GMT
Replying to: @tradingcaleb (Tweet ID: 1395487703844614144)
Body: @LittlestFinger @IamNomad How much SOL would you pay tho
Stats: 23 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395492979977109504
Date: 2021-05-20 21:33:48 GMT
Replying to: @dusk_codes (Tweet ID: 1395492538199511042)
Body: @dusktrades @ThysMusic @UpOnlyTV +++
Stats: 4 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395490786398121989
Date: 2021-05-20 21:25:05 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoDonAlt (Tweet ID: 1395370229304283146)
Body: @CryptoDonAlt Alameda devotes a lot more capital to “sitting around waiting to do this” than we used to, the EV is just so high.
Stats: 198 likes, 9 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395490440221179910
Date: 2021-05-20 21:23:42 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cobie: Best UpOnly quote ever from @AlamedaTrabucco “if you’re wrong you only lose all your money” hahahahaha lmao hahah
Body: It’s like if you were spotted 2/6 numbers in the lottery. https://t.co/jKQHowe686
Stats: 109 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395488361150832645
Date: 2021-05-20 21:15:26 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoJelleNL (Tweet ID: 1395486014949535746)
Body: @CryptoJelleNL I’m not a show pony.
Stats: 154 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395487290793893891
Date: 2021-05-20 21:11:11 GMT
Replying to: @IamNomad (Tweet ID: 1395486073480962051)
Body: @IamNomad Only when it’s +EV which is 100x leverage usually is not :P
Stats: 56 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395482388604542976
Date: 2021-05-20 20:51:42 GMT
Replying to: @INArteCarloDoss (Tweet ID: 1395482021665943556)
Body: @INArteCarloDoss Depends what you’re maximizing — if it’s EV betting a ton tends to be quite good even if you might lose a lot.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395480979867947012
Date: 2021-05-20 20:46:07 GMT
Replying to: @arjunblj (Tweet ID: 1395479183074099200)
Body: @arjunblj @0x4C756B65 @SBF_Alameda @tarunchitra AoPS was my life from 2005 to 2010 or so.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395480699210248193
Date: 2021-05-20 20:45:00 GMT
Quoted tweet: @dusk_codes: [On $DOGE earlier in the year]: 'The upside is you 100x, the downside is just that you lose all your money'.
I think @AlamedaTrabucco is my new favourite @UpOnlyTV guest.
Body: People over-estimate how bad losing a lot is -- if you've got time to earn more, you should bet a TON when you're getting it in good.
https://t.co/cLPhRB9uxm https://t.co/3AsZ6bhnix
Stats: 358 likes, 19 retweets, 11 quote tweets, 23 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395480266471321611
Date: 2021-05-20 20:43:16 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1395477847544799234)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @0x4C756B65 No one ever expects Gary to be so heavily involved in this.
Stats: 34 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395456121511493633
Date: 2021-05-20 19:07:20 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cobie: LETS DO THIS https://t.co/mFJuQHC3ly
@AlamedaTrabucco
@Cryptopathic
@tradinglord
@CryptoCred
IF ONLY TV https://t.co/FyWxO522re
Body: Going live shortly! https://t.co/AHLcJZpT3K
Stats: 160 likes, 7 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395425426231762946
Date: 2021-05-20 17:05:22 GMT
Quoted tweet: @CoinbaseExch: Starting today, inbound transfers for SOL are now available in the regions where trading is supported. Traders cannot place orders and no orders will be filled. Trading will begin on or after 9AM PT on Monday May 24, if liquidity conditions are met. https://t.co/93Hmc2hV9J
Body: Love to see the present morph into the future. https://t.co/hP5MIYJDsO
Stats: 81 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395422686424281091
Date: 2021-05-20 16:54:28 GMT
Replying to: @movingnorthuk (Tweet ID: 1395422541108350976)
Body: @movingnorthuk Honestly this is good, might steal.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395422223616315394
Date: 2021-05-20 16:52:38 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cobie: Today’s UpOnly is @Cryptopathic @AlamedaTrabucco @CryptoCred @tradinglord and legendary on chain analyst OnChainCred maybe some additional special guests we will see
Body: Looking forward to leaking some alpha.
Also, please see my attached commentary on dog names. https://t.co/ELIjvu4SsR https://t.co/bSuuXOUvVk
Stats: 98 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395418794248527873
Date: 2021-05-20 16:39:00 GMT
Replying to: @cobie (Tweet ID: 1395413953996640258)
Body: @CryptoCobain @arjunblj @Cryptopathic @UpOnlyTV Down!
Stats: 125 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395391641444311042
Date: 2021-05-20 14:51:07 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1395386816899866626)
Body: @rsalame7926 It's mutual.
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395240584374366210
Date: 2021-05-20 04:50:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395240470981263362)
Body: @CL207 I'm not attributing the crash to this -- I'm attributing the momentum to it.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395240470981263362
Date: 2021-05-20 04:50:25 GMT
Replying to: @CL207 (Tweet ID: 1395237776350748675)
Body: @CL207 Err again it wasn't exactly rising OI, just new longs being opened at elevated premia which did happen (and is what got liquidated).
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395238142496673794
Date: 2021-05-20 04:41:10 GMT
Replying to: @mrguy1121 (Tweet ID: 1395238054969765888)
Body: @mrguy1121 @SBF_Alameda Honestly you should see our slack.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395237865362239489
Date: 2021-05-20 04:40:04 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1395237532166627329)
Body: @SBF_Alameda https://t.co/xLia0hKr1R
Stats: 18 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395237180063293441
Date: 2021-05-20 04:37:20 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1395237030951485441)
Body: @rsalame7926 Yes I agree this was as usual a team effort!
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395237058663358468
Date: 2021-05-20 04:36:51 GMT
Replying to: @CL207 (Tweet ID: 1395232992579264513)
Body: @CL207 This doesn't exactly matter, though, in terms of there being a ton of forced ETH selling because of a bunch of new ETH longs.
Stats: 16 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395236512976019457
Date: 2021-05-20 04:34:41 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1395235506753990658)
Body: @rsalame7926 Replied, thanks for flagging!
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395236083223474179
Date: 2021-05-20 04:32:59 GMT
Replying to: @CL207 (Tweet ID: 1395230923000623105)
Body: @CL207 Oh yeah FWIW literal OI isn't exactly the metric here -- OI increases on days when premium was +++ and then adjusted for shorts getting liquidated (there were a TON of those) is better, just didn't have a graph handy and that's a bit of a mouthful :P
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395222398786494466
Date: 2021-05-20 03:38:36 GMT
Replying to: @mcuban (Tweet ID: 1395221958363602946)
Body: @mcuban @Crypto_Outdoors Yep, the gas fee thing specifically does not happen on CEXes, but there are definitely various infra improvements one can make. It's all totally above board, though -- just a bunch of ways to improve setup and do the good trades first if you've got the resources.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395219427604451329
Date: 2021-05-20 03:26:48 GMT
Replying to: @mcuban (Tweet ID: 1395218808617508865)
Body: @mcuban The liquidation-driven momentum is definitely predictable at some price points (mostly near local optima) and when you can nail those predictable points trading the momentum-y direction first is often great, yeah.
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395218846567518210
Date: 2021-05-20 03:24:29 GMT
Replying to: @BrianBettor (Tweet ID: 1395216104088346624)
Body: @BrianBettor Great point -- it's definitely most important to optimize for having $ on the exchanges which you expect to be operable when shit moves. Those exchanges tend to be the same every time.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395218042645368834
Date: 2021-05-20 03:21:17 GMT
Replying to: @UpTrendCapital (Tweet ID: 1395217882053812227)
Body: @DiscoCrypto No idea, never seen one.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211798354219008
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211786006183938)
Body: The most bitter lemons can make the best lemonade -- you just need a good recipe (I think this is just sugar, which makes sense). Make sure you're ready for next time if you weren't this time!
Because lemme tell you: lemonade is good. https://t.co/qtS3JA5wme
Stats: 568 likes, 34 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 37 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211786006183938
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211769073786892)
Body: So, even though many of you were probably long and lost a lot to positions today (Alameda too!), there were still lots of great trades to make. These days are rough and can be tough to swallow as they're happening -- but buckling down during them is necessary to make the most $. https://t.co/HFpXnHhL8D
Stats: 230 likes, 4 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211769073786892
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211767446376448)
Body: There were TONS of trades like this all across the market -- if you knew were to look and had the money to do them, today was more important than any in the past 3 months, easily.
Stats: 224 likes, 8 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211767446376448
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211766397870088)
Quoted tweet: @paoloardoino: Huge buy wall getting eaten through on Finex
@bitfinex https://t.co/bY8b1Zb99E
Body: Even something like selling into this Bitfinex bid wall and simultaneously buying elsewhere was AWESOME. These walls tend to be super price-insensitive, so as the other markets move, an awesome spread develops as this person doesn't move their bid.
https://t.co/TcT4xgHLAu
Stats: 160 likes, 5 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211766397870088
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211764825006087)
Body: Empirically, though, I think it's been frequent enough to justify at least having *some* easily-accessed capital laying around. You could easily make multiples on $ you had if you, e.g., knew when to buy the bottom -- disregarding lower risk %s-wide spreads.
Stats: 157 likes, 5 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211764825006087
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211757308743680)
Body: Now, that's not exactly to say it was correct to have lots of capital sitting around -- lots of profitable yield farms, spreads, normal types of trades, etc., and who *actually* knows the probability of a day like today a priori. https://t.co/3lqyw7Fudi
Stats: 116 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211757308743680
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211756268670977)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Of course 1/500 is just a guess, and 50% might not be optimal -- it's possible some market dynamics *do* make this worthwhile. But it's not quite as simple as "no-risk way to maybe make a lot" because of opportunity cost.
Body: And there were non-delta trades that were amazing today, too! Markets got SUPER out of line as they tend to when they move a lot, and %s of arbs were possible -- if you had free capital. Which you might have, if you were considering opportunity cost ;)
https://t.co/RdfS6UVIIS
Stats: 147 likes, 6 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211754683109383
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211750660771842)
Body: The timescale for this trade tends to be pretty quick -- minutes to hours, depending on magnitude. It's one of the nicer trades because of how much *sense* it makes -- no one wanted to sell here ... so ... people will buy.
And so Alameda did just that -- we bought a LOT. https://t.co/cW17aeD18p
Stats: 389 likes, 35 retweets, 9 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211750660771842
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211742658154503)
Body: Another thing we've seen time and again -- when these natural moves get exacerbated by liquidations, the fundamental thing to understand is: NO ONE wanted to sell them as low as they got. That means, whenever the market can gather its collateral, the market *should* rebound. https://t.co/TQ8kupU75d
Stats: 222 likes, 16 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211742658154503
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211739181076481)
Body: If you were paying attention to the last times moves like this have happened, this was a PERFECT chance to get mega-short into the recent lows. ETH was even more extreme -- less time since this level, but a TON of new open interest, much of which got rekt in a trademark cascade. https://t.co/TDWmtoGTU3
Stats: 161 likes, 4 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211739181076481
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211736026959874)
Body: This started happening *before* BTC hit $40k. When it managed to dip below $40k -- a level it's not seen since February, meaning a LOT of new buyers have gotten long since -- there were a LOT of long positions which had their first chance to get liquidated. And, well ... https://t.co/jlmtahgpd1
Stats: 161 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211736026959874
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211734680543235)
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: Those are some big liquidations...
https://t.co/GpSNTsvMpg https://t.co/kOQT6q123u
Body: Whatever caused the initial market-wide crash -- probably a lot of Elon with some China and other vague regulatory news thrown in, or maybe it's a "natural correction" -- it happened, and liquidations did a lot of work to make the downturn more intense.
https://t.co/zu8pmTXT9X
Stats: 275 likes, 17 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211734680543235
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211733212573696)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Day 1: Asia bought, U.S. bought a bit and then stopped.
Day 2: Asia bought, the U.S. didn't, everything sold quickly off.
Day 3? I'd guess even Asia isn't gonna buy, and that's just what happened -- with markets still up and no "reason why" they sold off 5% steadily, until ... https://t.co/YRXrTAI9b3
Body: And come along it did. I won't repeat myself here -- when there's a big 1-directional move with lots of aggro positions getting opened and then there's a small reversion, liquidations create momentum and make it a BIG reversion. See: Thanksgiving 2020.
https://t.co/i1NcSBcYKR
Stats: 250 likes, 9 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211733212573696
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211729626402816)
Body: That people thought ETH in particular was just all institutions buying on Coinbase or something was particularly baffling to me. Look at these GIANT OIs/premia as ETH skyrocketed to its ATH! This was all on leverage, just waiting for a day like today to come along ... https://t.co/v4tpVd7teU
Stats: 366 likes, 24 retweets, 11 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211729626402816
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211725952192514)
Body: BTC perp funding was consistently between low + and really quite high + as new contracts got opened -- looking just at Binance (the most important for liquidations), you can see this was literally never untrue during the past 3 months (BTC > $40k the whole time). https://t.co/FNIEEQRlN4
Stats: 178 likes, 10 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211725952192514
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:11 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211717710393349)
Body: More specifically, though, this rally looked identical to all the others I've discussed on here. Open interest (on Binance, but also on all the other platforms) was shooting up basically the entire time, premia were high for those products, etc. Tale as old as time. https://t.co/vF1sqkqHfw
Stats: 203 likes, 6 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211717710393349
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211714723995650)
Body: This narrative was super wrong, though -- and it was possible to know that. How? Well, this narrative has basically been true zero times in the past 3ish years -- you can tell from the fact that all the volume is in derivatives or spot where the exchange allows leverage. https://t.co/s1Uu1qVpPF
Stats: 349 likes, 24 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211714723995650
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211713318895618)
Body: I saw a TON of speculation that the rallies (especially the ETH rallies) were low-leverage and spot-driven, and therefore "more organic" somehow. An important implication of that is that, in the event of a downturn, there'd be relatively few liquidations.
Stats: 247 likes, 9 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211713318895618
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211705014173696)
Body: Many alts reached all-time highs -- some for these more fundamental reasons, and some from Elon-related hysteria.
Which coins are rallying isn't all that matters, though, and understanding reasons for the buying isn't enough, either. We need to go deeper. https://t.co/Aobodppq9C
Stats: 191 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211705014173696
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211701461651458)
Body: More recently, the rumors turned to ETH. Now, institutions were getting into ETH, too! And some other coins, but at least for the past couple weeks, the ETH rally was The Big Thing happening (ignoring DOGE). Look at that ETH/BTC over-performance! BTC dominance was at a local min. https://t.co/YzZoaOYGH3
Stats: 192 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211701461651458
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395211697930047489)
Body: The narrative in the winter was clear: institutions were getting into crypto and that's why crypto rallied so much. This mostly happened in BTC, but the other coins mostly had a beta to BTC so they all rallied some, too.
Simple enough. https://t.co/3VhHRHMT9o
Stats: 212 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395211697930047489
Date: 2021-05-20 02:56:05 GMT
Body: Well. Crypto's crashed quite a bit in the past few days, leading up to a GIANT crash (BTC touched sub-$30k!) a few hours ago. It's ticked back up somewhat since, and started bouncing around a bit. What happened?
A thread about lemons and lemonade. https://t.co/LY8bXblDaH
Stats: 3544 likes, 860 retweets, 148 quote tweets, 115 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395172785060782082
Date: 2021-05-20 00:21:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1395171921399066627)
Body: @adamscochran For the most part this isn’t right for the major ones except seconds-long blips on single markets, comparing eg liquid /USD and /USDT markets (which is the better way to see where a stablecoin is trading) reveals much closer to $1 for the big ones.
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395171921399066627
Date: 2021-05-20 00:18:01 GMT
Replying to: @adamscochran (Tweet ID: 1395161859473526785)
Body: @adamscochran I wouldn’t trust Coingecko’s numbers for this.
Stats: 52 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395053197186805763
Date: 2021-05-19 16:26:15 GMT
Body: Brutal haircut. https://t.co/SbH2fQvkv7
Stats: 92 likes, 3 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395041755431591938
Date: 2021-05-19 15:40:47 GMT
Replying to: @bubby_io (Tweet ID: 1395041337385181184)
Body: @bubby_io @SBF_Alameda someone's asking for you
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1395027516868464643
Date: 2021-05-19 14:44:13 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: Those are some big liquidations...
https://t.co/GpSNTsvMpg https://t.co/kOQT6q123u
Body: One thing I never got was why people were so sure the $60k rally was spot-driven. https://t.co/w8TVYqo4il
Stats: 225 likes, 14 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 13 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1394795234576437253
Date: 2021-05-18 23:21:12 GMT
Replying to: @eternalgreedbtc (Tweet ID: 1394794315453542401)
Body: @eternalgreedbtc Oh just like, the bad news that keeps coming out (Elon mostly)
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1394656975301091332
Date: 2021-05-18 14:11:49 GMT
Replying to: @ryancohen (Tweet ID: 1394482434171973634)
Body: @ryancohen @rsalame7926 i feel this
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1394320010005331968
Date: 2021-05-17 15:52:50 GMT
Replying to: @Knowcoinery (Tweet ID: 1394317798923456513)
Body: @Knowcoinery https://t.co/3NyZ6vcbDJ
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1394022425726226435
Date: 2021-05-16 20:10:20 GMT
Body: Is this real life https://t.co/HSnkd0yryc
Stats: 202 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393960873060937728
Date: 2021-05-16 16:05:45 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1393960629103472644)
Body: @cmsholdings @joebobcr Apostrophe and all, are you OK
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393959224154202115
Date: 2021-05-16 15:59:12 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1393958352913371137)
Body: @cmsholdings Same reason I don’t ask you for copy editing.
Stats: 72 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393958520899387399
Date: 2021-05-16 15:56:24 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1393953172197097478)
Body: @cmsholdings @hasufl @IamNomad @wintermute_t https://t.co/DuBTonr8UK
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393950569623076866
Date: 2021-05-16 15:24:48 GMT
Replying to: @sasuke___420 (Tweet ID: 1393946607494651905)
Body: @sasuke___420 @cmsholdings @hasufl @IamNomad @wintermute_t it's also v cheap to borrow
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393950284225855490
Date: 2021-05-16 15:23:40 GMT
Replying to: @hasufl (Tweet ID: 1393949536310251524)
Body: @hasufl @syskor @sasuke___420 @cmsholdings @IamNomad @wintermute_t the thread isn't even about a doomsday rush to exit, it's about a mundane "risk manager" flipping out over nothing so no reason to assume any other market behavior
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393945238843056129
Date: 2021-05-16 15:03:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1393944945615114240)
Body: @cmsholdings @hasufl @IamNomad @wintermute_t if a hedge fund has USDT and crypto and someone demands a higher USDT haircut why wouldn’t they just redeem the USDT lol
Stats: 38 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393944945615114240
Date: 2021-05-16 15:02:27 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1393944287000375301)
Body: @cmsholdings @hasufl @IamNomad @wintermute_t Yeah why no DOGE allocation.
(agreed w/Dan, that it’s not 100% cash isn’t remotely surprising, I agree it’s more conservative than I’d guess and the linked thread seems naive to me)
Stats: 47 likes, 2 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393624664396685322
Date: 2021-05-15 17:49:46 GMT
Replying to: @JitsuBit (Tweet ID: 1393535283577098240)
Body: @JitsuBit Throw a ball.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393616652017733632
Date: 2021-05-15 17:17:56 GMT
Body: Just made a flight by about 1 minute, get on my level @SBF_Alameda
Stats: 115 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393611156212916226
Date: 2021-05-15 16:56:06 GMT
Replying to: @SamuelG5978 (Tweet ID: 1393540086570962950)
Body: @SamuelG5978 Lately I don't :P
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393611050499649542
Date: 2021-05-15 16:55:41 GMT
Replying to: @cryptoweldon (Tweet ID: 1393552205219827714)
Body: @cryptoweldon 10h for a typical one
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393559655926964224
Date: 2021-05-15 13:31:27 GMT
Replying to: @SOLKillsETH (Tweet ID: 1393547258772213766)
Body: @SOLKillsETH lol
https://t.co/70iqRfC3AE
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393533091776454658
Date: 2021-05-15 11:45:54 GMT
Replying to: @dg1001 (Tweet ID: 1393532112855257091)
Body: @dg1001 I'm good at Scrabble and assumed it would be the same (it isn't but that got me trying anyway)
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393532776754843651
Date: 2021-05-15 11:44:39 GMT
Replying to: @frxresearch (Tweet ID: 1393532298599952386)
Body: @frxresearch In this one I made last year I put EOS and TRON next to each other but Will Shortz edited the clues :(
https://t.co/20ZABWioxQ
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393532153925877762
Date: 2021-05-15 11:42:10 GMT
Replying to: @theta124 (Tweet ID: 1393472836493316097)
Body: @theta124 Sure, in general this is true, I mentioned elsewhere in the thread why Alameda mostly gets to shortcut around this.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393531751818047488
Date: 2021-05-15 11:40:34 GMT
Body: Trading is obviously one of my passions -- writing crosswords is another, and I wrote today's NYT crossword! In case crypto twitter would like to "get me" better, I've attached it here. https://t.co/5wpIy290Jc
Stats: 316 likes, 10 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 27 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1393177827672051712
Date: 2021-05-14 12:14:12 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1393169663165550599)
Body: @rsalame7926 when you put “interested in men” on FB suddenly all your ads are for gay cruises or tiny underwear, if that would be preferable
Stats: 35 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1392890189610115079
Date: 2021-05-13 17:11:14 GMT
Replying to: @Target_Sir (Tweet ID: 1392889448447291392)
Body: @Target_Sir ooh nice gif that’s my fav episode of television
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1392886874134437896
Date: 2021-05-13 16:58:04 GMT
Body: Have been away from work for 2 days did I miss anything?
Stats: 481 likes, 3 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 59 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1392490218708770817
Date: 2021-05-12 14:41:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1392489615320309760)
Body: @saanglee e.g. I’ve benefited a ton from American social mobility, I’m a decent example of the “born into not much but achieves a lot per traditional metrics” version of the American dream (which is silly given how much of it is just luck). But now I just want Chipotle.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1392489615320309760
Date: 2021-05-12 14:39:30 GMT
Replying to: @saanglee (Tweet ID: 1392481294760779778)
Body: @saanglee Oh yeah I’m certainly being a) mostly facetious b) biased toward the perspective of someone who’s already benefited from most of the stuff you said ca. as much as I can.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1392479171679604740
Date: 2021-05-12 13:58:00 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1392477431349514243)
Body: (I say this as someone who will definitely be in the U.S. "long-term" and who misses being there a lot :P)
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1392478512196595720
Date: 2021-05-12 13:55:22 GMT
Replying to: @Bryaneadamson (Tweet ID: 1392478049019510785)
Body: @Bryaneadamson Chipotle closes and I'm out, it's first on this list for a reason.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1392478138949591041
Date: 2021-05-12 13:53:53 GMT
Replying to: @alphaketchum (Tweet ID: 1392477798665687045)
Body: @AlphaKetchum The two most recent places I've been have been NYC and HK and I contest "sanitation"
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1392477431349514243
Date: 2021-05-12 13:51:05 GMT
Body: Things the U.S. has going for it:
- Chipotle
- "freedom"
- I feel like youtube blocks less stuff but that's anecdotal
Asia wins like, everything else.
Stats: 185 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 22 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391998820364423171
Date: 2021-05-11 06:09:15 GMT
Replying to: @KrisAbdelmessih (Tweet ID: 1391998210315407362)
Body: @KrisAbdelmessih Yeah I always cringe when a big trading firm advertizes they've not lost $ in a day in years. How much more should you have made in total!!!
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391992681069305863
Date: 2021-05-11 05:44:51 GMT
Replying to: @sasuke___420 (Tweet ID: 1391992509081919492)
Body: @sasuke___420 As I noted it is strictly speaking possible but we quite rarely run into it.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391992205166858242
Date: 2021-05-11 05:42:58 GMT
Replying to: @sasuke___420 (Tweet ID: 1391991529284067328)
Body: @sasuke___420 Not really once you have enough capital.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391990688674316295
Date: 2021-05-11 05:36:56 GMT
Replying to: @zackvoell (Tweet ID: 1391990613885792257)
Body: @zackvoell I WAS BUSY
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988337154560003
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988327641870338)
Body: And maximizing EV -- while still quite hard -- is at least an elegant framework to be able to use. It's still important to not let yourself get screwed, but in general betting super big and trying to maximize your expected value is right more often than people think.
Try it! https://t.co/yGh17zwaKY
Stats: 241 likes, 12 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 16 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988327641870338
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988326165450754)
Body: Most people (young, far from retirement, etc.) have the same kind of luxury we do (on a smaller scale). It's generally way more OK to lose all your $ when you're young than people realize, and I recommend carefully inspecting whether not doing so is capping your potential.
Stats: 206 likes, 30 retweets, 9 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988326165450754
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988324361932807)
Body: And eventually I joined Alameda because the upside was really just WAY too high working on these things with the best team I'd ever seen - I could run the EV numbers from back then but they're "large."
Stats: 63 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988324361932807
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988315100893184)
Body: A personal example: should I abandon my high-paying but safe job to pursue crypto trading?
This choice was easy: I made as much as my "tradfi" bonus in a few weeks trading BTC arbs, and that was that :P "EV" isn't even the word, I demonstrated the value was higher from leaving. https://t.co/rqOXzdcTOb
Stats: 73 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988315100893184
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988313695784962)
Body: Of course 1/500 is just a guess, and 50% might not be optimal -- it's possible some market dynamics *do* make this worthwhile. But it's not quite as simple as "no-risk way to maybe make a lot" because of opportunity cost.
Stats: 37 likes, 1 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988313695784962
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988311997108228)
Body: Let's say your capital would make .15%/day not tied up (from other trading, or yield farming, or whatever -- you have a better idea of this for your personal strategies). This makes your EV from trying to catch the wick
.002 * 50% + .998 * -.15% = .05%/day -- a loss!
Stats: 39 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988311997108228
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988302396280832)
Body: A "typical" giant wick is for something like 50% edge. There are a few per day, on average, and a total of 1000 or so important / liquid markets -- so say that this happens on 1/500 of big markets per day. https://t.co/8SC8F76R2o
Stats: 37 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988302396280832
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988298529185804)
Body: Crypto exchanges are known for having these weird errant prints -- so-called "wicks." If you can manage to be on the good side of these wicks, you can actually make a good amount of money!
But should you? https://t.co/gOtVmT1UeW
Stats: 51 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988298529185804
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988294980759553)
Body: Being EV-maximizing and not having to care about median (etc.) outcomes means we get to do this for big size -- we knew we'd most likely lose, but making 100 similar bets would come out way ahead.
And results aren't the important thing, but ... https://t.co/ScjtQ2Ll7y
Stats: 56 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988294980759553
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988293085011973)
Body: This makes the EV
.1 * 1000% + .9 * -75% = +32.5%
So: you're supposed to buy a TON, even though you'll USUALLY lose a lot.
(And, FWIW, I think 10% was a massive under-estimate, but whatever, "not zero" matters most.)
Stats: 78 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988293085011973
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988289133940742)
Body: Let's say that ca. January, we expect DOGE to move over the next weeks/whatever according to this distribution:
- 10%: up 1000% because Elon keeps going crazy
- 90%: down 75% because he doesn't https://t.co/3CdRPjh6B0
Stats: 63 likes, 4 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988289133940742
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988287204593665)
Body: Understanding that our best move is to try to directly maximize EV almost all the time makes a lot of decisions clearer; here are just a few examples, but this is the philosophy underpinning basically every post I have ever made:
Stats: 46 likes, 6 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988287204593665
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988277704421376)
Body: (This is as opposed to, e.g., a trading firm where everyone's trying to make $15m and then retire -- which exists! and can be true for some Alameda traders -- but which is not true generally for the collective.) https://t.co/ZLstZGnZcJ
Stats: 66 likes, 5 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988277704421376
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988276219707398)
Body: This is powerful! It lets us maximize short-term EV almost all the time, assuming we are trying to maximize overall EV longer-term. And we *are* trying to do that -- @SBF_Alameda has talked extensively about the altruistic goals Alameda operates with.
Stats: 86 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988276219707398
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988274315493381)
Body: Markets rarely have sufficient liquidity such that our bet sizing is limited by our capital base -- much more often they're limited by how much we can put on without having giant price impact. The only things we can't do because of capital are like, buy half the ETH that exists.
Stats: 57 likes, 3 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988274315493381
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988265050247169)
Body: Using the coin flip analogy, we've got $10000 instead of $10, and we can freely play the game as much as we want without having substantial risk of ruin. It's powerful, and increases our aggregate EV (per time unit since technically the EV is unbounded) since we can't go to $0. https://t.co/8wm0I7QBV5
Stats: 66 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988265050247169
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988263309611012)
Body: Why doesn't Alameda really have to do this? There are a few reasons.
Day-to-day, the big one is that we have a ton of capital, and it's legit just quite rare that losing a potential bet would cause us real harm.
Stats: 42 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988263309611012
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988259966787585)
Body: In simple terms: how much value does your first $1m give you, as compared to your 10th? Your 100th?
For most people who are just optimizing for their own happiness, utility is *definitely* sub-linear at some point -- $0 -> $1m is great, $99m -> $100m barely matters. https://t.co/JWO5ve0tju
Stats: 90 likes, 8 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988259966787585
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988257978667008)
Body: Really what's happening here is -- people's utility curves are not linear.
(Something something Kelly Criterion, not re-opening that can of worms, suffice to say many people can rationally discount EV for risk, see below for why Alameda doesn't really.)
Stats: 55 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988257978667008
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988248835072003)
Body: This is why, for instance, the insurance industry can succeed. Paying for insurance on your house is -EV -- on average, people pay more than the insurance company ever spends fixing houses. But for most, losing their house would be a giant setback. https://t.co/w0seYM7cEH
Stats: 63 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988248835072003
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988247073419264)
Body: Adjusting EV for risk is often a reasonable thing to do, especially when the risks you're taking are high relative to how much $ you have, or if losing would be especially bad for some reason.
This is the source of advice like "don't bet more than you can afford to lose."
Stats: 54 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988247073419264
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988237783027714)
Body: You've just got $10, though, and maybe you need to make sure you can buy lunch today, so you *really* don't wanna lose all of it. It's possible to imagine a reasonable utility function which *really* wants lunch and so doesn't want to play this game, even though it's +EV. https://t.co/9Th4Ry0fQV
Stats: 50 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988237783027714
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988236348624897)
Body: The *expected value* (EV) of each flip is
-$10 (cost of playing) + $.55 * 20 = $1
Meaning that each time you play, you're expected to make $1. Pretty good!
Stats: 44 likes, 1 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988236348624897
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1391988234532446210)
Body: Let's step back from trading and focus on an idealized situation which is sorta like trading. Say you've got $10 and all you're allowed to do with it is pay $10 to flip a coin which comes up heads 55% of the time, and you win $20 when it does. You can play as much as you want.
Stats: 49 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391988234532446210
Date: 2021-05-11 05:27:11 GMT
Body: I throw the term "expected value" (EV for short) around a lot. What is it, and, more important, why is it the thing that matters?
A thread about the median and the mean. https://t.co/reQYDlkM5z
Stats: 1001 likes, 249 retweets, 63 quote tweets, 27 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391710934922448898
Date: 2021-05-10 11:05:18 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1391710509871910913)
Body: @cmsholdings is this similar to how we can’t expect you to create a meme
Stats: 55 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391609968797765638
Date: 2021-05-10 04:24:06 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1391570364514422785)
Body: @cmsholdings counterpoint wearing gold makes you feel like a king
Stats: 16 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1391298226146271232
Date: 2021-05-09 07:45:20 GMT
Quoted tweet: @bringmedabir: @AlamedaTrabucco @ParisHilton https://t.co/VpA6sk5OuT
Body: paris plz https://t.co/XjlbEJOzqy
Stats: 49 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1390973597603176453
Date: 2021-05-08 10:15:23 GMT
Quoted tweet: @ParisHilton: Thinking of going to the @TheBitcoinConf in #Miami. 🤔 Who’s going? 🚀
Body: I’ll be there @ParisHilton, can we be BFFs https://t.co/jv0Y4y84m1
Stats: 159 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1390941634796212225
Date: 2021-05-08 08:08:22 GMT
Replying to: @g_swedberg (Tweet ID: 1390941094842601474)
Body: @g_swedberg Hosts are pretty rarely in Weekend Update it looks like but I agree they might mention it as a newsy thing. I feel like I don’t fully grasp impact of Elon mentioning it vs. Colin Jost, need to think on that.
Stats: 5 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1390940757658267648
Date: 2021-05-08 08:04:53 GMT
Replying to: @Lanadeltrade1 (Tweet ID: 1390940450983489540)
Body: @Lanadeltrade1 Monologue with backdoor chance at a pre-recorded commercial parody.
Stats: 40 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1390940257793634306
Date: 2021-05-08 08:02:54 GMT
Body: Studying the typical SNL episode structure to try and understand when a DOGE mention would be the most natural, AMA.
Stats: 476 likes, 26 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 59 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1390608026579595267
Date: 2021-05-07 10:02:44 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1390607739181805574)
Body: @cmsholdings @rsalame7926 intro the dog to ryan's cat
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1390563491866562567
Date: 2021-05-07 07:05:46 GMT
Replying to: @BKTalbot (Tweet ID: 1390525170176065536)
Body: @BKTalbot FTX US ;)
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1390523659962372096
Date: 2021-05-07 04:27:29 GMT
Quoted tweet: @KoroushAK: Alameda trade up to $1.5 billion every day.
@AlamedaTrabucco and I talk
- Why $DOGE was a great buy
- Risk management
- Playing poker to learn trading
- Split-second trading decisions
Pure alpha, don't miss this one.
https://t.co/ouve5UBpAd
Body: Really fun podcast to record and as mentioned I did get to talk about DOGE which is just my bread and butter at this point. https://t.co/vTEumxvMJv
Stats: 103 likes, 11 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 20 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1390218421212631048
Date: 2021-05-06 08:14:35 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1390129940931125248)
Body: @FTX_Official @SBF_Alameda it isn't good
it's great! https://t.co/1ifyyLKNM2
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1389882420497813508
Date: 2021-05-05 09:59:26 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1389656062521917448)
Body: @cmsholdings I keep petitioning for Magic: the Gathering Online markets to complete the circle back to Mt. Gox.
Stats: 44 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1389880829287927810
Date: 2021-05-05 09:53:07 GMT
Replying to: @0xKraut (Tweet ID: 1389849181238484993)
Body: @0xKraut @zhusu @kyled116 @SBF_Alameda @cmsholdings my pipe dream is writing a "Flash Boys"-style book about crypto
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1389774625148608518
Date: 2021-05-05 02:51:06 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: @AlamedaTrabucco with a very unbalanced report on $DOGE. He's bullish. Have to stop him from replacing his interview process with "will $DOGE go up or down?" https://t.co/bhsNkfgcws
Body: and just what are the criteria which would have been more predictive of recent PNL than DOGE position https://t.co/jCAazzu1AT
Stats: 24 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1389556460246298626
Date: 2021-05-04 12:24:11 GMT
Replying to: @The_Rat_Mann (Tweet ID: 1389556001049759744)
Body: @The_Rat_Mann @SplitCapital Hours+
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1389555887140835334
Date: 2021-05-04 12:21:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1389555755641016321)
Body: @SplitCapital (Funding rates or futures premia, which are basically the same thing)
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1389555755641016321
Date: 2021-05-04 12:21:23 GMT
Replying to: @SplitCapital (Tweet ID: 1389555531010895878)
Body: @SplitCapital Funding rates have been involved in almost every medium-term timescale trade I have ever done.
Stats: 34 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1389536844518346758
Date: 2021-05-04 11:06:14 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: PROM night already! https://t.co/hqukOVRaRb
Body: Fun fact: My high school prom date and I once visited @SBF_Alameda at college and tried to make him watch "Brokeback Mountain" with us -- he said no. https://t.co/VtmtDod1U5
Stats: 109 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1389521849550135300
Date: 2021-05-04 10:06:39 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: https://t.co/6uVpPGv7JC
@prometeusnet https://t.co/pd12ntb0tt
Body: PROM night already! https://t.co/hqukOVRaRb
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1389271914632286211
Date: 2021-05-03 17:33:30 GMT
Replying to: @Anassashi (Tweet ID: 1389271793500934155)
Body: @AnassFan not worth
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1389271620150124544
Date: 2021-05-03 17:32:20 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: Will @FTX_Official flip @SBF_Alameda’s followers this year?
Body: Better question — will @AlamedaTrabucco? https://t.co/JmYmp9CmcW
Stats: 26 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1389145683190448129
Date: 2021-05-03 09:11:54 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1389055986661527560)
Body: @cmsholdings it matters in my heart's scheme of the dollar
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1388763514420928513
Date: 2021-05-02 07:53:18 GMT
Replying to: @choffstein (Tweet ID: 1388491267374415879)
Body: @choffstein Yeah this amount of leverage is closer to what Alameda tends to use for spreads like this, it's still quite good :P
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1388763055383670784
Date: 2021-05-02 07:51:29 GMT
Replying to: @choffstein (Tweet ID: 1388487939907223558)
Body: @choffstein Yep, the insane buying pressure is what causes this, there's more $ buying than exists to close the arb, and the easiest way to buy with leverage is in the futures.
(I agree that in steady-state more $ should be doing the arb, fur sure)
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1388762668664647684
Date: 2021-05-02 07:49:56 GMT
Replying to: @choffstein (Tweet ID: 1388487907468451843)
Body: @choffstein Yep, Alameda does this for instance with most of our futures positions
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1388386543413329925
Date: 2021-05-01 06:55:21 GMT
Replying to: @WiseMoriarty (Tweet ID: 1388385126460141569)
Body: @WiseMoriarty right but i'm bad at chess
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1388384371581747200
Date: 2021-05-01 06:46:43 GMT
Quoted tweet: @adamscochran: Not sure why half of crypto Twitter suddenly wants to fight each other...
But to represent the need side of crypto we should have another contest.
Like I’d let @AlamedaTrabucco kick my ass at Scrabble for charity or something!
Body: in https://t.co/rOA3Ai2oOG
Stats: 35 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387784320950046722
Date: 2021-04-29 15:02:20 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1387783436526448652)
Body: @rsalame7926 @jnasty_btc Thank you for your insights.
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387782135730237441
Date: 2021-04-29 14:53:39 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1387780561633038341)
Body: @rsalame7926 @jnasty_btc How will the Solana ecosystem factor in here Ryan
Stats: 9 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387712968154959872
Date: 2021-04-29 10:18:48 GMT
Replying to: @tonyresearch (Tweet ID: 1387712882901590017)
Body: @tonyresearch not really
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387657682853646338
Date: 2021-04-29 06:39:07 GMT
Replying to: @tonyresearch (Tweet ID: 1387657410160955394)
Body: @tonyresearch @samchepal @OrthoTrading @ShreyasChari that's a shame
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387656543995273217
Date: 2021-04-29 06:34:36 GMT
Replying to: @samchepal (Tweet ID: 1387644583975157760)
Body: @samchepal @OrthoTrading @ShreyasChari @tonyresearch any thoughts
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387636124802158593
Date: 2021-04-29 05:13:27 GMT
Replying to: @michaelgmcquaid (Tweet ID: 1387635930178068483)
Body: @GrippiMcQuaid @AlamedaTrabucc0 @JayHao8 lol
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387635671532118019
Date: 2021-04-29 05:11:39 GMT
Body: I feel like @AlamedaTrabucc0 could have thought of a more convincing username.
Stats: 82 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 23 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387611514299817986
Date: 2021-04-29 03:35:40 GMT
Replying to: @masturaishak1 (Tweet ID: 1387591244667244547)
Body: @masturaishak1 @AlamedaTrabucc0 impostor
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387432426847174656
Date: 2021-04-28 15:44:02 GMT
Replying to: @adamscochran (Tweet ID: 1387428197004890117)
Body: @adamscochran how you gonna not have a token in the year of our lord 2021
Stats: 22 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387369451188678657
Date: 2021-04-28 11:33:47 GMT
Replying to: @NikoIay (Tweet ID: 1387368477149761542)
Body: @NikoIay If you’re trying to credit me with introducing COVID such that the entire financial market would crash bringing BTC with it, I’d like to refer you to the existentially worrying messages I’ve sent people about hating COVID’s impact on my life.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387359966646788098
Date: 2021-04-28 10:56:06 GMT
Replying to: @_JakeGreenstein (Tweet ID: 1387359391851163648)
Body: @_JakeGreenstein Both but mostly the former.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387357284888580097
Date: 2021-04-28 10:45:27 GMT
Replying to: @SP4CR (Tweet ID: 1387355589924343809)
Body: @SP4CR This was sorta mundane TBH -- it's the kinda errant print which advantages those who provide a ton of liquidity day in and day out.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387357009280835585
Date: 2021-04-28 10:44:21 GMT
Replying to: @themazuma (Tweet ID: 1387355646522183683)
Body: @themazuma 18 months actually :P
And this one is seared into memory.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387354342374600706
Date: 2021-04-28 10:33:45 GMT
Replying to: @Cloudyy_77k (Tweet ID: 1387353706295795719)
Body: @Cloudyy_77k I'm "Trabucco" :(
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387348415613333504
Date: 2021-04-28 10:10:12 GMT
Replying to: @_JFSM_ (Tweet ID: 1387348064176836618)
Body: @_JFSM_ Yeah we've loosened our margin requirements a little over time as things have gotten more efficient / sophisticated etc., still a lot higher than they used to be, though.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342239064420354
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342228989767683)
Body: Mistakes are natural in trading -- especially crypto trading where everything is so fucking weird. It's what you learn from your biggest mistakes that matters most, though -- and we've (thankfully) learned a lot. https://t.co/4Q8IyMcehg
Stats: 144 likes, 1 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342228989767683
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342226640891904)
Body: But from lemons we made plenty of lemonade. We changed our strategies a lot in the days/years following and have been able to do a lot better during high volatility ever since -- decreasing our median PNL but increasing our mean by a ton. And the E in EV only cares about means.
Stats: 70 likes, 3 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342226640891904
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342213797974018)
Body: We had NO capacity to do the best trades on September 25, and that's the thing that hurt way more than getting liquidated. We'd gotten greedy for not enough edge which meant we couldn't maximize when it mattered most -- and we paid the price. https://t.co/8ORuM6dRY9
Stats: 49 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342213797974018
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342211788967938)
Body: And that meant halving our typical position sizes, and keeping a TON more spare capital around to put on giant futures positions when they got to these 10% discounts ...
... like they did again on March 12! And occasionally have for short periods in the time since.
Stats: 41 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342211788967938
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342209075367936)
Body: That means if a day like that happens > 1/200 of the time (which seemed likely, and is true), it's immediately good to optimize for those days instead. And that's disregarding that you might lose a lot to getting liquidated -- which, on the positions where it happened, we did :P
Stats: 47 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342209075367936
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342191530553348)
Body: This was a crucial lesson for us! We hadn't really had to think hard about how valuable these giant move days are -- now we know how much we could make when they happen (200x the PNL of a then-normal day, conservatively). https://t.co/mskZubeWhW
Stats: 56 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342191530553348
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342189433434113)
Body: ... but this time, at least at the beginning, we sold some via liquidation :P (I don't remember the exact products or numbers here, but it was something like this)
So while we were doubling our $ on most days, we were kneecapping ourselves on the most important days of all.
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342189433434113
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342187302637574)
Body: The crash was *quick*, so, while we have systems in place for getting more collateral to the places we need it most, we couldn't save everything. Normally we'd try *really* hard to buy when, e.g., OKEx quarterlies get to a 10% discount (they did on September 25) ...
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342187302637574
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342184802787332)
Body: We'd morphed into an Icarus.
We had flown too close too the sun.
https://t.co/4xHIipMmvk
(couldn't help myself here)
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342184802787332
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342173100720129)
Body: 15% was a number we let ourselves reach when trading was *really* good -- and, in the days leading up to the crash, trading had been *really* good, with futures premia moving all over the place. But then the market crashed 20% which is > 15%, so we were in hot water. https://t.co/w7gwNQiuJ9
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342173100720129
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342171007643652)
Body: Most days? We're gonna make twice as much by doubling all our sizes. But on the rare days when the market *does* move 15%+? We're gonna have to mobilize additional collateral FAST, or we're gonna get fucked.
Stats: 29 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342171007643652
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342168151445506)
Body: What was sort of going on: we can always lever up and put on bigger positions than we are, the trade-off being higher probability of liquidation. So, maybe we're choosing between size X and 30% distance to liquidation vs. size 2X and 15% distance to liquidation.
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342168151445506
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342156097011714)
Body: As a hedge, then, we were always long something else on margin -- often, for instance, BTC perps or futures. And back then, we sometimes played things a little fast and loose, collateral-wise. https://t.co/H4f5kNEBRh
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342156097011714
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342154058670081)
Body: So, what went wrong for us? I've mentioned we used to maintain delta-neutrality. Our capital base (at the time) was heavily concentrated in BTC. To get, for instance, spot USDT to trade with, we needed to sell some of that BTC, making us naturally short all the time.
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342154058670081
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342151239995394)
Body: A 20% drop impacted the whole market, though -- liquidations happened everywhere, and various futures got to GIANT discounts as a result. Anyone with a ton of free capital could make a KILLING trading these -- buying the cheap futures vs. selling spot was even delta-neutral!
Stats: 33 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342151239995394
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342140464902144)
Body: The biggest source of liquidations back then was BitMEX BTC perps -- I used to spend a lot of time just sorta staring at that order book, moving our deltas in response to big changes -- to good effect! https://t.co/Cw0tK290Xy
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342140464902144
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:16 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342138174758918)
Body: Really, it was classic. There was some organic selling, and then there were a TON of liquidations, and that drove the market down a LOT. Because the liquidation-driven selling was inorganic, a lot of the resultant downturn reversed very fast.
Stats: 29 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342138174758918
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342131694510081)
Body: Reading through Slack from that day, there's sorta weirdly little written down -- everything, it turns out, was getting yelled frantically on the trading floor. I did screenshot one highlight though :P
Anyway: what happened that day? https://t.co/CDj1qf1WTE
Stats: 44 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342131694510081
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342123079376901)
Body: September 25, 2019 was -- at the time -- the scariest day I'd ever had trading, and I think it was maybe Alameda's worst potential vs. realized PNL day ever (we *could* have made a TON -- we, uh, didn't). https://t.co/1zIxRkoes0
Stats: 40 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342123079376901
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1387342107732582400)
Body: Alameda uses "March 12" in a Voldemort-like way -- it invokes dread like not much else, and it comes up a lot in mean vs. median discussions ("sure this usually works but it loses $5m on March 12," etc.)
Before March 12, though, there was another Terrible Day: September 25. https://t.co/9rNaDfzMmz
Stats: 40 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387342107732582400
Date: 2021-04-28 09:45:08 GMT
Body: I often talk here about decisions I/Alameda made that went well. Sometimes people ask for examples of the opposite -- times when I made a mistake and lost a lot, or even times I lost a lot by doing the right thing. Both happen a lot!
A thread about melted wings. https://t.co/82YVoSl4ZS
Stats: 439 likes, 78 retweets, 33 quote tweets, 16 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387292110726963200
Date: 2021-04-28 06:26:28 GMT
Quoted tweet: @elonmusk: The Dogefather
SNL May 8
Body: Love/hate this market. https://t.co/jm628XsJRk https://t.co/ZWlBflId0k
Stats: 125 likes, 4 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387278907242549249
Date: 2021-04-28 05:34:00 GMT
Body: alpha leek https://t.co/Y90wrCxtyz
Stats: 162 likes, 6 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1387277477412626435
Date: 2021-04-28 05:28:19 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: To provide our users with an improved experience, FTX will cease support for deposit and withdrawals on the OMNI network in the coming days.
https://t.co/HwGXUy2Bel
Body: OMNI? More like NIHIL.
I'm not sure who this tweet was "for" https://t.co/LOeTKqCDFZ
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386949432503988224
Date: 2021-04-27 07:44:47 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsholdings: We’re fighting https://t.co/MLE0onjvDt
Body: alpha https://t.co/PIxuAKYixe
Stats: 74 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386672406945689607
Date: 2021-04-26 13:23:59 GMT
Replying to: @bitcornfarmer1 (Tweet ID: 1386666853657944068)
Body: @bitcornfarmer1 @austerity_sucks feels judgy!!!!!!!!!
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386665150539726858
Date: 2021-04-26 12:55:09 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1386664464003436544)
Body: @FTX_Official @SBF_Alameda https://t.co/yRGZAC3jGj
Stats: 2 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386663781309194240
Date: 2021-04-26 12:49:43 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1386662351210913798)
Body: @FTX_Official @SBF_Alameda I saw Sam trip over nothing the other day.
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386662247959654409
Date: 2021-04-26 12:43:37 GMT
Quoted tweet: @JoePompliano: BREAKING: Trevor Lawrence has signed an endorsement deal with cryptocurrency portfolio management app Blockfolio.
The interesting part?
He accepted his "signing bonus" exclusively in crypto, which is already worth more today than when it was deposited on Friday.
(h/t @nytimes) https://t.co/hgQnDV6j7p
Body: I was like "so?" and then someone referred to him as "The Lizzo of football" and I got it. https://t.co/BLemmF7Lv7
Stats: 82 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386632536105766917
Date: 2021-04-26 10:45:33 GMT
Replying to: @DastardlyDaniel (Tweet ID: 1386632328454234113)
Body: @DastardlyDaniel @cmsholdings marked to 2023 hard to get too mad about this
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386631040639201280
Date: 2021-04-26 10:39:37 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1386627907229978628)
Body: @cmsholdings Alameda would like to make an offer to your mom.
Stats: 50 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386537814569881601
Date: 2021-04-26 04:29:10 GMT
Replying to: @tradebutwhy (Tweet ID: 1386535049193955334)
Body: @tradebutwhy Not gonna lie I barely know what technical analysis actually is.
Stats: 12 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386535661830688770
Date: 2021-04-26 04:20:37 GMT
Replying to: @WrongEndpoint (Tweet ID: 1386451748815056896)
Body: @WrongEndpoint @HsakaTrades @SBF_Alameda Not the first time my name has been used as an expletive.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386534091097399297
Date: 2021-04-26 04:14:22 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1386427654824366081)
Body: @SBF_Alameda My nightmares came back.
Stats: 37 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386307939766444036
Date: 2021-04-25 13:15:43 GMT
Replying to: @dzrgreg (Tweet ID: 1386306959943553026)
Body: @dzrgreg @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings @llamainlalaland do you wanna make money or do you wanna be right
Stats: 15 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386305496093626370
Date: 2021-04-25 13:06:01 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1386305192048697347)
Body: @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings @llamainlalaland ryan sucks i agree!!!!!
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386300828663771153
Date: 2021-04-25 12:47:28 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1386300478972104706)
Body: @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings https://t.co/viczU8nmBX
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386297216336207878
Date: 2021-04-25 12:33:07 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1386281734010904582)
Body: @cmsholdings @rsalame7926 Feel like too many people are liking these mean tweets about me and not enough are liking my pathos bait responses.
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386296243958153219
Date: 2021-04-25 12:29:15 GMT
Replying to: @theemilyaccount (Tweet ID: 1385632109696626691)
Body: @theemilyaccount @drewg__ Finally I won't be the only one who has an Hermes bag here.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386281734010904582
Date: 2021-04-25 11:31:35 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1386279960877355021)
Body: @cmsholdings @rsalame7926 guess not :(
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386200792131006464
Date: 2021-04-25 06:09:57 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1386200586299731971)
Body: @rsalame7926 ryan I thought we were friends :(
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386184243286405122
Date: 2021-04-25 05:04:12 GMT
Replying to: @cansar (Tweet ID: 1386182655033581568)
Body: @cansar when constructing the saddest possible statistic, no
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386176744672034818
Date: 2021-04-25 04:34:24 GMT
Replying to: @RRunner144 (Tweet ID: 1386175358488088576)
Body: @RRunner144 that’s the plan
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386176646474985476
Date: 2021-04-25 04:34:01 GMT
Replying to: @joybanglatrades (Tweet ID: 1386174078172602369)
Body: @Joy_Bangla_1979 @SBF_Alameda i didn’t weight by net worth so “most” still applies
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1386173940792324103
Date: 2021-04-25 04:23:16 GMT
Quoted tweet: @business: About 60% of crypto investors say their belief or investments in the space have had a negative impact on their personal relationships https://t.co/Q4U2f5Yzgy
Body: lol I haven’t seen most of my friends in 3 years https://t.co/6eyvw6MkaE
Stats: 408 likes, 12 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 19 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385588725678182400
Date: 2021-04-23 13:37:49 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1385580334180352009)
Body: @jackshaftoes @rsalame7926 booooooooooooo
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385246480026406917
Date: 2021-04-22 14:57:52 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1385246213474164743)
Body: @rsalame7926 @LeslieisHODLing @cmsholdings ooh didn’t know you dyed your hair looks good
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385246117948903424
Date: 2021-04-22 14:56:25 GMT
Replying to: @LeslieisHODLing (Tweet ID: 1385246057160871945)
Body: @LeslieisHODLing @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings no
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385244924350648322
Date: 2021-04-22 14:51:41 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1385244290952040448)
Body: @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings when my slack posts devolved into like “BOOOOOO BTC ISNT 40K YET FUUUUD” i think ryan started liking me more and i started liking me less
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385243447116767238
Date: 2021-04-22 14:45:49 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1385243174705061893)
Body: @rsalame7926 how deep we gonna go here
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385242970702577664
Date: 2021-04-22 14:43:55 GMT
Quoted tweet: @rsalame7926: One of the best parts of crypto is really how global it is, talking to and making connections between a huge range of people in like 20 different countries at any given moment https://t.co/9ugWAMdUep
Body: aww https://t.co/Utjefodjlr
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385238771080200199
Date: 2021-04-22 14:27:14 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1385216537343234052)
Body: @austerity_sucks We share one book, there's a small set of people who can control everything. And we're overall a small team and try to over-communicate on slack in general.
Stats: 5 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385238509716316164
Date: 2021-04-22 14:26:11 GMT
Replying to: @blue__mount (Tweet ID: 1385189253706096641)
Body: @blue__mount Would be arbed out if redemptions were instant + free etc. It still exists because there are net sellers and no one can arb it.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385238274575257600
Date: 2021-04-22 14:25:15 GMT
Replying to: @DefiPunk (Tweet ID: 1385237894617567238)
Body: @defi_punk I think the thing which people talk about the most but has the least actual impact on the market is stop limit order prices.
(Not sure what the question was here exactly -- we have 0 private info about anything, in any case)
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385237707958341635
Date: 2021-04-22 14:23:00 GMT
Replying to: @DefiPunk (Tweet ID: 1385235308334178307)
Body: @defi_punk Hm so we don't have any private info about this, but FWIW FTX liquidations are rare enough that they're not really helpful for anything anyway :P
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385212087157235712
Date: 2021-04-22 12:41:12 GMT
Replying to: @ThetaMentality (Tweet ID: 1385204645321089028)
Body: @ThetaMentality if there were $ in it I’d be doing 0 else
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181189871267841
Date: 2021-04-22 10:38:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385181088029450243)
Body: With great power comes great responsibility -- and when you have a super power, you've *got* to leverage it to your advantage. It can improve outcomes by orders of magnitude -- Alameda has seen that first-hand. https://t.co/SkYJcbQ1I6
Stats: 103 likes, 7 retweets, 7 quote tweets, 30 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181088029450243
Date: 2021-04-22 10:38:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385181052268806153)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Bigger is Bigger (when Betting is Better)
A thread about getting it in good.
(And a title about mocking @SBF_Alameda's little puns)
Body: And so we've slowly realized -- our ability to make good delta bets *is* like another super power, and it's one with a lot of $ on the table.
So we've embraced it, and we make BIG bets.
https://t.co/nhCIi2SRTp
Stats: 67 likes, 5 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181052268806153
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385181050595282947)
Body: Are we the only ones with 24/7 coverage? Nope, but we're among the few.
Are we the only ones who understand all this? Nope, but we're among the few.
Are we the only ones with a ton of capital? Nope, but we're among the few.
Are we the only ones with all 3?
...
...
...
Maybe?
Stats: 77 likes, 7 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181050595282947
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385181048502329349)
Body: Are we batting 1.000 with these? Nope, but WAY above average, and at this point it seems unlikely to be just random chance. And its our 24/7 info ingestion + market understanding + capital + willingness to bet big that let us do it and really maximize.
Stats: 67 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181048502329349
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385181044341575680)
Body: And even recently, this influenced how we bet on DOGE. We've held a long DOGE position for *months* and it's gone great -- all based on noticing how it goes up when Elon tweets:
- likely some bullish impetuses (Elon, TikTok, ETFs, etc.)
- more upside potential from liquidations https://t.co/PChKs60xbr
Stats: 85 likes, 5 retweets, 11 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181044341575680
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385181042240229376)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Heading into Coinbase's hotly anticipated listing, markets have been volatile, and there's been a lot of great trading to do if you know where to look.
Honestly, the trading has seemed almost ... *too* great? And pretty easy to predict.
A thread about efficiency. https://t.co/HWbngOW9C8
Body: We started doing it a LOT more when we decided that, yeah, crypto is inefficient. Delta bets always felt "icky" since they were not math-based -- using the OI stuff helped there, but ultimately we had to accept we had non-mathy edges.
https://t.co/bHTdOTBVyt
Stats: 57 likes, 3 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181042240229376
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385181031557337093)
Body: We made weeks-long bets about BCH before the recent BCH fork. We made weeks-long ETH bets ahead of ETH 2.0. We made big crypto-wide bets based on regulation news for BitMEX, the OKEx freeze, etc. etc. https://t.co/ItVc3njzar
Stats: 49 likes, 1 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181031557337093
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385181029934145540)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: During this period, when XRP was plagued by rumors about the SEC's investigation into Ripple, we realized pretty early on that XRP's price was *really* reactive to headlines -- in a fairly surprising way. https://t.co/qzNRnoum1n
Body: We've had smaller versions of the same thing unfold since -- we were plugged in to XRP enough to understand a) which news mattered b) how to bet on it c) when there would be momentum (basically, at recent highs/low, like for BTC at $20k).
https://t.co/ta7urBlue0
Stats: 34 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181027920842752
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385181023462297604)
Body: And we realized that our improved understanding of news would not only stop us from losing -- it could enable us to *win*.
When all the news about U.S. firms getting into crypto was coming out? We heard about it, and we knew it might be *huge*. So we bought $20k and held. https://t.co/9oXTGbxb8m
Stats: 52 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181023462297604
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385181021818085378)
Body: So we spent a lot of time figuring out how to stay informed. We started spending more time on social media, we encouraged our whole team to urgently share big crypto news when they learn it, etc. And this did help; we started getting picked off to news less!
Stats: 50 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181021818085378
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385181019628736515)
Body: Well, it turns out you can't exactly solve this with just your trading bots -- if you wanna have good liquidity when flow is *not* informed, you need to lose to informed flow.
The solution: be informed yourself.
Stats: 49 likes, 2 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181019628736515
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385181008467697669)
Body: We're well-known as market makers across the whole crypto market. One thing which can make providing a lot of liquidity tough is the potential to be picked off: what if someone learns important news before you and buys/sells a ton from you before you can update? https://t.co/Ye0qgakw7T
Stats: 33 likes, 2 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181008467697669
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385181006840274950)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What happened on Thanksgiving 2020?
(Market color edition -- a thread about why liquidity matters) https://t.co/jAAeUi8GA7
Body: ... and luckily we figured that out before Thanksgiving, because it's the fuel we needed to be confident in betting on getting really short at the top. Our understanding of margin + our big capital base represented a new super power few could replicate.
https://t.co/5ACxIUN0NX
Stats: 42 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181006840274950
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385181004915118082)
Body: And then we realized the set of conditions which tend to predict a ton of big liquidations -- high OI + big premia on the high-leverage platforms. Which makes it so longer-term delta bets can make sense, since maybe we're in a spot where upside potential >>> downside.
Stats: 100 likes, 12 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385181004915118082
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385180994840383490)
Body: In trading all these markets, we figured a lot of stuff out that most people just weren't likely to. For instance, we were spending a lot of time staring at the BitMEX order books -- naturally we had an advantage in gaining intuition for how its liquidations affect the market. https://t.co/wrmkdbyvNj
Stats: 56 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385180994840383490
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385180992948764678)
Body: Elements of that remain true! And it remains something we do a lot of.
But over time, we found out we had other super powers -- some of them really important.
(A special lasso? X-ray vision? This really isn't my genre, I should've used a different metaphor.)
Stats: 39 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385180992948764678
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385180982756577280)
Body: Superman and Wonder Woman are impressive because no one else can fly (or whatever, IDK) -- and Alameda was *really* profitable because basically no one else had our combo of capital, understanding of the markets, and exchange / bank / tech setups. https://t.co/6pzO755LPH
Stats: 70 likes, 7 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385180982756577280
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385180981032747009)
Body: Why do I mention all this? Well, in Alameda's first years, we viewed arbs and spreads as our advantage. We *knew* we could make $$$ closing them, and we determined empirically we were among the only ones who could (or would, at least) for big size. It made sense to focus on this.
Stats: 60 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385180981032747009
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385180979401084931)
Body: At the end of the day, we *are* just trying to maximize EV -- we've got capital, tech, and human resources to do that, and we think crypto is what we should focus on for the time being, but we're thrilled to add more focuses as they pop up.
Stats: 81 likes, 4 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385180979401084931
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385180977601732609)
Body: An interview candidate recently asked me what big projects we expect to do over the next year. My answer was: if you'd told me 1 year ago that 30% of our trader time would be spent trawling yield farms, I'd have asked you "what's a yield farm?"
Stats: 96 likes, 6 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385180977601732609
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385180967443177474)
Body: How do I know? Well, even though it's *technically* still intra-crypto, this is sorta exactly what happened when yield farming took off. Focusing a ton of time and capital on yield farming represented a *huge* strategic shift for us -- but it's one we mobilized almost overnight. https://t.co/j9RgnpPWqy
Stats: 52 likes, 2 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385180967443177474
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385180965325066245)
Body: Let's say that, overnight, the sports betting markets 1000x'ed in size. What would we do? I can pretty confidently say we'd highly prioritize setting up the infra for data ingestion and trade placement to start doing it immediately, and work hard on models ASAP, too.
Stats: 64 likes, 6 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385180965325066245
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385180954130538502)
Body: But a slightly more enlightening answer: it's the thing with a lot of $ on the table where we have the biggest advantage. There's plenty of $ in equities too, of course -- but we've found that our advantages trading crypto make it the correct thing to focus on (for now!). https://t.co/5xWX0sUyIp
Stats: 58 likes, 5 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385180954130538502
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385180952091979776)
Body: The basic answer: it's where the money is. We could make a bunch of sports betting models -- likely some of the world's best! -- but the money in crypto just makes it better. And sadly (for me), the money in competitive Scrabble is nothing to write home about.
Stats: 128 likes, 4 retweets, 7 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385180952091979776
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1385180941186789384)
Body: Let's back up a little: why does Alameda trade crypto? Why don't we do something else, like equities options trading? Or sports betting? Or competitive Scrabble?
(Incidentally, these are all things various team members have done or still do :P) https://t.co/LbEGK2voYs
Stats: 60 likes, 3 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385180941186789384
Date: 2021-04-22 10:37:26 GMT
Body: 2 years ago, Alameda maintained pretty strict delta neutrality most of the time, generally trying quite hard to make sure our PNL was from spreads and arbs. Today, not so much -- we got ... uh, really long in winter 2020, for instance. What changed?
A thread about super powers. https://t.co/0Qo2DEAAYf
Stats: 626 likes, 119 retweets, 68 quote tweets, 24 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1385153425709490179
Date: 2021-04-22 08:48:06 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 3) yes, it can
Body: shit https://t.co/Ub4EyhVOEe
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384771596229877760
Date: 2021-04-21 07:30:51 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1384771364460974089)
Body: @FTX_Official @lawmaster @noahdummett noah when was your birthday? didn't know you turned the big 1-0
Stats: 11 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384409353839550469
Date: 2021-04-20 07:31:25 GMT
Replying to: @danman16609185 (Tweet ID: 1384408250792226816)
Body: @danman16609185 I would never give investment advice.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384398507876884480
Date: 2021-04-20 06:48:19 GMT
Replying to: @Cryptolyx (Tweet ID: 1384398311285796865)
Body: @Cryptolyx Oh, "long because of asymmetric upside potential vs. downside" is a trade we've done for big size -- I meant specifically DOGE = .42 today :P
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384397745188851713
Date: 2021-04-20 06:45:17 GMT
Quoted tweet: @WSBChairman: Dogecoin at .420 on Dogeday 4/20 https://t.co/l9sXLvBRhI
Body: IN RETROSPECT IT WAS INEVITABLE
(this is probably the thing I missed which I'm most ashamed of) https://t.co/CyVyGZ7DdK
Stats: 254 likes, 15 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384375433550983171
Date: 2021-04-20 05:16:38 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1384375342010310659)
Body: @FTX_Official @DefiDiogenesYFI @burglol name 5
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384375235214864392
Date: 2021-04-20 05:15:51 GMT
Replying to: @loserleaves (Tweet ID: 1384374448904708105)
Body: @loserleaves @DefiDiogenesYFI @FTX_Official @burglol @Handi50419506 and @rsalame7926 have pretty cute cats
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384373729006739458
Date: 2021-04-20 05:09:52 GMT
Replying to: @DefiDiogenesYFI (Tweet ID: 1384373615659937794)
Body: @DefiDiogenesYFI @FTX_Official @burglol cat maxi
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384373284804861952
Date: 2021-04-20 05:08:06 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1384356009582370817)
Body: @FTX_Official @burglol burg's dogs are becoming a little too prominent for my taste
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384177682447888385
Date: 2021-04-19 16:10:50 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1384161534528483330)
Body: @cmsintern @FTX_Official @jackshaftoes @cmsholdings @RaydiumProtocol @dadadadaffy framing this https://t.co/PwBUWQwYRg
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384148017209511941
Date: 2021-04-19 14:12:58 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1384147727873761281)
Body: @jackshaftoes @tonyresearch https://t.co/2piH8KPATG
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384145962029834249
Date: 2021-04-19 14:04:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1384145867653799943)
Body: @tonyresearch tried to get me not to tweet this
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384145867653799943
Date: 2021-04-19 14:04:25 GMT
Body: s(he) (s)truck g(old)
Stats: 81 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384118943191748608
Date: 2021-04-19 12:17:26 GMT
Replying to: @tonyresearch (Tweet ID: 1384118662370500626)
Body: @tonyresearch He threw a chair at us when we asked him to pose for a photo.
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384058499890483201
Date: 2021-04-19 08:17:15 GMT
Replying to: @SLadington (Tweet ID: 1384056583827582977)
Body: @SLadington @blue__mount ah lol, yeah deribit is not really much of a factor :P
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1384010003326013442
Date: 2021-04-19 05:04:33 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1384007178940403712)
Body: @SBF_Alameda A wild night.
Stats: 111 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383987194356846597
Date: 2021-04-19 03:33:55 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1383937149037252611)
Body: @cmsholdings @ChipotleTweets @SBF_Alameda plz list chipotle
Stats: 41 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383831300017057795
Date: 2021-04-18 17:14:26 GMT
Replying to: @JstSomeGuy (Tweet ID: 1383830960311922693)
Body: @JstSomeGuy Perps were trading a few % over spot at the bottom, quarterlies even more. It's the reverse of the trend from the past X weeks, and was even *closing* for us since we've mostly just been short perps lately to collect funding.
Stats: 2 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383829845390422021
Date: 2021-04-18 17:08:40 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1383828422091149318)
Body: @cmsholdings ZOOM OUT DAN
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383828177772969995
Date: 2021-04-18 17:02:02 GMT
Replying to: @Fr1edR1ce (Tweet ID: 1383828066690953229)
Body: @Fr1edR1ce IDK about "we" but mostly I like making money!!!
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383827926454468608
Date: 2021-04-18 17:01:02 GMT
Replying to: @burglol (Tweet ID: 1383826078846783494)
Body: @burglol Are you worried about excluding notable over-performer DOGE from this analyiss?
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383825292435738635
Date: 2021-04-18 16:50:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383824753698344965)
Body: @blue__mount Yeah actually I don't even understand the claim there, binance perps are the most important thing here and at the time he posted that they were paying 45bp/day -> shorts.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383824753698344965
Date: 2021-04-18 16:48:26 GMT
Replying to: @blue__mount (Tweet ID: 1383824440614539265)
Body: @blue__mount Yeah it went down a bit but the key thing is as the OI was skyrocketing the premia were gigantic. And they were still decently high til a cycle or so before the big crash.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383823305191292938
Date: 2021-04-18 16:42:40 GMT
Replying to: @milkyway16eth (Tweet ID: 1383818953521172481)
Body: @vallard14 nice
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383822456608067591
Date: 2021-04-18 16:39:18 GMT
Replying to: @blue__mount (Tweet ID: 1383822243780718596)
Body: @blue__mount Til today perps were paying a LOT, no?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383821096143659010
Date: 2021-04-18 16:33:54 GMT
Replying to: @LeoFutures (Tweet ID: 1383815936516366346)
Body: @LeoFutures My favorite part about Alameda is that someone will always wake me up :P
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383816467972431883
Date: 2021-04-18 16:15:30 GMT
Replying to: @NaniXBT (Tweet ID: 1383816116061966342)
Body: @NaniXBT Yeah sometimes I think it's annoying as all hell and other times I remember how great it is for us :P
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383816261520433152
Date: 2021-04-18 16:14:41 GMT
Replying to: @HsakaTrades (Tweet ID: 1383814262653526025)
Body: @HsakaTrades Aww <3
Also I love Alamoeba, one of my fav things to come from that episode.
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383815208133554178
Date: 2021-04-18 16:10:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813285175128067)
Quoted tweet: @roshunpatel: looks like BTC June was over levered, backwardation against the perps, which were already cheap to spot, lasted for over a half hour last night. ETH didn't see similar, other coins held up relatively well in spot and curve. A rather BTC specific liquidation night i'd say https://t.co/jrP9v3CiM7
Body: Oh I definitely linked to the wrong thread here LOL, I meant to this:
https://t.co/1mCjBHLxzQ
Sorry Larry + Roshun!
Stats: 20 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813314191380486
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813303617552390)
Body: Next time premia and OIs are way up and there's some organic reversion? Alameda will know what to do, and now so will you! https://t.co/xJinIU0pMQ
Stats: 466 likes, 22 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 34 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813303617552390
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813301860061189)
Body: It's super valuable to learn from past events in crypto. It's all so idiosyncratic, that when we as traders are blessed with a big opportunity which is similar to one we've seen before, we have a BIG advantage over the market. And this was basically just Thanksgiving again!
Stats: 193 likes, 9 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813299364454420
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813294905970690)
Body: Note, BTW, altcoins had similar movement but with (mostly) >1 beta, again as usual. XRP, for instance, fell a LOT today, because its OI increases were WAY higher vs. (weekend :P) liquidity than e.g. BTC's. That means it has way stronger momentum-y moves, as we keep seeing. https://t.co/sRwM34C0GX
Stats: 77 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813294905970690
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813293043712017)
Body: So! Over time (around an hour, a.k.a. the BTC block speed), the spreads started closing more, and the market rallied back somewhat -- again, just what we expect post-giant liquidations. Since NO ONE wanted to sell anything that cheap, of course they'll buy back.
Stats: 104 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813293043712017
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813290950729729)
Body: We then prioritized freeing capital from margin and whatnot to sell more and kept doing the trade, but this is the sort of reason why these things don't just evaporate immediately -- crypto margin is REALLY inefficient compared to tradfi margin with prime brokers.
Stats: 117 likes, 2 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813290950729729
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813287066755077)
Body: Alameda was there, though! We bought a TON of 'em, and even slowed down at various points to maximize our prices. The limiting factor was our capacity to hedge, and lemme tell you, our capacity to hedge (by selling spot) started out GIANT! https://t.co/brPLbmtPbu
Stats: 115 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813287066755077
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813285175128067)
Body: (Again, I've seen some complex theories about this, but many billions of $ got liquidated on a weekend after a price move -- there were not many bids relative to that, and a 15% crash + a lot more for some less liquid products is just about right.)
Stats: 84 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813285175128067
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813283405205521)
Body: ... a fall to $50k is pretty much exactly what I'd expect. Futures ended up at GIANT discounts, in some cases (see Larry's thread above, e.g.) in part also because of low liquidity -- fewer big players with big bankrolls to swoop in and close the gaps.
Stats: 106 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813283405205521
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813281115082761)
Body: I talked on Thanksgiving about how low liquidity exacerbated the impact of the liquidations -- the same is true (though less so, on average) on weekends. With the quantity of liquidations we saw (HUGE, but explained by the OI increases) and weekend liquidity ...
Stats: 92 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813281115082761
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813279349317641)
Quoted tweet: @lawmaster: A lot of crazy shit happened overnight but did anyone see the clusterfuck of what happened on Perp Protocol? Ethereum hit sub $900 there for a while https://t.co/AeSqDgHm1t
Body: And, as we've said, it wasn't just perps where the big buyers were -- it was everywhere. In per day basis, most futures were close to each other, but that means quarterlies are at way higher premia -- and fall a TON more when the market crashes.
https://t.co/FRGz9KR1Ja
Stats: 105 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813279349317641
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813277520519169)
Body: And so crypto falling a bit makes sense. What does that mean for all the super aggro levered longs?
The same thing it always means -- they're getting liquidated. Many billions of $ did today!
Stats: 124 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813277520519169
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813275012407305)
Body: I've seen a lot of complex theories for why crypto *started* crashing, but I don't think you really need 'em. BTC rallied from 60k -> 65k in the days pre-COIN, fell to 62k quickly, and then ... well, fell to 60k over the next weekend. Kinda no biggie and exactly what I'd expect?
Stats: 156 likes, 11 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813275012407305
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813264333623298)
Body: If things keep going up and up and up? Well, nothing. A bunch of aggro buyers who it turned out were right.
But what about if there's a reason for a small downturn? A reason like, IDK, a super-hyped listing causing a rally and then falling short of the hype? https://t.co/GgbCMHoz3s
Stats: 128 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813264333623298
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813262148390912)
Body: So, futures have been at -- vs. the recent past -- unprecedentedly high premia, and OIs are skyrocketing. What does this set up?
Stats: 84 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813262148390912
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813257060773892)
Body: Moreover, open interest for a ton of contracts was REALLY going up -- for BTC, but, in some cases, even moreso for various altcoins. Here's a random few hour period of the OI of XRP perps on binance -- most periods lately where we pulled this looked similar :P https://t.co/5t4xBO3rYh
Stats: 94 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813257060773892
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813252983885824)
Body: And the same is true for quarterlies, and really just the whole market. Here's a graph of a bunch of BTC futures premia to spot over the last few weeks (annualized) -- heading into COIN things got *really* aggressive across the board! But it's been elevated for a while https://t.co/a8RQcJ5k3q
Stats: 101 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813252983885824
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813251037757443)
Body: Futures premia have been REALLY high -- I'm sure everyone's heard how high the funding has gotten for various perpetuals products, and that signifies a TON of super aggressive buying going on -- Alameda has basically just been selling perps vs. buying spot for HUGE size lately.
Stats: 181 likes, 3 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813251037757443
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813248252739591)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What happened on Thanksgiving 2020?
(Market color edition -- a thread about why liquidity matters) https://t.co/jAAeUi8GA7
Body: ... sorta like the ones that happened on Thanksgiving 2020 ;)
https://t.co/POuO8KLNdf
Stats: 125 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813248252739591
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813231651655686)
Body: All throughout this big rally, there were a few weird things going on. Almost all the inflows were happening on futures platforms, and in particular on futures platforms with HUGE leverage, and where that huge leverage has historically led to big liquidiations ... https://t.co/90IaxLxBxL
Stats: 208 likes, 13 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813231651655686
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813229533536267)
Body: And, as I noted in that thread, crypto started crashing. But it didn't reverse all its gains! Might this signal that a lot of the rally was "organic" or whatever, and wasn't going to revert?
Maybe! But if you were paying attention, there were clues to the contrary.
Stats: 104 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813229533536267
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813227037925379)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: The crypto market is reacting broadly basically how I thought -- the world is all watching this, the world all expects BTC to be correlated to COIN right now (since Coinbase's success is seen as something of a proxy for success of BTC in the US), so crypto is crashing. https://t.co/AKMqKxGgbu
Body: The COIN listing came and went. And it's hard to say that it was anything but a pretty big disappointment vs. the market's hopes (and, certainly, amidst the market's hype-driven rally).
https://t.co/0nRosJf5rW
Stats: 99 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813227037925379
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383813221815967746)
Body: For the past week or so, crypto has been on a tear. It's risen slowly but steadily from the mid-$50s to new highs over $65k, seemingly without a ton of fanfare. Amidst excitement over the COIN direct listing, parts of this seemed almost inevitable. https://t.co/hx7ubsQvXr
Stats: 137 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383813221815967746
Date: 2021-04-18 16:02:36 GMT
Body: Haven't done one of these in a while: what happened in the crypto markets today?
A thread about the past and the future. https://t.co/M3pi5dzC0O
Stats: 2306 likes, 522 retweets, 102 quote tweets, 67 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383718484769611777
Date: 2021-04-18 09:46:09 GMT
Replying to: @Giannnn42152375 (Tweet ID: 1383706265449234441)
Body: @Giannnn42152375 @SBF_Alameda @FTX_Official I do not work for FTX and do not influence its listings plz do not spam me with this :(
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383666416625225735
Date: 2021-04-18 06:19:15 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1383665007813042179)
Body: @SBF_Alameda I thought weekends got canceled in 2018? Did you make that up.
Stats: 47 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383666271942692870
Date: 2021-04-18 06:18:41 GMT
Replying to: @adamscochran (Tweet ID: 1383654764152451073)
Body: @adamscochran @Deivida38815768 @SBF_Alameda I'd pay to be in this group.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383662695040180225
Date: 2021-04-18 06:04:28 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1383654222541979658)
Body: @cmsintern @Travis_Kling It's important to be versatile.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383653891586203653
Date: 2021-04-18 05:29:29 GMT
Replying to: @JstSomeGuy (Tweet ID: 1383653735071580164)
Body: @JstSomeGuy idk a few hours, got a lot of cleanup to do
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383652025724936197
Date: 2021-04-18 05:22:04 GMT
Quoted tweet: @adamscochran: One of my preferred informal signals for finding the bottom of a big dip is whenever @SBF_Alameda or @AlamedaTrabucco start liking or posting things on Twitter as that usually means the market has calmed down enough for them to look away...
Body: lol https://t.co/OYLszc88eV
Stats: 78 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383392435712139269
Date: 2021-04-17 12:10:33 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: The FTX Podcast: Live Trader Panel
Featuring: @AlamedaTrabucco, @RaydiumProtocol, @cmsholdings, @dadadadaffy and @jackshaftoes as host.
10am SGT, Monday 19th - 8pm PT, Sunday 18th
Don't miss it! It will be live on Youtube and the link will be shared before the event. https://t.co/cTfiItHG8T
Body: I was told this would be called “Asia vs. America: Who Bought More DOGE” https://t.co/STcxCarw5E
Stats: 21 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383350608984375297
Date: 2021-04-17 09:24:21 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: Imagine making this list and not putting @brian741 on it
https://t.co/uRjQVarjh1
Body: I've been to not 0 of their apartments, am I a celebrity. https://t.co/ptp8UYQ700
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383027290158735363
Date: 2021-04-16 11:59:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1383027071115431937)
Body: Except for my DOGE liquidity which decidedly does know a direction, and that's the direction in which all its millions of $ of liquidations today have pointed, too.
Stats: 27 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1383027071115431937
Date: 2021-04-16 11:58:43 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsholdings: Good morning thanks for the liquidity https://t.co/NIYicm3rW9
Body: My liquidity knows no direction. https://t.co/9Zg7jSojKy
Stats: 42 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382955636103647233
Date: 2021-04-16 07:14:52 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: Have you been curious about https://t.co/Ch5vKsHyP8 but not sure where to start? Let this article be a guide to easily automating your trading.
https://t.co/j7UqVMrOY9
Body: For April Fool's or something, Alameda once thought about transitioning all our trading to the QZ for the day. It turned out to be a little closer to possible than we thought! https://t.co/C2dGmmXhhi
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382900900654505985
Date: 2021-04-16 03:37:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382900587562377217)
Body: @experquisite @TheSpeculator0 @NewRiverInvest @choffstein @JaEsf FWIW, firms like Alameda put these spreads on for quite large size, and still the premia persist -- the capital needed to close them is really just massive.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382900587562377217
Date: 2021-04-16 03:36:07 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382900422520631299)
Body: @experquisite @TheSpeculator0 @NewRiverInvest @choffstein @JaEsf Closing the spread wouldn't have a ton of directional market impact since it would still be delta-neutral -- it would, however, require a TON of capital, and that's why no one has done it.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382900422520631299
Date: 2021-04-16 03:35:28 GMT
Replying to: @experquisite (Tweet ID: 1382855811253288969)
Body: @experquisite @TheSpeculator0 @NewRiverInvest @choffstein @JaEsf It exists mostly because people wanna buy a lot -- and a lot vs. their own $, it turns out -- and leverage is higher for derivatives than for spot, so futures tend to trade at a large premium in response.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382825690299465730
Date: 2021-04-15 22:38:30 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Where is my alpaca? https://t.co/f8PeWudqtz
Body: Thank you @AlpacaFinance for your quick turn-around here. https://t.co/dUJI8hLpjZ https://t.co/FjnVrSpBjH
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382402385461399554
Date: 2021-04-14 18:36:27 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: We'll see what happens when this thing finally lists! I'm expecting more of the same -- if the market thinks COIN is doing well, crypto / EXCH will follow, and vice-versa.
I'd forgotten how painfully slow traditional market listings are, crypto has me spoiled. https://t.co/yVp2lkCJy9
Body: Went down a *little*, but mostly was disappointing vs. expectation / all the hype, and BTC crashed, EXCH crashed more. My work here is done! https://t.co/pmMFjYmY5P
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382397172608503813
Date: 2021-04-14 18:15:44 GMT
Replying to: @TheStalwart (Tweet ID: 1382396910577848325)
Body: @TheStalwart @SBF_Alameda hm I guess so insofar as our account is just identical to other users' and we also don't have any access to private info like anything about other users, etc.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382396675239514113
Date: 2021-04-14 18:13:45 GMT
Replying to: @TheStalwart (Tweet ID: 1382395766493343748)
Body: @TheStalwart @SBF_Alameda I am one such user (specifically, Alameda does)
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382390850315980804
Date: 2021-04-14 17:50:36 GMT
Replying to: @lakejynch (Tweet ID: 1382388028602249218)
Body: @lakejynch @cmsholdings @FEhrsam my family was always more about southern maine
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382381435202412546
Date: 2021-04-14 17:13:12 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1382380414220787720)
Body: @cmsintern @IamNomad well played cms intern
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382377351888052230
Date: 2021-04-14 16:56:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382377282149371905)
Body: @burglol @SBF_Alameda 6) not investment advice
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382377282149371905
Date: 2021-04-14 16:56:42 GMT
Replying to: @burglol (Tweet ID: 1382376811733012480)
Body: @burglol @SBF_Alameda ooh is it like
3) FTX bought NASDAQ
4) sam is janet yellen
5) FTT is U.S. currency now
Stats: 8 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382376130703814659
Date: 2021-04-14 16:52:07 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1382375835127087113)
Body: @SBF_Alameda how many of them are FTX
Stats: 43 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382371142153900032
Date: 2021-04-14 16:32:18 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1382370952445583361)
Body: @cmsintern @IamNomad cms intern why am i not in this video
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382358883289600003
Date: 2021-04-14 15:43:35 GMT
Replying to: @earlybirdly (Tweet ID: 1382358732319956996)
Body: @earlybirdly Nope, for IPOs (and direct listings) they wait til enough is matched in the pre-open auction.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382358429864402949
Date: 2021-04-14 15:41:47 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1382345541204504577)
Body: @cmsholdings wow "the cape" is such a throwback, i always forget how i'm from massachusetts
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382357685694132233
Date: 2021-04-14 15:38:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382357676248633348)
Body: We'll see what happens when this thing finally lists! I'm expecting more of the same -- if the market thinks COIN is doing well, crypto / EXCH will follow, and vice-versa.
I'd forgotten how painfully slow traditional market listings are, crypto has me spoiled. https://t.co/yVp2lkCJy9
Stats: 29 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382357676248633348
Date: 2021-04-14 15:38:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382357672347897857)
Body: And the worst performers of all? The likes of BNB and other exchange tokens, who are seen as *especially* correlated with COIN and Coinbase more generally. When the indics first started crashing, BNB *really* underperformed -- it's recovered some but not totally vs. BTC. https://t.co/pPBYdhUT0i
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382357672347897857
Date: 2021-04-14 15:38:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382357667897696256)
Body: The crypto market is reacting broadly basically how I thought -- the world is all watching this, the world all expects BTC to be correlated to COIN right now (since Coinbase's success is seen as something of a proxy for success of BTC in the US), so crypto is crashing. https://t.co/AKMqKxGgbu
Stats: 12 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382357667897696256
Date: 2021-04-14 15:38:45 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Heading into Coinbase's hotly anticipated listing, markets have been volatile, and there's been a lot of great trading to do if you know where to look.
Honestly, the trading has seemed almost ... *too* great? And pretty easy to predict.
A thread about efficiency. https://t.co/HWbngOW9C8
Body: So far, auction indications have been a bit lower than I think the market was expecting (e.g. where it was trading on FTX earlier).
On FTX, it's fallen to close to that indic price: https://t.co/ODTcd7kaM2 https://t.co/6UyZ8HS6l6
Stats: 28 likes, 2 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382354558832181248
Date: 2021-04-14 15:26:24 GMT
Replying to: @dmosinee (Tweet ID: 1382350245544271875)
Body: @dmosinee oh I live in HK, oops
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382334845540466691
Date: 2021-04-14 14:08:04 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1382333348597493772)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @lawmaster 150.0001b
Stats: 41 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382324239810715651
Date: 2021-04-14 13:25:55 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Heading into Coinbase's hotly anticipated listing, markets have been volatile, and there's been a lot of great trading to do if you know where to look.
Honestly, the trading has seemed almost ... *too* great? And pretty easy to predict.
A thread about efficiency. https://t.co/HWbngOW9C8
Body: Vol has calmed down, most stuff up and down a bit but noit moving out of the $64k or equivalent range (BNB down a little since my tweets I guess).
Calm before the storm. https://t.co/ODTcd7kaM2 https://t.co/crbFGUJZEg
Stats: 26 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382258317586694144
Date: 2021-04-14 09:03:58 GMT
Replying to: @joybanglatrades (Tweet ID: 1382257116568702978)
Body: @Joy_Bangla_1979 @rsalame7926 and I both made $ on this, yes.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382250653037187073
Date: 2021-04-14 08:33:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382250077649915904)
Body: @NonFungibleWMN (for the record I actually think Paris Hilton's brand is genius and she deserves a decent amount of credit for pioneering this sort of intentional branding)
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382250253018013697
Date: 2021-04-14 08:31:55 GMT
Replying to: @blue__mount (Tweet ID: 1382248983272292355)
Body: @blue__mount To the extent that it's been a factor in BTC's recent rally, I'd expect large underperformance to impact BTC negatively. Def less certain than the exchange token impact though!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382250077649915904
Date: 2021-04-14 08:31:14 GMT
Replying to: @NonFungibleWMN (Tweet ID: 1382247860767379463)
Body: @NonFungibleWMN a beautiful tribute to her passion for NFTs
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382246376436748290
Date: 2021-04-14 08:16:31 GMT
Quoted tweet: @ParisHilton: Love my baby Crypto Hilton. 🥰🐶 #HiltonPets 🐾 https://t.co/D9g52IHu0I
Body: My bad, THIS is why DOGE is up. https://t.co/VQrrEAtpH6
Stats: 45 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244210447814657
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244201199325192)
Body: The big lesson for me here has been: don't over-think what's obvious. Crypto is still evolving and part of that is that the clear trade is so often the good trade, and deciding to just accept that and put it on big is often enough. Less is more! https://t.co/yvjqSOolGs
Stats: 72 likes, 3 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244201199325192
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244199173550082)
Body: The most important thing, I think, will be staying REALLY vigilant about how COIN is doing -- one place where efficiency CAN pop up is when the whole world is watching the same thing, and if COIN e.g. moons, the world will know to buy BTC.
Stats: 21 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244199173550082
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244190252265474)
Body: *one of my first failed investments was SNAP back when I had recently graduated college, I wish I'd just been shitcoining a few years earlier instead. https://t.co/bKF01bs4MP
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244190252265474
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244188771602436)
Body: But, I am not sure if COIN's listing will follow that pattern -- it's sort of hard to exaggerate just how hyped this thing is, in a way which makes it seem possibly categorically different from the SNAPs* of the world.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244188771602436
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244187303673862)
Body: It's a little more ambiguous, sadly. Many tech IPOs have a predictable pattern of getting over-hyped and then crashing -- if that does happen, *probably* that's bad for crypto in the predictable ways -- I'd definitely bet on that.
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244187303673862
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244185282027521)
Body: All these trades were the naively good thing to do, and all of them went exactly as expected. So what should we expect going forward?
Stats: 10 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244185282027521
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244180961886212)
Body: And FTT is (happily :P) doing something analogous, and with less idiosyncratic stuff like burns and liquidations (though it does have some 🔥 of its own). This is a more direct piece of evidence that the world is valuing all exchanges higher amidst Coinbase excitement. https://t.co/aOdpIiNqGZ
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244180961886212
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244176880750594)
Body: ... and those tokens are mostly the best performers of the past few weeks. BNB is outperforming BTC by like 100% since the start of April! There have actually been some liquidations there too, and also burn excitement, but it's mostly just been COIN follow-on. https://t.co/X7EQlH37cc
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244176880750594
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244174901125120)
Body: Another big effect you'd just naively expect: Coinbase is an exchange. With its valuation going up and excitement around it growing, won't other exchanges get some excitement, too?
Luckily, crypto exchanges mostly have tokens which act as proxies ...
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244174901125120
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244171231076352)
Body: ... which is just what you'd expect with every coin at its ATH and XRP having had more shorts opened recently. Similar story in DOGE, actually -- this graph is the result of some organic interest (moreso because Coinbase and Elon have some correlation), but mostly liquidations. https://t.co/Y0azTM38eR
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244171231076352
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244169188478977)
Body: Sadly I have to report that this price graph is not the result of organic buying. SOME organic buying, yes -- just the follow-through from the crypto rally. But mostly, XRP shorts have gotten liquidated WAY more than other coins ...
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244169188478977
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244165719760896)
Body: XRP is up a TON lately. It's at (essentially) its ATH, by a lot, and has gotten there super recently. AND, just a few months ago, people had HUGE incentive to short it aggressively -- there's a lot of OI just waiting to get liquidated.
And get liquidated it has. https://t.co/QKuaOpSlJe
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244165719760896
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244163912028160)
Body: BTC has mostly cleared out its short positions to liquidate on the way up, but some other coins have pretty large high-leverage OI compared to ADV, and have not had as much chance to liquidate them.
Enter XRP.
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244163912028160
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244162272071683)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What happened on Thanksgiving 2020?
(Market color edition -- a thread about why liquidity matters) https://t.co/jAAeUi8GA7
Body: Cool, so BTC was predictably gonna go up. What else?
Remember all my talk about liquidations creating momentum? That's evolved a little.
https://t.co/POuO8KLNdf
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244162272071683
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244160283942916)
Body: Side note: it took me YEARS to categorically get past the first thought there. My instincts all come from traditional finance where markets sort of are efficient, and "buy hype the day before an event the world knew about for weeks" is WAY less good as a result.
Stats: 33 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244160283942916
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244156492320771)
Body: My first thought here was: well, crypto is already up because of the U.S. narrative, why should it go up more?
My second thought is: wait, right, crypto is inefficient, hype -> rally. And ... https://t.co/Coa3Oopxjf
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244156492320771
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244154529382403)
Body: In a "macro sense," the Coinbase listing is *huge* for crypto. Everyone's talking about it in both crypto and finance circles, it represents yet another step forward for U.S. adoption, and it just sort of clearly has good implications for crypto.
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244154529382403
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244145431863297)
Body: Well, it means that the obvious trades are often pretty good -- what are the obvious trades?
For Coinbase, what are those obvious trades? https://t.co/NjDWBa7fZw
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244145431863297
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244143670333440)
Body: So, we've seen time and again that crypto is really just not efficient. Which makes sense! Most established firms (with news desks and whatnot) are not trading it much, disjointed margin systems allow "arbs" to sit there, etc.
What does that mean here?
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244143670333440
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244141690540037)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: March 12, 2020 was the hardest* day** of my life. A year later, it sticks out more clearly as the most interesting situation I've ever been faced with -- and one from which I've learned a ton. Here are a few lessons I learned directly from March 12: https://t.co/z3FoVmE39N
Body: And let's just say the market kinda had no potential to be efficient on March 12, 2020 -- big traders were sort of "incapacitated" and prices were allowed to be all over the place. Smaller-scale versions of this happen all the time!
https://t.co/pkgA6JPDIh
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244141690540037
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244139442475015)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: During the week or so when lots of news about XRP was coming out, we realized early on it was reacting kinda ... idiosyncratically. What did we do in response?
https://t.co/ta7urBlue0
Body: The market's super predictable response to each piece of news about XRP is an example as well; an efficient market would have priced future (predictable) news in as soon as any news happened.
https://t.co/j9Ql4tmJlv
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244139442475015
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244135554387971)
Quoted tweet: @elonmusk: ur welcome https://t.co/e2KF57KLxb
Body: Remember DOGE? It has actually just been possible to buy DOGE when Elon tweets (human timescale is fine here -- you've got minutes before the price really skyrockets) and sell an hour later. This is *not* efficient!
https://t.co/eSoXpU7Azs https://t.co/ITnS62xLUQ
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244135554387971
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244133931151364)
Body: This shouldn't be a *giant* surprise, but the answer is: not really :P
A priori this might not be totally clear, but we've seen time and again the markets just not move in the obvious direction for what seems like an eternity:
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244133931151364
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1382244132022755329)
Body: Let me first discuss this notion more generally -- efficiency. A market is called *efficient* if prices in the market consistently reflect some true fair value, based on all possible data at the time -- trade history, blockchain data, news, etc.
How efficient are crypto markets?
Stats: 12 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1382244132022755329
Date: 2021-04-14 08:07:36 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: https://t.co/3wOOXtp7Ft
An update on Coinbase pre-IPO contract logistics https://t.co/LUawyeFvQ6 https://t.co/EWxR3Tl4CE
Body: Heading into Coinbase's hotly anticipated listing, markets have been volatile, and there's been a lot of great trading to do if you know where to look.
Honestly, the trading has seemed almost ... *too* great? And pretty easy to predict.
A thread about efficiency. https://t.co/HWbngOW9C8
Stats: 193 likes, 31 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1381838086523416587
Date: 2021-04-13 05:14:07 GMT
Replying to: @Hardwood_ (Tweet ID: 1381835544703868928)
Body: @Hardwood_ do you not take pride in these anymore, this is so lazy
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1381605773432606722
Date: 2021-04-12 13:51:00 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1381604444844957699)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @binance where's binance's weed index
Stats: 78 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1381602750354485248
Date: 2021-04-12 13:38:59 GMT
Replying to: @ACthecollector (Tweet ID: 1381602654913236992)
Body: @ac_advanced @rsalame7926 I try to buy the tweet and sell 5min later or something.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1381602346422083585
Date: 2021-04-12 13:37:22 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1381601827687391234)
Body: @rsalame7926 "buy DOGE when elon tweets, do something else when he doesn't" doesn't take a ton of review time
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1381601593431269376
Date: 2021-04-12 13:34:23 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1381581578476789762)
Body: @rsalame7926 when does your internship end again? we should do something to celebrate
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1381575455732428801
Date: 2021-04-12 11:50:31 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlpacaFinance: To mark the occasion of ALPACA rewards unlocking (soon), we want to introduce you to Sampaca! He is part of our herd. He is best buddy with little Al. So, of course, Sampaca won’t dump on us (please.) We want a bullish unlock like $SOL!
@SBF_Alameda @AlamedaTrabucco https://t.co/9tRNTeUcVX
Body: Where is my alpaca? https://t.co/f8PeWudqtz
Stats: 36 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1381499106812555266
Date: 2021-04-12 06:47:08 GMT
Replying to: @PARABOLIT (Tweet ID: 1381372815497105408)
Body: @PARABOLIT looks like a @rsalame7926 alt
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1381192707792461826
Date: 2021-04-11 10:29:37 GMT
Body: @liqmex @SalsaTekila yeah things like Binance perps being a lower fraction of new OI was def a big part of what made this rally more predictably robust
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1381192424987394049
Date: 2021-04-11 10:28:30 GMT
Replying to: @zackvoell (Tweet ID: 1380984491586490369)
Body: @zackvoell Back-testing this, will report back.
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1380559758327902210
Date: 2021-04-09 16:34:30 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1380551399675596804)
Body: @rsalame7926 Be the change you want to see Ryan, close the account.
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1380522156606464009
Date: 2021-04-09 14:05:05 GMT
Replying to: @Lord_Ashdrake (Tweet ID: 1380511966796582912)
Body: @Lord_Ashdrake Sorry, I've never been able to make myself misspell anything publicly :(
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1380511767583846404
Date: 2021-04-09 13:23:48 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 50 https://t.co/3YCH6oluI9
Body: when $100 https://t.co/Gxnco9bH4n
Stats: 162 likes, 5 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 18 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1380484646228553731
Date: 2021-04-09 11:36:02 GMT
Replying to: @kielebiele (Tweet ID: 1380484530428112898)
Body: @kielebiele yes
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1380473363974381574
Date: 2021-04-09 10:51:12 GMT
Replying to: @tonyresearch (Tweet ID: 1380472196938665988)
Body: @tonyresearch *first 100 followers of your life
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379826801682173952
Date: 2021-04-07 16:02:00 GMT
Replying to: @73j4X (Tweet ID: 1379825981989380096)
Body: @73j4X IIRC it was a Thai place three blocks from our old office and we mostly commiserated about how bad all the exchanges were.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379825827911671812
Date: 2021-04-07 15:58:07 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: It's official.
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
https://t.co/Ti0K8DPwae
Body: Gotta say, this isn’t what I thought would happen when I grabbed dinner with Sam years ago in Berkeley to talk about crypto trading. https://t.co/8Bbneolcil
Stats: 189 likes, 9 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379774621596065795
Date: 2021-04-07 12:34:39 GMT
Replying to: @alephega (Tweet ID: 1379774357015257092)
Body: @alephega @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings he smells like that too!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379766294619115521
Date: 2021-04-07 12:01:34 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1379765293346525188)
Body: @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings we don't let ryan near the quoting machines ever since he tried to funnel all our money into LAND
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379763165093715972
Date: 2021-04-07 11:49:07 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1379762514779512836)
Body: @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings huge greenland energy
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379760368780599300
Date: 2021-04-07 11:38:01 GMT
Replying to: @AmpingRS (Tweet ID: 1379745649856499713)
Body: @AmpingRS @cmsholdings yeah fuck does this say
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379738914840186886
Date: 2021-04-07 10:12:46 GMT
Quoted tweet: @carolinecapital: PSA @ new followers: I do NOT intend to use this account to give away free alpha unlike some colleagues I could name. its SOLE purpose is for shitposting
Body: Name them!!!!!!! https://t.co/4lLNDHkacU
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379723066767372288
Date: 2021-04-07 09:09:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1379722668094550016)
Body: *summer
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379722668094550016
Date: 2021-04-07 09:08:12 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AntoineGara: My new feature and the culmination of months of research:
How Trader Jeff Yass Parlayed Poker And Horse Racing Bets Into A $12 Billion Fortune https://t.co/xareMq6V4i
Body: Also he wears shorts year-round despite mandating a "shorts only allowed during the winter" policy for the rest of the company. https://t.co/bVTr2RPkp6
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379719538283978752
Date: 2021-04-07 08:55:46 GMT
Replying to: @ProofofMilan (Tweet ID: 1379700026369261568)
Body: @ProofofMilan @ki_young_ju @upbitglobal @binance The KRW premium has been pretty interesting, much faster cycle than in the past.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379485286321647619
Date: 2021-04-06 17:24:56 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1379404606539710465)
Body: @cmsholdings I love that the story here is more than one person said exactly this.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379334248205668358
Date: 2021-04-06 07:24:46 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: @DonnyCrypto @SBF_Alameda 4:45am
Ryan rolls in, you can hear the clinks of the dog-leg gearbox on his '88 Testarossa - pearl white
He slams his cuff links on the table and says "let's try and buy low and sell high today"
The interns laugh nervously
Body: Sounds false, isn’t. https://t.co/ZYPasMpPZh
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379333914032926724
Date: 2021-04-06 07:23:26 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: I waste a lot of time on Twitter, but many of my colleagues instead do actual work.
Which means mostly you hear from me.
So: what questions do you have for _other_ people at @FTX_Official?
Body: Feel free to add more Alameda stuff here too! Lots of stuff I’ve never talked about, especially on the defi / dev / OTC sides. https://t.co/vn84NF6GGP
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379333375656296450
Date: 2021-04-06 07:21:18 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1379302437761150985)
Body: @rsalame7926 @Thars39654219 @SBF_Alameda @FTX_Official shrewd / forward-thinking / awake
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1379332225913659393
Date: 2021-04-06 07:16:44 GMT
Replying to: @0xhype (Tweet ID: 1379291090000416769)
Body: @0xhype @SBF_Alameda @FTX_Official @jackshaftoes Yeah depends on how busy trading is. For Alameda’s traders focus can be on managing positions / capital super actively when stuff’s moving, to doing more long-term studies and planning when it’s less so.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1377580940617162755
Date: 2021-04-01 11:17:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1377580730121822214)
Body: @FTX_Official @CryptoHateful ("in the bush" is code for "hundred dollars marked to 6mo from now")
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1377580730121822214
Date: 2021-04-01 11:16:54 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1377570154008039424)
Body: @FTX_Official @CryptoHateful An FTT in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Stats: 10 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1377512216606351363
Date: 2021-04-01 06:44:40 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1377447297445994497)
Body: @cmsholdings close friends succeeding is also something i worry about
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1377301584057495552
Date: 2021-03-31 16:47:41 GMT
Replying to: @zackvoell (Tweet ID: 1377301075863216128)
Body: @zackvoell @oldirtysock @FTX_Official coindesk employees only please
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1377204949516386304
Date: 2021-03-31 10:23:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1377204926703529988)
Body: @FTX_Official get it
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1377204926703529988
Date: 2021-03-31 10:23:36 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1377204775721164802)
Body: @FTX_Official bringing the heat
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1377204244718051330
Date: 2021-03-31 10:20:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1377204109590204416)
Body: that's my quantitative and data-driven opinion
Stats: 42 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1377204109590204416
Date: 2021-03-31 10:20:21 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FrancisSuarez: #NewProfilePic https://t.co/8E5wsFZ2n3
Body: seems bullish https://t.co/nbCdeeIJ2E
Stats: 104 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1376440187807391748
Date: 2021-03-29 07:44:48 GMT
Replying to: @IamNomad (Tweet ID: 1375550874538422273)
Body: @IamNomad @CryptoCred @SBF_Alameda happily!
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1375351906575376388
Date: 2021-03-26 07:40:21 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1375330246778519562)
Body: @FTX_Official @frxresearch Stop making excuses!!!!!!!!!!!
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1374972711823241216
Date: 2021-03-25 06:33:34 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1374970080841269249)
Body: @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings I got him verified, he's nothing without me.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1374942263034347521
Date: 2021-03-25 04:32:35 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1374867808601915396)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/Al2IVvSHoF
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1374614594400837639
Date: 2021-03-24 06:50:33 GMT
Replying to: @apeyieldgod (Tweet ID: 1374614339240476674)
Body: @Apyieldgodtrad1 I don't recommend participating in it in particular, my friends wouldn't stop messaging me about it!!!
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1374614155563466753
Date: 2021-03-24 06:48:48 GMT
Body: my friends made me do this, i swear
https://t.co/3dUjlr6JFO
Stats: 8 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1374608973165293573
Date: 2021-03-24 06:28:12 GMT
Quoted tweet: @noahdummett: @AlamedaTrabucco @SBF_Alameda Maybe we’ll finally get an answer to this https://t.co/8Hm0pUnd0m
Body: I totally forgot how angry I was about this, such an insane result. https://t.co/Gum5iZGLCB
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1374602781298888709
Date: 2021-03-24 06:03:36 GMT
Quoted tweet: @JoePompliano: The Miami Heat and cryptocurrency exchange @FTX_Official have agreed to a $135M naming-rights deal for their arena.
FTX will be the first crypto exchange to sponsor a major US professional sports venue.
The world is changing.
(H/T @MiamiHerald) https://t.co/oJja4XFiv7
Body: Little-known fact, this comes with rights for @SBF_Alameda to do all of the Heat's jump balls for as long as FTX keeps the name. https://t.co/Bp7Pyb0hpL
Stats: 147 likes, 6 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 14 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1372603269378306048
Date: 2021-03-18 17:38:15 GMT
Replying to: @stoolpresidente (Tweet ID: 1372594502796517377)
Body: @stoolpresidente @Oreo @Nishad__Singh
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1372254905965056000
Date: 2021-03-17 18:33:59 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1372254640062992391)
Body: @austerity_sucks Yeah for sure, it felt “icky” on some level but had “good reasoning” so luckily we went for it.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1372254470642405379
Date: 2021-03-17 18:32:15 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1372254037236670464)
Body: @austerity_sucks Kinda, we also decided we actively wanted to get even longer crypto at various points.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1372253723859161090
Date: 2021-03-17 18:29:17 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1372253260837490709)
Body: @austerity_sucks We used to! Mostly, if you ignore some things where we sorta knew they had BTC betas but had no way to guess them.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1372252985661693953
Date: 2021-03-17 18:26:21 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: @IamNomad if only people knew how balls long crypto Alameda has been
Body: I’ll talk about the decision to deviate from delta-neutrality some time, it was a fun little saga. https://t.co/QcBae02Pml
Stats: 78 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 22 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1372101086182400000
Date: 2021-03-17 08:22:46 GMT
Quoted tweet: @CL207: I do OTC trades on FTX regulary, especially for altcoin pairs.
theres different traders from FTX that handles my request, some give better quotes, some not as good, @Handi50419506 is my favorite, whenever shes on the desk I know ill get a tight quote.
Body: The extra edge she's not charging comes right out of her bonus. https://t.co/fFwS9yJbMe
Stats: 141 likes, 2 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 25 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1371638633023692801
Date: 2021-03-16 01:45:08 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: Fun fact: a few bots are now messaging @AlamedaTrabucco to call him gay.
Can't tell if they're:
a) avid followers of @sam_trabucco's personal account
b) avid followers of @thesauruscom
c) actually homophobic https://t.co/g3jjq3Ykzb
Body: "smelly" was my bigger issue here tbh https://t.co/PMPl70rRWf
Stats: 159 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 69 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1371624074745585665
Date: 2021-03-16 00:47:17 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: https://t.co/hqJeVvQqjN
Body: Added a few sets of notes to the top of this article to clarify a few things and respond to a few others explicitly. https://t.co/iBo3NFL4Ic
Stats: 25 likes, 1 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 67 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1371595256077062144
Date: 2021-03-15 22:52:46 GMT
Body: https://t.co/hqJeVvQqjN
Stats: 277 likes, 42 retweets, 47 quote tweets, 279 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1371442796830224384
Date: 2021-03-15 12:46:57 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: 1. Alameda is not affiliated with REEF.
2. Alameda does not endorse REEF.
3. We agreed to an OTC trade with REEF; they immediately went to the press to brag.
4. They then reneged on the OTC trade.
5. We obviously do not recommend anyone do business with REEF in any way.
Body: For clarity, BTW: of the 20m tokens we did buy (the original deal was for much more; REEF reneged on the remaining tokens), we are still in possession of the great majority, any claims about us immediately selling all the tokens are false. https://t.co/T738aqv63f
Stats: 293 likes, 52 retweets, 135 quote tweets, 609 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1371435193387511817
Date: 2021-03-15 12:16:44 GMT
Replying to: @NguyenPhanNhat1 (Tweet ID: 1371434609318064129)
Body: @NguyenPhanNhat1 They only officially reneged on the deal a few minutes before my tweet.
Stats: 48 likes, 1 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 49 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1371429927698886657
Date: 2021-03-15 11:55:49 GMT
Body: 1. Alameda is not affiliated with REEF.
2. Alameda does not endorse REEF.
3. We agreed to an OTC trade with REEF; they immediately went to the press to brag.
4. They then reneged on the OTC trade.
5. We obviously do not recommend anyone do business with REEF in any way.
Stats: 2020 likes, 373 retweets, 402 quote tweets, 544 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1371423932402728963
Date: 2021-03-15 11:31:59 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1371418138441609217)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/muk9Bnd7AX
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1371417793749417986
Date: 2021-03-15 11:07:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1371417721653530625)
Body: @cmsholdings where's your COMMITMENT to the GAME
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1371417721653530625
Date: 2021-03-15 11:07:19 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1371404714613563393)
Body: @cmsholdings also I don't like the characterization of like half the day as "the Asia session" crypto is 24/7 DAN
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1371212140116283394
Date: 2021-03-14 21:30:24 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1371211201909248003)
Body: @cmsholdings @LostTreeCapital During a college app interview I was doing once for MIT I asked the girl at the end if there was a Q she wished I’d asked her. She said:
“If you could change the smell of rain to anything what would you change it to?”
Her answer to her own question:
“I wouldn’t change it.”
Stats: 34 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1371210859532402700
Date: 2021-03-14 21:25:19 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1371209764584194051)
Body: @cmsholdings @LostTreeCapital It’s from America and it’s constantly selling BTC.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370714886209110019
Date: 2021-03-13 12:34:30 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: March 12, 2020 was the hardest* day** of my life. A year later, it sticks out more clearly as the most interesting situation I've ever been faced with -- and one from which I've learned a ton. Here are a few lessons I learned directly from March 12: https://t.co/z3FoVmE39N
Body: A year later: was hiking while BTC hit $60k without major incident. https://t.co/ZTYQPjKy1S
Stats: 42 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370656469016670211
Date: 2021-03-13 08:42:22 GMT
Replying to: @IAmRipoff (Tweet ID: 1370591940777967616)
Body: @IAmRipoff wasn’t about it falling, was about trading being really good but really hard
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370278770645463045
Date: 2021-03-12 07:41:32 GMT
Replying to: @schandola7 (Tweet ID: 1370278334072901634)
Body: @thebloodtalon7 Government up in arms about a stimulus but have you met me???
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273676101177348
Date: 2021-03-12 07:21:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273666500456449)
Body: March 12 was the hardest day of my life -- but it was also one of the most fun, and the most edifying. I walked out harrowed but also a WAY better trader -- and thinker, and doer -- and I'm excited for more March 12s to keep growing. It's what we live for at Alameda! https://t.co/CpH8AygD8N
Stats: 63 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 18 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273666500456449
Date: 2021-03-12 07:21:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273664743043074)
Body: And if I know crypto, I know the vol will keep up, and the ability to keep making strong, fast decisions will keep mattering maybe more than anything else (on the biggest days, for sure).
https://t.co/D96AErwWPp
Stats: 58 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273664743043074
Date: 2021-03-12 07:21:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273663157559298)
Body: We always have to make these fast, crucial decisions -- it's what crypto trading is, really. And we got a lot better on March 12! It prepared us for trading a super-volatile election, trading the quick and huge $20k moves, trading XRP's 50% moves from the SEC, etc. etc.
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273663157559298
Date: 2021-03-12 07:21:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273661584764929)
Body: Seconds mattered here because *someone* was gonna close these spreads, *someone* was gonna make all this $ -- making it *us* was ALL we cared about, and it was so exciting to see our team figure all this out and gel in such a stressful situation.
Stats: 26 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273661584764929
Date: 2021-03-12 07:21:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273659953192963)
Body: We often had seconds to make huge decisions -- how big can our BitMEX perp position be? Big big should our OKEx/Huobi spread be? Where do we send our ETH? How much USDT can we deliver USD for right now? Where should we send out last available BTC collateral?
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273659953192963
Date: 2021-03-12 07:21:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273657642123264)
Body: So we needed our people to step up, and we had to rely on intuition. It was exciting! Many new things are, and there was so much uncertainty that it was kinda fun just to see how things would shake out.
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273657642123264
Date: 2021-03-12 07:21:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273343299973124)
Body: THINK FAST
Above all else, what market moves like this reward is the ability to move quickly. Our trading is mostly automated, but let's just say we did not trust our bots to nail the events of March 12 -- they're optimized for significantly less volatility. https://t.co/KV5ZhwEi5c
Stats: 31 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273343299973124
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273333258776576)
Body: Years of big wins and losses got me used to the idea that, yeah, maybe I'm about to lose big -- but everyone around me knows I'm +EV right now, and trusts that my decisions make sense. And no one's gonna win big without risking a lot -- I know I never have. https://t.co/oX0NjchoQo
Stats: 52 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273333258776576
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273331279142917)
Body: It was truly testing! And honestly, it didn't always seem like I could -- hour 37 there was one where I thought pretty hard about making it someone else's problem. But the game drew me back in like always, and I got back into the zone.
Stats: 35 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273331279142917
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273318264213507)
Body: BE COOL
When you've been awake for 36 hours, the market's finally been calm enough for you to sleep, and then you get woken up 20 minutes later because BTC fell 20% and you're hemorrhaging $ ... how do you remain rational? https://t.co/VnwaC4UImw
Stats: 40 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273318264213507
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273316750073857)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What happened on Thanksgiving 2020?
(Alameda edition -- a thread about maximizing)
https://t.co/POuO8KLNdf
Body: ... spots like Thanksgiving, when we DID nail the "big rally -> small organic downturn -> LOTS of liquidations causing a BIG downturn" effect.
https://t.co/yY2q4JITp3
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273316750073857
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273314883563522)
Body: Of course, it was extreme -- but seeing BTC gap down 50% when the "organic" selling was probably closer to 20% (SPY analogue) gave us a ton of info about how to handle similar spots in the future ...
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273314883563522
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273302745284613)
Body: Also, we did know about them before, but March 12 is when we REALLY figured out liquidation cascades and how to predict momentum as a result of them, especially in low-liquidity environments. https://t.co/7tooDjSUnQ
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273302745284613
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273301306568707)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Bigger is Bigger (when Betting is Better)
A thread about getting it in good.
(And a title about mocking @SBF_Alameda's little puns)
Body: Very often it's easy to make some $ -- maximizing how much you make and making your best bet your biggest separates the good traders from the best.
https://t.co/nhCIi2SRTp
Stats: 42 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273301306568707
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273299813441542)
Body: Figuring out that, yeah, there's $ to make in OKEx vs. Huobi -- but we need all our collateral on BitMEX because it's limited and BitMEX has the potential to print 50% good (and it did!) -- was ALL that mattered to maximize profit during this particular hour.
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273299813441542
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273298290896897)
Body: It turned out that, no, probably I shouldn't have been! It was crucial to do one of two things: bet small s.t. your collateral was ROBUSTly safe, or restrict to just the very best trades. The latter was the way to go!
Stats: 25 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273298290896897
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273296822927362)
Body: But to do that for real size, you had to lever up and risk liquidation -- and how safe was that? This shit was all happening with BTC down 20% -- what if it fell another 20%? Am I comfortable risking a 30% loss if that happens just to lock in 10% of profit?
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273296822927362
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273294696419329)
Body: MAXIMIZE
With everything in freefall, futures spreads got INSANE on March 12 -- many %s for many hours in delta-neutral spreads. OKEx and Huobi quarterlies -- close to identical products -- had a 10% spread at many points. So much $ to make, just buy one sell the other!
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273282516119552
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273280565768195)
Body: But this highlights just how important it is to consider risk of ruin in putting spreads on. 20bp/day is NOT what we were making in EV on that futures spread -- if we had a 1% chance per day of liquidation and would then lose 10%, we were only making 10bp! Half the EV gone.
Stats: 39 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273280565768195
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273274995744768)
Body: ... well, on March 12, we would have been! And in some cases, we were. For a lot of our positions we *were* able to get more collateral in time, but not all of them -- we had to pick and choose which were the most valuable to salvage at the time. https://t.co/WfRUGzTrmh
Stats: 34 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273274995744768
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273273397665796)
Body: So putting on a long spot / short futures position for 20bp/day isn't quite so simple -- for any real size, there's some chance of liquidation. Let's say we were 4x-levered or so, and a 25% move would cause us to get liquidated ...
Stats: 30 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273273397665796
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273271854231553)
Body: Doing that, though, requires posting collateral with the exchange. You can increase position size at the cost of more collateral or more risk to get liquidated, both of which are very real costs! Capital is useful for lots of stuff, and liquidation costs a LOT when it happens.
Stats: 29 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273271854231553
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273269668933638)
Body: ADJUST FOR RISK
Alameda holds lots of positions -- some short-term when we expect some premium to revert fast, say, but some longer-term. For instance, if we sell a future expiring in a month 6% rich to make 20bp/day, we'll (often) gladly just hold for the whole month.
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273269668933638
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273257195069440)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: BTW, while SPY correlation got pretty shit on the vaccine news, a new contender arose -- gold! For some reason, the world decided today that BTC was gonna follow gold instead of SPY. I was gonna write a thread about it, but I honestly have no idea why this happened -- any ideas? https://t.co/wlhUeU1lrr
Body: And we've learned our lesson here. Now, we track all kinds of possible signals for crypto which aren't *currently* useful but which *could* be -- even when we don't always have a great understanding for why.
https://t.co/7Hc7UPHVZl https://t.co/zU7rSn2uwn
Stats: 39 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273257195069440
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273255655833604)
Body: BTC lagging 30bp SPY moves by 30s is doable by hand, if need be. BTC lagging 5% SPY moves by 2s is NOT, and that's what started happening all at once -- adapting quickly matters to first order, but WAY more to second order, giving you outs to nail bigger follow-on changes.
Stats: 32 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273255655833604
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273254175244291)
Body: So we mobilized to get this into our models -- we had to, as we were getting picked off a ton to others who added it first (this is a huge problem when you're MMing for large size pretty tight, which we were and are). And thank god, because March 12 hit and this became critical.
Stats: 36 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273254175244291
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273252568752129)
Body: We noticed in the days leading up (when markets were falling, just slowly) that BTC *had* picked up a beta to SPY. It was slow (30s+ on average for BTC to follow) and only happened on biggish moves -- but it was real and it was obvious.
Stats: 44 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273252568752129
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273250673000453)
Body: It's hard to imagine now, but there was actually a TON of speculation before this that BTC would serve as a safe haven asset, of sorts, in the event that the broader markets crashed. Not the case this time!
E.g.: https://t.co/ETsZ2PmbED
Stats: 36 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273250673000453
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273240396959747)
Body: ADAPT
Pre-COVID, crypto was its own thing. Mostly divorced from the traditional markets, BTC (for instance) really did not have a beta to SPY, for instance -- it was totally its own thing. https://t.co/QoWNUhEtpk
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273240396959747
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1370273230586486786)
Body: *tied with the time in 9th grade when I was forced to play on a baseball team and managed to strike out vs. a pitcher who walked everyone else and would have walked me 4-0 if I had not swung once
**really the 3ish days around then, but it felt like a month so IDK https://t.co/xkQIaG5pwR
Stats: 27 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1370273230586486786
Date: 2021-03-12 07:19:31 GMT
Body: March 12, 2020 was the hardest* day** of my life. A year later, it sticks out more clearly as the most interesting situation I've ever been faced with -- and one from which I've learned a ton. Here are a few lessons I learned directly from March 12: https://t.co/z3FoVmE39N
Stats: 671 likes, 121 retweets, 32 quote tweets, 13 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1369677388045414400
Date: 2021-03-10 15:51:51 GMT
Replying to: @PodcastDelphi (Tweet ID: 1369676088646004736)
Body: @PodcastDelphi @Shaughnessy119 @gmoneyNFT @BillyLuedtke @Cooopahtroopa @jbrukh @DragosRizescu @Flynnjamm @JamesTodaroMD @thattallguy @AlexMasmej @santiagoroel @mayazi @katyaandme @nettra @Delphi_Digital @TheLTBNetwork I don’t think I was on this :P
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1369551982319394818
Date: 2021-03-10 07:33:32 GMT
Quoted tweet: @rsalame7926: You know how you can tell Coinflex is behind it? First time their products are actually mentioned somewhere... https://t.co/RyKiV7Pq5K
Body: https://t.co/RNNtnbFrcc https://t.co/44vVu7uZhj
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1369243684647092226
Date: 2021-03-09 11:08:28 GMT
Replying to: @Haoskionchain (Tweet ID: 1369241630461542403)
Body: @Haoskionchain lol yeah to be fair they've existed since 2011 and just change their name and whatnot
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1369236229066199040
Date: 2021-03-09 10:38:50 GMT
Replying to: @cryptypudgy (Tweet ID: 1369236042470068232)
Body: @TJTJTJTJ33 I will OTOH buy ETH from you for $0 if that is something you're interested in.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1368465129587630080
Date: 2021-03-07 07:34:46 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1368464527889637376)
Body: @FTX_Official @cmsintern Building models of who would die first
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1368464700535533568
Date: 2021-03-07 07:33:04 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1368463546707677186)
Body: @jackshaftoes @cmsintern You’d be surprised what’s possible with a little elbow grease.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1368463001209085953
Date: 2021-03-07 07:26:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1368462729145552900)
Body: @cmsintern Play smart not hard.
(But also hard.)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1368462729145552900
Date: 2021-03-07 07:25:14 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1367912689968807942)
Body: @cmsintern An Alameda intern bought and distributed weapons to everyone and then after the fight dropped a bomb on any survivors.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1368177137937772544
Date: 2021-03-06 12:30:23 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 1) I'd like to take the opportunity to talk about something more important than my usual shitposts:
the people who have made FTX what it is today.
Body: wait also why are they silhouettes https://t.co/gc19ObzSha
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1367722016132898823
Date: 2021-03-05 06:21:54 GMT
Replying to: @jesseproudman (Tweet ID: 1367721765829414918)
Body: @jesseproudman @thatfinchguy @Alamedatrabuco honestly “alot” is the biggest clue here that something is up
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1367721753963757573
Date: 2021-03-05 06:20:51 GMT
Replying to: @jesseproudman (Tweet ID: 1367721465865375744)
Body: @jesseproudman @thatfinchguy @Alamedatrabuco ooooh that does sound worse
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1367721025287249926
Date: 2021-03-05 06:17:58 GMT
Replying to: @thatfinchguy (Tweet ID: 1367617555884613634)
Body: @thatfinchguy @jesseproudman @Alamedatrabuco lol all that account does is RT me and occasionally like a post about “glee” could be worse
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1366052638031106052
Date: 2021-02-28 15:48:23 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1366051582555611149)
Body: @cmsholdings @cmsintern can the interns meet each other and either kiss or fight as appropriate
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1366036752327053314
Date: 2021-02-28 14:45:16 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsholdings: Just FYI CMS is not participating in this at this time https://t.co/X1v1gGaT66
Body: That makes sense, it would require taking an action!
(Alameda also isn’t :P) https://t.co/d0VEc6oQFR
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1365093559729156097
Date: 2021-02-26 00:17:21 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1364957758378885124)
Body: @cmsholdings Robots only, no U.S. short sellers allowed, don't worry about the details on this one.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1364818771664199683
Date: 2021-02-25 06:05:26 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: https://t.co/Sr2JSA5xpr https://t.co/otQC5GId1s
Body: WHEN OLY2021_OCT https://t.co/qiBJzOeQFj
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1364566149401178114
Date: 2021-02-24 13:21:37 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsholdings: My favorite part of this rally has been @AlamedaTrabucco telling you along the way you’re too levered and he’s going to liquidate you and then everyone repeatedly ignoring him as he does it over and over again
Body: So obviously this is not true, but it IS true that a lot of the stuff I've talked about in the past have characterized this move.
Big levered longs on Binance -> small drawdown -> TONS of binance liquidations -> momentum downward
has been the gist (will flesh out tomorrow). https://t.co/SOMKyiK0IE
Stats: 47 likes, 4 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1364561190924390401
Date: 2021-02-24 13:01:54 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FantomFDN: Alameda Research invests $35m into Fantom Foundation.
Alameda Research enters the Fantom ecosystem, collaborating with the Fantom Core team integrating Solana, Serum, Raydium, and other cross-chain products.
@AlamedaResearch
https://t.co/5q8oHolbme
Body: Excited for this relationship! https://t.co/f3OqOBVTtd
Stats: 162 likes, 22 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1364560704422903811
Date: 2021-02-24 12:59:58 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1364540674855612417)
Body: @cmsholdings NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1364414588310016001
Date: 2021-02-24 03:19:22 GMT
Quoted tweet: @ranyi1115: I'm discussing “[LITTLE BUIDL] The World of Crypto Trading ” with @ekang426, @AlamedaTrabucco, @lihanlee83, and @JunwooJames. Tomorrow, Feb 24 at 11:00 AM GMT 8 on @joinclubhouse. Join us! https://t.co/4G7pGgUpIA
Body: Just had a little monologue about liquidations in here so that’s fun. https://t.co/uyrheO1pA7
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1364217123363381248
Date: 2021-02-23 14:14:42 GMT
Replying to: @twobitidiot (Tweet ID: 1364194108357681154)
Body: @twobitidiot @cmsholdings I do feel slain.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1363832304754327554
Date: 2021-02-22 12:45:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1363832164790333442)
Body: @cmsholdings evidence: food delivery options are just terrible at this hour
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1363832164790333442
Date: 2021-02-22 12:45:01 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1363809805551489026)
Body: @cmsholdings everyone here is asleep
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1363409666982649866
Date: 2021-02-21 08:46:10 GMT
Replying to: @lawmaster (Tweet ID: 1363409279324192768)
Body: @lawmaster @SBF_Alameda @FTX_Official Hillbilly Elegy but instead of being about Trump voters it's about TRUMPFEB buyers.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1363394494444433410
Date: 2021-02-21 07:45:52 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1363367556396904449)
Body: @FTX_Official TRUMP_MAR
TRUMP_APR
TRUMP_MAY
???
Stats: 119 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1363348022084530180
Date: 2021-02-21 04:41:12 GMT
Replying to: @AWice (Tweet ID: 1363236371901476867)
Body: @AWice March 12 was the longest year of my life.
Stats: 79 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1363042264017039362
Date: 2021-02-20 08:26:14 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: Exchanges need to make it clear what chain an address is for and what chain the withdrawal will be sent on
FTX currently credits the first time a deposit is sent on the wrong chain for free, BSC alone is costing us millions in support and dev time
Body: It's be cool if an exchange existed which let you choose from among every commonly used chain, made that process easy, and also ate every withdrawal fee ever.
Even its competitions', now! https://t.co/6Pl0uPbYYF
Stats: 46 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1362975553255403521
Date: 2021-02-20 04:01:09 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1362926054927708161)
Body: @cmsholdings Debunking Erroneous FUD Initiatives
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1362753134645313539
Date: 2021-02-19 13:17:20 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1362752967678386177)
Body: @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings @FTX_Official You know what they say about a desk with big numbers.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1362752144663670784
Date: 2021-02-19 13:13:24 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1362751723639513088)
Body: @FTX_Official @cmsholdings @rsalame7926 I'm digital only, it's 2021.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1362751752647233543
Date: 2021-02-19 13:11:51 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1362750799491702788)
Body: @FTX_Official dare to dream
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1362749869648056321
Date: 2021-02-19 13:04:22 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: AFAIK this is the _only_ legit RAY out there; all other RAYs are scams. https://t.co/3cQUdBjs0A
Body: Marie Curie could NEVER https://t.co/UHrb61Kv4H
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1362749684800835586
Date: 2021-02-19 13:03:38 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1362745005920702465)
Body: @cmsholdings @rsalame7926 No I like Ryan :(
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1362732398488686593
Date: 2021-02-19 11:54:56 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1362710957282189314)
Body: @cmsholdings eh
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1362691201720225794
Date: 2021-02-19 09:11:14 GMT
Quoted tweet: @rsalame7926: Happy to share the desk had its first billion dollar day! Here's to efficient markets. 🍻 https://t.co/AHAfoGIcrA
Body: First of many -- @rsalame7926 (+ the whole team) has done a ton to take our OTC desk from where it was 2 years ago to where it is now, and it's been exciting to be a part of! https://t.co/vF0sm4y1jV
Stats: 42 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1362340824214773761
Date: 2021-02-18 09:58:58 GMT
Replying to: @DefiDiogenesYFI (Tweet ID: 1362264690538147840)
Body: @DefiDiogenesYFI @CL207 @SBF_Alameda Are you discounting my donations to Cartier and YSL?
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1362340632979595264
Date: 2021-02-18 09:58:12 GMT
Replying to: @arcus_787 (Tweet ID: 1362339096560041985)
Body: @PinkyPowel @SBF_Alameda I plan to!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1362262621882261505
Date: 2021-02-18 04:48:13 GMT
Body: @SamuelShadrach4 @SBF_Alameda Never rich enough!
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1362262416730415108
Date: 2021-02-18 04:47:24 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1362260881476788228)
Body: @SBF_Alameda Is this how much $ I'm supposed to be getting paid?????
Stats: 108 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1362001377078116354
Date: 2021-02-17 11:30:07 GMT
Replying to: @kyled116 (Tweet ID: 1362001024244834305)
Body: @kyled116 @cmsholdings @cmsholdings will die on this hill if it KILLS them
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1362000232716718081
Date: 2021-02-17 11:25:34 GMT
Replying to: @3L3C70 (Tweet ID: 1361999658009038849)
Body: @3L3C70 @coingecko Right this is sort of the best case for CoinTiger -- in either case, it should not be counted as volume in addition to Binance's if we want accurate counts of total crypto volume.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997034278907908
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361997032781541378)
Body: @coingecko I recommend marking CoinTiger as fake! And some others that are still getting through -- happy to write something up about those ones, too, if it would help.
Right now your site is quite good, let's make it objectively the best one in the space.
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997032781541378
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361997031221256197)
Body: This is a much more sophisticated scheme than you'd see in 2019! The old tricks don't work anymore, now you need to look *really* real to trick people. And the arbiters of what's real and what isn't need to update too! The FTX volume monitor (per advice from Alameda) has done so.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997031221256197
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361997029765902336)
Body: The funding rates are also basically the same, and if you watch the order books simultaneously, you'll find those are also basically just the same. (CoinTiger messes a bit with trade volume numbers, not sure why.)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997029765902336
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361997027576401923)
Body: The XRP perp OI on CoinTiger is $178m -- Binance's is $177m.
DOT? Both $150m.
LTC? Both $149m.
And so on down the list!
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997027576401923
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361997022895611905)
Body: Here's another table of similar data about USDT altcoin perps. But this one is Binance! The only exchange beating CoinTiger, apparently. Anything seem familiar? https://t.co/VlzFGAmUz8
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997022895611905
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361997018969763840)
Body: Here are some data about their top altcoin USDT perps -- OI data, volume, etc. Nothing here jumps out as like, inherently fake -- these numbers are very high for an exchange not one of you has ever used, but maybe you're just out of the loop. https://t.co/ejumuFk2PE
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997018969763840
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361997017396899844)
Body: Have you guys, like, ever heard of CoinTiger? Me neither, in particular, except that I see it on lists like this one sometimes.
Spoiler alert: I believe #2 is not especially earned :P
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997017396899844
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361997015899459585)
Body: Some are doing some kinda tricky things, though, and it's hard to be too hard on someone for not noticing. For instance, let's dig into exchange #2 (!!!): CoinTiger.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997015899459585
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361997013345202182)
Body: This is a lot better! Most of these are real (at least partially). Some of them have some real volume and some fake, which is tricky to sort out without having the kinds of info Alameda does about what's actually possible to execute.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997013345202182
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361997008270069765)
Body: CoinGecko isn't perfect, though -- some volume fakers have gotten more sophisticated.
Let's take a look at CoinGecko's top 20 derivatives exchanges: https://t.co/dw1x1BFrx8
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997008270069765
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361997006697160708)
Body: Also, CoinGecko is now doing a pretty good job at detailing which exchanges are real. For the most part, they separate real ones and fake ones, labeling the fake ones and not including them in e.g. price calculations. They're an amazing resource!
https://t.co/wenTxa7JzM
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997006697160708
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361997005065572353)
Body: How have things changed in the last 18 months? CMC is still pretty wrong about a lot (they're much better though! For instance, they actually acknowledge that futures volume exists :P), but the landscape has evolved. Most of the fake exchanges aren't prominent anymore.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997005065572353
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361997003572404225)
Body: I'm partial to the appendix of the report: a bunch of examples of poor attempts at faking volume from many "exchanges," most of which are just obvious to the maked eye.
https://t.co/9nPaeAtv9I
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997003572404225
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361997002125451265)
Body: ... which means that we know which ones it's actually possible to execute a lot of volume on. We also devised a bunch of other tests (see the report) which would root out a lot of sources of fake volume, and they basically just matched our priors exactly.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361997002125451265
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361996999956983808)
Body: How do I know? Well, it turns out that the best way to know is the be one of the biggest players in the space! This is what motivated us to actually make the report, as opposed to just thinking it should exist. We've got trading set up on all the exchanges with APIs ...
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361996999956983808
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361996995133546501)
Body: Today? It's ... well, still not awesome. These are their current top 15 derivatives exchanges -- the top 5 aren't crazy, but there's a pretty steep drop of in quality after that. Only 3 of the next 10 have real volume. https://t.co/flEzKZiXot
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361996995133546501
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361996993585844228)
Body: It did basically no vetting of exchanges for whether volume was real and very little sanity-checking of prices in determining where coins were trading. If you just took it at face value, you'd think random exchanges were the biggest, and you'd be way off on prices.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361996993585844228
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361996991580958720)
Body: Our initial motivation for the report was to provide some clarity around which exchanges had real volume and which had fake volume. At the time, CoinMarketCap was the go-to for info about prices, volumes, etc. for coins and exchanges, and it was ... bad. REALLY bad.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361996991580958720
Date: 2021-02-17 11:12:42 GMT
Quoted tweet: @CryptoRank_io: 📈 $BTC Futures Open Interest on FTX Exchange Hit ATH🚀
According to the latest data from CryptoRank, Bitcoin Futures Open Interest on @FTX_Official set new ATH of $1.68B
👉 https://t.co/76eQcZd6KN https://t.co/nW4mQs8lYw
Body: Crypto OI and volumes are up a ton! Thought it would be fun to revisit this report we worked on at Alameda a few years ago.
https://t.co/jAWS1vPN0s
https://t.co/f1wedHjGqQ https://t.co/Jd6zCnG6Yd
Stats: 14 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361697121435492355
Date: 2021-02-16 15:21:07 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1361694618245554178)
Body: @cmsintern @CryptoTurnip @FTX_Official Gary towers over everyone and everything except some noble redwoods and has since at least tenth grade (I have no evidence about his size before then, that’s when we met)
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361535399286296577
Date: 2021-02-16 04:38:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1361533374179856386)
Body: @cmsholdings remind me BTW, what time Asia / U.S. did it get above $50k?
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361533374179856386
Date: 2021-02-16 04:30:27 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: Live in 2 minutes! https://t.co/TKwSBPm2ib
Body: Can't wait to discuss BTC's 45s foray above $50k https://t.co/AZsUmY4b4Q
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1361324387069087745
Date: 2021-02-15 14:40:00 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1361283811733037059)
Body: @cmsholdings Morgan Stanley agreeing with you is a weakly negative update.
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1360090356876857347
Date: 2021-02-12 04:56:24 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1360090260781162499)
Body: @SBF_Alameda NOT EVEN ME
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1360090289235398657
Date: 2021-02-12 04:56:08 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1360090029738008576)
Body: @FTX_Official I'm not a liar.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1360089550584827905
Date: 2021-02-12 04:53:12 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1360088987503910914)
Body: @cmsholdings I have a few hilarious bits prepared but this is not going in the direction I thought
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1360087929352114179
Date: 2021-02-12 04:46:46 GMT
Quoted tweet: @jackshaftoes: Join @SBF_Alameda, @AlamedaTrabucco, @jerallaire, @dzrgreg, @ramnikarora, @aeyakovenko, @mikevanrossum and I at 8:30pm PST on tonights FTX Clubhouse Session🎉
https://t.co/K3j7rxQnWs
Body: Not combative yet but I'm holding out hope. https://t.co/EzrJikqu4g
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1360045053968740354
Date: 2021-02-12 01:56:23 GMT
Quoted tweet: @jackshaftoes: Join @SBF_Alameda, @AlamedaTrabucco, @jerallaire, @dzrgreg, @ramnikarora, @aeyakovenko, @mikevanrossum and I at 8:30pm PST on tonights FTX Clubhouse Session🎉
https://t.co/K3j7rxQnWs
Body: Take two! https://t.co/EzrJikqu4g
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1360027153174196225
Date: 2021-02-12 00:45:16 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Are we sure it’s the year of the “Ox” and not the year of the “0xMaki”
Body: what did I say https://t.co/yHWjLOimaG
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1360027075248234496
Date: 2021-02-12 00:44:57 GMT
Replying to: @charlessabatier (Tweet ID: 1360024075209482240)
Body: @charlessabatier Oh this got pushed to today because clubhouse was down
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359899607057063937
Date: 2021-02-11 16:18:26 GMT
Replying to: @JWestJest (Tweet ID: 1359899072673554434)
Body: @JWestJest FTT and Ox don’t look the same tho :(
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359896456593768453
Date: 2021-02-11 16:05:55 GMT
Body: Are we sure it’s the year of the “Ox” and not the year of the “0xMaki”
Stats: 128 likes, 6 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359822934416629761
Date: 2021-02-11 11:13:46 GMT
Replying to: @gt_fckd (Tweet ID: 1359820535392317441)
Body: @cryptosmiley @Xessive_ @FTX_Official NO thank you FTX this meant the world.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359727429422485504
Date: 2021-02-11 04:54:16 GMT
Replying to: @FTX_Official (Tweet ID: 1359717580546531330)
Body: @FTX_Official Nothing at Cartier costs $500 this won't work
Stats: 52 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359727144138461184
Date: 2021-02-11 04:53:08 GMT
Replying to: @frxresearch (Tweet ID: 1359717463672320003)
Body: @frxresearch I've tried!
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359697640858865666
Date: 2021-02-11 02:55:54 GMT
Replying to: @DefiDiogenesYFI (Tweet ID: 1359696918801223682)
Body: @DefiDiogenesYFI @cmsholdings It's hard for some peo-
robots
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359696415983718403
Date: 2021-02-11 02:51:02 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1359695921915789313)
Body: @cmsholdings Yeah thumbs must be nice, hoping for some in v.2.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359695679648452608
Date: 2021-02-11 02:48:06 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1359695491915804679)
Body: @cmsholdings Not true -- your opinions seem basically random to me.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359695224386191366
Date: 2021-02-11 02:46:18 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1359695074750267392)
Body: @cmsholdings Neither works because it's just random!
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359692556049682434
Date: 2021-02-11 02:35:41 GMT
Body: @sirboomcat @cmsholdings @jackshaftoes That also doesn't currently work.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359691534061293569
Date: 2021-02-11 02:31:38 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1359691170016878593)
Body: @cmsholdings @jackshaftoes can the next clubhouse thing be just me listing the times when BTC has gone up recently and demonstrating they're essentially random w.r.t. Asia/U.S. hours, and @cmsholdings just has to listen without responding?
Stats: 14 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359690146505842700
Date: 2021-02-11 02:26:07 GMT
Replying to: @noculator (Tweet ID: 1359678930505129987)
Body: @tr1ggercrypt0 @jackshaftoes @SBF_Alameda @cmsholdings @aeyakovenko @ramnikarora @dzrgreg @cmsintern Let @cmsintern speak!!!
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359677595227353091
Date: 2021-02-11 01:36:14 GMT
Quoted tweet: @jackshaftoes: Join @SBF_Alameda, @cmsholdings, @aeyakovenko, @AlamedaTrabucco, @ramnikarora, @dzrgreg and I tonight at 8:30 PST
https://t.co/0tceU0NCaG
Body: Nice a live version of this: https://t.co/dmAjaW6yEP
I hope someone is on who thinks USDT isn't backed. https://t.co/XWDquaNgOG
Stats: 25 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359526974520061953
Date: 2021-02-10 15:37:44 GMT
Replying to: @hxrobtc (Tweet ID: 1359526169679437827)
Body: @hxrobtc no way
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359526799391117312
Date: 2021-02-10 15:37:02 GMT
Replying to: @EncryptedShark (Tweet ID: 1359526430670024708)
Body: @ethlambo QUANTITATIVE trading
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359524732085829632
Date: 2021-02-10 15:28:49 GMT
Quoted tweet: @elonmusk: Bought some Dogecoin for lil X, so he can be a toddler hodler
Body: You KNOW he realized toddler rhymes with HODLer and reverse-engineered this.
Probably did buy the DOGE though. https://t.co/lJIzBBDJNf
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359521285823361028
Date: 2021-02-10 15:15:07 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1359521218546724868)
Body: @CamilleKenton It's more like a few $B these days, we should update that :P
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359521218546724868
Date: 2021-02-10 15:14:51 GMT
Replying to: @CamilleKenton (Tweet ID: 1359507521786925057)
Body: @CamilleKenton Glad you enjoy!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1359392733815742465
Date: 2021-02-10 06:44:18 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: Three days ago I told our designer not to make a $20 FTT poster because it was at $14.
https://t.co/1fCYVc7uao https://t.co/sDntxyPCE5
Body: Thank god my quantitative models told me to own this. https://t.co/agUvSgymsI
Stats: 61 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1358927115027025924
Date: 2021-02-08 23:54:06 GMT
Replying to: @cmsintern (Tweet ID: 1358922790968115206)
Body: @cmsintern @cmsholdings @stokasz @ConvexMonster Can I moonlight as a CMS intern?
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1358759189028298753
Date: 2021-02-08 12:46:49 GMT
Replying to: @cansar (Tweet ID: 1358645385061830656)
Body: @cansar @FTX_Official Well it’s important to be lying sometimes in order to get action. Always use mixed strategies even if you’re just talking, you never know.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1358591378112978944
Date: 2021-02-08 01:40:00 GMT
Body: I was one of the halftime show dancers, you can’t prove me wrong.
Stats: 36 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1357563493067628544
Date: 2021-02-05 05:35:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1357563372774952961)
Body: @LuffytaroX *live
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1357563372774952961
Date: 2021-02-05 05:35:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1357561851001774081)
Body: @LuffytaroX Love photo from my desk featuring both. https://t.co/1ropjCzJXa
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1357563162317361152
Date: 2021-02-05 05:34:14 GMT
Replying to: @0xWuffle (Tweet ID: 1357562774843367425)
Body: @LuffytaroX @SBF_Alameda He doesn't usually but might sometimes, I do though.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1357562380671045633
Date: 2021-02-05 05:31:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1357561851001774081)
Body: @LuffytaroX Am playing right now!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1357561851001774081
Date: 2021-02-05 05:29:02 GMT
Replying to: @0xWuffle (Tweet ID: 1357558383784587264)
Body: @LuffytaroX Accurate.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1357548890036137987
Date: 2021-02-05 04:37:32 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: Join @SBF_Alameda, @jackshaftoes, @tarunchitra, @AlamedaTrabucco and @cmsholdings tomorrow at 8:30PST for a chat on trading crypto markets
https://t.co/9j4SKJjb6S
Body: Lotta DOGE talk so far https://t.co/B9Te0TiORK
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1357501475044220928
Date: 2021-02-05 01:29:07 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1357501064925351940)
Body: @cmsholdings @GTJOKER_ *beeping about it
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1357500489554776065
Date: 2021-02-05 01:25:12 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1357500249472917505)
Body: @cmsholdings @GTJOKER_ The path between your computer and your microwave is not 26.2 miles.
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1357497704792817667
Date: 2021-02-05 01:14:08 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1357482621882802177)
Body: @cmsholdings @GTJOKER_ No one cares how many times you’re wrong if you’re right once.
Stats: 17 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1357333907700551684
Date: 2021-02-04 14:23:16 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1357319056714592257)
Body: @cmsholdings @levin_idan @FTX_Official @tarunchitra @SBF_Alameda @jackshaftoes this is my second one and i still dont understand what it is
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1357259044335931393
Date: 2021-02-04 09:25:47 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: Join @SBF_Alameda, @jackshaftoes, @tarunchitra, @AlamedaTrabucco and @cmsholdings tomorrow at 8:30PST for a chat on trading crypto markets
https://t.co/9j4SKJjb6S
Body: I'm gonna be as mean @cmsholdings during this as they are to me online! https://t.co/B9Te0TiORK
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1357250145893507075
Date: 2021-02-04 08:50:25 GMT
Quoted tweet: @elonmusk: No highs, no lows, only Doge
Body: I think there are maybe *some* highs. https://t.co/RGm4aA1YjI
Stats: 30 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356942157949538306
Date: 2021-02-03 12:26:35 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1356941571673980930)
Body: @cmsholdings You mean the good guys can turn bad :(
I don't like the idea of gray areas.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356546778049351680
Date: 2021-02-02 10:15:29 GMT
Quoted tweet: @renprotocol: We’re excited to announce that the Ren development team will be joining Alameda Research!
https://t.co/WmwkYRCw4y
Body: We're excited too! https://t.co/YbvSmMJYlF
Stats: 18 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356511220640014339
Date: 2021-02-02 07:54:12 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoBlt (Tweet ID: 1356479810458034176)
Body: @CryptoBlt I do have a personal account which I don't really post from and really only follow crossword people and some friends.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356087430357549060
Date: 2021-02-01 03:50:12 GMT
Replying to: @ISilico (Tweet ID: 1356086831675289608)
Body: @ISilico @IshmaelCoin @liqmex @cmsholdings @kyled116 I can't really understand this graph, like I said I already checked these numbers myself, I will see what I can publish later.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356085572280803338
Date: 2021-02-01 03:42:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1356085512314867714)
Body: @ISilico @IshmaelCoin @liqmex @cmsholdings @kyled116 (BTC perps e.g.)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356085512314867714
Date: 2021-02-01 03:42:35 GMT
Replying to: @ISilico (Tweet ID: 1356085260635820032)
Body: @ISilico @IshmaelCoin @liqmex @cmsholdings @kyled116 Derivatives dwarf spot and are almost all of what impacts prices.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356079022925508609
Date: 2021-02-01 03:16:48 GMT
Replying to: @ISilico (Tweet ID: 1356078094264774658)
Body: @ISilico @IshmaelCoin @liqmex @cmsholdings @kyled116 I'll see if I can put something publishable together a bit later, XRP volatility calls.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356077623131004928
Date: 2021-02-01 03:11:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1356077497041920004)
Body: @ISilico @IshmaelCoin @liqmex @cmsholdings @kyled116 IDK man, gonna cut this off, I believe you are just wrong :P
Don't let bias let you ignore the most important exchanges!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356077497041920004
Date: 2021-02-01 03:10:44 GMT
Replying to: @ISilico (Tweet ID: 1356077315076272128)
Body: @ISilico @IshmaelCoin @liqmex @cmsholdings @kyled116 I just looked at our numbers and over the past month volume has been basically constant over time on average.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356077076403548160
Date: 2021-02-01 03:09:04 GMT
Replying to: @ISilico (Tweet ID: 1356076877409112066)
Body: @ISilico @IshmaelCoin @liqmex @cmsholdings @kyled116 https://t.co/jAWS1vPN0s
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356076892315545600
Date: 2021-02-01 03:08:20 GMT
Replying to: @ISilico (Tweet ID: 1356076220048408576)
Body: @ISilico @liqmex @cmsholdings @kyled116 Not in the ways you're saying.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356076046714499072
Date: 2021-02-01 03:04:58 GMT
Replying to: @ISilico (Tweet ID: 1356075833576841220)
Body: @ISilico @liqmex @cmsholdings @kyled116 As one side of a TON of the trades on both, I can confirm this is not true :P
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356075133157273602
Date: 2021-02-01 03:01:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1356074636677586945)
Body: @ISilico @liqmex @cmsholdings @kyled116 I'd find this a LOT more compelling if e.g. Binance, OKEx, Huobi, FTX followed the same pattern -- this is where the volume is.
(Also, you sorta set yourself up for this conclusion by looking at e.g. CME and not Binance)
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356074409585299456
Date: 2021-02-01 02:58:28 GMT
Replying to: @ISilico (Tweet ID: 1356074128239976450)
Body: @ISilico @liqmex @cmsholdings @kyled116 None of those exchanges is in the top 4 by volume on a typical day, and all 4 of the top 4 are Asia-dominated.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356073980617060369
Date: 2021-02-01 02:56:46 GMT
Replying to: @ISilico (Tweet ID: 1356073834257014786)
Body: @ISilico @liqmex @cmsholdings @kyled116 Asian volume DWARFs non-Asian volume, it isn't actually close at all.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356073825910222850
Date: 2021-02-01 02:56:09 GMT
Replying to: @LeslieisHODLing (Tweet ID: 1356073138887376897)
Body: @LeslieisHODLing @liqmex @cmsholdings @kyled116 So many (typically Asia-dominated) BTC perps, for isntance, are at persistent premia to spot (e.g. spot on U.S. exchanges).
There are U.S. inflows for sure -- but it's not as simple as America buys and Asia sells.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1356072390132867073
Date: 2021-02-01 02:50:27 GMT
Body: @liqmex @cmsholdings @kyled116 I'm legit just baffled at how the Asia/U.S. *timing* thing even gets brought up at all anymore, it's so patently not happening xD
(Which does *not* mean various organic flows aren't geographically-biased!)
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1355734823017488390
Date: 2021-01-31 04:29:04 GMT
Replying to: @krugermacro (Tweet ID: 1355670677697818624)
Body: @krugermacro @cryptojoker123 @angrybrittisher Hm disagree but if you’re right then you’ve got some $ to make!
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1355090611414556676
Date: 2021-01-29 09:49:12 GMT
Replying to: @sneakycapital (Tweet ID: 1355089615070220288)
Body: @snipXbt I don't exactly "leave the office" lately
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1355084503073447938
Date: 2021-01-29 09:24:56 GMT
Body: @elonmusk cheated on DOGE :( https://t.co/CBTulrdB5U
Stats: 14 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1355040192243986433
Date: 2021-01-29 06:28:51 GMT
Replying to: @Cryptolyx (Tweet ID: 1355039977957064706)
Body: @Cryptolyx After it hits $3
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1355038901023379456
Date: 2021-01-29 06:23:44 GMT
Replying to: @ISilico (Tweet ID: 1355038736598376452)
Body: @ISilico At least you were honest.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1355038555253301260
Date: 2021-01-29 06:22:21 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AOC: This is unacceptable.
We now need to know more about @RobinhoodApp’s decision to block retail investors from purchasing stock while hedge funds are freely able to trade the stock as they see fit.
As a member of the Financial Services Cmte, I’d support a hearing if necessary. https://t.co/4Qyrolgzyt
Body: How much DOGE you guys think she has? https://t.co/iB4mez9GT2
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354961175469940756
Date: 2021-01-29 01:14:52 GMT
Replying to: @nftcurve (Tweet ID: 1354957689076539405)
Body: @YearOfDoge @SBF_Alameda I would never.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354935387790086144
Date: 2021-01-28 23:32:24 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: https://t.co/tNMztG68VW https://t.co/TvfeUj8T1t
Body: MAN Robinhood’s body isn’t even cold yet. https://t.co/SoCelYkoPR
Stats: 97 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354826030654001157
Date: 2021-01-28 16:17:51 GMT
Replying to: @anonmenon111 (Tweet ID: 1354823800957747201)
Body: @vindimenon Great idea https://t.co/LtGQTwaOxV
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354816495168049155
Date: 2021-01-28 15:39:58 GMT
Replying to: @MikeMcDonald89 (Tweet ID: 1354816135858806785)
Body: @MikeMcDonald89 You must be thinking of someone else!!!!!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354815415256371210
Date: 2021-01-28 15:35:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354814499501432837)
Body: I’d delete it if I’d ever used it before.
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354814499501432837
Date: 2021-01-28 15:32:02 GMT
Quoted tweet: @rsalame7926: Sold everything I had in Robinhood / left a one star review / withdrew funds / deleted the app! Free markets only! #FTX
Body: Makes me proud. https://t.co/uD4dNM2lHp
Stats: 57 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354791493504888838
Date: 2021-01-28 14:00:37 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 1) I have a lot of shitposts that are maybe half clever.
But I think this is what I learned the most writing:
https://t.co/lOAEQyXDpA
Body: FTX isn't just part of the revolution -- they're leading it, now. https://t.co/jBUOVEMedI
Stats: 21 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354788066502746116
Date: 2021-01-28 13:47:00 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354787840719130625)
Body: And no one ever bans it ;)
Stats: 16 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354787840719130625
Date: 2021-01-28 13:46:06 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: In the other corner, DOGE. https://t.co/TmSkgvcj0k https://t.co/4I4RSO2vTq
Body: Wait real question: why aren't the WSB people just all trading crypto? This stuff they're obsessed with ACTUALLY just happens nonstop in these markets. https://t.co/woyQZJ99sH
Stats: 81 likes, 9 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354770416791736322
Date: 2021-01-28 12:36:52 GMT
Replying to: @kielebiele (Tweet ID: 1354765781213569024)
Body: @kielebiele I'm a fountain of knowledge!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354751826789240832
Date: 2021-01-28 11:23:00 GMT
Replying to: @SP4CR (Tweet ID: 1354750143459962880)
Body: @SP4CR I've never given anyone any investment advice! Weird.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354712527339352065
Date: 2021-01-28 08:46:50 GMT
Replying to: @SiegeRhino2 (Tweet ID: 1354708137593470977)
Body: @SiegeRhino2 https://t.co/mzZoTYciI1
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354686612152537090
Date: 2021-01-28 07:03:51 GMT
Quoted tweet: @CryptoNormanu: Easter egg of the day: if you input Sam's slack profile picture into a (Conway's) Game of Life simulator, you get a pair of small explosions that converge to a still pattern. There's probably a metaphor for trading in there somewhere. https://t.co/6s2YaychLl https://t.co/h8SEOU8ncF
Body: This is the most compelling content I’ve ever seen. https://t.co/JC2pKw1vX7
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354662892818190339
Date: 2021-01-28 05:29:36 GMT
Replying to: @TobbeTheTipper (Tweet ID: 1354662535211999239)
Body: @TobbeTheTipper That's where it started -- there've been liquidations too :P
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354661835216048130
Date: 2021-01-28 05:25:24 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What would happen if you took a shitcoin, added giant leverage, gave the entire world access to trading it, plastered it all over every financial news outlet, sicced Elon and WSB on it, and then let the situation kinda sort itself out?
Roughly? GME. https://t.co/PpJg7r1YWL https://t.co/FK18inH67H
Body: In the other corner, DOGE. https://t.co/TmSkgvcj0k https://t.co/4I4RSO2vTq
Stats: 24 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354653779677700102
Date: 2021-01-28 04:53:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354653571250221056)
Body: @SlimJim @WSBChairman @SBF_Alameda Oh alright they have a publicly listed parent company.
@SBF_Alameda when CAG????????
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354653571250221056
Date: 2021-01-28 04:52:34 GMT
Replying to: @SlimJim (Tweet ID: 1354648057623834626)
Body: @SlimJim @WSBChairman @SBF_Alameda when Slim Jim pre-IPO?????
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645956927492096
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354645955111391235)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Bigger is Bigger (when Betting is Better)
A thread about getting it in good.
(And a title about mocking @SBF_Alameda's little puns)
Body: I do think that crypto traders have an edge here, though! These are the sorts of situations we trade all the time because of how much more a factor margin is in our space. Use that edge well! I know I'm trying to.
https://t.co/nhCIi2SRTp
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645955111391235
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354645945921593344)
Body: BTC's mini-bubble half-burst at $40k -- and GME's will burst eventually. How hard it will fall and when? I don't know, and I think to know you'd need a TON of info about risk profiles of a bunch of firms we know very little about, as well as like, the proclivities of WSB. https://t.co/aTIoJ24DhD
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645945921593344
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:16 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354645944470388737)
Body: It would not surprise me at ALL for this thing to keep going another 1000% before the "liquidations" (shorts having to buy back) end -- nor would it surprise me for it to end as I type this. It's really hard to say!
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645944470388737
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354645942582923268)
Body: BTC's liquidations up were happening from $20k all through to $40k -- calling the top was not a trivial thing, and doing the same for GME is also not trivial without more info. Maybe only 10% of shorts have been squeezed, maybe Elon will keep tweeting, etc.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645942582923268
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354645938954924033)
Body: It's the same story as what drove BTC to $40k -- and we know what happened next!
Now, am I advocating selling GME? No! Not exactly. https://t.co/t9nEIijdXN
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645938954924033
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354645937210048514)
Body: Number go up:
... which causes the price to keep going up and up, which is just what's happened to GME (BTC's liquidations drove it up to $40k and above!). Inorganic buyers (Melvin) and people who anticipate that (e.g. if I expect Melvin to buy, I might too) both contribute.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645937210048514
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354645928439738372)
Body: When BTC (or any cryptocurrency) goes up a ton, because of the really high leverage crypto traders use, this typically begets a lot of buying liquidations, which causes even more buying -- which can cascade, forcing buys WAY higher than anyone actually *wanted* to buy. https://t.co/CDYRCFQ6gf
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645928439738372
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354645926485188609)
Body: Short squeeze:
But as we've discussed dozens of times -- organic buying does *not* explain all of it. GME had its "short squeeze" with the likes of Melvin forced to buy back. And this is exactly analogous to buying liquidations in BTC!
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645926485188609
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:11 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354645922102185986)
Body: Number go up:
And MAN did GME (and BTC) rally! The buying led by WSB (or, U.S. funds and companies) -- as well as from follow-on because of the *narrative* surrounding them -- set off the huge rally we saw from November to early January. https://t.co/ZV266UalxG
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645922102185986
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:10 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354645912799199233)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What happened on Thanksgiving 2020?
(Market color edition -- a thread about why liquidity matters) https://t.co/jAAeUi8GA7
Body: WSB thought it would be funny to buy it:
In this little game, WSB = U.S. institutional investors ca. Thanksgiving. Lots of funds, companies, etc. decided to put crypto onto their balance sheets -- this was the biggest late 2020 narrative.
https://t.co/POuO8KLNdf https://t.co/bcyFSRXRkI
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645912799199233
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354645908063809537)
Body: Melvin shorted the shit out of it:
When there's a fundamental reason to put a trade on, the market often will! BTC fell a lot in the early parts of this year as a result, as we all know. And BTC often reacts to news (either way) -- this is expected behavior. https://t.co/aTpks2dOIP
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645908063809537
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:07 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354645899180273664)
Body: GameStop sucks:
This is similar to there being a fundamentals-based reason for a coin (let's use BTC as an example) to go down. COVID, perhaps, or vol associated with the election, or OKEx locking funds, or BitMEX KYC, or whatever. These reasons can be good, but aren't always! https://t.co/fhAwAc0oTV
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645899180273664
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354645897695485952)
Body: And y'know what? This isn't *that* different from what often causes crypto to move (up, recently, but either way in principle) -- at least, some of the basic mechanics are really analogous.
Let's walk through some of those.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645897695485952
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354645895313199105)
Body: To recap the basic facts:
- GameStop (not GME, exactly) sucks
- Melvin (et al.) shorted the shit out of it
- WSB thought it would be funny to buy it
- Number go up
- Short squeeze
- Number go up
- And here we are
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354645895313199105
Date: 2021-01-28 04:22:04 GMT
Quoted tweet: @MondoTrades: Patiently awaiting @AlamedaTrabucco $GME thread 👀
Body: What would happen if you took a shitcoin, added giant leverage, gave the entire world access to trading it, plastered it all over every financial news outlet, sicced Elon and WSB on it, and then let the situation kinda sort itself out?
Roughly? GME. https://t.co/PpJg7r1YWL https://t.co/FK18inH67H
Stats: 39 likes, 8 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354639420717064192
Date: 2021-01-28 03:56:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354639379113811968)
Body: @python_trade @cmsholdings Great times.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354639379113811968
Date: 2021-01-28 03:56:10 GMT
Replying to: @python_trade (Tweet ID: 1354639130026790912)
Body: @python_trade @cmsholdings During the late 2017 - early 2018 alt season when Binance was constantly listing coins and causing them to triple.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354638932084854785
Date: 2021-01-28 03:54:24 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1354398989660139523)
Body: @cmsholdings Feel like this little narrative you're spinning is gonna get pretty untenable to maintain.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354638796717842434
Date: 2021-01-28 03:53:51 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1354467642585853956)
Body: @cmsholdings I did this during my first week trading crypto :(
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354616029016592384
Date: 2021-01-28 02:23:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354615401309585409)
Body: @MondoTrades Actually ehh I can make that a thread.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354615401309585409
Date: 2021-01-28 02:20:53 GMT
Replying to: @MondoTrades (Tweet ID: 1354602047237054466)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What happened on Thanksgiving 2020?
(Market color edition -- a thread about why liquidity matters) https://t.co/jAAeUi8GA7
Body: @MondoTrades Haha not sure I have a full thread of material I'd consider original -- FWIW it's kinda like this: https://t.co/POuO8KLNdf
But with "short squeeze"-ish effects playing the part of liquidations and "it's fucking GME" playing the part of "Thanksgiving" (-> low liquidity)
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354599264651939841
Date: 2021-01-28 01:16:46 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1354598362754871301)
Body: @SBF_Alameda On some level you referred everyone though. https://t.co/K4MjiStHqE
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354419229735464961
Date: 2021-01-27 13:21:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354418348843360258)
Body: @cmsholdings Even your bullying 0s and 1s tweets lack punctuation.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354418348843360258
Date: 2021-01-27 13:17:52 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1354409808615628801)
Body: @cmsholdings Leave me alone!!!
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354401728632819712
Date: 2021-01-27 12:11:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354400330218262532)
Body: @Gouketsu3 @cmsholdings I'm not saying I'm a genius but BTC went down more and GME went up since I said this.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354400330218262532
Date: 2021-01-27 12:06:16 GMT
Replying to: @Gouketsu3 (Tweet ID: 1354399560882409474)
Body: @Gouketsu3 @cmsholdings It was Americans selling their BTC so they can buy the GME dip.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354399295202451458
Date: 2021-01-27 12:02:10 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1354399200574730241)
Body: @cmsholdings GME crashes to 200 and BTC falls? Doesn't seem possible that's a coincidence.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354399200574730241
Date: 2021-01-27 12:01:47 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1354398989660139523)
Body: @cmsholdings GME is leading BTC you heard it here first.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354395893621944320
Date: 2021-01-27 11:48:39 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: alright fine
https://t.co/SSgDYQRNqe
why not
Body: FTX finally joined the movement. https://t.co/RUVv9USlXm
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1354087483475189760
Date: 2021-01-26 15:23:08 GMT
Replying to: @binance (Tweet ID: 1354087183578181632)
Body: @binance The 30 seconds I spent trying to parse this weren’t awesome.
Stats: 27 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1353949008075472896
Date: 2021-01-26 06:12:53 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1353894782733594626)
Body: @cmsholdings Good men failing to act: https://t.co/0bcWeFz7p1
Stats: 7 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1353863128686194689
Date: 2021-01-26 00:31:38 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 1) Slowly, then all at once https://t.co/YQbkaRjaWo
Body: Ohh now I understand why our slack got a #dogs channel the other day, he was right this was right under our noses. https://t.co/OuHgyghMpM
Stats: 21 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352980559648092162
Date: 2021-01-23 14:04:37 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1352973283495464962)
Body: @cmsholdings @cz_binance oooh
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352940751399710721
Date: 2021-01-23 11:26:26 GMT
Replying to: @cz_binance (Tweet ID: 1352616841814806529)
Body: @cz_binance @cmsholdings ooh how does this factor in
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352773779437445121
Date: 2021-01-23 00:22:56 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1352761052652597251)
Body: @cmsholdings Eh, you need this, I'll take the hit.
It's like if Jordan stubs his toe before 1v1'ing with a middle school student.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352494439093006338
Date: 2021-01-22 05:52:57 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1352483464382058497)
Body: @rsalame7926 @PiranhaBTC Ryan is a fairly bad servant FWIW, gets all uppity whenever you ask him to do anything.
Yesterday he screamed at me to “get the fuck away from him” when I was just trying to chat :(
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352480364606832640
Date: 2021-01-22 04:57:01 GMT
Replying to: @3L3C70 (Tweet ID: 1352470788612386819)
Body: @3L3C70 (to be clear the study in question was tongue-in-cheek and took 2 minutes :P)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352466149057863687
Date: 2021-01-22 04:00:32 GMT
Replying to: @ISilico (Tweet ID: 1352465953641148416)
Body: @ISilico I neither like nor dislike it!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352465751156789254
Date: 2021-01-22 03:58:57 GMT
Replying to: @ISilico (Tweet ID: 1352465356728766466)
Body: @ISilico Oh yeah I meant like: I tend to know how she thinks :P I'll prob listen later tho
Glad to hear it's a good one tho!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352464420044107777
Date: 2021-01-22 03:53:39 GMT
Replying to: @ISilico (Tweet ID: 1352463390808137728)
Body: @ISilico NGL I haven't actually listened to it since it would surprise me if it contained new info for me, what did she say about DeFi? :P
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352462302868463616
Date: 2021-01-22 03:45:15 GMT
Replying to: @3L3C70 (Tweet ID: 1352461825888030722)
Body: @3L3C70 Yes her study was bad and she should feel bad!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352459553682558981
Date: 2021-01-22 03:34:19 GMT
Quoted tweet: @jackshaftoes: Caroline Ellison a lead trader at @AlamedaResearch is always a pleasure to speak with. She manages a lot of responsibility at AR and is always open to share sharp market insights.
https://t.co/eZCnDWREqF https://t.co/Fl8KoJa9AD
Body: Caroline failed to mention that this was her: https://t.co/zSgGAnSlsx https://t.co/OU8GDafqq5
Stats: 29 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352449828865753088
Date: 2021-01-22 02:55:41 GMT
Replying to: @testinprodcap (Tweet ID: 1352420646140211200)
Body: @testinprodcap @_antiCHRIS @sassal0x Yeah my bad.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352215978537455616
Date: 2021-01-21 11:26:26 GMT
Replying to: @tackettzane (Tweet ID: 1352165777512677378)
Body: @tackettzane Actually no one voted for me except for @rsalame7926 and I was super offended and got really annoying about it.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352164294889127936
Date: 2021-01-21 08:01:04 GMT
Quoted tweet: @jackshaftoes: Caroline a lead trader from @AlamedaResearch shares some of the strategies involved with yield farming. Full episode coming soon! https://t.co/KMbZhRiU1q
Body: She also recently forced everyone at Alameda to vote on who the weirdest people are at Alameda are and released the results. https://t.co/76oOQcrZBN
Stats: 31 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352105328574423047
Date: 2021-01-21 04:06:45 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1352105118284607490)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/RzoDVmygjd
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352104993369722885
Date: 2021-01-21 04:05:25 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1352086257225134081)
Body: @cmsholdings How sure are we all the selling isn't coming out of specifically Ireland
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352077298560712705
Date: 2021-01-21 02:15:23 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 1) Congratulations, Mr. President and Madam Vice President
https://t.co/MclCxgWF6H https://t.co/iDER9j7Tfd
Body: Aw, a stray comparison between American electoral politics and blockchain technology aside (surprised BTC was chosen instead of SOL, maybe an ETH = Trump, SOL = Biden thing? Spitballing), this was oddly heartwarming. https://t.co/pqnJHdJ8Tt
Stats: 5 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352049256547328002
Date: 2021-01-21 00:23:57 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1351939942876733440)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @Nevermorexbt @JoeBiden Cool science fact: this is what Sam looks like after 3 years on the beanbag. https://t.co/5CwSo8Yh8z
Stats: 43 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1352039857602789376
Date: 2021-01-20 23:46:36 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: ok guys so we've got some news here
people are starting to sell https://t.co/BIe9S40zjA and it's only been 10 minutes since Biden was inaugurated
it's now down below 1%!
WEAK HANDS https://t.co/OXcnnZa3KQ
Body: And so ends one of my favorite trades ever :( https://t.co/hV3Vx92hFz
Stats: 55 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351831798028795904
Date: 2021-01-20 09:59:51 GMT
Replying to: @0x_007 (Tweet ID: 1351831560010477569)
Body: @thomas_0x Yeah I should some time! There are plenty :P
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351773345168048129
Date: 2021-01-20 06:07:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1351773132181233668)
Body: @cmsholdings If I send you a map labeled "treasure" right now I think there's like a 30% chance you drop everything and set sail.
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351773132181233668
Date: 2021-01-20 06:06:44 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1351733857989623808)
Body: @cmsholdings Don't tell me you wouldn't do this
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351741093985992705
Date: 2021-01-20 03:59:25 GMT
Body: @EadTrading https://t.co/EyGFcxrR0E
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351729388165894145
Date: 2021-01-20 03:12:54 GMT
Replying to: @crypto_silvia (Tweet ID: 1351729270784028672)
Body: @crypto_silvia I ALWAYS forget about this.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351722452041142272
Date: 2021-01-20 02:45:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1351722450350792706)
Body: This *doesn't* mean the buying IS from Asia, BTW -- like, OTC exists, maybe all the Binance buying is from OTC desks hedging their trades from U.S. companies, maybe U.S. companies have other entities, etc. But it DOES mean the story is WAY more complex than the one I often hear.
Stats: 20 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351722450350792706
Date: 2021-01-20 02:45:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1351722447045763073)
Body: The WAY bigger effects tend to be, like: Binance perps trade at a LARGE premium for a few hours, they're super liquid, BTC goes up as a result and some buying liquidations trigger causing it to go up more. As I type BTC perps there are 23bp rich to spot! https://t.co/Bojqvgq25M
Stats: 19 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351722447045763073
Date: 2021-01-20 02:45:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1351722444420210688)
Body: How could U.S. exchange flow be having even a *moderate* impact on the net crypto market's moves when the Asian exchanges dwarf their volume with their 100x-levered futures? The answer is: they can't :P
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351722444420210688
Date: 2021-01-20 02:45:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1351722440376807424)
Body: Most U.S. exchanges, due to their regulatory obligations, don't offer anywhere near as high leverage as Asian ones. This is THE reason Asian exchange volumes are so much higher -- just look at volumes from the past day.
https://t.co/jAWS1vyc8U https://t.co/sGkQmWd6tQ
Stats: 26 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351722440376807424
Date: 2021-01-20 02:45:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1351722438657142785)
Body: So, I'd frame the effect from the narrative here a *little* differently -- it's DRIVEN by U.S. institutions, but the buying is NOT all U.S., and the selling is CERTAINLY not all Asia. And, IDK, this has to be the case anyway because of how leverage works.
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351722438657142785
Date: 2021-01-20 02:45:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1351722434953560072)
Body: And Alameda *did* trade those, and we *did* notice that the effects were shifting earlier and earlier because of that + others doing the same thing. Also LOL, I found this (facetious :P) post I made from ca. Thanksgiving., enjoy. https://t.co/aZ1tdAReV3
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351722434953560072
Date: 2021-01-20 02:45:16 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1351722433514860545)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: So, what is BTC doing right now? I don’t *know* what’s driving a lot of it directionally (I do have theories, of course, but I don’t exactly know), but given that “up” is the direction it’s chosen to go in general, there is some headway I can make in dissecting what’s going on. https://t.co/wjjSI3j5mI
Body: FWIW, crypto *did* have a time-of-day effect for a bit toward the beginning, especially during the $20k dance -- this was before enough of the market by volume was predicting a U.S. narrative, and so there wasn't enough pre-positioning to erode it away.
https://t.co/chu9cG87fB
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351722433514860545
Date: 2021-01-20 02:45:16 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1351722431564533760)
Body: Nope! We'd buy every day ay 8am and sell every day at 8pm. And then the effect would shift earlier and earlier until it's kinda unrecognizably a time-of-day effect anymore! The thing with predictable price effects: they can't exist forever.
Stats: 32 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351722431564533760
Date: 2021-01-20 02:45:16 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1351722422475530240)
Body: Well, let's say that Alameda does a study and determines a time of day effect exists where BTC goes up at 9am Eastern and down at 9pm. Would we just sort of let that exist and gawk at it? https://t.co/CUHq3a3Hge
Stats: 18 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351722422475530240
Date: 2021-01-20 02:45:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1351722421053648897)
Body: But BTC does *not* have a super consistent time-of-day effect right now. In fact, even if we KNEW someone was gonna buy a ton every U.S. day, this time of day effect would not exist. How come?
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351722421053648897
Date: 2021-01-20 02:45:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1351722419635974144)
Body: And sometimes I think claims like this are at least defensible. Like, sure, part of the narrative is that Grayscale has a lot of creations, probably that means U.S. "is buying" to some extent. And when BTC does (sometimes) go up during U.S. hours and down later, sure.
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351722419635974144
Date: 2021-01-20 02:45:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1351722417740161025)
Body: It's easy to make the leap from "U.S. institutions fueling the rally" to "U.S. is buying crypto and fueling the rally." And THEN it's easy to make the leap to "when crypto sells off, Asia is selling." I see people make these leaps all the time!
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351722417740161025
Date: 2021-01-20 02:45:12 GMT
Body: The most popular narrative surrounding the crypto rally for the past few months has been clear and consistent: U.S. institutional buying is fueling everything. And I agree that this narrative has basically been right!
But ... I also think there's nuance here which can be lost. https://t.co/0gg2ZR2LFz
Stats: 166 likes, 25 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351134144567382016
Date: 2021-01-18 11:47:37 GMT
Quoted tweet: @LennixOKX: Fantastic catching up with these guys - Joseph Chang @LiquibitCapital, @AlamedaTrabucco at Alameda Research & @Danny8BC @8blockscapital. They shared their knowledge and insights on @OKEx Unified Account.
Watch the video here: https://t.co/2gpUUZTQjJ https://t.co/FvWdo6cZpz
Body: God knows I enjoy talking about margin. https://t.co/beinBBUgz6
Stats: 22 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1351014182125240323
Date: 2021-01-18 03:50:56 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1351004479873806339)
Body: @cmsholdings Can the guests bring their own agendas
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1350997932103884805
Date: 2021-01-18 02:46:21 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: https://t.co/Fs0oytoLwF
Body: https://t.co/QxMl8zabMS https://t.co/6PKqmlfQxd
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1350498495640190977
Date: 2021-01-16 17:41:47 GMT
Replying to: @WalterBlazeberg (Tweet ID: 1350497768414986241)
Body: @Spoon97262961 @paoloardoino @Tether_to @bitfinex @SBF_Alameda @dzrgreg @cmsholdings @adam3us @Excellion @Arnab_Naskarr 10000% backing is a weird requirement
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1350263218736750592
Date: 2021-01-16 02:06:52 GMT
Replying to: @anonmenon111 (Tweet ID: 1350262662618353665)
Body: @vindimenon For a while approximating 1% of 1 BTC = $100 worked really well and some of us still fuck up sometimes as a result :P
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349837437070045185
Date: 2021-01-14 21:54:58 GMT
Replying to: @dj_d_sol (Tweet ID: 1349703587522371584)
Body: @dj_d_sol Closer to: if you hold people's positions fixed, as BTC gets to e.g. a new ATH, you expect some amount of shorts to get liquidated because the level at which they will get liquidated has never been reached before but just did.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349834105035190272
Date: 2021-01-14 21:41:44 GMT
Replying to: @Jason_Poole (Tweet ID: 1349758528274227207)
Body: @Jason_Poole Honestly no idea xD like I said I've found all of this baffling.
Probably something like not enough of them had FTX accounts in the right jurisdictions.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349833694719033345
Date: 2021-01-14 21:40:06 GMT
Replying to: @Haoskionchain (Tweet ID: 1349807658451275779)
Body: @Haoskionchain Less clear than it was for BTC -- the $20k narrative for BTC was just SO strong. Maybe similar though.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349651202145882117
Date: 2021-01-14 09:34:56 GMT
Replying to: @DanOBrienPoker (Tweet ID: 1349650826768183298)
Body: @DanOBrienPoker Yeah played a decent amount in college and when I was living in Philly for a few years, haven’t played much recently but we just got a poker table in the office so hoping to make something happen there xD
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349649399471738881
Date: 2021-01-14 09:27:46 GMT
Replying to: @DanOBrienPoker (Tweet ID: 1349647582830596097)
Body: @DanOBrienPoker Yeah pre-committed to trying to stuff this into one tweet and sorta failed lol — it did prove a little unwieldy for me to define even though it’s pretty clear to me like, what is an is not an example of it.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349648109496799232
Date: 2021-01-14 09:22:39 GMT
Replying to: @sichlia (Tweet ID: 1349646322656292865)
Body: @sichlia Most but not all.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349618399723220994
Date: 2021-01-14 07:24:35 GMT
Replying to: @gob_an (Tweet ID: 1349617500057645059)
Body: @serum_an Oh this effect specifically isn't one we're currently betting on -- I don't tend to discuss any trades we've got ongoing.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349584802475769856
Date: 2021-01-14 05:11:05 GMT
Replying to: @FOMO_No_Mo (Tweet ID: 1349580104826023944)
Body: @FOMO_No_Mo both pending market conditions!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349577785266892800
Date: 2021-01-14 04:43:12 GMT
Replying to: @FOMO_No_Mo (Tweet ID: 1349576096988205064)
Body: @FOMO_No_Mo d) given volume probably a) because of d xD b) not exactly sure, probably something about distrust of banks
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349568557516873731
Date: 2021-01-14 04:06:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349568045824450560)
Body: @SLadington Also, let's say I give you two bets:
- 99% to win $10, 1% to lose $90
- 55% to win $50, 45% to lose $50
Which is better?
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349568045824450560
Date: 2021-01-14 04:04:30 GMT
Replying to: @SLadington (Tweet ID: 1349567962244517891)
Body: @SLadington Umm it over-performed :P
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349562381769207811
Date: 2021-01-14 03:42:00 GMT
Replying to: @3L3C70 (Tweet ID: 1349562046983987201)
Body: @3L3C70 Eh, it's the kind of thing we'd only pay to hedge if our position were like, ex-risk size (it isn't :P)
Also there wasn't a super liquid way to hedge anyway.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349558607323439105
Date: 2021-01-14 03:27:00 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1349558277928050688)
Body: @cmsholdings @avichal @jespow @Galois_Capital @CheesyCapital @SBF_Alameda @zackvoell https://t.co/HsWORnF4qA
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349554001713381382
Date: 2021-01-14 03:08:42 GMT
Replying to: @Ertyop4 (Tweet ID: 1349553527794724865)
Body: @Ertyop4 EV = expected value, how much a given thing (often a bet, or a trade) is worth on average (if you, say, repeated it over and over)
If I flip a coin and offer you $2 if it's heads, and you pay me $1 if it's tails, the EV (for you) is
.5 * +$2 + .5 * -$1 = $.50
Stats: 8 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349550583225540609
Date: 2021-01-14 02:55:07 GMT
Replying to: @frxresearch (Tweet ID: 1349550053971488770)
Body: @frxresearch @ConvexMonster oh yeah i meant the series of threads i was posting simultaneously xD
i'm mostly just kinda lazy abt the numbers
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349548297594101760
Date: 2021-01-14 02:46:02 GMT
Replying to: @JWestJest (Tweet ID: 1349547797297684480)
Body: @JWestJest Story made sense, really seemed like nothing China-wide was happening, and we found the thing about "this one guy is the only one who can free the $, it's LITERALLY not possible without him" quite unlikely to be legit (like, idk, what if he dies? no way they didn't plan for that)
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349540081212669952
Date: 2021-01-14 02:13:23 GMT
Replying to: @ConvexMonster (Tweet ID: 1349539020217352192)
Body: @ConvexMonster this was kinda complicated yeah
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539611274407936
Date: 2021-01-14 02:11:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539602588024835)
Body: Edge is precious, and when you've got it it's so important to leverage it. A good trader figures out their edge and makes money from it -- to be the best, you've gotta know when to size up. Getting it in good? That's good! But getting it ALL in GREAT? That's even better. https://t.co/WOv0AzjlxW
Stats: 186 likes, 22 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539602588024835
Date: 2021-01-14 02:11:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539493670371330)
Body: We knew we had edge -- HUGE edge, maybe -- in all of these cases. Making ... 10? 100? More? Times as much on a trade where we KNOW that? That's worth a TON! And figuring out how to size our best trades up is as critical as finding them, often WAY more so.
Stats: 64 likes, 6 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539493670371330
Date: 2021-01-14 02:11:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539351617708033)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Ah, election trading. I think trading the election in November was some of the most fun I've ever had in my life ... for the first day. Maaaybe the second.
Kinda wasn't expecting it to last 3 months.
https://t.co/punEQoyRSu
Body: And, one of my favorite (and most baffling) trades ever -- how have we optimized around the crazy TRUMPFEB trading during the past few months?
https://t.co/dWbXPh8q9G
Stats: 37 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539463630790656
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539454847840258)
Body: Thinking about maximizing edge ALL the time -- even when the decision won't really matter for hours, or days, or, in this case, kinda weeks -- is critical, and counter-intuitive, and hard -- but nailing it all the time pays rich dividends, and we didn't *totally* nail this. https://t.co/1jlvue3Iac
Stats: 20 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539454847840258
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539453551869953)
Body: We don't know! We put up a TON of offers way below that. Maybe more sellers come in if it gets higher, maybe fewer people buy -- but there was a chance, and we ruined it for ourselves.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539453551869953
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539452297773056)
Body: But ... did we really kill it? Eh. I think from day 2 on, basically, yeah, we got as much $ in as we could. But day 1 ... bids were price-insensitive. Would they have paid .30? .50? Higher???
Stats: 9 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539452297773056
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539450947203072)
Body: (And it did slow, others did start selling, buying appetites did wane, etc. -- but like, not quickly enough, and we sold a LOT, and WAY over our fair -- we really, really liked these trades :D)
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539450947203072
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539449613402114)
Body: This went on for WEEKS! We maybe cut the amount of *contracts* we sold in half or something -- but the price at which we sold? At least 5 times as high as otherwise. This was great! We figured out how to get more $ in when (we believe) the $ was GREAT.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539449613402114
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539448296411137)
Body: So instead, we could just sell .15s (maybe .14s too) and see what happens. And the bids kept refreshing! So we kept stepping our offers UP ... and no one came in to sell more aggressively, somehow? Not for size anyway. And the bids got met us up at .20!
Stats: 7 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539448296411137
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539446710943746)
Body: Well, it started out bid ... .15 or so. Level one thought: we could just sell it down to our fair + .01 or something and keep selling. But that caps the price for future bids at .02! And maybe every bid will be price-insensitive -- god knows the initial ones seemed so.
Stats: 6 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539446710943746
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539437160538112)
Body: Also, to pre-empt! "We" is Alameda Research, the trading firm where I work. "We" is not FTX, the exchange where this product trades! We used FTX to trade it, we are not FTX, and we have no real idea who we were trading against except that some of them have harassed me on Twitter. https://t.co/Rxkni6As4A
Stats: 139 likes, 18 retweets, 9 quote tweets, 11 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539437160538112
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539435411431424)
Body: We quickly decided we believed our fair way more than the market and that there were no real selection effects here -- it all became a question of maximizing the amount of $ we could make from selling into the bids.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539435411431424
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539431586295810)
Body: But, always a silver lining: people were bidding TRUMPFEB high. WAY higher than we ever thought was reasonable -- we couldn't find a single informed source who honestly believed the probability of Trump remaining in office was higher than 1% or so. And LOOK at this chart! https://t.co/d3u1e7AH9A
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539431586295810
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:48 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Results have slowed down again for the day -- PA and GA are trickling in, but for the most part I expect the biggest changes to resume again tomorrow. So I figured I’d share some insight into how Alameda thought about and handled this wild election (which isn’t even over). https://t.co/e0iZr32GD9
Body: Ah, election trading. I think trading the election in November was some of the most fun I've ever had in my life ... for the first day. Maaaybe the second.
Kinda wasn't expecting it to last 3 months.
https://t.co/punEQoyRSu
Stats: 34 likes, 3 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539351617708033
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539162651672576)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: As I've been saying a lot lately on Twitter, Alameda is quite comfortable with the Tether team, and we do a lot of large creations! I talked about that in more length in this thread: https://t.co/dmAjaW6yEP
Body: I'm kinda just poking the bear with this one.
But the bear is like, right there. And this stick was expensive!
How do we decide how much USDT to create?
https://t.co/h0cH9Bj9HD https://t.co/dEGDQKYmkM
Stats: 37 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539306482724867
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539297615986690)
Body: We're better at this now -- and we're maximizing our bets a lot more efficiently when the premium and market conditions line up the best. https://t.co/tsMonDxNRi
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539296273829888
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:16 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539294898130944)
Body: Originally, though, we were getting this *quite* wrong -- we were being too conservative in estimating average premium, and we were over-estimating capital cost because we thought it would take longer to cycle. So we were under-creating by a lot.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539294898130944
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539293409103873)
Body: So! This gets us to a point where we understand how much a given size will cost us (in fees, execution, opportunity cost). We compare to the premium we expect to sell the USDT at, and if it's good we do it! And we do the size S maximizing S * average profit.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539293409103873
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539292066979840)
Body: And we've run studies about this, too -- but mostly this is a human call, since the value of spare capital varies so much with market conditions (when things are volatile, keeping spare $ around to do awesome trades with is better, for instance, than when it's slow).
Stats: 7 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539292066979840
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539290422800385)
Body: Starting the USDT cycle requires a capital investment -- sending to create, and then that capital is being used in the various legs for some period. The first $1 we lock is less costly than the 50000000th since, if size > our free capital, we need to unwind positions, e.g.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539290422800385
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539281006563328)
Body: Z: size also matters here, actually! At any point we have some amount of capital floating around, free to do "the best trades" or just to chill if we think the best trade is "wait for something amazing to pop up and have capital ready for it." https://t.co/rxtxXwBBKU
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539281006563328
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539279668535297)
Body: The more size you're doing, the more impact each of these legs can have (selling more spot BTC into USD, buying more spot BTC with USDT) -- and that increases the cost of execution, Y. We've run studies to determine this cost Y for various sizes.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539279668535297
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539278376771584)
Body: Y: this is where size starts to matter! The legs of this trade are: sell something (probably BTC) into USD, create USDT with USD, use the USD to generate something (probably BTC), and end up back where you started. And if the trade's still good, cycle! (We often do this).
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539278376771584
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:11 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539277017804802)
Body: X: this fee has varied over time a bit, but ultimately is pretty easy to understand and stays pretty constant almost all the time. FWIW, X != 0 is why the USDT premium can persist, since there's technically no way for people to just transact with USDT for $1 infinitely.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539277017804802
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:11 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539275319111680)
Body: Soon after we got set up to do creations, we did some initial studies to determine how much we could sell above $1 + X + Y + Z, where X was creation cost, Y was "execution cost," and Z was "cost of tying up capital." We also charge for our time and add some edge somewhere.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539275319111680
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:11 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539266158706689)
Body: What does "large" mean, though? Well, it depends! And it doesn't just depends on any absolute metrics, or on market conditions, or whatever -- it also depends on our own ability to think through the question of "how much should we create" and "how much is like, too much, c'mon." https://t.co/Vs25Q5IK1l
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539266158706689
Date: 2021-01-14 02:10:08 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: BTW, to connect some dots here -- a lot of the people seeking access to a coin like USDT *aren't* doing so via creation. They're often doing so via just sorta buying it in the markets -- and they're buying a LOT, and REALLY aggressively. https://t.co/pKRj3AMJ9D
Body: As I've been saying a lot lately on Twitter, Alameda is quite comfortable with the Tether team, and we do a lot of large creations! I talked about that in more length in this thread: https://t.co/dmAjaW6yEP
Stats: 27 likes, 7 retweets, 11 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539162651672576
Date: 2021-01-14 02:09:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538928940892163)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: BTC took forever to break through $20k -- I talked about the day when it finally happened here: https://t.co/oWA6dZKQej
Body: BTC's price has been in a sort of specific paradigm for the past few months -- and we felt like we REALLY understood it around a few price levels. How did we choose how much to bet?
https://t.co/XrRicO7VQK
Stats: 50 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539043189555200
Date: 2021-01-14 02:09:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539034498965504)
Body: It served as an important lesson for us -- for a coin as liquid as BTC? Rarely a reason to think you have a lot of edge in a trade and not just bet BIG. We're lucky to have large risk tolerance -- we can take swings, and that LETS us get it in good. We've gotta do it when we can. https://t.co/BGqaGUTaQo
Stats: 27 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539034498965504
Date: 2021-01-14 02:09:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539033068654594)
Body: But ... Alameda has good execution, and suffice to say we did not really approach the limits of how much we can execute without paying too much through books. I think we screwed this up -- there wasn't great reason to think there'd be selection effects, and we KNEW this was +EV.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539033068654594
Date: 2021-01-14 02:09:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539031378395137)
Body: Does this make sense? Maybe -- sometimes if you're not confident about a big effect like this, betting big can be iffy because there might be huge selection effects, or if you're wrong you might pay a lot to get in and out.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539031378395137
Date: 2021-01-14 02:09:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539026999545857)
Body: And it did! Around as strongly. And we did bet on it! But we were way less confident, and, accordingly, we bet it way smaller. https://t.co/CXgno9FCMv
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539026999545857
Date: 2021-01-14 02:09:11 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539025292464129)
Body: When $30k came around? We thought the same thing would happen but we were WAY less confident. There'd just been less time for big shorts to get put on, so we didn't know if there'd be the same effect. Notably, though, we DID think it would happen in EV.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539025292464129
Date: 2021-01-14 02:09:11 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539016610250753)
Body: And we kept doing this as BTC was rising! Because, as it rose? Higher prices -> more shorts liquidated -> etc. Huge momentum potential that kept materializing! I think we nailed this, couldn't have been buying much more without crushing markets and getting bad prices. https://t.co/fU0XJRMn5v
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539016610250753
Date: 2021-01-14 02:09:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539014861221889)
Body: ... and this was a GLOBAL optimum, so we knew there'd likely be tons of liquidations once it broke through $20k. So, once that happened? We literally got as long as we could, given the liquidity, and without fucking up our execution too badly.
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539014861221889
Date: 2021-01-14 02:09:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349539011358908417)
Body: Right after it broke through, I noted in the thread that our big intuition was that it would RIP up even more. And then rip, and rip, and rip -- which it did! We were confident because of what we knew about liquidation behavior near recent optima ... https://t.co/sunkNVVtQt
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349539011358908417
Date: 2021-01-14 02:09:08 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Many close calls later, BTC finally managed to break through $20k -- and it BLEW through it, barely slowing down til $22k. What was different this time?
A thread about man vs. machine.
https://t.co/mGRJ852xVb https://t.co/gEZ96KAzkJ
Body: BTC took forever to break through $20k -- I talked about the day when it finally happened here: https://t.co/oWA6dZKQej
Stats: 38 likes, 6 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538928940892163
Date: 2021-01-14 02:08:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538735415730177)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: During this period, when XRP was plagued by rumors about the SEC's investigation into Ripple, we realized pretty early on that XRP's price was *really* reactive to headlines -- in a fairly surprising way. https://t.co/qzNRnoum1n
Body: During the week or so when lots of news about XRP was coming out, we realized early on it was reacting kinda ... idiosyncratically. What did we do in response?
https://t.co/ta7urBlue0
Stats: 48 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538858774323201
Date: 2021-01-14 02:08:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538849555316742)
Body: (For the record, I believe I was the one sizing these bets, so I am purely pointing out my own mistakes right now :P). https://t.co/MQufDgJI0z
Stats: 33 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538849555316742
Date: 2021-01-14 02:08:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538848271785984)
Body: Ultimately? I actually think we should have just gotten way shorter. We would have had worse execution, but this was a POWERFUL trade -- we knew news was coming and we knew what would happen when it did. I think doubling and paying 2% more was predictably good, so I give us a B.
Stats: 29 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538848271785984
Date: 2021-01-14 02:08:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538846296346625)
Body: We made a list of all the bad news announcements we thought were likely, and we just kinda waited for then to come out. Bittrex delisting? Hit. Grayscale removing? Hit. Etc. We got less short once these "seemed over" (this was more about intuition on timing than anything).
Stats: 37 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538846296346625
Date: 2021-01-14 02:08:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538837123350528)
Body: ... but ... why? Once 3 other American exchanges announced they were gonna distance from XRP, didn't we kinda just know beforehand that the 4th would announce the same? Alameda thought so! But the world kept selling headlines -- so we decided to KEEP selling pretty often. https://t.co/4CW36JaJTs
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538837123350528
Date: 2021-01-14 02:08:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538835709915136)
Body: But yeah, after the Big News, there was a bunch more little news -- things like the fourth exchange announcing they were delisting XRP, the seventh OTC desk announcing they were halting it, the third fund announcing they were selling. Each time, XRP got hit ...
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538835709915136
Date: 2021-01-14 02:08:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538832027303938)
Body: And the latter consideration WAS the most important -- there were a TON of liquidations, as you expect for a major asset falling 10s of %s at a time. So we basically just bet as big as liquidity would let us on momentum on the way down, which ended up great.
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538832027303938
Date: 2021-01-14 02:08:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538830555226113)
Body: We decided a few things:
- probably, *we* were not the people with the best handle of like, the legal landscape, to the point where we didn't think we had a "fundamental understanding" of how bad this was
- probably, it didn't matter a ton, because liquidations
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538830555226113
Date: 2021-01-14 02:08:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538828667678720)
Body: The big news obviously had big impact -- it fell a TON when that first happened. As a bit of a side note, how to size bets on that first crash? In this case, we of course were confident it was ~bad~ -- how bad?
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538828667678720
Date: 2021-01-14 02:08:24 GMT
Body: During this period, when XRP was plagued by rumors about the SEC's investigation into Ripple, we realized pretty early on that XRP's price was *really* reactive to headlines -- in a fairly surprising way. https://t.co/qzNRnoum1n
Stats: 84 likes, 9 retweets, 5 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538735415730177
Date: 2021-01-14 02:08:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538591039393793)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Amidst OKEx's withdrawal suspension -- there was a big level one concern -- Alameda does trade on OKEx, and we had some funds locked there. Was there anything to do?
Body: When OKEx's withdrawals got blocked, many in the space panicked -- how did we decide what to do?
https://t.co/RvPDk8k3Vh
Stats: 45 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538698447126529
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538696853262336)
Body: Getting past level one to: not only are we not sellers, we're HUGE buyers -- even though it's risky -- because, in fact, we can take the risk and this trade is GREAT according to what we know -- was crucial, and it's something we're always aiming to do.
Stats: 35 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538696853262336
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538683691560960)
Body: And it paid off! I'm not too sure we could have gotten much more flow here than we did, we were able to trade almost all of it, and the prices were quite good for us. (And for sellers, in EV! Insurance tends to be win-win since people have different risk profiles.) https://t.co/QaUhAk614L
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538683691560960
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538682106048513)
Body: And so we sought sellers! Aggressively, we made it clear to anyone who wanted this kind of insurance that we were down. We worked hard at ensuring we had operational capacity to accept it, we used our OTC network, and we MAXIMIZED this.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538682106048513
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538672945741824)
Body: And so we decided that, in the absence of a HUGE update (big bad news about OKEx or China or whatever, or someone who we thought was a) informed b) risk-tolerant like us selling), we wanted to buy a LOT down there. https://t.co/HYvSJCklTA
Stats: 9 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538672945741824
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538671704252416)
Body: Seemed *really* bad, actually -- we thought anyone selling into those bids was WAY overpaying for insurance. (A big part was that OKEx trading remained great, BTW -- that made the opportunity cost quite small).
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538671704252416
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538670550806530)
Body: Eh, not really. There were OTC markets like, 25% down from spot that various people were bidding for OKEx funds -- but once we accounted for actual risk (seemed small, the chances it was actually seized seemed *really( small given what we knew) and opportunity cost, seemed bad.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538670550806530
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:46 GMT
Body: Amidst OKEx's withdrawal suspension -- there was a big level one concern -- Alameda does trade on OKEx, and we had some funds locked there. Was there anything to do?
Stats: 60 likes, 7 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538591039393793
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538589722304513)
Body: Here are some short threads, each detailing a recent-ish trading situation and how Alameda handled it. Each is an example where we either made a great decision because we got it in good, or realized we screwed that up in retrospect:
Stats: 75 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538589722304513
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538588086599680)
Body: And never more than when I'm trading. I make thousands of trading decisions per day -- meaning I've made millions lifetime. Yet, I'm pretty sure the 10ish that mattered most had higher PNL impact than all the rest -- and that's because I'm generally cognizant of when to bet big.
Stats: 110 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538588086599680
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538579207258115)
Body: I try to think like this *all* the time in my life -- in college I hoarded Chipotle gift cards every December when you got a free burrito per $25. I've barely slept for the past ... uh, months now, planning to sleep when trading less intense. Etc., all the time. Relatable! https://t.co/kQyqfS7eQH
Stats: 72 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538579207258115
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538577915342850)
Body: And there are many more examples -- anything with betting will tend to at least often involve this (if you're thinking about it right), but anything where actions have some uncertainty and quantifiable outcomes with EV CAN involve ideas surrounding getting it in good.
Stats: 52 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538577915342850
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538575889489920)
Body: BTW, this is why a good pit boss can detect a counter -- they'll count too and check who's increasing bet size at the right times.
(I may or may not be banned from 3 casinos for this. Allegedly!)
Stats: 232 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538575889489920
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538562014814208)
Body: Counters are just tracking this, and betting max when it gets good to do so -- betting min otherwise. This is a pure example of getting it in good! And really, it's analogous to trading -- using the count as a signal and putting on a bet when the signal tells you to. https://t.co/t6Pz3Q72mM
Stats: 60 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538562014814208
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538560714502144)
Body: Some blackjack tables don't shuffle too often, and sometimes that means that deck composition can get "screwy." If there are more AKQJT cards left than usual (vs. the really low cards), it turns out that the odds can shift to the player's advantage.
Stats: 49 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538560714502144
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538558881644544)
Body: Blackjack is a casino staple -- and counting cards while playing is a Hollywood staple. But it's actually a strategy that does work under some conditions! And it all comes down to getting it in good.
Stats: 48 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538558881644544
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538549536755713)
Body: These wagers were some of the best spots in his life, probably -- even money for 5 figures on a trivia question he's 90%+ to get right? Betting max is the epitome of getting it in good, and he did that -- a LOT, and made a LOT. https://t.co/C0aQOuX5Z0
Stats: 72 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538549536755713
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538548215554049)
Body: But not James! He knew his chances to get a random response right were high enough that his maximizing strategy was to bet HUGE early-ish til the game is locked up -- that's how he carried his streak so far. Same for Final Jeopardy, except by then the games usually *were* locked.
Stats: 46 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538548215554049
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538546269372418)
Body: "Jeopardy!" selects for trivia skills (and camera readiness etc.) during casting. However, there are also various chances to make wagers during the game, and that can matter just as much as anything else. But casting doesn't filter for it *at all*, so most players are REALLY bad.
Stats: 44 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538546269372418
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538537247395840)
Body: @James_Holzhauer recently took "Jeopardy!" by storm, winning 32 games with an average score very close to the previous *all-time record*. Of course his incredible trivia and buzzer skills were at play here -- but that's not all that was happening ...
(R.I.P. Alex Trebek) https://t.co/8YCZngOx71
Stats: 47 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538537247395840
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538535292895233)
Body: This concept is *really* important to trading -- and I'll get there in a bit. But I wanted to illustrate the concept a bit more with some non-trading examples from something like "the real world" first.
Stats: 69 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538535292895233
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538526509953024)
Body: Example: with top pair vs. a flush draw on the turn (and say you're confident about this, and you opponent knows that, etc. etc.): if they miss the river you're getting $0 more, if they hit you lose. So you want to get your opponent's chips in the middle on the turn! https://t.co/9HUiaS7cLd
Stats: 87 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538526509953024
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349538525218127872)
Body: Getting it in good is a poker term referring to the idea that, when your odds are best (strictly speaking, EV of winnings, not odds per se), you wanna bet more. For many players, the ability to recognize spots where this matters is the difference between playing + and -EV poker.
Stats: 151 likes, 6 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 14 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349538525218127872
Date: 2021-01-14 02:07:12 GMT
Body: Bigger is Bigger (when Betting is Better)
A thread about getting it in good.
(And a title about mocking @SBF_Alameda's little puns)
Stats: 1479 likes, 303 retweets, 89 quote tweets, 655 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349531523758784513
Date: 2021-01-14 01:39:23 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1349530014618853377)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @lylepratt @SantiagoAuFund @cmsholdings @paoloardoino @bitcoinlawyer (yeah I've been skirting because I'm not sure what I'm allowed to say, would be helpful if you just went to the source :P)
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349515558996250626
Date: 2021-01-14 00:35:56 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1349515423931396096)
Body: @cmsholdings @Galois_Capital @CheesyCapital @SBF_Alameda @zackvoell We're only interested in Sams.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349494665481838593
Date: 2021-01-13 23:12:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349494608334471168)
Body: @cmsholdings @CheesyCapital @SBF_Alameda @zackvoell I'm younger than you is the gist.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349494608334471168
Date: 2021-01-13 23:12:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349494334563840000)
Body: @cmsholdings @CheesyCapital @SBF_Alameda @zackvoell Players rebranded as "planeswalkers" after "witches" fell out of favor during your time in Salem.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349494334563840000
Date: 2021-01-13 23:11:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349493958527787008)
Body: @cmsholdings @CheesyCapital @SBF_Alameda @zackvoell I heard there were only 4 colors back when you were playing; Green was added in the 1960s due to pushback about WOTC's lack of concern for the environment.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349493958527787008
Date: 2021-01-13 23:10:06 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1349493700272001027)
Body: @cmsholdings @CheesyCapital @SBF_Alameda @zackvoell I wasn't born yet before Onslaught.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349486209681088514
Date: 2021-01-13 22:39:19 GMT
Replying to: @SantiagoAuFund (Tweet ID: 1349485392286765057)
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: @RiskIndemnity @SantiagoAuFund other institutes
Body: @SantiagoAuFund @lylepratt @cmsholdings https://t.co/CbMLPsTTOH
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349485907628363776
Date: 2021-01-13 22:38:07 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1349485106327650305)
Body: @cmsholdings @CheesyCapital @SBF_Alameda @zackvoell Some rules changes have taken place:
- instants can only be played on your opponent's turn
- cards can only be played on the turn they're drawn
- max 2 of any basic land
The client doesn't enforce these but I promise they're real, please keep them in mind while we play.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349482959611387907
Date: 2021-01-13 22:26:24 GMT
Replying to: @CheesyCapital (Tweet ID: 1349474496349167619)
Body: @CheesyCapital @SBF_Alameda @zackvoell @cmsholdings I wanna stream us playing Magic and let people bet on it but @SBF_Alameda is a coward.
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349479517815902208
Date: 2021-01-13 22:12:43 GMT
Replying to: @FigmentOur (Tweet ID: 1349261243480039426)
Body: @FigmentOur @SBF_Alameda bro
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349478476345081856
Date: 2021-01-13 22:08:35 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1349478257738080256)
Body: @cmsholdings @lylepratt @SantiagoAuFund ok melania https://t.co/jvRDUrpNfX
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349478163768766468
Date: 2021-01-13 22:07:20 GMT
Replying to: @lylepratt (Tweet ID: 1349474483762049024)
Body: @lylepratt @SantiagoAuFund @cmsholdings Oh yeah not really :P
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349478097880375298
Date: 2021-01-13 22:07:05 GMT
Replying to: @shvandrew (Tweet ID: 1349474335568834563)
Body: @shvandrew Typically.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349472517749051397
Date: 2021-01-13 21:44:54 GMT
Replying to: @shvandrew (Tweet ID: 1349336091774615553)
Body: @shvandrew We just do the trades that make $, sometimes redeeming does sometimes it doesn't.
Premia have made it s.t. creating is correct WAY more often than redeeming -- contrary to popular claim, USDT is lamost always >$1, in the past few months anyway.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349472203293696001
Date: 2021-01-13 21:43:39 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1349343255217856514)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @zackvoell @cmsholdings Should we publish some dueling google docs some time.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349472079276511233
Date: 2021-01-13 21:43:10 GMT
Replying to: @ISilico (Tweet ID: 1349347399387516931)
Body: @ISilico @zackvoell @SBF_Alameda @cmsholdings People called me that in middle school I think.
Also what?
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349471932580728833
Date: 2021-01-13 21:42:35 GMT
Replying to: @lylepratt (Tweet ID: 1349395876893102083)
Body: @lylepratt @SantiagoAuFund @cmsholdings My wire activity has been, perhaps unsurprisingly, similar to SBF's.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349277034816499713
Date: 2021-01-13 08:48:08 GMT
Replying to: @RiskIndemnity (Tweet ID: 1349271773603385346)
Body: @RiskIndemnity What "theory" did I propose?
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349235787372482561
Date: 2021-01-13 06:04:13 GMT
Replying to: @lordbaneIV (Tweet ID: 1349235337512497152)
Body: @Crypto___bane @V__1337 @rsalame7926 I'm just looking at the average prices implied across all markets (Alameda has all this) and it's a pretty robustly different story, be careful in general not to overfit to a) single snapshots b) single markets.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349234889690763264
Date: 2021-01-13 06:00:39 GMT
Replying to: @lordbaneIV (Tweet ID: 1349234699311448065)
Body: @Crypto___bane @V__1337 @rsalame7926 I'm not sure what to tell you, this is not correct :D
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349234385489285122
Date: 2021-01-13 05:58:39 GMT
Replying to: @lordbaneIV (Tweet ID: 1349233987265441792)
Body: @Crypto___bane @V__1337 @rsalame7926 The BTC/USDT markets are CONSISTENTLY way lower than the BTC/USD markets.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349233831170113537
Date: 2021-01-13 05:56:27 GMT
Replying to: @V__1337 (Tweet ID: 1346403829315751941)
Body: @V__1337 @rsalame7926 @SantiagoAuFund Yes?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349232641208315904
Date: 2021-01-13 05:51:43 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1349214137566588929)
Body: @cmsholdings IDK man sometimes a cloud does you wrong
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349220151615385600
Date: 2021-01-13 05:02:06 GMT
Replying to: @cryptodrew1 (Tweet ID: 1349219492195401729)
Body: @cryptodrew1 @KyleSGibson If death meant no more notifications from this thread my obituary would read like a wedding album.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349219319654174721
Date: 2021-01-13 04:58:47 GMT
Replying to: @cryptodrew1 (Tweet ID: 1349217961979109376)
Body: @cryptodrew1 @KyleSGibson The guy who illustrates obits for the NYT made this!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349212296141160450
Date: 2021-01-13 04:30:53 GMT
Replying to: @peasantwizard (Tweet ID: 1349210361652629505)
Body: @peasantwizard @FuckUSDT @VincentTjeng I was here for that! Shared the skepticism before working with them and creating / redeeming a ton.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349208028319424514
Date: 2021-01-13 04:13:55 GMT
Replying to: @peasantwizard (Tweet ID: 1349207223004762112)
Body: @peasantwizard @FuckUSDT @VincentTjeng https://t.co/KtQ9PTchQe
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349206579418066946
Date: 2021-01-13 04:08:10 GMT
Replying to: @KyleSGibson (Tweet ID: 1349205647578038272)
Body: @KyleSGibson Aw, mean.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349206122075365379
Date: 2021-01-13 04:06:21 GMT
Replying to: @peasantwizard (Tweet ID: 1349205925266038785)
Body: @peasantwizard @FuckUSDT @VincentTjeng We create all the time.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349205518217199617
Date: 2021-01-13 04:03:57 GMT
Replying to: @KyleSGibson (Tweet ID: 1349205297974411265)
Body: @KyleSGibson We also trade hundreds of other products! We depend on USDT to the same extent we depend on DOGE.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349204707948986368
Date: 2021-01-13 04:00:44 GMT
Replying to: @KyleSGibson (Tweet ID: 1349204362200047616)
Body: @KyleSGibson Hm I am confused about the specific claim, I can assure you Alameda’s business does not “depend” on USDT to any extent, and imagine the same is true of FTX’s but again can’t really say.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349203939632185346
Date: 2021-01-13 03:57:40 GMT
Replying to: @KyleSGibson (Tweet ID: 1349203340866019330)
Body: @KyleSGibson Wait what’s the conflict of interest?
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349202080058118145
Date: 2021-01-13 03:50:17 GMT
Replying to: @gauravdahake (Tweet ID: 1349200343553302530)
Body: @gauravdahake @dkcrypto13 @FOMO_No_Mo @crasl7 Few reasons:
- creation / redemption isn't literally instant
- e.g. Alameda can only create so much at a time due to capital and wire limits, if we'd need more to close the whole thing we'd have to wait
- if it gets REALLY out of line, it's maximizing for us to go slower
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349201584643657730
Date: 2021-01-13 03:48:19 GMT
Replying to: @KyleSGibson (Tweet ID: 1349200163148062723)
Body: @KyleSGibson Agreed!
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349167718696579073
Date: 2021-01-13 01:33:45 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1349167084891230208)
Body: @cmsholdings Ooh proposal: USDT fork into USDT and USDT-UNBACKED where all of the USD is backing the original.
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349109166514733056
Date: 2021-01-12 21:41:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1349107901260943361)
Body: @marketcapone Note that customers are PAYING a premium to HOLD USDT -- we hold it for a very short period of time.
The premium exists because of temporary supply/demand imbalance, arising because creation/redemption is a) not free b) operationally not instant.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349107901260943361
Date: 2021-01-12 21:36:03 GMT
Replying to: @marketcapone (Tweet ID: 1349100657286909953)
Body: @marketcapone It's not risk premium :P
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349107706905329666
Date: 2021-01-12 21:35:17 GMT
Replying to: @Seanismacro (Tweet ID: 1349099196742213632)
Body: @Seanismacro @SantiagoAuFund Both are backed 1:1. USDC creation is 1) free 2) more accessible because e.g. anyone with a Coinbase account can do it.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349098524890206208
Date: 2021-01-12 20:58:48 GMT
Replying to: @IamNomad (Tweet ID: 1349098349614530561)
Body: @IamNomad @SBF_Alameda And we're showing no signs of stopping.
Stats: 18 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349098411467829249
Date: 2021-01-12 20:58:20 GMT
Replying to: @supermariokartD (Tweet ID: 1349097783446228998)
Body: @supermariokart https://t.co/HS8b07Sd4B
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349098042549362688
Date: 2021-01-12 20:56:53 GMT
Replying to: @buyemoney (Tweet ID: 1348969883082620928)
Body: @buyemoney I don't really have a horse in that race and am not against a potential audit!
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349097606215921664
Date: 2021-01-12 20:55:09 GMT
Replying to: @Seanismacro (Tweet ID: 1349096855263563777)
Body: @Seanismacro @SantiagoAuFund It's more volatile because *fewer* firms can do it -- it has C/R fees so you have to be good at pricing it to be confident about doing it in size, and you need more specific banking setups.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1349095867463069696
Date: 2021-01-12 20:48:14 GMT
Replying to: @Seanismacro (Tweet ID: 1349045091852189701)
Body: @Seanismacro @SantiagoAuFund Wait didn't I say the exact opposite of that?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348954219307429888
Date: 2021-01-12 11:25:22 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1348739515561611265)
Body: @SBF_Alameda Which numbers are we talking
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348928020212449285
Date: 2021-01-12 09:41:16 GMT
Replying to: @V__1337 (Tweet ID: 1348916383036354561)
Quoted tweet: @rsalame7926: @SantiagoAuFund I've been minting/redeeming USDT on an institutional scale for over 3 years with multiple desks! While admittedly I've done far more mints than redemptions, below you'll find all USDT redeemed in my current role. Note the process has always been smooth. https://t.co/OSzk67175C
Body: @V__1337 Do you mean like @rsalame7926 did here? https://t.co/fLMJDrWSnz
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348903814485532672
Date: 2021-01-12 08:05:05 GMT
Replying to: @inthepurple2 (Tweet ID: 1348901722329149442)
Body: @inthepurple2 @DesoGames What?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348899498710290433
Date: 2021-01-12 07:47:56 GMT
Replying to: @VincentTjeng (Tweet ID: 1348897846133620736)
Body: @VincentTjeng @FuckUSDT Given the number of times we have done this, I think if one of our creations disappeared we'd have net won.
Also, the chances are just so low if you trace through the incentives of the people involved.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348885211669356544
Date: 2021-01-12 06:51:10 GMT
Replying to: @RydesaurusRex (Tweet ID: 1348877094252466178)
Body: @RydesaurusRex You tell them you’re gonna send USDT, you send it, they send you dollars.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348876309120733186
Date: 2021-01-12 06:15:47 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoBlt (Tweet ID: 1348875105670197248)
Body: @CryptoBlt Depends on time of day but usually blockchain speed plus like, time for a person to respond to a message.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348876159874830340
Date: 2021-01-12 06:15:12 GMT
Replying to: @ccarter84 (Tweet ID: 1348873901678366720)
Body: @ccarter84 @CasPiancey @Bitfinexed Something to be said for trusting that someone who’s reasonable’s motivations are reasonable.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348875816537477121
Date: 2021-01-12 06:13:50 GMT
Replying to: @PenguinsTrading (Tweet ID: 1348826443657211904)
Body: @FuckUSDT What’s this mean exactly?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348850001191964672
Date: 2021-01-12 04:31:15 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1348849625290035202)
Body: @rsalame7926 @cmsholdings Nah, you've been going 27 years.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348781079906324483
Date: 2021-01-11 23:57:23 GMT
Replying to: @mycryptoalias (Tweet ID: 1348780346679169024)
Body: @mycryptoalias C/R isn't free is I think the logic, but I don't work for FTX.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348775240717934594
Date: 2021-01-11 23:34:11 GMT
Replying to: @3L3C70 (Tweet ID: 1348774630845157376)
Body: @3L3C70 He really doesn't have the upper body for it!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348773063047794689
Date: 2021-01-11 23:25:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1348773049147957250)
Body: The rest of the world is missing out on something for being so distrustful of USDT, I think -- but if no one else wants to collect this premium consistently, I guess we'll have to suck it up. https://t.co/7wKSzKeHoo
Stats: 77 likes, 0 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348773049147957250
Date: 2021-01-11 23:25:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1348773047692496896)
Body: Having done so much of this and worked so closely with their team is why we trust USDT much more than the rest of crypto twitter seems to at times :P Having done big creations when USDT > 1 and big redemptions when it's < 1 will do that -- and that's been a powerful tool.
Stats: 69 likes, 8 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348773047692496896
Date: 2021-01-11 23:25:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1348773046258028544)
Body: And, as we've been noting recently on Twitter, we do these! A lot! And this is win-win -- obviously we're making money to it because we can, e.g., be selling above where we create, but we're also bringing the price in line so that when aggro buyers come in, it sticks close to $1.
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348773046258028544
Date: 2021-01-11 23:25:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1348773044873949185)
Body: That's, for instance, a big part of the reason the price came back in line while I was writing this tweet :P when it diverges from $1 we can pretty safely put on big bets because, well, we *do* have the necessary setup to do large creations and redemptions when we want to.
Stats: 38 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348773044873949185
Date: 2021-01-11 23:25:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1348773043477176320)
Body: And when USDT gets above $1? A sophisticated firm like Alameda with great setups on all the exchanges and bots to execute more than one leg at a time is gonna want to sell! And we do -- a LOT.
Stats: 36 likes, 1 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348773043477176320
Date: 2021-01-11 23:25:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1348773041791135744)
Body: Other stablecoins like USDC don't have anywhere near as volatile premia -- that's because the creation/redemption process is more involved for USDT, and fewer firms can actually do it. This is why, as I noted above, many who want it are going to markets and not creating.
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348773041791135744
Date: 2021-01-11 23:25:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1348773032471326721)
Body: Man, USDT fell back to $1 (in the BTC/USDT markets) as I was typing those previous tweets :P It really does trade a ton, and not especially efficiently on a second-to-second timescale. https://t.co/8nzzPbylk8
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348773032471326721
Date: 2021-01-11 23:25:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1348773031095619585)
Body: (They're trying to get it for the reasons noted in the article, as well as maybe some other idiosyncratic ones pending market conditions -- distrust in local currency/banks, collateral, access to the super liquid USDT markets chief among them.)
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348773031095619585
Date: 2021-01-11 23:25:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1348773029661196290)
Body: And note, *these* are the best markets to use to determine where USDT is trading -- the combo of BTC/USDT and BTC/USD markets, e.g., are WAY more liquid than any exchange's USDT/USD market, so the prices from these (even though it's a two-leg trade) matter way more.
Stats: 48 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348773029661196290
Date: 2021-01-11 23:25:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1348773027639562241)
Body: The premium with which USDT trades to $1 is pretty volatile as a result -- as I type this, the average BTC/USDT market (as compared to BTC/USD) is trading about 15bp lower, implying USDT = $1.0015 or so. And that's all from people AGGRESSIVELY selling BTC vs. USDT to get USDT.
Stats: 44 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348773027639562241
Date: 2021-01-11 23:25:23 GMT
Quoted tweet: @CoinDesk: Tether minted a record 2 billion USDT last week.
Report by @zackvoell
https://t.co/oiXBr5g7vI
Body: BTW, to connect some dots here -- a lot of the people seeking access to a coin like USDT *aren't* doing so via creation. They're often doing so via just sorta buying it in the markets -- and they're buying a LOT, and REALLY aggressively. https://t.co/pKRj3AMJ9D
Stats: 245 likes, 43 retweets, 21 quote tweets, 17 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348570553938890752
Date: 2021-01-11 10:00:49 GMT
Replying to: @genesisblockhk (Tweet ID: 1348569405198778368)
Body: @genesisblockhk @SBF_Alameda Oh you were among the examples!
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348408830904860672
Date: 2021-01-10 23:18:12 GMT
Replying to: @blue__mount (Tweet ID: 1348392549254369280)
Body: @blue__mango @rsalame7926 I do but I need to wait to see what Ryan is wearing when he comes in this morning to be sure.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348408657566814208
Date: 2021-01-10 23:17:30 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1348404805824180224)
Body: @jackshaftoes @cansar Thread about the value of writing threads vs shitposting incoming
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348384651706945536
Date: 2021-01-10 21:42:07 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1348384597583691777)
Body: I promise I'll become less of a purely shitposting account soon.
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348384597583691777
Date: 2021-01-10 21:41:54 GMT
Body: Haven't seen a V this deep since @rsalame7926 updated his wardrobe away from t shirts. https://t.co/eYQKmUVYFe
Stats: 67 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348384562557067265
Date: 2021-01-10 21:41:46 GMT
Replying to: @bearhead (Tweet ID: 1348383924737609729)
Body: @bearhead I'm actually super anti-beanbag, much more about the bed in the side room or the couch.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348383087919448064
Date: 2021-01-10 21:35:54 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: Putting things in perspective https://t.co/nusuMLhVwi
Body: Is this a comment on how it's alright for me to go home because none of this matters https://t.co/wWZ4KePIOY
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348256659286544384
Date: 2021-01-10 13:13:31 GMT
Replying to: @mattysino (Tweet ID: 1348226099025612800)
Body: @mattysino @cmsholdings why did i tell people about this
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348029038695092225
Date: 2021-01-09 22:09:02 GMT
Replying to: @ChenWainuo (Tweet ID: 1348020617900036097)
Body: @ChenWainuo @Nishad__Singh https://t.co/v5VM44FF7S
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348013912537460736
Date: 2021-01-09 21:08:56 GMT
Replying to: @slam__punk (Tweet ID: 1348011663090450432)
Body: @bullymanzano @Nishad__Singh They actually didn't even use any of them because they were "all the wrong kind"
This is fair though
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1348009345578012675
Date: 2021-01-09 20:50:47 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1347999785664524289)
Body: @cmsholdings @VentureCoinist @PhantomMedalli1 shit does that mean you'll still be here in feb
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347998087889833985
Date: 2021-01-09 20:06:03 GMT
Replying to: @Mister_Ch0c (Tweet ID: 1347984687487213570)
Body: @eatmych0c Love money yeah
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347974649166979072
Date: 2021-01-09 18:32:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1347974492304207872)
Body: @kevinsekniqi @cmsholdings (Or lift my TRUMPFEB offers)
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347974492304207872
Date: 2021-01-09 18:32:17 GMT
Replying to: @kevinsekniqi (Tweet ID: 1347974024530452488)
Body: @kevinsekniqi @cmsholdings Actual footage of me as a mean old man: https://t.co/R0fsckl1zj
(JIC people didn't see before, please don't send them $, this isn't me, if you want me to have your money please DM me directly.)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347973937179738112
Date: 2021-01-09 18:30:05 GMT
Replying to: @IamNomad (Tweet ID: 1347973819189886978)
Body: @IamNomad @cmsholdings Yes.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347973828870246401
Date: 2021-01-09 18:29:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1347973017771540481)
Body: @cmsholdings Also did you guys know that @cmsholdings literally does just send me 0s and 1s and like "beep beep boop" because I'm a "robot," they do this like every day.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347973670451376130
Date: 2021-01-09 18:29:01 GMT
Replying to: @kevinsekniqi (Tweet ID: 1347973284349018113)
Body: @kevinsekniqi @cmsholdings Never liked this show or you!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347973582018678785
Date: 2021-01-09 18:28:40 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoCred (Tweet ID: 1347973327831314434)
Body: @CryptoCred @cmsholdings Ooh I should buy some sort of heavy-duty water gun to just attack people with
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347973017771540481
Date: 2021-01-09 18:26:26 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1347972512823578625)
Body: @cmsholdings 01100001 01101110 01100100 00100000 01101001 00100111 01100100 00100000 01110011 01100001 01111001 00100000 01101001 01110100 00100000 01100001 01100111 01100001 01101001 01101110
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347970214818824198
Date: 2021-01-09 18:15:17 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: @coinmamba I'll buy as much SOL has you have, right now, at $3.
Sell me all you want.
Then go fuck off.
Body: Did you know Sam once gave me the feedback that I'm not kind enough to OTC counterparties? https://t.co/NGv0ivAqyP
Stats: 292 likes, 6 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347969613556903936
Date: 2021-01-09 18:12:54 GMT
Replying to: @coinmamba (Tweet ID: 1347956177951457280)
Body: @coinmamba @SBF_Alameda Isn't that literally what an exchange is
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347688526276489219
Date: 2021-01-08 23:35:58 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1347641361588248576)
Body: @cmsholdings I'm so happy that the customers were protected.
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347541813775585281
Date: 2021-01-08 13:52:59 GMT
Replying to: @Travis_Kling (Tweet ID: 1347397099227238400)
Body: @Travis_Kling @Pladizow For holiday poem parodies about XRP I'd go with @AlamedaTrabucco
Stats: 8 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347526971022999553
Date: 2021-01-08 12:54:00 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1347519837329903617)
Body: @cmsholdings https://t.co/MaTedqnWtl
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347290901580713987
Date: 2021-01-07 21:15:57 GMT
Replying to: @BtcBombo (Tweet ID: 1347277592546590720)
Body: @BtcBombo lol
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347265989864394752
Date: 2021-01-07 19:36:57 GMT
Body: Is this BTC's way of protesting, did no one tell it that it's over
Stats: 27 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347258725459873793
Date: 2021-01-07 19:08:05 GMT
Replying to: @Congrav1ty (Tweet ID: 1347256511068839936)
Body: @Congrav1ty @gidonbrack Alameda (I'm sure others are also selling, I am just referring to the sales Alameda is doing via FTX).
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347238222909173760
Date: 2021-01-07 17:46:37 GMT
Replying to: @shloklll (Tweet ID: 1347232254431551488)
Body: @gidonbrack I also do not live in the US!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347222077397323782
Date: 2021-01-07 16:42:28 GMT
Replying to: @BtcBombo (Tweet ID: 1347221559245606914)
Body: @BtcBombo I must repeat yet again I do not work for FTX and have nothing to do with the settlement of this contract!
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347220409058435073
Date: 2021-01-07 16:35:50 GMT
Replying to: @shloklll (Tweet ID: 1347218153827409921)
Body: @gidonbrack I don't work for FTX!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347192074357993473
Date: 2021-01-07 14:43:14 GMT
Replying to: @GeorgeTitor33 (Tweet ID: 1347187222722662403)
Body: @georgetheunrekt @jawnbear Shit I forgot about the power of positive thought again
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347167986864439298
Date: 2021-01-07 13:07:31 GMT
Replying to: @anonmenon111 (Tweet ID: 1347167595221442560)
Body: @vindimenon @Fiskantes https://t.co/dKM3jOjPJu
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347166378508251139
Date: 2021-01-07 13:01:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1347166103647133696)
Body: @Snoopysnooper2 On election day there were times when my model for Trump was below the market -- so I bought! Always goes both ways, and I'm a better trader because I can look past my personal biases about the contracts I'm trading.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347166103647133696
Date: 2021-01-07 13:00:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1347165870917709826)
Body: @Snoopysnooper2 For instance, when I sell BTC because I think it's gonna go down short-term ... doesn't make me anti-crypto. Makes me pro-money.
Stats: 1 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347165870917709826
Date: 2021-01-07 12:59:07 GMT
Replying to: @Snoopysnooper2 (Tweet ID: 1347165016034840577)
Body: @Snoopysnooper2 I do not work for FTX and never have!
Also, I wouldn't call it taunting political opponents -- just because I viewed Trump as having very close to 0 change of remaining president after the election, that doesn't exactly mean I'm anti-Trump.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347158631725158400
Date: 2021-01-07 12:30:21 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoCronkite (Tweet ID: 1347158350409162753)
Body: @CryptoCronkite I'm not the exchange https://t.co/PpjeSNEn0j
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347155759797129220
Date: 2021-01-07 12:18:56 GMT
Replying to: @DarkCryptoLord (Tweet ID: 1347155469555519498)
Body: @DarkCryptoLord @SBF_Alameda @FTX_Official might be able to answer, I'm not sure!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347155420226338818
Date: 2021-01-07 12:17:35 GMT
Replying to: @QuantPunter (Tweet ID: 1347146595733622785)
Body: @QuantPunter Honestly this is why I quit playing live poker.
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347150280383631360
Date: 2021-01-07 11:57:10 GMT
Replying to: @mainline_uwu (Tweet ID: 1347149004094599170)
Body: @lil_cozy_boy Please reach out if you'd like to buy in size OTC!
Stats: 50 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347150178264879106
Date: 2021-01-07 11:56:45 GMT
Replying to: @alt_degen (Tweet ID: 1347148334713212928)
Body: @alt_degen Not my call!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1347147967711600646
Date: 2021-01-07 11:47:58 GMT
Replying to: @TheSkyhopper (Tweet ID: 1347147705978535939)
Body: @TheSkyhopper Oh yeah this would make sense, OI is going up thp :P
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346944967307010048
Date: 2021-01-06 22:21:19 GMT
Replying to: @JWestJest (Tweet ID: 1346936862775111682)
Body: @JWestJest @SBF_Alameda @zackvoell Land dragons
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346944771248386051
Date: 2021-01-06 22:20:33 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1346942936185856000)
Body: @cmsholdings I'm way too into all these pics, it's like if congress staged a production of "The Lion King"
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346935152706867200
Date: 2021-01-06 21:42:19 GMT
Body: I think America should split into two countries but it should be along "is willing to use cash to pay for literally anything" lines.
Stats: 27 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346791736148860934
Date: 2021-01-06 12:12:26 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: @mattysino going deep into Saltines:
1) great post-workout snack
2) great pre-workout snack
3) honestly it's bread and salt, it's just great
purchasing 50 boxes, a $200 seed round
Alameda following on for 10 boxes + an option on 5 more next year https://t.co/RNKNU9X1vq
Body: SELL
Saltines suck https://t.co/azsnI8qDJU
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346789167313735681
Date: 2021-01-06 12:02:14 GMT
Replying to: @Kasperbit (Tweet ID: 1346783515971637249)
Body: @Kasperbit wait is there a vote here
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346605343351050240
Date: 2021-01-05 23:51:47 GMT
Replying to: @saah1lk (Tweet ID: 1346605048097341440)
Body: @saah1lk @cmsholdings @FTX_Official I'm like an alien trying to fit in on Earth, there's always something a bit off.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346604634803118081
Date: 2021-01-05 23:48:58 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1346603846714478592)
Body: @cmsholdings @FTX_Official WHEN DEMSENATE_FEB
Stats: 18 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346583638180155392
Date: 2021-01-05 22:25:32 GMT
Replying to: @schandola7 (Tweet ID: 1346567349344735232)
Body: @thebloodtalon7 @SBF_Alameda @FTX_Official lol I more meant that if people were trading it I could justify trying to model it well
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346566741388713984
Date: 2021-01-05 21:18:23 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1346559552330731523)
Body: @SBF_Alameda I wish people cared more about this so I could justify caring about it more.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346167816915881984
Date: 2021-01-04 18:53:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1346167612296708096)
Body: @tztokchad @ISilico (Didn’t see anything immediately so looked it up and there’s no good way to do this in positive integers but also solutions with 80 digits do exist :P)
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346167612296708096
Date: 2021-01-04 18:52:24 GMT
Replying to: @tztokchad (Tweet ID: 1346152340592742400)
Body: @tztokchad @ISilico “Need” seems like a strong word.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346166548440911873
Date: 2021-01-04 18:48:10 GMT
Body: @TheSerumist RENT is timeless.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346136107553996801
Date: 2021-01-04 16:47:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1346120154124587009)
Body: For those wondering, @SBF_Alameda turned to everyone and asked us all "how often we are refreshing Slack." I replied that I'm just shitposting on Twitter instead and he said that was his backup plan.
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346135423379066880
Date: 2021-01-04 16:44:29 GMT
Replying to: @vishalkgupta (Tweet ID: 1346134937058107402)
Body: @vishalkgupta @tackettzane @rsalame7926 @SantiagoAuFund Our company is SO dysfunctional.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346134836759543808
Date: 2021-01-04 16:42:09 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1346131106005966852)
Body: @cmsholdings Our OTC desk will trade contracts on how long this lasts.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346127930619936770
Date: 2021-01-04 16:14:43 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1346123329879437312)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @tackettzane @rsalame7926 @SantiagoAuFund @Handi50419506 will be compensated and PLEASE don't tell her we tried to cut her out.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346121779429822467
Date: 2021-01-04 15:50:16 GMT
Replying to: @NaiveKrypto (Tweet ID: 1346120436073992193)
Body: @NaiveKrypto @SBF_Alameda is still working on using Solana to fix the issue where cold air blows on him all day.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346120154124587009
Date: 2021-01-04 15:43:49 GMT
Body: Alameda just totally shuts down without Slack, my coping mechanism is to keep sending messages about funding rates and what our ETH delta should be into the abyss.
Stats: 51 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346106752803119105
Date: 2021-01-04 14:50:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1346106599224459269)
Body: @cmsholdings am I alright
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346106599224459269
Date: 2021-01-04 14:49:57 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1346097261152006146)
Body: @cmsholdings crazy how DOT is in a dot
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346105943411412993
Date: 2021-01-04 14:47:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1346099860362067969)
Body: I've been informed that the Venn diagram of RENT fans and my followers is not very densely populated.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346101413110140930
Date: 2021-01-04 14:29:20 GMT
Replying to: @tackettzane (Tweet ID: 1346099996588912645)
Body: @tackettzane @rsalame7926 @SantiagoAuFund His coattails are probably filthy.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346099860362067969
Date: 2021-01-04 14:23:10 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1346099080829669377)
Body: https://t.co/xvfn5ctrpl
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346099427166007296
Date: 2021-01-04 14:21:27 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1346098486995869699)
Body: @rsalame7926 @SantiagoAuFund @SantiagoAuFund please compensate me for @rsalame7926's time and effort!
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346099080829669377
Date: 2021-01-04 14:20:04 GMT
Quoted tweet: @rsalame7926: @SantiagoAuFund I've been minting/redeeming USDT on an institutional scale for over 3 years with multiple desks! While admittedly I've done far more mints than redemptions, below you'll find all USDT redeemed in my current role. Note the process has always been smooth. https://t.co/OSzk67175C
Body: The opposite of war isn't peace -- it's creation. https://t.co/fLMJDrWSnz
Stats: 12 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346061697761464321
Date: 2021-01-04 11:51:32 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoSaveMe (Tweet ID: 1346061508900515841)
Body: @CryptoSaveMe @AWice I certainly *have* a detailed opinion about it :P OTOH I'm falling asleep at my desk.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346060804366376961
Date: 2021-01-04 11:47:59 GMT
Replying to: @enchiridion47 (Tweet ID: 1346060176688779265)
Body: @enchiridion47 @AWice Is that a global thing or are we just talking exchange website buttons
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346060711412154369
Date: 2021-01-04 11:47:36 GMT
Replying to: @web3tokenomics (Tweet ID: 1346060100092514306)
Body: @hmazawi @AWice Good intel, thank you.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346059882768650240
Date: 2021-01-04 11:44:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1346059763621056512)
Body: @AWice "APE SZN" for instance definitely seemed directional to me.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1346059763621056512
Date: 2021-01-04 11:43:50 GMT
Replying to: @AWice (Tweet ID: 1346040927639388163)
Body: @AWice Wait OK is this still aping? I'm just trying to understand the terminology, I thought aping was directional but maybe not.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345825537147604994
Date: 2021-01-03 20:13:06 GMT
Replying to: @cryptoquanto (Tweet ID: 1345823545092431873)
Body: @cryptoquanto @jedimarkus77 @fakegingerbitch Yep; sometimes it's a literal arb insofar as like, maybe I can sell on Coinbase and buy on Binance at the same time 10bp apart. Other times it's just a good spread, like selling spot and buying some future where I expect the premium difference to change in the right direction.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345742014298537985
Date: 2021-01-03 14:41:13 GMT
Replying to: @schandola7 (Tweet ID: 1345741776452157442)
Body: @thebloodtalon7 I think I'll cry too but for a different reason.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345741807791919105
Date: 2021-01-03 14:40:24 GMT
Replying to: @samalex97 (Tweet ID: 1345741641748013056)
Body: @samalex97 It stands for SMALL BRAINED FOLLOWER
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345740928149983234
Date: 2021-01-03 14:36:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345728629569855488)
Body: Except, of course. for noted straight line up and to the right FTT https://t.co/KFjyfKeSPz
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345729199294672898
Date: 2021-01-03 13:50:18 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1345722317633060869)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @cmsholdings @hasufl He's pretty spooky at it IMO, watching him navigate Excel is a trip.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345728629569855488
Date: 2021-01-03 13:48:02 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Alright, the apes have it! Let's discuss the mythical "alt season" which people seem to get obsessed about every time BTC moves by itself.
I call it "mythical" BTW not because it's never happened -- but because, as I see it, there's no *real* reason to expect it to happen now. https://t.co/QG2Hu1Rtwl https://t.co/XQwPKEoI0V
Body: The best-performing alts today seem ... pretty in line with this so far :P https://t.co/bMqF73W7dc https://t.co/EK2Sw7lK7d
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345531165206138880
Date: 2021-01-03 00:43:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345531163725631489)
Body: So I actually kinda think this is just another example of a U.S.-friendly alt rallying, except a) it has a TON of liquidations because of high leverage in places like Binance and b) lol it's DOGE of course it's gonna double if it goes up at all. Weird!
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345531163725631489
Date: 2021-01-03 00:43:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345531161942974465)
Body: Well, yes and no. Yes, it's obviously like, the prototypical dumb shitcoin. Or maybe it ... was? It's actually gained some U.S. credibility, being popular on Robinhood, and there's certainly a notable American who's a fan ;) @elonmusk
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345531161942974465
Date: 2021-01-03 00:43:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530597603569664)
Body: Also, I'll throw the DOGE a bone here: doesn't whatever the fuck DOGE did today mean any random alts should just be rallying? Isn't DOGE like, THE random alt? Surely if it's doubling everything oughta be. https://t.co/Gr4h0AVYxq
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530597603569664
Date: 2021-01-03 00:41:07 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530588053131266)
Body: It's been a pretty exhausting, wild ride lately, but one which has been super interesting and fulfilling -- and not a bad way to spend the holidays at all. https://t.co/IdssQCZIuS
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530588053131266
Date: 2021-01-03 00:41:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530586262192128)
Body: So, it seems like the most important thing moving forward is to watch out for signs this paradigm is over or not, and make the bets that that implies. Also, even if it's not over, maybe some coins are too impacted because of liquidations! That's something to watch, too.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530586262192128
Date: 2021-01-03 00:41:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530584538308610)
Body: ... the issue is with the *expectation* that BTC up -> alts up, which it's just not that simple anymore. Alts that are fundamentally "different" from BTC in important ways won't necessarily follow it, and U.S. regulatory opinions are ... now an important way.
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530584538308610
Date: 2021-01-03 00:41:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530582789308416)
Body: So my issue isn't with the idea that *specific* coins might go up -- and anything can of course happen! With so much altcoin leverage small moves can become big ones, and maybe the market will decide XRP is over-impacted -- it could certainly be by now!
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530582789308416
Date: 2021-01-03 00:41:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530580587319297)
Body: And this is just what I expect -- if this paradigm keeps up, some coins will do well -- the ones the U.S. (or maybe another jurisdiction as things evolve) likes, and others will flounder. And if it doesn't ... why would we expect ANY specific net buying?
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530580587319297
Date: 2021-01-03 00:41:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530576741126144)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: 'Twas the night before Christmas, and try though they may
Not a token was mooning, not even AAVE
Market buys getting sent by the apes without care
In hopes that new all-time highs soon would be there https://t.co/tFcHfnKIS6
Body: In the other corner we have noted ugly step-sister XRP. Not much has changed since my incredible Christmas Eve poem, as it's kept under-performing -- it kinda hilariously barely even moved today. Same for some others with bad press like ZEC.
https://t.co/DjXcMSCn6Z https://t.co/LVj9tro1kp
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530576741126144
Date: 2021-01-03 00:41:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530574547472384)
Body: Same with other coins which the U.S. seems alright with -- coins like LTC, BCH, and some other bigger ones. They've done fine in this paradigm, and *if the paradigm( keeps up I expect them to continue.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530574547472384
Date: 2021-01-03 00:41:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530570349006849)
Body: ETH seems a good candidate -- it's got CME futures coming up, it's in a few other U.S. funds, and it's seen as sort of similar to BTC in important ways. And it's done OK (lol, compared to BTC) during the past week or so, as well as today, reaching its own (local) high. https://t.co/HEY4MVaO97
Stats: 40 likes, 6 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530570349006849
Date: 2021-01-03 00:41:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530568730005507)
Body: OK, cool, altcoins! In my view, because this market narrative is so strongly about the U.S. institutions and what they're buying ... if any altcoins are gonna go up *if that narrative keeps up*, it should be the ones which the U.S. is "alright" with. Which are those?
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530568730005507
Date: 2021-01-03 00:41:00 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530567182360576)
Body: So! does that mean the U.S. customers have "called the top"? Well, some, but there are many players here. It does seem to signify a continued importance for the U.S. institutions, though -- and it'll be important to watch to see how that plays out.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530567182360576
Date: 2021-01-03 00:41:00 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530565047377920)
Body: But it signals that, yet again, the spot markets actually *were* important here. This time for some reversion -- it demonstrates that the "organic" buyers thought it was too high! Just as you might expect for a market move dominated by organic AND inorganic buying.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530565047377920
Date: 2021-01-03 00:41:00 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530563071856640)
Body: Again, some liquidations; but a lot of the OI change was just a real seller, because the premium to spot got HIGH! Spot was the bigger factor here, and a lot of selling was taking place on those markets, with less leverage. Which made selling this perp ... appealing to Alameda ;)
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530563071856640
Date: 2021-01-03 00:40:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530558969909248)
Body: But the drawdown was actually mostly on spot exchanges, as it turns out. And during the BIG rally? Some liquidations, yes, but check out this chart of the BitMEX BTC perp premium (to spot) and OI during the period when BTC fell 10%: https://t.co/O5FRx4CO3R
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530558969909248
Date: 2021-01-03 00:40:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530554578399233)
Body: Alright, next ... BTC immediately crashed 10% WTF? This one was kiiinda because of derivatives and liquidations again -- a TON of OI was aggressively opened during this period, perp funding was paying 50bp/day to shorts are various points! And a small drawdown triggered more. https://t.co/Xj9aw5bNJe
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530554578399233
Date: 2021-01-03 00:40:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530552628039680)
Body: (No need to go into that, I guess -- a TON of positions on all the derivatives platforms got liquidated during this rally into holiday/ATH low liquidity, which drove it up a good deal more than the organic buyers did -- but the spot buyers did matter! As we'll see.)
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530552628039680
Date: 2021-01-03 00:40:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530550946185219)
Body: But 30k? Yeah, some sellers, for sure -- but nothing near as "organized" and nothing with as much history as the one-time ATH. So, the liquidations were enough to blow right on through! And, you guessed it, more liquidations kept driving the prices up and up.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530550946185219
Date: 2021-01-03 00:40:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530548848979969)
Body: My take: there was no "narrative" around breaking 30k. For 20k, it was the previous ATH which BTC failed to break and then crashed HARD. Lots of people wanted it above 20k ... but many others really thought it was a great sale. Which we saw, like, 40 times!
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530548848979969
Date: 2021-01-03 00:40:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530544218521600)
Body: So, those two effects -- one organic, one inorganic -- drove BTC up to close to 30k. Which brings us to today! What allowed BTC to get through 30k so fast when it took like 40 tries for it to break 20k? https://t.co/DducWS0jjq
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530544218521600
Date: 2021-01-03 00:40:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530529207218179)
Body: But that organic buying has been into "holiday liquidity" -- with some of the market gone, there are fewer offers to trade against. And that means liquidations have a way higher impact! Which has driven a lot of it. New ATHs also tend to have lower liquidity, too (no old orders). https://t.co/jRLQzBWlcv
Stats: 10 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530529207218179
Date: 2021-01-03 00:40:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530526719905794)
Body: (Speaking of Coinbase -- I've seen a lot of chatter about people withdrawing BTC from exchanges like it, indicating HODLing. And ... maybe, but mayne not. Maybe they're gonna sell soon, or even collateralize more buys with it! We don't know yet.)
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530526719905794
Date: 2021-01-03 00:40:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530521686720512)
Body: What's driven it lately? Eh, kinda same thing -- more U.S. traditional funds adding BTC to balance sheet, Grayscale/Bitwise AUMs rising steadily, and exchanges like Coinbase are steadily increasing their daily volume (and valuations :P). https://t.co/7Fv79BdjIt
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530521686720512
Date: 2021-01-03 00:40:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530516745773056)
Body: The reasons I think this is not guaranteed start with BTC, so let's take a look at what's happened with BTC lately. And that is quite a lot! In the past week or so, BTC has continued its mega-rally that started around Thanksgiving with all the news of U.S. institutional buy-in. https://t.co/SfDfo9nBCh
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530516745773056
Date: 2021-01-03 00:40:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345530514191441920)
Body: Alright, that started a little inflammatory, so let me clarify. When I hear people talk about "alt season," it tends to mean like, a period when alts rally a ton, especially vs. BTC, and it doesn't really matter what a coin is -- they all just go up.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345530514191441920
Date: 2021-01-03 00:40:47 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Alright so I've honestly just been too tired all the time lately to write up any of my usual threads, but I feel morally obligated to do one today. What should the topic be?
Body: Alright, the apes have it! Let's discuss the mythical "alt season" which people seem to get obsessed about every time BTC moves by itself.
I call it "mythical" BTW not because it's never happened -- but because, as I see it, there's no *real* reason to expect it to happen now. https://t.co/QG2Hu1Rtwl https://t.co/XQwPKEoI0V
Stats: 80 likes, 17 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345479720951894016
Date: 2021-01-02 21:18:57 GMT
Replying to: @thebenp (Tweet ID: 1345471928035729409)
Body: @thebenp @cmsholdings @ShadySlimFast @AdamScochran I really need to go to bed lol
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345471563265544193
Date: 2021-01-02 20:46:32 GMT
Replying to: @ddwateranimal (Tweet ID: 1345469278875758597)
Body: @TienDo217 I mean which of them do you think isn't just about that
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345469166388539392
Date: 2021-01-02 20:37:01 GMT
Replying to: @ShadySlimFast (Tweet ID: 1345467742770638849)
Body: @ShadySlimFast @cmsholdings @AdamScochran This is true BTW https://t.co/cbR41eAteY
Stats: 12 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345466777686274048
Date: 2021-01-02 20:27:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345466435649212416)
Body: @themazuma (I actually have close to no satisfying answer as for why it started going up, but liquidations / other momentum effects allowed it to continue. Also the motivated selling for some reason only happened on some exchanges which kept getting super cheap, others only had buyers?)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345466435649212416
Date: 2021-01-02 20:26:10 GMT
Replying to: @themazuma (Tweet ID: 1345464120842346499)
Body: @themazuma Number go up sir
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345458370027765760
Date: 2021-01-02 19:54:07 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345458241807912960)
Body: @AdamScochran @cmsholdings They send us very offensive strings of 0s and 1s over telegram.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345458241807912960
Date: 2021-01-02 19:53:36 GMT
Replying to: @adamscochran (Tweet ID: 1345454490317680640)
Body: @AdamScochran @cmsholdings loves fighting with robots.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345453611501772800
Date: 2021-01-02 19:35:12 GMT
Replying to: @F1yToSky (Tweet ID: 1345453061444145152)
Body: @F1yToSky BTC's been super momentum-driven lately for a few reasons -- if those underlying causes keep up probably so will momentum (which strictly speaking could go either way, but it's obviously mostly gone up).
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345452960403243009
Date: 2021-01-02 19:32:37 GMT
Replying to: @adamscochran (Tweet ID: 1345452222067453953)
Body: @AdamScochran More seriously, this is closer to the topic I will actually discuss for "WHEN ALT SZN" which is a name chosen to make sure it got picked.
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345452684594143232
Date: 2021-01-02 19:31:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345452604369686528)
Body: @AdamScochran (really tho the liquidations up have been pretty fun too :P)
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345451385249177601
Date: 2021-01-02 19:26:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1345451158291111936)
Body: @xenoflux Also I feel like anyone voting for the alt szn thing who expects me to say like "in a week, rest up" doesn't really follow my content :P
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345451158291111936
Date: 2021-01-02 19:25:28 GMT
Replying to: @xenoflux (Tweet ID: 1345450918280617984)
Body: @xenoflux Haha yeah honestly that one will get posted soon anyway, I have it mostly written just would add in an example from the past day.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1345450552092549121
Date: 2021-01-02 19:23:03 GMT
Body: Alright so I've honestly just been too tired all the time lately to write up any of my usual threads, but I feel morally obligated to do one today. What should the topic be?
Stats: 25 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1344489619002310657
Date: 2020-12-31 03:44:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1344489528044580865)
Body: @RafaelCosman @SBF_Alameda Which would, to be clear, be a life ruiner.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1344489528044580865
Date: 2020-12-31 03:44:17 GMT
Replying to: @RafaelCosman (Tweet ID: 1344448208047460353)
Body: @RafaelCosman @SBF_Alameda We’re so good for this, if we default I will post a video of myself trying to rap.
Stats: 16 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1344247595695181824
Date: 2020-12-30 11:42:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1344247499595284480)
Body: @iwearahoodie @rsalame7926 can confirm I love getting mad about that.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1344247499595284480
Date: 2020-12-30 11:42:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1344247378698674177)
Body: @iwearahoodie Sometimes I get nervous we aren't creating enough of it.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1344247378698674177
Date: 2020-12-30 11:42:04 GMT
Replying to: @iwearahoodie (Tweet ID: 1344245835790389248)
Body: @iwearahoodie Which people from Alameda have been nervous about USDT :P
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1344241475077373957
Date: 2020-12-30 11:18:37 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1344222025309515779)
Body: @rsalame7926 I thought this was you any day past 6:30pm.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1343875563434307585
Date: 2020-12-29 11:04:36 GMT
Replying to: @burglol (Tweet ID: 1343874817825538050)
Body: @Burglol @KasperLoock Is it supposed to represent the idea that if you cry enough you get whatever you want?
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1343874363519430656
Date: 2020-12-29 10:59:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1343874284913975296)
Body: @KasperLoock @SBF_Alameda what's your take on Felix
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1343874284913975296
Date: 2020-12-29 10:59:32 GMT
Replying to: @KasperLoock (Tweet ID: 1343873820491476992)
Body: @KasperLoock IDK I don't like its proportions, also what is it wearing.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1343873294605250561
Date: 2020-12-29 10:55:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1343873007563915266)
Body: @KasperLoock I also believe Felix is canonically gender-nonconforming, if I recall correctly.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1343873007563915266
Date: 2020-12-29 10:54:27 GMT
Replying to: @KasperLoock (Tweet ID: 1343872253407145984)
Body: @KasperLoock Felix makes me uneasy.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1343545832339955714
Date: 2020-12-28 13:14:22 GMT
Body: I guess a rug is a kind of COVER https://t.co/yVfKGL0lxg
Stats: 17 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1343443979627458560
Date: 2020-12-28 06:29:39 GMT
Replying to: @Hardwood_ (Tweet ID: 1343443747502256128)
Body: @Hardwood_ @AWice @cryptunez @SynphZ @SBF_Alameda Sometimes these are funny but this is pretty lazy.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1343045301473439744
Date: 2020-12-27 04:05:27 GMT
Replying to: @MaxSwog (Tweet ID: 1343039586528686080)
Body: @CryptoWonderboy Oh yeah I didn't write it but I was thinking of ending with
"... and SBF in a flame war"
I don't like that wording though and I was gonna insist of matching the syllable count.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1343039133774561280
Date: 2020-12-27 03:40:56 GMT
Body: If you're interested in going behind the curtain, I was gonna write a "12 Day of Christmas" parody about random crap that happened in 2020. Here's all I had when I abandoned that little project. https://t.co/aCd94i06bE
Stats: 27 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342941807068340224
Date: 2020-12-26 21:14:12 GMT
Replying to: @youngtilopa (Tweet ID: 1342939832440549378)
Body: @youngtilopa @cmsholdings I like how this implies the existence of some continuum along which pig sits between bear and bull.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342939933619580929
Date: 2020-12-26 21:06:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342939577401528320)
Body: @cmsholdings Is it like this? https://t.co/DOYELReDYr
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342939577401528320
Date: 2020-12-26 21:05:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342939516529565697)
Body: @cmsholdings Remembering bear/bull was kinda enough for me
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342939516529565697
Date: 2020-12-26 21:05:06 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1342938358998298626)
Body: @cmsholdings How do pigs fit into this
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342733156210724864
Date: 2020-12-26 07:25:05 GMT
Quoted tweet: @RafaelCosman: We also just saw your application for another $10mm loan- very exciting.
$TRU holders will be voting on it over the next 3 days, so will have a decision for you soon! Your on-chain credit history is getting stronger every day, so I expect there will be widespread support.
Body: The second we lose one of these votes my Twitter is gonna become all "rigged election" all the time. https://t.co/Krgi3vmVnJ
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342281048218947584
Date: 2020-12-25 01:28:34 GMT
Replying to: @mikevanrossum (Tweet ID: 1342279792087818241)
Body: @mikevanrossum @AdamScochran @FTX_Official Nope :(
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342271911150059521
Date: 2020-12-25 00:52:16 GMT
Replying to: @blocksoflego (Tweet ID: 1342271347464884224)
Body: @blocksoflego @FTX_Official No, I was always the only one at math camps and whatnot who didn't know how to play an instrument, I was always mortified by the question "what instrument do you play" (a question everyone had an answer to so it was pretty common to just ask presumptively).
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342270485497724929
Date: 2020-12-25 00:46:36 GMT
Replying to: @blocksoflego (Tweet ID: 1342269056162795521)
Body: @blocksoflego @FTX_Official Yeah I'm mostly into a pretty neat sweater + shorts + flip flops combo these days, not sure I own a tie in Hong Kong?
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342270081980502018
Date: 2020-12-25 00:45:00 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342072008180334592)
Body: Ugh fucked up the meter here, it should be "downturns" instead of "the downturns"
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342268510412541952
Date: 2020-12-25 00:38:45 GMT
Replying to: @saah1lk (Tweet ID: 1342268263724691457)
Body: @saah1lk @FTX_Official And they're so inefficient! Mine are all sub-divided into 2-4 regions.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342262935767269383
Date: 2020-12-25 00:16:36 GMT
Replying to: @KRMA_0 (Tweet ID: 1342157340322230275)
Body: @KRMA_0 @FTX_Official I dabble.
Also I guess I'm British or something now.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342262809472614400
Date: 2020-12-25 00:16:06 GMT
Replying to: @VentureCoinist (Tweet ID: 1342156889518432257)
Body: @VentureCoinist @FTX_Official Alameda ages you.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342262756444000256
Date: 2020-12-25 00:15:53 GMT
Replying to: @adamscochran (Tweet ID: 1342156869620686849)
Body: @AdamScochran @FTX_Official He didn't even say my name right :(
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342262601963589633
Date: 2020-12-25 00:15:16 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: We found a 32 min YouTube video from a fake FTX.
Their attempt at a fake SBF was not great. Trabucco doesn't work at FTX and is 28. https://t.co/lF5aCGaIJI
Body: Sadly I didn't have time to found FTX DeFi, I was too busy writing this poem: https://t.co/DjXcMSCn6Z
(This is fake, I've never worked for any version of "FTX," please don't send them your money) https://t.co/hOXdYInURK
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342134853764935680
Date: 2020-12-24 15:47:39 GMT
Replying to: @amologoko (Tweet ID: 1342134638324625414)
Body: @amologoko Ah I wish I’d seen that pic I’d have used it for my last tweet.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342088544701988865
Date: 2020-12-24 12:43:38 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1342087344053133313)
Body: @rsalame7926 https://t.co/NYegfI1gb3
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342081003322413056
Date: 2020-12-24 12:13:40 GMT
Replying to: @youngtilopa (Tweet ID: 1342080676842102785)
Body: @youngtilopa @austerity_sucks FTX’s margin system lets you use whatever you want as collateral so it’s sort of just a lot easier to maintain good martin for your positions, hence a lot fewer liquidations.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342079826396499972
Date: 2020-12-24 12:08:59 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1342079123175432196)
Body: @austerity_sucks Yeah SUSHI was weird :P doesn't take much to trigger its liquidations tho, and it did have a lot. Really can just be one large seller.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342078711823097858
Date: 2020-12-24 12:04:34 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1342078126818549761)
Body: @austerity_sucks Yeah haha I got too attached to the format and struggled to include all the content I wanted :P
Honestly it was kinda confusing -- my guess is something like "a few people thought e.g. LINK was gonna meet same fate as XRP, sold, caused a TON of liquidations" but it's unclear.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342075111583596552
Date: 2020-12-24 11:50:15 GMT
Replying to: @CL207 (Tweet ID: 1342074895480414209)
Body: @CL207 The genre of parody poetry has always spoken to me.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342072132574973952
Date: 2020-12-24 11:38:25 GMT
Replying to: @HsakaTrades (Tweet ID: 1342000295467872256)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: 'Twas the night before Christmas, and try though they may
Not a token was mooning, not even AAVE
Market buys getting sent by the apes without care
In hopes that new all-time highs soon would be there https://t.co/tFcHfnKIS6
Body: @HsakaTrades So I mentioned SUSHI but I went for a different gimmick https://t.co/DjXcMSCn6Z
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342072027436306432
Date: 2020-12-24 11:38:00 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342072017437126658)
Body: Now we all understand the critical reason
The crypto markets fell this holiday SZN
Some selling was real but the future seems bright
HAPPY BULL RUN TO ALL, AND TO ALL A GOOD NIGHT https://t.co/gpUGDEWmDK
Stats: 110 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342072017437126658
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342072008180334592)
Body: The market swoops in -- no one wanted to sell
Anywhere near the min price to which the coin fell
So we KNEW this rebound was likely on its way
A repeat benefactor -- Santa Claus on his sleigh https://t.co/Tm9R2Q9dZE
Stats: 32 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342072008180334592
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342072006183845888)
Body: I beg you, dear reader -- recall what we've learned
What happens when the downturns for coins are not earned?
When the selling is not the holder's inclination
But instead the result of a liquidation
Stats: 35 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342072006183845888
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342072002069188609)
Body: On Bitcoin! On SUSHI! SRM, FTT!
On Chainlink and Ether! And on XRP!
To the top of the graph! Where you were 'fore the fall!
To the moon! To the moon, to the moon, one and all! https://t.co/ErdKrt8AKw
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342072002069188609
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342071992720113664)
Body: But all hope was not lost, crypto stayed above zero
The selling fest ended -- no need for a hero
Every coin gained back ground it had recently lost
The buyers were back and bid/ask spreads were crossed https://t.co/tEDS5Fk1f9
Stats: 25 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342071992720113664
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342071990752972801)
Body: Orders always dry up when the market's away
And that is especially true Christmas Day
Impact from aggression gets much more intense
Causing MORE liquidations -- and then even more hence
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342071980833394688
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342071978643996672)
Body: When a coin's cut in half in the course of a week
The outlook for longs can get pretty bleak
At this point I believe that I've set expectations:
XRP got destroyed amongst liquidations
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342071978643996672
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342071968942604290)
Body: This magnifies winnings, of that there's no doubt
That carries a cost, and that cost gets borne out
When markets decide to move the other way
It magnifies losses traders need to pay https://t.co/3I2ubEPxc4
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342071968942604290
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342071966715371522)
Body: Crypto has high leverage! Which many traders love
It gives them positions many times above
Their net worths with which they could easily gain
The crypto exposure they seek to attain
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342071966715371522
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342071962672099329)
Body: Insane though it was, there was also a trend
Each XRP market tended to descend
To prices lower than we've seen in some time
Since before Thanksgiving and crypto's big climb https://t.co/kdIx9FYNhp
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342071962672099329
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342071960402948097)
Body: And elsewhere! Premia were just as sky-high
Japanese XRP was percents good to buy
Derivatives markets moved sort of at random
Arbs arise when the products do not move in tandem!
Stats: 28 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342071960402948097
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342071955537596417)
Body: Trading got pretty crazy because no one knew
Would withdrawals make it past the the phase "under review"?
The markets on Coinbase got quite out of line
Sometimes rich, sometimes cheap -- a trader's goldmine https://t.co/mZodTMgQgv
Stats: 38 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342071955537596417
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342071953268461568)
Body: Exchanges like Coinbase -- they threw up their hands
What to do when your government comes with the bans?
To delist or restrict? Or just pause for a while?
It was clear they'd react -- that's Coinbase's style
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342071953268461568
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342071937372094465)
Body: For days, XRP has been in the gutter
Because of the claims from Jay Clayton the FUDder
U.S. folks had to spew their positions before
The exchanges could manage to shutter the door https://t.co/pVix3LdUNM
Stats: 29 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342071937372094465
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342071932997390336)
Body: And amongst all the chaos, amongst disarray
Amongst the red numbers borne out of the fray
From all of the carnage arose one big loser
A coin with a regulatory accuser https://t.co/bpWRv68hZO
Stats: 35 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342071932997390336
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1342071923165995008)
Body: Our traders were summoned post-haste from their beds
While visions of making bank danced in their heads
SBF in his sweatshirt, and I in my tee
Had just downed something we're gonna label "coffee" https://t.co/3kGUTNLl97
Stats: 33 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1342071923165995008
Date: 2020-12-24 11:37:35 GMT
Body: 'Twas the night before Christmas, and try though they may
Not a token was mooning, not even AAVE
Market buys getting sent by the apes without care
In hopes that new all-time highs soon would be there https://t.co/tFcHfnKIS6
Stats: 292 likes, 57 retweets, 14 quote tweets, 22 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1341999034580443136
Date: 2020-12-24 06:47:57 GMT
Quoted tweet: @wantonwallet: The thing about BTC Dominance rising, is it sucks for traders because there are fewer idiosyncratic opportunities. In fact, it's akin to just going back to hard-money society where trading is irrelevant and all you should do is buy hard-money (Bitcoin). Cyber hornets winning rn. https://t.co/HfzOqYJrIZ
Body: Weird day to claim there are not altcoin-related idiosyncratic opportunities IMO :P https://t.co/PmR9JzeiBc
Stats: 34 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1341888577257402368
Date: 2020-12-23 23:29:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1341888499469877249)
Body: @TobbeTheTipper @tztokchad (Nah, I'll posit some real theories later)
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1341888499469877249
Date: 2020-12-23 23:28:44 GMT
Replying to: @TobbeTheTipper (Tweet ID: 1341885144983101447)
Body: @TobbeTheTipper @tztokchad Sale for last-minute Christmas shopping.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1341554689842630656
Date: 2020-12-23 01:22:17 GMT
Replying to: @AWice (Tweet ID: 1341545110970888193)
Body: @AWice Meter feeling neglected.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1341360914084204544
Date: 2020-12-22 12:32:17 GMT
Quoted tweet: @mattysino: Bonfida party https://t.co/JRartVKYgV
Body: Alameda is having one too! @Handi50419506 @rsalame7926 https://t.co/GKzQb8YcaN
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1341179847326879744
Date: 2020-12-22 00:32:48 GMT
Replying to: @bonfida (Tweet ID: 1341178043289636867)
Body: @bonfida Yes.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1341176348438482946
Date: 2020-12-22 00:18:53 GMT
Quoted tweet: @adamscochran: @AlamedaTrabucco Now taking pre-orders. https://t.co/X07AX8iTz4
Body: I'd get these for my parents for Christmas. https://t.co/vbsuGrPJJm
Stats: 37 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1340879085426249731
Date: 2020-12-21 04:37:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1340872374913122304)
Body: @rsalame7926 is Blanche.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1340872374913122304
Date: 2020-12-21 04:11:01 GMT
Quoted tweet: @rsalame7926: Alamedas desk will be open 24/7 through the Holidays, as Satoshi would have wanted. https://t.co/1CdIy2cvyZ
Body: Tag yourselves, I'm Dorothy. https://t.co/Z2gKeKlGFd
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1340553305370443776
Date: 2020-12-20 07:03:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1340552180726579200)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @tackettzane @jackshaftoes Is this what you meant?
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1340552180726579200
Date: 2020-12-20 06:58:40 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1340498847454261248)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @tackettzane @jackshaftoes On the way home from National MathCounts in 7th grade my team missed our flight and one of our team members cried but I was fine because the calculators they gave us had Block Dude.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339998316541607941
Date: 2020-12-18 18:17:49 GMT
Replying to: @figure31_ (Tweet ID: 1339943277064286211)
Body: @figure31_ @cmsholdings Wouldn’t dream of it.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339936691503603717
Date: 2020-12-18 14:12:56 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1339919257568751617)
Body: @cmsholdings Are we praying for my because you’re lying and lying is a sin.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339865357675155456
Date: 2020-12-18 09:29:29 GMT
Replying to: @blue__mount (Tweet ID: 1339864503513702400)
Body: @blue__mango OIs did go up in the products with lots of liquidations so could be! Always hard to predict when liquidations will happen exactly of course.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339818908199440385
Date: 2020-12-18 06:24:55 GMT
Replying to: @twapbaby (Tweet ID: 1339818690695589889)
Body: @twapbaby Oh sorry I meant: had there been half as many liquidations than there actually were, BTC would have reverted a lot more, likely below $20k immediately.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339812616651169795
Date: 2020-12-18 05:59:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810704342142976)
Body: And for reference, I used this graph because I started writing this last night and got too tired :P
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339811477243351040
Date: 2020-12-18 05:55:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339811168504799234)
Body: Alameda's doing a lot of *thinking* about what we should be doing on all but the shortest timescales, and a lot of it is gut-based (also news-based, staring at orders-based, and similar). I'm sure you're all doing the same -- may the best humans (or very impressive machines) win! https://t.co/ztCMydSKNz
Stats: 51 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 9 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339811168504799234
Date: 2020-12-18 05:54:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339811043690696705)
Body: So, what next? Who knows! This is pretty uncharted territory -- low liquidity, new price levels, new products dominating, maybe more U.S. stuff but is it over-impacted? Will alts catch up more robustly? Which? Sadly for us, studies probably gonna keep coming up short.
Stats: 18 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339811043690696705
Date: 2020-12-18 05:53:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810955044114432)
Body: But, something like recognizing XRP did GREAT during the last U.S.-driven BTC run-up might lead a human to think it might do that again -- even with just the one data point. And that intuition might lead you to put on some good deltas, if you timed it right! https://t.co/YUOuWWuPZ5
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810955044114432
Date: 2020-12-18 05:53:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810905320656896)
Body: Also, alts have been behaving with haphazard betas, and not having so consistent liquidations as they did in the last alt run-up -- it's because a lot of shorts already got liquidated last time, but it highlights another difference / way intuition needs to dominate strategy here.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810905320656896
Date: 2020-12-18 05:53:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810781479673856)
Body: And, we *knew* there was real, organic selling interest somewhere. Ended up materializing a few times under $24k so far, and the low liquidity + new longs getting opened meant it was pretty possible for a HUGE draw-down -- so the momentum bets have been of a different nature. https://t.co/VPqutjvnnn
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810781479673856
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810779030155264)
Body: So, betting on momentum seemed likely still pretty good -- and it *really* has been! Our strategy sorta became "buy whenever we're near levels where we predict shorts might get liquidated" and that's gone quite well. But it is different, because there was no "top."
Stats: 24 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810779030155264
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810776358420480)
Body: (There's actually a cool trade there -- the bid gets richer and richer, and if you can buy ETH on other markets as it slowly steps up, which is sometimes possible if you're crafty, you can buy before all its impact and then sell the BitMEX bid rich, locking in fast profit.)
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810776358420480
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810766862487552)
Body: A case study in how low liquidity got: BitMEX's ETH/BTC quanto perp is pretty liquid, usually -- it can absorb orders of several mil without much issue. When a $15M or so liquidation popped up? It was on the book for minutes! Stepping up and up and up. https://t.co/Lx3WbpxVVi
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810766862487552
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810765100859394)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What happened on Thanksgiving 2020?
(Market color edition -- a thread about why liquidity matters) https://t.co/jAAeUi8GA7
Body: Liquidity was LOW (still sorta is, but that's changing). This meant that big orders had a LOT of impact, and as that impact (plus natural buying pressure) accrues, it compounds, as more shorts got liquidated. Sounds familiar!
https://t.co/POuO8KLNdf
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810765100859394
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810762810789888)
Body: What followed here was an exercise in favoring human intuition over a computer's studies -- what would the markets do in a new paradigm where waiting to pass the ATH wasn't a factor? Well, the new paradigm looked a lot like the old one in some ways ...
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810762810789888
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810759161700352)
Body: With around half as many shorts getting liquidated? Probably the post-pop reversion here goes down a LOT more -- back down to 19700 or something? Unclear, liquidity got low. But back down for sure, at least temporarily (we now know people probably buy it back up :P). https://t.co/6eDYdzLGfO
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810759161700352
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810757236514817)
Body: An interesting thing about these: liquidations by definition are *closing* someone's positions. But OIs did *not* go down by enough when these happened, and premia did *not* go up enough. This meant there was a LOT of selling -- about half as much as got liquidated.
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810753579139072
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810752052436992)
Body: ... but not enough to counter-act all the liquidations that happened as BTC crossed the $20k threshold :P (I didn't say they *didn't* happen). Indeed, remember all the levered-up shorts that got opened on Binance and BitMEX during the fall after the last $20k test?
Stats: 16 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810752052436992
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810749917458434)
Body: Alameda did know things were different during the run-up, but I'll admit we didn't *nail* this -- we still thought that there'd be $20k resistance even though the U.S. / sticky inflows were definitely there. And, actually, there was a TON of $20k (and just above) selling ...
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810749917458434
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810740593545217)
Body: So all our fancy data analysis wasn't going to be enough -- to really nail predicting what happened when BTC *did* break through $20k, you'd need human intuition -- noticing what I said about re: quarterlies being different, guessing that meant the inflows were "stickier." https://t.co/N9AuCgUQhK
Stats: 16 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810740593545217
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810738966122496)
Body: You could imagine studies which nail things like "if it's these products leading do X near $20k, if these do Y" -- but there were like, 5 data points, and that's just not enough to optimize this. It's enough to think selling $19900 makes sense on average -- not much else.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810738966122496
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810735593943040)
Body: If you're just running a study on the past few weeks, you might come to the conclusion that selling near $20k is just an incredible trade -- we ran this study and came to that conclusion a few times! Here's a post I made in our "delta-force" channel on Slack: https://t.co/RryW3oyM1a
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810735593943040
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810734167846913)
Body: And they get liquidated less, too -- so these buys weren't apt to get undone as easily as 100x levered-long Binance perps would on the first draw-down. All this is to say: this rally was driven by more "organic" buying, in both spot and derivatives markets.
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810734167846913
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810732712476674)
Body: A big difference? These products (spot and the OK/HB quarterlies) tend to have way less leverage (possible or realized, as the case may be) -- the positions get held for more time, and buyers in them tend to indicate "I'm buying to hold" more than "I'm buying to scalp."
Stats: 24 likes, 2 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810732712476674
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810730795651072)
Body: And the returns column indicates that the premium on those quarterlies went up a TON more than other products' did -- these were AGGRESSIVE buyers, and they were buying a ton. This was the pattern for most of these inflows -- less BitMEX/Binance perps, more quarterlies/spot.
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810730795651072
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810727192797185)
Body: Here's a report one of Alameda's traders made that runs every hour and tells us about the products with the biggest OI changes, as well as their price moves. In the hour from the biggest moves right before BTC hit $20k, the biggest inflows were actually in ... March quarterlies? https://t.co/UmZoBXIaAA
Stats: 32 likes, 2 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810727192797185
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810725871534081)
Body: The previous run-ups were dominated by aggressive buyers in a few markets with really high leverage -- Binance and BitMEX perps, mostly. This time, those were in the mix -- heavily! -- but not quite as heavily as some other products.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810725871534081
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810724441280512)
Body: Derivatives markets (outside the U.S.) still, of course, have the *vast* majority of volume -- they have leverage, so they almost have to. This was true in the last run-ups too -- but just "futures" isn't enough to tell the whole story.
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810724441280512
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810722675453957)
Body: So, the institutional BTC buying is both more intense and more "robust" -- it's *everywhere*, not just a few firms.
But something else was different, too. Note in the volume monitor, Coinbase's volume is higher than usual -- but it's also really low globally.
Stats: 19 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810722675453957
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810712105848835)
Body: The DOW recently announced their new crypto indices, CME is listing ETH futures, Microstrategy putting $650M into BTC, GBTC AUM continuing to balloon, these all point in the same direction, and that direction is a resounding "up" for the crypto markets. https://t.co/9vT8TsaYcy
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810712105848835
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810707852824577)
Body: And direct signs of all this exist. Take a look at FTX's volume monitor: U.S. trading hubs like Coinbase having more volume than normal *is* a signal that U.S. customers are doing *something*, and when BTC is going up ...
(Coinbase even crashed from "heightened activity :P). https://t.co/2whNan7PXs
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810707852824577
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810706384809987)
Body: If anything, the narratives surrounding various U.S. funds and other companies buying BTC have gotten *stronger* in the past week or two than they were around Thanksgiving. More and more funds have announced their crypto holdings or plans to acquire them.
Stats: 19 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810706384809987
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339810704342142976)
Body: As has been pointed out, I've been adamant that the rallies in the past month or so have been heavily fueled by rampant liquidations on both BitMEX and Binance. And they have! But they were also fueled by organic buying among U.S. investors, as has been a popular narrative.
Stats: 26 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339810704342142976
Date: 2020-12-18 05:52:19 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Alameda won't be participating in this, but it does present a chance to explain how we think about the value of man vs. machine in our trading. https://t.co/62yGWAS1C3
Body: Many close calls later, BTC finally managed to break through $20k -- and it BLEW through it, barely slowing down til $22k. What was different this time?
A thread about man vs. machine.
https://t.co/mGRJ852xVb https://t.co/gEZ96KAzkJ
Stats: 166 likes, 20 retweets, 8 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339394109815963648
Date: 2020-12-17 02:16:55 GMT
Quoted tweet: @thalamu_: inb4 @AlamedaTrabucco: “This is all easily explainable by bitmex liquidations”
Body: I finally have a "brand" https://t.co/8tCG2m9pMJ
Stats: 34 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339393246301093888
Date: 2020-12-17 02:13:29 GMT
Replying to: @m4k0013 (Tweet ID: 1339392677801058304)
Body: @M4K0013 @thalamu_ Liquidations surely involved, just not as close to fully explained by them as usual.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339391800352501767
Date: 2020-12-17 02:07:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1339391646106980352)
Body: @thalamu_ I need a good format for a thread and also it's still really busy but this was a cool one.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339391646106980352
Date: 2020-12-17 02:07:07 GMT
Replying to: @thalamu_ (Tweet ID: 1339389373482029056)
Body: @thalamu_ It actually isn't!
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339175529212071940
Date: 2020-12-16 11:48:21 GMT
Replying to: @Jordakas (Tweet ID: 1339175214958186496)
Body: @Jordakas @AWice Did you see @SBF_Alameda's tweet about his skirmish with a bottle of cider? I feel like weed is way more than we should have hoped for.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339173808029061120
Date: 2020-12-16 11:41:31 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: To be blunt, this is one of the dopest joint listings we've done.
FTX: blazing a path forward and weeding out the competition.
https://t.co/dt4Y10VMhP https://t.co/R77Il9dB2U
Body: Imagine the writing of this tweet. https://t.co/JNps1m5OSx
Stats: 59 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339091649905926144
Date: 2020-12-16 06:15:03 GMT
Replying to: @AWice (Tweet ID: 1339090724659232768)
Body: @AWice @badams78 https://t.co/eUhGAKZoDz
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339089203200577537
Date: 2020-12-16 06:05:19 GMT
Replying to: @Evan_ss6 (Tweet ID: 1339069310942261248)
Body: @Evan_ss6 @cmsholdings @StuartYoung95 @badams78 @AWice @lightcrypto @ThinkingUSD @SplitCapital @DavidEldar182 Nice how much we talkin???
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339037567677734913
Date: 2020-12-16 02:40:08 GMT
Replying to: @zackvoell (Tweet ID: 1339037225003134976)
Body: @zackvoell Expected value MAXIMIZED.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339036839202627585
Date: 2020-12-16 02:37:15 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1339036606959939584)
Body: @cmsholdings There IS such thing as a bad question.
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339034557153079297
Date: 2020-12-16 02:28:11 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsholdings: CMS is looking to potentially expand it's ranks and has created the following test
https://t.co/4T8dSwTjdv
Body: Alameda has one too: https://t.co/lMpsV0h5VJ https://t.co/Bk35shfzzK
Stats: 39 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 10 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339023920985325570
Date: 2020-12-16 01:45:55 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1339021959510847488)
Body: @cmsholdings Is going outside a lot really the best predictor of eating McRibs.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339021826136031233
Date: 2020-12-16 01:37:35 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1339020993403252736)
Body: @cmsholdings I've only ever seen MCRIB in crosswords and never in real life.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339021424518819840
Date: 2020-12-16 01:36:00 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1339008342266703874)
Body: @cmsholdings @StuartYoung95 @badams78 @AWice @lightcrypto @ThinkingUSD @SplitCapital Not publicly tho (unless you're my parents who instead of being discreet just sorta each picked one of me and my sister as their favorite and were super upfront about it, which caused Zero Problems for anyone).
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339008155435429891
Date: 2020-12-16 00:43:16 GMT
Replying to: @StuartYoung95 (Tweet ID: 1339007708121329665)
Body: @StuartYoung95 @cmsholdings @badams78 @AWice @lightcrypto @ThinkingUSD @SplitCapital Not sure which of these I should defend, it's like asking a parent to choose their favorite child.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1339007347394453504
Date: 2020-12-16 00:40:03 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1338978707936079874)
Body: @cmsholdings @StuartYoung95 @badams78 @AWice @lightcrypto @ThinkingUSD @SplitCapital Please don't ruin my plan to hustle people at Scrabble.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1338978123270897664
Date: 2020-12-15 22:43:56 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1338977816130580481)
Body: @cmsholdings @StuartYoung95 @badams78 @AWice @lightcrypto @ThinkingUSD @SplitCapital ^desperate
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337742247056400385
Date: 2020-12-12 12:53:00 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1337741918843752448)
Body: *cheaper :P
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337741940901625858
Date: 2020-12-12 12:51:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1337741932185804801)
Body: And using biased data is often WAY worse than doing nothing at all! I think that, in reality, close to all sized traders acted in close to the same way during the period this article analyzed -- which is a lot closer to the reasonable prior, anyway. https://t.co/rDiLsLjxSk
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337741932185804801
Date: 2020-12-12 12:51:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1337741930776514562)
Body: And that's especially true for traders putting on lots of spreads -- which the traders who do the most volume quite often are doing! That's how volume is up and also BTC doesn't just move 50% in a week -- they're not doing something directional, on average.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337741930776514562
Date: 2020-12-12 12:51:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1337741929363095558)
Body: The more general lesson here: it's really hard to try to draw robustly good conclusions with incomplete data, and especially with data that's incomplete in predictably biased ways. Knowing about 1% of a trader's trades tells you almost *nothing* about what they're doing.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337741929363095558
Date: 2020-12-12 12:51:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1337741928033447938)
Body: ... like buy BTC on the OKEx BTC/USDT market -- meaning that doing that on net might have actually, literally 0 to do with either net buying BTC or even thinking something specific about the OKEx BTC/USDT market. We might just have USDT.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337741928033447938
Date: 2020-12-12 12:51:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1337741926645133312)
Body: Amd, FWIW, there are other little idiosyncratic effects at play, too. Alameda sometimes might do a large OTC deal, buying a bunch of USDT for cheap -- that means we have to slowly sell out of it, meaning we're gonna be *slightly* more apt to do some things than normal ...
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337741926645133312
Date: 2020-12-12 12:51:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1337741925340774408)
Body: Now, margin is not equal, there exist other products, and really you wanna compare the products to their expected short-term moves, not holding til March. But the premia are up recently and USDT isn't down, suggesting it's likely not *crazy* we prefer buying BTC/USDT to futures.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337741925340774408
Date: 2020-12-12 12:51:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1337741924002746368)
Body: Since USDT is trading >$1, this sort of just suggests that -- margin considerations and whatnot being equal -- we'll *likely* want to be buying BTC/USDT and selling futures, to lock in a spread.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337741924002746368
Date: 2020-12-12 12:51:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1337741922157305859)
Body: This displays the current premium of 3 BTC futures expiring in March, as well as how they've changed in the past 30s, 2m, 15m, 1h, and 6h. They're all at close to 2.5-3% premia to spot, and they've risen in the past few hours.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337741922157305859
Date: 2020-12-12 12:51:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1337741918843752448)
Body: What does "better" mean? It's complicated, but let's take a look at a section of one of Alameda's tools traders use to monitor the markets: our premium viewer. https://t.co/3glcNsjY6I
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337741918843752448
Date: 2020-12-12 12:51:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1337741917317042176)
Body: And it quite rarely is. No, in this case, the real reason was that OKEx's BTC/USDT market was, on average (at the times we executed), a) one of the richer spot BTC markets (and USDT has been trading >$1, so this makes sense) b) one of the "better" BTC markets overall to buy.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337741917317042176
Date: 2020-12-12 12:51:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1337741915916103690)
Body: Why is this? Well, during this time, we were also fairly flat BTC deltas (as we quite often are), so the reason *surely* was not, as this report might have you claim, that we were net buying BTC today!
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337741915916103690
Date: 2020-12-12 12:51:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1337741914188083200)
Body: ... and that reason is: it's out of line with some other market(s)! For instance, let's just take today: I just checked, and it looks like in the 12 hours I've been trading today, Alameda has net bought 100 BTC or so on the OKEx BTC/USDT market.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337741914188083200
Date: 2020-12-12 12:51:41 GMT
Quoted tweet: @austerity_sucks: Bit more on this when looking at methodology and weaknesses (many they mention too):
- Only using OKEx spot BTC/USDT market
- arbitrarily using execution sizes to characterise client type
- No OTC or Derivatives data included
- Just using aggressor to identify vol as buy/sell https://t.co/3GAA2KIcx6 https://t.co/glTRtl3R93
Body: Yeah, among other problems with this analysis, it also just TOTALLY ignores the main reason that a company like Alameda (which does trades from all of these buckets all day every day) might have for trading net in one direction in a day on one market: https://t.co/4hOjo5ziyZ
Stats: 33 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1337255411687202819
Date: 2020-12-11 04:38:29 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1337250696089899010)
Body: @SBF_Alameda More watches with more emeralds.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1336589431940079616
Date: 2020-12-09 08:32:07 GMT
Replying to: @blue__mount (Tweet ID: 1336566277142441985)
Body: @blue__mango Anyplace w outsized net buying or selling can have long-term impact, and the places w highest overall volume will tend to dictate short-term, yeah.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1336564176089620480
Date: 2020-12-09 06:51:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1336564048452747265)
Body: @blue__mango This, of course, ignores OTC markets FWIW, as they don't report all their volume.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1336564048452747265
Date: 2020-12-09 06:51:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1336563814607642625)
Body: @blue__mango And FWIW even among spot markets, the American ones (where you'd think the U.S. buying would be) barely have ANY volume compared to others. This is because they don't have leverage to the extent others do!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1336563814607642625
Date: 2020-12-09 06:50:20 GMT
Replying to: @blue__mount (Tweet ID: 1336562735358816257)
Body: @blue__mango More volume -> more relevance for what prices "are" and how they move, and derivatives consistently have the most volume. See: https://t.co/jAWS1vPN0s, coingecko, etc.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1336546305003249665
Date: 2020-12-09 05:40:45 GMT
Replying to: @Hardwood_ (Tweet ID: 1336545025736531968)
Body: @Hardwood_ Confused??? What does this stand for??????????
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1336544156542324736
Date: 2020-12-09 05:32:13 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: AirBNB isn't on NASDAQ yet.
But it is on FTX.
https://t.co/v7eNSXNK7H https://t.co/LhmaUUOqFF
Body: NASDAQ needs to replace the "I" in "IPO" https://t.co/EiD6OIUCgS
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1336497014612217856
Date: 2020-12-09 02:24:53 GMT
Quoted tweet: @bonfida: "Liquidity is oxygen for a financial system" - Ruth Porat
@SBF_Alameda @AlamedaTrabucco @AlamedaResearch https://t.co/v4gUXGEuXA
Body: Preach, Ruth.
https://t.co/POuO8KLNdf
(A bit of a liquidity vacuum contributed to this AM's price action, too, will write up some thoughts on that later.) https://t.co/WlTIADHnKQ
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1336496506061262848
Date: 2020-12-09 02:22:52 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoSaveMe (Tweet ID: 1336474675766030336)
Body: @CryptoSaveMe Yes I will post something later!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1336128102741626881
Date: 2020-12-08 01:58:58 GMT
Replying to: @VentureCoinist (Tweet ID: 1336122613995802625)
Body: @VentureCoinist Appreciate the shoutout!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1336122552054206464
Date: 2020-12-08 01:36:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1336122486094643200)
Body: @blocksoflego @thalamu_ But it definitely was the predominant narrative for some reason on CT.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1336122486094643200
Date: 2020-12-08 01:36:39 GMT
Replying to: @blocksoflego (Tweet ID: 1336121339929743363)
Body: @blocksoflego @thalamu_ Yeah so this was sometimes true on longer timescales (there'd be spot inflows net over an hour and markets would rise, this was a decent signal). But a) not always, it only happened a few times b) not on short timescales almost ever.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1336120209480945665
Date: 2020-12-08 01:27:36 GMT
Replying to: @blocksoflego (Tweet ID: 1336114735721246720)
Body: @blocksoflego @thalamu_ I'm actually not too sure where people got this -- it was true a bit of the time but on shorter timescales futures tended to be leading almost all the time.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1336113619822493696
Date: 2020-12-08 01:01:25 GMT
Replying to: @thalamu_ (Tweet ID: 1336113016450912258)
Body: @thalamu_ Derivatives markets tend to have more volume, I'd say it's much more common that spot markets lag.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1336112093485957120
Date: 2020-12-08 00:55:21 GMT
Replying to: @thalamu_ (Tweet ID: 1336110874822496258)
Body: @thalamu_ Once markets go up (or down) on liquidations, they do *not* tend to revert all the way -- that makes sense, since someone who sold was forced to buy, legitimately adding buying pressure to the system. Spot then moves to match "where the market is now."
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1335782005762494471
Date: 2020-12-07 03:03:42 GMT
Replying to: @realryanpurdy (Tweet ID: 1335779871952424960)
Body: @realryanpurdy @SBF_Alameda Me.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1335779165237219328
Date: 2020-12-07 02:52:25 GMT
Replying to: @realryanpurdy (Tweet ID: 1335779065043820545)
Body: @realryanpurdy @SBF_Alameda Who's been awake the longest?
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1335775410009767936
Date: 2020-12-07 02:37:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1335775342418558977)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @Nishad__Singh vs. deodorant
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1335775342418558977
Date: 2020-12-07 02:37:13 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1335739196971995138)
Body: @SBF_Alameda SBF vs. Kelly Criterion
Stats: 66 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1335202992794992640
Date: 2020-12-05 12:42:55 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: 🚀https://t.co/70dUvRUKRN is officially revamped to provide a sleeker and more powerful trading experience 🚀 https://t.co/LyiY6L6LNP
Body: Damn I typically just dislike my interactions with most exchange websites (Alameda uses APIs for everything), but this honestly is pretty good. https://t.co/5HwS0zcZIL
Stats: 49 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1335061271968825344
Date: 2020-12-05 03:19:46 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1335042241123942400)
Body: @jackshaftoes @lawmaster @dantwany @SBF_Alameda Guys don't forget about the 15 minutes he had to wait for that foam.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1334962511104278529
Date: 2020-12-04 20:47:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1334962169645920256)
Body: @QuantumWei Also, failure just sort of tends to not be that bad, especially for young people.
I basically feel that almost all my biggest successes in life has come from putting myself into situations where a rational outsider would have assumed I'd definitely fail.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1334962169645920256
Date: 2020-12-04 20:45:58 GMT
Replying to: @QuantumWei (Tweet ID: 1242905525983031301)
Body: @QuantumWei Definitely over-confident -- over-confidence leads to putting yourself in more situations where:
- it turns out you were more set up to succeed than you thought
- success only depends on others' perceptions which tend to just match your own
- you should have failed but don't
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1334647388011601920
Date: 2020-12-03 23:55:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1334640765989867520)
Body: Update: she learned that I use her detergent from this tweet.
Stats: 41 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1334640765989867520
Date: 2020-12-03 23:28:49 GMT
Quoted tweet: @jackshaftoes: @binance Caroline Ellison - Alameda Quant and one of the first few team members. https://t.co/ba2VhlmuKu
Body: She's an expert on all of Alameda's models, and also once disseminated a Spotify playlist called "Trabby Sucks" to our entire company.
She's also my roommate and lets me use her laundry detergent, though, so things are complicated. https://t.co/jeecIS4Lgq
Stats: 49 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1334296614748315649
Date: 2020-12-03 00:41:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlisonbobEth (Tweet ID: 1334292954664452097)
Body: @aalexis1234 @AdamScochran @SBF_Alameda I would never allow a party to pull me away from trading long enough to understand his tweet!!!
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1334250789175345154
Date: 2020-12-02 21:39:11 GMT
Replying to: @adamscochran (Tweet ID: 1334250355161501701)
Body: @AdamScochran @SBF_Alameda Getting him to drink scotch is surely a losing battle.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1334249830445506560
Date: 2020-12-02 21:35:23 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1334219306666639360)
Body: @SBF_Alameda Wait I don't follow this at all, where was foam coming out from?
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1334153833291792386
Date: 2020-12-02 15:13:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1334153385474281472)
Body: @cmsholdings GTFO Will Shortz + Byron Walden. https://t.co/tpiJ6cY0yB
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1334153385474281472
Date: 2020-12-02 15:12:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1334153339164971009)
Body: @cmsholdings Also E-CASH.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1334153339164971009
Date: 2020-12-02 15:11:58 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1334118766574264321)
Body: @cmsholdings The NYT crossword once called it E-CURRENCIES and I considered just abandoning ship on that entire hobby.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1334052386923446272
Date: 2020-12-02 08:30:49 GMT
Replying to: @iamjosephyoung (Tweet ID: 1334029771588583424)
Body: @iamjosephyoung Second????
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333803882607116291
Date: 2020-12-01 16:03:21 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: Today, once again, was a very large volume and volatility day.
How did FTX hold up?
a) much better! Months since the last downtime.
b) fill processing latency was much better as well: not optimal but not terrible
c) still more work to do, more coming out over the next month
Body: @Nishad__Singh can you walk me through the design decisions that led you to prefer no downtime? https://t.co/Xod1Iz2UAl
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333797148463284225
Date: 2020-12-01 15:36:35 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1333796822553300995)
Body: @jackshaftoes @Kasperbit @FTX_Official @TheSerumist @IC_Zacs @travaglio_carlo @CurtisJameson @mettmerizing chill bro
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333787117030236160
Date: 2020-12-01 14:56:43 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1333786649247895554)
Body: @cmsholdings This company is UNDER 30, thank you, there is a Spotify playlist coming.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333786577483431946
Date: 2020-12-01 14:54:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333786521787252743)
Body: @cmsholdings *release, "drop" kinda confusing :P
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333786521787252743
Date: 2020-12-01 14:54:22 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1333786169012744198)
Body: @cmsholdings It did drop like 2% ago or so at this point.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333780087842357248
Date: 2020-12-01 14:28:48 GMT
Body: I know one of these guys, he's OK. @SBF_Alameda
https://t.co/lK1p6LlBew
Stats: 89 likes, 1 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333753012171411462
Date: 2020-12-01 12:41:12 GMT
Body: One of these days is gonna be different than all the 8 days that came before it but today is not that day. https://t.co/NR707xzbFF
Stats: 66 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333547832897282048
Date: 2020-11-30 23:05:54 GMT
Replying to: @Kasperbit (Tweet ID: 1333495197372731393)
Body: @Kasperbit @FTX_Official @TheSerumist @IC_Zacs @travaglio_carlo @CurtisJameson @mettmerizing @jackshaftoes 😘
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333547350728482817
Date: 2020-11-30 23:03:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333458186896982023)
Body: It did recover a bit more this time than it did last time, and it's slipped into a "zone" without a ton of liquidations (given it's been here + all nearby prices recently this makes sense). Unclear which way it will go, has some room before TONS of momentum should pick up again.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333463831243149313
Date: 2020-11-30 17:32:06 GMT
Replying to: @nightmayoralty (Tweet ID: 1333460900930609152)
Body: @nightmayoralty Exchange APIs.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333463797458108416
Date: 2020-11-30 17:31:58 GMT
Replying to: @BoofCapital (Tweet ID: 1333460774568734728)
Body: @Retro_Gradskiy Not sure, we use exchange APIs.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333459466591686658
Date: 2020-11-30 17:14:45 GMT
Replying to: @BoofCapital (Tweet ID: 1333459233145298944)
Body: @Retro_Gradskiy Exchanges make liquidations public, and you can always see like, how much volume is trading, how premia are changing, how aggressive various buying / selling orders are, etc. Lets you get a guess at what's driving price action.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333458186896982023
Date: 2020-11-30 17:09:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333457695538638849)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What happened here? Quick thread while I brace for impact, in a way. https://t.co/pP5TmFQWp8
Body: On some level this rally to near 20k followed by immediate reversion is like, an actual carbon copy of this one! Trading it the same way basically just worked -- hope you did!
https://t.co/SlpVn7O74X
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333457695538638849
Date: 2020-11-30 17:07:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333457487320649729)
Body: And the thing that ALWAYS happens when liquidations end is reversion: how much is unclear, and this is reverting more than is typical because a bunch of new levered longs are getting liquidated, too. But that was also predictable, it literally happened last week near ATH!
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333457487320649729
Date: 2020-11-30 17:06:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333457359998316546)
Body: (At least from 19300 or so on to 19900, anyway -- there was plenty of organic buying before that, but by 19300 it was mostly liquidations.)
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333457359998316546
Date: 2020-11-30 17:06:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333456218258513920)
Body: It is worth noting that if you noticed the liquidations dried up -- which was pretty possible -- selling was a great trade, because of how much of the pop was due SOLELY to those liquidations. There were a LOT, organic buying did not explain TOO much of this rally.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333456218258513920
Date: 2020-11-30 17:01:51 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Good stuff so far! Seems buying has NOT died down yet and there have so far been plenty of liquidations (from all the levered shorts who sold into the Thanksgiving crash). Lots of upward momentum as a result -- mostly in the coins we've come to expect will have liquidations. https://t.co/jEq4VKn8vi
Body: I do wish I had something more "different" to say than: buying kept up into liquidations which dried up around 19900, people sold and the new levered longs got liquidated down to here. But that's pretty much the whole story so far today! https://t.co/OLl8TzQ2tp https://t.co/dJe8nU9uFe
Stats: 29 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333414926803554306
Date: 2020-11-30 14:17:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333412544476659713)
Body: Maybe this dip is a "Cyber Monday sale"
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333412544476659713
Date: 2020-11-30 14:08:18 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Heading into U.S. Cyber Monday, what's the market been doing this weekend?
Honestly, it's eerily similar to what happened last week ...
https://t.co/POuO8KLNdf https://t.co/d543uw1KbS
Body: Good stuff so far! Seems buying has NOT died down yet and there have so far been plenty of liquidations (from all the levered shorts who sold into the Thanksgiving crash). Lots of upward momentum as a result -- mostly in the coins we've come to expect will have liquidations. https://t.co/jEq4VKn8vi
Stats: 18 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393585610182659
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333393576395382784)
Body: And if we start pushing ATHs again, it seems like it'll be hard for liquidation-driven momentum not to dominate -- but, honestly, that's sorta true lately if anything happens.
See you on the other side! https://t.co/94LUfEvPiH
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393576395382784
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333393575082565632)
Body: So that's the weekend -- what to expect? Last week we saw both -- sometimes there were legitimate U.S. inflows and things kept going up, sometimes the market saw there *weren't* and things went down. Determining which is going on today *early* will be key.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393575082565632
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333393573341847554)
Body: FWIW it did start slowing down a *little* for some coins, as you might expect -- if the >1 beta for e.g. XRP is *unnatural* (e.g. driven from liquidations), as people start seeing that you might expect they'll sell into "rich prices" -- note XRP's flat graph for the past day.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393573341847554
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333393569864769536)
Body: And given that organic buying interest, they, again, still have their liquidations (the ones with popular leverage, anyway) -- and the SUPER low weekend liquidity + typically lower altcoin liquidity means the alts have more momentum and therefore moved up more. https://t.co/GULSHG9cYw
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393569864769536
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333393567960625153)
Body: This is for the same reasons -- crypto picked its beta back up again, and for the major altcoins people still seem to be speculating that they're gonna be plausible U.S. investments just like BTC (see, e.g., the types of funds they're tending to invest in).
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393567960625153
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333393564647124994)
Body: OK, cool, that's BTC -- what's up with alt coins since Friday? Again, the answer is *basically* the same thing they were doing last week. They're moving in the same direction as BTC, and for the most part they're moving *more* in that direction. https://t.co/JPANee9d0S
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393564647124994
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333393562918998016)
Body: And, FWIW, another reason I think momentum kinda makes sense for this weekend in particular is that if the effect is "we wanna buy pre-U.S. open," anyone doing that had a LONG time to do so -- basically 3 days, compared to 12 hours we were seeing last week for the same effect.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393562918998016
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333393553779617792)
Body: Creating more momentum up than we'd have seen in a vacuum -- but I'm sure you expected that, it's probably been the effect most typifying the market moves from the past week or so, and it's kinda all I talk about :P https://t.co/JZUjf66o6E
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393553779617792
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333393552466821120)
Body: So, that explains the organic buying from the post-Thanksgiving bottom -- any other effects? I won't dwell too much on this point since I have so much before, but the Thanksgiving crash was facilitated by plenty of levered shorts ... which got liquidated on the up-move.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393552466821120
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333393550571040768)
Body: A priori it's never easy to know "liquidations are for sure over" -- but waiting a few hours and noting that OIs cooled off, momentum seemed over, and there hadn't been a ton of liquidations in a while seemed to be good enough for the market. It often is!
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393550571040768
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333393547177848832)
Body: And there's another effect driving some organic buying here, too. Post-drawn out liquidations, we *really* often see a swift rebound once they're over -- and remember, that's just what Thanksgiving was! A TON of the recovery happened in the 12 hours after liquidations down ended. https://t.co/XQFlnfI1uY
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393547177848832
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333393545768570882)
Body: The narrative that Thanksgiving was deflation because U.S. people went on vacation and couldn't buy anymore is widespread -- and in a few hours, according to that narrative, they'll be back! Seems to make sense to expect just what we're seeing -- pre-positioning for inflows.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393545768570882
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333393544426389505)
Body: Recall the progression from last week -- BTC went up during U.S. hours because institutions bought. Then during Asia day, markets went up because people *predicted* that would happen -- I think that's what's going on now, just more globally.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393544426389505
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1333393542475964421)
Body: Obviously, markets are up -- they've been pretty steadily rising ever since the Thanksgiving crash. What's driving that? My guess is basically the same effect that drove markets up during Asia days last week -- an expectation that U.S. institutions will buy this week.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333393542475964421
Date: 2020-11-30 12:52:48 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What happened on Thanksgiving 2020?
(Market color edition -- a thread about why liquidity matters) https://t.co/jAAeUi8GA7
Body: Heading into U.S. Cyber Monday, what's the market been doing this weekend?
Honestly, it's eerily similar to what happened last week ...
https://t.co/POuO8KLNdf https://t.co/d543uw1KbS
Stats: 18 likes, 4 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333019833332498438
Date: 2020-11-29 12:07:49 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1333019288794406918)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @AWice It's not like a real desk has improved that situation substantially.
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1333017897329856512
Date: 2020-11-29 12:00:07 GMT
Replying to: @AWice (Tweet ID: 1333017717977227267)
Body: @AWice Can I send you a desk this hurts me to think about.
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332612809746649088
Date: 2020-11-28 09:10:27 GMT
Replying to: @Be1garat (Tweet ID: 1332507346363289600)
Body: @Be1garat Probably something! I legit think it's really unclear but I'm expecting that the DMZ people seem to have established for the weekend will likely get disbanded.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332603079359795201
Date: 2020-11-28 08:31:47 GMT
Body: Concerning: sleeping for 15 hours.
More concerning: that it's like the 5th most concerning thing that's happened to you in the past few days.
Stats: 28 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332285972604612610
Date: 2020-11-27 11:31:43 GMT
Replying to: @NyuuRoe (Tweet ID: 1332251055153876993)
Body: @NyuuRoe Alameda’s OTC desk can quote most stuff BTW, feel free to reach out.
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332152058451902464
Date: 2020-11-27 02:39:35 GMT
Replying to: @Cryptolyx (Tweet ID: 1332151878688247809)
Body: @Cryptolyx @DoveyWan Oh I think I saw a RT of it in my feed and thought it was new.
Still true tho :P
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332151458251247617
Date: 2020-11-27 02:37:12 GMT
Replying to: @mikevanrossum (Tweet ID: 1332150928804200448)
Body: @mikevanrossum Our biggest cause these days is trying to improve @Nishad__Singh's wardrobe.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332150418969743360
Date: 2020-11-27 02:33:04 GMT
Replying to: @DoveyWan (Tweet ID: 1129286466813739009)
Body: @DoveyWan There were actually more liquidations elsewhere today ;)
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332115684055076864
Date: 2020-11-27 00:15:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104342413791232)
Body: Almost included something about "choosing to not sleep this week and sleep a lot next week is maximizing because this week matters more" but that felt "unrelatable."
Stats: 31 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332115050543255554
Date: 2020-11-27 00:12:32 GMT
Replying to: @anonmenon111 (Tweet ID: 1332110583655784449)
Body: @vindimenon Most of the things I tend to share are useful insofar as they describe how we thought of something that has been working but, in all honesty, has likely gotten at least a good amount worse by the time I share it because of how quickly the market evolves.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332114495808782336
Date: 2020-11-27 00:10:19 GMT
Replying to: @jay_ftx (Tweet ID: 1332112507272617985)
Body: @sergeypartnered We tend to be pretty selective, have had bad experiences trying to train / integrate people who don't gel + become good at the sort of stuff we do pretty fast.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332114156045025280
Date: 2020-11-27 00:08:58 GMT
Replying to: @jay_ftx (Tweet ID: 1332112735962865664)
Body: @sergeypartnered Product = ETH perps on Huobi, e.g.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332110111884472320
Date: 2020-11-26 23:52:54 GMT
Replying to: @utxoclub (Tweet ID: 1332108220245045248)
Body: @nicholasfarrow We've looked into some analogous stuff, yeah.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104342413791232
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104333379289088)
Body: For the market, this week was dense. For Alameda, this week was *exhausting*. We're a small team, and we PUSH during periods like this -- it's fine when it lasts a day, but a week? It tests all of us.
Thankful on this Thanksgiving Day to be part of such an incredible team. https://t.co/YL1wlDwGe2
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104333379289088
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104331928059904)
Body: And so on. In all cases, the pieces for a *good* trade were easy, and the pieces for a *great* one were hard -- when our time is well-spent going for the latter, we're *always* gonna do it, and that's part of what makes us so consistently successful at chasing (and realizing) EV.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104331928059904
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104330485194753)
Body: (So we sized down a lot of our quotes, not just for the original product, solving problems we hadn't even found yet, and also letting us know that there'd probably be even more momentum than we were originally expecting.)
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104330485194753
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104328979443712)
Body: We realized that one product we make markets for was losing $ consistently. It was *really* busy, but someone dug in anyway, and it turned out *this* was the key to realizing how low liquidity was -- we were losing because we hadn't sized down and others could take advantage.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104328979443712
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104327125626881)
Body: With low liquidity, where your capital is matters a ton. With all that was going on, it would have been easy to leave $ be and try to optimize around that -- but we put in the annoying work of manually freeing capital from bad spreads / places, making our great returns on more $.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104327125626881
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104323153555457)
Body: So many other examples! These alerts told us XRP was trading SUPER rich on Coinbase (XRP was *crazy* today) -- level one would be to send there and sell. But that runs the risk of crushing the premium -- to maximize, we added extra edge to improve our average price. https://t.co/TeiQBw9UyL
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104323153555457
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104313800253440)
Body: (And that's not even to discuss figuring out what prices to try to send at, whether to do it all at once or staggered, and how all this varies per coin -- all of which we either studied or gained reps / intuition in throughout the day, because today was so fucking weird). https://t.co/lWjUONSqFg
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104313800253440
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104312235778048)
Body: ... and also how to size that. Turns out knowing *when* isn't all you need, either -- you've also gotta know how aggressive to be, which is dependent on liquidity, which, as we discussed, was super low today. So studying all these things in real-time is needed to maximize too!
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104312235778048
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104310449078273)
Body: So, how to improve? Turns out there are patterns here that, if you put in time to a) get the fastest data b) record it c) spend time thinking about it, you can deduce. So, we did that! And it let us get a *lot* better at determining when to try to buy back after a big crash.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104310449078273
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104307135582213)
Body: What else? Trading in the momentum-y direction is really only half the battle -- you've also gotta exit, since we know that post-liquidation moves tend to revert. Sure, they don't really revert all the way, so it's not *critical* to nail this -- but you're leaving $ on the table. https://t.co/oeUb0S9j0f
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104307135582213
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104305810178048)
Body: Well there's less liquidity so you've gotta be a little careful, but, yeah, this works and it turns out is better than just selling BTC! Of course you can also do both, which is truly maximizing, and also what we did -- trade in the momentum-y direction with the *best* coins.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104305810178048
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104304350511108)
Body: If BTC starts moving (say, down) and I know there's gonna be momentum, I *could* sell a bunch of BTC before the bulk of the down move and do a good job. But if ETH is likely gonna move the same way but *more* ... why not just sell a bunch of ETH? And also every other major alt?
Stats: 9 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104304350511108
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104302517575680)
Body: As I've mentioned, today alts mostly moved with BTC, but their low liquidity + insane OIs often made them move with >1 beta -> so, when BTC moved 1%, often they'd move 1.3% or something (depending on the coin, and also how much got liquidated, it varied).
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104302517575680
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104293021696001)
Body: Crazy days are days where maximizing is critical -- doing a good job will make a lot of money, but doing an outstanding job will make a LOT of money. What are some things we did to make sure we were maximizing? Here are just a few of them which made an otherwise good day great. https://t.co/fpoiw8Ny8i
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104293021696001
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104291394281473)
Body: Maximizing is the practice of taking pains to seal up every bit of EV you can. That's a little dumb since of course we're trying to maximize EV, but it's typically applied to spots where a 50% job is good and where many would stop -- but a 100% job is worth WAY more than 2x.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104291394281473
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104281638354952)
Body: OK, now, what is "maximizing" and why did I claim that's what this thread is about? https://t.co/hYA0vCVZJL
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104281638354952
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104279713214464)
Body: We made those kinds of bets all day and hedged accidental deltas fast -- this mostly just went well. We did a lot of tracking OIs, watching liquidations, and trying to guess what would get liquidated next and when they were over -- all amidst REALLY low liquidity.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104279713214464
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104276177424384)
Body: Most important, though: if we don't know direction a priori but do feel we know there will be momentum, we adopted the strategy of: when markets move, put on deltas in the same direction, wait til liquidations stall for X seconds, and start hedging out. This worked really well! https://t.co/TfQ6Y4lmyk
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104276177424384
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104274218606592)
Body: So after that period, we used this chart as evidence we need to hedge XRP faster -- and that got rid of the issue. We did this across a lot of parts of our systems, and also introduced some new signals into our trading -- e.g. one-way flow in X product -> go the same direction.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104274218606592
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104270062133249)
Body: the market will keep going up. For instance, take a look at one of our PNL charts from a recent 3hr period for all XRP trading. t1 PNL (marked to 1m after trades happen) is markedly / consistently better than t5 -- this suggests the market consistently moves against our trades. https://t.co/fVo3nqLlZh
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104270062133249
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104268656959491)
Body: One example change: we're hedging a lot of the trades we're picking up "by accident" a lot faster. We're making lots of markets, and typically when someone trades against us we hedge in X time. If there's momentum, though, if someone e.g. buys from us, more often than not, ...
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104268656959491
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104267029565441)
Body: All week we've been expecting momentum -- every time there's a move, it triggers liquidations and things are likely to keep going in the same direction. So, we've changed a bunch of our trading strategies to anticipate that.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104267029565441
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104265603502080)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: (BTW, even if you don't guess the direction a priori, there was a TON of OI opened in both directions -- once things started going down, it was SUPER likely they'd keep going down, especially once we got to that local min price.)
Body: This tweet *sort of* describes Alameda's game plan headed into the day. We thought it was probably more likely to keep going down just based on Thanksgiving = no U.S. people to buy again -- but mostly? We expected momentum.
https://t.co/GjIdVH9DeL
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104265603502080
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332104264051687425)
Body: I'm sure it's no surprise that the threads I post here are "delayed" a bit -- the sorts of insights I'm sharing tend to be about what *happened*, but at Alameda we're trying to figure out what is *about to* happen. How did we do that today?
Stats: 9 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332104264051687425
Date: 2020-11-26 23:29:40 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What happened on Thanksgiving 2020?
(Market color edition -- a thread about why liquidity matters) https://t.co/jAAeUi8GA7
Body: What happened on Thanksgiving 2020?
(Alameda edition -- a thread about maximizing)
https://t.co/POuO8KLNdf
Stats: 89 likes, 9 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332059490355531777
Date: 2020-11-26 20:31:45 GMT
Replying to: @apdubplates (Tweet ID: 1332056333676285956)
Body: @apdubplates Yeah it's from calculus :P (or other math that cares about optima)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332055226321289216
Date: 2020-11-26 20:14:49 GMT
Replying to: @apdubplates (Tweet ID: 1332054455718617088)
Body: @apdubplates If BTC is falling, hits point X, and then rises afterward, X is a local minimum. If it's also the lowest point it's EVER reached (over the timeframe you care about) it's a *global* minimum, but if it's just the lowest it reached recently it's called local.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332054750808862720
Date: 2020-11-26 20:12:55 GMT
Replying to: @F1yToSky (Tweet ID: 1332052737480077312)
Body: @F1yToSky Eh BTC had like $2B in liquidations today alone, I don't think I'd call it healthy :P
Without liquidations I think BTC goes from 16 -> 17 -> 16 instead of 16 -> 19 -> 16.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332046235897712640
Date: 2020-11-26 19:39:05 GMT
Replying to: @rugpullz (Tweet ID: 1332045730983387139)
Body: @rugpullz Noted, I guess?
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332041749498273792
Date: 2020-11-26 19:21:15 GMT
Replying to: @alexwlezien (Tweet ID: 1332041289685151748)
Body: @alexwlezien Totally could in theory! I find that vol curves in crypto leave some efficiency to be desired in this regard.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332040745784545280
Date: 2020-11-26 19:17:16 GMT
Replying to: @alexwlezien (Tweet ID: 1332040007582953478)
Body: @alexwlezien Could be more liquidations if someone moves prices a few %, which a) might not happen if people are chilling b) might cause extreme moves if it does happen ... because people are chilling. Could go either way.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036822310895616
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036813272203264)
Body: Really wild day, all told -- and it's not exactly over, though it has gotten calmer. All told? Most exciting Thanksgiving I've ever had.
(Thread about Alameda's Thanksgiving day festivities to come!) https://t.co/mhKoiKCSHF
Stats: 52 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036813272203264
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036811774836737)
Body: And that's pretty much where we are. Liquidity is still low and I'm still expecting liquidations and momentum to dominate -- which direction is kinda anyone's guess, as plenty of contracts are open in both.
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036811774836737
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036809933484032)
Body: Honestly, lots of people who typically provide liquidity have bailed. That caused the downturn -- U.S. buyers out -- but it also exacerbated it, because liquidation engines don't take the day off, and a market order into an empty book is ... impactful.
Stats: 35 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036809933484032
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036806037016578)
Body: Looking at the graphs, it REALLY stands out how momentum-driven these moves have been -- prices trend up for %s, down for %s, etc. Liquidations drive that, of course, but so is another really weird effect -- Thanksgiving. https://t.co/drgJDUKNDP
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036806037016578
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036802085933057)
Body: I'm sure you know where this is going, but that triggered yet more liquidations. Overall, for the rest of the day, that's what's happened -- things have gone up and down, more high-levered positions get opened, more people get liquidated. https://t.co/Bcl0tc5esC
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036802085933057
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036797891690497)
Body: As we've seen, the markets *do* tend to rebound right when liquidations end (but be careful! being wrong about them being over is pretty costly) -- same was true for alts. Everything was stable for a bit, but it started trending downward ... til a new local min near 17200. https://t.co/5Vu3sPUYXQ
Stats: 26 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036797891690497
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036794305576960)
Body: And altcoins? Same move except, typically, WAY more intense. As we expect! Liquidity is lower and OIs are up a lot more vs. typical liquidity, so liquidations are just always gonna impact them more here. XRP was again super extreme -- that's a 20% crash! https://t.co/I5N7wbpJbu
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036794305576960
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036793022091264)
Body: (BTW, even if you don't guess the direction a priori, there was a TON of OI opened in both directions -- once things started going down, it was SUPER likely they'd keep going down, especially once we got to that local min price.)
Stats: 29 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036791151390720
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036787020021761)
Body: Day 1: Asia bought, U.S. bought a bit and then stopped.
Day 2: Asia bought, the U.S. didn't, everything sold quickly off.
Day 3? I'd guess even Asia isn't gonna buy, and that's just what happened -- with markets still up and no "reason why" they sold off 5% steadily, until ... https://t.co/YRXrTAI9b3
Stats: 41 likes, 2 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036787020021761
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036778040070144)
Body: And so, today! The status was: crypto was still up a TON on net, U.S. buyers have gotten less interested in buying, and people have started figuring that out. Alts have picked their beta to BTC back up, and are basically following it, often with >1 beta. Also, it's Thanksgiving! https://t.co/BpM2jtwGBd
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036778040070144
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036776609779714)
Body: Liquidations a) exacerbate everything and b) sort of undo their own exacerbations, because once people e.g. sell into huge rallies caused by buying liquidations, it triggers selling liquidations. This is especially true when there's low liqudiity (for alts, on weekends).
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036776609779714
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036775078838273)
Body: What patterns do we see? Everything starts organic: U.S. people buy BTC, BTC goes up. Major alts that seem "blue chip" lag, those same alts go up. U.S. people stop buying, everything sells off.
Stats: 25 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036775078838273
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036773602500608)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What happened here? Quick thread while I brace for impact, in a way. https://t.co/pP5TmFQWp8
Body: The next day? Same thing, but shifted earlier! People were *expecting* BTC buyers, but the U.S. did not deliver, and there was a *big* sell-off when the world realized. Same for alts, basically. E.g. XRP had a similar but exacerbated graph.
https://t.co/SlpVn7O74X
Stats: 16 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036773602500608
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036771912187904)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: We finally learn what happens when no vaccine gets announced on Monday morning in the U.S.
Body: The beginning of the next week saw maybe a similar pattern -- more buying into the U.S. day (and in the U.S. morning), but it tapered off and everything sold off. As usual, this started out organic and then liquidations took over.
https://t.co/pVPgqJpGqr
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036771912187904
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036770234417154)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Alright, *now* what is BTC doing? Following an impressive week, BTC went up a down this weekend, ending on Sunday evening with a pretty big crash, which we’re in the middle of a (partial?) recovery from. What happened? https://t.co/eU9cT8eleH https://t.co/6XTMMxZS0p
Body: And drawdowns at the end of the weekend triggered liquidations for all -- another sign that high leverage + low liquidity were a lot of what caused the alts (and BTC) to get so high in the first place.
https://t.co/WdUSgDtIKZ
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036770234417154
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036768489607169)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Of the events that could take place while recording this, I have to say XRP going up 25% was not one I predicted. https://t.co/iLh9OowJIK
Body: And alt mania was *crazy*. Major alts spent the weekend playing catch-up to BTC which had mostly rallied on its own during the U.S. week. This might have started as spec that some alts would fit their investment profile, but liquidations made it extreme.
https://t.co/GttYwvlNfg
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036768489607169
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036766912499713)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Hmm, curious about the claim here that the crypto industry is at relatively low leverage -- this is not really my understanding, and recent market behavior seems to confirm it. https://t.co/BccUwec3aH
Body: You could also watch the OIs for tons of major contracts -- for BTC, yes, but also -- critically in trying to understand the alt mania that would follow -- for many major alts. Those OIs were *skyrocketing* once you accounted for all the liquidations.
https://t.co/cAEpEN0Oq0
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036766912499713
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036765549400064)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: So, what is BTC doing right now? I don’t *know* what’s driving a lot of it directionally (I do have theories, of course, but I don’t exactly know), but given that “up” is the direction it’s chosen to go in general, there is some headway I can make in dissecting what’s going on. https://t.co/wjjSI3j5mI
Body: This started as a rally driven by U.S. investors. They and the liquidations they triggered drove things up, but all the while, aggressive, levered-long buying was contributing -- you could tell because of the liquidation-driven drawdowns from local peaks.
https://t.co/chu9cG87fB
Stats: 24 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036765549400064
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036764144345090)
Body: And BOOM is exactly how I'd describe what just happened. On some level, a lot of the edge in trading for the past few weeks was in figuring out how the markets were going to react today. How possible was that?
The lead-up can help us answer that:
Stats: 18 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036764144345090
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036762701447168)
Body: Often, periods like this feel like they're building to something -- it's intangible, but there's often a ton of volatility and then BOOM, something giant happens. The vol doesn't always subside (and once Thanksgiving is over I expect more action). But right now? Calmer.
Stats: 27 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036762701447168
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1332036760939896832)
Body: I'd describe the past few week as *dense*. A ton has happened -- the market's paradigm has shifted seemingly a dozen times, and the sorts of moves we've seen would be seen as wild if they happened in a *year* in other markets.
Stats: 30 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332036760939896832
Date: 2020-11-26 19:01:26 GMT
Body: What happened on Thanksgiving 2020?
(Market color edition -- a thread about why liquidity matters) https://t.co/jAAeUi8GA7
Stats: 366 likes, 66 retweets, 30 quote tweets, 18 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1332017075259207680
Date: 2020-11-26 17:43:13 GMT
Quoted tweet: @Okcoin: Downtime’s are so 2017! In a bull run, the last thing you want is to see this screen. Signup for OKCoin, it’s the fastest exchange to go from zero to trading in no time! https://t.co/mWlPL4V1C2 https://t.co/gRcwOQnaQk
Body: 🤔 https://t.co/zkHNA2KAfV
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331898309405904898
Date: 2020-11-26 09:51:17 GMT
Replying to: @bearhead (Tweet ID: 1331888917046411264)
Body: @bearhead Futt Buckerson you tried your best.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331876789329694720
Date: 2020-11-26 08:25:46 GMT
Replying to: @tztokchad (Tweet ID: 1331873064573874176)
Body: @tztokchad Yeah kinda :P
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331870752216281090
Date: 2020-11-26 08:01:46 GMT
Body: You guys I just wanna sleep lol.
(I'll write up some thoughts about all this later!)
Stats: 47 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331748562720309248
Date: 2020-11-25 23:56:14 GMT
Replying to: @greyswan_ (Tweet ID: 1331721872241795073)
Body: @greyswan_ Possible but the timing makes it unlikely (pops started during US hours for most of it).
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331674428158091264
Date: 2020-11-25 19:01:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331673794943959040)
Body: It is of course also possible all the buyers took a break, bought XRP, and then got disappointed that BTC wasn't anywhere near as fun and apt to move 10% up and down just "like that." https://t.co/tKKzdQr6gF
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331673794943959040
Date: 2020-11-25 18:59:08 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: What happened here? Quick thread while I brace for impact, in a way. https://t.co/pP5TmFQWp8
Body: Update: seems like after this BTC did peter out -- maybe the U.S. people buying took off early for Thanksgiving??? Liquidations then drove it down further from which it's recovered a lot, which is where we are now. https://t.co/FBInRqkQ7M
Stats: 14 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331663769487900673
Date: 2020-11-25 18:19:18 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1331649818201001986)
Body: @SBF_Alameda Let's not get hasty.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331625376578093056
Date: 2020-11-25 15:46:44 GMT
Replying to: @CheesyCapital (Tweet ID: 1331624526644441091)
Body: @CheesyCapital @AWice @SBF_Alameda No.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331624335463702535
Date: 2020-11-25 15:42:36 GMT
Replying to: @CheesyCapital (Tweet ID: 1331624028591689732)
Body: @CheesyCapital @AWice @SBF_Alameda My recent effort has been to get him to chill w the joke "NOT XXX ADVICE"s, they've run their course.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331617943461851138
Date: 2020-11-25 15:17:12 GMT
Replying to: @blue__mount (Tweet ID: 1331616661619806208)
Body: @blue__mango Good q! Probably this tail is fatter than people expect -- let's say we get down to 18k, TONS of levered longs could be liquidated. Could easily trigger a GIANT cascade.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331614129677770752
Date: 2020-11-25 15:02:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331614007501864961)
Body: (OK, maybe we can count on a second thing: liquidations will be involved.)
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331614007501864961
Date: 2020-11-25 15:01:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331613993434136578)
Body: Whatever this ride ends up looking like, I think we can count on one thing: it will be bumpy. https://t.co/jErvD3vRmd
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331613993434136578
Date: 2020-11-25 15:01:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331613991714521091)
Body: After that BTC rebounded fast and then has kinda bounced around -- sorta what you expect if people are now still unsure what the U.S. markets will do today. As I write this BTC actually is looking like it might make another go at that ATH (whatever number that actually is :P).
Stats: 16 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331613991714521091
Date: 2020-11-25 15:01:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331613982944239616)
Body: See, the fast buying was REALLY levered up, as you might expect for something so aggressive and fast. Mostly happened on Binance BTC perps (surprise, surprise) -- once a small drawdown happened, the SUPER levered "apes" got pretty swiftly punished. https://t.co/riQmcGuzOc
Stats: 22 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331613982944239616
Date: 2020-11-25 15:01:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331613981522362369)
Body: Honestly? Yeah, it kinda is exactly what happened -- a SUPER sharp rise to a local maximum price, about 19550. What happened right afterward -- a super sharp drop -- was a result of, you guessed it, liquidations.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331613981522362369
Date: 2020-11-25 15:01:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331613978116517890)
Body: Well, a priori who knows -- the most recent thing we know is a slow rally happened into U.S. morning, at least. What's the next step if we think people expect that?
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331613974685650944
Date: 2020-11-25 15:01:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331613973343473664)
Body: And many others! So even though we've seen this effect previous days this week, the BTC rally during Asia day tells me that it's not clear what to expect *during* U.S. day, because maybe all the impact has happened already and U.S. people won't want to buy!
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331613973343473664
Date: 2020-11-25 15:01:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331613971988709377)
Body: Some examples of trades where this effect happened: Binance listing effect (coins used to pump a lot on listing -- over time the pump happened sooner and sooner til it *dumped* on listing), alts go up after BTC (was true, eventually they started just going up together if at all).
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331613971988709377
Date: 2020-11-25 15:01:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331613970067648514)
Body: This is actually something I've seen time and again -- as a predictable, fundamentals-based pattern arises in the market at a certain time each day, its effect will tend to shift *earlier* as more people figure it out and try to pre-position for it.
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331613970067648514
Date: 2020-11-25 15:01:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331613966422958082)
Body: But let's suppose that the world understands this pattern -- won't it just go up before that? Well, today that *did* happen -- from about noon HK time right until the big crash at the peak, BTC steadily rose, presumably as people expected BTC to get bought during U.S. hours. https://t.co/vKooTLG1mi
Stats: 10 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331613966422958082
Date: 2020-11-25 15:01:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331613964279582727)
Body: Heading into the past few weekdays U.S. time, there's been a kind of predictable pattern. Everyone knows the narrative by now -- BTC is getting bought up by institutional investors and other entities in the U.S. So BTC has been going up in the morning! Makes sense.
Stats: 13 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331604568795348996
Date: 2020-11-25 14:24:03 GMT
Replying to: @AWice (Tweet ID: 1331603490615934990)
Body: @AWice @SBF_Alameda My hobby is buying champagne whenever we have a minor milestone and forcing Sam to give a toast.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331602566384287755
Date: 2020-11-25 14:16:06 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: BTC today https://t.co/YX5YyqCOWJ
Body: The first two replies to @SBF_Alameda's tweet, shit what should I tell our models. https://t.co/lE6OX1mHpe https://t.co/jSFsUuZKs5
Stats: 29 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331601694216519682
Date: 2020-11-25 14:12:38 GMT
Body: So what price are we actually calling the "all time high"?
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331601634057539585
Date: 2020-11-25 14:12:24 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1331600705098924032)
Body: @SBF_Alameda um
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331526322904940549
Date: 2020-11-25 09:13:08 GMT
Replying to: @Kasperbit (Tweet ID: 1331522835341250566)
Body: @Kasperbit I'll try to bully @jackshaftoes into rigging this for anyone who votes for me.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331520853545164800
Date: 2020-11-25 08:51:24 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: The FTX Podcast Giveaway:
Retweet your favorite episode of the The FTX Podcast with the hashtag #theftxpodcast and tag @FTX_Official
🏁One lucky winner gets a full FTX Swag Pack
✔️10 lucky winners will receive 5 FTT https://t.co/g23kkeVtK8
Body: I hear episode 6 of #theftxpodcast is getting Pulitzer buzz. https://t.co/ZL7xpvRfWn
Stats: 6 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331520117545398274
Date: 2020-11-25 08:48:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlenM7 (Tweet ID: 1331519829895995393)
Body: @AlenM7 At the time yeah they were going in opposite directions.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331439969097850882
Date: 2020-11-25 03:30:00 GMT
Replying to: @rsalame7926 (Tweet ID: 1331424874439483392)
Body: @rsalame7926 Seashell on your wrist doesn’t feel like victory.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331263133592109056
Date: 2020-11-24 15:47:19 GMT
Replying to: @maccelari (Tweet ID: 1331262750429904896)
Body: @maccelari Typically alts will move in the same direction as BTC, at least -- if a coin moves .8 * BTC's move on average, it's said to have a .8 beta.
RN mostly BTC and alts are literally just moving in opposite directions (not quite so -1 is an exaggeration, but it's still crazy).
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331261155239555073
Date: 2020-11-24 15:39:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331260965602541569)
Body: Once I get some more free time I'll try and write up some thoughts on the most recent moves BTW, still trying to make sense of everything :P
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331260965602541569
Date: 2020-11-24 15:38:42 GMT
Body: Can't say I've ever seen every major altcoin move with a -1 beta to BTC before, but here we are. https://t.co/7J6Mb39gjZ
Stats: 23 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331255060802592773
Date: 2020-11-24 15:15:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331172038040461312)
Body: Update: we are both still working on it.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331251115136978949
Date: 2020-11-24 14:59:33 GMT
Replying to: @JuliusCrypto (Tweet ID: 1331250794331422720)
Body: @JuliusCrypto @SBF_Alameda @ProjectSerum Perfect, she's selling signed photos for 5000 SUSHI tokens.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331246415956365321
Date: 2020-11-24 14:40:53 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1330970920031117312)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @ProjectSerum I have experience developing the brand for Samantha Bankman-Fried, can I apply
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331198117580980228
Date: 2020-11-24 11:28:58 GMT
Replying to: @sasuke___420 (Tweet ID: 1331193944894423041)
Body: @sasuke___420 @ahmad_alfalasi Yeah can't exactly speak to every person's motivation, but it's not like Trump has actually conceded just yet, and tRUMPFEB did get hit at least on the news.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331178664432549888
Date: 2020-11-24 10:11:40 GMT
Replying to: @KasperLoock (Tweet ID: 1331175700963979269)
Body: @KasperLoock @mikevanrossum I'm abstracting a number of things as "caffeine"
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331172110023106560
Date: 2020-11-24 09:45:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1331172038040461312)
Body: Aren't people tired yet!!!
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1331172038040461312
Date: 2020-11-24 09:45:20 GMT
Body: BTC might have missed its ATH but my caffeine consumption sure hasn't.
Stats: 84 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330954106496716801
Date: 2020-11-23 19:19:21 GMT
Replying to: @sasuke___420 (Tweet ID: 1330934368827707393)
Body: @sasuke___420 Hm not too sure what you’re referring to and I don’t work for FTX — reaching out to support is your best bet I’d think.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330915610457325581
Date: 2020-11-23 16:46:23 GMT
Replying to: @RetailMoney1 (Tweet ID: 1330913027118542853)
Body: @ImUnUrMeNweRall @cmsholdings Hm I think you might be looking at the funding per cycle -- note that FTX pays funding once per hour, most of the other perps pay it once per 8 hours.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330908436544987144
Date: 2020-11-23 16:17:53 GMT
Replying to: @RetailMoney1 (Tweet ID: 1330907285284122637)
Body: @ImUnUrMeNweRall @cmsholdings Hmm what products are you talking about?
I'll note that Alameda's bread and butter has often been delta-neutral spreads and we tend to prioritize not being e.g. short perps that are paying the least ;)
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330900903788826626
Date: 2020-11-23 15:47:57 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1330868309235884032)
Body: @SBF_Alameda Sam's fav application of this is that if you never miss any flights you're going to the airport too early.
Stats: 74 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330898580656119813
Date: 2020-11-23 15:38:43 GMT
Replying to: @ChadCloutman (Tweet ID: 1330898386367651841)
Body: @Bloody__Hard Yep I should have liquidated this watch before COVID went away apparently.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330898350766395392
Date: 2020-11-23 15:37:48 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1330560217524875266)
Body: @cmsholdings Imagine!
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330898122529148928
Date: 2020-11-23 15:36:53 GMT
Replying to: @ChadCloutman (Tweet ID: 1330897772011081729)
Body: @Bloody__Hard Yeah apparently British vaccines aren't good enough for the market.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330897598215909376
Date: 2020-11-23 15:34:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330897291595550720)
Body: Bitcoin got COVID I think. https://t.co/MbOZHKbGy5
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330897291595550720
Date: 2020-11-23 15:33:35 GMT
Body: We finally learn what happens when no vaccine gets announced on Monday morning in the U.S.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330870083225219073
Date: 2020-11-23 13:45:28 GMT
Replying to: @CryptTano (Tweet ID: 1330861679408766979)
Body: @CryptTano @ape_capital @elonmusk Same.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330860986740293635
Date: 2020-11-23 13:09:20 GMT
Body: First FTX lists TSLA and now this, @elonmusk onboarding confirmed??? https://t.co/GIsoZspHVe
Stats: 44 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330778340878237698
Date: 2020-11-23 07:40:55 GMT
Replying to: @BoiRegal (Tweet ID: 1330777934530015233)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Results have slowed down again for the day -- PA and GA are trickling in, but for the most part I expect the biggest changes to resume again tomorrow. So I figured I’d share some insight into how Alameda thought about and handled this wild election (which isn’t even over). https://t.co/e0iZr32GD9
Body: @BoiRegal @SBF_Alameda I think once the results start coming out 538 is pretty good at interpreting them, markets I think were less good at this. See here for some thoughts on market inefficiencies during: https://t.co/punEQoyRSu
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330777363433488385
Date: 2020-11-23 07:37:02 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1330774881449824256)
Body: @SBF_Alameda I'd give the edge to 538 during the election, too.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330776853762646016
Date: 2020-11-23 07:35:01 GMT
Replying to: @resonancethis (Tweet ID: 1330776332649652226)
Body: @resonancethis Yeah there are some good opportunities to put on spreads right now! Not 100% sure why it's happening, something about different demand from different people and not enough volume to make it efficient yet.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330773495253397505
Date: 2020-11-23 07:21:40 GMT
Quoted tweet: @binance: Updates to #Binance USDT-Margined Futures Contracts Insurance Clear Fee
https://t.co/fl2ZDmEmBI
Body: I guess Binance doesn't *like* that they're becoming the new BitMEX in terms of how many liquidations they have. https://t.co/CosIkUSIbb
Stats: 29 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330763327299936258
Date: 2020-11-23 06:41:16 GMT
Replying to: @BoiRegal (Tweet ID: 1330762753972330501)
Body: @BoiRegal What's this mean?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330763284945911810
Date: 2020-11-23 06:41:06 GMT
Replying to: @BoiRegal (Tweet ID: 1330763088405143552)
Body: @BoiRegal Haha I've not heard anything lately.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330762522870235136
Date: 2020-11-23 06:38:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330762414447423488)
Body: Love idiosyncratic stuff like this! And can't wait for the funds to get unlocked soon :P
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330762414447423488
Date: 2020-11-23 06:37:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330762139099824128)
Body: But yeah, this presented a cool, unique opportunity for trading if you a) felt like you understood the situation better than the market b) had risk appetite and were able to sell insurance and c) were paying attention to second order effects.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330762139099824128
Date: 2020-11-23 06:36:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330761909939826693)
Body: E.g. if I need more XRP for collateral for my leveraged short XRP futures when XRP goes up, I'm not gonna send it in -- so I've either gotta buy the futures or buy spot, leading to a predictable premium bump in both of those on OKEx.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330761909939826693
Date: 2020-11-23 06:35:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330761702984454151)
Body: And some futures on OKEx ended up trading at predictable-ish premia/discounts to similar products elsewhere as a result of big moves in their underlyings during a period when no one wanted to send in capital.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330761702984454151
Date: 2020-11-23 06:34:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330761447802998784)
Body: There were lots of other cool little effects along the way during the OKEx lockup -- speculation about USDT maybe being guaranteed by Justin Sun or Tether led to a HUGE premium, and similar for a few other coins. Messed up a bunch of indices, too.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330761447802998784
Date: 2020-11-23 06:33:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330761090599358466)
Body: That's understandable, FWIW! Anyone selling their OKEx capital below fair was just buying insurance, and insurance has to trade at a premium to make sense for all involved. The premium in this case seemed to be like 10% or something, though -- which is a lot!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330761090599358466
Date: 2020-11-23 06:32:23 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: This is actually pretty interesting -- let's say this market does exist. What discount should we be applying to capital that's locked on OKEx? https://t.co/wzMExg1w5l
Body: FWIW, this market did end up existing (OTC and a bit otherwise), usually traded around 80 or so. I think the distribution / cost of capital outlined in my thread was pretty reasonable but the risk of ruin estimate was REALLY high -- I think markets were WAY too low. https://t.co/i9SjRoIADK
Stats: 10 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330571795909337088
Date: 2020-11-22 18:00:11 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330570200492638210)
Body: @InfoCompuCrypto Deleted it and replaced -- fucked up the thread but not worth having there obviously. Thanks for pointing that out!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330571162720501760
Date: 2020-11-22 17:57:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559665013309441)
Body: And it seems so did the rest of the market, because the recovery happened really fast! And not without a dose of liquidating some of the people who got short at the bottom. Finally crypto came together again, and alts followed the same pattern back up! https://t.co/AdSNr8sQ4g
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330570200492638210
Date: 2020-11-22 17:53:51 GMT
Replying to: @InfoCompuCrypto (Tweet ID: 1330568984316448768)
Body: @InfoCompuCrypto Oh jeez did not see that.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330567277566070784
Date: 2020-11-22 17:42:14 GMT
Replying to: @deanrey3 (Tweet ID: 1330566892646518788)
Body: @deanrey3 @iwearahoodie Low liquidity does tend to sort of make big price movements a little wonky, for sure.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330567149400690688
Date: 2020-11-22 17:41:43 GMT
Replying to: @stokasz (Tweet ID: 1330566912330305537)
Body: @stokasz Planning to!
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330560160406720512
Date: 2020-11-22 17:13:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330560151393234944)
Body: Can’t wait to watch the markets carefully to understand it as it develops -- these are honestly fairly uncharted waters even if we’re still off of ATHs, and I expect fundamental effects (SPY), time of day effects (U.S./Asia), and liquidations will all play roles. Stay tuned! https://t.co/FJFYYSUqha
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330560151393234944
Date: 2020-11-22 17:13:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330560149929431040)
Body: Not clear to me what will happen! Had BTC not recovered I’d for sure have expected that, but given that it has … eh, I dunno, we’ll see! Maybe the U.S. investors keep this rolling -- but would it be BTC, or alts as the market’s implying? Time will tell!
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330560149929431040
Date: 2020-11-22 17:13:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559668461006848)
Body: And that’s where we are now -- the markets have recovered a lot amongst a whole lot more liquidations, and we’re basically where we were earlier -- heading into a new week still up a ton, unsure how the Americans who bought BTC up will react.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559665013309441
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559663339831296)
Body: These had a lot of impact, again as we’d expect -- driving BTC to 17600 or so before it rebounded. My expectation was that BTC would probably recover *by* Monday, since I expect U.S. investors will still be interested way *lower* than they bought in for …
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559663339831296
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559661565624320)
Body: Well, some of them were *quite* levered, as we expected, and they entered those positions, in some cases, near 19k. Once BTC dipped below 18200 or so, a LOT of them got liquidated -- again, mostly on Binance and BitMEX. And into weekend liquidity!
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559658281484288
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559656649912320)
Body: Where’s BTC in all this? Honestly, mostly on the sidelines -- in the same way that alts didn’t follow BTC’s rally last week, BTC wasn’t really moving much here -- it went up and down a bit, but nothing crazy. That is, until a few hours ago …
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559656649912320
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559655030837250)
Body: As the upward liquidations finally waned, the alts started dipping a bit … but a lot of people got levered long at the top. You know what that means! There was a flurry of *selling* liquidations a few hours after the peaks. People are getting *really* levered long!
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559655030837250
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559653378310144)
Body: I used XRP as an example, but the same was true across plenty of coins -- and the ones where it was less true went up anyway, because, hey, it was alt season, what, is DOGE supposed to just chill!
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559653378310144
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559651780313093)
Body: A.K.A. the ones that allow all this rampant high leverage! Liquidity was basically at a local minimum, and the liquidations were causing crazy moves. Without leverage? XRP doesn’t move anywhere near as much, and neither do any of the other alts.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559651780313093
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559650312294401)
Body: And there was another contributing factor: it was Saturday! Liquidity is *always* lower on the weekend, but the liquidations don’t know that -- they keep the same size and market order-type behavior. And it was even Saturday night for the non-U.S. exchanges …
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559650312294401
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559648798183429)
Body: The times when you see a super sharp move in the price were invariably biggish liquidations -- and this was super predictable! There was a liquidation cascade, and the size was over-powering the order books -- momentum was the natural expectation.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559648798183429
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559647355322368)
Body: It's been open for a while -- meaning there are plenty of leveraged long shorts from %s and %s ago. And as XRP skyrocketed, more and more of them got liquidated -- Alameda’s got a thunder clap sound that goes off when a liquidation happens, and last night was all thunder.
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559647355322368
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559645530812416)
Body: If you were paying attention to the markets, though, there were a few things it was possible to know. One, there’s been a lot of OI in some XRP contracts (perps and quarterlies across platforms like OKEx, Huobi, FTX, and, notably, BitMEX and Binance).
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559645530812416
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559641936306176)
Body: Zooming in on XRP around 8am HK time yesterday -- does this price action seem “organic”? Is it really plausible that the market decided they’d been under-valuing it by 10% just a few minutes earlier? Thinking hard about it, probably not. https://t.co/6UcaAaCAu6
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559641936306176
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559640405385216)
Body: These sort of cancel out, on average, but sometimes OI *does* get big -- liquidity doesn’t tend to catch up all the way! This can mean HUGE impact from the very biggest altcoin liquidations -- a good amount more impact than BTC tends to be able to see.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559640405385216
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559638912200704)
Body: The answer, as you might expect, is liquidations. I’ve never discussed altcoin liquidations before -- they’re similar to BTC ones, with two key differences. One, OI is smaller, so liquidations are usually smaller. Two, liquidity is less, so liquidations have bigger impact.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559638912200704
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559637440012289)
Body: So, *maybe* this altcoin surge was predictable -- it’s unclear on what timescale one might predict it, but these seem to be the reasons it happened. Why did some of them go up so much? Surely we understand some move -- even a big one -- but this seems crazy.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559637440012289
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559635644813312)
Body: And second, the coins that did the *very* best have a distinctly U.S. bias, and one which particularly suggests potential for “traditional players” to maybe adopt them. These are coins like XRP and XLM, founded in the U.S. and pretty popular there.
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559635644813312
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559631903526912)
Body: And look carefully at which altcoins performed the very best on Saturday. Two things jump out: first, it was major, longstanding alts (not really shitcoins, and not really DeFi), which might logically be palatable to the same sorts of investors indicating interested in BTC. https://t.co/G1ijG10UuP
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559631903526912
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559630376726528)
Body: This is as opposed to a BTC rally which came from, e.g., selling ETH into BTC -- other coins weren’t impacted at all, and no one indicated they were selling them. And this shift meant that these investors are interested in crypto -- why not altcoins next?
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559630376726528
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559628434804736)
Body: This time, some altcoins had a lot going for them, though. One thing which I think contributed is what likely drove BTC’s big rally -- institutional U.S. buyers. This likely represented flow specifically from outside crypto into BTC -- this was their first foray into crypto.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559628434804736
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559624487923712)
Body: What I mean by that is: if it were true that literally every time altcoins lag BTC they catch up eventually … why wouldn’t anyone who knows that just buy the alts immediately? Alameda certainly would, and that’s why we’ve checked :D. https://t.co/f5rZ6e22nF
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559624487923712
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559622952804354)
Body: It actually isn’t quite the guarantee that many seem to think it is, FWIW, if you check the data -- alts often catch up after lagging a lot, but not close to every time. It *used* to be closer to every time, but markets have evolved, and that would be a GIANT inefficiency.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559622952804354
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559621048672256)
Body: One overarching narrative for why alts might be up so much immediately following a huge BTC rally is familiar -- once inflows into BTC are done, alts tend to catch up, especially in an environment where BTC stays elevated. It’s happened a fair few times before.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559621048672256
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1330559616745238530)
Body: Of course, even *more* interesting is what happened to altcoins this weekend -- look at the price chart for XRP! Up 50% on Saturday and then up and down ever since, with other major (non-DeFi) alts following similar (but muted) paths -- what happened *there*? https://t.co/wBODchLjQi
Stats: 6 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330559616745238530
Date: 2020-11-22 17:11:47 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: So, what is BTC doing right now? I don’t *know* what’s driving a lot of it directionally (I do have theories, of course, but I don’t exactly know), but given that “up” is the direction it’s chosen to go in general, there is some headway I can make in dissecting what’s going on. https://t.co/wjjSI3j5mI
Body: Alright, *now* what is BTC doing? Following an impressive week, BTC went up a down this weekend, ending on Sunday evening with a pretty big crash, which we’re in the middle of a (partial?) recovery from. What happened? https://t.co/eU9cT8eleH https://t.co/6XTMMxZS0p
Stats: 69 likes, 8 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330549695614124033
Date: 2020-11-22 16:32:22 GMT
Quoted tweet: @mattysino: New episode of Sino Global's "The Feedback Loop" pod just dropped, in this baller episode we talk with Alameda Research's stud quant trader Sam Trabucco about trading, thinking in EV terms, March 12th, and decision making under uncertainty.
https://t.co/xxpn2P0aVc
Body: This was a fun podcast to record! And I was able to shoehorn in the election, which I promise everyone at Alameda is not tired of me doing yet. https://t.co/rWcrwBc89T
Stats: 10 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330522070657196033
Date: 2020-11-22 14:42:36 GMT
Replying to: @crypto_freddie (Tweet ID: 1330521643395940352)
Body: @crypto_freddie Yup agreed, I think I didn't name PayPal but meant it to be included "in spirit" in one of the categories.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330483660387192834
Date: 2020-11-22 12:09:58 GMT
Replying to: @patrickniddrie (Tweet ID: 1330483210438979589)
Body: @patrickniddrie Yup FWIW smaller liquidations were enough to move things a LOT this time -- I'll delve into why.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330482783521705984
Date: 2020-11-22 12:06:29 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: So, what is BTC doing right now? I don’t *know* what’s driving a lot of it directionally (I do have theories, of course, but I don’t exactly know), but given that “up” is the direction it’s chosen to go in general, there is some headway I can make in dissecting what’s going on. https://t.co/wjjSI3j5mI
Body: If anyone's wondering, basically the reverse of this is what just happened. That's a simplification and I'll write up something longer later, but the gist is a small dip from the peak turned into a large and quick one because of levered longs getting liquidated. https://t.co/eU9cT8eleH
Stats: 36 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330451117168226304
Date: 2020-11-22 10:00:39 GMT
Replying to: @ZeoAira (Tweet ID: 1330448764579024910)
Body: @tradingzeo @SBF_Alameda I've won a lot of races to the bottom.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330441043498569729
Date: 2020-11-22 09:20:37 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: that works https://t.co/uEi3XFpZfJ https://t.co/IJUIJz9Z6Q
Body: Petition for whoever* was involved in the trade that put FTX > BitMEX to receive a Tesla**
* Only if it was me
** I'll accept FTT https://t.co/09VSK46maF
Stats: 49 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330360988445523968
Date: 2020-11-22 04:02:31 GMT
Quoted tweet: @TrueFiDAO: After a successful test loan, our 1st #TrueFi loan goes live with @AlamedaResearch, the leading quantitative digital asset trading firm.
Loan terms: 3,500,000 $TUSD loan for 30 days paying 11.5% APY
Stake $TRU to vote: https://t.co/jnHk0jo7hS
Body: We've always enjoyed our ventures with @TrustToken :D https://t.co/l4TLzhutFJ
Stats: 6 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330337564520112128
Date: 2020-11-22 02:29:26 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1330232237422489601)
Body: @cmsholdings @forkinggizmo I’ll commit to wishing New Jersey used different money than the other states.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330217267926331393
Date: 2020-11-21 18:31:25 GMT
Body: The best tool for staying awake when trading is busy long after I was planning to be asleep is @MTG_Arena and that *is* both sleep advice and gaming advice. https://t.co/jOy21mFRwz
Stats: 23 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1330170541160935427
Date: 2020-11-21 15:25:45 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1330151638452072452)
Body: @cmsholdings It's nice to be an algo robot!
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329939919762952193
Date: 2020-11-21 00:09:20 GMT
Replying to: @svendlast (Tweet ID: 1329935683629297668)
Body: @svendlast Yup we look at all those (less "accuracy" I guess). Timeframes: between seconds and hours usually. Fees: can matter a lot! Esp. make vs. take will dictate sorts of things we can do, like whether we'll enter via takes or not. Directional impact we often try to avoid.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329939578833182721
Date: 2020-11-21 00:07:59 GMT
Replying to: @Jean_Lassalle94 (Tweet ID: 1329927700279144449)
Body: @Jean_Lassalle94 Oh I see -- depends a lot on whether we're MMing for the thing we're talking about, also what our take fees are. Would honestly need to look it up to say more.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329939365028532224
Date: 2020-11-21 00:07:08 GMT
Replying to: @anonmenon111 (Tweet ID: 1329927629349163008)
Body: @vindimenon @SBF_Alameda I don't work for FTX but it seems to me that if he is president on Feb1 then TRUMPGO will settle to 0 regardless of what happens after that.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329937391528804352
Date: 2020-11-20 23:59:17 GMT
Replying to: @blocksoflego (Tweet ID: 1329924637937922049)
Body: @blocksoflego @thalamu_ Yeah when liquidations drive the prices up on X product, it tends to be the case that all the other products will follow it, at least mostly -- sometimes there's reversion after, but not always fully, especially when there's a full liquidation cascade which happened a few times.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329893861452181504
Date: 2020-11-20 21:06:19 GMT
Replying to: @WR_Crypto (Tweet ID: 1329893586565926912)
Body: @WR_Crypto @AriDavidPaul Hmm there have been quite a few liquidations lately :P
It's certainly true that there have been fewer than in March, but the price has also not moved nearly as much.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329892950541697025
Date: 2020-11-20 21:02:42 GMT
Body: @xauilocks For every long there's a short, but it's tended to be the case that the most aggressive / price-insensitive positions are also the highest-leverage. Not always though, and that's never guaranteed to be true.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329892725789925376
Date: 2020-11-20 21:01:48 GMT
Body: @xauilocks Well if it's the case that the inflows are being driven by aggressive levered long buyers, in the event BTC does revert to some degree, it's certainly possible that that triggers cascading liquidations down. All depends on their leverage, which we can't know for sure.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329892325305171969
Date: 2020-11-20 21:00:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329891863440936962)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: So, what is BTC doing right now? I don’t *know* what’s driving a lot of it directionally (I do have theories, of course, but I don’t exactly know), but given that “up” is the direction it’s chosen to go in general, there is some headway I can make in dissecting what’s going on. https://t.co/wjjSI3j5mI
Body: I discussed this at length here: https://t.co/chu9cG87fB -- tl;dr is that U.S. inflows are making BTC go up, and SUPER leveraged shorts are getting liquidated which is driving it up a LOT, maybe even a lot more than the organic buying.
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329891863440936962
Date: 2020-11-20 20:58:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329891607735275520)
Body: I certainly agree with the claims here about U.S. investors being the catalyst for a lot of the rally -- that's been my understanding for sure. But the quite *high* leverage of the industry on average is contributing, too.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329891607735275520
Date: 2020-11-20 20:57:22 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AriDavidPaul: Some anecdotes on where the new money has come from to bid BTC from $10k-$18k. Retail inflows have been relatively muted. The crypto industry is at relatively low leverage. So where's the buying coming from? /1
Body: Hmm, curious about the claim here that the crypto industry is at relatively low leverage -- this is not really my understanding, and recent market behavior seems to confirm it. https://t.co/BccUwec3aH
Stats: 37 likes, 4 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329864511617081344
Date: 2020-11-20 19:09:41 GMT
Replying to: @GoyoDelPilarz (Tweet ID: 1329862686641885188)
Body: @GoyoTrader "Retail" is a little broad -- not sure how to characterize it exactly. Probably the most consistently successful are doing things like careful research into projects to determine the best longer-term investments, I'd guess.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329864173849702406
Date: 2020-11-20 19:08:21 GMT
Replying to: @bullishbtc (Tweet ID: 1329862611974950914)
Body: @bullishbtc Probably a 1/2000 or so day? Alameda was at its literal craziest on March 12, I think, what we did would be tricky to fit onto Twitter :P
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329861414081576960
Date: 2020-11-20 18:57:23 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: SUSHI walked so BTC could run.
Body: I guess SUSHI actually walked so that SUSHI could later sprint. https://t.co/mYFO8oVWA0
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329860879421038593
Date: 2020-11-20 18:55:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329860601116389376)
Body: @WilliamPhan17 Re: not reinventing the wheel, I'd say the culture around this is closer to firms wanting each other to have to reinvent the wheel :P not sure how to categorically change, but my Twitter is kinda a version of that.
Stats: 1 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329860601116389376
Date: 2020-11-20 18:54:09 GMT
Replying to: @wphan7805 (Tweet ID: 1329860129370599424)
Body: @WilliamPhan17 I have a google doc where I note things to remember or do, and I also use Alameda's slack as a version of this since I've found that sharing those sorts of thoughts with everyone tends to be net good.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329857201465225218
Date: 2020-11-20 18:40:39 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1329850201188622336)
Body: @SBF_Alameda How many COVID tests has NIO's CEO taken?
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329847682152550401
Date: 2020-11-20 18:02:49 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1329763381306400771)
Body: @cmsholdings No one wants to "stack bits"
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329842934854819841
Date: 2020-11-20 17:43:57 GMT
Replying to: @KasperLoock (Tweet ID: 1329789280915517442)
Body: @KasperLoock @ImUnUrMeNweRall Should we be?
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329842866504404992
Date: 2020-11-20 17:43:41 GMT
Replying to: @Jean_Lassalle94 (Tweet ID: 1329771555526742017)
Body: @Jean_Lassalle94 1) I don't work for FTX, don't know the answers to these.
2) Crypto markets are always evolving, I would say we've always been adapting to new things -- this is different but analogous.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329842658412351488
Date: 2020-11-20 17:42:51 GMT
Replying to: @jt_btc (Tweet ID: 1329756608813993987)
Body: @jt_btc Fair enough.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329842575776256000
Date: 2020-11-20 17:42:32 GMT
Replying to: @0malc (Tweet ID: 1329702506004320256)
Body: @0malc We've had similar convos internally :P FWIW sometimes our strategies do quite well in low-vol paradigms too.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329842420851195904
Date: 2020-11-20 17:41:55 GMT
Replying to: @thalamu_ (Tweet ID: 1329700905231507456)
Body: @thalamu_ Hmm good question -- I think I would prioritize building similar systems because I've done both and know how important they are :P
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329842063194505217
Date: 2020-11-20 17:40:29 GMT
Replying to: @thalamu_ (Tweet ID: 1329679241898704896)
Body: @thalamu_ @WilliamPhan17 Eh depends, we'll tend to re-evaluate how things are going in the market really recently and kill something if it's either going badly or we expect it to start (like maybe we had something that worked for BCH pre-fork and we'll expect it to stop after the fork).
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329841508778876929
Date: 2020-11-20 17:38:17 GMT
Replying to: @0malc (Tweet ID: 1329628662719627265)
Body: @0malc We have pnl reports to various marks split up across a million different groups of trades -- underlying, exchange etc. as you'd guess, and then like "trades when condition X was true" type reports to try to attribute certain trades to certain strategies / param changes.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329841248400621570
Date: 2020-11-20 17:37:15 GMT
Replying to: @0malc (Tweet ID: 1329627947687235586)
Body: @0malc Right -- if it's something we're gonna do 100s of times we'll often test which works better, it's more of a one-off it'll typically be based on trader intuition about what's best.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329840962617495552
Date: 2020-11-20 17:36:07 GMT
Body: @chrisckwong821 Nothing I can think of that's super systematic, but more idiosyncratic things we have bet on (sometimes there are paradigms when US or Asia is more volatile or we expect some news will affect the markets in X ways when US wakes up on Monday or whatever).
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329840617594077188
Date: 2020-11-20 17:34:45 GMT
Replying to: @milkyway16eth (Tweet ID: 1329618344291561472)
Body: @vallard14 Yeah pros and cons to either -- on some level cexes offer more privacy to a large firm whose positions some of whose positions you might be able to guess.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329618716024213504
Date: 2020-11-20 02:52:59 GMT
Replying to: @0malc (Tweet ID: 1329592058286227459)
Body: @0malc Doing trades that are 0 or -EV for hedging is definitely an interesting topic -- how fast to do them depends on WHY I think the trade was toxic (on an hour timescale? on a second timescale?) and also on how much impact I think hedging fast will have. Less impact -> I go faster.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329618322673991681
Date: 2020-11-20 02:51:25 GMT
Replying to: @0malc (Tweet ID: 1329592474499641344)
Body: @0malc Great q, will cover.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329618262183665664
Date: 2020-11-20 02:51:11 GMT
Replying to: @0malc (Tweet ID: 1329593173346111488)
Body: @0malc We've had both regimes, actually -- we aim for it to look like most days are + a moderate amt, big days have 60/40 split between up a lot and down a lot. But sometimes we're optimizing more for big days than others.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329618031421521921
Date: 2020-11-20 02:50:16 GMT
Replying to: @0malc (Tweet ID: 1329593667418427392)
Body: @0malc Five years ago: fundamentally -- I was not used to making big bets and every loss (personal) felt crippling whereas firm $ was play $.
Now: basically the same (I've gotten better at winning + losing big because I've done both a lot).
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329617668169551872
Date: 2020-11-20 02:48:49 GMT
Replying to: @traderCXV (Tweet ID: 1329598151410417667)
Body: @traderCXV Probably not handling tail risk correctly -- the sorts of tails in the crypto market are Weird.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329617514087661570
Date: 2020-11-20 02:48:13 GMT
Replying to: @0xJMOZ (Tweet ID: 1329603309624127489)
Body: @jwmoz Like a lot of startups, in an apartment.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329617360014041089
Date: 2020-11-20 02:47:36 GMT
Replying to: @brianbickell (Tweet ID: 1329616442354970626)
Body: @brianbickell Not really my forte -- I tend to be in and out of most trades within hours. Something long-term probably wants to be simple, though.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329617165603880961
Date: 2020-11-20 02:46:50 GMT
Replying to: @robertleifke (Tweet ID: 1329614553802477569)
Body: @RobertLeifke One of many options.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329590586869833728
Date: 2020-11-20 01:01:13 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1329590002460737540)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @Nishad__Singh @JeffChenWrites No but I'm glad you asked! That was February 5 2017, which is actually also one of my favorites of mine (the theme anyway, it was my first Sunday grid and in retrospect it's kinda bad barring SEXILE).
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329589825368850433
Date: 2020-11-20 00:58:11 GMT
Replying to: @Nishad__Singh (Tweet ID: 1329588550241697792)
Body: @Nishad__Singh I love the February 23, 2017 NYT by @JeffChenWrites (bunch of others too, that one sprang to mind tho). Re: my own, I have a soft spot for the August 4 2018 NYT.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329581616046301186
Date: 2020-11-20 00:25:34 GMT
Replying to: @tztokchad (Tweet ID: 1329581348877725697)
Body: @tztokchad Yeah, not sure! Could be, could be that vol lately has actually outpaced historical averages.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329579970125996033
Date: 2020-11-20 00:19:01 GMT
Replying to: @Theptilla (Tweet ID: 1329579564511727618)
Body: @BlakeyGamze @SBF_Alameda Yeah the relationship between risk tolerance and age is cool -- and really it should be vs. like, "number of years you want to keep working" or something
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329579430621048832
Date: 2020-11-20 00:16:53 GMT
Replying to: @tztokchad (Tweet ID: 1329563952871829507)
Body: @tztokchad Oh sorry misread you, yep.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329579340099592192
Date: 2020-11-20 00:16:31 GMT
Replying to: @zyefy (Tweet ID: 1329558679280971776)
Body: @zyefy Lots of things are obvious -- someone notices a typo or a clearly bad position of param or whatever. Many are based on intuition -- I know based on experience it's likely we're now in X paradigm. Some things are automated -- e.g. we might automate edge requirements based on vol.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329579055771918337
Date: 2020-11-20 00:15:23 GMT
Replying to: @zyefy (Tweet ID: 1329558227822862336)
Body: @zyefy Can be either depending.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329557094220013569
Date: 2020-11-19 22:48:07 GMT
Replying to: @zyefy (Tweet ID: 1329538241876267008)
Body: @zyefy Engineers generally won't be trading (on purpose anyway :P) though some would prob be fairly good if they learned -- we've been kinda dev-crunched, so some traders do touch lower-level code.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329556767450173440
Date: 2020-11-19 22:46:49 GMT
Replying to: @zyefy (Tweet ID: 1329537515007578112)
Body: @zyefy Will probably discuss some things related to this soon, we test out a lot of possibilities a priori and also in actual trading and see what works best in general, but it varies per knob we're turning.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329556557290299394
Date: 2020-11-19 22:45:59 GMT
Replying to: @zyefy (Tweet ID: 1329534872956727296)
Body: @zyefy a) centralized mostly but we PNL things as separately as possible given that
b) yeah this is kinda tricky to get right since it's sometimes hard to attribute trades independently -- things like "PNL right after button X was pushed" kinda work
c) inconsistently, depends on strat
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329532287734607872
Date: 2020-11-19 21:09:33 GMT
Replying to: @chickenpie347 (Tweet ID: 1329528335358074881)
Body: @98farhan94 If you'd told me 3 months ago how much time Alameda would be spending on DeFi I'd not have believed you, so I don't think my decade-out predictions about it will be very good.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329532045014384640
Date: 2020-11-19 21:08:35 GMT
Replying to: @zyefy (Tweet ID: 1329527726307385346)
Body: @zyefy I'm not the best to speak in detail about the lower-level details about our bots and whatnot, but might see if someone else is interested. Traders here range from spending a bit of time using Python notebooks to spending most of their time doing data analysis etc.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329531737601306624
Date: 2020-11-19 21:07:22 GMT
Replying to: @zyefy (Tweet ID: 1329527493259264000)
Body: @zyefy Yes, good topics, will do.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329531542633209857
Date: 2020-11-19 21:06:35 GMT
Replying to: @draculassi (Tweet ID: 1329522258449211396)
Body: @draculassi @rsalame7926
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329521571937992704
Date: 2020-11-19 20:26:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329521357504147457)
Body: @ImUnUrMeNweRall Like WAY too into google docs — “meetings” are often actually just exchanges of google docs.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329521183528689664
Date: 2020-11-19 20:25:26 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1329511389766021123)
Body: @cmsholdings Every day we take turns choosing, and if your token goes back up then you’re fired.
Stats: 38 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329520909619662848
Date: 2020-11-19 20:24:20 GMT
Replying to: @web3tokenomics (Tweet ID: 1329510959124271105)
Body: @hmazawi Hedging philosophy is a good topic!
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329520822990508032
Date: 2020-11-19 20:24:00 GMT
Replying to: @tztokchad (Tweet ID: 1329506294793957381)
Body: @tztokchad IV from where?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329510336622313473
Date: 2020-11-19 19:42:20 GMT
Replying to: @mattysino (Tweet ID: 1329505955269144576)
Body: @mattysino Ugh I hate twitter lol, followed.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329505010804158465
Date: 2020-11-19 19:21:10 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329503471641403392)
Body: @mattysino (Free free to DM me BTW)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329503471641403392
Date: 2020-11-19 19:15:03 GMT
Replying to: @mattysino (Tweet ID: 1329500708471676930)
Body: @mattysino Sure!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329503265323577346
Date: 2020-11-19 19:14:14 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1329468613955362821)
Body: @cmsholdings Having trouble parsing these as opposites.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329492365833248768
Date: 2020-11-19 18:30:55 GMT
Replying to: @frankthespankt1 (Tweet ID: 1329484898420350976)
Body: @frankthespankt1 Still not too many! Like 7 or 8? Why’s it seem like it’s gone up?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329482685962543105
Date: 2020-11-19 17:52:27 GMT
Replying to: @yothisisocir (Tweet ID: 1329481679535173632)
Body: @yothisisocir @mrjasonchoi This mean like: bear/bull, defi/btc, etc.?
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329465464796246016
Date: 2020-11-19 16:44:01 GMT
Replying to: @Kannumehta750 (Tweet ID: 1329465031835213824)
Body: @Malikasethi2 @cmsholdings Believe it.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329464643086069763
Date: 2020-11-19 16:40:45 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1329464264130785283)
Body: @cmsholdings Good content.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329462473745985536
Date: 2020-11-19 16:32:08 GMT
Replying to: @frankthespankt1 (Tweet ID: 1329459506322010115)
Body: @frankthespankt1 Never.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329459000916762627
Date: 2020-11-19 16:18:20 GMT
Replying to: @frankthespankt1 (Tweet ID: 1329458582069407745)
Body: @frankthespankt1 I hear he owns a table tennis center there!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329458436300476421
Date: 2020-11-19 16:16:06 GMT
Replying to: @frankthespankt1 (Tweet ID: 1329456961700683776)
Body: @frankthespankt1 He rejected a puzzle I wrote once because it contained the term KISS ASS, and he changed my clue for the word LUMEN to be not about XLM in a puzzle I had come out a few years ago.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329458169966432259
Date: 2020-11-19 16:15:02 GMT
Replying to: @frankthespankt1 (Tweet ID: 1329456738597277698)
Body: @frankthespankt1 Yeah typically it's much more trading intuition from being so active in the markets motivates a study and we usually just use pretty basic techniques to test it, doesn't tend to get much more involved than regressions.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329457871382253574
Date: 2020-11-19 16:13:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329457742470328320)
Body: @WilliamPhan17 Leveraging the info I get from paying so much attention to trading day-to-day is a great help for this, and using the intuition I develop along the way.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329457742470328320
Date: 2020-11-19 16:13:20 GMT
Replying to: @wphan7805 (Tweet ID: 1329456276355633154)
Body: @WilliamPhan17 Yeah be really careful about this! Especially avoid doing things like fitting from old data and testing on newer data, the crypto markets evolve fast. Often I don't wanna use data more than a few weeks old for testing some things because I know the mkt has changed.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329455872498683905
Date: 2020-11-19 16:05:54 GMT
Replying to: @BossBabyCrypto (Tweet ID: 1329453831818792963)
Body: @BossBabyCrypto 1) For the record, I don't have any special info about FTX, and Alameda does not get any special treatment
2) That said, obviously the optics are weird -- I think if people trust 1) it shouldn't be a problem and I can keep promising 1), but people will believe what they want :P
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329455279050723334
Date: 2020-11-19 16:03:33 GMT
Replying to: @0xRezan (Tweet ID: 1329452192256970756)
Body: @0xdead_c0de Technically it's basically all via API, as we have internal "manual" trading pages which use the APIs. Even then, when I personally want to put on a "manual" delta, really I just tell the bot "buy XX of coin YY" and it finds the most efficient way to do that.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329448748943085574
Date: 2020-11-19 15:37:36 GMT
Replying to: @WR_Crypto (Tweet ID: 1329445385941770240)
Body: @WR_Crypto Oh yeah I've def never talked about how our bots work execution-wise, that's a good topic.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329442331829932039
Date: 2020-11-19 15:12:06 GMT
Replying to: @MarketsMaven (Tweet ID: 1329440903656771586)
Body: @MarketsMaven @cmsholdings There are more like ripples :P
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329442231657304067
Date: 2020-11-19 15:11:42 GMT
Replying to: @taipannoble1 (Tweet ID: 1329439382189826049)
Body: @taipannoble1 Not really the kind of thing I've ever used.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329438068189908998
Date: 2020-11-19 14:55:09 GMT
Replying to: @tradebutwhy (Tweet ID: 1329437761011650562)
Body: @tradebutwhy It causes ETH to be out of line pretty often on Bitfinex, someone does some pretty "aggressive" things which tend to overpower short-term liquidity.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329436375284916225
Date: 2020-11-19 14:48:26 GMT
Replying to: @geenty (Tweet ID: 1329435713927073794)
Body: @geenty @mapochamp @cubantobacco TBH yeah Magic is a pretty good game for this xD @SBF_Alameda and I both play a lot.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329436248688234498
Date: 2020-11-19 14:47:56 GMT
Replying to: @retiredacc1 (Tweet ID: 1329435570255310858)
Body: @notreallyleg Def in it for the love of the game, can't imagine not doing this in the short-term, and I've been super wrong about all my 2+ year predictions for where my life will be, so I don't really bother guessing anymore.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329436039228895241
Date: 2020-11-19 14:47:06 GMT
Replying to: @Atoughtree (Tweet ID: 1329435170324287488)
Body: @Atoughtree We def spend time training people (on our systems, getting used to the crypto markets specifically) but we do tend to hire people with quant trading experience.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329434323586600972
Date: 2020-11-19 14:40:17 GMT
Replying to: @retiredacc1 (Tweet ID: 1329433582780157956)
Body: @notreallyleg Ah yes DeFi, the most traditional market.
The answer to this is a little ambiguous, I guess, but definitely not a ton.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329434130669572105
Date: 2020-11-19 14:39:31 GMT
Replying to: @tradebutwhy (Tweet ID: 1329433563507404805)
Body: @tradebutwhy Ooh these might be good fodder, will think about it.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329432960018354177
Date: 2020-11-19 14:34:51 GMT
Replying to: @nat9crypto (Tweet ID: 1329432809157636101)
Body: @ImagineKing_ I guess so!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329432393330143232
Date: 2020-11-19 14:32:36 GMT
Replying to: @CheesyCapital (Tweet ID: 1329431600745099267)
Body: @CheesyCapital Idiosyncratically!
(I'll try to expand on this in a thread some time.)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329432302414422021
Date: 2020-11-19 14:32:15 GMT
Replying to: @sno_mis (Tweet ID: 1329431578683056128)
Body: @5nomis Not much pref, no -- having experience making the kinds of decisions we do (often fast and based on incomplete info) is the main thing we're filtering for, and quant trading is the best filter for it.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329432106473299971
Date: 2020-11-19 14:31:28 GMT
Replying to: @Alice_comfy (Tweet ID: 1329431289691217920)
Body: @AliceCrypt SAD!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329432019986763781
Date: 2020-11-19 14:31:07 GMT
Replying to: @nat9crypto (Tweet ID: 1329430874476015617)
Body: @ImagineKing_ Would legitimately be hard to say, everyone's got pretty different strengths and those strengths wax and wane in terms of how important they are.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329431567714938884
Date: 2020-11-19 14:29:20 GMT
Replying to: @KasperLoock (Tweet ID: 1329429882938544131)
Body: @KasperLoock Think he was referring to the day when I joined, it was trying for everyone.
(I probably won't go into detail about the real answer :P)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329431385963159553
Date: 2020-11-19 14:28:36 GMT
Replying to: @KasperLoock (Tweet ID: 1329429137174499333)
Body: @KasperLoock I'll discuss this at length some time!
I don't really know how Twitter works but feel free to DM me if that is possible.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329431188218531842
Date: 2020-11-19 14:27:49 GMT
Replying to: @degenalpha (Tweet ID: 1329428987152531457)
Body: @degenalpha It's hard! "Become a robot" is the gist, will see if I can come up with a good framing for a longer post.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329431040788627458
Date: 2020-11-19 14:27:14 GMT
Replying to: @retiredacc1 (Tweet ID: 1329428608574603265)
Body: @notreallyleg Hmm don't want to speak of specific positions we have on, but can discuss strategy we have for putting on longer-term bets some time.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329430875868639233
Date: 2020-11-19 14:26:35 GMT
Replying to: @sno_mis (Tweet ID: 1329427391228293121)
Body: @5nomis Can't speak to general hiring policies at other places -- Alameda doesn't do a ton of student internships, though.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329430733492928513
Date: 2020-11-19 14:26:01 GMT
Replying to: @DenGorbachev (Tweet ID: 1329427192233697280)
Body: @DenGorbachev :D will try to think of some good thread framings around this.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329430646356283392
Date: 2020-11-19 14:25:40 GMT
Replying to: @Royhaxors (Tweet ID: 1329427033324044289)
Body: @Royhaxors Addressed on another thread -- there are other roles at a place like Alameda, and also I can't speak to hiring process at other firms.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329430437941321728
Date: 2020-11-19 14:24:50 GMT
Replying to: @PetitMonthie (Tweet ID: 1329425010365181958)
Body: @PetitMonthie @nightmayoralty An advanced-ish stats class that covers modeling, machine learning (incl understanding both the math and the implementation), other coding, and getting really good at like, MathCounts-level arithmetic (involves thinking quickly).
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329430010600501250
Date: 2020-11-19 14:23:08 GMT
Replying to: @bitcoinyolo (Tweet ID: 1329424761252962306)
Body: @bitcoinyolo I can discuss this some time! Definitely a rich area.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329429885668847616
Date: 2020-11-19 14:22:39 GMT
Replying to: @mapochamp (Tweet ID: 1329424750481989634)
Body: @mapochamp @cubantobacco Playing mathy strategic games (like poker), learning to think in EV terms and to think pretty quickly, and learning to code are all pretty helpful.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329424402748907520
Date: 2020-11-19 14:00:51 GMT
Replying to: @resonancethis (Tweet ID: 1329423598004494338)
Body: @resonancethis Alameda certainly does -- we have people besides traders who are crucial (devs, settlement team, OTC, "ops," other stuff). Traits we want depend, but generally: good at thinking about new things, not thrown when stuff goes awry / weirdly, fits in, cant dive in and add value.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329423967287873536
Date: 2020-11-19 13:59:07 GMT
Replying to: @nayefc (Tweet ID: 1329423111939379200)
Body: @nayefc Great questions, will discuss some time!
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329423836954050561
Date: 2020-11-19 13:58:36 GMT
Replying to: @degenalpha (Tweet ID: 1329423092523753474)
Body: @degenalpha The ego stroke that is "Twitter engagement"
(Also I've just always enjoyed discussing things I'm passionate about, and I would say that I learn from these discussions, too!)
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329423534678962177
Date: 2020-11-19 13:57:24 GMT
Replying to: @mapochamp (Tweet ID: 1329422559239168000)
Body: @mapochamp @cubantobacco Internship at SIG in college.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329423478571761666
Date: 2020-11-19 13:57:11 GMT
Body: @BadgerTC Will try to think of some good framings for this.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329423412423401474
Date: 2020-11-19 13:56:55 GMT
Replying to: @yothisisocir (Tweet ID: 1329422612250783744)
Body: @yothisisocir Will do!
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329422114944811008
Date: 2020-11-19 13:51:46 GMT
Replying to: @nightmayoralty (Tweet ID: 1329421219708416009)
Body: @nightmayoralty Depends! There are plenty of good strategies you can come up with via intuition and just need some basic stats to test out. Basic coding also important.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329421668112973824
Date: 2020-11-19 13:49:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329421484486393860)
Body: @ShadySlimFast OTOH, tilt is a *huge* thing in trading -- might discuss that at length some time, learning to recognize tilt and minimize your impact when it's happening are important skills.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329421484486393860
Date: 2020-11-19 13:49:16 GMT
Replying to: @ShadySlimFast (Tweet ID: 1329419497057492993)
Body: @ShadySlimFast Re: rhythm, yeah, I'd say I sometimes feel "in the zone" to some extent and I can tell that my decisions are likely better during them, or maybe I'm super in-tune with some weird thing that's happening. When someone on the team is feeling that we'll tend to just go with them.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329421134635253761
Date: 2020-11-19 13:47:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329420814949597184)
Body: @degenalpha Culture/strategy-wise, similar, but also some unique elements that reflect things we've figured out ourselves, and also idiosyncrasies of crypto.
Also, re: books, I'm not much of a full book reader -- playing lots of strategy games/poker and doing lots of math did more.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329420814949597184
Date: 2020-11-19 13:46:36 GMT
Replying to: @degenalpha (Tweet ID: 1329419412680499200)
Body: @degenalpha Ooh great questions! Will definitely discuss a few at length.
Re: emulation, I'd say structure-wise we're fairly typical to a desk at other quant firms (like SIG where I've worked, and explicitly like Jane Street where Sam worked).
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329420248110354432
Date: 2020-11-19 13:44:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329420009966170112)
Body: @satsloser (JK, it can affect it on medium-term+ if you're not sleeping as much as you need to, but short-term you can substitute things like excessive caffeine to get you through March 12-14, or the week-long election, or something.)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329420009966170112
Date: 2020-11-19 13:43:24 GMT
Replying to: @satsdart (Tweet ID: 1329418297780088837)
Body: @satsloser Remains to be seen!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329419854869274625
Date: 2020-11-19 13:42:47 GMT
Replying to: @cubantobacco (Tweet ID: 1329417951213076481)
Body: @cubantobacco Good question actually -- we've tried both and have discovered that for various reasons (small team, so much going on that we're pretty resource-strapped) we are not awesome at training people without quant trading backgrounds, so we basically only hire traders who have that.
Stats: 27 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329419549892984833
Date: 2020-11-19 13:41:34 GMT
Replying to: @antonyp22 (Tweet ID: 1329417875250147328)
Body: @antonyp22 I'll write some threads some time on the different types of strategies we use and the forms they can take! We use both of these sorts of structures -- most of our trading by-volume is the first type, but we spend a lot of time thinking about the second.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329419292320833537
Date: 2020-11-19 13:40:33 GMT
Replying to: @bitachon_XBT (Tweet ID: 1329416771309363202)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: @shamziboy I'll write a thread or two about the kinds of strategies we run -- probably most of what we do by volume is fairly delta-neutral, but we do spend a lot of time thinking about whether there are good short- or medium-term directional bets to make.
Body: @bitachon_XBT https://t.co/CNuylZzDdy
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329419194413297672
Date: 2020-11-19 13:40:10 GMT
Replying to: @shamziboy (Tweet ID: 1329416666573312000)
Body: @shamziboy I'll write a thread or two about the kinds of strategies we run -- probably most of what we do by volume is fairly delta-neutral, but we do spend a lot of time thinking about whether there are good short- or medium-term directional bets to make.
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329417607598862338
Date: 2020-11-19 13:33:51 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1329414828641951746)
Body: @cmsholdings Honestly bars/clubs were so packed on Halloween in HK, if we haven't had a 2nd wave from that we're never going to.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329416652421677057
Date: 2020-11-19 13:30:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329416500977954820)
Body: OH or crossword puzzles, besides these that is the one topic I can speak cogently on at length.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329416500977954820
Date: 2020-11-19 13:29:27 GMT
Body: Does anyone have any questions about: crypto trading, trading more generally, thinking in EV terms, decision making under uncertainty, Alameda specifically, or anything else they they'd like me to discuss?
Stats: 129 likes, 12 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 76 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329414366056202242
Date: 2020-11-19 13:20:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329413449797943296)
Body: (To be fair, I'm sure some journalists don't even realize they're doing it ... which is worse.)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329413449797943296
Date: 2020-11-19 13:17:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329412510206763012)
Body: I'm genuinely pretty baffled by how consistently people fall for "hey check out this population density map I labeled with something insightful-sounding" as a data journalism technique. Tried and true, but I'd hope for better by 2020.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329366361374507011
Date: 2020-11-19 10:10:13 GMT
Replying to: @thalamu_ (Tweet ID: 1329315664855633924)
Body: @thalamu_ Posted in the thread!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329366266939801601
Date: 2020-11-19 10:09:51 GMT
Replying to: @franhky269 (Tweet ID: 1329340255690919936)
Body: @franhky269 Noted!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329233220714414080
Date: 2020-11-19 01:21:10 GMT
Replying to: @hopium_dealer (Tweet ID: 1329232676511944707)
Body: @sargeant_squid SAD!
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329222427868499968
Date: 2020-11-19 00:38:17 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: DeFi taking over options in traders' consciousness was really bad for Deribit.
But also maybe it's not permanent. It'll be really interesting to see how they do going forward! https://t.co/4mio4cjQwL
Body: I always like the options OI charts that are just BTC price charts in disguise. https://t.co/q50qTeb9mo
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329210085835296768
Date: 2020-11-18 23:49:14 GMT
Replying to: @isitsafe_5050 (Tweet ID: 1329209757081604097)
Body: @sorecapital @SBF_Alameda @CanteringClark @SBF_Alameda do it coward!
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329209377098584065
Date: 2020-11-18 23:46:25 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1329208549407219716)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @CanteringClark This is like saying that an arranged marriage is better than a chosen marriage.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329201029896781826
Date: 2020-11-18 23:13:15 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1329199749384138752)
Body: @SBF_Alameda Can confirm Sam freaked out after Miami-Dade.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329199100500217856
Date: 2020-11-18 23:05:35 GMT
Replying to: @Mayeyeho (Tweet ID: 1329198720496390144)
Body: @Mayeyeho I agree that liquidity profiles have changed as a result of those and could def be making liquidations have bigger impacts.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329197393007366144
Date: 2020-11-18 22:58:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329197110638505985)
Body: @Mayeyeho In this case I am largely thankful that vol has subsided for a bit and might try and swoop in on that opportunity to sleep soonish, but also I might play Magic: the Gathering.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329190995754323969
Date: 2020-11-18 22:33:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329190481805262850)
Body: @koichims Oh and not sure what caused the initial dip from 18.4 but liquidations were the biggest driver once the small dip happened (thus liquidating some longs and beginning the cascade).
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329190481805262850
Date: 2020-11-18 22:31:20 GMT
Replying to: @kx781_ (Tweet ID: 1329189530860204033)
Body: @koichims Yeah I can revisit this at some point -- my rough sense is just that if there's nothing big going on for crypto it'll follow ES and if there is (such as BTC being up a ton from XXX) then it won't. So when recent news is + for crypto, it'll look like it only follows ES down.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329183554949980160
Date: 2020-11-18 22:03:49 GMT
Replying to: @zackvoell (Tweet ID: 1329154957858234369)
Body: @zackvoell I find it emblematic of something, not sure what.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329183093521956864
Date: 2020-11-18 22:01:59 GMT
Replying to: @sidshekhar24 (Tweet ID: 1329181779987750915)
Body: @sidshekhar24 The exchange APIs tend to have!
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329159249239293954
Date: 2020-11-18 20:27:14 GMT
Replying to: @rugpullz (Tweet ID: 1329159067185672194)
Body: @rugpullz I really like tweeting stuff like this, I was supposed to be trading but writing this was more fun :D
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329158826998648832
Date: 2020-11-18 20:25:33 GMT
Replying to: @rugpullz (Tweet ID: 1329158546974519297)
Body: @rugpullz People always seem to get mad at me personally about SRM and SOL's prices going down as though they think I personally just market sold them all day :P
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329156239838744578
Date: 2020-11-18 20:15:16 GMT
Body: @0xallseeingeye Yeah prob put one too many of each but I liked the effect.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154596397228032
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154587203276800)
Body: I don’t have a strong opinion about it, or about what direction any particular coins are going in the short term. As usual, all I expect is for things to change fast, and for being vigilant / open to considering lots of possibilities to pay off -- as they did here and always do. https://t.co/NM8AXfwxbT
Stats: 22 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154587203276800
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154585651412992)
Body: You can do a deep-dive on some of them and see they had similar liquidation-driven moves to what I outlined here, in addition to broader crypto moves they followed to varying extents. I’ve seen speculation of an “alt season” coming post-BTC -- we’ll see!
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154585651412992
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154584200105985)
Body: I mostly focused on BTC here -- DeFi surged before BTC did and has been muted during the BTC rally, while major alts have under-performed BTC but still performed OK, mostly. Hard to say what to expect from those products -- many are idiosyncratic.
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154584200105985
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154581792604161)
Body: So it’s really hard to say! I think BTC is still primed for a lot of potential volatility if things start moving again, though (as I’m writing this BTC did fall 1%, which actually feels really mundane at this point).
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154581792604161
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154577682239489)
Body: And now? It’s been calm for a few hours, and seemingly SPY or something has taken over again (BTC’s short-term beta from the traditional products has been picking up again for the past few hours, anyway). https://t.co/zB6zIL80s6
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154577682239489
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154576189014017)
Body: (Though there were way fewer liquidations for the last few moves than for the huge fast crash -- as you’d guess, given the speed -- this recovery, e.g., seemed more driven by “sentiment” or FOMO, which is also momentum-y, but liquidations were in the mix.)
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154576189014017
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154574779777024)
Body: And this time, on the way down -- slower this time -- you guessed it, lots of new short contracts got opened aggressively (this is on the way from 18200 to 17400, a few hours ago). And so … when BTC recovered a little, more liquidations happened, helping drive it back up.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154574779777024
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154573445939200)
Body: This sent BTC down FAST to 17200 -- as expected, if you were thinking about what happens after a ton of open interest arises. BTC then recovered some -- and contracts were opened on the way up, and AGAIN it fell pretty fast from liquidations!
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154573445939200
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154571952820224)
Body: (This is rampant in crypto because of popular 100x leverage is -- you never see things like this in traditional finance.)
Stats: 17 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154571952820224
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154570396712966)
Body: So, BTC did fall down a little from its peak, to 18250 or so -- and I guess some people were REALLY levered up, because this triggered a HUGE liquidation cascade. $70m USD of long positions got liquidated on BitMEX alone, and another $70m or so across more markets.
Stats: 18 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154570396712966
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154568853147648)
Body: That led to a spot where, if those longs were really levered up and BTC fell down a bit, they’d get liquidated, too. And the same went for all the longs opened lower (say, on the way up from sub-17k) if things got low enough.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154568853147648
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154566823165952)
Body: Now, you can see BTC leveled out around 17700 for a while before taking a momentum-driven ride to 18400. And all the while, a TON of new contracts were getting opened on all these platforms at REALLY aggressive prices -- buying, of course.
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154566823165952
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154563471917056)
Body: And if there was FOMO, that would get compounded too! Because in addition to organic buying, lots of inorganic buying happened for any FOMOers to be jealous of. This kept happening *all* day -- millions and millions of dollars of shorts got “rekt.” https://t.co/0M5niS1imp
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154563471917056
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154562049994752)
Body: This was happening for the entire hours-long run-up yesterday -- levered shorts on BitMEX, Binance, OKEx, Huobi, etc. were all getting liquidated, causing what were already big gains upward to compound because of more forced buying.
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154562049994752
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154560636555267)
Body: (Liquidations lead to momentum because: BTC moves up, some shorts get liquidated, that triggers market buys, causing BTC to go up, causing shorts to get liquidated, causing BTC to go up, etc. etc.)
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154560636555267
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154559130828802)
Body: Why’s that happening? The hours-long one is partially attributable to a FOMO effect, sure. But both that and the shorter-timescale ones are DEFINITELY partially from liquidations. The BitMEX BTC perps are involved, as usual, but other platforms have seen a TON, too.
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154559130828802
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154557671219203)
Body: Which it is! It’s bounding %s and %s before reverting. Sometimes this movement is over many hours, like the run-up yesterday -- sometimes it’s over a few minutes, like the crash earlier today to 17200. But the moves are BIG, and they tend to compound.
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154557671219203
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154555636973568)
Body: This is referred to as momentum. In physics, momentum is the tendency of an object in motion to keep moving (in the same direction) -- the same is true in trading. If BTC is moving with momentum, then it’s tending to move a LOT in a given direction when it moves at all.
Stats: 25 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154555636973568
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154551987855360)
Body: Look carefully at the graph for the past few days -- BTC isn’t sort of zig-zagging, going up a bit, down a bit, up a good amount, down a bit, up a bit, up a bit more, down a bit, up a bit, etc. No -- it’s going up a LOT (for hours), then down a LOT, then up a LOT. https://t.co/EJS1vIJqxM
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154551987855360
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154550134042629)
Body: So, sure, it makes sense that BTC’s gone up. These effects at least explain why it started, anyway -- but man, it’s up a LOT. Do they tell the whole story? I think probably not -- I think that, as usual, liquidations and crypto’s landscape of high leverage tell the rest.
Stats: 17 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154550134042629
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154546854031360)
Body: (Either that, or, you know, SUSHI is secretly the best BTC leader around -- gold and SPY have both felt a little lacking on short timescales of late, after all.) https://t.co/EHEOw5dL6o
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154546854031360
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154545256079361)
Body: And there are also legit a lot of traditional companies / entities -- banks, hedge funds, random rich people, thought leaders, tech companies, Wyoming senators, etc. -- signaling support for BTC, which both directly (buying) and indirectly (sentiment) influences its price up.
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154545256079361
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154543850930176)
Body: My take would be: eh probably a combination. I do think that Biden’s victory and the vaccines were net good for e.g. SPY which has both short- and long-term correlation to BTC in the COVID era, which contributed.
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154543850930176
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329154541858656256)
Body: So, first off, why “up”? There’s been a lot of discourse about this -- some reasons for BTC to go up I’ve seen postulated include lots of institutional buying, increased adoption, “whales,” outflows from faddish products back into BTC, influence from other markets, etc.
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329154541858656256
Date: 2020-11-18 20:08:31 GMT
Body: So, what is BTC doing right now? I don’t *know* what’s driving a lot of it directionally (I do have theories, of course, but I don’t exactly know), but given that “up” is the direction it’s chosen to go in general, there is some headway I can make in dissecting what’s going on. https://t.co/wjjSI3j5mI
Stats: 168 likes, 26 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 15 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329151416019996673
Date: 2020-11-18 19:56:06 GMT
Replying to: @Galois_Capital (Tweet ID: 1329148680176189440)
Body: @Galois_Capital Yeah I love that example because it sounds kinda genius when you first hear it.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329133153579986944
Date: 2020-11-18 18:43:32 GMT
Replying to: @python_trade (Tweet ID: 1329132633796833281)
Body: @python_trade Yup can also compare to e.g. Betfair to estimate at least whether this contract's price makes sense (not whether the event is fair lower, but that's not what trading always is about.)
15% might well be way too high (don't want to speak to Alameda's exact fair) -- if so sell!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329132277511516160
Date: 2020-11-18 18:40:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329079163425230853)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: A thread about tails -- or, bullshitting about things that no one can really know for sure.
https://t.co/s8C6h4kuKp
Body: @KZD_Greenwalls @python_trade (https://t.co/CNnXg8a8O9)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329131314876801025
Date: 2020-11-18 18:36:14 GMT
Replying to: @mgnr_io (Tweet ID: 1329131168579641350)
Body: @mgnr_io lol
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329130340821082112
Date: 2020-11-18 18:32:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329130138152304641)
Body: As important as getting good at estimating tails is getting good at knowing when to be super confident about tails -- most people are WAY too confident about them, and I’d recommend all the 0% and 100% people on this one could benefit from a little sanity-checking. https://t.co/tHfrdPqdQd
Stats: 23 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329130138152304641
Date: 2020-11-18 18:31:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329130084532305920)
Body: But we’re never *sure* we’re right, and we’re not *sure* about TRUMPFEB, either. Looking into precedent, asking legal and political experts, trying to construct narratives around how likely even people like the Trump team thinks they are to win -- all valid heuristics.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329130084532305920
Date: 2020-11-18 18:31:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129985538330624)
Body: But between 1% and 30%? I couldn’t tell you for sure which is a “better” guess. I (and Alameda) have thoughts on this, of course -- we are in the business of trying to estimate tails, and we think we’ve learned a lot about that from the crypto trading we do all the time.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129985538330624
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129983579602948)
Body: If you told me two experts believed the chances were 1% and 30%, I don’t think I’d be especially *shocked*. Certainly you can find plenty of people on the internet who believe the chances are either 0% or 100% -- I think both of those are certainly wrong and colored by bias.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129983579602948
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129979829882880)
Body: Now, why did I write this as a RT of a question about TRUMPFEB? Well, pricing TRUMPFEB correctly is *exactly* an application of these concepts -- Trump being president in February seems to represent a tail event, one which is pretty unlikely, but like, who knows HOW unlikely. https://t.co/ztCCIHIcBR
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129979829882880
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129978449907712)
Body: (This is similar to something Alameda has done in the past, and the real numbers at play *did* in fact make it such that two traders’ estimates for the tails made the decision for what size / BBO distance to do it for really different -- we still don’t know what was right!)
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129978449907712
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129977183236097)
Body: But if it’s actually 15% and not 3%? Suddenly this trade is a loser, just like the other one. And you’re only getting one data point per month, so how can you make a good decision here?! It’ll pretty much all depend on intuition, and rational people can differ.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129977183236097
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129975874605057)
Body: If that has a 3% chance to happen each time you get filled, suddenly your EV from the trade is 5 * (.97 * 1.5% + .03 * -12% (or so)) = 5%/month = 17bp/day. Still quite good!
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129975874605057
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129974507266050)
Body: Let’s say that it needs to move an additional 10% for that to happen (as usual, this depends on actual platform specifics). If this does happen, you’re gonna end up losing 10% or so (since the product will get back in line) -- more, since you get liquidated at a *worse* price.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129974507266050
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129973165084672)
Body: Seems great in EV! But if this is happening -- isn’t it possible that there are sometimes *really* errant prints? What if I get filled 1.5% away but the liquidations drive the price even further away right away? Might *you* get liquidated?
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129973165084672
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129971751682050)
Body: Maybe! Let’s say you’re placing these scales 1.5% away from BBO, and those scales are gonna get hit once a month or so, and each time the product will get back into line within a few minutes. If you can lever this up 5x, you’re gonna make 150bp / 30 * 5 = 25bp/day from this.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129971751682050
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129970359144448)
Body: How about: I recognize that some product has a ton of prints REALLY far from BBO, let’s say because of giant liquidations that happen from time to time when the market moves a lot. I want to place big scales far from BBO to try and scoop those up. Seems good?!?
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129970359144448
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129968962453504)
Body: (Also, insert something about 100x leverage being almost always bad because then your tails are like, 95% of the relevant distribution and you’re just gonna get liquidated almost every time :P).
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129968962453504
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129967414755329)
Body: A good amount worse! And replace 5% with 15%, and suddenly you’re *losing* money in EV -- and both of those seem plausible to me depending on different market conditions! So you can see that getting tails right can have HUGE implications for what spreads are good.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129967414755329
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129965959344128)
Body: Let’s say you lose 5% in total on the trade if one of the legs gets liquidated (the loss depends on lots of things -- liquidity if this happens, how much capital it is, etc.). If it has a 5% chance to occur, your EV is now .95 * 75bp +.05 * -500bp = 46bp, or about 6.5bp/day.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129965959344128
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129964415840257)
Body: You could look at options to determine what the market thinks about this week’s tails, but then you’d also want to look at how accurately-priced *those* have been in the past. And even still, maybe this week is weird somehow! It’s hard to ever know.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129964415840257
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129963002363908)
Body: Depends! This is equivalent to the question of “how big are the tails in BTC’s distribution over the next week.” You could look at previous weeks to make a guess, but maybe you expect the next week to be more or less volatile than typical.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129963002363908
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129961605632000)
Body: But this is not *actually* riskless -- because if BTC moves enough that one of the accounts gets liquidated (let’s pretend this would need to be a 10% move, for now -- the exact amount depends on a few factors, and also on which exchanges we’re talking about). How likely is that?
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129961605632000
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129960259284993)
Body: Well, depends on how much you can lever up -- let’s evaluate how good it is with different leverages. If you can put the spread on for 5x your collateral on each account, you’re making 5 * 15bp / 7 = 11bp/day on your capital. Not bad, by many metrics!
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129958904528896
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129957524529152)
Body: So, why does all this matter for crypto trading? It turns out that evaluating tails properly has HUGE implications for the expected value of all kinds of trades. Some examples:
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129957524529152
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129956186570752)
Body: And in finance you see it too -- super out of the money options will often trade at really high premia, exactly because people actually *over-estimate* the probability of an idiosyncratic big move, in a very “it’ll happen or it won’t so it’s 50/50” way.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129956186570752
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129954764681216)
Body: This comes up in real life a lot -- insurance is a viable business because some combination of: people are bad at estimating tails for many events (losing a house in a fire, e.g.) and so overpay for it, and others can't afford the total loss, so willingly overpay.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129954764681216
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129953179230208)
Body: On the other hand, an extreme version of a “skinny-tailed” distribution might be a constant distribution -- that is, one where there’s actually just one possible value. Those tails don’t even exist.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129953179230208
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129948968267778)
Body: An example of a fat-tailed distribution might be a uniform one -- that is, where the chances of any event are equally likely. Of course the tails here are “fat” (compared to, say, a normal distribution) because they’re just as likely as the mean! https://t.co/pHcSLnI1u4
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129948968267778
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129945273044993)
Body: Technically, tails refer to the sections of a distribution graph that are off to the sides -- see the attached graphs. A distribution is called “fat-tailed” if it’s relatively “flat” -- that is, if the probability one of its outcomes is far from the mean is relatively high. https://t.co/4GJBLnWGVE
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129945273044993
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1329129943838584832)
Body: Something you’ll hear people talk about in trading a lot is “tails.” What are they, and why do they matter so much? To discuss, I think it’s worth delving into some examples, and why they often come down to making your best guesses about things it’s basically impossible to know.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329129943838584832
Date: 2020-11-18 18:30:47 GMT
Quoted tweet: @python_trade: @AlamedaTrabucco any rational explanations of Trump still trading near 0.15?
Body: A thread about tails -- or, bullshitting about things that no one can really know for sure.
https://t.co/s8C6h4kuKp
Stats: 78 likes, 12 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329079163425230853
Date: 2020-11-18 15:09:00 GMT
Replying to: @IE_Capital (Tweet ID: 1329065861882261505)
Body: @KZD_Greenwalls @python_trade Started writing a response but it's turning too long, will write a thread later.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329054778198958080
Date: 2020-11-18 13:32:06 GMT
Replying to: @fwl2di7cH9nUeHy (Tweet ID: 1329054153025286145)
Body: @fwl2di7cH9nUeHy @SushiSwap Hm I don't think that is true on average but has been true for the past 12 hours.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329052077595652097
Date: 2020-11-18 13:21:22 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1329033639418531840)
Body: @cmsholdings @SpencerApplebau The problem with DeFi is these charts don't work at all for it- - hmm let me check google searches for "CREAM"
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1329051765526827013
Date: 2020-11-18 13:20:08 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: The FTX October Digest:
Also a reminder that https://t.co/OIdUAsX26V has a ton of great content.
https://t.co/ikRSyseEt8
Body: Wrote about Alameda's 2020 election trading in here! https://t.co/i19KRWSfQP
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1328867653868347392
Date: 2020-11-18 01:08:32 GMT
Replying to: @figure31_ (Tweet ID: 1328858794613497856)
Body: @figure31_ Only if you count sleeping as a vacation which some might.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1328866690638114822
Date: 2020-11-18 01:04:42 GMT
Replying to: @Hardwood_ (Tweet ID: 1328865554720055298)
Body: @Hardwood_ Ohh I was wondering how I became gay, this makes sense.
Stats: 12 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1328850926455537664
Date: 2020-11-18 00:02:04 GMT
Replying to: @LeslieisHODLing (Tweet ID: 1328850805139537921)
Body: @LeslieisHODLing Ugh that's so complicated going from 2 to 1.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1328850163637448705
Date: 2020-11-17 23:59:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1328849949467951105)
Body: (In case anyone misses my "trading analysis or whatever"-type content instead of shit-posting, I plan to post a lot of thoughts about what's going on with the recent big market moves tomorrow, probably.)
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1328849949467951105
Date: 2020-11-17 23:58:11 GMT
Body: Also? Totally unfair how bad the $1 = 1bp approximation is getting.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1328768401452527616
Date: 2020-11-17 18:34:08 GMT
Replying to: @jackshaftoes (Tweet ID: 1328765261768343552)
Body: @jackshaftoes @cmsholdings BOO
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1328752241998655489
Date: 2020-11-17 17:29:56 GMT
Replying to: @Mayeyeho (Tweet ID: 1328750511223435266)
Body: @Mayeyeho An important question.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1328738062797422592
Date: 2020-11-17 16:33:35 GMT
Body: SUSHI walked so BTC could run.
Stats: 95 likes, 2 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1328295025302650880
Date: 2020-11-16 11:13:07 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1328152644934885376)
Body: @cmsholdings Fun fact: when TUSD first listed on Upbit, it did in fact trade >$2 (maybe something like $4 at its peak, IIRC -- there was a pretty strong Upbit listing effect back in the day and I think people weren't thinking too hard about it :P)
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1327999924307337216
Date: 2020-11-15 15:40:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1327999806682271756)
Body: @bullishbtc As to why platforms do the lock funding in a cycle early thing -- not really sure, I think better systems exist.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1327999806682271756
Date: 2020-11-15 15:40:01 GMT
Replying to: @bullishbtc (Tweet ID: 1327999068220649475)
Body: @bullishbtc Well in order to keep trading open nonstop without discontinuities, given the way their funding works (similar to many other platforms which *did* introduce* discontinuities) you're guaranteed to get decoupled til the last pre-fork funding gets paid (in 20min).
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1327995503330529280
Date: 2020-11-15 15:22:55 GMT
Body: 2018 vs. 2020 in a nutshell:
BCH fork in 2018: futures expiring early, BSV coming out of nowhere, entire market in chaos as world stares at blockchains and prices move %s as blocks print.
BCH fork in 2020: eh, whatever, ooh look, SUSHI is up 15%
Stats: 82 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1326942970864492544
Date: 2020-11-12 17:40:32 GMT
Replying to: @anonmenon111 (Tweet ID: 1326938136958529556)
Body: @vindimenon Market thinks this is fair for whatever reason.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1326894483091431424
Date: 2020-11-12 14:27:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1326894264555626497)
Body: @rugpullz (I don't have much specific opinion about the coins you named other than they're alts and this is what I expect of all alts)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1326894264555626497
Date: 2020-11-12 14:26:59 GMT
Replying to: @rugpullz (Tweet ID: 1326885184596287489)
Body: @rugpullz I find that when crypto follows news-based / traditional product-based moves (e.g. from SPY or gold) that alts will follow too but with a <1 beta. So SPY BTC being up on Biden's win, vaccine, etc. -> BTC follows with some beta, and alts underperform is about what I expect.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1326884571468636160
Date: 2020-11-12 13:48:28 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1326875243818999809)
Body: @cmsholdings I wish Twitter followers could be used as collateral, I might tweet more.
Stats: 57 likes, 6 retweets, 9 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1326615966193651715
Date: 2020-11-11 20:01:08 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1326510979241402368)
Body: @cmsholdings Unless they settle early on no notice.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1326148179826417664
Date: 2020-11-10 13:02:19 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: FTX has listed quarterly futures on stocks!
https://t.co/JraqRUOoyN https://t.co/54dtLDC1TU
Body: Finally TSLA can exist as the shitcoin it truly is. https://t.co/K8fo9sJdfx
Stats: 32 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1325940774790287362
Date: 2020-11-09 23:18:10 GMT
Replying to: @web3tokenomics (Tweet ID: 1325937197376266242)
Body: @hmazawi Right I'm just talking on average, and this was the biggest outlier I've seen. Looking forward to seeing how it develops!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1325934618642579456
Date: 2020-11-09 22:53:42 GMT
Body: @xauilocks I assure you this is not the case :P
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1325934357291266048
Date: 2020-11-09 22:52:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1325934153183891456)
Body: Shoutout to @Handi50419506 BTW who realized this was happening during my "ugh why is BTC only following SPY half the time wtf it's supposed to be moving with it when there's fundamental news" meltdown.
Stats: 14 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1325934153183891456
Date: 2020-11-09 22:51:51 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Please no one link to any of my tweets about BTC and SPY being correlated in this difficult, difficult time.
Body: BTW, while SPY correlation got pretty shit on the vaccine news, a new contender arose -- gold! For some reason, the world decided today that BTC was gonna follow gold instead of SPY. I was gonna write a thread about it, but I honestly have no idea why this happened -- any ideas? https://t.co/wlhUeU1lrr
Stats: 31 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1325798091543359489
Date: 2020-11-09 13:51:11 GMT
Replying to: @web3tokenomics (Tweet ID: 1325797953894805504)
Body: @hmazawi Evolving.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1325797812445982720
Date: 2020-11-09 13:50:05 GMT
Body: Please no one link to any of my tweets about BTC and SPY being correlated in this difficult, difficult time.
Stats: 30 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1325796585242947584
Date: 2020-11-09 13:45:12 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1325641531479437312)
Body: @cmsholdings i feel like if you change your profile pic it should be required to be the same color as the old one
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1325127767579521025
Date: 2020-11-07 17:27:34 GMT
Replying to: @anonmenon111 (Tweet ID: 1325127506819641345)
Body: @vindimenon @usgoose I'm pretty confident that there was no point in e.g. the past day when a PA auto-recount was >4% to happen.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1325125082771939332
Date: 2020-11-07 17:16:54 GMT
Replying to: @anonmenon111 (Tweet ID: 1325123675335647238)
Body: @vindimenon @usgoose Yup, and they've dropped to 1%, implying people were considering this a 4% update.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1325124885832585216
Date: 2020-11-07 17:16:07 GMT
Replying to: @usgoose (Tweet ID: 1325123283528933379)
Body: @usgoose Tight or not, for the past two days it's been quite clear PA was going to go to Biden.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1325122414720634881
Date: 2020-11-07 17:06:17 GMT
Replying to: @usgoose (Tweet ID: 1325122031650656259)
Body: @usgoose The markets imply some people were in fact surprised :P
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1325121575893360641
Date: 2020-11-07 17:02:57 GMT
Body: Genuinely pretty surprised at how surprised people seem to be by the calls just now -- it's been basically a sure thing for nearly two days that e.g. PA would get >50bp in Biden's favor, which seems to be what triggered this.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324759772248170496
Date: 2020-11-06 17:05:17 GMT
Body: @xauilocks @gross_bit No idea how BitMEX's desk works, but yes I have no private info!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324757506581618688
Date: 2020-11-06 16:56:17 GMT
Replying to: @gross_bit (Tweet ID: 1324754606044295168)
Body: @gross_bit It Biden is declared president by the news sources FTX has selected and Trump is president in February. Though please refer further questions to FTX — I trade there and don’t work there.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324737837313388544
Date: 2020-11-06 15:38:07 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324736499984732161)
Body: @asiahodl @MessariCrypto Also, curious where the claim the election was most bet-on event in history comes from.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324736499984732161
Date: 2020-11-06 15:32:48 GMT
Replying to: @asiahodl (Tweet ID: 1324733288611680258)
Body: @asiahodl @MessariCrypto What does "know better" mean? Also what are "professional polls"? FWIW if you're referring to something like 538's odds being different from prediction markets', it's worth noting that many (such as Alameda) who spent time/effort modeling thought 538 was pretty off.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324735172437188608
Date: 2020-11-06 15:27:32 GMT
Replying to: @CryptosStack (Tweet ID: 1324734422478979074)
Body: @CryptosStack PA is enough without AZ, FWIW. And I'm not suggesting calling PA -- having definitive proof that the number of votes PA's claiming exist would be better before doing that. But most media are being way less strong, and hedging by saying "if their votes break the same way."
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324733671610355712
Date: 2020-11-06 15:21:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324733408124129282)
Body: I'd love to see more people acknowledging where the actual uncertainty is in this election -- and right now we mostly have enough info about how counties will split that it's ALL in how many more votes there are (+ whatever legal shit's gonna happen, but I'm just talking EC).
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324733408124129282
Date: 2020-11-06 15:20:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324733101730275328)
Body: You can still qualify claims about this with context like "...IF the total number of uncounted votes they're reporting is right," which is totally valid. But pretending that Philly's votes will not all be for Biden is pointless (and similar for other counties' %s).
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324733101730275328
Date: 2020-11-06 15:19:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324732645415116800)
Body: Biden losing PA because the last 20% of Philly's mail-in votes being 50% worse for him than the first 80% would be one of the biggest outliers from any sample I've ever seen -- it's just impossible.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324732645415116800
Date: 2020-11-06 15:17:29 GMT
Body: One of the more confusing things to me is how unwilling the media has been to make a claim like "all the votes in Philadelphia are clearly going to be like 90/10 for Biden, if there are actually X votes left there he's gonna win PA"
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324600416366047237
Date: 2020-11-06 06:32:03 GMT
Replying to: @dgntec (Tweet ID: 1324563098947256320)
Body: @dgntec @cmsholdings are you bitter that we're beating you at this?
Stats: 11 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324470409610162176
Date: 2020-11-05 21:55:27 GMT
Replying to: @MikeMcDonald89 (Tweet ID: 1324469757664321536)
Body: @MikeMcDonald89 Maybe after everything's settled! Agree that would be fun.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324465745976127489
Date: 2020-11-05 21:36:55 GMT
Replying to: @NateSilver538 (Tweet ID: 1324457384736133122)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Results have slowed down again for the day -- PA and GA are trickling in, but for the most part I expect the biggest changes to resume again tomorrow. So I figured I’d share some insight into how Alameda thought about and handled this wild election (which isn’t even over). https://t.co/e0iZr32GD9
Body: @NateSilver538 @MattGlassman312 @VanessaSelbst @ikepoker @ericrodawig Here's mine. https://t.co/punEQoyRSu
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324424666526539781
Date: 2020-11-05 18:53:41 GMT
Replying to: @AWice (Tweet ID: 1324422074119548928)
Body: @AWice Most fun I've had trading in ages!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324424604354408448
Date: 2020-11-05 18:53:26 GMT
Replying to: @Mayeyeho (Tweet ID: 1324421026818723841)
Body: @Mayeyeho GA updated down more than once! The effect I think is "claim some votes are uncounted but oops they were included before."
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324424440273268736
Date: 2020-11-05 18:52:47 GMT
Replying to: @htltimor (Tweet ID: 1324419966746169348)
Body: @htltimor What confusion did I create? :P
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324419014349631488
Date: 2020-11-05 18:31:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324418312093093889)
Body: Same story in PA -- if the reported number of votes left per county is correct, Biden's chances are pretty good. But can we trust those numbers? It's causing WAY more uncertainty than % of people voting for Biden.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324418312093093889
Date: 2020-11-05 18:28:26 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: People sometimes complain about paying government officials too much.
Sometimes this is silly. However much the US is paying for ballot counters and product managers for the election, it's not enough.
Body: FWIW this has caused a lot of the remaining uncertainty that exists for this election. How many uncounted votes are left? GA has changed their answer so many times, should we trust their current one? If you 2x the number of votes left from Atlanta, Biden's chances change a TON. https://t.co/DSyMhVgPGU
Stats: 7 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324332237752471554
Date: 2020-11-05 12:46:25 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1324330689098096640)
Body: @cmsholdings I'll never forget what I went through in March.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324286597001433088
Date: 2020-11-05 09:45:03 GMT
Replying to: @Zen_Trades1 (Tweet ID: 1324286192729223170)
Body: @Zen_Trades1 It was easy because it's currently all I'm willing to talk about.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324285920078569472
Date: 2020-11-05 09:42:22 GMT
Replying to: @ASvanevik (Tweet ID: 1324284942570971136)
Body: @ASvanevik Yeah agreed, used that type of approach.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324283506386558976
Date: 2020-11-05 09:32:46 GMT
Replying to: @jay_ftx (Tweet ID: 1324282872639987712)
Body: @sergeypartnered This was definitely possible during, yeah -- would have to check on quantities and whatnot but yeah, markets were super dislocated.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280847827042304
Date: 2020-11-05 09:22:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280769783627777)
Body: Also critical is having models which can easily be adapted once you understand how to interpret the new data -- that lets you make the best trades the fastest, and often being fast is necessary to make money. (Being first to know Trump should be 50%, e.g., would be a huge boon.)
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280769783627777
Date: 2020-11-05 09:21:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280697155018752)
Body: Moving forward, it’s important to be super vigilant tonight and tomorrow as more data comes in -- quickly analyzing whether new votes are good or bad for Trump (and be careful! If he gets 70% of a set of votes but was predicted to get 75%, this is *bad*) is critical.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280697155018752
Date: 2020-11-05 09:21:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280632197832704)
Body: Doing these things can get you a guess for the probability Biden can make up his current deficit in PA or GA or whatever -- and combining all these can lead to a probability Biden gets to 270. And that’s basically it for modeling the election right now.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280632197832704
Date: 2020-11-05 09:21:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280553961447425)
Body: It’s also important to try to understand *how many* votes are still missing, which sort of comes down to digging through government websites and statements and hoping they’re not misreporting (which they might be! Some were before).
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280553961447425
Date: 2020-11-05 09:21:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280482125639681)
Body: For all those, there’s headway one can make by trying to sift through what kinds of votes are currently missing (along the same sorts of axes as I mentioned before) -- as well as if they’re early or day-of -- and try to guess their Trump % based on similarity to earlier votes.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280482125639681
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280395173486592)
Body: The world realized this and TRUMP did sell off -- he fell quickly back down to 30 or so, and then slowly down to around 10 or 15 where he is now. As we stand, the rest of the game seems to be predicting PA, GA, NC, NV, and AZ. https://t.co/q6LAMjpBsD
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280395173486592
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280312524808192)
Body: (FWIW, many places didn’t release data on how many early votes were reported, and some even mislabeled them, so this was a *really* easy mistake to make -- it would have been basically impossible to make *zero* mistakes here, but having a plan and adapting helped a lot.)
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280312524808192
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280311035817984)
Body: By the way, directly trading TRUMP and BIDEN weren’t the only options -- you can imagine that the U.S. markets care about the result, and so trading SPY could be good if you understood direction quickly enough. Similar for other products with fundamental TRUMP relationships.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280311035817984
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280309521657858)
Body: That seems to be just what the markets did -- TRUMP soared into the 80s on FTX amid great voting figures, and anyone not accounting for how many early votes had not been counted would have thought he was running away. Understanding this early would make selling *amazing*.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280309521657858
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280307978178560)
Body: This would all be fine, but if you don’t know it’s happening, you might see Trump doing *really* well compared to expectation -- for most of the day, no early votes were getting reported, and non-early votes skewed for Trump.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280307978178560
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280306325581824)
Body: As it turned out, it basically went: many states released a batch of early votes first, then they released all their day-of votes and almost no early votes for a while, and finally released (or, in some cases, are releasing) the rest of the early votes.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280306325581824
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280304761262081)
Body: Everyone thought the early votes would skew heavily for Biden -- no one knew *exactly* how much, but, e.g., lots of states made party registration public before the election for early voters. What made this all hard, though, was that the timeline of vote reporting was not clear.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280304761262081
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280303192481794)
Body: Every election is different, and this one was certainly no exception. One thing that made this one special was the huge number of early votes cast -- this made modeling a big challenge, and also proved to confuse the market during the day.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280303192481794
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280301745418240)
Body: (Building a model like this also presents all kinds of data issues -- different states and counties report their results idiosyncratically, and doing a great job at ingesting it fast is both necessary and a giant pain in the ass.)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280301745418240
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280300315136000)
Body: It’s not clear the *best* way to do this, of course, and doing even a good job can often lead you over-fitting to data that will screw you. We built one that seemed pretty good, though, starting with priors and updating (hopefully!) smartly as more votes came in.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280300315136000
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280298469691393)
Body: There’s a lot of axes along which we can learn that two sets of voters are similar or different, which we can use to construct predictions for unreported votes based on reported ones. And that can theoretically start whenever the first votes come in -- say, from Vermont.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280298469691393
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280294875168771)
Body: For instance, I didn’t check this, but I bet this map of the % of the population with a bachelor’s degree is pretty close to the same colors as whatever election map you’ve got up right now -- and that’s a pattern that basically always holds.. https://t.co/MHqfiPXpEc
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280294875168771
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:00 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280293507833856)
Body: Some sets of voters are correlated with each other -- this has been borne out before, and it makes good, intuitive sense to anyone who’s listened to the news. For instance, votes often fall along education, race, geographical, etc. lines in predictable, consistent ways.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280293507833856
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:00 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280292077498368)
Body: And it can be more useful than it seems, too. Sure, knowing that X% of a county’s or state’s votes went for Trump tells me something about that county or state -- but it turns out it can tell me something much more important, sometimes -- if I know how to listen.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280292077498368
Date: 2020-11-05 09:20:00 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280290668285952)
Body: So the information pre-election ranges from trash to mediocre. But on election day, exit polls start coming out, giving some better information -- and then actual vote counts start coming out, which is obviously really useful information.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280290668285952
Date: 2020-11-05 09:19:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280289300897792)
Body: This was true for all but the swing states, and even swing states don’t have amazing (public) polls conducted. There are *better* ones, but it still remains the case that there’s just not a ton of money to be made making amazing polls -- so no one does (or maybe no one can!).
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280287673511936
Date: 2020-11-05 09:19:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280284422889472)
Body: Well, let’s look at what data was available about Vermont’s vote before the election. Here’s all the polls 538 was aware of from the month leading up to the election in Vermont: https://t.co/6ZsjZVtsCP
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280284422889472
Date: 2020-11-05 09:19:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280283009478656)
Body: So, that’s the lead-up to the election -- what about election day? The big thing that shifts on election day is that there’s a *ton* more information, and that information tends to be a lot *better*. What does that mean?
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280283009478656
Date: 2020-11-05 09:19:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280281595928582)
Body: (Which, BTW, is often correct regardless of whether you think the markets have information -- if I think they’re too high and will buy from me at any price, I’d might as well move my quotes up and let them buy even higher! This is called “maximizing.”)
Stats: 5 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280281595928582
Date: 2020-11-05 09:19:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280280136388608)
Body: And what Alameda was running wasn’t constant, either -- it varied as different high-vol events passed, and decayed down a bit as it became clear there’d be no substantial October surprise. We also reacted to the markets, giving some weight to them when things moved.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280280136388608
Date: 2020-11-05 09:19:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280278618009602)
Body: How much is hard to say, of course, and the results of the election don’t actually prove what was right a priori -- they *suggest* that more volatility than 538 was running was better, but they prove nothing. Alameda was running something a good deal higher, for reference.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280278618009602
Date: 2020-11-05 09:19:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280276999008259)
Body: Again, Alameda’s sense was that 538 was under-updating -- both for the chance of big news in the weeks leading up (didn’t really happen), and also for extreme polling error which is hard to explain except by “something something polls involving Trump suck" (kinda happened).
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280276999008259
Date: 2020-11-05 09:19:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280275543552002)
Body: The markets represented another point of view -- in the weeks leading to the election, most prediction markets (on FTX and otherwise) were around 35% or so for Trump -- everyone agreed he was an underdog, and the market implied higher poll error volatility.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280275543552002
Date: 2020-11-05 09:19:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280273467437056)
Body: How much should we update based on 2016’s famously inaccurate polling? 538’s model (giving Trump 10%) always seemed to be under-updating on that volatility -- they claimed (and claim :P) otherwise, but our sense was that they were getting the tails of the distribution wrong.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280273467437056
Date: 2020-11-05 09:19:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1324280271508631552)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Great thread from Sam about the 2020 election. I'd add that 538 at least claims they have significantly increased the amount of vol their models are using; see here: https://t.co/ExOj4ztQwZ
...which, honestly, leaves me sort of confused. https://t.co/BQ27DF5Gw7
Body: First, the leadup. I wrote some about that already here: https://t.co/dDyy97pU1v -- in particular, the main question in the leadup was always one of polling error volatility.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324280271508631552
Date: 2020-11-05 09:19:55 GMT
Body: Results have slowed down again for the day -- PA and GA are trickling in, but for the most part I expect the biggest changes to resume again tomorrow. So I figured I’d share some insight into how Alameda thought about and handled this wild election (which isn’t even over). https://t.co/e0iZr32GD9
Stats: 59 likes, 7 retweets, 6 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1324057041137270784
Date: 2020-11-04 18:32:53 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: https://t.co/oCUoi9qvQ6
Body: Contains a few of my brief thoughts on the election so far. https://t.co/RvsQ0hCV1P
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323979276966793216
Date: 2020-11-04 13:23:52 GMT
Replying to: @longnecctrades (Tweet ID: 1323978375246000130)
Body: @longnecctrades @CryptoDale @SBF_Alameda https://t.co/sgcRp5jCyz
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323978080453423105
Date: 2020-11-04 13:19:07 GMT
Replying to: @longnecctrades (Tweet ID: 1323971450634731520)
Body: @longnecctrades @CryptoDale @SBF_Alameda Not with that attitude.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323977755277447169
Date: 2020-11-04 13:17:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1323977665192230914)
Body: @cmsholdings Not sure I care for it.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323977665192230914
Date: 2020-11-04 13:17:28 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1323966947013332993)
Body: @cmsholdings I feel like I know so many county names now.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323912733029400576
Date: 2020-11-04 08:59:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1323911707106836480)
Body: For now I'll just note that this election was pretty classic except with a few idiosyncrasies which made modeling it have the features:
- easy to get close to right
- easy to miss a few really important features which make being theoretically close fairly far away in practice
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323624634466463744
Date: 2020-11-03 13:54:39 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 1) Today, the United States votes on its next president. https://t.co/LOqeXW4neQ
Body: Which one winning would let me go to bed earlier? I want that one. https://t.co/0etQ502MGX
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323312362183520257
Date: 2020-11-02 17:13:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1323312289760473089)
Body: @j_larrieux @mrjasonchoi @thetaseek @NateSilver538 stats*
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323312289760473089
Date: 2020-11-02 17:13:30 GMT
Replying to: @j_larrieux (Tweet ID: 1323293604144709637)
Body: @j_larrieux @mrjasonchoi @thetaseek @NateSilver538 Huge fan of his and his team’s though — def the most stars-literate media team who does election coverage, by like an order of magnitude or so.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323312119970897920
Date: 2020-11-02 17:12:50 GMT
Replying to: @j_larrieux (Tweet ID: 1323293604144709637)
Body: @j_larrieux @mrjasonchoi @thetaseek @NateSilver538 Yup! Doesn’t publish it tho, and some of the results are surprising to me based on e.g. intuition, but hard to say much about it without seeing the details.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323185105574129664
Date: 2020-11-02 08:48:07 GMT
Replying to: @thetaseek (Tweet ID: 1323182930479345664)
Body: @thetaseek Wouldn't claim that necessarily (won't be revealing my fair for this publicly) -- just that using poll numbers like this is unlikely to be good on average.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323179278595354624
Date: 2020-11-02 08:24:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1323178675718680577)
Body: @thetaseek (And this is ignoring the effect of the electoral college, of course, which makes looking at national polling averages even less good.)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323178675718680577
Date: 2020-11-02 08:22:34 GMT
Replying to: @thetaseek (Tweet ID: 1323178296247345153)
Body: @thetaseek Historically that's pretty wrong FWIW -- polls are not especially close to 50% right now (I'm not actually sure where 48% came from, that's not where he's been polling lately).
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323177902444179458
Date: 2020-11-02 08:19:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1323177544653287424)
Body: @thetaseek Building a model for win probability based on polls is quite complicated -- you need to know things about how many people were polls and where, expected error, how correlated various polling errors are, etc. But it's true that polling average != win probability except for AT 50%.
Stats: 3 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323177544653287424
Date: 2020-11-02 08:18:04 GMT
Replying to: @thetaseek (Tweet ID: 1323177286254780417)
Body: @thetaseek Well, like, if I'm getting 10% of polls and my opponent is getting 90%, am I 10% to win the majority? As you get further from 50% in polls your win probability plummets much more quickly than linearly.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323176452095836166
Date: 2020-11-02 08:13:44 GMT
Replying to: @thetaseek (Tweet ID: 1323175367469719553)
Body: @thetaseek Hmm, I'm not sure that % of votes in the polls -> % chance to win the election :P
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323149591903051778
Date: 2020-11-02 06:27:00 GMT
Replying to: @figure31_ (Tweet ID: 1323149327057997824)
Body: @figure31_ lol
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323142452329345025
Date: 2020-11-02 05:58:38 GMT
Replying to: @figure31_ (Tweet ID: 1323142043208716289)
Body: @figure31_ Haha those have been a bit more extreme in the past :P Happened both in late September 2019 (I forget which day) and March 12 of this year.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323141705529372672
Date: 2020-11-02 05:55:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1323141515086946309)
Body: @figure31_ Back now though, I'll probably post some thoughts about something or other once I catch up.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1323141515086946309
Date: 2020-11-02 05:54:54 GMT
Replying to: @figure31_ (Tweet ID: 1323041983984783360)
Body: @figure31_ I did! I was kinda hungover and then went hiking on an island.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322832210487963648
Date: 2020-11-01 09:25:50 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1322797709653278720)
Body: @SBF_Alameda Do you not find my daily references to the deodorant thing funny?
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322233405627539457
Date: 2020-10-30 17:46:24 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: Happy Halloween https://t.co/m4kSGUe5Ns
Body: This year I'm going as a trader who stays at work til 2am. https://t.co/eWYLEHoJPf
Stats: 63 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322165092708831233
Date: 2020-10-30 13:14:57 GMT
Replying to: @elitwilliams (Tweet ID: 1322128926706147328)
Body: @elitwilliams @NateSilver538 @FTX_Official Interesting -- yeah I think there's fairly good liquidity on e.g. FTX (OI doesn't reflect liquidity, if you think selling Trump >15 is good you can do a ton).
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322159483028598788
Date: 2020-10-30 12:52:39 GMT
Replying to: @FUTURE_FUND_ (Tweet ID: 1322158939069440000)
Body: @FUTURE_FUND_ @machibigbrother @CreamdotFinance Wait I thought it was @SBF_Alameda.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322154391219048449
Date: 2020-10-30 12:32:25 GMT
Replying to: @FUTURE_FUND_ (Tweet ID: 1322154014495133696)
Body: @FUTURE_FUND_ @ASvanevik Not going to comment on what we've done or plan to do, but I will note that if coins got transferred to a CEX then it's tough to know exactly what happened to them from the outside.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322153563523411968
Date: 2020-10-30 12:29:08 GMT
Replying to: @FUTURE_FUND_ (Tweet ID: 1322153141572349954)
Body: @FUTURE_FUND_ Err I agree it's possible to have a good picture of what's happened on-chain. But the fact that it is NOT possible to have a good picture of what happened on a CEX indicates it is also never possible to have a full picture of anyone's positions/activities.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322153277018894336
Date: 2020-10-30 12:28:00 GMT
Replying to: @python_trade (Tweet ID: 1322152549084966912)
Body: @python_trade Not gonna comment on those coins or our short-term plans to short, but selling something you believe is overvalued is certainly not the cardinal sin some would have you believe :P
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322152641711890437
Date: 2020-10-30 12:25:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1322152468025806850)
Body: (Note: I am not making any claims about what @SBF_Alameda or Alameda or anyone owns, in YFI or otherwise, and I am CERTAINLY not giving investment advice.)
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322152468025806850
Date: 2020-10-30 12:24:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1322152235661291520)
Body: It's best to avoid making claims based on that sort of incomplete info unless it is itself illuminating in some way -- and claims about owning X tokens on one of many available platforms don't tend to be very illuminating.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322152235661291520
Date: 2020-10-30 12:23:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1322151984531529729)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: DeFi platforms like Uniswap have a ton of cool things going on. One side effect of how they work is that anyone can track various wallets and their activity, and get a pretty good guess about who owns them (maybe they have a ton of asset X which suggests they're entity Y, e.g.).
Body: As I discussed earlier, using a tiny fraction of info about someone's trading or positions can paint a *really* bad picture about what they're actually doing, or what they actually own. https://t.co/gkeDPn51Uo
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322151984531529729
Date: 2020-10-30 12:22:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1322151686153007104)
Body: Also, let's say I have a ton of token XYZ. Who's to say I didn't borrow them? Or that I didn't sell rich futures against buying them in order to lock in a spread, and don't care at all about XYZ?
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322122966394523648
Date: 2020-10-30 10:27:33 GMT
Quoted tweet: @NateSilver538: Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models (it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong), political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the Dunning–Kruger effect.
Body: I think this is a reasonable take honestly -- @NateSilver538 you should put your money where your mouth is! @FTX_Official https://t.co/aJTMj2KggX
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322098235486334978
Date: 2020-10-30 08:49:17 GMT
Replying to: @jay_ftx (Tweet ID: 1322095792384020482)
Body: @sergeypartnered We do sometimes -- we'll often have signals that indicate something's good to hold for like 6h or a day or something, and then we do hold some positions longer-term for fundamental reasons.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322090417165250565
Date: 2020-10-30 08:18:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1322090381660418049)
Body: @sergeypartnered *area
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322090381660418049
Date: 2020-10-30 08:18:04 GMT
Replying to: @jay_ftx (Tweet ID: 1322089978600529920)
Body: @sergeypartnered Yup, I actually think mining dex trading data is a pretty cool are to explore -- but I think it has to be broader than "look at X account of a "whale" I know, draw strong conclusions" to yield much.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322077810848985088
Date: 2020-10-30 07:28:07 GMT
Body: @BBXcom We're pretty dev-crunched so it's not generally easy for us to do stuff like this with new platforms, but feel free to reach out to us via email.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322071266094800896
Date: 2020-10-30 07:02:07 GMT
Body: @BBXcom Such as?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322066753631891456
Date: 2020-10-30 06:44:11 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1322066697935757313)
Body: Only seeing one side of a trader’s arbitrage can paint a pretty wrong picture about what the trader is up to, and looking only at a fraction of their trades is going to do just that. Be wary of making assumptions like this!
Stats: 14 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322066697935757313
Date: 2020-10-30 06:43:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1322066618285916161)
Body: We use all kinds of arbitrage-based strategies like this (some literal arbitrages, some things like “buy on Binance, send to Uniswap to sell,” some that involve holding deltas a bit longer but eventually closing, some hedged futures vs. spot spreads, etc.).
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322066618285916161
Date: 2020-10-30 06:43:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1322066468297531393)
Body: Indeed, great trading opportunities often arise on Uniswap -- coins get out of line there vs. other platforms, and if AAVE is rich on Uniswap vs. e.g. Binance (this happens all the time), we’re going to sell on Uniswap and buy on Binance -- who wouldn’t?
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322066468297531393
Date: 2020-10-30 06:43:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1322066386194030593)
Body: But it isn’t! And while it is true that we have net sold AAVE on Uniswap, it turns out that we’ve actually net *bought* AAVE overall over the same time periods. Looking at only one (or a few) of many platforms does not tell the whole story about what we (or anyone) are doing.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322066386194030593
Date: 2020-10-30 06:42:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1322066302349967360)
Body: For instance, recently Alameda (some of whose wallets have been correctly identified based on some of our idiosyncratic holdings) has come under fire for net selling AAVE on Uniswap. If Uniswap were the only place in the world to trade AAVE, *maybe* this could make sense.
Stats: 7 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322066302349967360
Date: 2020-10-30 06:42:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1322066166685167616)
Body: This is actually kinda cool, but comes with some downsides for entity Y. It means that, whenever they do anything in the future with that wallet, the world will know it was them. Which, again, is mostly fine, but sometimes the world misinterprets what they’re doing.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1322066166685167616
Date: 2020-10-30 06:41:51 GMT
Body: DeFi platforms like Uniswap have a ton of cool things going on. One side effect of how they work is that anyone can track various wallets and their activity, and get a pretty good guess about who owns them (maybe they have a ton of asset X which suggests they're entity Y, e.g.).
Stats: 40 likes, 6 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321878340060340225
Date: 2020-10-29 18:15:30 GMT
Body: @sIushfund Yeah was more BTCMEX this time, also wasn't a ton by volume but lots of little ones.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321851080272015360
Date: 2020-10-29 16:27:10 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321815684846739458)
Body: How did all these people have time to put on positions at prices to get liquidated here, it's been one day!
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321838303008624641
Date: 2020-10-29 15:36:24 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoChris3 (Tweet ID: 1321837448498831365)
Body: @CryptoChris3 @SBF_Alameda The data don’t agree :P
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321815684846739458
Date: 2020-10-29 14:06:32 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: BTC has been quite the roller coaster lately -- just like old times! What’s causing all the BTC volatility lately? Also just like old times, I think it’s a combo of news, SPY correlation, and “weird liquidation effects,” but with a bit of a modern twist. https://t.co/SuTzFxJByA
Body: FWIW this is already getting borne out again today, SPY recovering some as the U.S. markets start trading and BTC recovering a LOT more. https://t.co/IxufSXB4ga
Stats: 11 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321806428433125378
Date: 2020-10-29 13:29:45 GMT
Replying to: @rugpullz (Tweet ID: 1321800710703513601)
Body: @traderftx Yes.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321800415503998978
Date: 2020-10-29 13:05:51 GMT
Replying to: @rugpullz (Tweet ID: 1321779152412958720)
Body: @traderftx Definitely pretty idiosyncratic, sadly don't have any great insights.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321753470169313281
Date: 2020-10-29 09:59:18 GMT
Replying to: @bitcorntrader (Tweet ID: 1321750939401744389)
Body: @bitcorntrader @omidaladini Not sure actually, would have to ask one of our devs.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321750078869008384
Date: 2020-10-29 09:45:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321749460649607168)
Body: @bitcorntrader @omidaladini I'd also like to hear if there's a live one :D
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321749460649607168
Date: 2020-10-29 09:43:22 GMT
Replying to: @bitcorntrader (Tweet ID: 1321748672611168256)
Body: @bitcorntrader @omidaladini Yeah ours is also delayed :P
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321742485509468162
Date: 2020-10-29 09:15:39 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 8) https://t.co/ZcBNEugHhz https://t.co/U897RCKTNn
Body: Shit I guess I can actually trade SPY against BTC now :P https://t.co/rXppeetJMz
Stats: 31 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321738669812719618
Date: 2020-10-29 09:00:30 GMT
Replying to: @ChristianOesch (Tweet ID: 1321737711229849602)
Body: @ChristianOesch Oh didn't mean "hack," meant the current withdrawal block / CEO in custody news (not sure why I said "hack," to be clear I do not believe they were hacked).
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321736238408196096
Date: 2020-10-29 08:50:50 GMT
Replying to: @GermanCryptoInv (Tweet ID: 1321734267794325504)
Body: @GermanCryptoInv @SBF_Alameda I don't tend to expect anything specific -- I follow what the important signals tell me!
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321735068172255232
Date: 2020-10-29 08:46:11 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1321734569834418177)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @spocknimoy_xyz There's only one more besides us.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321734030908301313
Date: 2020-10-29 08:42:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321731321010417664)
Body: Embarrassing typo.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321732650785103872
Date: 2020-10-29 08:36:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321732508791185408)
Body: So, that’s my take on what’s going on with BTC lately (and with the whole crypto market, which has a beta to BTC all the time). Will it keep up? We’ll see! Market conditions change very fast these days, and I’ll be on the lookout to see how they change next. https://t.co/lEKWQLdw7Y
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321732508791185408
Date: 2020-10-29 08:36:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321732447222992897)
Body: (Note: other platforms and products have seen similar changes in liquidation behavior, but none so extreme -- presumably the BitMEX customers spread out, as you can see from looking at upticks in volume on Huobi/FTX/etc., but Binance’s order books were set up for this result.)
Stats: 10 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321732447222992897
Date: 2020-10-29 08:35:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321732370051948544)
Body: And so, their liquidations are having tons of impact! And we can maybe expect that to keep up, which, if it happens, will short-term contribute tons of momentum to BTC’s price. Counting on this effect is risky (people might start providing more, etc.), but it’s worth monitoring!
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321732370051948544
Date: 2020-10-29 08:35:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321732303404453888)
Body: And BitMEX’s order books and other users have kind of “adjusted” for all the liquidations -- smart traders try to provide to errant liquidation prints, increasing order book thickness over time, and making the overall price impact lower. Binance hasn’t adjusted yet.
Stats: 7 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321732303404453888
Date: 2020-10-29 08:35:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321732147716128768)
Body: Well, BitMEX lost a lot of customers recently due to their new policies -- and I bet a lot of them went to Binance. Those are the same customers who gave BitMEX their reputation as a house of liquidations, so it’s no surprise they’re exhibiting similar behavior elsewhere.
Stats: 10 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321732147716128768
Date: 2020-10-29 08:34:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321732078854049792)
Body: The OI went down by $50m! It wasn’t all from liquidations, but a ton of it was. Why are there so many liquidations on Binance now? This was not the case in the first few months Binance futures existed, so what changed?
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321732078854049792
Date: 2020-10-29 08:34:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321731958343258112)
Body: Yes, it turns out -- as now, even *more* liquidations are happening in the BTC perp book on Binance. Here’s one of Alameda’s graphs demonstrating how the open interest of that contract changed yesterday. https://t.co/DFA60Uhf0J
Stats: 17 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321731958343258112
Date: 2020-10-29 08:33:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321731880408948736)
Body: Why is this effect more intense now than it has been? Well, the SPY move itself *was* fairly large, and given the nature of the high leverage these platforms allow you’d expect a lot of liquidations. But 2x the impact really is a lot -- has something changed?
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321731880408948736
Date: 2020-10-29 08:33:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321731711940452353)
Body: During this entire period, there were a *lot* of liquidations -- on BitMEX’s BTC perps, of course (god forbid they get excluded), but also elsewhere. Every time SPY fell, our office’s audio alerts indicating a liquidation would go off soon afterward (it's the sound of thunder).
Stats: 9 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321731711940452353
Date: 2020-10-29 08:32:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321731634387841024)
Body: Indeed, BTC was down about 8% and SPY was only down about 4%. I don’t *know* why this is true, and I do think it’s explained *a bit* (50bp, maybe) by “news reversion,” but I don’t think that’s the whole story. I think a lot of the rest of the story is liquidations.
Stats: 5 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321731634387841024
Date: 2020-10-29 08:32:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321731544877305856)
Body: You can line the downturn in BTC from last night up with the one in SPY from yesterday’s trading day (note that the graph skips over periods when the U.S. markets are closed). But one thing does not line up -- BTC was down WAY more than SPY. What gives? https://t.co/VqvaEj3fvA
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321731544877305856
Date: 2020-10-29 08:32:11 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321731484793778182)
Body: Indeed, recently the markets have again been falling due to COVID (likely because of especially Europe’s second wave of intense lockdowns, and a general sense that things are gonna keep sucking worldwide). Take a look at the graph of SPY from recently.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321731484793778182
Date: 2020-10-29 08:31:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321731404741238784)
Body: What caused the downturn afterward? Probably a bit of post-news reversion -- the general wisdom in crypto of “buy the news, sell the event” or whatever tends to be fairly good. But note that BTC started falling exactly when the broader financial markets did.
Stats: 7 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321731404741238784
Date: 2020-10-29 08:31:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321731321010417664)
Body: So, all these big events caused some volatility, which makes sense -- if you accept that they’re actually important, then they ought to! In particular, all the positive news (and a sort of decaying out of the negative news) caused the runup through the 28th, at least in part.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321731321010417664
Date: 2020-10-29 08:31:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321731277834211333)
Body: BitMEX KYC, OKEx hack caused BTC to go down, Paypal, the Singapore bank, and general “institutiuonal adoption” caused it to go up. Mostly these were predictable and happened over a short time period, and mostly BTC reverted a bit from each of them over the next hours or days.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321731277834211333
Date: 2020-10-29 08:31:07 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1321731228416962560)
Body: First, the news. There’s been a lot of big events recently which BTC (and the broader market, but notably BTC) has reacted strongly to in one direction or the other. This is a real throwback to 2017 -- it hasn’t felt like news impacts BTC much lately.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321731228416962560
Date: 2020-10-29 08:30:56 GMT
Body: BTC has been quite the roller coaster lately -- just like old times! What’s causing all the BTC volatility lately? Also just like old times, I think it’s a combo of news, SPY correlation, and “weird liquidation effects,” but with a bit of a modern twist. https://t.co/SuTzFxJByA
Stats: 56 likes, 8 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321724194199990272
Date: 2020-10-29 08:02:59 GMT
Replying to: @gross_bit (Tweet ID: 1321716123411230723)
Body: @gross_bit @Nishad__Singh @SBF_Alameda Which of them? Regardless, agreed.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321696516638040068
Date: 2020-10-29 06:13:00 GMT
Replying to: @Nishad__Singh (Tweet ID: 1321695831146164224)
Body: @Nishad__Singh Did the deodorant you and @SBF_Alameda ordered finally arrive?
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1321407953203724288
Date: 2020-10-28 11:06:21 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1321405566388891648)
Body: @SBF_Alameda WEST_2020???
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1320695835051479040
Date: 2020-10-26 11:56:39 GMT
Replying to: @Hardwood_ (Tweet ID: 1320688673768296448)
Body: @Hardwood_ @stonXBT @jawnbear @SBF_Alameda @Ariocarpus19 @harvest_finance That's my bad.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1320650783684096000
Date: 2020-10-26 08:57:37 GMT
Replying to: @stonXBT (Tweet ID: 1320647256236699648)
Body: @stonXBT @jawnbear @Ariocarpus19 @harvest_finance @SBF_Alameda For the record, neither @SBF_Alameda nor anyone else at Alameda had anything to do with this -- we've never done anything like this, and never will in the future, either. We support this space as much as you do!
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1320645464593592320
Date: 2020-10-26 08:36:29 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1320641170364534784)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @mattysino @Nishad__Singh Ask him about the time he bullied me for weeks culminating in the theft of $1000.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1319955771224780800
Date: 2020-10-24 10:55:54 GMT
Replying to: @NaiveKrypto (Tweet ID: 1319954048171139072)
Body: @NaiveKrypto No.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1319942066491715586
Date: 2020-10-24 10:01:26 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: Pet peeve about Hong Kong: it's surprisingly hard to find normal deodorant.
I end up mostly ordering it online; fortunately lots of stuff can be delivered here. https://t.co/omP2Th1lYz
Body: I literally bought ten different deodorants and put them in the office and Sam was not OK with any of them -- this is 100% on him. https://t.co/QLmHuouR22
Stats: 43 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1319584819739652096
Date: 2020-10-23 10:21:52 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1319444121518444544)
Body: @SBF_Alameda Why did you pretend you weren't going to make this thread? No one believed you.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1319583661193216000
Date: 2020-10-23 10:17:16 GMT
Replying to: @0xArchie (Tweet ID: 1319533009335320576)
Body: @_ycycy Oh totally forgot about this, my bad. Will do!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1319143997860794368
Date: 2020-10-22 05:10:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1319143764569378816)
Body: Oh I get to pick 5, PHEW
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1319143764569378816
Date: 2020-10-22 05:09:16 GMT
Quoted tweet: @CoinDesk: Every year, CoinDesk recognizes the individuals who make the biggest impact in crypto and blockchain technology.
Have your say here about 2020. Pick five names from our long-list, or nominate your own people.
#mostinfluential
https://t.co/QHMDZxuDWY
Body: Can't decide whether @SBF_Alameda or "defi degens" deserve my vote here. https://t.co/cB4zRbZnaM
Stats: 21 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318928181370388481
Date: 2020-10-21 14:52:37 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1318926287717593088)
Body: @SBF_Alameda You're usually my go-to for weather advice.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318427526675394562
Date: 2020-10-20 05:43:12 GMT
Replying to: @ckgdesigns (Tweet ID: 1318254032478179328)
Body: @ckgdesigns @SBF_Alameda Would you like to make a trade?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318267606214664192
Date: 2020-10-19 19:07:44 GMT
Replying to: @python_trade (Tweet ID: 1318266961579704320)
Body: @python_trade I still managed to be annoyed no one was listening to me, though.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318266638458789888
Date: 2020-10-19 19:03:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318266537275396096)
Body: @python_trade Hard to compare money to something like that IMO.
Stats: 1 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318266537275396096
Date: 2020-10-19 19:03:29 GMT
Replying to: @python_trade (Tweet ID: 1318266305783410688)
Body: @python_trade We lost my voice.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318265084431364096
Date: 2020-10-19 18:57:42 GMT
Quoted tweet: @thalamu_: This is amazing. Thank you @AlamedaTrabucco and @SBF_Alameda for sharing this kind of insight.
https://t.co/iYklOaT028
Body: Been a while since I wrote this but TBH it holds up. I’d forgotten about all the ~problems~ I caused when I lost my voice on March 12. https://t.co/OYsJeEOkQ8
Stats: 12 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318261405385064448
Date: 2020-10-19 18:43:05 GMT
Replying to: @GYotsuba (Tweet ID: 1318242876820656128)
Body: @GYotsuba How much size is there?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318236783147065346
Date: 2020-10-19 17:05:15 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1318234579619241989)
Body: @cmsholdings Contango? I hardly know her.
Did I do that right.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318236032165236736
Date: 2020-10-19 17:02:16 GMT
Replying to: @dgntec (Tweet ID: 1318235039423922179)
Body: @degentec Yep I kinda did this later :P
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318235750891024385
Date: 2020-10-19 17:01:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318235674395377664)
Body: So, if this market does end up existing, I think it will be more important than almost ever to questions our own assumptions really aggressively -- selection bias can be a killer. (And note: I really *don’t* have a clue what my fair is for this right how, need to think on it.)
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318235674395377664
Date: 2020-10-19 17:00:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318235623786860544)
Body: We’ve found that rarely to be the case for, e.g., BTC -- but sometimes to be the case for big shitcoin trades. Selection bias will tend to be a bigger factor the more idiosyncratic the trade is, and the more sorts of things your counterparty could know that you don’t.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318235623786860544
Date: 2020-10-19 17:00:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318235584402370560)
Body: Mainly how drastically fairs change when you make small perturbations about starting assumptions, and just how uncertain those assumptions are for the whole world right now. Information is power here, and a big order implies information.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318235584402370560
Date: 2020-10-19 17:00:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318235535752585216)
Body: On some level, these are the kinds of considerations I have all the time when thinking about all kinds of trades -- after all, someone’s always on the other side of all my trades, and each time I make a trade I’m choosing to trust my info over theirs. What’s different here?
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318235535752585216
Date: 2020-10-19 17:00:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318235433206099968)
Body: (Or, it can also imply that they’re SUPER risk-averse, for some reason, and are willing to pay for insurance -- if I can become convinced of this, or just that they’re wrong, a trade COULD happen in this case, and I think buying insurance is the main way this market will exist.)
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318235433206099968
Date: 2020-10-19 16:59:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318235382660489217)
Body: Either way, I definitely have to consider that this other party has information I don’t of some nature -- and that’s terrifying, so I’m going to have to strongly think about my own information, and likely update my fair -- maybe by a lot! And that might kill the trade.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318235382660489217
Date: 2020-10-19 16:59:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318235310967287814)
Body: And if they have that much money on OKEx, should I be updating toward their opinion? It might imply some probability of them having ties to OKEx in a way where I should maybe assume they know something I don’t, sometimes. Or even that they learned public info faster than I did.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318235310967287814
Date: 2020-10-19 16:59:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318235262225281024)
Body: Do they actually have marginal return on capital -- for any exchange vs. just for OKEx -- high enough to justify that? Probably impossible, even if trading on OKEx totally dries up. That HAS to imply they’re pricing risk of ruin very, very high.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318235262225281024
Date: 2020-10-19 16:59:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318235217786675200)
Body: In particular, I think there’s REALLY intense selection bias in a market like this one -- if my starting fair discount is 5% and someone offers me their entire $50m holdings for a 20% discount, I HAVE to wonder why they’re willing to do that.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318235217786675200
Date: 2020-10-19 16:59:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318235178683097088)
Body: And that’s just one part of the story, anyway -- I think various market conditions should have WAY outsized impact in a situation like this one, and fairs should be fairly quickly abandoned / updated as new information arises.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318235178683097088
Date: 2020-10-19 16:58:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318235086303555584)
Body: Maybe I have some (perceived) information about what’s actually going on with the CEO, and I therefore think that it’s HIGHLY unlikely that the funds actually not get recovered -- my fair discount should then start a LOT lower (much closer to 2.5%). I’m not sure which is better!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318235086303555584
Date: 2020-10-19 16:58:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318235052472348673)
Body: This would lead to a discount of .2 * .75 = 15% from this factor, plus .8 * 2.5% = 2% for capital cost the rest of the time. That leads to an overall fair discount of 17% -- using a TON of assumptions that could be really off.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318235052472348673
Date: 2020-10-19 16:58:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318235011049345024)
Body: It does strike me as not especially likely that cases where funds cannot be recovered, on average, lead to 100% of funds not being able to be recovered -- let’s call it an average of 75% of funds that never get recovered whenever this occurs.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318235011049345024
Date: 2020-10-19 16:58:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318234947409256449)
Body: Is it really plausible that this probability is as high as 20%? Maybe! I don’t claim to be an expert on any of the relevant factors. So let’s call it 20%, again for the sake of continuing (I’m not claiming to believe that’s the real probability, could be way less or way more).
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318234947409256449
Date: 2020-10-19 16:57:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318234890941337600)
Body: OKEx, of course, claims 100%. Again, everyone has their own opinion here about what sorts of factors that might render the funds impossible to salvage could be at play and how likely they are -- China clamping down, CEO being MIA forever, etc. And this probability is critical.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318234890941337600
Date: 2020-10-19 16:57:44 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318234852181733376)
Body: Cool -- so if we know ~the funds are safe~ then maybe about a 2.5% discount is fair, assuming some things about timeline and my marginal returns. What are the chances that the funds are actually safe?
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318234852181733376
Date: 2020-10-19 16:57:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318234814315589632)
Body: That’d mean I expect my funds to be locked up for, on average, .02 * 1 + .02 * 2 + … + .02 * 30 + .1 * 60 + .1 * 90 + .1 * 120 + .1 * 150 = 51.3 days. Since the marginal capital cost is 5bp/day, that should cost me about 2.5%.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318234814315589632
Date: 2020-10-19 16:57:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318234767192510464)
Body: Let’s just pick a distribution for the sake of continuing -- maybe I believe that there’s a 2% chance that the funds unlock each day for the next month, and then a 10% chance that they unlock at the end of each of the following four months.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318234767192510464
Date: 2020-10-19 16:57:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318234725849329674)
Body: (That’s true for pricing almost any asset over any time period, though, which is the basis of the existence of trading :D)
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318234725849329674
Date: 2020-10-19 16:57:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318234659881242624)
Body: Next, you need to build a probability distribution for when the funds get unlocked (let’s pretend that all the funds get unlocked all at once, for simplicity). Tons of assumptions and different sets of info come into play in divining this, and everyone’s answer will vary.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318234659881242624
Date: 2020-10-19 16:56:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318234605560893441)
Body: At least not on average -- presumably the capital being there implies you’d usually keep some capital there, which means that you’re getting some utility from having it there. So, assuming that OKEx maintains trading at close to typical volume, call this 5bp/day.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318234605560893441
Date: 2020-10-19 16:56:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318234476313411584)
Body: To determine what the cost of the capital is short-term, you first need to determine what the marginal return on capital you could move freely is vs. capital that you can only use on OKEx. Honestly, for the capital you were *already holding* on OKEx, this shouldn’t be HUGE.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318234476313411584
Date: 2020-10-19 16:56:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318234439030206464)
Body: In determining a “fair price” for the locked capital, there are two main considerations -- what’s the probability that the money is gone forever, and, if it isn’t, what’s the cost of the capital being stuck on OKEx for however long it is stuck there.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318234439030206464
Date: 2020-10-19 16:55:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1318234398475497477)
Body: I’ll preface the rest of this by saying that I really have no idea (and an obligatory NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE) -- there’s a ton of moving parts, and I’m definitely not an expert on all fo them. I imagine there exist few such experts, in this case! But anyway:
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318234398475497477
Date: 2020-10-19 16:55:46 GMT
Quoted tweet: @cmsholdings: 11. Could also start OTC selling coins on Okcoin like what happened on MTGOX I'd say were about 2 weeks away from that stage of grief
Body: This is actually pretty interesting -- let's say this market does exist. What discount should we be applying to capital that's locked on OKEx? https://t.co/wzMExg1w5l
Stats: 33 likes, 1 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 8 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318221924359577600
Date: 2020-10-19 16:06:12 GMT
Replying to: @Alice_comfy (Tweet ID: 1318220832213118976)
Body: @AliceCrypt @cmsholdings @TheSkyhopper I think that would be fun but sadly have no say on what FTX does :(
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1318220495985074183
Date: 2020-10-19 16:00:32 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1318157071536226306)
Body: @cmsholdings @TheSkyhopper Would be interested in getting to this market.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1317382210878545920
Date: 2020-10-17 08:29:29 GMT
Replying to: @svendlast (Tweet ID: 1317381255118442498)
Body: @svendlast Depends what you mean by “machine learning” I guess, we’re rarely just handing a neural net a mountain of data and asking it to spit out trades, but we run lots of studies dependent on ideas from ML (clustering, complex regressions, etc.).
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1317086588149526530
Date: 2020-10-16 12:54:47 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1317086237556027393)
Body: @SBF_Alameda I stopped reading but I assume this is because it's when I started.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1317076558851543040
Date: 2020-10-16 12:14:56 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1317076479109419008)
Body: @cmsholdings OK
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1317069850959704064
Date: 2020-10-16 11:48:17 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1317064717152628737)
Body: @cmsholdings Didn't lean enough into how low-hanging this was, 2/10
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1317056211439603712
Date: 2020-10-16 10:54:05 GMT
Replying to: @mr8559 (Tweet ID: 1317024108379402240)
Body: @crypto4HK @frxresearch @SBF_Alameda He walks from his desk to the table where we put food orders. And back!
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316807841202675712
Date: 2020-10-15 18:27:09 GMT
Replying to: @rahul_rai121 (Tweet ID: 1316802939659390976)
Body: @rahul_rai121 Agreed RTed this myself an hour ago :D
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316785263956221952
Date: 2020-10-15 16:57:26 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: THETA is THE TAlk of the town -- the three biggest spot exchanges where it trades are totally disjointed (right now it’s trading .44 on Huobi, .39 on OKEx, and .34 on Binance). Binance perps hit their max funding, and FTX perps have been paying a lot to longs. https://t.co/v8k6qIOKE3
Body: Something something FIL + very long transfer times + some exchanges blocking withdrawals + tons of price uncertainty.
Will write up more about trading this FIL launch later, a real wild one though. https://t.co/mislh5jbo0
Stats: 22 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316625740905893889
Date: 2020-10-15 06:23:33 GMT
Replying to: @RRunner144 (Tweet ID: 1316547428510818305)
Body: @RRunner144 Nothing specific, if something seems likely categorically bad we'll change it, if it seems likely idiosyncratic we won't.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316064341481984002
Date: 2020-10-13 17:12:44 GMT
Replying to: @MikeMcDonald89 (Tweet ID: 1316063881739948032)
Body: @MikeMcDonald89 @NateSilver538 Oh yeah agreed — this is why I think a lot of uncertainty is right. I don’t immediately default to trusting the market just because OI is honestly pretty low and has potential for bias (esp Trump bias IMO) but huge error bars.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316061591167664128
Date: 2020-10-13 17:01:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1316061493826256896)
Body: @NateSilver538 and his team have done a ton of really impressive work in the past, and I’ve love to hear thoughts about what this analysis might be missing, especially as it relates to aspects of the model I can’t see.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316061493826256896
Date: 2020-10-13 17:01:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1316061421113810944)
Body: So, I’m confused because of that apparent gap between the changes they’ve described and the resulting probabilities the model spits out. But it’s hard to say if this is “wrong,” and I could be missing something.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316061421113810944
Date: 2020-10-13 17:01:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1316061190695444482)
Body: Especially because 538 actually seemed to be running pretty high volatility in 2016 -- their ending Trump probability was way higher than everyone else’s, including all the major markets. (I think this was super impressive, BTW, and made me an even bigger fan of theirs).
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316061190695444482
Date: 2020-10-13 17:00:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1316061023535685632)
Body: Admittedly, the polling differential is higher this year than it was last year, which might just explain all of why 538 is so low even with higher volatility. But I’d think that suggests their volatility didn’t change *that* much, which estimates for poll uncertainty bear out.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316061023535685632
Date: 2020-10-13 16:59:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1316060953260126210)
Body: I’m confused by the difference in concert with the *direction*, though. If 538 is now running even higher volatility than in 2016, how are they so much lower than the markets (and also not higher than this, in an absolute sense)?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316060953260126210
Date: 2020-10-13 16:59:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1316060886444830722)
Body: Betting markets have converged around 33%, on the other hand. Nate Silver explains the *difference* by noting the markets are illiquid and dominated by unsophisticated election model-makers -- which is totally reasonable.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316060886444830722
Date: 2020-10-13 16:59:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1316060695364923392)
Body: 538’s model is currently forecasting Trump as 13% to win. For reference, in 2016 this is around as low as 538’s Trump probability got, and they landed at 30% on election night. It's close to in line with where they were last year at the same time (pre-Comey).
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316060695364923392
Date: 2020-10-13 16:58:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1316060644467118081)
Body: These all point in the same direction, and the article seems to imply they moved their model’s volatility in that direction, which you’d expect to push the expected win probabilities closer to 50%.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316060644467118081
Date: 2020-10-13 16:58:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1316060607674683393)
Body: As they note, it seems the extent to which polls can change a lot has gone up; chance of important news is up; voter turnout volatility is up; there are more chances for covariance; and a tacit “Trump is Trump.”
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316060607674683393
Date: 2020-10-13 16:57:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1316060441517285376)
Body: This article basically explains all the reasons why it’s likely important for their model (or any model based heavily on polls and traditional sorts of data) to run higher volatility.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1316060441517285376
Date: 2020-10-13 16:57:15 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 1) 2020 election odds
Body: Great thread from Sam about the 2020 election. I'd add that 538 at least claims they have significantly increased the amount of vol their models are using; see here: https://t.co/ExOj4ztQwZ
...which, honestly, leaves me sort of confused. https://t.co/BQ27DF5Gw7
Stats: 19 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314963761401274369
Date: 2020-10-10 16:19:26 GMT
Body: @spocknimoy_xyz @SBF_Alameda @jackshaftoes We did that a few months ago! Rave reviews.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314963017147187200
Date: 2020-10-10 16:16:28 GMT
Replying to: @wphan7805 (Tweet ID: 1314902720038473728)
Body: @WilliamPhan17 Depends on how big the risk seems but def the kind of thing we devote some resources to.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314822787719020546
Date: 2020-10-10 06:59:15 GMT
Replying to: @atabinnaughty (Tweet ID: 1314686577080180736)
Body: @atabinnaughty Nah, I've always tended toward the long-winded.
And we do have a third Sam!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314820672036597760
Date: 2020-10-10 06:50:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314820588695769088)
Body: @RRunner144 You can never *know* what will happen, but if you do this (correctly!) enough times you'll make $ in the long run.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314820588695769088
Date: 2020-10-10 06:50:31 GMT
Replying to: @RRunner144 (Tweet ID: 1314804953425248257)
Body: @RRunner144 FWIW I'd frame the "figuring out what an asset can do" thing a bit more precisely as: determine a probability distribution of all possible outcomes, and make trades which are +EV given that distribution.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314819226763358210
Date: 2020-10-10 06:45:06 GMT
Replying to: @RRunner144 (Tweet ID: 1314785737221509120)
Body: @RRunner144 Basically: they have backgrounds doing similar stuff, they're good under pressure / at thinking about quantitative things fast / playing games, and sometimes we throw people into the deep end and see how it goes :D
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314819010341478400
Date: 2020-10-10 06:44:14 GMT
Replying to: @steve0hhhh (Tweet ID: 1314761686902071296)
Body: @steve0hhhh Mostly glorified statistics.
Stats: 1 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314817866789654531
Date: 2020-10-10 06:39:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlisonbobEth (Tweet ID: 1314794640973815808)
Body: @aalexis1234 @SBF_Alameda @CBurnstun Oh is that why @SBF_Alameda has mold on his desk?
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314669334409605125
Date: 2020-10-09 20:49:29 GMT
Replying to: @RRunner144 (Tweet ID: 1314630502813442048)
Body: @RRunner144 Which question was better to ask than what I did? (Real question!)
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314668997200150528
Date: 2020-10-09 20:48:08 GMT
Replying to: @shauryamalwa (Tweet ID: 1314619785666277376)
Body: @shauryamalwa @Cryptoutsorcing @SBF_Alameda I’d like you to! You can do what you please.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314668853943623680
Date: 2020-10-09 20:47:34 GMT
Replying to: @onelk10 (Tweet ID: 1314617203233304577)
Body: @onerk10 We do both! One set of strategies is market making — we agree to market make for some product or exchange in exchange for a fee/rebate, and decide whether what we receive is worth the setup/cost of providing (tightly) 24/7.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314668495490093056
Date: 2020-10-09 20:46:09 GMT
Replying to: @thatfinchguy (Tweet ID: 1314589004038369280)
Body: @thatfinchguy Yup always risk-based! We typically calculate risk-adjusted EV (how to calculate either risk or EV tends to be the operative question) and determine whether a strategy is worth running based on that.
Stats: 2 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314668118334087168
Date: 2020-10-09 20:44:39 GMT
Replying to: @geenty (Tweet ID: 1314571636893462530)
Body: @geenty Well depends on how good the return is on what we’re doing — 20% return for a 5% risk of lao it everything we commit certainly justifies committing *something* (probably a lot), numbers will move this substantially.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314667616963751936
Date: 2020-10-09 20:42:39 GMT
Replying to: @CoinflipperA (Tweet ID: 1314568791188287494)
Body: @CoinflipperA Our team is amazing and super synergistic (loaded a word as it is). I would struggle to succeed without our devs, and they’d struggle without our quants, and we’d all struggle without our ops people and our infrastructure.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314667065253326848
Date: 2020-10-09 20:40:28 GMT
Replying to: @edder5000 (Tweet ID: 1314564954486312960)
Body: @EtherDarth Agreed that basing any strategy on “opinion” is bad! We do not do this, and I don’t recommend it to anyone else.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314568154505306114
Date: 2020-10-09 14:07:26 GMT
Replying to: @CoinflipperA (Tweet ID: 1314567777110368257)
Body: @CoinflipperA 15?
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314563094379524096
Date: 2020-10-09 13:47:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314562979816337409)
Body: @Evan_ss6 @crypto_hades Didn't think that was worth clarifying :P
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314562979816337409
Date: 2020-10-09 13:46:52 GMT
Replying to: @Evan_ss6 (Tweet ID: 1314562852288704512)
Body: @Evan_ss6 @crypto_hades We do not break laws, no!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314562860261928960
Date: 2020-10-09 13:46:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314551937795158017)
Body: In retrospect this tweet has big "I'm just a bill" energy.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314561499365470209
Date: 2020-10-09 13:40:59 GMT
Replying to: @jay_ftx (Tweet ID: 1314561154618884096)
Body: @sergeypartnered Mix -- if it's busy it tends to be manual, when it's slower more automated.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314561307887104002
Date: 2020-10-09 13:40:13 GMT
Replying to: @mbuenn (Tweet ID: 1314560849860849666)
Body: @mbuenn Good question! OI went down a lot, seems a bunch of people did withdraw, but they are certainly not *dead*. Will be interesting to see whether they quickly recover more volume/OI/etc. or if things turn, might depend on more news coming out. So, pretty unsure!
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314560984791408641
Date: 2020-10-09 13:38:56 GMT
Replying to: @ScaleWeb3 (Tweet ID: 1314560783444049920)
Body: @1stCRYPTOKING That's basically our investing strategy that Sam described! This was about our faster/shorter timescale stuff.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314559190979891200
Date: 2020-10-09 13:31:49 GMT
Replying to: @jay_ftx (Tweet ID: 1314558955872550913)
Body: @sergeypartnered We try to leave a mix of quote currencies everywhere so we can really quickly enter positions.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314559015444123648
Date: 2020-10-09 13:31:07 GMT
Replying to: @mbenothman (Tweet ID: 1314558482234798082)
Body: @mbenothman We sort of discount the yield by how likely we think all of our $ is to get stolen (hence we don't really use the ones where we think that probability is non-negligible)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314558854588293120
Date: 2020-10-09 13:30:28 GMT
Replying to: @Cryptoutsorcing (Tweet ID: 1314558557409300481)
Body: @Cryptoutsorcing @SBF_Alameda I do not work for FTX, and have zero information about FTX's customers. Alameda has zero special access to FTX.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314557622033416192
Date: 2020-10-09 13:25:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314557452948439042)
Body: @EtherDarth Often in crypto there are super idiosyncratic decisions which pop up and need to be dealt with, and our humans are pretty damn good at them :)
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314557452948439042
Date: 2020-10-09 13:24:54 GMT
Replying to: @edder5000 (Tweet ID: 1314557337504366593)
Body: @EtherDarth Not saying this will work for everyone, but it's worked quite well for us!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314557212476370950
Date: 2020-10-09 13:23:57 GMT
Replying to: @edder5000 (Tweet ID: 1314556972243406848)
Body: @EtherDarth Hmm, pretty hard disagree honestly, our math-based strategies have done quite well :) I agree it's important to remain vigilant about when they might fail (hence what I said about valuing humans), but by and large we've found studies invaluable.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314556963796123649
Date: 2020-10-09 13:22:58 GMT
Replying to: @edder5000 (Tweet ID: 1314556705682845697)
Body: @EtherDarth Interesting, is the trading the book describes bad, or is the book itself bad?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314556788616777729
Date: 2020-10-09 13:22:16 GMT
Replying to: @edder5000 (Tweet ID: 1314556567472107520)
Body: @EtherDarth Not aping anyone! In fact I'd say a lot of our strategies are pretty innovative. But we'll analyze everything, figure out what actions will make the most $, and do those actions.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314556566310277120
Date: 2020-10-09 13:21:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314556418842746882)
Body: @crypto_hades (Follow the money is basically my personal ethos, too, once you control for being at least kind of happy in the meantime, which is why Alameda is such a great place to be :P)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314556418842746882
Date: 2020-10-09 13:20:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314556295672811522)
Body: @crypto_hades But we really don't care what sort of data gives us the best results / most profitable strategies -- we'll do whatever we have to to stay ahead.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314556295672811522
Date: 2020-10-09 13:20:18 GMT
Replying to: @crypto_hades (Tweet ID: 1314555077546438658)
Body: @crypto_hades Ooh good question -- I meant something closer to: do the thing that makes the most $, regardless of what that thing is. Sometimes our strategies involve e.g. analyzing trade data and trusting fairs from it which might amount of "trusting big players" on average.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314552848634396672
Date: 2020-10-09 13:06:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314552785250074628)
Body: But trading and investing inform each other in really nice ways, so it’s been a natural fit. Like I said, we follow the money wherever it goes, and lately it’s been going to some pretty weird places :P Can’t wait to see where it goes next!
Stats: 21 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314552785250074628
Date: 2020-10-09 13:06:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314552723472228352)
Body: There’s also a lot of math in the trading side -- I skimmed over the research process in how we develop strategies (hey, that’s the other word in our name), but we spend a ton of time on it, and we’d be screwed without it.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314552723472228352
Date: 2020-10-09 13:06:07 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314552677917880320)
Body: (By which I mean: there’s a million buttons we’re pushing all the time and they have lots of sometimes hard-to-predict effects, and they interact with each other.)
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314552677917880320
Date: 2020-10-09 13:05:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314552578051506176)
Body: I’d summarize the differences between this and our investing as: different timescales (shorter trades + we also have less time to think), a little more agnostic about “what we’re doing” (sometimes we trust data over e.g. the macro elements of a coin), and more game-like.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314552578051506176
Date: 2020-10-09 13:05:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314552516655284227)
Body: On a high level, that’s kind of it -- we learn about the markets, we come up with strategies, we test them, we run them, we think about how risky they are, we count our money. The specifics can get gnarly and really challenging (and fun!), but that’s the gist.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314552516655284227
Date: 2020-10-09 13:05:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314552469561602049)
Body: There’s a ton going on here, and we often have to make risk adjustment decisions in seconds -- it’s another reason that humans are so important, and it’s an added layer when we’re considering each and every one of our strategies.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314552469561602049
Date: 2020-10-09 13:05:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314552428117651456)
Body: Some risks: platforms defaulting, transfers failing, a position getting liquidated before we can exit, entering into an unhedged but risky position that could go against us, a tech disaster causing us to lose a lot, etc. etc. etc.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314552428117651456
Date: 2020-10-09 13:04:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314552372270518274)
Body: Broadly, we weigh how valuable a given action is vs. how much potential downside that action has (and how likely the downside is), and then if it meets so bar we do the action. And there are all kinds of risks, some of which are really hard to evaluate.
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314552372270518274
Date: 2020-10-09 13:04:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314552280268455937)
Body: Another wrinkle to this game is *risk* -- how do we think about risk? What if the money goes somewhere dangerous?
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314552280268455937
Date: 2020-10-09 13:04:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314552244554002432)
Body: (Our capital base also is not fixed -- many platforms offer leverage and loans and whatnot now, and so you can scale up your capital base if you can accept more risk -- we think about this all the time!)
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314552244554002432
Date: 2020-10-09 13:04:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314552177617063937)
Body: Now, the strategies are not *actually* that independent -- often they’re drawing from the same pools of capital, and often their returns are quite correlated. But this model of how our day-to-day works is basically right.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314552177617063937
Date: 2020-10-09 13:03:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314552131039363074)
Body: The same is broadly true for yield farming: at any point, there’s a fixed return on capital for each platform, and we need to decide what to allocate where. Yields can change quickly, of course, but that’s true for the returns from any strategy, so this is basically the same.
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314552131039363074
Date: 2020-10-09 13:03:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314552090606223362)
Body: (That’s how I’d characterize our manual trading, too -- we leave a ton of collateral on the derivatives platforms, for instance, so we as human traders can decide to put on a huge position if we ever want to.)
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314552090606223362
Date: 2020-10-09 13:03:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314552040899506176)
Body: Some of our strategies are more passive, most of the time, and sort of amount to “leave a bunch of money sitting on some exchange and wait for the 1% of times it’s best to enter a huge position.” Estimating how good and rare those opportunities are dictates how much to allocate.
Stats: 21 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314551997308100611
Date: 2020-10-09 13:03:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314551937795158017)
Body: To some extent, given a set of lots of these strategies, what our day-to-day trading is can be described as: we have some capital base we can deploy however we want -- how do we decide where to put it? This optimization problem is at the core of what we always do.
Stats: 16 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314551937795158017
Date: 2020-10-09 13:02:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314551861047779328)
Body: We run studies to determine what sets of inputs give us reliably good information, test the strategies to make sure the liquidity is real, and then scale up. It’s really just the scientific method, applied to a specific set of market games. And that gives us strategies.
Stats: 38 likes, 4 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314551861047779328
Date: 2020-10-09 13:02:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314551822619537408)
Body: And what kind of inputs do we use? Basically, anything systematic which we can ingest is fair game -- order book data, trade data, blockchain data, yield data, data from non-crypto markets (SPX, etc.), open interest data, etc. etc. etc.
Stats: 38 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314551822619537408
Date: 2020-10-09 13:02:32 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314551747487043584)
Body: And often when markets are quite volatile, there will be a ton of manual intervention and pushing of knows that put on positions we as humans recognize as good -- this is usually quite fast, and based on the intuition and fast thinking which makes it hard to automate me away.
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314551747487043584
Date: 2020-10-09 13:02:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314551704940015617)
Body: Some of our strategies are longer-term -- maybe we’ll have some automated signal which suggests coin X will go up over the next day, so we’ll hold the position for a day. Usually it’s something a bit shorter, but we’ll follow the money anywhere.
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314551704940015617
Date: 2020-10-09 13:02:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314551649323479040)
Body: Our trading is not monolithic, and so there aren’t that many highly-specific claims I can make which apply to all of it. Some of our strategies involve doing thousands of trades back and forth, not holding much of a position ever.
Stats: 13 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314551649323479040
Date: 2020-10-09 13:01:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314551605090373632)
Body: The gist of all of our activities? Follow the money. If there’s money somewhere, we want to be there. And so we devote a lot of time and energy to 1) figuring out where the money is 2) getting there.
Stats: 41 likes, 4 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314551605090373632
Date: 2020-10-09 13:01:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1314551549956222976)
Body: On some level, investing is just trading if you forget about exiting your positions, so there’s certainly a lot of overlap between our mindsets in investing vs. trading. But there are also a lot of differences, which I’ll highlight here.
Stats: 18 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314551549956222976
Date: 2020-10-09 13:01:27 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 1) How Alameda thinks about investments
(for https://t.co/cqVIcp44ci)
Body: Given that Alameda is a *trading* company first and foremost, I thought I’d share some thoughts on how we think about trading (in contrast to Sam’s thread about how we think about investing longer-term). https://t.co/f0ReiuJZmu
Stats: 219 likes, 53 retweets, 4 quote tweets, 19 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314183944359669760
Date: 2020-10-08 12:40:43 GMT
Replying to: @LiorOrel (Tweet ID: 1314178629216026625)
Body: @LiorOrel @SBF_Alameda @FiveThirtyEight @NateSilver538 Why? Seems not obvious to me, especially when OI really isn't that high.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314172981061414912
Date: 2020-10-08 11:57:09 GMT
Replying to: @LiorOrel (Tweet ID: 1314167798684282881)
Body: @LiorOrel @SBF_Alameda @FiveThirtyEight @NateSilver538 That's not necessarily true, though -- for instance, you can imagine that OI is low enough that really informed people might not know/care to bet. Can also imagine a pretty sweeping pro-Trump bias in the kind of people with access/desire to trade there, given that.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1314096695295107073
Date: 2020-10-08 06:54:01 GMT
Replying to: @NagatoDharma (Tweet ID: 1313804446535692288)
Body: @NagatoDharma thank you!
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1313508706571624448
Date: 2020-10-06 15:57:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1313508582495719424)
Body: @FTTInvestor I don't see a great reason to expect continued momentum tho, and it seems like in the past hour things have turned around a bit for alts, so who knows.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1313508582495719424
Date: 2020-10-06 15:57:04 GMT
Replying to: @rugpullz (Tweet ID: 1313503725919637504)
Body: @FTTInvestor Haha yeah was just being tongue-in-cheek :P honestly can't speak to the reason for specific coins being down more than others other than "market wanted to sell them." Re: DeFi as a whole, crypto traders have seemed kinda risk-off, and you'd expect a high-vol trend to get smacked.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1313503002322378754
Date: 2020-10-06 15:34:54 GMT
Replying to: @rugpullz (Tweet ID: 1313502722344325121)
Body: @FTTInvestor You'd have to ask someone who sold them!
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1313502599157481472
Date: 2020-10-06 15:33:17 GMT
Replying to: @colemansmaher (Tweet ID: 1313501951070359552)
Body: @colemansmaher I thought DeFi coins had *replaced* EOS and its ilk on the list of coins I had to care about, I did not sign on for that list getting *longer*
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1313500703470440449
Date: 2020-10-06 15:25:46 GMT
Body: Yes, of course, it's time for EOS.
Stats: 11 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311967884474630144
Date: 2020-10-02 09:54:53 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1311797037755764738)
Body: @cmsholdings what about today's events?
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311758855076864000
Date: 2020-10-01 20:04:17 GMT
Replying to: @ripndipbtc (Tweet ID: 1311758441371758594)
Body: @Scalvox1 That was certainly a turning point for many different venues, and will forever be seared into my nightmares.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311753582241218561
Date: 2020-10-01 19:43:19 GMT
Replying to: @KiwiGonzNZ (Tweet ID: 1311752878038556672)
Body: @KiwiGonzNZ Oh my flash crash is gonna be longer than that, with any luck.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311749806113476608
Date: 2020-10-01 19:28:19 GMT
Replying to: @motykataras (Tweet ID: 1311749592262811648)
Body: @motykataras Any particular alts you're expecting to under- or over-perform?
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311747205795966976
Date: 2020-10-01 19:17:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1311747053484077056)
Body: @cmsholdings note: buying a backpack is obviously not an option for me
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311745954022711296
Date: 2020-10-01 19:13:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1311745824787894273)
Body: Also, pretty bitter this happened right now, am kinda drunk and was about to go to sleep, but I’m in it for the love of the game.
Stats: 22 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311745824787894273
Date: 2020-10-01 19:12:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1311745776456933376)
Body: Anyway, I’ve posed a lot of questions -- they’re the ones we’re struggling with at Alameda right now! We’re not sure of our answers, really, but these are the kinds of things we’re thinking about, and always try to be thinking about when something weird happens in the market.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311745776456933376
Date: 2020-10-01 19:12:18 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1311745640196534273)
Body: Finally, Bitcoin has already moved some amount. Is it too much? How can we know? Is there still potential for more momentum, or is reversion more likely? Hard to answer, but building a model for “how many people, weighted by volume, have reacted so far?” is likely the way to go.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311745640196534273
Date: 2020-10-01 19:11:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1311745616716853248)
Body: What implications does that have? We probably need to look into likely directional move from closing to answer that (and, accordingly, average premium opened at).
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311745616716853248
Date: 2020-10-01 19:11:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1311745549930958848)
Body: And what about coins with contracts with huge open interest on BitMEX? Should we expect those BitMEX contracts to tend to get closed by customers looking to withdraw collateral?
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311745549930958848
Date: 2020-10-01 19:11:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1311745383219879936)
Body: What about random alt coins? It’s hard to paint a great picture that ETH has a special relationship with BitMEX and its foibles, but what about a coin like ADA which BitMEX has stuck by through thick and thin as it’s waned in popularity? Should ADA behave in a particular way?
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311745383219879936
Date: 2020-10-01 19:10:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1311745254056292352)
Body: If you think this is a sign there will be flight to platforms like UNI or SRM, it might make sense to buy them. But maybe this is a sign people will want KYC even more -- then, you might want to do something else.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311745254056292352
Date: 2020-10-01 19:10:14 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1311745162989563905)
Body: What about DeFi? This lawsuit is about KYC, and the DeFi coins certainly have a relationship to traditional KYC. There are a few possible interpretations as to how this should affect them, under that lens.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311745162989563905
Date: 2020-10-01 19:09:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1311745137718915072)
Body: But maybe you can say this one should be down more than this other one (its exchange is “more similar to BitMEX” or something) and you can put on a relative value trade.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311745137718915072
Date: 2020-10-01 19:09:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1311745050099945472)
Body: If they’re down “more than they should be” you should buy, and vice-versa. But that’s not always possible to know! (Maybe it’s *never* possible to know.)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311745050099945472
Date: 2020-10-01 19:09:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1311745017573068800)
Body: To answer that, we need to think about how different coins relate to BitMEX, specifically. A natural class of coins to think about is the *exchange tokens*. How should BNB, FTT, HT, etc. perform when this BitMEX lawsuit arises?
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1311745017573068800
Date: 2020-10-01 19:09:17 GMT
Body: BitMEX, for a while, was almost synonymous with "crypto" in some ways. This is way less true today than it used to be, but negative news for BitMEX -> BTC down is definitely still something to expect. As a level one effect, anyway. What's level two?
Stats: 41 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1310952234545541122
Date: 2020-09-29 14:39:03 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1310930697713053698)
Body: @cmsholdings tho also i wish it let you pick what time "tomorrow" was when you hit "remind me tomorrow" i think that should be on the priority list
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1306808125853294592
Date: 2020-09-18 04:11:51 GMT
Replying to: @polycapmatt (Tweet ID: 1306739742394912770)
Body: @cvmatt At least I’m in time for sloth.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1306575113932791808
Date: 2020-09-17 12:45:56 GMT
Replying to: @CR_Post (Tweet ID: 1306572531210608641)
Body: @CR_Post @rsalame7926 now he just eats the same whole pizza every day
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1306567946597089280
Date: 2020-09-17 12:17:27 GMT
Body: I just got back from a month out of the office and IDK what happened but Alameda's slack reads like an argument over what to order for lunch.
Stats: 80 likes, 3 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 4 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1294134265433604097
Date: 2020-08-14 04:50:27 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: Excited to announce that $SRM will be listing on @OKEx in 12 minutes!
https://t.co/vBw18ytObA when it lists :)
https://t.co/ZSehXFD7gF
Body: OKEx next! Excited to see where this project keeps heading. https://t.co/NSHNg99K8X
Stats: 15 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1293156382712008705
Date: 2020-08-11 12:04:41 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: $SRM will be listing tonight! FTX, BitMax, HBTC, Uniswap, Mesa.Eth, Balancer, TomoDEX.
And Binance.
https://t.co/9Nip7lD5Eb
https://t.co/tyjdao6Ei5
Body: Less than 90 minutes! https://t.co/RSczNb91Qi
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1293141599224881152
Date: 2020-08-11 11:05:57 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: $SRM lists in 3.5 hours. There are NO exchanges listing SRM before 9:30pm HKT. If any exchange trades before then, they do not have any SRM and are a scam.
https://t.co/tyjdao6Ei5
Body: Exciting! https://t.co/nvbOthKGuA
Stats: 12 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1289873175916843009
Date: 2020-08-02 10:38:24 GMT
Replying to: @Haoskionchain (Tweet ID: 1289872188217028608)
Body: @Haoskionchain When I'm off by more than 1 in my guess for the BTC handle I tend to get a little concerned.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1289819149309337600
Date: 2020-08-02 07:03:43 GMT
Replying to: @effectivelyrekt (Tweet ID: 1289818826314416129)
Body: @5uvarna @blocksoflego @VentureCoinist @SBF_Alameda Yeah this is now a "thing" in the office, it's happened like 4 times.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1289816335858376706
Date: 2020-08-02 06:52:32 GMT
Body: man why do i even try to take days off >.<
Stats: 45 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1288753574357241857
Date: 2020-07-30 08:29:30 GMT
Replying to: @EvgenyGaevoy (Tweet ID: 1288729024630595588)
Body: @EvgenyGaevoy @SBF_Alameda Also, not making any claims that it's 100% real (can't confirm that for any exchange), just that it's at least quite substantially real.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1288753355142045696
Date: 2020-07-30 08:28:38 GMT
Replying to: @EvgenyGaevoy (Tweet ID: 1288728740873240578)
Body: @EvgenyGaevoy @SBF_Alameda Hmm does this work? I wouldn't think the extra fees you pay doing this would make this make sense but have not checked.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1288682789215199232
Date: 2020-07-30 03:48:14 GMT
Replying to: @jasonklau (Tweet ID: 1288681498443317248)
Body: @jasonklau @geenty @coinmetrics Yup; I think doing analysis re: size of orders on the book vs. size / price of reported trades is the most important thing. Other possible metrics to look at are page views, volatility of volume over time (e.g. constant high volume -> fake), and all this on a per coin basis.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1288386942405468161
Date: 2020-07-29 08:12:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1288386775270821889)
Body: @_JFSM_ The appendix to our report contains the funniest results: https://t.co/9nPaeAtv9I
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1288386775270821889
Date: 2020-07-29 08:11:58 GMT
Replying to: @_JFSM_ (Tweet ID: 1288386155449327617)
Body: @_JFSM_ Yup that's what Alameda's 1st criterion was!
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1288362546077011968
Date: 2020-07-29 06:35:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1288362434374205444)
Body: At some point we’ll likely update our methodology to include more diverse metrics (I do think there’s something to web traffic, FWIW) -- but for now, people should at least know that OKEx does not deserve a 0/3 score on basically any legit volume test. https://t.co/jAWS1vyc8U
Stats: 6 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1288362434374205444
Date: 2020-07-29 06:35:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1288362340803477505)
Body: I’m not claiming that our metrics are either perfect or complete -- but they yield results that gel with our experiences actually doing a ton of volume on every exchange where that’s possible, and I think that’s a giant update that our methodology makes sense.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1288362340803477505
Date: 2020-07-29 06:34:53 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1288362283060490241)
Body: Their other two metrics are plausible, too, but neither has anything to do with analyzing trades / order books the exchanges are actually reporting. For comparison, all six of our metrics analyzed those things, as they’re basically the whole story.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1288362283060490241
Date: 2020-07-29 06:34:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1288362245097844736)
Body: The U.S. exchanges also basically don’t have leverage, which creates an effect where the times they’re busiest, they have WAY more volume than the U.S. exchanges can -- and that can fuck with the simple correlation, too.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1288362245097844736
Date: 2020-07-29 06:34:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1288362210704543744)
Body: This is a pretty important adjustment to make -- derivatives exchanges mostly ban U.S. customers, so biasing towards them unfairly hurts derivatives exchanges.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1288362210704543744
Date: 2020-07-29 06:34:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1288362159550783488)
Body: Comparing just to the regulated US exchanges does achieve a bit of a guarantee that you’re comparing to *real* volume -- but it’s gonna be biased toward real *U.S.* volume. We adjusted for that by rerunning against established Asian exchanges, too.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1288362092576165894
Date: 2020-07-29 06:33:54 GMT
Quoted tweet: @coinmetrics: Crypto trading volume numbers are often exaggerated or faked. Which exchanges have trustworthy trading volume?
We created a framework to help solve the problem.
Read more here:
https://t.co/0pjGAlA1vp https://t.co/83uxKGYtcf
Body: Understanding which exchanges have real volume and which have fake volume is pretty important -- it guides decisions like where to send money, and which markets to use as sources of truth for price. And the metrics used here aren't *crazy* -- but IMO they're not ideal. https://t.co/usXGppnDQS
Stats: 12 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1286628380943630336
Date: 2020-07-24 11:44:45 GMT
Replying to: @zhusu (Tweet ID: 1286623810423144448)
Body: @zhusu this is intense
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1285145472806486016
Date: 2020-07-20 09:32:12 GMT
Replying to: @mr8559 (Tweet ID: 1285110731952631808)
Body: @crypto4HK This an underground one? Haven't heard of him/her.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1285076335216349184
Date: 2020-07-20 04:57:28 GMT
Body: What are some of the best accounts you guys use to stay apprised of what's happening in DeFi right now?
Stats: 23 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 12 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1285076204177899521
Date: 2020-07-20 04:56:57 GMT
Replying to: @rugpullz (Tweet ID: 1283403085277270016)
Body: @FTTInvestor Sorry for the delay! Have been relatively offline lately but am back. My thought here is basically: alts are king, people aren't really trading a ton of BTC directionally rn, and so BTC isn't following SPX (or anything) atm.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1281479177091203072
Date: 2020-07-10 06:43:39 GMT
Replying to: @NaiveKrypto (Tweet ID: 1281478674886176768)
Body: @NaiveKrypto @CL207 @CheesyCapital Yup! DOGE markets have been fairly inefficient lately, so there have been a lot of trading opportunities.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1281478032125915136
Date: 2020-07-10 06:39:06 GMT
Replying to: @CL207 (Tweet ID: 1281453834208854016)
Body: @CL207 @CheesyCapital Worth noting FTX is not trading against anyone. Our team at Alameda has traded some DOGE on FTX and hedged some of it -- I agree that when the futures are especially rich it's been good to sell vs. buying spot :)
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1279312268757368833
Date: 2020-07-04 07:13:08 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1279213935628083200)
Body: @cmsholdings @geenty So hot it’s been dropped.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1278379816404676608
Date: 2020-07-01 17:27:54 GMT
Replying to: @voltron001 (Tweet ID: 1278377512146329601)
Body: @voltron001 @FTTInvestor i answered in a RT!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1278325876636086273
Date: 2020-07-01 13:53:33 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1278322768203915268)
Body: @austerity_sucks sounded fun! my school never did it :(
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1278319486525829121
Date: 2020-07-01 13:28:10 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1278319450844917761)
Body: BTC is definitely tracking SPX both on the way up and on the way down, though -- understanding second-order effects is key to guessing to what extent it will at any given time.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1278319450844917761
Date: 2020-07-01 13:28:01 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1278319412928327685)
Body: It’s hard to pin down, and there are likely also other effects at play (for instance, any other impetus for selling in combination with SPX rallying might mean BTC will go up but not too much).
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1278319412928327685
Date: 2020-07-01 13:27:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1278319371991932929)
Body: Another metric is “how recently did BTC reach this price” -- the less recently, the more positions that haven’t had a chance to get liquidated yet at that price (this isn’t exact because cross-margin, but it helps).
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1278319371991932929
Date: 2020-07-01 13:27:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1278319331336544256)
Body: It’s hard to exactly predict when lots of liquidations will get triggered -- one tool is looking at when OI goes up for important contracts, and trying to use average leverage data to guess when those will get liquidated.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1278319331336544256
Date: 2020-07-01 13:27:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1278319292186890240)
Body: BTC is, in fact, tracking SPX in both directions -- it just sometimes exhibits more momentum than at other times, and I think this is basically a function of liquidations getting triggered (across platforms).
Stats: 3 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1278319292186890240
Date: 2020-07-01 13:27:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1278319242207653888)
Body: And then if SPX quickly recovers, it’s unlikely the same number of people will put on levered shorts to get liquidated when BTC tracks its recovery. I think this is basically what’s happening right now.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1278319242207653888
Date: 2020-07-01 13:27:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1278319176965292042)
Body: Let’s say there’s a lot of levered longs who will get liquidated if BTC drops 1%, driving the price down another 1% net. And let’s say SPX moves down forcing BTC down 1% -- this makes BTC look like SPX is driving it down more.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1278319176965292042
Date: 2020-07-01 13:26:56 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1278319119587086336)
Body: Let’s assume for now that people are intending to trade BTC with the same beta to SPX when SPX is going up and when it’s going down. Can that be consistent with the observation that BTC seems to track SPX more on the downside?
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1278306990670745601
Date: 2020-07-01 12:38:31 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: The FTX June Monthly Digest: Traders Edition is live! Featuring big-brained individuals such as
@cmsholdings, @AlamedaTrabucco and @nibbio_hk
https://t.co/V0ZUpNlqj0
Body: Wrote some thoughts here about how to make really fast decisions and how middle school math competitions are why I'm good at it. https://t.co/QjNGOhRwgo
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1277619647597010951
Date: 2020-06-29 15:07:15 GMT
Replying to: @StoplossHunter (Tweet ID: 1277619556018724864)
Body: @StoplossHunter @SBF_Alameda looking for this to involve a cash prize
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275750779857465345
Date: 2020-06-24 11:21:02 GMT
Replying to: @KoomoKumo (Tweet ID: 1275655742670995456)
Body: @KoomoKumo Compelling point.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275486206722113536
Date: 2020-06-23 17:49:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275486086077116417)
Body: @CryptoBlt And yeah max - min for spot is quite high, really volatile period -- lots of great trading opportunities!
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275486086077116417
Date: 2020-06-23 17:49:14 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoBlt (Tweet ID: 1275485085521924102)
Body: @CryptoBlt Market's been pretty consistently pricing in a large discount for all futures.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275482960016273410
Date: 2020-06-23 17:36:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275482884883636231)
Body: Unclear to what extent this would have happened if the buildup of crazy bids hadn’t been able to happen -- likely it still would have sold off, but my guess is a good amount more slowly if everyone who sent COMP to Coinbase to sell didn’t feel they had to do so all at once.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275482884883636231
Date: 2020-06-23 17:36:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275482793212952576)
Body: This probably contributed to just how quick the reversion was when Coinbase opened full trading. People RUSHED to hit these bids, and in the process sent COMP way below where it started almost immediately -- to $280 or so, and it’s so far stayed within 10% of that.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275482793212952576
Date: 2020-06-23 17:36:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275482668151365634)
Body: It also encouraged others to place rich bids, too -- notice how much in total is bid above $350, whereas other markets were mostly around $330 at the time this screenshot was taken. (For a bit they got higher, but the bid book on Coinbase was always super rich, on average).
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275482668151365634
Date: 2020-06-23 17:35:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275482421757018112)
Body: See, for instance, their BTC/USD book -- someone bid 439 (WAY higher than it was trading on any other exchange at the time), and so no one was allowed to place any offers below that. It made it so there was no possible price discovery, for one thing. https://t.co/pkV91o2QGM
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275482421757018112
Date: 2020-06-23 17:34:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275482342711156736)
Body: Coinbase introduces a quirk with their initial post-only period. They don’t allow any orders to cross the book, so if the first order someone places is a super-aggressive bid, it’s *impossible* for anyone to place a reasonable offer. This is just what happened.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275482342711156736
Date: 2020-06-23 17:34:22 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: @SBF_Alameda had a great thread explaining how Compound works and what its cXXX tokens and COMP do. But understanding how these work is only half the battle -- how do we trade them? Here are my thoughts. https://t.co/MURy5S2AJk
Body: Whew, the Coinbase listing was actually kinda cool -- COMP ran up a bit more into the listing across every exchange and fell a bit in the aftermath (basically what you'd expect), but with a bit of a twist. https://t.co/l4tr9JTk81
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275473114806140929
Date: 2020-06-23 16:57:42 GMT
Replying to: @Alan_Path (Tweet ID: 1275472426982309894)
Body: @AlanStacked I'm working on an FTX edition.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275438472170369027
Date: 2020-06-23 14:40:02 GMT
Replying to: @LongShort_io (Tweet ID: 1275438319153766400)
Body: @LongShort_io Are you sure??
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275438290347323399
Date: 2020-06-23 14:39:19 GMT
Replying to: @LongShort_io (Tweet ID: 1275437684203257856)
Body: @LongShort_io Ran out of time, shucks!!!
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275435971484377088
Date: 2020-06-23 14:30:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275435862382137344)
Body: ...and I definitely wouldn't want to run into Tory. https://t.co/Hy7JpuCSXm
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275435862382137344
Date: 2020-06-23 14:29:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275435734715887616)
Body: I wouldn't want to run into Carl while I was alone. https://t.co/76hY9BO9BK
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275435734715887616
Date: 2020-06-23 14:29:10 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275435573356851201)
Body: Rihanna looking different these days than she used to @rsalame7926 https://t.co/txWeXqFUaz
Stats: 8 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275435573356851201
Date: 2020-06-23 14:28:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275435213372354560)
Body: Please meet Natalia https://t.co/OFiU9oVo0E
Stats: 6 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275435213372354560
Date: 2020-06-23 14:27:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275430349909024768)
Body: OK I got a little carried away, here are some more members of the Alameda team https://t.co/19U4HSOAk8
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275431084809838592
Date: 2020-06-23 14:10:41 GMT
Replying to: @0x_Krypto (Tweet ID: 1275430790541848576)
Body: @KryptoAlpha_ https://t.co/CtUdrprrcp
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275430553349545985
Date: 2020-06-23 14:08:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275430349909024768)
Body: I think easily better than @VitalikButerin , probably worse than @justinsuntron, thoughts?
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275430349909024768
Date: 2020-06-23 14:07:46 GMT
Body: Oh, and as promised, please meet Samantha Bankman-Fried (Sam for short). https://t.co/MMHRnkIGzl
Stats: 140 likes, 6 retweets, 12 quote tweets, 22 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275429774265995265
Date: 2020-06-23 14:05:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275429526810423298)
Body: Beyond that, COMP’s future will mostly come down to whether the people who think DeFi (and COMP) are the future turn out to be correct -- if they are, COMP will likely outpace the selling pressure from miners, and if not then probably not. Will be exciting to watch play out! https://t.co/U2IaZM46ul
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275429526810423298
Date: 2020-06-23 14:04:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275429466450227201)
Body: So, where does all this leave us? Short-term, I expect a lot of volatility to keep up as the DeFi craze keeps up (and especially for the next few hours headed into the Coinbase listing), and I think it’s tough to predict delta-wise what will happen as the listing takes place.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275429466450227201
Date: 2020-06-23 14:04:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275429355871539201)
Body: The fact that COMP is skyrocketing even despite this indicates that there’s a *lot* of buying interest (or that a lot of miners are holding, also believable), but medium-term and beyond (and even short-term) this will represent selling pressure on the token.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275429300414476288
Date: 2020-06-23 14:03:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275429195225526273)
Body: But wow, is it up a lot since the Coinbase announcement -- way more than any other of their recent announced listings were pre-listing. It had all these other effects working for it, so it’s hard to say whether it’s over-bought -- we’ll see in a few hours!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275429195225526273
Date: 2020-06-23 14:03:11 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275429116129316865)
Body: Further, COMP is listed on very few other platforms, so when it lists on Coinbase (that’s in a few hours, at this point) it’s plausible that it’ll be a lot of people’s first access to the token, so lots of people might have bought it up expecting that.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275429116129316865
Date: 2020-06-23 14:02:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275429012806922241)
Body: Coinbase has quite the bar for listing a token, especially one that seems as idiosyncratic in how its value works as COMP. That COMP cleared that bar is pretty plausibly a really bullish sign, and might confirm the view that COMP is The Future.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275429012806922241
Date: 2020-06-23 14:02:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275428914634997760)
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Going forward, when evaluating whether to buy coins when a new listing’s been announced, that’s the sort of thing I’m going to look out for -- does this *specific* exchange listing this *specific* coin carry weight? Answering yes is, I think, critical for the trade to be good.
Body: Another effect is the Coinbase listing effect -- I talked about there in this thread, and in particular I think the answers to my last tweet explains a lot of what’s happened. https://t.co/1CZ5be1SKV
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275428914634997760
Date: 2020-06-23 14:02:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275428718928728064)
Body: Getting access to the governance token on what’s currently the hottest DeFi lending platform has a lot of appeal to these people, and so lots of people are buying it price-insensitively, which is causing quite a volatile ride. Those who speculate this will happen are buying too.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275428718928728064
Date: 2020-06-23 14:01:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275428425600135169)
Body: To be clear, I’m not claiming anyone who thinks either of these things is wrong -- just that I don’t feel qualified to evaluate whether they’re right, and knowing that lots of people think them is enough to be able to trade it anyway. I’m also exaggerating a bit. :P
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275428425600135169
Date: 2020-06-23 14:00:07 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275428267382587397)
Body: A related effect which is specific to COMP seems to be “Defi is the future, but Compound is The Future.” If you think I’m using rhetorical capitalization to mask that I recognize this is people’s opinion but don’t feel I understand why well enough to explain it, good call.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275428267382587397
Date: 2020-06-23 13:59:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275428177112780801)
Body: The first effect is the one impacting all of DeFi, and the effect seems basically to be “DeFi is the future,” or something. This is the effect which a) I think has the most long-term implications and which b) I understand the least well.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275428177112780801
Date: 2020-06-23 13:59:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1275428029917872129)
Body: COMP’s price (and the rest of the DeFi coins’, to a slightly lesser extent) is going insane, to say the least. There’s a number of effects at play here (admittedly, I understand some of these better than others). https://t.co/ihKtuyXG3z
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1275428029917872129
Date: 2020-06-23 13:58:33 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: 1) What is COMP, you ask? Why is everyone talking about it, and why is FTX listing it? A thread.
Body: @SBF_Alameda had a great thread explaining how Compound works and what its cXXX tokens and COMP do. But understanding how these work is only half the battle -- how do we trade them? Here are my thoughts. https://t.co/MURy5S2AJk
Stats: 21 likes, 4 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1274695698437423104
Date: 2020-06-21 13:28:31 GMT
Body: Should I release the results of the 20 minutes I've spent today creating feminine versions of @SBF_Alameda's photos?
Stats: 12 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1273352864732078080
Date: 2020-06-17 20:32:35 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1273350542752837632)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @vechainofficial When SCRABBLE
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1273249314723094529
Date: 2020-06-17 13:41:07 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1273248868495503363)
Body: @austerity_sucks Some do, though a lot of people I see complaining after they trade about having to pay funding because they view it as a sort of black box that's out to get them rather than something a) totally public b) which can actually be used to your advantage if you get it.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1273248299361792000
Date: 2020-06-17 13:37:05 GMT
Replying to: @austerity_sucks (Tweet ID: 1273246627508166656)
Body: @austerity_sucks Ehh depends what "understand" means -- anyone who's familiar with finance will understand options broadly, but perpetual swaps aren't too well-known outside crypto. Also, lots of people definitely do not fully understand how funding works :P
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272915826148913153
Date: 2020-06-16 15:35:57 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1272913428584321026)
Body: @cmsholdings @SBF_Alameda Don’t think I’ve updated my resume since college but it prob would be.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272910546732347393
Date: 2020-06-16 15:14:58 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1272891794825646082)
Body: @cmsholdings @SBF_Alameda Did you know: I have the 8th highest lifetime Scrabble average of all NYT crossword constructors. https://t.co/wVZHKqK94A
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272828550580600835
Date: 2020-06-16 09:49:09 GMT
Replying to: @Multibagr (Tweet ID: 1272810318800891904)
Body: @Multibagr Might talk about a few more examples at some point, mostly they're not exactly for public consumption tho :P
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272828304475582471
Date: 2020-06-16 09:48:10 GMT
Replying to: @_CryptoCurator (Tweet ID: 1272826673826869248)
Body: @_CryptoCurator @VentureCoinist Not sure! I’d guess that as vol goes down and COVID goes away it’ll likely wane but impossible to be sure.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272611637761961986
Date: 2020-06-15 19:27:13 GMT
Replying to: @rugpullz (Tweet ID: 1272611436657770496)
Body: @FTTInvestor This is what I keep telling everyone but no one will listen.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272601570555817986
Date: 2020-06-15 18:47:12 GMT
Replying to: @ThinkingDYDX (Tweet ID: 1272601420634742785)
Body: @therealbudbot @SpinachTank :P We'll follow the market wherever it goes.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272601035089956865
Date: 2020-06-15 18:45:05 GMT
Replying to: @XtwoK20 (Tweet ID: 1272600811248521217)
Body: @XtwoK20 @SpinachTank Yep agreed that's when the effect started -- it waned a bit when SPX volatility died down but has been back since a few days ago.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272599193324974085
Date: 2020-06-15 18:37:46 GMT
Body: @SpinachTank It might not, but it wouldn't surprise me if people decided BTC didn't need to care about the broader market once COVID is over, for instance. (It didn't seem to care about it much pre-COVID.)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272598794106859523
Date: 2020-06-15 18:36:10 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272598611843354624)
Body: This'll probably keep happening -- until it doesn't, that is, which we'll need to watch carefully for (and hopefully watch for signs of so we can predict it!).
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272598611843354624
Date: 2020-06-15 18:35:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272598330418188289)
Body: And it's a self-fulfilling thing, too -- the more people notice "BTC follows SPX" the more it will (and the faster it will), and in particular right now people are expecting "high vol in SPX -> BTC will follow SPX" (or something like that).
Stats: 10 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272598330418188289
Date: 2020-06-15 18:34:20 GMT
Body: With the Fed's news, the BTC/SPX correlation has not only gotten stronger, it's gotten *faster* too. Which makes sense -- you'd expect that if the entire crypto market (or close, by volume) is trading vs. SPX, the BTC impact would be immediate, and that's what we're seeing now.
Stats: 35 likes, 3 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272589933501284354
Date: 2020-06-15 18:00:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272589718421516288)
Body: @Cryptoc_XBT But there's lots of idiosyncratic stuff that pops up that we don't expect to need to automate because of how one-off it is, and we get a lot of edge from the intuition our traders have watching / handling those events in real-time.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272589718421516288
Date: 2020-06-15 18:00:07 GMT
Replying to: @Cryptoc_XBT (Tweet ID: 1272588198695272452)
Body: @Cryptoc_XBT Sure, for things we expect to be relevant moving forward (and worth doing) we'll automate, that's what about half our traders focus on on average at a time.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272584820112019456
Date: 2020-06-15 17:40:39 GMT
Replying to: @cryptalista (Tweet ID: 1272583606234480640)
Body: @cryptalista I for one look forward to our new overlords.
Stats: 11 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272575703427379200
Date: 2020-06-15 17:04:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272575623257456640)
Body: I’m honestly baffled about what’s going on and am about 75% sure I have access to no such button, but I have seen other people’s pointers in dark mode, so who knows. (This sounds a little mean but I can’t pretend I don’t deserve it.) We have fun :P
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272575623257456640
Date: 2020-06-15 17:04:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272575570912690176)
Body: They decided to implement it but refuse to tell me how to enable it, claiming there’s a “hidden button” somewhere on all the pages that everyone can find but me.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272575570912690176
Date: 2020-06-15 17:03:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272574174603534336)
Body: Fun side note about pointer: all the pages are very bright, and I’ve been asking our devs to make a dark mode for a long time
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272575490243493888
Date: 2020-06-15 17:03:34 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272575323205275650)
Body: Which frees up our time to look for the next great effect that only a human is going to think of -- and that’s what we depend on. https://t.co/oYeEfM59rk
Stats: 23 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272575323205275650
Date: 2020-06-15 17:02:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272575055323521025)
Body: Often, when we have a stretch where our pointer desposes are great, it’ll be because a trader has had some insight they’re manually trading and we’ll work to get it into our bots -- that’s just what happened here, and we recently automated most of the trade being put on here.
Stats: 8 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272575055323521025
Date: 2020-06-15 17:01:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272574922569601026)
Body: There’s a million reasons we might change the pointer despos -- liquidation behavior a human has noticed, big order book update, some derivative premium has changed, USDT doing something idiosyncratic, perpetuals funding changing, delta opinion about the halving, etc. etc. etc.
Stats: 10 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272574922569601026
Date: 2020-06-15 17:01:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272574857843105793)
Body: Phew! Now that that’s explained, you can see that our pointer despos PNL on that day was pretty good! This was an especially good day for it, but it’s not too atypical -- most days from the past week or two have had similar trajectories.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272574857843105793
Date: 2020-06-15 17:01:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272574818181734400)
Body: Again, this doesn’t paint a *totally* complete picture (if we got net longer or shorter, we’ll likely close later and pay some small execution cost, e.g.), but we’ve found it a good proxy.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272574818181734400
Date: 2020-06-15 17:00:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272574722652270592)
Body: Then for each mark time we’re looking at, we look at what the position was worth that much time later, and that gives us the PNL we ascribe to the despos change.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272574722652270592
Date: 2020-06-15 17:00:31 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272574655270760448)
Body: (This isn’t exact because you can rarely know exactly which of hundreds of inputs caused the bot to do something, but we’ve found using it as a proxy to be reasonable.)
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272574655270760448
Date: 2020-06-15 17:00:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272574556880830469)
Body: How does the PNL graph get generated? Basically, we ascribe some set of trades that we did as having happened due to the despos changes.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272574556880830469
Date: 2020-06-15 16:59:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272574431471140864)
Body: When we change the DELTA_ALL despos, that affects *all* our quotes (except something like USDT/USD which doesn't really have BTC exposure). This is something we touch manually quite often, since we really often want to “buy crypto” or “sell crypto.”
Stats: 8 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272574431471140864
Date: 2020-06-15 16:59:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272574330195464192)
Body: DELTA_ALL is our measure of “overall crypto exposure.” The gist of it is: using recent historical correlation (basically), we give each coin a beta to BTC, then add that up for every coin we trade, and that’s our DELTA_ALL (so named because it’s the delta of all our positions).
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272574330195464192
Date: 2020-06-15 16:58:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272574249354452994)
Body: A despos can be set for anything -- something specific like “BTC 0626 quarterlies on FTX,” something broader like “all BTC perpetuals,” and something even broader like “all BTC products.” The one here, though, is the broadest that any our systems support -- DELTA_ALL.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272574249354452994
Date: 2020-06-15 16:58:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272574174603534336)
Body: Many different sources can contribute desposes to the bots -- many are automated, but the “pointer desposes” (the ones set in pointer) are 100% manual and are how our traders enact their desires to buy or sell a given product or set of products.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272574174603534336
Date: 2020-06-15 16:58:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272574109700911104)
Body: Next, pointer: this is the name of our internal trading system. It’s where we monitor our bots’ trades, see/edit parameters, see markets, and can execute manual trades as well. One set of parameters we update all the time are the pointer desposes.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272574109700911104
Date: 2020-06-15 16:58:05 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272574003245248513)
Body: First, despos: this is our internal shorthand for “desired position,” and is something we use to encourage our bots to buy or sell. If we increase our desired position, our bots will become more set up to buy (fading our quotes up), and vice-versa.
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272574003245248513
Date: 2020-06-15 16:57:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272573908684685318)
Body: This is a graph of the PNL from trading we ascribe to “DELTA_ALL pointer despos” changes (and it’s marked to 5 different end times, 1, 5, 15, 60, and 360 minutes later). What does that mean?
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272573908684685318
Date: 2020-06-15 16:57:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272573776627040258)
Body: Every day we generate lots of these graphs for different segments of our trading to try to understand how things have been going lately -- we might split out by underlying coin, exchange, spot/perpetuals/quarterlies, which strategy it was, etc.
Stats: 14 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272573776627040258
Date: 2020-06-15 16:56:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1272573556816146432)
Body: So behold: one of our internal PNL graphs: https://t.co/IphQsdYTgJ
Stats: 25 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272573556816146432
Date: 2020-06-15 16:55:53 GMT
Body: I’ve mentioned a number of times how Alameda relies really heavily on human decision making, and we’d be significantly less profitable if we just let our bots run free. I thought I’d take a chance to explain one way in which that’s directly true.
Stats: 193 likes, 34 retweets, 9 quote tweets, 7 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272566023791640576
Date: 2020-06-15 16:25:57 GMT
Quoted tweet: @VentureCoinist: You can watch the new episode with @AlamedaTrabucco on youtube now.
•Breakdown of the wonky $BTC moves last week
•What open interest can hint for the market
•The impact of offering leverage for altcoins
•Quant desks betting on sports
right here: https://t.co/wmLDssAbb1 https://t.co/uABJUGh51B
Body: Nice, the screenshot here indicates my disdain for the BTC move I'm looking at. https://t.co/XF9x2ou0av
Stats: 15 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272487911972192256
Date: 2020-06-15 11:15:34 GMT
Replying to: @rugpullz (Tweet ID: 1272396883370160129)
Body: @FTTInvestor SPX did it first.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1272152903436734465
Date: 2020-06-14 13:04:22 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1272152045181644801)
Body: @cmsholdings Put white out on 200 bees and demonstrate what happens on average and we can talk.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1271725110039207937
Date: 2020-06-13 08:44:28 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1271701213457743873)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @SlumdogCapital I once wrote a crossword with a number of sports references: https://t.co/4XzP2MuXMp
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1271571320484933633
Date: 2020-06-12 22:33:22 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1271570813427146752)
Body: @SBF_Alameda @SlumdogCapital Argumentum ad populum, classic.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1271569984943083520
Date: 2020-06-12 22:28:03 GMT
Replying to: @AkagamiCapital (Tweet ID: 1271562391877111809)
Body: @SlumdogCapital i urge respondents to consider which of us is most likely to spent a random minute anywhere but our office
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1271497003059392513
Date: 2020-06-12 17:38:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1271471335445692417)
Body: Don't say I didn't warn you! SPX -> 3k and BTC hot on its heels.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1271483989203668993
Date: 2020-06-12 16:46:20 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1271482291597049856)
Body: @cmsholdings That you trade crypto would be hard to discern from your recent twitter activity :P
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 5 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1271482602659045377
Date: 2020-06-12 16:40:50 GMT
Replying to: @_JFSM_ (Tweet ID: 1271480143194832896)
Body: @_JFSM_ Yeah it's not exact (agreed other effects like "BTC sellers at 10k" seem to exist), but even today as SPX has recovered so too has BTC, so there's likely something bi-directional at least.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1271471335445692417
Date: 2020-06-12 15:56:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1271470991869218818)
Body: Morale of the story, I'm quitting Alameda to become a novelist, sorry @SBF_Alameda. https://t.co/qabTMLnv3F
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1271470677413916672
Date: 2020-06-12 15:53:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1271469599200997376)
Body: Narrative building is a more powerful tool than it seems, in my experience. Almost all the good medium-term (timeline ~ hours/a day) trades I've ever done have been based on a narrative that's a) plausible b) can apply to a large fraction of the market c) "mathematically sound"
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1271469599200997376
Date: 2020-06-12 15:49:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1271469246497906693)
Body: And the fact that BTC only started to revert back up when SPX did again indicates there's real buyers on the SPX move -- when there's a compelling reason for a large fraction of the market to make a trade (tracking SPX) there's a lot lower chance for fast / complete reversion.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1271469246497906693
Date: 2020-06-12 15:47:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1271468575748841473)
Body: Note also that this caused the first (sort of) sustained move BTC has had in > a week -- over the past week we've seen lots of liquidation-driven moves followed quickly by reversion, but the fact that the move down stuck (for a day) indicates real sellers.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1271468575748841473
Date: 2020-06-12 15:45:05 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: This brings up something important: BTC and e.g. SPX have been less correlated lately, but assuming they'll remain that way when they were really recently quite correlated is likely a mistake. What matters most here is understanding *why* they got correlated in March. https://t.co/T9lYKmRXJY
Body: I think this has been borne out over the past few days -- SPX tanked and people were all talking about it again, and BTC developed a SPX correlation again. We'll see what happens going forward! https://t.co/RGWC0YVWFV
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1271168124348362757
Date: 2020-06-11 19:51:12 GMT
Replying to: @rugpullz (Tweet ID: 1271166908075827201)
Body: @FTTInvestor @SBF_Alameda My main thought re: SPX is something like "BTC has SPX correlation when SPX is doing something sorta weird vs. its recent behavior, it was trending up sorta slowly so no one cared and then went down fast so people do care again." Really unsure though.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1271166533020991488
Date: 2020-06-11 19:44:53 GMT
Replying to: @rugpullz (Tweet ID: 1271166052320325632)
Body: @FTTInvestor @SBF_Alameda It trended up fairly recently IIRC.
And yeah the renewed SPX correlation is interesting, still not sure what to think about that yet.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1271140817852174337
Date: 2020-06-11 18:02:42 GMT
Quoted tweet: @VentureCoinist: New episode just dropped w/ @AlamedaTrabucco , quantitative trader at Alameda Research.
•Insight into wonky Bitcoin moves
•Trading exotic assets
•The effect of margin on altcoin markets
Always enjoy getting the chance to learn from this team. Enjoy!
https://t.co/9XRMUaVilC https://t.co/lIOXI7J1dT
Body: Fun chat! Hope there’s some good info in here. https://t.co/q0dTFJHVfV
Stats: 12 likes, 2 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270807689816190976
Date: 2020-06-10 19:58:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270806079325143040)
Body: @MonkeyCharts @SBF_Alameda @SBF_Alameda greedily claimed the name so the new guy and I both go by last name :(
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270806079325143040
Date: 2020-06-10 19:52:34 GMT
Replying to: @MonkeyCharts (Tweet ID: 1270804203468926976)
Body: @MonkeyCharts @SBF_Alameda As of last month we have a third Sam now!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270801236866940929
Date: 2020-06-10 19:33:19 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1270799875266023426)
Body: @cmsholdings @VentureCoinist @CoinistPodcast brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270797476002279424
Date: 2020-06-10 19:18:23 GMT
Quoted tweet: @VentureCoinist: Really excited to record a new episode of the @CoinistPodcast with Sam tonight about these wonky moves that have been happening nonstop for $BTC.
Sam is a quant trader at Alameda.
What questions do you have for him? https://t.co/gNPharREpV
Body: My favorite topic :P excited for this! https://t.co/gU6owBRc2A
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270797147277897729
Date: 2020-06-10 19:17:04 GMT
Replying to: @baldcall (Tweet ID: 1270796605680054272)
Body: @richardpop3 Not sure! Most of the moves we've seen have had characteristics of mean reversion, but that's the sort of thing that's "true until it isn't" and looking for deviation from that pattern is what I'll be focusing a ton of time on.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270796178645368833
Date: 2020-06-10 19:13:13 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270795821735276545)
Body: Tale as old as time
Song as old as rhyme
Beauty and the BitMEX liquidation engine https://t.co/WK2JtoiPEd
Stats: 19 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270795821735276545
Date: 2020-06-10 19:11:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270795582529867777)
Body: And those poor, sad levered longs had nowhere to hide as they IMMEDIATELY got liquidated because of that resistance, driving the price WAY lower than it started (if only for a brief moment, rife for MMs and those with quick trading setups to snap up.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270795582529867777
Date: 2020-06-10 19:10:51 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270795450715475968)
Body: But we've tested 10k a few times now, and each time there's been at least SOME resistance -- easy to expect some this time too, which happened.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270795450715475968
Date: 2020-06-10 19:10:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270795069126135808)
Body: The price got briefly above 10k on the back of lots of really aggressive, likely high-leveraged buyers (and the mini-string of cascading liquidations they brought with them).
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270795069126135808
Date: 2020-06-10 19:08:49 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Now I'm *really* excited to talk about this considering that high-levered trading and its idiosyncrasies was likely fully responsible for the wonky moves in the markets in the past day :P https://t.co/RKXAPlaxQZ
Body: Didn't we JUST talk about this? The same thing happened again and drove the price nonsense that just went down. https://t.co/asQhNXt2aq https://t.co/VitVMmK1wK
Stats: 39 likes, 6 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270078190979956736
Date: 2020-06-08 19:40:12 GMT
Replying to: @cryptorewind (Tweet ID: 1270076427400916992)
Body: @sourcex44 Well the rampant liquidations do help :P
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270072390295236609
Date: 2020-06-08 19:17:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270072301170507776)
Body: So I’m (begrudgingly) not ending my Bloomberg subscription -- the past few months should teach us to be vigilant about crypto becoming dependent on other markets in ways we’re not used to, and expecting that not to be true post-COVID is asking for trouble.
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270072301170507776
Date: 2020-06-08 19:16:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270072189992099845)
Body: Or to develop a new relationship with it! It’s 2020 and relationships are more fluid than ever. https://t.co/EinJelJ5XL
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270072189992099845
Date: 2020-06-08 19:16:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270072140188971008)
Body: That doesn’t mean, though, that BTC and SPX’s relationship is over -- there’s likely going to be *some* lasting effect here (which might decay out and might not), and if SPX gets hot again, it won’t surprise me at all for BTC to track it closely again.
Stats: 7 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270072140188971008
Date: 2020-06-08 19:16:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270072081007276032)
Body: And so as SPX (and oil, and other traditional products) gets less hot and every market in the world doesn’t need to care so much about it, other effects can take over BTC’s price -- the halving, ETH 2.0, “the whales,” whatever normally drives BTC’s price can do so again.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270072081007276032
Date: 2020-06-08 19:15:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270072028465254400)
Body: Note that SPX was not the only hot product BTC picked up correlation to -- there were points when Oil was hotter than SPX, and during that period there were many times when Oil was a better predictor for BTC than SPX was.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270072028465254400
Date: 2020-06-08 19:15:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270071959582171136)
Body: And once we know that BTC is going to be super correlated to SPX, it makes sense that that correlation would be high when SPX’s volatility was high, and would diminish afterward -- the volatility was most of what drove SPX being hot.
Stats: 5 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270071959582171136
Date: 2020-06-08 19:15:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270071877067616256)
Body: It soon became clear that the market was not considering Bitcoin as a flight to safety -- and that makes sense. People were de-risking amidst wild market volatility and a global pandemic -- the last place they wanted their money was “on the internet.”
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270071877067616256
Date: 2020-06-08 19:15:06 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270071804422324225)
Body: The question a priori is *how* each market will react -- you can imagine most will be correlated with it, but “flight to safety” assets can also develop strong negative correlations with SPX, for instance. Before March, which Bitcoin was going to be was a real question.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270071804422324225
Date: 2020-06-08 19:14:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270071753088233472)
Body: When “the economy” is moving %s a day in either direction, reaching price bands (something I used to treat more as a “gotcha!” for the Series tests I took once upon a time than a real possibility for “the economy” in a day), *every* market needs to react to it.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270071753088233472
Date: 2020-06-08 19:14:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270071645747597312)
Body: On a base level, what happened was: SPX got hot. *Everyone* was watching it, and it was super volatile (shitcoins had nothing on it for a few weeks there). Every news outlet was talking about it, and no picture of the state of the world was complete without it.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270071645747597312
Date: 2020-06-08 19:14:11 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1270071520463732737)
Body: The biggest reason is of course something like “COVID,” but there’s more nuance to it than that. COVID and the pursuant financial meltdown had obvious impacts on every market one might associate with “the economy” -- let’s use SPX as the best example.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270071520463732737
Date: 2020-06-08 19:13:41 GMT
Quoted tweet: @krakenfx: Is #Bitcoin uncorrelated?
In May, $BTC's correlation with the S&P 500 fell to its lowest level since early February.
Get more insights in our new intelligence report 👇
https://t.co/qQeEAC7S86 https://t.co/rAzBED8diN
Body: This brings up something important: BTC and e.g. SPX have been less correlated lately, but assuming they'll remain that way when they were really recently quite correlated is likely a mistake. What matters most here is understanding *why* they got correlated in March. https://t.co/T9lYKmRXJY
Stats: 27 likes, 4 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1270021526591401984
Date: 2020-06-08 15:55:02 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1269979258161487873)
Body: @SBF_Alameda This is no crimson logo.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1268551541675491330
Date: 2020-06-04 14:33:50 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1268513013843275776)
Body: @cmsholdings @krakenfx Isn't Kraken supporting ERC20 USDT the exact opposite of your prediction.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1268404092717527042
Date: 2020-06-04 04:47:56 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1268249530077675534)
Body: @cmsholdings Varies across exchange but yeah most of them seem largely unchanged to me :P
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1268093457270075393
Date: 2020-06-03 08:13:34 GMT
Replying to: @wonderingBit (Tweet ID: 1268090040271294464)
Body: @degen_Coder Vs. something like giant bids that never trade — this was a bid that stepped up, getting filled partially then in full.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1268082491790778368
Date: 2020-06-03 07:30:00 GMT
Replying to: @SBF_FTX (Tweet ID: 1268078113335861248)
Body: @SBF_Alameda C'mon it's only like 30% of OI that gets liquidated at a time.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1267848044185149440
Date: 2020-06-02 15:58:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1267847755944222720)
Body: So BTC reverted a bit and those levered longs got liquidated -- and now BTC is right back where it started a few days ago. https://t.co/NNMUynbGrj
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1267847755944222720
Date: 2020-06-02 15:57:15 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1267847432261394435)
Body: Aggression like that can often correlate with high leverage and a propensity for getting liquidated if BTC goes back down a bit -- which is just what'll happen after BTC rallies too much and some amount of organic selling has to happen.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1267847432261394435
Date: 2020-06-02 15:55:57 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1267846726234169344)
Body: Despite all the buying liquidations earlier (which naturally eats up the open interest on BitMEX), open interest actually went UP during the BTC rally. That means that the market was likely opening lots of contracts, likely buying them fairly aggressively.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1267846726234169344
Date: 2020-06-02 15:53:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1267846352207147015)
Body: Note that it's REALLY weird that there were tons of liquidations in *both* directions in such a short span of time -- and, in retrospect, there are some clues it might happen.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1267846352207147015
Date: 2020-06-02 15:51:40 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1267846085206085632)
Body: (Liquidity is still pretty low today, especially after tons of orders get swept up in the initial liquidations, which lets the latter ones reach such ludicrous prices that are so disjointed from other markets.)
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1267846085206085632
Date: 2020-06-02 15:50:36 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1267845694125043720)
Body: The answer is, again, TONS of liquidations on the BTC perps on BitMEX. $100m+ of open interest got wiped away as they fell from 10100 or so to their nadir at 8600 (!!!) before recovering quite a bit back to 9500, where we sit now. https://t.co/qnMs8k6sAs
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1267845694125043720
Date: 2020-06-02 15:49:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1267845414910177280)
Body: So that explains why, for instance, BTC might fall back below 10k, but not the giant crash that happened right afterward. Why'd that happen?
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1267844838403174400
Date: 2020-06-02 15:45:39 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1267844399720853506)
Body: That drove the BitMEX perps from 9800 to their peak around 10500 (the organic buying was on BitMEX, and that's where a TON of liquidations got triggered). https://t.co/1deByhgqDW
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1267844399720853506
Date: 2020-06-02 15:43:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1267842924378591234)
Body: My tl;dr of what happened: there was (real / organic) buying this morning which triggered a ton of buying liquidations (mostly because the buying demand dwarfed the uncharacteristically low liquidity in the markets at the time).
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1267842924378591234
Date: 2020-06-02 15:38:03 GMT
Quoted tweet: @AlamedaTrabucco: Excited to join this panel to discuss leveraged trading — should be interesting! Sad to lose the “what does he sound like” mystique though. https://t.co/3H2IX9IgC7
Body: Now I'm *really* excited to talk about this considering that high-levered trading and its idiosyncrasies was likely fully responsible for the wonky moves in the markets in the past day :P https://t.co/RKXAPlaxQZ
Stats: 30 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1267445682090192898
Date: 2020-06-01 13:19:33 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoBlt (Tweet ID: 1267444387748904961)
Body: @CryptoBlt Never trust a PDF written in Word.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1267442808970854400
Date: 2020-06-01 13:08:08 GMT
Quoted tweet: @SBF_FTX: The FTX Monthly Report for May is out!
Including shoutouts to @cmsholdings, @AlamedaTrabucco, and @matt_levine
https://t.co/EWBrd6LCFR
Body: Nice read! https://t.co/WlvVPp1Gad
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1266000643560374272
Date: 2020-05-28 13:37:29 GMT
Replying to: @SargunGulati (Tweet ID: 1265999657223651331)
Body: @sargun64984639 The gap will likely close immediately once anyone can transfer THETA to the rich exchanges.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265985550093127680
Date: 2020-05-28 12:37:30 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoRektio (Tweet ID: 1265977369963237377)
Body: @CryptoRektio Yeah sounds plausible for the behavior right once e.g. Binance opens withdrawals. The price discovery will be interesting to see.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265985037863759872
Date: 2020-05-28 12:35:28 GMT
Replying to: @CryptoChris3 (Tweet ID: 1265984335955419138)
Body: @CryptoChris3 @SBF_Alameda Only an arb if you can close it! If these prices persisted once the exchanges open deposits and withdrawals I'd agree.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265984691779153920
Date: 2020-05-28 12:34:06 GMT
Replying to: @donalddumpz96 (Tweet ID: 1265984117629497344)
Body: @donalddumpz96 Eh I mean there are lots of plausible systems, I don't think a TWAP is "worse" on average, in particular. So long as the system an exchange uses is a) 100% public b) reasonable, I think it's hard to argue it's unfair.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265984414091116547
Date: 2020-05-28 12:32:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265983514769412096)
Body: @donalddumpz96 Though I would note that funding (both its values and how they're calculated) is 100% public on FTX, which makes out-of-line funding actually a great trading opportunity for anyone.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265983514769412096
Date: 2020-05-28 12:29:25 GMT
Replying to: @donalddumpz96 (Tweet ID: 1265983068243886081)
Body: @donalddumpz96 I've got 0 to do with how any exchange's funding system works.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265983324637388800
Date: 2020-05-28 12:28:40 GMT
Replying to: @donalddumpz96 (Tweet ID: 1265982800634806273)
Body: @donalddumpz96 I agree it's died down a lot since it got rich (a sign that the "fair price" is likely south of Huobi's, as indicated by futures markets), but they definitely had real volume e.g. in the past day: https://t.co/dg7qwnAv2v
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265974709247553541
Date: 2020-05-28 11:54:26 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265974650527313920)
Body: And the situation is more complicated, anyway -- the exchanges will unlock at different times, funding can get wonky, other exchanges exist, etc. I’m looking forward to seeing how it shakes out!
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265974650527313920
Date: 2020-05-28 11:54:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265974529836236802)
Body: Combining estimates for where spot will go once transfers get enabled and estimates for how long that will take gets you to a fairly reasonable place for pricing all the products -- but lots of estimates are reasonable, which explains why there’s been so much trading!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265974529836236802
Date: 2020-05-28 11:53:43 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265974453416034304)
Body: For instance, if we expect to collect this sort of funding 1 more time vs. 50 more times, the price at which we’re willing to buy the perp should change a ton -- and the exchanges haven’t really given guidance here, so it’s a big unknown.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265974453416034304
Date: 2020-05-28 11:53:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265974220342784000)
Body: In addition to where THETA itself is “fair” (FTX perps are trading under the index, so there’s some implication about e.g. Binance vs. Huobi people are making in pricing it that way), how long we expect the transfer blocks to go on has lots of impact here.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265974220342784000
Date: 2020-05-28 11:52:29 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265974044471332864)
Body: Related to how to price THETA: how do you price FTX’s THETA perps? The FTX index is ⅓ Binance, OKEx, and Huobi’s USDT markets (with some maximum divergence from the median). It also isn’t capping funding -- right now, the predicted funding is 30bp -> longs in a few minutes.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265974044471332864
Date: 2020-05-28 11:51:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265973888220987392)
Body: We can also look at past examples of similar phenomena -- e.g. coins have been deposit-blocked on liquid exchanges before, and looking at what happens on average after the blocks get lifted might provide some clues here. But this is definitely idiosyncratic in some ways.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265973888220987392
Date: 2020-05-28 11:51:10 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265973786261643265)
Body: Maybe something reasonable might be to weight by THETA volume in the past few days? Or total spot volume overall, or total spot volume in some set of coins “similar” to THETA in some way? Not sure! This is one of the biggest questions to answer in pricing THETA.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265973786261643265
Date: 2020-05-28 11:50:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265973684704927744)
Body: That doesn’t mean we should expect Huobi and OKEx to just fall to the level where Binance THETA is trading immediately once transfers unlock -- it’s a lot less clear how much buying pressure exists on Huobi and OKEx, for instance, a few cents lower.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265973684704927744
Date: 2020-05-28 11:50:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265973383352643586)
Body: It’s thus likely that THETA price discovery among those using Binance has already occurred, because it *is* possible to short-sell perps there and they’re close to in line with each other. So, there should exist nonzero sell pressure e.g. 25% higher among those people.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265973383352643586
Date: 2020-05-28 11:49:09 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265973172202950659)
Body: It’s not clear, but the Binance perps do provide a clue. We’ve actually been unable to unearth exactly what Binance is using as an index for their THETA perps, but it’s been trading close to in line with spot on Binance spot (the index is probably just Binance spot).
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265973172202950659
Date: 2020-05-28 11:48:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265973058377879552)
Body: Presumably, we can expect that some fraction of THETA holders on Binance will send their coins to OKEx and Huobi aiming to sell into richer bids than were available on Binance. How aggressively will they be willing to sell?
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265973058377879552
Date: 2020-05-28 11:47:52 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265973000416837632)
Body: Let’s suppose that all three of those exchanges turned transfers back on at once. What should we expect to happen?
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265973000416837632
Date: 2020-05-28 11:47:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265972889435508736)
Body: This is seemingly what’s happened -- Huobi’s sellers got more overwhelmed by buyers than OKEx’s or Binance’s, so it’s price is the highest. And none of the exchanges had a ton of spot sitting around in the first place, so this isn’t a big surprise.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265972889435508736
Date: 2020-05-28 11:47:12 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265972797618057218)
Body: None of these exchanges offers THETA lending, so when THETA gets rich on one of them, there’s a limited supply of THETA to sell into it. If natural sellers on that exchange dry up, nothing can happen -- it just trades rich on the exchange where that occurs.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265972797618057218
Date: 2020-05-28 11:46:50 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265972691648917504)
Body: The spot exchanges got disjointed because deposits and withdrawals were blocked across the board because of THETA’s main net upgrade. This means “arbs” can arise that would normally get closed by someone buying on the cheap exchanges and selling on the rich ones.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265972691648917504
Date: 2020-05-28 11:46:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265972571037564930)
Body: So how do you price this thing? To be honest, the short answer is “who the fuck knows,” but here are some thoughts.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265972571037564930
Date: 2020-05-28 11:45:56 GMT
Body: THETA is THE TAlk of the town -- the three biggest spot exchanges where it trades are totally disjointed (right now it’s trading .44 on Huobi, .39 on OKEx, and .34 on Binance). Binance perps hit their max funding, and FTX perps have been paying a lot to longs. https://t.co/v8k6qIOKE3
Stats: 39 likes, 6 retweets, 3 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265590458203254784
Date: 2020-05-27 10:27:33 GMT
Replying to: @NaiveKrypto (Tweet ID: 1265453952960618496)
Body: @NaiveKrypto Oh was just picking specifics randomly -- some reasons that might arise are BTC futures got really cheap so we needed more collateral there to buy, BTC/USDT is super rich on Huobi, etc. But that example wasn't based on something specific.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265373927615807491
Date: 2020-05-26 20:07:08 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265373633003704320)
Body: Anyway, this was really high-level and I’ll try to talk about more specifics re: all these topics some time. Just wanted to give a broad overview of what Alameda’s trading is like -- and how it’s the marriage of human thinking and computing power that gives us our edge.
Stats: 20 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265373633003704320
Date: 2020-05-26 20:05:58 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265373278735970305)
Body: These days are why I LOVE crypto trading -- someone’s always screaming what we need to do (“BUY ANYWHERE WE CAN!”, “SEND ALL OUR FREE BTC TO HUOBI!”, “BORROW AS MUCH F%^%ING USDT AS WE CAN!!!”) and everyone feels urgent -- because everyone is.
Stats: 11 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265373278735970305
Date: 2020-05-26 20:04:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265373041027985409)
Body: So we override lots of things with super aggressive parameters by hand when we KNOW we understand e.g. BitMEX liquidation behavior better than both the market and our bots, and positioning correctly can be the difference between making or losing 5% on a huge position.
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265373041027985409
Date: 2020-05-26 20:03:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265372808466403328)
Body: And this is just on “typical days” -- during the most insane 1% of trading, we know our models are trained much more for median behavior and we don’t expect them to perform perfectly.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265372808466403328
Date: 2020-05-26 20:02:41 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265372529935319040)
Body: All of our “truffle sniffing” is also pretty much just manual -- stuff like rooting through exchange margin minutiae, searching for rare super valuable arbs, checking whether every last dumb-sounding opportunity is actually great. This can feel thankless, but often turns up gold.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265372529935319040
Date: 2020-05-26 20:01:35 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265372236807958528)
Body: Additionally, a ton of our capital management is done manually -- from determining the most profitable opportunities and sending capital there to take advantage, to analyzing where we need to send capital to mitigate risk, to figuring out where we need money to settle OTC trades.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265372236807958528
Date: 2020-05-26 20:00:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265372005802500096)
Body: How long or short to be, for instance, is mostly determined manually -- sometimes we’ll want to hedge something specific, or have some idiosyncratic reason we believe we have an edge in making directional bets (understanding funding or options expiration flow, e.g.).
Stats: 6 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265371725803384832
Date: 2020-05-26 19:58:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265371513949052928)
Body: (Also, while I’m saying “man” for rhetorical reasons, I should note that Alameda’s trading team bucks industry trends by being something like 20% women, which is part of what makes it by far my favorite trading environment I’ve ever worked in.)
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265371513949052928
Date: 2020-05-26 19:57:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265371226265882629)
Body: But while machines underpin most of our trading, man is still a key piece. Every day, our trading team makes hundreds of on-the-fly decisions which we consider essential, and without which it’s clear we could never maintain the success we have.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265371226265882629
Date: 2020-05-26 19:56:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265371074146922496)
Body: And, at the end of the day, doing a lot of market making and trading every major product on every major exchange is always going to require your set up to be largely algorithmic.
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265371074146922496
Date: 2020-05-26 19:55:48 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265370308141215744)
Body: We also spend a lot of time optimizing specifically for robustness -- if our bots work perfectly 99% of the time and fail unpredictably 1% of the time, trying to trade as much as we do can expose us to a lot of downside, so we have to avoid it.
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265370116687949825
Date: 2020-05-26 19:51:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265369710469636096)
Body: On the machines’ side, the vast majority of our trades are done by automated strategies we call bots. A lot of the work we do is in optimizing those bots -- finding and optimizing data sources, implementing and refining trading strategies, etc.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265369710469636096
Date: 2020-05-26 19:50:23 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1265369446824075265)
Body: People hear that Alameda’s trading is “quantitative” and often assume that means nothing we do is manual, and all of our trading centers around automation. While we fairly rarely e.g. use an exchange’s website to place orders, we do a lot I’d call manual, too.
Stats: 9 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1265369446824075265
Date: 2020-05-26 19:49:20 GMT
Quoted tweet: @FTX_Official: Starting on May 27th Hong Kong Time!
👀👀 details: https://t.co/s7h1WvDA5R
Are you Man (or Machine) enough? https://t.co/MosgOeu5M4
Body: Alameda won't be participating in this, but it does present a chance to explain how we think about the value of man vs. machine in our trading. https://t.co/62yGWAS1C3
Stats: 42 likes, 10 retweets, 2 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264509400636461056
Date: 2020-05-24 10:51:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1264509203009294341)
Body: Going forward, when evaluating whether to buy coins when a new listing’s been announced, that’s the sort of thing I’m going to look out for -- does this *specific* exchange listing this *specific* coin carry weight? Answering yes is, I think, critical for the trade to be good.
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264509203009294341
Date: 2020-05-24 10:51:02 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1264509015855251462)
Body: So sentiment around a coin that does manage to get listed there might be abnormally positive, causing lots of net buying. Also, OMG in particular might have negative characteristics that a Coinbase listing helps dissipate.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264509015855251462
Date: 2020-05-24 10:50:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1264508799160729600)
Body: A few factors might have contributed -- the exchange doing the listing was Coinbase, and there’s a sense that a coin really needs to jump through a lot of hoops to get listed there -- during “alt season” they listed basically nothing.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264508799160729600
Date: 2020-05-24 10:49:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1264508631405322240)
Body: Which loops back to the OMG rally -- why did that happen if this effect is basically over? How possible was it to predict in advance?
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264508631405322240
Date: 2020-05-24 10:48:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1264507767219347457)
Body: Around May 2018, the effect where new listings always caused coins to surge dissipated -- alt season was over, and exchanges stopped listing so many coins. Now it’s fairly rare for a new listing to come with such fanfare, and buying (even fast) doesn’t tend to be worth it.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264507767219347457
Date: 2020-05-24 10:45:19 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1264507452705275904)
Body: This was lots of fun -- I had alerts set up such that I’d get awoken no matter when this happened, and more than once I had to rush home to deal with some giant shitcoin position (my friends never did get used to my habit of abandoning them for this :P).
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264507452705275904
Date: 2020-05-24 10:44:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1264507250262958080)
Body: And that meant that, if you had money on lots of other exchanges, you could set up algorithms to buy the coins immediately, before the rest of the world knew and started buying as well (though it was key to be careful with size and aggressiveness).
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264507250262958080
Date: 2020-05-24 10:43:16 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1264507059208216576)
Body: So if you learned the format of the listing announcement posts and really frequently scraped the exchange blogs for it, you could be (essentially) the first person in the world to learn the *public* information that a coin was listing on a major exchange!
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264507059208216576
Date: 2020-05-24 10:42:30 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1264506873513783296)
Body: And the exchanges did a shockingly good job at keeping these things under wraps (even from the coin projects themselves!). Virtually every time, there was no sign of any pre-impacting -- the blog post was truly the first time anyone in the market knew.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264506873513783296
Date: 2020-05-24 10:41:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1264506692164710402)
Body: So, how do you know sooner? It turns out that, for a lot of exchanges, the answer was the exchange’s blog. The first time the market could find out about a Binance listing, for example, was the post they made on their blog announcing the listing.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264506692164710402
Date: 2020-05-24 10:41:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1264506543375962112)
Body: How to capitalize, though? It turns out the rallies happened *fast* -- in almost every case, using naive means of knowing about the listings was way too slow to make any trades, and buying by the times e.g. the exchange tweeted about it was very negative EV.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264506543375962112
Date: 2020-05-24 10:40:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1264506404573810688)
Body: This was true for all the exchanges with significant volume -- back then, think Bittrex/Upbit, Bithumb, OKEx, Huobi, and then-up-and-comer Binance (as well as many others).
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264506404573810688
Date: 2020-05-24 10:39:54 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1264506187120173056)
Body: And, to be clear, I think these price increases were pretty organic -- it makes a lot of sense that getting listed on a major exchange should come with an increase in access for people who might be interested in buying (and an increase in people knowing you even exist).
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264506187120173056
Date: 2020-05-24 10:39:03 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1264505960803917825)
Body: Back during late 2017 and early 2018 (during “alt season”), exchanges were listing coins left and right, and new projects were salivating at the chance to get listed on major exchanges. Without fail, getting listed on a hot exchange came with huge (often lasting) price impact.
Stats: 2 likes, 1 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264505960803917825
Date: 2020-05-24 10:38:09 GMT
Body: OMG went on a tear ever since Coinbase announced it’d be listing (and especially after the listing itself) -- I don’t have much opinion about its price moving forward, but this does call to mind one of my favorite old trades that’s (mostly) gone by the wayside. https://t.co/UaRTiNBWuD
Stats: 24 likes, 5 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 3 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1264248495948455936
Date: 2020-05-23 17:35:04 GMT
Replying to: @KoomoKumo (Tweet ID: 1264013403527409664)
Body: @KoomoKumo @SBF_Alameda Haha it was sort of tongue-in-cheek / on some level intended as a broad-strokes litmus test for "is there any potential here?"
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263850146992844802
Date: 2020-05-22 15:12:10 GMT
Replying to: @cyrii_MM (Tweet ID: 1263844004959006720)
Body: @cyrii_MM Yeah in general separating price moves into different sorts of intuitively logical categories (liquidation-driven, inflow/outflow-driven from different parts of the world, BTC- or altcoin-driven, etc.) can be productive, and liquidity surrounding price moves is related.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263845903799947264
Date: 2020-05-22 14:55:19 GMT
Replying to: @cyrii_MM (Tweet ID: 1263844885062434817)
Body: @cyrii_MM I think BTC gaining fundamental characteristics of more traditional products (e.g. "mainstream" acceptance, like you note) will likely mean it becomes like them in more quantitative ways too, e.g. lower volatility. Not sure I'd necessarily expect more mean reversion though.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263844147191930881
Date: 2020-05-22 14:48:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263843881449164800)
Body: I’m not sure yet, but it’s definitely an area where understanding the evolving fundamentals about the crypto market, as well as about the global financial landscape, is critical, and a purely quantitative approach is unlikely to bear fruit.
Stats: 12 likes, 1 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263843881449164800
Date: 2020-05-22 14:47:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263843642189332481)
Body: And has the answer to that question changed at all because of the recent market volatility, and the events that caused it? It’s hard not to think we’re in a different paradigm than ever before because of COVID, so can a study using historical data even possibly help here?
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263843642189332481
Date: 2020-05-22 14:46:20 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263843399884398592)
Body: Ignoring the over-simplicity of this study and the vapidity of the quoted conversation (I won’t confirm or deny whether one of its speakers was me), there are important ideas here -- is there a force which compels BTC to have some baseline price it returns to?
Stats: 7 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263843399884398592
Date: 2020-05-22 14:45:22 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263843194891931648)
Body: (A compelling snippet from that argument:
“The drop from $10k -> $8800 was dumb”
“The rally to $10k was dumb”
“It was post-COVID recovery”
“COVID isn’t over”
“Other markets recovered though”
“Which is dumb”)
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263843194891931648
Date: 2020-05-22 14:44:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263843051824271362)
Body: This study was borne out of an argument about the extent to which we should expect BTC to be prone to mean reversion over the coming months, and whether there are features of the market that have changed that should lead this to be more or less true than it has been.
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263843051824271362
Date: 2020-05-22 14:43:59 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263842905560461313)
Body: So we don’t plan to just sell above $8k and buy below there (and, to be clear, that’s not what I’m advocating anyone do). It is kind of cool, though, that the model “BTC = $8000” would have been an improvement over a baseline for the past 2 years.
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263842905560461313
Date: 2020-05-22 14:43:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263842712094048256)
Body: Further, blindly trusting a study like this would ignore context -- for instance, we can explain some of the recent trading around $8k as “BTC was above $8k when COVID happened so it fell below $8k and then recovered when the other markets did.”
Stats: 9 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263842712094048256
Date: 2020-05-22 14:42:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263842501053431810)
Body: This is flawed for a number of reasons. For instance, it’s pretty (intentionally) cherry-picked -- it looks a lot different using years other than those featured, and the $8k baseline was chosen a posteriori which is bad practice.
Stats: 15 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263842501053431810
Date: 2020-05-22 14:41:47 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263842291594063872)
Body: The graph shows a negative correlation between the distance between the price of BTC and $8000 and its move over the following 2 weeks, which means that as BTC diverges from $8k it tends to revert there (the data are from the past 2 years).
Stats: 10 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263842291594063872
Date: 2020-05-22 14:40:58 GMT
Body: Alameda’s trading tends to be really quantitative, and, as you’d expect, we run a lot of internal studies to test theories and optimize our trading strategies. Here’s a fun one someone did today: https://t.co/32EoZbisUn
Stats: 67 likes, 4 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 6 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263210089533411329
Date: 2020-05-20 20:48:49 GMT
Replying to: @cryptocoley (Tweet ID: 1263192505971027969)
Body: @cryptocoley I'm still trying to figure out how to finagle one of @SBF_Alameda's trademark trading setups such that I can use it while lying down https://t.co/RjrBiVyXtK
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263132974104510464
Date: 2020-05-20 15:42:23 GMT
Quoted tweet: @whale_alert: 👤👤👤 40 #BTC (391,055 USD) transferred from possible #Satoshi owned wallet (dormant since 2009) to unknown wallet
ℹ️ The coins in this transaction were mined in the first month of Bitcoin's existence.
Tx: https://t.co/hxDJGGtfF0
Body: Is anyone else now sure that @jk_rowling is Satoshi? https://t.co/diLkzvDYbg
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263069233291726848
Date: 2020-05-20 11:29:06 GMT
Replying to: @cmsholdings (Tweet ID: 1263067142016192512)
Body: @cmsholdings Whoever measured a picture = 1000 words must've been comparing vs. someone else's words.
Stats: 0 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 0 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263054700145831937
Date: 2020-05-20 10:31:21 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263054313930162178)
Body: (And that's not to address that to put on a long BTC futures position on BitMEX requires holding long spot BTC, which is true on some of the other exchanges too but also limits how much certain traders can afford to use the BitMEX products as hedges)
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263054313930162178
Date: 2020-05-20 10:29:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263053782872543232)
Body: And it makes it tougher for traders moving in and out of (often hedged) positions quickly to use BitMEX quarterlies instead of something that will let them put on 2x the position, especially when the discount is so persistent / you don't expect it to revert on you.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263053782872543232
Date: 2020-05-20 10:27:42 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263053219996987394)
Body: This impacts different sorts of traders in different ways -- it makes hedging with large BitMEX positions less appealing to those with natural shorts (via lending/OTC/whatever) because either a) you need more collateral or b) you increase liquidation risk if you fail to top up.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263053219996987394
Date: 2020-05-20 10:25:28 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263052704693153792)
Body: There are a few effects here, but the biggest is likely, again, margin. It varies by what position size you want to put on and what leverage you want to shoot for, but across the board BitMEX requires more collateral to open a similarly-sized position vs. other exchanges.
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263052704693153792
Date: 2020-05-20 10:23:25 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263052234461286401)
Body: Alternately, you might just want to buy the BitMEX Seps because they're cheap (and this raises the question, why is anyone buying up the other Seps to these rich levels instead of just buying cheaper ones on BitMEX?).
Stats: 1 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263052234461286401
Date: 2020-05-20 10:21:33 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263052032316895232)
Body: (It's also possible you expect the spread to close at some point pre-expiration, but that's never really been borne out and BitMEX quarterlies are almost always cheaper, so it's tough to expect >1bp/day from this spread)
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263052032316895232
Date: 2020-05-20 10:20:45 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1263051310124822530)
Body: That comes out to <1bp/day (+/- pending how much you can lever this up) -- but it turns out that tying up margin collateral for both positions (and needing to maintain it when BTC goes up or down to avoid liquidation) makes this not really worth it vs. opportunity cost.
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1263051310124822530
Date: 2020-05-20 10:17:53 GMT
Quoted tweet: @austerity_sucks: There's been a fairly persistent $100 or so discount on the BitMEX September futures on BTCUSD
I guess the 100bp spread is just not worth it?
#bitcoin
https://t.co/D0aOEqOkq5 https://t.co/AGZpMt19q0
Body: There are two possible trades here -- first, buying the Bitmex Seps vs. selling e.g. FTX Seps (any of the rich ones) and locking in 1% if you hold til expiration https://t.co/W6IWQ0Z7us
Stats: 19 likes, 2 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1262765650964930561
Date: 2020-05-19 15:22:46 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1262765611882442752)
Body: Coming up with a satisfying narrative is nice, but sometimes the lesson from a great trading opportunity is just to be ready for the next one, whether or not it has characteristics you’re expecting. 10/10
Stats: 5 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1262765611882442752
Date: 2020-05-19 15:22:37 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1262765568387473410)
Body: It doesn’t really matter why the sales occurred, and predicting them doesn’t make you any money -- bidding on the other side does, whether you thought the chances of your bids getting hit was 100% or .1%. 9/
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1262765568387473410
Date: 2020-05-19 15:22:27 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1262765528243769345)
Body: It’s likely a combo of all these effects (and other idiosyncratic ones). And, of course, *the* trade here was to scoop up the buys on the other side. 8/
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1262765528243769345
Date: 2020-05-19 15:22:17 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1262765471704608770)
Body: Possibly -- BitMEX downtime is always gonna be *the* thing to watch when it happens, so lots of people would have known about the rich bids. But … why not send limit orders to protect against selling the bottom? 7/
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1262765471704608770
Date: 2020-05-19 15:22:04 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1262765409876373506)
Body: Another theory might be the artificially rich bids BitMEX created by *not canceling all their orders* (about 300 BTC was bid rich when trading fully re-opened). Did WAY too many people send market sales (trying to sell against those bids) a bit too late? 6/
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 2 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1262765409876373506
Date: 2020-05-19 15:21:49 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1262765362036092928)
Body: And anyway, the “BitMEX went down” effect on BTC had seemingly already happened -- it fell 1% or so, about what I’d expect, and it recovered basically all the way in the hour afterward. 5/
Stats: 3 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1262765362036092928
Date: 2020-05-19 15:21:38 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1262765183300059137)
Body: Another might be that natural sellers existed during this period and this was their first chance at selling -- but it happened within a few seconds, and, probably, those with setups able to trade that fast have access to other liquidity on other exchanges. 4/
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1262765183300059137
Date: 2020-05-19 15:20:55 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1262765053759025152)
Body: One source might be liquidations -- BTC fell 1% or so during the downtime, and BitMEX processed all the pursuant liquidations at once. But OI only fell by $15m or so, so that’s not all of it. 3/ https://t.co/ICLfgajzCN
Stats: 2 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1262765053759025152
Date: 2020-05-19 15:20:24 GMT
Replying to: @AlamedaTrabucco (Tweet ID: 1262764572894572546)
Body: I've never totally understood how prints like these happen -- 4400 or so BTC worth of the BitMEX BTC perps traded at *crazy* levels (as low as 9400, way below any other market at the time). 2/ https://t.co/F8edCSLNjo
Stats: 4 likes, 0 retweets, 0 quote tweets, 1 replies
Sam Trabucco (@AlamedaTrabucco)
Tweet ID: 1262764572894572546
Date: 2020-05-19 15:18:29 GMT
Body: BitMEX’s downtime is what it is, but what I find more interesting is what happened when it came back up. 1/
Stats: 25 likes, 4 retweets, 1 quote tweets, 1 replies